khandor’s sports blog

When Kris Humphries was strictly a back-up front-court player for the Raptors [i.e. in 2006-2007, 2007-2008 and 2008-2009] … and, then, needlessly traded away in a multi-team package deal to acquire Hedo Turkoglu [i.e. see A and B for further details] … there were very few – if any – other voices in the on-line hoops community extolling his virtues, as a solid future starting-calibre Power Forward in the NBA, if afforded a legitimate opportunity to ply his trade properly. Some 3-5 years later, however …

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Free Agency: Big Names

Who I’d pursue

• Kris Humphries [#3]. How many people heard of him before this? Well, here at the Wages of Wins network, all of us. That’s because he’s been surprisingly productive. Another great value-for-your-dollar player, he could be a great asset to any team, especially one lacking rebounders.

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it is gratifying to see that this corner’s original assessment of Kris Humphries’ actual basketball talent … made well in advance of others – i.e. including both stats gurus [!] and non stats-based NBA observers – was indeed highly accurate, while the vast majority of naysayers, at the time, have now been proven wrong.

The fact is …

While there is little-to-no “competitive advantage” generated by player “evaluations” that are exclusively post facto, based on simple comparative stats analysis, there can be a great deal of “competitive advantage” generated by taking careful note of the specific opinions [i.e. in the form of "evaluations" AND "projections"] offered by someone who legitimately has the ability to make an accurate assessment of a player’s actual basketball ability as much as 3-5 years in advance.

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PS. Cheers, “yertu damkule.”

Approximately 3 years ago, this corner of the blogosphere first identified Kris Humphries – then, a back-up Power Forward for the Toronto Raptors – as someone with the attributes to excel in the NBA, if he would ever be fortunate enough to find himself in the right situation, i.e. with the right head coach and accompanying personnel that are “good fits” with his individual game. 

Kris Humphries, 2011 Game Logs

If memory serves correctly, this was the line-up suggested by yours truly:

STARTERS
PG, Jose Calderon
OG, Anthony Parker
SF, Jamario Moon
PF, Kris Humphries
C, Chris Bosh

KEY SUBS
PG, Roko Ukic
G/F, Joey Graham
PF/C, Pops Mensah-Bonsu

as a solid core group for the future development of the Toronto Raptors.

As the 2010-2011 regular season draws to a close  …

2006 NBA Draft – Rudy Gay, No. 8 Selection, 1st Round [instead of Bargnani-A]

2007 NBA Draft – No Selection

2008 NBA Draft – Roy Hibbert, No. 17 Selection, 1st Round [instead of O'Neal-J]

2009 NBA Draft – Derrick Brown and Marcus Thornton, 2nd Round [instead of DeRozan-D]

2010 NBA Draft – Ed Davis, No. 13 Selection, 1st Round

2011 NBA Draft – ?

it is interesting to think of what “might have been” for the Raptors, since that time, if Bryan Colangelo had the character and the basketball acumen required to build a championship calibre team, in Toronto, one brick at a time …

STARTERS
PG, Jose Calderon
OG, Marcus Thornton
SF, Rudy Gay
PF, Kris Humphries
C, Chris Bosh

KEY SUBS
PG, Roko Ukic
OG, Anthony Parker
SF, Derrick Brown
PF, Ed Davis
C, Roy Hibbert

RESERVES
SF, Jamario Moon
PF/C, Rasho Nesterovic

instead of going for a “roster re-vamp” or a ”home run” each off season.

According to …

The specific take of an NBA Secret Scout

… who was asked to provide his breakdown of the Raptors’ main weaknesses for the coming season.

1. Toronto is one of weakest defensive teams, overall, in the league.

2. They struggle defending Pick & Rolls … i.e. every team’s basic ‘Bread & Butter’ play.

3. Their Guards [i.e. in general, not just Jose Calderon] don’t get “over” screens.

4. Their Bigs don’t “battle” and are “at risk of being split”.

5. They struggle “to defend 1-on-1 in the post”.

6. You must get the ball inside on post-ups or dribble drives.

7. Bargnani, specifically, has trouble containing dribble penetration from wing players when the Raptors go to a “big” line-up [i.e. which refers to any 5-man unit with Bargnani at, either, the PF or the SF position].

8. They are a jump-shooting team that was 6th in 3FG% last year.

9. “Get into them” [i.e. which means "to crowd" their players, A. on the dribble, and B. in close-out situations] in order to prevent uncontested/unharassed comfort jump shots. 

