khandor’s sports blog

Yet another reason to like the job which Otis Smith [GM] has done, thus far?

NBA Countdown: No. 8 Orlando Magic
Reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in 14 years and second in franchise history was a wonderful accomplishment for the Orlando Magic-but there was no guarantee a championship would follow.The Magic will go into the 2009-10 season determined to defend their Eastern Conference title but looking different than when they won it. Yes, they still have All-Star center Dwight Howard as their foundation and high-priced Rashard Lewis (who’s suspended the first 10 games of the season after testing positive for an elevated testosterone level) shooting 3-pointers, but the Magic changed their late-game, go-to guy by switching from Turkoglu to Carter.

It’s why general manager Otis Smith didn’t take any bows, or even take the time to catch his breath.

And it’s also why he made one of the boldest moves of the summer, changing his carefully crafted team chemistry by trading for All-Star Vince Carter and letting go of free agent Hedo Turkoglu, a key player in Orlando’s recent rise.

“You can’t stand still in this league,” Smith said. “If you do, you’ll be going backward.”

The Magic also added free agents in power forward Brandon Bass from Dallas and small forward Matt Barnes of Phoenix. They even added point guard Jason Williams, who last played during 2007-08 with the Heat. Surprisingly, they kept backup center Marcin Gortat by matching the offer sheet Dallas gave him.

With the Celtics adding Rasheed Wallace and the Cavaliers trading for Shaquille O’Neal, the Magic tried to keep pace with the other serious contenders in the East.

“There are less than seven teams every year that really are trying to win a championship in our league,” Smith said. “Those three (in the East) are trying to win now, as opposed to saying ‘We’re OK where we are. Let’s stay the status quo.’”

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Otis Smith was hired by the Magic on May 6, 2006.

This is what the team’s roster looked like on that day:

Augmon, Stacey F
Battie, Tony PF-C
Cato, Kelvin C
Diener, Travis PG
Dooling, Keyon G
Francis, Steve G
Garrity, Pat PF
Hill, Grant G-F
Howard, Dwight C
Kasun, Mario C
Morris, Terence PF
Nelson, Jameer PG
Outlaw, Bo PF
Stevenson, DeShawn G
Turkoglu, Hedo F

This is what it looks like today, 41 months later:

Almond, Morris G
Anderson, Ryan PF
Barnes, Matt F
Bass, Brandon PF
Carter, Vince G-F
Foyle, Adonal C
Gortat, Marcin C
Howard, Dwight C
Johnson, Anthony PG
Johnson, Linton F
Lewis, Rashard F
Nelson, Jameer PG
Pietrus, Mickael G-F
Redick, JJ G
Williams, Jason PG

This is Orlando’s record of performance, since that date:

2008-2009
59-23/.720, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, NBA Finalist 
2007-2008
52-30/.634, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 2nd Rd
2006-2007
40-42/.488, 3rd Atlantic, 8th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

This was their record of performance the season before Smith arrived:

2005-2006
36-46/.439, 3rd Atlantic, 10th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

3 full seasons into his tenure with the Magic, Otis Smith should be considered as one of the best GM’s in the NBA.

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By way of comparison, for the benefit of Raptors fans, this is what Toronto has accomplished under the direction of Bryan Colangelo [2-time NBA EOTY award recipient] during this same time-frame:

2005-2006 Roster [Feb 28 2006]
Araujo, Rafael PF
Bonner, Matt PF
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
Davis, Antonio PF-C
Graham, Joey F
James, Mike PG
Martin, Darrick PG
Peterson, Morris G-F
Sow, Pape PF
Villanueva, Charlie F
Williams, Eric G-F
Woods, Loren C

2009-2010, Current Roster
Banks, Marcus G
Bargnani, Andrea C
Belinelli, Marco G-F
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
DeRozan, Demar G-F
Douby, Quincy G
Evans, Reggie PF
Jack, Jarrett G
Johnson, Amir PF
Nesterovic, Rasho PF-C
O’Bryant, Patrick C
Turkoglu, Hedo F
Weems, Sonny G-F
Wright, Antoine G-F

Year #1-3
2008-2009
33-49/.402, 4th Atlantic, 13th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs
2007-2008
41-41/.500, 2nd Atlantic, 6th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd
2006-2007
47-35/.573, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

Year Prior
2005-2006
27-55/.329, 4th Atlantic, 1st Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

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In the NBA, the cold harsh reality is that there are only 2 distinct tiers of teams:

Tier 1
Those few that are actually trying to win the League Championship.

