khandor’s sports blog

Welcome back NBA.

for 66 points, under the moon, and the stars, and the lights …

… at famed Rucker Park.

Prior to the start of this year’s NBA Playoffs, yours truly characterized the Oklahoma City Thunder as a very good young team … without a legitimate shot at winning the League Championship this season.

Q. How come?

A. Scott Brooks still has a great deal to learn about coaching, and winning important games, in the NBA Playoffs.

Unfortunately, the outcome of last night’s contest, now serves as Exhibit A, in this regard.

Dallas Mavericks 112
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 105, OT
Complete Game Info
Dallas leads the series, 3-1

If you examine the:

1. Play-By-Play;

and, 

2. GameFlow Chart;

from last night, you should be able to see that Kendrick Perkins [C] was replaced by Serge Ibaka [PF] at the 3:41 mark of the 3rd quarter with the Thunder leading by 7 points [75-68] … and was never re-inserted by Scott Brooks for the remainder of the game, even though:

i. James Harden [OG-SF] fouled out at the 4:33 mark of the 4th quarter with OKC leading by 12 points, 99-87;   

and,

ii. K-Perk had led the Thunder to that point with a simple “NBA Plus/Minus” rating of +9.

Kevin Durant’s 9 Turnovers are not what lost last night’s game for OKC.

Russell Westbrook’s missed free throws and jump-shots late in the 4th quarter are not what lost last night’s game for OKC.

What lost last night’s game for OKC was:

I. Scott Brooks’ decision to play the tandem of Serge Ibaka [PF] and Nick Collison [PF-C], exclusively, from the 3:41 mark of the 3rd quarter, through the entire 4th quarter and, then, almost the entire 5-minute Overtime period;

II. While still emphasizing the Thunder’s:

A. Pick & Roll/Pop game with Russell Westbrook as their primary ball-handler;

and,

B. Perceived “Individual Match-up Advantage” with Westbrook [i.e. quicker] used relentlessly to attack Jason Kidd [i.e. slower] off the dribble;

in conjunction with,

III. Their team’s inability to get “stops” late in the 4th quarter and the Overtime; 

… without Kendrick Perkins on the floor.

Despite being heralded for the “brave” decision he made in the 4th quarter of Game 2, to keep several of his bench players in the game, coming down-the-stretch … in spite of their ever-shrinking lead … the simple fact is, Scott Brooks is still a long ways off from being classified properly as a Top Notch head coach in the NBA, when it comes to making in-game adjustments and implementing specific strategies, or tactics, at the correct time, which emphasize the right things and allow his players to succeed in a major way.

Hopefully last night’s disappointing outcome for OKC will serve as an invaluable [and extremely painful] learning experience for Coach Brooks and Misters Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Sefolosha, Harden, etc., when it comes to understanding properly the specific role that Kendrick Perkins needs to play on their team, going forward.

He is “The Defensive Anchor and The Rebounding Fulcrum” upon which their recent success is based, and he needs to be on the floor for their team at crunch time, if they are going to win big games against tough-minded opponents.

If these are the Individual Match-ups which are in-play for this evening’s tilt between Toronto and Oklahoma City:

TORONTO RAPTORS			OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Pos	PERSONNEL	ADV		PERSONNEL	Pos
STARTERS
PG	Calderon	à		Westbrook	PG
PG	Weems	=		Sefolosha	OG
SF	DeRozan	à		Green	SF
PF	Johnson	à		Ibaka	C
C	Bargnani	ß		Krstic	PF
	+1			+3
KEY SUBS
PG	Bayless	=		Maynor	OG
OG	Barbosa	=		Harden	SF
SF	Kleiza	ß		White	PF
PF	Davis	à		Collison	PF
PF	Dorsey	=		Mullens	C
	+1			0
RESERVES/EXTRAS/OUTS
SF	Wright	N/A		Ivey	PG
C	Alabi	N/A		Peterson	SF
SF	Stojakovic [inj-?]	N/A		Durant [inj-?]	SF
PF	Evans [inj]	N/A		Cook	OG
		N/A		Aldrich	C
	0			0
COACHING
HC	Triano	=		Brooks	HC
	0			0
OVERALL
	+2			+4

then, in all likelihood, this will be a game that is decided in the final minute of the 4th quarter … predicated on the actual decisions which are made by the respective head coaches, and the specific way the ball decides to fall on each team’s final perimeter jump-shot. 

——————————

Published Wagering Line

Opening: Oklahoma City -2/+101 [first posted this morning due to Durant's injury]

Current: Oklahoma City -2/+101

——————————

Oklahoma City is the better team, defensively … whether Kevin Durant plays or not … and, therefore, should be able to win tonight’s game outright and get the cover.