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As difficult as it may be for some many? die-hard Raptors fans to believe … from the perspective of this corner … the specific areas targeted in this video by the ‘NBA Secret Scout’ are precisely what a real life basketball expert actually sees when s/he watches Toronto play on a regular basis, and the truly unfortunate fact is that it’s been this exact same way for the last 3 seasons … as Andrea Bargnani’s individual PT has been steadily increased – i.e. following his rookie season when he first had the good fortune of being able to see only limited floor time, working behind a solid group of 4 other Bigs, who were with the Raptors at that time, including Chris Bosh [#1/C-PF], Jorge Garbajosa [#2/PF-SF], Rasho Nesterovic [#3/C-PF] and Kris Humphries [#5/PF] – and the team, in general, has moved away from using ‘experienced and effective’ wing players who were [at least] adequate [by-and-large] individual defensive players, from a physical, skill-based and cognitive standpoint [e.g. Morris Peterson/SF-OG, Jamario Moon/SF-PF-OG and Anthony Parker/OG-SF-PG].

With last night’s 16th loss of the season …

Toronto Raptors 95
MIAMI HEAT 115
Game Summary

the most important question for the Toronto Raptors is:

Q1. Should this team, as constructed, be expected to improve substantially over the course of the next 55 games, or not?

A1. Well …

PART ONE

This is what the Eastern Conference standings look like today:

PART TWO

As of Fri Dec 11 2009, this is what the Strength Of Schedule [SOS] looked like for the teams in the East:

PART THREE

Looking at the injury situation for the Raptors and the other teams around them in the standings:

PART FOUR

For all practical intents and purposes:

PART FIVE

As has been said in this corner, since the 2009 NBA Draft took place …

when the Raptors chose not to trade down from the No. 9 position [overall], in an effort to re-invigorate their squad with:

* An additional NBA-calibre player obtained in a trade down

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, which could have been used to acquire an in-coming player like Brandon Jennings, or Terrence Williams, or Earl Clark, or Rodrigue Beaubois, or Taj Gibson

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have bought with their $3.0 M ‘draft voucher’ obtained in their trade with the Miami Heat, which they could have used to acquire a player like Taj Gibson, or DeJuan Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Sam Young, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

or

The upper 2nd Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, if a lower 1st Round Pick was not available, with which they could have acquired an in-coming player like DeJaun Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

and the decisons were made by Bryan Colangelo:

1 To not re-sign Shawn Marion for the dollar amount required to retain his services;

2 To not re-sign their own unrestricted free agents [i.e. Anthony Parker and Joey Graham];

3 To sign Jay Triano [then, interim head coach] to a 3-yr contract extension;

4 To complete the series of trades which then ensued with Orlando, Dallas, Golden State and Milwaukee, in effect, exchanging the following players on the team’s 2008-2009 roster with their corresponding counterparts [i.e. coded by colour] on the current version:

… that actually did little overall to substantially improve the Quality Depth on their team, despite what the fanbase was originally led to believe by the Raptors’ Management Team and assorted NBA “observers” who extolled the influx of supposed “talent” associated with these new additions to the roster …

this year’s Raptors team is no better than a number of other middle-of-the- pack outfits in the Eastern Conference and, in fact, should be expected to struggle to make the playoffs this season.

Those who thought/think that this edition of the Toronto Raptors has UNDER-ACHIEVED, to this point, this season …

were/are fundamentally INCORRECT.

This is precisely WHO and WHAT the Raptors are, and approximately WHERE the 2009-2010 version of their team SHOULD BE expected to finish this season, based on the personnel [i.e. players and coaches] on its roster.

Following last night’s deflating home loss to the Atlanta Hawks, the conference standings in the East look like this:

Prior to the 2009 NBA Draft, however, these were some of the players who were recommended in this space for the Toronto Raptors:

Terrence Williams [OG-SF, New Jersey, 1st Rd]
Earl Clark [SF-PF, Phoenix, 1st Rd]
Derrick Brown [SF-PF, Charlotte, 2nd Rd]
Taj Gibson [PF, Chicago, 1st Rd]
Dante Cunningham [PF, Portland, 2nd Rd]
Marcus Thornton [OG, New Orleans, via Miami, 2nd Rd]
Nando De Colo [OG-SF, San Antonio, 2nd Rd]

Prior to the 4-team trade that involved the Raptors, Magic, Mavericks and Grizzlies, it was also suggested here that Toronto should:

If the Raptors would have followed those recommendations, instead of:

culminating with a roster that looks like the middle column in the following chart:

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Yours truly thinks they would.