Tier 2
Everybody else.

Much R.E.S.P.E.C.T. to Otis Smith for “cutting to the chase” and improving the Orlando Magic each season, thus far.

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When you first heard the news that New Jersey had agreed to trade Vince Carter [SF-OG] and Ryan Anderson [PF] to Orlando … in exchange for 3 pretty good but not great players, i.e. Courtney Lee [OG], Rafer Alston [PG], Tony Battie [PF-C] … did the thought occur to you that the Nets’ managerial tandem of Rod Thorn & Kiki Vandeweghe MUST know something that just isn’t common knowledge, yet? Or, perhaps, have an Ace of sorts, hidden up their collective sleeve?

As has been mentioned in this space before …

Yours truly has a great deal of confidence in the ability of specific GM’s across the NBA to assess with a fairly high degree of accuracy the talent level of elite players in this league: 

NJ Nets rookie takes over: Terrence Williams may be the Next Big Thing
Terrence Williams — for reasons that elude logic — looks like the Nets’ best player two weeks before camp opens.

Nobody wants to say this aloud for print, but they’ll go this far:

“He’s playing really well - a freak of nature athletically,” Keyon Dooling said yesterday. “In the moments I’ve watched, he’s really unique. What you don’t see from the great athletes is a high basketball IQ. But he has a nice floor game - a really nice floor game.”

Then there’s this from Mr. Reticence: “He’s really good. I worked with him some, watched him some, and I’m very impressed,” L-Frank said.

Both sounded as though they were looking over their shoulders, waiting for someone to jam a towel down their throats. Nobody wants to christen any rookie as The Next Big Thing, but everyone else we spoke to claims that T-Will the Thrill has absolutely torn up the gym.

Frank downshifted into omigod-let’s-douse-that-now speech:

“Winning the pickup game award isn’t necessarily a guarantee of success - Rodney Buford won it,” the coach said. “I think Terrence will be a very good player, but it’s early to make an evaluation. The guys like playing with him, because he’s a willing and capable passer - that’s human nature. But many young guys try to establish themselves by scoring; Terrence just makes the right plays and delivers the ball in the right position, which ingratiates you with teammates.”

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one of which happens to reside in New Jersey.

Does that mean these management teams never ever make a serious mistake when acquiring or releasing players for their franchise?

No, it does not.

What it does mean, though, is that … the individuals in charge of those specific organizations know exactly what it takes to put a solid team on the floor, and succeed in doing just that, on a consistent basis, without ever attempting to pull the wool over their fans eyes, regarding the realistic prospects for their team, in a given season … while always keeping a steady eye towards the gradual process involved with building a championship calibre team.

Those who think the following roster of players is going to be atrocious this season:

are making a serious in judgment … even if the Nets do happen to miss the playoffs, again.

There’s a definite plan in place with this franchise, as far as their player personnel is concerned, which now includes future stalwarts at four of the following five positions:

PG - Devin Harris
OG - Courtney Lee
SF - Terrence Williams
PF - ?
C - Brook Lopez 

It says here that Brook Lopez [C] will develop into one of the best Centers in the NBA during the next few seasons, at the heart of their line-up … with a solid core of talented athletic players around him … like D-Harris, C-Lee, CDR [?] and T-Will-The-Thrill, at their respective positions … to form a group that is going to be able to Rebound, Defend and Share the Ball, as a good team should.

Prior to the recent transaction between the Raptors [Bryan Colangelo], Mavericks [Donnie Nelson], Magic [Otis Smith & Dave Twardzik] and Grizzlies [Chris Wallace], this is what each of those team’s rosters looked like:

Coming out the other side, today, this is what they look like now, respectively:

Legend:
UFA - Unrestricted Free Agent; RFA - Restricted Free Agent; R - Rookie Player; TPE - Traded Player Exception; DP - Draft Pick; CC - Cash Considerations

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The Perspective From This Corner

The fact is, however, that the Cleveland Cavaliers [Danny Ferry] MAY have benefitted most of all from this specific transaction, as they subsequently gained unfettered access to Anthony Parker, the exact sort of complementary wing player they were searching for … to augment LeBron James & Co., in an effort to win their 1st NBA Championship. 