KSS Prognostication

Oklahoma City [i.e. -1/-110 is the final wagering line provided by www.sports-bettors.com, for the purpose of monitoring] is the correct side to be on in this game.

———————————–

PS. FWIW … a published wagering line for this game that’s as low as OKC -2 [or, now -1] is an early indication that Durantula is unlikely to suit up for the Thunder this evening.

If you’ve taken the time to read a good portion of what’s been published on this blog to-date, then, you are already familiar with a few simple “facts” about the game of basketball:

[for example]

- it is comprised of 3 distinct main phases, i.e. Defense, Rebounding and Offense

- the 1 of these 3 phases which is the least well-understood, by “fans” and other so-called “expert observers” is Rebounding … followed by Defense … primarily, due to its “central” role and the way it influences the character of an elite level team

- basketball is, fundamentally, a “team” game … in which major success and failure [i.e. winning and losing the championship] are determined, in large part, by the highly specific strengths and weaknesses of the “individual” players and their ability to work “in concert” against a particular opponent

- while statistics, in general, are a terrific tool to help one understand how the game actually works, in isolation, they are not a wholly accurate reflection of reality and, at all times, need to be evaluated critically in the appropriate context

- an examination of highly specific anecdotal evidence is a gateway to developing an accurate understanding of the way in which a championship-winning team operates that is separate and distinct from its competition 

- putting an elite level team together properly is akin to “composing a virtuoso work of art” … moreso, than simplistically “painting by the numbers”

============================

To wit:

[this is the specific comment which was just submitted by yours truly at the Wages of Wins Journal]

Another Look at Team USA in 2010

Hmmm …

 

If someone could take the time to explain the reason the previous comment which I left in this thread was removed, it would be appreciated.

 

——————————–

 

In the interim, let’s try again.

 

It is a mistake in basketball judgment to think that keeping the 12 players with the highest WP48 numbers is necessarily the best way to construct a championship-winning basketball “team”.

 

Just because Gerald Wallace’s WP48 number … which [in fact] “fails to reflect a picture of reality” [according to a respected commentor [sic] on this site like Tom Mandel] … is substantially higher than Rudy Gay’s does not mean that simply “replacing Gay with Wallace” is the better way to go, in this case, i.e. with this specific group of players, their expected opposition, and the relatively large group of [at least, somewhat redundant] PG’s still on the active roster [i.e. Curry, Billups, Rondo, Rose and Westbrook], when compared with the sheer number of wing players [i.e. combo OG/SF/PF] with good size, strength, relative quickness – at their respective positions – and the ability to: i. defend, ii. rebound, iii. shoot the ball efficiently from distance, and iv. be high volume scorers, e.g. like Iguodala, Gay and Durant].

 

When you dissect how a championship-winning team is actually put together, what you will find is that rarely – if ever – is it simply a conglomeration of the 12 players with the highest available WP48 numbers [e.g. Was Charles Barkley a member of the 1984 team? or, Was Isiah Thomas a member of the original Dream Team?] And, the exact reasons for this are rarely – if ever – rooted in the way these specific players performed in lead-up public scrimmage situations.

 

Unfortunately, numeric-based analysis of basketball which reads like this is what can create a poor image overall for “stats” gurus, in the eyes of elite level coaches the world over.

 

[Hopefully this comment meets with your approval.]

—————

Enjoy!

 

In general, Sebastian Pruiti does a terrific job breaking down in-game action in the NBA.

Stopping by his site, on a daily basis, during the season should be a mandatory exercise for all basketball aficionados.

For those who took the opportunity to do just that yesterday …

====================================

Post-Game Adjustments: Thabo Needs To Stay On Kobe

 

Above are two plays with similar situations (a Kobe Bryant pump fake), and you can see how Thabo and Jeff Green handle it differently. Thabo Sefolosha stayed down with his hands in his face, avoiding the foul, and forcing Bryant into a tough jumper. Jeff Green on the other hand bit on the pump fake hard and fouled Bryant, giving him 2 free points.

This is because Sefolosha has prepared himself for defending Kobe. He probably watched a ton of tape and knows when Kobe is going to throw up a pump fake, and knows when to stay on his feet. Jeff Green on the other hand is covering Bryant for the first time this series, and he was put in a tough position. He doesn’t know when Kobe is going to pump fake and how to handle it, and he bites on it.

If the Thunder are in a similar situation in Game 3, I expect to see Thabo on the court covering Kobe.

====================================

as it turns out, you were treated to a special preview of,

“Exactly how the Thunder SHOULD re-work their individuals match-ups against the Lakers, in order to change a close Away L into a solid Home W.”