It’s by developing and then implementing a sound Basketball Philosophy … which emphasizes the importance of [I] Team Defense, [II] Rebounding, and [III] Shared Team Offense, in this order … maintaining general roster stability, from one season to the next, while acquiring Quality Depth, and obtaining the services of an experienced and successful NBA head coach, that the Raptors would be able to fundamentally alter the direction of their franchise and construct the type of championship-calibre organization which UFA’s like Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Dwyane Wade, and LeBron James, etc., would willingly CHOOSE to play for, if they have their druthers, either, this coming off season or further down-the-road.

Last season the Raptors finished 4th in the Atlantic Division and 13th, overall, in the Eastern Conference [i.e. 33-49/402].

Offensively, they scored 99.0 Points Per Game [16th in the NBA].
Defensively, they allowed 101.9 Points Per Game [20th in the NBA].
In terms of Points Scored Differential, they finished with a Per Game mark of -2.9 [23rd in the NBA].  
In terms of Rebounding Differential, they finished with a Per Game mark of -1.5 [22nd in the NBA].

Thus far, this season, Toronto is:

* 2nd in the Atlantic Division and 10th, overall, in the Eastern Conference [i.e. 7-11/.389];

* 4th in Points Scored Per Game [104.9]

* 29th in Points Allowed Per Game [109.4]

* 23rd in Points Scored Differential Per Game [-4.4]

* 20th in Rebounding Differential Per Game [-0.4] 

How much is the roster really improved for the 2009-2010 Toronto Raptors, compared with the 2008-2009 version?

The main problem the Raptors have right now is rooted in the Basketball Philosophy of its Management Team which continues to place far too much emphasis on the Individual Offensive ability of specific players and not nearly enough emphasis on those same players’ Individual Defensive ability.

Until the Raptors add more multi-dimensional players to their roster with the ability to defend their position[s] effectively AND reward those players with additional playing time during important parts of games, Toronto will continue to be little more than a high scoring [entertaining?] Treadmill Team.

There are many subtlties involved in developing an accurate description of a solid but unspectacular player who has a valuable role to play for a good-very good team-great team in an environment like the NBA which the “average fan” has considerable difficulty trying to understand properly.

Case in point:

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Exhibit A

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… who was never truly appreciated in Raptorville for what he brings to the table in the NBA, as a player that:

- was not the most useful return possible in the Rafael Araujo trade
- was overpaid paid unnecessarily during the last 2 seasons, given the derth of actual burn he got from the Raptors’ coaching staffs
- was a whole lot more effective than Andrea Bargnani, by comparison, at the #4/PF position, as a complementary “Back-up” front-court running mate when “starting” beside Chris Bosh [C]

Training Camp Report: Day Two, Humphries Turns Heads
The Mavericks feel that their off-season trades and signings addressed their defensive deficiencies prior to this season. Now Dallas is focused on bringing the new Mavs up to speed with the returning players to build a cohesive defensive unit.

An unheralded player, who is turning heads early in camp and providing defensive help in the interior, is Kris Humphries.

“(Humphries) has really impressed me. He’s a physical force inside, but he has outside touch. He has a high basketball I.Q., so he’s been a surprise,” Terry said.

The five-year veteran, who came to the Mavs in the four-team trade that delivered Shawn Marion, is looking to prove he is more than just an add-on. The 6-foot-9, 235-pounder could provide Dallas with a physical presence after the departure of Brandon Bass.

“He’s been extremely consistent,” Carlisle said of Humphries early in camp. “He’s a physical kid and an underrated player. He had a strong summer and he picks things up very quickly. He’s a guy that knows his game, and he knows how to be effective down there.”

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By no means should K-Hump ever be confused with a “star” NBA player. However, the manner in which he was used, and mis-used, by the Raptors during his time in Toronto should be considered as the working [pictoral?] definition for what,

“A Wasted Opportunity To Make Something Substantial … Basically From Nothing … Actually Looks Like In The NBA,  Regarding A Highly Serviceable Role Player.”

If the Mavs finally make the decision to use Dirk Nowitzki as their primary Center this season … primarily to give Shawn Marion and Josh Howard the amount of PT their skill-sets warrant, as bookend Forwards [i.e. #4/PF and #3/SF, respectively] in an under-sized but very athletic line-up … it should come as no surprise, whatsoever, at least, to astute NBA observers, if K-Hump steps up to grab the available MP at the #4/PF position [over Drew Gooden], given the recent departure of Brandon Bass [PF, Orlando, UFA].