Your feedback is welcome in the “Comments” section.

FINAL SCORE: Raptors 107, Nets 106
Game Info

As was indicated in this space yesterday …

* This game had the makings of a hum-dinger
* If the Raptors were going to win, Jermaine O’Neal would need to substantially out-perform Josh Boone

… both of which happened last night.

Specific aspects of this game which produced a much needed victory for the Raptors, included:

* The production at the Point Guard position from the tandem of Jose Calderon + Anthony Parker, in comparison with Devin Harris & Keyon Dooling [see the Box Score], which allowed the Raptors to keep pace with the Nets throughout the game

* Jay Triano’s sound decision to remove Bargnani from the game, in favour of Jermaine O’Neal, at the 7:38 mark of the 3rd quarter … AND, then, to not re-insert Bargnani back into the game until the 2:49 mark of the 4th Quarter … which improved the Raptors’ Pick & Roll/Pop Defense immeasurably for that stretch of 16:49 … AND, then, to remove Bargnani from the game, permanently, in favour of Jamario Moon, at the 2:19 mark of the 4th Quarter … which effectively eliminated the Nets ability to easily off-set Bargnani’s skill set with another serviceable BIG, like Ryan Anderson [i.e. an under-sized PF], for the bulk of the 2nd half 

* Devin Harris’ WIDE OPEN, flat out, miss from just 15 feet away, on the final possession of the game

* Harris’ inability to SEE the mis-match which was presented to him on the Nets’ final possession with Wince Carter isolated at the TOTK vs Chris Bosh

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In the NBA, when a game is decided on the outcome of the final possession, it is most often the case that:

* One team’s good fortune combines with the other’s bad … as these respective teams more-or-less played each other to an effective stand-off, in that specific contest

* Both teams do a solid job of responding effectively to the other’s mis-match opportunities which are created by the circumstances in this specific game and the use of each team’s personnel by their coaching staff

* The actual margin of victory hinges on just one good or bad decision by the player with the ball in his hands, at the time, and/or his ability to make the shot which is presented to him by the defense … using whichever scheme it sees fit … with the game on the line.

The Raptors and the Nets, as constructed, are two Middle-of-the-Pack teams, in the Eastern Conference, each of which is capable of playing .500 basketball this season and with very little separation between them.

Now that the Raptors [18-28] have finally discovered what their best available line-up is, tonight’s match-up vs New Jersey [20-25] fits into the category of a benchmark game for the Dinos.

If the Raptors are going to make a belated run for the 8th playoff spot in the EC, they will need to get games like this one, on the road versus one of the five teams ahead of them in the standings, i.e. Milwaukee, New Jersey, New York, Charlotte and Chicago.

Q1. Where do they have an individual match-up advantage vs New Jersey?
A1. Only in the section with the bolded letters listed above. 

If O’Neal dramatically out-performs Josh Boone, the Raptors can win this game going away.

If not … it will be the Nets that prevail in what should be a hum-dinger of a contest.

Wagering Line: NETS +2/-105

Chris Douglas-Roberts may, at last, have turned a corner in the eyes of Lawrence Frank.

After playing very little during the Nets [20-25/.444, 3rd Atlantic, 9th EC] first 43 games this season, Coach Frank has seen fit to use CDR in each of their last 2 games:

GAME 2 - Box Score; Full Play-By-Play [Loss at OKC, Jan 26]
GAME 1 - Box Score; Full Play-By-Play [Win at MEM, Jan 24]

… in most interesting ways, and with specific results.

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GAME 1

During his 8:06 of action, when CDR was used as a Wing player by Coach Frank:

… and these specific 5-Man Units for the Nets effectively held their ground versus the Grizzlies in the 2nd Quarter.

