khandor’s sports blog

Craig Kwasniewski [The Association], a die-hard LA Lakers fan and season-ticket holder, smacks one a clear country mile, when reviewing the precise reasons why the Boston Celtics SHOULD simply “stay the course” with their latter-day version of the Big Three:

Celtics Should Keep Ray Allen for One Last Ride with The Big Three

I think it’s insane to break up The Big Three so soon after hanging banner 17.  Shouldn’t they be allowed to give it one last shot together?  Shouldn’t we consider that this might be a rough patch in a long season?  Why break up a good thing so quickly, did you not forget the 22-year championship drought?

Anyway, here are a few reasons why the C’s should keep Ray Allen and give The Big Three one last chance at a title:

The long regular season. Relax Boston… I know it’s cold and miserable back east and the long winter is getting to you but you really need to be reminded how The Association works.  The NBA regular season is a very long 82-games over six months. Mix in preseason and hopefully a long postseason and you’re looking at a 8 or 9 month season. Veteran teams always seem to hit a lull somewhere between Christmas and Easter. It’s impossible to bring playoff efforts when your key players are in their 30’s… it’s just not possible (and the ones that did, like the Pat Riley Heat teams in the late 90’s collapsed in a heap by playoff time).  Just ride out this rough patch, usually teams find their second wind around March Madness.

Don’t be so quick to blow up the Big Three.  Counting playoffs The Big Three era has lasted about 2 1/2 seasons for a total of 253 games.  Actually that sounds like a good number of games… a good run at legitimate title contention, right?  Not really when you consider that the C’s were last legit contenders when Bird retired in 1992.  That’s 15 seasons with 6 brief postseason appearances (and only one conference championship appearance in 2001-02 with the Jim O’Brien chuck-and-duck era) for a grand total of 1,275 games.  Suddenly 253 games doesn’t sound like a lot does it?  Maybe you might want to remember the long drought before sending off a future hall-of-fame guard for a quick fix.

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In the judgment of yours truly, Craig’s take is 100% on the money.

Although Ubuntu! may not have enough left in the tank this season to be able to actually win-it-all, again … with the Lakers, Magic and Cavaliers being as strong as they are right now … it sure as heck DESERVES THE OPPORTUNITY TO TRY, at least, ONE MORE TIME, even bloodied and battered.

Simple put … that’s THE RIGHT STUFF of which True Champions are made, whether or not they, in fact, succeed on the court together.

Toronto Raptors 103
BOSTON CELTICS 116
Fri Nov 27 2009 - Game Summary

Feschuk: Raptors bow down meekly to Celtics 103-116
[excerpt #1]
“There’s no other way to say it – we just got punked,” said Antoine Wright, Toronto’s veteran swingman, a rare voice of outrage on a ho-hum club.

“We’ve got guys standing over our best player, flexing, and it’s not something we can stand for. I was pretty frustrated sitting on the bench watching their whole team run out there on the floor and we only had our coaches up shouting and screaming at their players. I don’t like that.”

Said Bosh: “Yeah, I’d like to see the team more passionate. I look at their bench and they’re all up standing at half-court, and nobody from their team was down on the floor. I think we would react better to just be out there for one another and just stay together.”

Wright and Bosh were on something of an island, it seemed. Jay Triano, the Toronto coach, didn’t register a qualm with his team’s reaction to Pierce’s technical; he said he “liked the way we fought back after that” – although the Raptors, down 17 points at the time, never got the Boston advantage below nine points. Jarrett Jack, who bent down to check on Bosh, pointed out that the play was clean, and that the Raptors had come to Bosh’s aid when Bosh tangled with Dwight Howard in a game against the Magic earlier this season.

Nobody was suggesting the Raptors should have brawled. But there’s no denying that Pierce’s dunk-and-pose was symbolic of Boston’s second-half manhandling of the soft visitors.

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When you look at the Full Play-By-Play of the 3rd Quarter … from the 8:00 mark until the end of the stanza … you should be able to see that Antoine Wright was on the court when this game changed for the worst, from the Raptors’ perspective, and did nothing to stem the tide with his own play.