———-

To wit:

Pleasantly surprised?

Hmmm …

Los Angeles Lakers 96 [Lead series 2-1]
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 101
Complete Game Info

After shifting onto Kobe Bryant, in the 4th quarter, Kevin Durant … that noted ”defensive specialist”, who certain stats gurus lambasted at the beginning of the season … was able to hold Black Mamba [i.e. who went for 39 points in Game 2] to a grand total of 2 points the rest of the way in this contest, on 1-8 shooting [i.e. the lone make coming on a driving layup in transition, 00:13.5], with 1 BA and 0 FTA’s – due, primarily, to his unique combination of “exceptional length” and “relative quickness”, at the wing position - in a concerted effort to make the other Lakers on the floor be the ones to beat the Thunder in last night’s game. 

———-

After going 0-for, during the initial few offensive trips, after this defensive “Switch” was made by Oklahoma …

Kobe and the ZenMaster responded, in-game, by having the Lakers’ most formidable scorer turn himself into a willing FACILITATOR, for the benefit of his teammates, i.e. driving into the lane, 1-on-1 against Durant, not trying “to finish plays” himself but, drawing “the help” and then “kicking out” to a series of open perimeter shooters [whose primary job then became knocking down clean "catch & shoots"].

Although the Lakers were able to find a certain degree of success with this tactic …

i.e. reducing an 8 point deficit [4:27, 82-90] to only 2, on two occasions, coming the down-the-stratch [1:03, 94-96; and, 00:13.5, 96-98] …

getting single 3′s from Derek Fisher [3:29] and Lamar Odom [2:00], and two long 2′s from Ron Artest [2:47 and 1:32], were not enough to close the gap which had been opened up, initially, by Oklahoma’s use of Durant [i.e. their best offensive player, by far] in this type of “defensive” manouvre. 

Heading into Game 4, it will now be most interesting to see:

i. If Scott Brooks … who, btw, was voted NBA COTY, on Wednesday … makes the fundamental mistake of begining the game with this same Durant vs Bryant individual defensive match-up, in effect;

and,

ii. What, if any, strategic or tactical adjustment Dr. Phil & Co. chooses to make, in response to the Durant vs Bryant individual defensive match-up …

since it might well be THE “difference-maker” in determing if the defending champs return home with a 3-1 series lead, or are tied 2-2.

———-

Although the internet is filled with ”so-called” basketball experts who seek to tell you after-the-fact exactly what:

i. Team X did against Team Y, or

ii. Player #1 did against Opponent Player #2, or

iii. Coach I did against Opponent Coach II,

iv. etc.,

in order to explain the specific outcome of an already completed game … THE SIMPLE FACT IS … the same thing CANNOT be said when it comes to identifying those relatively few individuals who exist in the on-line hoops community that can accurately tell you, IN ADVANCE, what specific “strategies and tactics” will work for specific teams, individual players and/or coaches, etc., if implemented in a specific game that is about to take place in the immediate future.   

Only authentic NBA experts can do that.

First.

Sincere thanks and commendations to Kevin Arnovitz for tackling this specific topic in the first place.

Second.

Although Kevin does a good job of providing his own insights on why he thinks Oklahoma City struggles to score during this specific series of possessions, from a technical basketball perspective, there are certain observations included in his analysis which could well be considered less than complete, or somewhat off base, given what was supposed to happen in each of these possessions during this sequence.

Third.

Hopefully Kevin sees this blog entry and approves of what’s been written here as a complementary analysis to his initial thoughts on this subject.

[at least, this is one of the specific goals of this exercise]

To wit:

[the Bolded regular type below marks the thoughts and ideas of yours truly]

================================================

Saturday night during the tight fourth quarter, we got a glimpse of the Thunder’s struggles when they went more than five minutes without draining a shot from the field. There’s a particularly ghastly stretch of seven possessions over which Oklahoma City generated only a single point on a Durant free throw.

What happened to the Thunder in those moments? Was Durant not finding shots he likes? Was it something akin to what the Lakers or Cavs experience at times when the other four guys on the floor stand around watching Bryant or James? Was Durant forcing the issue? Not forcing it enough?

Possession 1 (5:35)
Inefficient offensive units often have a tendency to squander a good 10 seconds before getting into their sets. Finding good shots against a defense as stingy as Cleveland’s is a tough business, and the more time you budget to generate those looks the better. By milking 10 seconds off the clock, you also let your opponent off the hook because it requires far less energy to defend for 14 seconds than 24 seconds.