Operating beside, either, [A] Dirk, or [B] Dampier, Kris Humphries will be a good fit for Dallas this year, given his [i] physical toughness, [ii] ability to Rebound & Defend the #4/PF position, [iii] run the floor in transition and [iv] score the ball in bunches, working under a solid head coach like Rick Carlisle.
Related:

Humphries pushing for larger role with Dalla Mavericks

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

The first back-2-back of the season for the Raptors will be a difficult one to win. In general, whichever team gets the best player in a NBA trade will eventually be seen as “the winner” in that specific transaction. In this instance, Dallas won the 4-team player swap of the summer by acquiring Shawn Marion, who is a flat-out better player than Hedo Turkoglu. Shifting Dirk Nowitzki to the Center position this season will present the Mavericks with their best possible 5-Man Unit, allowing Josh Howard and The Matrix to co-exist as interchangeable #3/SF-#4/PF’s, in an under-sized line-up that is going to be very difficult for opponents to match-up against, given their ability to rebound ball with their superior athleticism. Rookie PG, Rodrigue Beaubois has the makings of a future “star” in the NBA, and it will be very interesting to see whether or not the Mavs choose to integrate him into their line-up this season with J-Kidd, Jason Terry and JJ Barea still on their roster. The Mavs are going to be a very good team this season and a tough out in the WC playoffs.

Game 6– @ Dallas [Sat Nov 07]

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 2-4

The 5 teams in the Atlantic Division finished in the following order last season:

1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756, 2nd East, Lost 2nd Round 
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500, 6th East, Lost 1st Round  
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415, 3rd East, Missed Playoffs
4. Toronto Raptors, 33-49/.402, 13th East, Missed Playoffs
5. New York Knicks, 32-50/.390, 14th East, Missed Playoffs

At this point in the off season, the teams have made the following player personnel changes:

BOSTON CELTICS
Significant Losses
1. Leon Powe [PF], UFA
2. Mikki Moore [PF-C], UFA
3. Stephon Marbury [PG]
4. Gabe Pruitt [PG-OG]

Significant Adds
1. Lester Hudson/2nd Round Draft Pick [No. 58, overall]
2. Rasheed Wallace, UFA
3. Sheldon Williams, UFA
4. Marquis Daniels, UFA

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Significant Losses
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. Andre Miller [PG], UFA
3. Theo Ratliff [PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Elton Brand [PF], returns from injury
2. Jason Smith [PF-C], returns from injury
3. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
4. Jrue Holiday [PG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 19, overall]  
5. Rodney Carney [SF], UFA

NEW JERSEY NETS
Significant Losses
1. Vince Carter [SF-OG], trade
2. Ryan Anderson [PF], trade

Significant Adds
1. Terrence Williams [SF-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 11, overall]
2. Courtney Lee [OG], trade
3. Rafer Alston [PG], trade
4. Tony Battie [PF-C], trade

TORONTO RAPTORS
Significant Losses
1. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
2. Shawn Marion [PF-SF], UFA/Sign & trade
3. Kris Humphries [PF], trade
4. Nathan Jawai [PF-C], trade
5. Anthony Parker [OG-SF-PG], UFA
6. Joey Graham [SF], UFA
7. Roko Ukic [PG], trade
8. Carlos Delfino [SF-OG], trade

Significant Adds
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 9, overall]
3. Hedo Turkoglu [SF], Sign & trade
4. Antoine Wright [SF-OG], trade
5. Jarrett Jack [PG-OG], RFA
6. Marco Belinelli [OG-SF-PG], trade
7. Rasho Nesterovic [C-PF], UFA
8. Amir Johnson [PF], trade 

NEW YORK KNICKS
Significant Losses
1. Quentin Richardson [SF-OG], trade
2. Chris Wilcox, PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Danilo Gallinari [SF-PF], returns from injury
2. Jordan Hill [PF-C], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 8, overall]
3. Toney Douglas [PG-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 29, overall]
4. Darko Milicic [PF-C], trade
5. Sun Yue [PG], UFA

While several NBA observers seem to think the Raptors SHOULD be much improved this coming season, based on the wholesale changes made to their roster … this corner does not necessarily share that same opinion, when evaluated against the LOSSESS & ADDS of the other teams in their Division.

Q1. Have the Raptors improved, overall, from last season, relative to their competition?

A1. Maybe; maybe not … is the correct answer, at this point.

The Knicks and Nets are in re-building mode, and the Raptors SHOULD have been expected to finish this coming season in NO WORSE than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Celtics and, possibly, the 76ers … even if they would have done “nothing” substantive to improve their team this summer.

