khandor’s sports blog

This is what was written in this same space on May 25, 2011, concerning the future plight of the Los Angeles Lakers:

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Lakers going in WRONG direction, if Mike Brown is their next head coach

Mike Brown has already demonstrated that he is nothing like his one-time mentor, Gregg Popovich … or, Doc Rivers … or, Rick Adelman … or, Rick Carlisle … or, the as yet, untested Brian Shaw.

Mike Brown is most definitely nothing like the ZenMaster, Phil Jackson.

Mike Brown is someone who has been incapable of exercising the required “level of control” over a superstar player – like LeBron James [in Cleveland] or Kobe Bryant [in LA] – and lacks the type of “wholly integrated system of play” which is necessary to achieve major success in the NBA.

Mike Brown is a good defensive coach. Period.

Mike Brown is not someone who will improve the Lakers’ chances of the winning the NBA title next season, or anytime soon.

The Lakers’ major problems this year had nothing to do with their defensive systems of play … and everything to do with:

i. Their overall lack of talent, in comparison with previous editions of their team;

ii. The poor play of Derek Fisher and Steve Blake;

iii. Their lack of Team Cohesion;

and,

iv. Their overall lack of offensive discipline.

Mike Brown is not the right man to effectively address the Lakers’ specific needs.

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This is what the current standings look like in the NBA.

These are the lowlights of last night’s game between the Lakers and the Wizards:

The following is one example of what is being said elsewhere in the blogosphere today about the Lakers’ current plight with Mike Brown at the helm of their listing ship:

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With Kobe Bryant firing away, Pau Gasol addresses Lakers’ ‘selfishness’

We hold the Lakers up for a more strident brand of criticism because, frankly, they’re smarter than most teams. And they lost on Wednesday to perhaps the least-cerebral NBA team we’ve seen in decades of watching the game. Kobe Bryant watches more tape than any player in this league. Pau Gasol knows this game (literally and figuratively) inside and out. Mike Brown is absolutely obsessed with going over film and finding statistical quirks to take advantage of.

Actually, there are several reasons. And though we can point to Kobe firing away on Twitter all night, this comes down to coach Mike Brown actually attempting to stand up to his star player. Something he was clearly incapable of doing in Cleveland with LeBron James, and something he’s failing miserably at in Los Angeles.

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When trying to understand properly what exactly is going on with the Lakers, so far this season, it’s important to place both Mike Brown and the players on their roster in the proper perspective.

1. The Lakers still have more than enough talent on their roster to win the Pacific Division this season:

Anticipated Lakers’ demise, simple case of ‘wishful thinking’

2. Mike Brown is far from being properly described as a terrible basketball coach.

What Mike Brown is … is a terrific defensive coach who, at this point in his career, is wholly incapable of coaching a star player like Kobe Bryant the way he actually needs to be coached … i.e. with the highest degree of personal discipline and responsibility possible … on a daily basis – in conjunction with other far less-talented but, nevertheless, still elite level players like Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Metta World Peace, Troy Murphy, Josh McRoberts, Matt Barnes, Steve Blake, Derek Fisher, Luke Walton, Devin Ebanks, Darius Morris and Andrew Goudelock – in order to win a NBA Championship.

The first-year of Jim Buss’ organizational leadership for the Lakers continues to unfold in a most fascinating way.

Those expecting the Lakers to take a precipitous tumble in the Western Conference standings this season … in the aftermath of “whiffing” on a trade for Chris Paul [PG] and then sending Lamar Odom [SF/PF] to Dallas … do not have an accurate understanding of just how good Devin Ebanks [SF, 2nd-yr] is most likely going to be for their team this year.

Once Andrew Bynum’s suspension finishes and Kobe’s wrist injury fully heals, the following line-up for the Lakers:

STARTERS
Derek Fisher + Kobe Bryant + Devin Ebanks + Pau Gasol + Andrew Bynum

KEY SUBS
Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, Metta World Peace, Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy

RESERVES
Jason Kapono and Luke Walton

EXTRAS
Darius Morris, Andrew Goudelock and Derrick Caracter [inj.]

is still going to be formidable … as the bolded players above are actually much better than many so-called [but really illegitimate] NBA observers realize.

After the Lakers eventually use their large Traded Player Exception – obtained in exchange for Mr. Odom – it should come as no surprise at all to see this team finish with the best W-L record in the Pacific Division, once again.

Mitch Kupchak [GM] has already proven that he knows how to construct a top flight NBA team … as long as Jim Buss is able to stay out of the way.