On this possession, rookie combo guard James Harden has the ball up top. It appears that the Thunder might be running a pin-down with Russell Westbrook on the right side to free up Durant, but if that’s the case, Westbrook misses Durant’s defender, Anthony Parker, altogether. When Durant gets the pass up top and begins working against Parker, James leaves Harden to double team. No surprise there.

Durant, sometimes criticized for being an unwilling passer, kicks the ball out to Harden, who passes up the 3-pointer (he’s a 37.7 percent shooter from that distance). Harden instead works off the dribble, but it isn’t long before he tosses the grenade back to Durant with the clock expiring. Durant has to settle for a long, contested shot from beyond the arc:

 

—————————————————–

The most important things at work in Poss. #1 are the following:

- OkC initiated this set play by making a high wing pass, from their PG/Westbrook to their OG/Harden, at the 17 sec mark on the shot clock [i.e. 7 rather than 10 secs into the possession]

- Cleveland’s individual defensive match-ups are in a cross-match scenario with James/SF checking Harden/OG and Parker/OG checking Durant/SF

- when a 1-3 pin down screen is executed on the baseline it takes time to run properly

- the first error which occurs in the Thunder’s execution of the play involves Ibaka not recognizing immediately that he is supposed to be located on the ball side of the floor [i.e. in the low post], not on the weak side

- Durant fails to set up his cut properly by engaging his individual check with a mis-direction move going towards the basket before attempting to use the screen by Westbrook

- Westbrook fails to execute a mis-direct cut, as well, prior to setting his pin down screen for Durant in the weak side corner

- Westbrook does a solid job of jump stopping into his pin down screening position

- Durant does a very poor job of using Westbrook’s screen properly [i.e. to either: i. curl into the lane vs a trailing defender; or, ii. flare out to the wing vs a cheating-up-the-middle defender]

* This is an error of inexperience committed by Durant.

- Westbrook cuts to the left corner properly, in order to clear out the right side of the floor for Durant’s isolation vs Parker

- Parker does a solid job of recognizing OkC’s set play and influences Durant back towards the middle of the floor where his “early help” … i.e. James, who is sagging off Harden [3FG% = 37.7] … is waiting

- instead of “facing up” immediately vs Parker … which is precisely what Durant SHOULD have done, in this situation … KD executes a crab dribble toward the middle of the key, where James is waiting for him [i.e. playing right into Cleveland's defensive strength in this specific scenario and abandoning the right side of the floor where the original isolation play was intended to be run by the Thunder]

* This is an error of inexperience commited by Durant.

- When James comes to double team Durant, KD does a good job of recognizing this and kicks out properly to Harden

- Westbrook and Ibaka do a good job of recognizing properly that they should cut to the right side of the floor in response to Durant’s pass to Harden

- Harden does a poor job of being patient with the ball on the perimeter and … instead of taking his time with a delayed shot fake vs James followed by a quick drive into the lane, after Westbrook has cleared out towards the right corner … rushes his fake, then, hurriedly drives back towards the middle of the key before Ibaka and Westbrook are in their proper positions

* This is an error of inexperience committed by Harden.

- Durant then fails to recognize the situation properly and, instead of spacing out towards the right foul line extended, does nothing and stands still at the top of the key [i.e. TOTK] beyond the arc, which allows his check to, both, [i.] provide “early help” vs Harden’s middle drive AND [ii.] be able to recover to effectively contest KD’s perimeter jump shot

* This is an error of inexperience committed by Durant. 

—————————————————–

Possession 2 (4:46)
Another half-hearted down screen for Durant, this time by Jeff Green. Now might be a good time to send some film to the Thunder supporting cast of Kendrick Perkins laying out for Boston’s perimeter scorers. Space matters, and the more room a team can generate for its primary scorer to work, the more efficient that offense is going to run. Fortunately for Durant, Serge Ibaka gets himself between Durant and Parker. This gives Durant one of his better looks at the basket in the fourth quarter, though it’s not wide open. Why not?

Check out Shaquille O’Neal! You won’t see him step up to challenge a shooter on a pick-and-roll very often, but here he sticks a big limb in Durant’s face:

—————————————————–

The most important things at work in Poss. #2 are the following:

- OkC is executing a basic NBA set play referred to as “Zipper, 35″

- Westbrook does a poor job of initially taking his dribble to the foul line extended, from where this set play is supposed to originate

* This is an error of experience committed by Westbrook.

- When Green first sets up to execute his stationary ball side elbow down screen for Durant he [i.e. Green] is not being guarded properly by his defender [i.e. with Hickson between him and the basket, while denying him an easy entry pass] and should have immediately abandoned his designated screening assignment in favour of calling for the direct entry pass from Westbrook  

* This is an error of inexperience committed by Green.