However, given that doing “nothing” was in fact the OPPOSITE of what the Raptors decided to do this off season … i.e. see above … it SHOULD now be EXPECTED that this supposedly improved team SHOULD finish NO WORSE than in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Celtics.

Once this expectation is established, what then becomes interesting is …

if the divisional standings eventually look something like this:

ATLANTIC
1 Boston
2 Toronto or Philadelphia
3 Philadelphia or Toronto
4 New York or New Jersey
5 New Jersey or New York

and the conference standings eventually look something like this:

SOUTHEAST
1 Orlando
2 Atlanta or Miami or Washington
3 Miami Atlanto or Washington
4 Washington or Atlanta or Miami
5 Charlotte

CENTRAL
1 Cleveland
2 Detroit or Chicago or Indiana
3 Chicago or Detroit or Indiana
4 Indiana or Detroit or Chicago
5 Milwaukee

and the playoff race eventually looks something like this:

Eastern Conference
1-2-3 Orlando – High End, Southeast
1-2-3 Cleveland – High End, Central
1-2-3 Boston – High End, Atlantic

4-5-6 Atlanta – Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Miami – Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Washington – Upper Middle, Southeast

7-8-9-10-11-12 Detroit – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Chicago – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Indiana – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Toronto – Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Philadelphia – Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Charlotte – Low End, Southwest

12-13-14-15 Milwaukee – Low End, Central
12-13-14-15 New York – Low End, Atlantic
12-13-14-15 New Jersey – Low End, Atlantic

indicating, perhaps, that the relative strength of each division may be shifting this season:

#1. Southeast
#2. Central
#3. Atlantic 

IF a scenario like this is eventually what plays out this season, then, how much will the Raptors really have improved this summer, relative to the other teams in their Division and the Eastern Conference, as a whole?

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OPTION 1 is the Raptors current roster.

OPTION 2 is the roster which the team could/should have today … if it would have followed the advice of yours truly, and a GM like Joe Dumars, who has already won 3 NBA Championships …

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JD: When we had cap space maybe eight years ago, we made a decision then – there was a question back then about going out and trying to sign one big name with that money. We made a decision back then that we wanted to come out of that free agency with multiple players. We made the same decision this year – we’re not going to go out and sign one max player and then tout that we’ve had a great off-season. As we entered the summer, we were not one max player away from being a contender, so it made no sense to go out and target one guy. We wanted to come out of this free agency with a minimum of three guys and we’ve done that with Wilcox, with Villanueva, with Ben Gordon, and to be in a position financially to also sign a veteran big like we wanted to, to also have Ben Wallace, as well. To come out of it with three or four players, that’s what we wanted to do in the first place. We believe talent in numbers wins. That’s what we’re going to continue to try to do.
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… during the last 15 months, regarding:

* The trade for Jermaine O’Neal & Nathan Jawai last summer … i.e. DON’T DO IT;

* The trade for Shawn Marion & Marcus Banks this past season … i.e. DON’T DO IT; and,

* The sign & trade for Hedo Turkoglu, Antoine Wright & Devean George this summer … i.e. DON’T DO IT;

in conjunction with:

* The proposed trade of TJ Ford last summer [i.e. acquiring Rodney Carney]; 

* The selection of Chris Douglas-Roberts [No. 17, overall] in the 2008 NBA Draft … which would have precluded the signing of Will Solomon;

and, certain other personnel moves which actually have been made during this same time period that were NOT disastrous, according to this corner, including:

* The trade for a future 2nd Round draft pick last season … which got rid of Hassan Adams; 

* The signing of Quincy Douby last season;

* The trade for Reggie Evans this summer … which got rid of Jason Kapono;

* The selection of DeMar DeRozan [No. 9, overall] in the 2009 NBA Draft Pick;

* The signing of Jarrett Jack [i.e. as an UFA] this summer;

* The signing of Rasho Nesterovic [i.e. as an UFA] this summer; and,

* The trade for Amir Johnson … which got rid of Roko Ukic & Carlos Delfino.

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The major problem with the Raptors has not been a dirth of solid secondary personnel moves but, rather, the team’s repeated attempts to SPEED UP the development process, by making BIG “Swing For Fences” MOVES … seemingly without a comprehensive, well-coordinated, long term plan Plan Of Attack … in an effort to become a contending team TOO SOON, which inevitably result in self-inflicted wounds, that retard legitimate progress and waste the opportunities at-hand for gradual, sustained growth into one of the best franchises in the NBA.

PS. When you compare these two rosters there should be NO DOUBT, whatsoever, as to which one has the greater number of high calibre, athletic, young players that could have formed the basis of a quality team in Toronto for the next decade.