This is CDR’s individual stat line from this game:

GAME 2

During the final 7:57 of last night’s game vs the Thunder, when CDR [6-7, 215] was used as the Nets’ Point Guard:

… and these respective 5-Man Units, led by CDR [+21], reduced a 30-pt deficit for the Nets [58-88] to a 7-pt margin [82-89], with 1:03 left to play, at which point Scott Brooks was forced to re-insert Kevin Durant, in order to close out the game for the Thunder at the FT Line. 

This is CDR’s individual stat line from this game:

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One of the things which this corner of the blogosphere specializes in is Being Ahead-of-the-Pack when it comes to such things as assessing accurately the authentic abilities of various NBA players who are still largely under-the-radar, to this point in their careers.

As was mentioned in this space during the pre-season, astute NBA observers should expect CDR to have a long and highly productive career in this league, given his size, overall athleticism, skill set, versatility, competitiveness, Basketball IQ, etc..

NBA games can change dramatically depending upon the substitutions a team makes, or not, and the combination of players it has on the court, at any point in time, versus an opponent’s specific 5-Man Unit.

Such was the case last night when the Raptors faced the Nets.

At the 05:00 mark of the 3rd Quarter, New Jersey led Toronto by a single point, 58-57, when the following series of substitutions were made for each team:

When the bleeding finally stopped for the Raptors, at the 02:44 mark of the 4th period, the Nets had established a 14-point margin that eventually proved to be insurmountable for the home team.

Closeer examination of these events reveals a number of interesting things about the mechanics of last night’s contest.

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After relinquishing the lead to the Raptors’ 5-Man Unit of …

Calderon-Kapono-Moon-Bargnani-Bosh,

the Nets made their first key substitution at the 03:25 mark of the 3rd Q, when they replaced Harris/PG & Simmons/SF with Dooling and Hassell, respectively, although they were trailing by 4 points [60-64], at the time.

What this substitution did was change The End of the 3rd Quarter/Beginning of the 4th Quarter Match-ups for each of the teams at the PG position.

Despite playing without their starting PG, the Nets were able to stay within striking distance of the Raptors, while buying valuable rest time for Harris to begin the 4th Quarter versus Ukic, the back-up PG for the Raptors.

Conversely, the Raptors made their first key substitution at the 02:32 of the 3rd Quarter when they replaced Kapono/OG and Bosh/C with Parker & Graham, respectively, while leading the Nets by 6 points, 60-66.

What this substitution did was create a most unusual line-up for Toronto that has rarely, if ever, seen the court this season [either under Sam Mitchell or Jay Triano]:

Calderon-Parker-Moon-Graham-Bargnani

It was this unit which failed to open up a wider working margin for the Raptors versus the Nets, playing without Harris.

Then, at the 3rd Quarter interval, was when both teams made their second set of key substitutions:

New Jersey … used Harris & Dooling together, in conjunction with Lopez, Anderson & Hassell; while resting Carter.

Toronto … replaced Calderon with Ukic, and kept their other four players [who finished the 3rd Quarter] on the court.

What these two sets of subs did was:

1. Prevent the Raptors from establishing a wider working margin over the Nets, while New Jersey was buying rest time for Carter;

2. Establish Harris [who scored the first 5 points of the quarter playing versus the Raptors' back-up PG] as the Offensive Focus for the Nets during this segment of the game.

The third key substitution for the Nets was made at the 06:21 mark of the 4th Quarter when they replaced Dooling/OG with Carter, who was rested for the stretch run, after the Nets had already regained the lead from the Raptors, primarily, on the back of Harris and Lopez.

The third key susbstitution for the Raptors was made at the 05:39 mark of the 4th Quarter when they replaced Moon/SF & O’Neal/C with Graham/SF & Bargnani/PF, respectively, shifted Bosh to the Center position, in conjunction with Calderon and Kapono [who played all 12 minutes of the 4th Quarter]. 

It was this line-up that was outscored 10-2 by the Nets between the 05:39 and 03:26 marks of the 4th Quarter, which allowed New Jersey to establish a 10 point lead on the Raptors, 84-74.

The fourth key substitution for the Raptors was at the 03:26 mark of the 4th Quarter when Toronto replaced Bargnani/PF & Graham/SF with O’Neal & Moon, respectively, after which the Nets increased their lead to 14 points, 88-74.