- When Durant uses this screen by Green he does a poor job of initially mis-directing his defender by either posting up strong or faking a cut away from his intended direction toward the TOTK [i.e. this is specifically what prevents Durant from gaining any separation from parker]

* This is an error of inexperience committed by Durant.

- Ibaka does a good job setting a solid pick for Durant at the TOTK

- Parker does a good job of “fighting over” this pick

- O’Neal does a good job of “contesting” Durant’s pull-up jump shot

- Durant does a poor job of:

i. Turning the corner to attack O’Neal off the dribble for a quick drive to the basket; or,

ii. Turning the corner, facing up, then being patient to properly assess Cleveland’s defensive rotation

Instead of taking a hurried pull-up 2PT jump shot, in this instance, against a “contesting” O’Neal, Durant should have waited for Ibaka to complete his “roll” to the basket … which would have occupied Gibson and/or Hickson … and then executed a “throwback pass” to Westbrook [who was spotting up on the perimeter along with Green/3FG% = 43.2]

* This is an error of inexperience committed by Durant.

—————————————————–

Possession 3 (4:23)
It’s not a coincidence that Oklahoma City draws a foul early in the possession. Notice how much more quickly and decisively they challenge Cleveland, as Durant makes Parker chase him from the moment they cross the time line?

After the inbound, though, the Thunder have a difficult time freeing up Durant. Throw some credit Anthony Parker’s way. Time and time again in the fourth quarter, he dodges Thunder picks, not yielding an inch to Durant. There’s a telling moment at the 10-second mark. Watch:

See how Westbrook picks up his dribble? He assumes that he’ll lob a simple entry pass to Durant, but Parker is doing such a good job denying that pass that Westbrook has to swing the ball over to Sefolosha in order to get his dribble back on the return. At that point, Westbrook has to freelance, and Daniel Gibson — yes that Daniel Gibson — blocks his runner as the clock expires.

—————————————————–

The most important things at work in Poss. #3 are the following:

- Because Durant had experienced difficulty being able to free himself up on the perimeter for each of the previous 2 possessions by initially coming off screens/picks set by his teammates, on this trip OkC decided to first have KD set a screen, himself, in hopes of creating more initial separation from his defensive check

- Parker does an excellent job of:

i. Following Cleveland’s specific game-plan vs Durant and remembered not to “switch and/or even momentarily help off” him;

ii. “Fighting over” the attempted “Big-to-little Hand-off pass and Pop-out” from Green to Durant; and,

iii. Fouling Durant to prevent this specific action from generating an open/uncontested shot for OkC

[Please Note: When the Thunder use Green ... i.e. checked by Hickson ... to set a "high middle pick" for Durant and "pop out to the perimeter", it works much better [i.e. by creating better spacing on the floor], compared to when they use Ibaka … i.e. checked by O’Neal … to set this “pick and roll” to the basket.]

After the ensuing inbounds pass is made to westbrook …

- Ibaka does a poor job of setting two stationary screens for Durant [i.e. 1st - going to the basket; 2nd - going to the ball side wing]

- Durant does a poor job of reading his defender properly and then using either of Ibaka’s 2 screens …

i.e. when Durant first cuts to the basket/baseline, Parker does not follow him completely; but, instead, stops on low side of Ibaka’s screen and waits for him to re-use Ibaka’s 2nd screen

- the inactivity of Green and Sefolosha on the weak side of the floor, tells the Cleveland defenders located there that Durant has no intention of coming out from this initial cut to the left side of the floor

[Please Note: In general, Cleveland did an excellent job of scouting the Thunder's set plays for this game.]

- Parker then influences Durant to come up the inside of Ibaka’s 2nd screen and does a good job of “trailing on his hip” to contest the initial entry pass from Westbrook, as Durant attempts to curl around Ibaka and move out to the right wing position   

- Durant failed to make the proper read, given the way that Parker was defending him, and should have cut up the middle of the lane to the TOTK, in order to receive an uncontested entry pass from Westbrook

* This is an error of inexperience committed by Durant. 

- Westbrook does a poor job of picking up his dribble when he sees that there is no uncontested wing entry pass to Durant available on the ball side of the floor

* This is an error of inexperience committed by Westbrook.

- Green and Sefolosha do a poor job of spacing out on the weak side of the floor … i.e. one should have been positioned above the the foul line extended, while the other was below the foul line extended [either in the low post or the deep left corner]

* This is an error of inexperience by both Green and Sefalosha.