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Q1. How does a team which is soft Defensively, and in terms of Rebounding, increase its overall Toughness Quotient?

A1. Not by adding 9 new players to its roster that play the game like this:

with an existing group that looks like this:

High end teams in the NBA have a player roster which is filled with QUALITY DEPTH and several individuals that come ready-made with PHYSICAL TOUGHNESS.

In the immediate aftermath of Paul Pierce’s drive and dunk, in which he planted his knee directly into Chris Bosh’s groin area … it’s NO COINCIDENCE that the first two members of the Raptors’ contingent to forcibly express their displeasure were:

#1. Alex English [former NBA player, Hall of Fame Inductee]; and,

#2. Marc Iavaroni [former NBA player, 1981 World Champion, Philadelphia 76ers].

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[excerpt #2]
Wright, speaking to reporters before the game, criticized unnamed teammates for lax preparation in the wake of Wednesday’s 35-point loss in Charlotte: “You’ve got guys in here eating popcorn, joking around before the game. And we go out there and lose by 40. It’s a direct result of what’s going on before the game. Guys not coming in with the right mind frame.”

Those words appeared to resonate. Said Sonny Weems, the 23-year-old wing: “We do fool around a lot. And it tends to carry over into the game, and that’s something that needs to change.”

You’ll excuse Bosh, the seventh-year Raptor who has heard similar vows of vigilance before, if he exhaled through the post-game questions.

Said Wright: “We’ve got a lot of good players on this team but we’re going to have to come together or teams are just going to continue to run us over like this.”

Sighed Bosh: “I’m tired of talking about toughness. We talk about it too much. We talk about everything too much. We’ve got to stop talking about it and just do it.”

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Until the current Raptors’ Management Team understands the TRUE VALUE of Defense, Rebounding and PHYSICAL TOUGHNESS … for the High End teams in the NBA … Toronto will continue to be an also-ran.

Memo to Bryan Colangelo.

The time for Tough[ness] Talk has long since passed … if you want to re-sign Chris Bosh this summer and construct a championship calibre organization for the Toronto Raptors.

The ball is in YOUR court, once again.

For the benefit of those who may not have read it yet …

Can Toronto Build a Winner Around Bosh
When we put the entire picture together, it doesn’t look too good for fans of Toronto.  The Raptors will still employ the services of Calderon and Bosh, and these players produced about 21 wins last year.  And it’s possible that Turkoglu, Jack, Evans, and Johnson can contribute another 15 wins.  After these players, though, who else is going to produce significant quantity of wins?  And if no one else produces much, how will Bosh believe that the Raptors are building a contender?

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is a first-rate take by David Berri on the Raptors’ current situation.

Since his arrival in the NBA, 6 seasons ago, Chris Bosh has firmly established himself as one of the very best Big Men in the League … with an individual game that’s unique, as an under-sized Center, and in need of support from a group of talented teammates. Unfortunately, what has also happened during this same time-frame, repeatedly, is that the team’s ownership group [i.e. MLSE] and upper management have demonstrated an inability to make sound basketball-related decisions around him, based on an over-riding Plan of Attack geared toward the building of a championship-winning calibre team in Toronto, through the proper acquisition and retention of Top Notch NBA talent, which includes executives, coaches, support staff and players.

Understanding exactly what the Boston Celtics actually did 3 summers ago to transform their team into a legitimate title contender:

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1. Retain the services of a very good and already-proven NBA head coach;
2. Hold onto their already-established franchise player [i.e. Paul Pierce];
3. Trade an upcoming top draft pick for a 2nd established franchise player [i.e. Ray Allen];
4. Include their younger burgeoning talent [i.e. i. Al Jefferson, ii. Ryan Gomes, and iii. Sebastien Telfair] in a major trade for a 3rd “stud” player [i.e. The Big Ticket];
5. Keep a bedrock player like Kendrick Perkins [C], as a building block for their future team;
6. Draft another young stud at the PG position [i.e. Rajon Rondo], who other teams over-looked/under-valued; and, then,
7. Filled out the remainder of its roster with very serviceable players with great attitudes who were committed to winning a championship above all else.