In fact, it was during these two specific segments of the game that the following  16 Key Possession Outcomes occurred and determined the eventual Winner/Loser of this match-up:

i.e. New Jersey converted 6 of their 8 Possessions [75.0%] into 14 points; while Toronto converted only 1 of their 8 Possessions [12.5 %] into 2 points. 

Of particular interest to this corner are the following facts:

* The Raptors LOST the Battle of the Boards last night, 38 to 54. 

* During these 8 Possessions the Raptors’ output consisted of:

• 2 Missed J3’s by Kapono
  2 Missed Layup/Tap-in Attempts by Bosh
  2 Turnovers by Calderon
  1 Set of 2 Missed FT’s by O’Neal
  1 Set of 2 Made FT’s by Calderon

* During these two key segments of the game, the Raptors chose to ignore the line-up they used last week versus the Pacers to close out their first victory under Jay Triano, i.e. Calderon-Moon-Graham-Bosh-O’Neal, that is by far the best REBOUNDING & Team Defense 5-Man Unit which Toronto can put on the floor.

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In general …

How a team uses its substitutes, at important moments within a specific NBA game, can be a crucial factor toward determining the eventual Winner/Loser of that contest.

Such was the case last night, at the ACC, when the Raptors forgot just how vital REBOUNDING & Team Defense are … especially, during the 4th Quarter of a close game, in this league, versus a dangerous opponent.

Orlando vs Toronto (Tue Apr 22) - Game Summary

When the Raptors play this well, on the road, in the playoffs …

* Shooting a higher Field Goal % than their Opponent (45.7 to 42.7)
* With a higher 3pt Field Goal % than their Opponent (37.9 to 29.0)
* With more Made 3pt Shots than their Opponent (11 to 9) 
* With a higher Free Throw % than their Opponent (90.0 to 82.6)
* With more Assists than their Opponent (21 to 19)

and finish only 1 point shy on the Scoreboard …

Tor 103, ORL 104

after being down by as many as 18 pts, at one stage, and with a clean look on their final possession to win the game outright …

it can seem as though Toronto put forth a tremedous effort, battled hard and was just unfortunate to lose a game that could have very easily gone either way.

Yes, indeed, that can sometimes be exactly how it seems.

But … seeming isn’t the same thing as BEING the case when trying to understand the reason(s) one team lost and one team won a specific game in the NBA playoffs.

With 3:00 remaining in the 4th Quarter of yesterday’s Game 2, with these line-ups for each team:

PG - Jose Calderon v Jameer Nelson
OG - Anthony Parker v Keith Bogans
SF - Jason Kapono v Rashard Lewis
PF - Carlos Delfino v Hedo Turkoglu
C - Chris Bosh v Dwight Howard

the following sequence of possessions occurred:

3:00 … Tor/Calderon Made 3Pt Shot (over Bogans) … ORL 98, Tor 97
2:41 … ORL/Nelson Driving Layup Attempt Blocked by Bosh
2:30 … Tor/Kapono Missed Leaning Jump Shot; Kapono Turnover (stepped out-of-bounds)
FULL TIME-OUT
2:13 … ORL/Howard Fouled by Delfino
2:03 … ORL/Turkoglu Missed Jump Shot; Offensive Rebound by Lewis (vs Delfino)
2:01 … ORL/Lewis Made Layup (vs Delfino) … ORL 100, Tor 97
1:47 … Tor/Calderon Made 3Pt Shot … ORL 100, Tor 100
1:26 … ORL/Lewis Missed 3Pt Shot; Defensive Reound by Parker
1:04 … Tor/Delfino Driving Layup Attempt, Fouled by Turkoglu; Delfino Missed 1st Free Throw Attempt, Made 2nd FT … Tor 101, ORL 100
20 SECOND TIME-OUT (ORL)
1:02 … ORL/Turkoglu Missed 3Pt Shot, Tap-out by Lewis/Delfino; Offensive Rebound by Nelson (vs Calderon)
0:51.6 … ORL/Lewis Missed 3Pt Shot; Defensive Rebound by Bosh
0:47.0 … Tor/Turnover by Bosh (bad pass); Steal by Bogans
0:35.1 … ORL/Howard Fouled by Bosh
0:30.3 … ORL/Turkoglu Made tough Driving Layup … ORL 102, Tor 101
20 SECOND TIME-OUT (Tor)
0:26.5 … Tor/Bosh Missed Driving Layup Attempt (Blocked Shot by Howard, no foul called)
0:18.7 … ORL/Turkoglu Fouled by Kapono; Turkoglu Made 2 Free Throws … ORL 104, Tor 101
0:09.6 … Tor/Delfino Made Driving Layup … ORL 104, Tor 103
20 Second Time-out (Orlando), Dooling replaced Bogans
0:09.3 … ORL/Offensive Foul by Dooling
FULL TIME-OUT (Tor)
0:03.0 … Tor/Bosh Missed 18′ Jump Shot
GAME OVER