Update:

For the benefit of those who might need some further clarification, here’s the follow-up comment which yours truly left a few minutes ago, in a related thread at PBT …

Devin Ebanks [i.e. think of a better, more physical, version of Trevor Ariza] and Darius Morris [i.e. think of a young, poor man's version of Tony Parker] are both very solid young players with the ability to make positive contributions to this year’s Lakers team which desperately needed an infusion of youth on the heels of last season’s disappointing end. Josh McRoberts is the type of banger who Mike Brown has made very effective use of in the past [i.e. think of a more athletic version of Anderson Varejao]. Troy Murphy [PF] playing beside either Andrew Bynum or Gasol is going to be a very potent player [i.e. think of the double-double machine who was a former starter for the Pacers]. Once the Lakers decide to use their TPE … and it doesn’t need to be in regards to acquiring a stud like Dwight Howard [C] … their roster is still going to be formidable for the Western Conference Playoffs, as long as they are healthy. Although they won’t play the type of artistically pleasing basketball they did under the direction of Dr. Phil, they will still be a highly effective team, under the capable direction of a defensive-minded head coach like Mike Brown. Those expecting a rapid Lakers’ demise this season will most likely be quite disappointed by season’s end.

Unfortunately, every once in awhile, someone in the on-line hoops community will attempt to assert that the best basketball player on the planet earth today is someone other than Kobe Bean Bryant, based on some type of logical, or statistical-based, evidence.

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When “counting the rings” goes wrong

At this point in time, there is no clear-cut way to determine if Player X is better than Player Y. Some may rely on PER, others will rely on the eye test, and the vast majority will count the rings.

As with any argument, though, there is a golden rule that should be followed to a tee: if you’re going to use it in debate, at least be consistent.

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Main reason average basketball observers cannot properly evaluate who the best players actually are, at a given point in time, however, is because they are incapable of making an accurate assessment of the array of inter-related basketball skills [i.e. both, "hard" and "soft"] that actually need to be considered when making a judgment about the quality of a specific player in relation to the abilities of his/her peers.

What you see below is a brief sample of the myriad “basketball skills” which SHOULD be used to develop an accurate appraisal of a specific player’s actual ability, relative to his peers:

If you complete this simple evaluation form for any current player in the NBA … using whatever specific measuring tools you prefer for each individual category … according to the position he plays, and then compare his overall score to the same evaluation form you also complete for Mr. Bryant, you should be able to see for yourself that the LA Lakers’ No. 24 is still, actually, “The best basketball player on this planet.”

What today’s TrueHoop article REALLY means …

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The moment the talks fell apart

“System changes”

There’s another thing that could be happening, too.

Remember The Decision? That night in July 2010, something happened that angered basketball fans like nothing else. It can be framed as LeBron James being egotistical, or cowardly, or whatever else. But it can also be framed as a young black man just being sick of doing what old white guys tell him to do.

There was a playbook for free agency, a procedure, some decorum. And James tossed it. No, after earning Dan Gilbert the sun, the moon and the stars, he does not also owe him a phone call. No, he doesn’t have to let some other, whiter, older entity control the production of his announcement. No, he doesn’t have to stick to the storyline of local hero, or even player. He really does have the power to play GM, to assemble a super team, and that’s what he would do.

The message to a lot of fans was that James just got it all wrong. But the message to a lot of players was that James did what 1,000 players have been dreaming of doing for years — he acted fully empowered — and it’s hard to say he failed at it. He made his millions, and the Finals. His team is intact. His business life is sound. He’ll be contending for championships for years.

It’s a business revolution with young black men, basketball players, in the corner offices. A new way of doing things, long overdue, and happening now.

And maybe that’s what Stern encountered in that hotel room in New York: a new generation of fully empowered players who no longer believe they have to conform to much of anything.

Just three days earlier, with James in attendance, James’ teammate Dwyane Wade had yelled at David Stern. “You’re not pointing your finger at me,” Wade said, sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Ric Bucher. “I’m not your child.”

On Friday, a role player for a middling team got a surprise phone call, from just about the biggest name in the sport — somebody who had never called him before. The message: Hold firm at 53. We’re not caving. Hang in there. It wasn’t the only call of its kind, and when you talk to players now there is religious fervor, around the number 53, and around not giving owners any freebies on the other issues.

Owners are indignant that they have endured dreadful losses that must be righted. Players, meanwhile, are indignant that compared to the old CBA every concession to date has come from them. The issues are sounding more religious than ever, and it’s doubtful that, at the moment, anyway, either Hunter or Stern is capable of rallying his followers to build a bridge to the other side.