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means that all is NOT lost for the Raptors, as long as they begin to identify accurately what their actual strengths and weaknesses are, relative to their competition.

What “regular Raptors fans” need to do is spend some more time figuring out who on their team fits properly into the corresponding roles of Wyc Grousbeck [i.e. MLSE?], Danny Ainge [i.e. Bryan Colangelo?], Doc Rivers [i.e. Jay Triano?], Paul Pierce [i.e. Chris Bosh!] and Ray Allen [?], Kevin Garnett [?], and Al Jefferson [i.e. Andrea Bargnani!!!], etc., and less time putting down the 5th best player in the brief history of the team [i.e. CB4] and his designated running mate [i.e. El Matador].

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PS. Those who think that Danny Ainge [GM] was operating without an over-riding Plan of Attack, based on his Basketball Acumen, simply do not know how the NBA actually works, or how a team needs to go about building a championship-winning organization, at the highest level of competition.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 17 – at Boston [Fri Nov 27]

When healthy, this group of Celtics is too much for the Raptors to handle, with the only match-up advantage, in Toronto’s favour, deep on the bench.

Since the baseline 2005-2006 season …

these two teams have, in fact, gone in opposite directions in the Atlantic Division, with the Celtics re-asserting themselves as the dominant organization in the EC, on the whole, and the Raptors sinking back towards the bottom of the standings.

In sharp contrast to a large percentage of other Raptors fans, unfortunately, yours truly does not see this situation changing in the immediate future, given the different ways in which these two organizations operate.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 6-11

Finally … a stats guru speaks who is at least on the right track.

How stats apply to individual match-ups for elite level NBA coaches
WW: Tracy McGrady is a player who has never helped his team as much as people thought. Allen Iverson — for one or two years he was really good.

The best player of the decade, though, I’d say, was Kevin Garnett. We have a rating over the last eight or nine years, and Garnett comes out number one. And I think everybody else [other stat experts] has that too, so that’s nice.

Although I don’t like Garnett. When I watch on TV, he’s turning too edgy. Chippy attitude.

Another guy who is totally overrated is Amare Stoudemire. I mean, he’s a stat stuffer. Troy Murphy gets great stats, but never does much for the team.

(UPDATE: Winston amends this statement: “With Golden State Troy Murphy was a stat stuffer who did little to help the team but with Indiana the last two years he has improved to where he is an above average NBA player.”)

There’s a bunch of guys like that.

Andre Iguodala, though. Whenever he’s on the court for Philadelphia, they’re great. Whenever he’s off, they suck. God knows why he’s a good player. I watch him play, and I don’t know. (More on Iguodala.)

Jason Kidd is a little like that, but you can see why he makes guys better. But not Iguodala.

HA: Sometimes I feel like I can see Kidd’s greatness, but other times, at this stage of his career, I can’t. 

WW: Kidd can’t guard a fast guard. They go right by him like he’s standing still. They always did. Against Chris Paul … Jason Kidd might as well be standing still on defense.

But the interesting thing: Devin Harris can nail Tony Parker. But Steve Nash can beat Devin Harris. But Parker can beat Nash.

It’s not transitive. We can show that. That’s really interesting. That shouldn’t be. But it is. There are probably a lot of other things like that.

If coaches see other examples of things like that, we can back them up with data. Del Harris really got to like us, I think, because a lot of times our numbers confirmed what he thought. It’s hard to argue with the numbers when you’ve got a full amount of data on it.

Last year [Maverick assistant] Terry Stotts did a really great job asking us questions. Before the Spurs series, they asked us about Antoine Wright.  He’s not on the team anymore, thank god. OK, he had a bad rating in our system. But the fascinating thing was, when he played small forward, he was good. When he played shooting guard, he was terrible. So we can break that down. I can find every combination where he was small forward and he was good. Every combination where he was shooting guard he was terrible. 

Against the Spurs, they used him as a small forward and he was great. Every time he played for Howard at small forward, they killed the Spurs.

Things like this … I needed the coach to ask me the question because I would have never thought of it. You don’t just throw the numbers at the coach, because, I mean, 500,000 numbers! But if the coach understands what he’s doing, and says “I think Antoine Wright can play small forward can you tell me if that’s true?” That’s how you use the stuff.