meaning that Chris Bosh, Carlos Delfino, Jason Kapono and Jose Calderon each committed the types of serious miscues which can derail an inexperienced team playing on the road in the post-season … e.g. Giving up an Important Offensive Rebound, Missing a Critical Free Throw, Committing a Turnover & Missing a Crucial Jump Shot. 

Until Toronto’s best players are put into these specific types of End-of-Game situations more times during their NBA careers, it is likely that they will continue to come up on the short end of intensely played playoff games that are usually decided by individual player execution during the final three minutes of the game.

Looking ahead to Games 3 & 4, in Toronto, it will be interesting to see:

(A) How Orlando’s best players … in most cases, equally inexperienced as Toronto’s … are able to handle the intensity of playoff competition during this specific phase of the game, where Winners & Losers are frequently determined in the NBA’s post-season; and,

(B) If Toronto decides to give increased playing time to the specific Small-Ball Unit (i.e. Calderon, Parker, Kapono, Delfino & Bosh) that finished Game 2 … with its strength (3Pt Shooting) and weakness (Offensive Rebounds Allowed).

During Sunday’s Lakers v Nuggets Game 1, Jeff Van Gundy (NBA Analyst) made an insightful comment - one of many he makes, per game - about the value of a coach’s ‘words’ alone toward the performance of his team, vs what their habits are, on a daily basis …

“(as a coach) You cannot influence a team with your words, at halftime or in the pre-game talk … they are going to do what they do.” - JVG

… which is exactly what I thought of while evaluating the Boxscore from Toronto/Orlando Game 1 … where the the Rebounding numbers were, as follows:

Toronto 35 (Individual) + 11 (Team) = 46
Orlando 42 (Individual) + 6 (Team) = 48

meaning that the Raptors and the Magic both performed pretty much as expected when these two teams are matched-up against one another, since during the Regular Season …

Orlando (+0.31) finished 16th in ‘Rebounding Differential’; while,
Toronto (-1.54) finished 22nd.

For Toronto to effect some type of fundamental change to the ‘Rebounding Differential’ numbers in Game 2 … they will need to address their Individual Player match-ups vs the key ‘board men’ for Orlando, who are D12 (22), Turkoglu (6), Bogans (5), Lewis (4), Evans (2) & Nelson (2) … for example, by going to a player rotation that I suggested on different web sites several weeks ago …

STARTERS
1/Calderon v Nelson
2/Moon v Bogans
3/Graham v Lewis
4/Humphries v Howard/Turk
5/Bosh v Turkoglu/D12

KEY SUBS
G/Parker v Dooling/Evans
F/Kapono/Delfino v Evans/Dooling
C/Nesterovic v Foyle

which is what a ‘Top Notch’ GM & Head Coach combination, like RC Buford & Gregg Popovich, would have done with the Raptors’ player personnel … several months ago … e.g. when TJ Ford was pulling his ’sulking’ I’ll-only-play-as-a-Starter-for-this-team B.S.

Unless you can ‘think the Individual Player match-up game’ like a ‘Top Notch’ NBA head coach, it’s very difficult to truly understand what THE DIFFERENCE is between ‘the Winners’ & ‘the Losers’ in this League, in the games that have a lot of meaning … i.e. versus Plus .500 Teams.

Enjoy Game 2 this evening! … which Orlando will probably win to go up 2-0 in this 1st Round series.