- When Sefolosha receives the pass from Westbrook, he makes a hurried return pass, instead of using his dribble to attack the defense towards the “open side” of the floor with 8 seconds remaining on the shot clock

* This is an error of inexperience by Sefolosha.

- When Westbrook receives the return pass from Sefolosha he reacts properly by using his dribble to attack the right/open side of the floor

- Durant fails to move appropriately, however, on the perimeter and, instead of sliding further towards the right corner … in order to occupy his defender … simply stands and watches as Westbrook initiates a 1-on-1 attack vs Gibson, without Durant being in an effective offensive rebounding position

* This is an error of inexperience committed by Durant.  

—————————————————–

Possession 4 (3:43)
First Ibaka rushes out of his pick for Westbrook, which gives the Thunder’s point guard nothing. Then the ball goes over to the other side of floor where Green tries to execute to dribble-handoff for Durant. Parker sniffs it out and stays directly on Durant’s left hip. With both Green’s defender (J.J. Hicks0n) and Parker attending to Durant, Green heaves up a jumper a step inside the 3-point line. It’s an open look, but Green is only a 29 percent shooter between 16 and 23 feet. With 12 seconds left on the shot clock and at least 10 feet between Green and O’Neal underneath the basket, why not step in?

Oklahoma City gets an open jumper for Ibaka off the inbound, one of their better opportunities of an otherwise barren stretch. But that shot rims out as well.

—————————————————–

The most important things at work in Poss. #4 are the following:

- OkC is executing a basic Horns Formation, ”1-5 Middle Pick and Roll/pop”

- Ibaka and Green set good initial picks for Westbrook

- Gibson does a good job ”fighting under” Ibaka’s pick, as he should vs a 26.5% 3PT-shooter [i.e. Westbrook]

- Ibaka does a poor job of stopping his roll toward the basket at the front of the rim and, instead, extends his roll further, almost into the left low post position … which allows O’Neal to effectively seal him on the low side and eliminate a “high-low” pass from Green

* This is an error of inexperience committed by Ibaka.

- Westbrook makes the proper read and executes a “throwback pass” to Green

- Green [3FG% = 43.7] fails to face-up to the basket and, instead, rushes his dribble attack towards the left side of the floor against a still closing-out [and, therefore, highly vilnerable] Hickson, in order to initiate a dribble-hand-off pass with Durant

* This is an error of inexperience committed by Green.

- Durant does a poor job of working against his own defender … e.g. by first stopping then starting, or mis-directing his initial cut against Parker … to create space for himself, when receiving and then coming off this dribble-hand-off pass 

[Please Note: Durant is not "helped" at all by the poor position of Ibaka, who mistakenly rolled into the left low post position.]

* This is an error of inexperience committed by both Ibaka and Durant.

- Green then rushes his wide open long distance 2PT jump shot … with 10+ secs left on the shot clock … when Hickson [in error] and Parker [correctly] both go with Durant … and, turns down the opportunity to drive the ball toward an undefended basket

* This is an error of inexperience committed by Green.

—————————————————–

Possession 5 (3:08)
Basketball can be a cruel game. The Thunder finally gets Durant some space to drive off a high screen from Ibaka, but Durant loses control of the handle as he scampers into the paint.

—————————————————–

The most important things at work in Poss. #5 are the following:

- OkC now decides to shift Durant into one of the “picking” positions in their Horns Formation, in an effort to create a better scoring opportunity for him

- As was mentioned earlier, however, whenever the Thunder use Ibaka to set this High Middle Pick on Durant and, subsequently “roll” him towards the basket … while Ibaka is being checked by O’Neal … it simply creates “bad spacing” on the floor [as you should be able to see clearly with the congested lane, in this instance] which then results in Durant losing control of his dribble and a Turnover for the Thunder 

* This is an error of inexperience committed by Scott Brooks.

—————————————————–

Possession 6 (2:57)
Sefolosha has undoubtedly made the Thunder a better basketball team, but here’s where he hurts Oklahoma City a bit on the offensive end. Watch the action underneath the basket. Pay special attention to how Durant runs his man, Parker, off Green, then flashes to the foul line:

Notice how James picks up Durant without incident while Parker recovers? It’s a luxury the Cavs have because they’re more than willing to live with an open Sefolosha on the weak side perimeter for a second or two. Now imagine that’s Ray Allen, Jamal Crawford, Vince Carter, [fill in sharpshooting 2 of your choice] spreading the floor? James has to at least think about that switch, maybe hesitate for a split second, lest Westbrook swing a skip pass to the open shooter on the wing. Either way, that baseline screen that disrupts Parker forces Cleveland to make a much more difficult choice and makes the Thunder much tougher to defend.