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THIS is the direction in which basketball analysis NEEDS to go.

Sincere thanks to you … Wayne Winston!

PS. It’s the job of an elite level basketball coach to answer correctly the questions which Wayne Winston doesn’t happen to have the specific training, knowledge base and experience to discern properly on his own … e.g. What really makes Andre Iguodala as good as he is given what the “average” stats/numbers have to say about his level of play?  Those who can DO THAT are the ones with the type of Basketball Analysis/Acumen you SHOULD BE listening to in order to better understand, How The NBA Game Actually Works, Based On Individual Match-ups.

PPS. Class for NBA 101 is now finished for today … or, in fact, for some of you, at least, it may just be starting … from scratch.

PPPS. Btw … What Wayne Winston had to say in this piece about there being no distinction necessary between the use of players like Brandon Bass [#4/PF] and Dirk Nowitzki [#5/C], on the court together, regardless of their position, and the effect/thinking of Mike D’Antoni, just happens to be wrong.

It’s interesting when others in the blogosphere attempt to rank NBA players, by position, according to a metric which is based, at least, in part, on standardized game statistics, e.g. PPG, RPG, APG, TS% and PER.

Ranking Eastern Conference Power Forwards
As always, these rankings are meant to project how I think they’ll perform next season, not what they’ve done in the past. The numbers next to each player are last season’s points, assists and rebounds per 36 minutes, their True Shooting percentage (TS%) and their Player Efficiency Ratings (PER).

1. Chris Bosh, Toronto — 2008-09 numbers: 21.5 PTS, 2.3 AST, 9.5 REB, .569 TS%, 22.1 PER
CB4 probably belongs on the top of this list even if he just delivers the same numbers he has over the past four seasons, but it’s a contract year and he wants to prove he’s worth a max contract. I don’t know if his scoring numbers will increase, but I think he’s going to jack up his intensity on defence and on the boards.

2. Kevin Garnett, Boston — 2008-09 numbers: 18.3 PTS, 2.9 AST, 9.9 REB, .563 TS%, 21.2 PER
Before KG screwed up his knee, he was easily the best power forward in the East. Since he’s 33 years old, I’m skeptical that he can return with the same athleticism and explosiveness he’s known for. Of course, Boston fans will tell you that he’ll more than make up for that with heart, intensity, and plain ol’ Celtic Pride. (Pausing to vomit profusely in wastebasket.)

3. Rashard Lewis, Orlando — 2008-09 numbers: 17.6 PTS, 2.6 AST, 5.7 REB, .580 TS%, 16.8 PER
Rashard scored in double figures in all 19 playoff games leading up to the NBA Finals — he was particularly devastating in helping to dispatch the favoured Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals. He might end up sliding over to small forward while new team-mate Brandon Bass mans the four-spot, but without confirmation I’ll assume that Lewis will remain the starting power forward and an excellent complement to Dwight Howard’s power game.

4. Josh Smith, Atlanta — 2008-09 numbers: 16.0 PTS, 2.5 AST, 7.4 REB, .533 TS%, 17.2 PER
Sure, he’s a knucklehead, but a very talented one. If he stops jacking up ill-advised threes and returns to being one of the most devastating shot-blockers in the league, Smith’s $10.8 million salary next season might actually seem like a relative bargain.

5. Elton Brand, Philadelphia — 2008-09 numbers: 15.6 PTS, 1.4 AST, 9.9 REB, .484 TS%, 14.6 PER
If he was still in his prime, Brand would easily be third on this list. Unfortunately, he was in the bottom half of Eastern power forwards last season because he was labouring with a bum shoulder and he only played in 29 games. There isn’t a strong track record of big men in their 30s returning to their prior glory after a bad run of injuries (see: Jermaine O’Neal) but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he can get his shooting percentage back up to pre-injury form since he claims he’s feeling like his old self again.

6. Antawn Jamison, Washington — 2008-09 numbers: 20.9 PTS, 1.8 AST, 8.4 REB, .549 TS%, 20.6 PER
Jamison has always put up good numbers and as far as I know, he’s always been a terrible defender. That might help explain why the Wizards had the second-worst record in the NBA last season.