And if it’s driven by players’ blossoming and deep-rooted self-determination, then they can’t be expected to budge. I just hope, for the NBA’s sake, that they chose the correct line to draw in the sand.

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is that there will probably be no 2011-2012 NBA season with each side involved in the current lockout unprepared to meet the other at the halfway point between 47.0% [i.e. the NBA owners' best offer] and 53.0% [i.e. the NBAPA's minimum requirement], in terms of Basketball Related Income [BRI].

FYI …

re: Basketball on Paper WAR and the Best Peak Regular-Season Players Since 1978

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Comment #45
khandor Says:
August 1st, 2011 at 11:29 am

re: “Also the #1, #3, and #8 seasons are all from the ’80s. They belong to Jordan, but they took place in the ’80s.”

When MJ was at his most prolific level of statistical production, as an individual player, the teams he played on were incapable of winning the League Championship. Hmmm … However, as he then began to develop a more mature/sophisticated understanding of “How the game of basketball is actually supposed to be played, at its highest level of competition”, he produced individual stats which were less prolific AND the teams he played on were then able to capture multiple League Championships. Hmmm … Likewise, other all-time great players like Bill Russell, Magic Johnson, and Larry Bird are only found further down the stat charts which purport to measure accurately the “individual ability” of an individual basketball player who, by definition, functions exclusively within a “team” environment comprised of 3 main phases [i.e. Offense, Defense and Rebounding]. Hmmm … It continually amazes that so many seemingly intelligent people spend copious amounts of time looking in the wrong direction when trying to identify correctly those who rightfully qualify as being amongst the legitimate group of GOATs. In no particular order … What determines an individual player’s ability to play the game properly are relatively innocuous things like Assists, Rebounds, Assists/Turnovers, Steals, Deflections/Tips, Blocked Shots, Successful Helps & Rotations, Penetrations [i.e. allowed & made], Appropriate Cuts & Floor Spacing, Screen & Pick execution [i.e. setting & evading], Conditioning, Energy [i.e. positive, neutral, or negative], Team Spirit, and Competitive Greatness … the group of which cannot yet be found in a single reliable metric, TTBOMK. Conversely, examining “Just how far above the production level of an ‘average’ player someone is,” would appear to be little more than a giant waste of resources … at least, when it comes to increasing the current level of understanding for what’s actually required to win the League Championship. In the end, isn’t THAT really what the game is all about?

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In general, Neil Paine does a terrific job running the Basketball-reference.com blog.

Although this specific clip might be the first time Larry Brown Sports is featuring a video of a noteworthy NBA player displaying his prodigious soccer skills:

it should not be viewed as a “first-time” experience for sports blogs, in general:

vs

Exhibit A

Exhibit B

“The Beautiful Game” has long been considered a legitimate training ground for erstwhile aspirants of “The Hard-court Version.”

According to Dennis Velasco …

The 10 best shooting guards of the last three decades

OTOH …

According to yours truly, the 10 players in this specific list should actually be ranked in the following order:

1. Michael Jordan;

2. Kobe Bryant;

3. Clyde Drexler;

4. Dwyane Wade;

5. Joe Dumars [NOTE: Should actually be considered only as a Combo Guard];

6. Manu Ginobili;

7. Ray Allen;

8. Reggie Miller;

9. Tracy McGrady; and,

10. Mitch Richmond;

as elite level basketball players … if one is going to evaluate them properly, as Off Guards, while considering ALL relevant aspects of the game.

Related:

Joe Dumars ranked the 9th best shooting guard of the last 30 years

A prime example of first-class work by Henry Abbott:

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Kobe Bryant vs crunch time statistics: A debate

MARK

Henry,

So, without all those “soul-crushing misses,” the Lakers would have won 12 titles since 2000 and not merely five?

First, I should note I’m not Kobe’s PR guy. If you ask Kobe, he’d tell you I’m more the reason he needs his own PR guys and such a long list of them, which I have already published.

You’re absolutely right. There were a lot of people from Jerry Buss to Gary Vitti who had to do their job.

On the other hand, there’s a clear hierarchy among the soldiers, with generals like Kobe and Shaq, and colonels like Pau, Andrew, Lamar and, on my list, Derek Fisher, Robert Horry and Rick Fox, too.

Shaq, Pau, Lamar, Drew et al. had to get Kobe to crunch time, close enough to make a difference.