As it turns out, Durant is able to beat James off the dribble and draw a foul on O’Neal inside. He sinks one of two free throws for the Thunder’s only point of this stretch.

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The most important things at work in Poss. #6 are the following:

- OkC is executing a basic NBA set play with their other wing player and their 2 Bigs setting independent but coordinated screens for their scoring wing player, who starts his cut to the perimeter from beneath the basket … i.e. #1 [wing player] and #2 [Big 1] are baseline cross screens; #3 [Big 2] is a middle down [clean-up] screen

- Parker does a terrific job of fighting around Sefolosha’s 1st cscreen and then getting between Durant and Green on the 2nd screen

- Durant recognizes this properly and changes his direction to cut up the middle of the lane off screen #3 [by Ibaka]

- As was mentioned earlier, however, Cleveland has done an outstanding job of scouting OkC, in advance of this game, and has implemented a series of highly specific schematic defensive “counters” designed to nullify the first option of a specific set play like this by the Thunder …

i.e. in this instance, the defensive counter calls for James to initiate a designated “switch” between the 2 defenders assigned to check the weak side wing player [i.e. Sefolosha] and the shooter/scorer [i.e. Durant] attempting to use the middle down screen.

- By all appearances, OkC was caught off guard by this strategy … i.e. notice how Ibaka attempts to jump out to his right, in order to still try and screen Parker [who was moving to defender Sefolosha on the right wing], even though he was no longer involved in defending against Durant … and was totally unprepared to attack the Cavaliers’ counter in an appropriate way

[e.g. Ibaka should seal O'Neal at the front of the rim, as Durant clears out high to the TOTK, and then demand the ball in the middle of the lane to work 1-on-1 against a much slower interior defender]

* This is an error of inexperience committed by either Ibaka or Scott Brooks.

- When Durant eventually drives to the right side of the floor against James and draws three defenders towards himself, he then fails to execute a kic-out pass to a wide open Sefolosha or Green, positioned properly in the right and left corners, respectively

* This is an error of inexperience committed by Durant.

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Possession 7 (2:24)
Oklahoma City clearly likes what it saw on the previous possession because they run the same set. The only difference? Sefolosha is set up on the ball side this time around, which prevents James from helping out Parker on the recovery. Unfortunately for Durant & Co., the action down low doesn’t generate nearly the amount of separation that Durant was able to get the time before:

If the Thunder could stitch together the best attributes of Possession #6 (separation) with Possession #7 (spacing), they’d have a little chalkboard jewel. Instead, Durant misses short on a rushed attempt with Parker in close pursuit. 

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The most important things at work in Poss. #7 are the following:

- OkC is executing a basic NBA set play which involves their 2 Bigs setting coordinated staggered screens for their preferred shooting/scoring wing player, to cut to either the TOTK or the weak side wing, while their non-preferred wing player is positioned in the ball side corner, as a decoy

[Please Note: It is no coincidence that Ibaka sets the 2nd screen in this set play, since it works much better when an immobile defender like O'Neal is forced to help defend against the 2nd obstacle in the way of the shooter/scorer's defensive check.]

- In this case, Durant does a much better job of changing his initial direction, in order to properly mis-direct his individual defender, and then also does a better job of reading the eventual route his defender takes in order to recover on him, by going around the 2nd screen … either: i. curling vs the trail [which is what happens here], or ii. flaring vs the up-the-middle-cheat 

** This is an instance of sound play calling by the Thunder’s head coach/Scott Brooks and Point Guard/Russell Westbrook.

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It’s Early Yet
NBA defenders are a wily bunch and Oklahoma City is still an incredibly young team. They’re just beginning to tackle the inordinately difficult task of finding open shots against the world’s longest, most agile and most intuitive defenders. Right now, those defenders are zeroing in on Kevin Durant. That’s going to force everyone on the Thunder to be more resourceful. The coaching staff will have to find new ways to get Durant open. Durant’s teammates will have to learn how to run better interference between Durant and defensive aces like Anthony Parker. Most of all, Durant will have to figure out how to make defenses pay for overplaying him. It turns out there’s some relevant precedence for this. Remember the Cavs’ 2007 50-32 squad that made the Finals? That team was 19th in offensive efficiency. And while LeBron James has always been an instinctive passer — something you can’t really say about Durant — it took some time for him to establish that trust with teammates. Durant’s just getting started. The strides we’ve seen Durant make in his game over the past three months will likely translate into an improvement in his team’s overall offensive efficiency.  