7. Troy Murphy, Indiana — 2008-09 numbers: 15.1 PTS, 2.5 AST, 12.5 REB, .614 TS%, 17.8 PER
Is Troy Murphy a better athlete than Andrea Bargnani? And if not, how does Troy grab twice as many rebounds as Andrea per 36 minutes? Murphy is just as deadly from beyond the arc (45% last season) as Bargnani, but our guy gets the edge on defence because Murph is lousy on that end.

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Or, do they reveal a bias of some sort … i.e. in favour or against specific players; or, a specific “type” of player … at this position?

FWIW …

Here are the preferences of this corner when it comes to choosing the best Power Forward from the Eastern Conference, from this list, if the goal is Winning … e.g. a Do-or-Die Playoff Game … this coming season.

In what should go down as one of the great playoff performances of all-time for the Celtics …

* Minus Kevin Garnett [injured]
* Minus Leon Powe [injured]
* Down by 11 points … at the the 9:27 mark of the 4th quarter
* Minus Ray Allen … who fouled out at the 5:26 mark of the 4th [with the Celtics trailing, 80-83] 

Boston got a series of fantastic performances from the other players on their team which enabled them to out-last the Chicago Bulls, in OT, in Game 4.

In particular, when you look at the Full Play-By-Play what you should see is that Paul Pierce, after starting 6-17 [FGM-FGA], made his last 5 shots:

Q4, 01:13 … Driving Layup
Q4, 00:10 … 15ft Jump-shot [isolation]
———————–
OT, 01:16 … 16ft Jump-shot [isolation]
OT, 00:36 … 18ft Jump-shot [isolation]
OT, 00:03 … 20ft Jump-shot [isolation]

when the game was on the line;

while each of:

Kendrick Perkins, +35 *
Rajon Rondo, +29 *
Glen ‘Big Baby’ Davis, +23 *

[complete Box Score]

put forth a monster individual effort for Boston.

* k-PER = [FGM - FGA] + [FTM - FTA] + TRB + AST + ST + BS - TO - PF + PTS

Q1. Do the Celtics have enough left in the tank to get past the Cavaliers and then the Lakers this season?

A1. No, they do not.

What was on display last night, however, was THE WILL it takes to become a NBA champion.

Great Stuff, all around!

Yesterday’s action finished with the following results:

W-L: 2-2/.500
Units: -1.08

which are slightly better than Day 1 but not where they need to be … just yet. 

Overall, after Day 2:

W-L: 3-4/.429
Units: -3.37

Hopefully, the news will continue to get better today. :-) 

================================================

Mon Apr 20 2009

Game 1 - 2/Celtics vs 7/Bulls

As was said here two days ago … the strength of Derrick Rose’s individual game is a giant neutralizer of one Rajon Rondo for the defending champs. How Doc Rivers copes with this reality will be a key in this evening’s Game 2 of this series. It’s one thing knowing that your emotional center-piece is not going to be you your line-up in the playoffs and another thing altogether, lacing them up and taking the court without him, at the front of the line, wearing #5. The Celtics should be much better prepared for this evening’s tilt, from this standpoint alone. There is no Superman coming in from the Wings to save them. If they’re going to get to Round 2, they will a far better performance from both Jesus Shuttlesworth and Da Truth. Keep your eyes peeled, as well, for Bill Walker, as he presents one of the few options on the Celtics’ bench that can increase their size and athleticism at the Wings when Pierce and/or Allen-R need to rest. Can the Baby Bulls [i.e. Rose, Noah & Thomas-Ty] possibly perform as they did on Saturday afternoon, for a second consecutive game in the playoffs? 41-41/.500 suggests that it’s a stretch to think it likely. Expect the C’s to start much better this evening; then, ride the emotion of their home crowd through the balance of the 2nd half. The Bulls are young at key positions, and it will be difficult for them to maintain their concentration for 96 consecutive minutes, in enemy territory, with the champs at the ready and staring at 0-2.