As you note, their job was made all the harder by Kobe, whose contribution was impressive but mixed, with all the dizzy shots he took and the open teammates he missed.

Nevertheless, in crunch time, the ball was his and his alone.

It couldn’t go to Shaq, who would be quickly put on the line, where he might hurt someone.

It was never Pau, Lamar or Drew, whose names didn’t occur to Phil Jackson in those circumstances.

In the last 12 seasons, the Lakers appeared in seven Finals (to next-best San Antonio’s four), winning five titles (to the Spurs’ four).

That required a lot of playoff wins, many of which were close with the ball going through Kobe at the end of all of them.

The Lakers went 118-63.

If the bottom line is a clumsy metric, with the anecdotal evidence that goes with it, I prefer it to a finely-tuned statistic that says shooting percentage in stipulated circumstances means someone else is more clutch, even if the games they win aren’t as big as the ones Kobe’s teams won, by definition.

(The closest anyone came to the Lakers’ 118 playoff wins over 12 years is San Antonio at 88-62.)

The Lakers weren’t like the Spurs, who could go through Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan or Tony Parker.

If some other Laker was winning those games, we’d have noticed (I think).

I’m not arguing this for Kobe. I’m arguing it the way I’d argue the sun rises in the East.

Bottom line, no one gets to be a great player without being clutch.

Some are more clutch than others.

If they’re good in every other way, but that’s missing in your game, you can be Scottie or Iggy but they can’t ever be AI or MJ.

If you have it all, but haven’t been able to do it the last two seasons, you can be Bron.

If you’ve got that, and just led the league in “clutch shooting percentage” by the old (dumb) definition — last five minutes with the teams within five points — but don’t defend or rebound and have won two playoff series in your entire career, you can be Melo.

I was impressed by Alok Pattani’s analysis, first and foremost because it went back and included MJ, whom we had better be able to agree was a clutch player, or what’s the point?

However, why is shooting percentage the standard?

Would you rather have Kobe’s seven in 25 attempts than Tayshaun’s three-of-five?

Aren’t we leaving out free throws drawn and converted, traditionally the way superstars always prevailed?

How about passes for assists? Kobe has some of those, too (lob to Shaq vs. Indy) although not as many as Mike.

With all the conclusions being thrown around like anvils from modern hoop “analytics,” I think we need to talk a lot more about the assumptions going into them.

First, there’s a general question of whether it works as well in basketball as baseball, where Bill James et al. changed the way the game was played (taking pitches, tiring pitchers, giving them a chance to fall behind in the count, etc.).

Basketball is fluid, zero-sum and, I would argue, less susceptible to being broken down mathematically.

Baseball had a valid mathematical assumption: each base you reach, on the way to the plate, has value.

I’m not sure you can assume that any number in basketball except the raw, obvious ones (points, shooting percentage, rebounds, etc.) is that fundamental.

Analytics lean heavily on efficiency statistics (per minute, per possession).

Not that they mean nothing but who says efficiency is as important as the raw total?

There’s an old NBA fallacy about per-minute production.

On one hand, it’s how you notice a player is doing a lot in limited time.

On the other, it often turns out that if you start someone like Leon Powe, who has been getting eight rebounds in 17 minutes against the other team’s reserves, he’ll get eight rebounds in 34 minutes.

Of course, if your assumptions are wrong, or arguable, it’s more like numerology than analysis.

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FWIW …

Yours truly – in this instance, and despite acknowledging the truthfulness of at least some of the valid points which Henry raises, as well – is firmly in Mark’s corner.

Kudos to both men for providing this wonderful exchange of ideas!

This is all you really need to know about the current situation with the LA Lakers:

1. What Jerry Buss didn’t say [Dec 21, 2009]

If Jim and Jerry Buss want my advice – and I’m pretty sure they don’t – they can save themselves a lot of grief and messy embarrassment if they’ll just sit back and chill, and let Phil and Jeanie take over. – Roland Lazenby

2. LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Mike Brown, Phil Jackson, Chris Bosh, The Redeem Team, and the Handling of NBA Superstars

3. Phil Jackson’s Final Interview with the LA media [May 11, 2011]

- Especially what Jackson says about his “connection” to those in management positions with the team today, at @ the 19:00 mark of the video clip

4. Lakers issue statement on Mike Brown [May 25, 2011]

5. Lakers should’ve consulted Kobe on Brown hire [May 26, 2011] 

For Bryant, there was never time to consider Brown’s candidacy as Lakers coach because sources close to him say that he was never asked about the candidates to replace Phil Jackson. The Buss family promised they would proceed this way, without the consultation of the most important person in the franchise.