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The most important things at work here are the following:

- A major part of the reason why defenders are able to zero in on Kevin Durant is due to the fact that OkC, on occasion, attempts to run as many as 7 consecutive possessions directly through their principal scorer, in the first place

- This fact is then compounded when several of their set plays, as seen here, are properly executed without involving more than 2 or 3 passes and, in general, do not require other players to touch the ball, make plays, passes and reads which can create open shot opportunities for themselves or their uncovered teammates [including Kevin Durant]

- Learning how to “run better interference for Durant” may not in fact be a major component of the Thunder’s current struggles to score the ball with greater efficiency … at least, in direct comparison with:

#1. Improving Kevin Durant’s own ability to set-up his individual defender properly with initial mis-direction cuts to make better use of the different screens and picks which are already being set for him by his teammates;

#2. Improving the present abilities of their exceptionally young core of players … e.g. Durant, Green, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden, and Sefolosha … to make the proper individual “reads” involved in playing the game of basketball in an efficient way, in concert with one another, at the highest level possible.

#3. Improving Scott Brooks’ understanding of offensive basketball and identifying properly what specific strategies and techniques will in fact work best for the individual players on his roster, given the unique skill-sets which they possess, as some of the most talented young players in the NBA today.  

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At this relatively early stage of their development curve, if the Oklahoma City Thunder can continue to make these subtle improvements in the way they approach the offensive side of the game, there is little doubt that they are poised to become a solid contending team in the Western Conference for years to come.

… it’s one of this corner’s all-time favourite pieces of music:

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and a source of real inspiration in connection with the view here towards today’s article [PG warning for language] from Matt Moore, on the role of “advanced stats” in the modern game of hoops vs good ole fashion Basketball Acumen.

At some point in the not-too-distant future NBA fans should expect to see the ranking of the top teams in the Western Conference to look something like this:

1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Portalnd Trail Blazers
4. Oklahoma City Thunder

on account of the fine work being done by Sam Presti [GM].

Thunder Notebook: James Harden lives his dream
Westbrook’s dominant play and Harden’s big debut got the most attention. But many at the RDV Sportsplex were raving about 19-year-old Serge Ibaka, who started at center for the Thunder.

Ibaka moved impressively and thrived thanks to his athleticism, connecting on 6-of-8 shots and notching a pair of blocks. The No. 24 pick of the 2009 Draft, he played in Spain’s top league a year ago and averaged 7.1 points and 4.5 rebounds in 15.5 minutes of play. That’s a healthy chunk of playing time for a player so young to be granted in Europe.

“He’s learning a new language, learning new rules, learning new teammates,” said assistant Brian Keefe, who is coaching Oklahoma City in the Summer League. “This is invaluable for him to learn how to play with all the guys and gain familiarity with our culture, our organization, how we like things done and how we teach things. I think we’ll see him keep progressive because he really likes to work. He’s got the commitment.”

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For those of you who might not know exactly who Mr. Ibaka happens to be:

Yes, the commentary is not in English … but, these two words are almost universally understood today across the Global Hoops Community: “Kevin Garnett …”

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The following 10 players are as good as any young core in the NBA today:

No. Player Name Pos Hgt Wght Age [as of Dec 31 2009]

1 Russell Westbrook PG 6-3 190 21
2 Shaun Livingston PG 6-7 185 24
3 James Harden OG 6-5 218 20
4 Thabo Sefolosha OG-SF 6-7 215 25
5 Kyle Weaver OG-SF 6-6 201 23
6 Kevin Durant SF 6-10 215 21
7 Jeff Green PF 6-9 235 23
8 D.J. White PF 6-9 251 23
9 Serge Ibaka C 6-10 220 20
10 BJ Mullens C 7-0 275 20

Oklahoma City has a team entered in the Orlando Pro Summer League that kicked off action yesterday.

Box Score [Jul 06 2009]

Here’s the link to the live feed of their game this evening, if you’d like to take a gander for yourself at what some of these young men actually look like.

* Tyler Hansbrough makes his summer league debut. Those who think that Larry Bird made a mistake with the No. 13 pick in the 2009 NBA Draft are going to be in for a surprise this season.

* Colangelo works fast and hard to get Turkoglu. Hedo is many things but a player who “creates” shots working off the dribble he is not. Expect THAT from him, without the benefit of a pick and you’ll be in for disappointment Raptors fans.

* What’s next? As the old adage goes: “Some of the best deals a team ever makes are the ones it doesn’t make, in the first place.” Solace for Blazers fans in the aftermath of winning losing the Hedo Turkoglu Sweepstakes.

* Buyer Beware! Things are not always as they first appear to be, when it comes to advantageous signings during the NBA’s free agency period.  

* Nick Collison says Thunder is ready for the next step. Sleep on Oklahoma City this coming season at your own peril.