Chicago +8.5/-102
BOSTON -8.5/-106
Call: BOSTON [1 unit]

Game 2 - 3/SPURS vs 6/Mavericks

Everything about the San Antonio organization says that they will find a way to square this series, somehow, this evening. But, 6.5 points is a lot to give up … without Manu Ginobili, completely, and Tim Duncan being far from 100%. Can Coach Popovich pull another rabbit from his hat? You bet, he can … especially if he goes retro with the deployment of his troops in this series, i.e. MAIN PLAYERS: Parker + Finley + Bowen + Oberto + Duncan; KEY SUBS: Mason, Hill, Udoka, Gooden & Thomas. Matt Bonner has had a good season, and has provided the Spurs with solid points production from the #4/PF spot beside the Big Fundamental … but, that will do them no good in this series when what they NEED is to DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE THEIR REBOUNDING, at positions #2/OG, #3/SF, and most importantly #4/PF. The Mavericks are a veteran outfit that many have a tendency to forget were good enough to put up 67 wins just two seasons ago and lost in the NBA Finals, to D-Wade & Co., the year before that. Dallas matches up exceptionally well with their opponent in this series [especially, given the absence of Ginobili, and Pops' questionable decisions to start Mason and give only reduced minutes to the Karate Kid]. Even if they go down to defeat this evening, Dallas should have the know-how to keep it close until the final minute of the 4th period.

Dallas +6/-105
SAN ANTONIO -6/-105
Call: Dallas [2 unit]

Right on the heels of this afternoon’s announcement, re: the possibility that Kevin Garnett will need to miss the playoffs entirely, comes this shocking news straight out of left field:

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Celtic GM Danny Ainge has mild heart attack
Boston Celtics general manager Danny Ainge was hospitalized Thursday after suffering what the team described as a minor heart attack.

The team issued a brief statement saying that Ainge, 50, was taken to a Boston hospital but provided few other details.

“Danny Ainge is recovering at Massachusetts General Hospital after having a minor heart attack. He is recovering nicely,” the team said. “Mr. Ainge is expected to remain in the hospital for a few days.”

A spokeswoman for Massachusetts General Hospital referred comment to the team.

The news was first reported by WCVB, a Boston TV station.

“All of Celtics Nation is thankful that Danny got incredible medical care so quickly and so effectively,” Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck said. “We wish him, Michelle and the kids all the best and know he will be back with us very soon.”

A member of two Celtics championship teams in the 1980s with the original Big Three of Larry Bird, Kevin McHale and Robert Parish, Ainge was an NBA All-Star in 1988.

As general manager, Ainge helped the franchise raise its record 17th NBA championship last season by assembling a new Big Three, acquiring Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to join Celtics veteran Paul Pierce. Ainge was named 2007-08 NBA executive of the year and in October was rewarded with a contract extension and the title of president of basketball operations.

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Best wishes go out to Danny Ainge on what is, hopefully, a speedy recovery.

It truly pains this corner of the blogosphere to have to read a report like this today …

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Garnett out, could miss all of the playoffs
The Big Three is down to Two.

Celtics star Kevin Garnett, the centerpiece of Boston’s 2008 championship and a key to its hopes of a repeat, could miss the playoffs because of a knee injury that has limited him to four games over the final two months of the season.

Celtics coach Doc Rivers said Thursday that Garnett will not be ready for Game 1 against the Chicago Bulls and possibly won’t be back at all.

“It’s not official that he’s out for the entire playoffs, but it’s official as far as I’m concerned,” Rivers said before practice at the team’s workout facility. “I just don’t see how. I hope I’m wrong, but I just don’t see it.”

Garnett has been the Celtics’ inspirational leader since joining them in a 2007 trade that completed the new Big Three and propelled the franchise to its record 17th NBA title. He averaged 15.8 and 8.5 rebounds per game for the defending champions this season.

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after what was first written in this space on Wed Mar 25:

Kevin Garnett should NOT be playing right now for the Celtics

Somebody with the Boston Celtics organization SHOULD have been astute enough to see back then what was really going on with this young man’s knee injury and should have taken the necessary steps to prevent him from returning to the court prematurely.

His presence will be missed by all those who love the game.