These are partnerships in the NBA, and Bryant, with five championships, should’ve been part of the process. Bryant didn’t deserve the chance to choose the next coach, nor did he have the inclination. In the end, such an arrangement makes for an impossible dynamic between an indebted coach and a star player.

Still, Bryant happens to be one of the sharpest basketball minds in the NBA, an ability to see the game in its most overt and subtle ways. So why wouldn’t you want Bryant’s input? Why wouldn’t you want to lay out to him the plan and vision of returning Bryant and these Lakers to championship basketball?

Mostly, Lakers vice president Jim Buss had a habit of exacerbating Jackson, and he’ll regret it should that be the basis of his relationship with Bryant now.

The San Antonio Spurs wouldn’t hire a coach without discussing names with Tim Duncan. Steve Nash gets immense input – probably too much – with the Phoenix Suns. Those two aren’t twentysomething’s at the apex, but they should still be afforded the chance to have names pushed past them. Bryant? The Lakers can still win titles with him. He’s no ceremonial franchise player. All they had to do was say, “Hey, what’s our feeling on Rick Adelman? Mike Brown? We’re balancing these strengths and weaknesses. What do you think?”

Jim Buss is running the Lakers now, and this is a frightening proposition for everyone.

In the immediate aftermath of the 2010 NBA Draft Lottery, yours truly identified Gordon Hayward [6-8, 207] … 

It’s important to be perfectly clear about one thing … [Jun 25 2011]

as someone who would eventually be considered one of the very best selections made that night.

Although it has taken him almost 9 months to get comfortable in the NBA environment, Mr. Hayward’s performance last night … against no-less an opponent than Kobe Bryant & Co.:

Utah Jazz 86
Los Angeles Lakers 85
Complete Game Summary

… portends very well for his future development as a “star” player in the league, if he is afforded the opportunity to perform at the Off Guard position, on a consistent basis.

Player Data for Gordon Hayward at basketballvalue.com

As was written in this space earlier this season …

Correct solution for the Jazz’s current problem [Mar 3 2011]

when the Jazz threw away a highly winnable home game against the Boston Celtics, by refusing to allow Hayward to close it out, while working at the OG position against Ray Allen, in lieue of Raja Bell [i.e. a veteran in steep decline] …

Gordon Hayward has the skill-set to be a terrific, multi-purpose, “Big #2/OG”, for the next 10-15 years …

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Hayward’s shining moment

It was easily the best performance of Hayward’s up-and-down first season that’s included 21 games in which he played and didn’t score. He struggled to learn the offense at first, to the frustration of coach Jerry Sloan and point guard Deron Williams. (Hard to believe that 67 games into his career Hayward is still with the Jazz and Sloan and Williams are gone.) With the Jazz out of the playoff race, new coach Tyrone Corbin has granted Hayward more playing time of late and Hayward has produced four double-digit scoring nights in his past six games.

“It’s getting there,” Hayward said. “Little by little. There’s times when you’re still over-pressing a little bit, but when you’re just aggressive it’s better.”

He held his ground against Bryant, who seemed intent on breaking the rookie into NBA life.

“I think so, a little bit,” Hayward said. “He elbowed me in the second half, and I gave him an elbow in the fourth quarter. We were going at it, competing. It was fun because you grow up watching Kobe doing his thing against everyone else and now you’re kind of out there as a competitor just trying to play as hard as you can against him.”

And that’s what prompted the West comparison — in personality, not performance. He wasn’t that good.

“He’s a humble guy,” Watson said. “At the same time when he gets on the court he’s not going to back down from anybody.”

Bryant said he was “very, very fond” of Hayward.

“He’s a very skilled, all-around player,” Bryant said. “I think he’s going to have a very bright future in this league. He reminds me of a more talented Jeff Hornacek. Jeff couldn’t put the ball on the floor as well as he can.”

Phil Jackson, who rarely even acknowledges rookies, gave serious props to Hayward. Used his full name, pronounced it right and everything.

“I wish Gordon Hayward would have stayed in college and helped Butler last night instead of kicking our butt,” Jackson said.

Instead, the Lakers were on the wrong side of the one thing that went right for Butler’s program this week.

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if he has the opportunity to play for a top notch head coach who believes in his ability to excel at the highest level of competition.

Time will eventually tell, if that specific assessment is accurate, or not.