khandor’s sports blog

For the benefit of those of you playing along at home …

This is what the Final Results would look like, if yours truly had been invited to participate in this year’s ‘exclusive’ NBA Playoffs handicapping event:

TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown Contest 2010

 

Participants

Mrs. Abbott – Henry’s mother [Mom]

Prof. David Berri – Wages of Wins Journal

John Hollinger – ESPN NBA Insider

Stephen Ilardi – Adjusted Plus/Minus

Jeffrey Ma – Bringing Down The House/21

Neil Paine – Basketball Reference Blog

Kevin Pelton – Basketball Prospectus

Haralabos Voulgaris – Former professional gambler

khandor – Sports Consultant

 

Correct Team Selected = 5 points

Correct Games Number Selected = 2 additional points 
 

Handicapper	Series Calls Results	Final Points	Final Standings
Ma	13/15 [86.7%]	71	1st
Pelton	13/15 [86.7%]	70	2nd
khandor	12/15 [80.0%]	66	T-3rd
Hollinger	12/15 [80.0%]	66	T-3rd
Berri	11/15 [73.3%]	57	5th
Ilardi	10/15 [66.7%]	54	6th
Paine	10/15 [66.7%]	52	7th
Mom	8/15 [53.3%]	49	8th
Voulgaris	8/15 [53.3%]	40	9th

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khandor’s Individual Series Selections

1st Round
WINNERS: Cleveland/#1, Orlando/#2, Atlanta/#3, Boston/#4, Los Angeles/#5, San Antonio/#6, Phoenix/#7 and Utah/#8
LOSERS: Zero/#0

2nd Round
WINNERS: Orlando/#9, Los Angeles/#10
LOSERS: Cleveland/#1 and San Antonio/#2

3rd Round
WINNERS: Los Angeles/#11
LOSERS: Orlando/#3

Finals
WINNER: Los Angeles/#12

Bold - Correct game number call.

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Congratulations to Jeffrey Ma for emerging victorious in this year’s ‘official’ contest!

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PS. For those who would like to verify the individual series selections made by Khandor’s Sports Service [KSS], please feel free to contact Prof. Berri, directly, as he was, in fact, sent each of those specific calls, via email, prior to the start of each round. Prof. Berri is currently working at Southern Utah University and his email address is available to the public at their web site.

Unfortunately, it’s articles and season forecasts like this …

No time to waste? Fast-forward through the 2009-2010 season
Surprise Team

They stand a far better chance of holding a UN summit than the Larry O’Brien trophy. But the Raptors, who speak more languages than Berlitz, will throw a memorable season-long going-away party for Chris Bosh. Six new players will figure into the rotation, which raises the possibility of a chaotic first few months. But everyone on the roster has a specific role. Ballhandling by Jose Calderon. Outside shooting by Andrea Bargnani. Rebounding by Reggie Evans. Toughness by Jarret Jack. Scoring off the dribble by Hedo Turkoglu. Young bounce by DeMar DeRozan. Defense by … um, oh well. You won’t fall in love with any one player, but you’ll fall in like with several. Plus, Bosh is playing for money. They’ll finish top-6 in the East, make the playoffs, pull a first-round surprise and then reach for a hanky when Bosh goes off to … drum roll … Miami.

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that consistently get it wrong/backwards, when it comes to, “How to properly evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of a NBA team,” considering the three main phases of the game: 1. Defense, 2. Rebounding, and 3. Offense.

Instead of including these five [5] simple words in the middle of this paragraph … regarding the Raptors’ collective inability to get stops at crucial times in games played this season, against quality opponents … and surrounding them with 140+ words about the:

- International flavour of the roster
- roster make-over this summer [with 9 new faces on-board]
- roles filled by only 6 players [in a game that needs, at least, 8-9]
- team’s offensive capabilities, i.e. ballhandling, shooting and scoring
- team’s infusion of toughness
- expectation to qualify for the playoffs and win a 1st Round series
- the possible departure of the team’s lone All-Star player

what Shaun Powell should have done is LEAD with it … since Defense and Rebounding are so much more important to a NBA team’s actual success or failure [as opposed to Offense, rumours and/or W-L predictions].

The teams that finish toward the top of the standings in this league, year-after-year, are the ones which perform the best in these two specific areas of the game, irrespective of the particular tools used to measure them, e.g. Points Differential, Points Allowed, Defensive Efficiency Ratings, Rebounding Differential, Rebounding Percentages and Ratings [etc.].

When any so-called “NBA analyst” uses a 30:1, like this, in her/his description of the prospects for a certain team [between the words devouted to "Offense and Others Things" vs "Defense and Rebounding"] what s/he’s really showing you is that s/he does NOT understand how the game works at this level of competition. 

The only people the Raptors are going to surprise this season are those who have yet to read the work of individuals like David Berri, John Hollinger, Brad Doolittle & Kevin Pelton, Wayne Winston … and yours truly.

… it’s one of this corner’s all-time favourite pieces of music:

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and a source of real inspiration in connection with the view here towards today’s article [PG warning for language] from Matt Moore, on the role of “advanced stats” in the modern game of hoops vs good ole fashion Basketball Acumen.

Last week Henry Abbott asked a specific question of his readers …

One Shot, with the game on the line
Who would you pick to take that shot?

In survey after survey, expert after expert has said: “Kobe Bryant.”

Roland Beech of 82games.com just pored through five and a half years of game-winning shots however, and found that with the game on the line, Bryant has made 14 of his 56 shots.

That’s 25%.

Which means that as the ball comes off Bryant’s fingertips, your chances of getting two points roughly similar as to when Shaquille O’Neal heads to the free throw line to shoot two free throws …

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Today, Brian McCormick has a terrific article on the …

NBA’s Best Shooters
Last week, Tim Legler looked at NBA shooters and rated his top three shooters:

1. Ray Allen
2. Dirk Nowitzki
3. Jason Kapono

Legler introduces the 170 club, which is basically the same concept as the 180 Shooter, except the “170 club” aims for 80% from the free throw line, while the 180 Shooter aims for 90% from the free throw line.

His picks are obviously very good shooters. Of his top three, I would pick Allen first as well because he makes a greater variety of shots. When looking at the top shooters, I believe the best shooter must be someone who can make “all the shots” rather than just being the best three-point shooter.

If using the five phase progression from 180 Shooter, Kapono, for instance, shoots primarily Phase 1 shots: stand-still catch-and-shoot shots and free throws. For this reason, players like Kapono and Kyle Korver and other top shooters do not register at the top of my list.

In last week’s Sports Illustrated, NBA players picked Allen, Reggie Miller, Larry Bird, Kapono and Peja Stojakovic as the top shooters. I don’t think these people think very hard …

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Be sure to read the “comments” section, where you’ll see the opinion of this corner expressed succinctly.

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Which recalls a line from this classic Spaghetti Western …

“When it’s time to shoot. Then, Shoot!”

In a real game, at crunch time, there are those who cannot pull the trigger effectively and those who can.

Actual percentages have very little to do with it … as the very best shooters/scorers in NBA history absolutely KNOW that the next shot which THEY take will be GOING IN, regardless what their percentage might be.

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UPDATE:

Exhibit A

Btw … this corner’s unabashed respect for Jeff Van Gundy’s ability to deliver in the clutch, as a NBA TV Analyst, remains unchanged.

Kobe, ‘the Arc’, Lebron, the Boss, JVG and an Olajuwon Shake … on a Sunday afternoon.

It just doesn’t get any better than THAT.