khandor’s sports blog

Toronto Raptors 112
DENVER NUGGETS 130
Tue Nov 17 2009 - Game Scoreboard

With both Hedo Turkoglu [SF, 6-10, 220] and Reggie Evans [PF, 6-8, 245] out of the line-up, the Raptors were “physically” over-matched vs the Nuggets in last night’s game.

ASSESSING INDIVIDUAL MATCH-UPS BASED ON SIZE, STRENGTH, AGILITY AND EXPLOSIVE QUICKNESS

Defensively, from Denver’s perspective

Nene * [6-11, 250, i.e. size and agility] is a terrific check vs Chris Bosh [6-10, 230], anytime that CB4 does not step-off from the block. 

Kenyon Martin * [6-9, 240, i.e. size, strength, agility and explosive quickness] is a terrific check vs Andrea Bargnani [7-0, 250]. Period.

The combination of Nene and K-Mart is a terrific pairing vs CB4 and Bargnani … since: [i] Andrea is a perimeter Center who cannot take Kenyon into the low-post to do damage, and [ii] whenever CB4 steps out to the perimeter it then leaves Toronto with ZERO low-post game.

Chris Andersen * [6-10, 228, i.e. agility and explosive quickness] is a terrific check vs either [a] Amir Johnson * [6-9, 210] or [b] Rasho Nesterovic [7-0, 255.

Arron Afflalo * [6-5, 215, i.e. strength and agility] is a solid check vs DeMar DeRozan * [6-7, 220].

Defensively, from Toronto’s Perspective

Carmelo Anthony * [6-8, 230, i.e. size, strength and agility] is a nightmare for the Raptors. Period.

Chauncey Billups * [6-3, 202, i.e. strength] is a difficult check for the Raptors. Period.

JR [Earl] Smith * [6-6, 220] i.e. expolosive quickness] is a difficult check for the Raptors, when they try to go with Marco Belinelli [6-5, 200, i.e. less strength and less quickness; more offensive skill] instead of Sonny Weems * [6-6, 203, i.e. as much strength and quickness; less offensive skill].

Ty Lawson * [5-11, 195, i.e. quickness] is a difficult check for the Raptors. Period.

Physically, Denver is a superior team to Toronto and simply worn down the Raptors’ best players in the 2nd [36-35/+1], 3rd [33-25/+8] and 4th [33-23/+10] quarters.

There’s no magic answer when these two teams play.

Last night:

Denver generated 105 offensive possessions [with just 3 O-Rebs].
Toronto generated 117 offensive possessions [with 19 O-Rebs].

Denver shot 61.5 [FG%].
Toronto shot 46.2 [FG%].

Denver generated 68 points in the paint.
Toronto generated 34 points in the paint.

Denver scored points at a rate of 1.238 per possession.
Toronto scored points at a rate of 0.957 per possession.

When a team like Toronto [which scores alot of points per game and yields alot of points per game, in return] plays a team like Denver [which scores alot of points per game and yields alot of points per game, in return ... but, also has physically gifted players [*] at several positions] then Toronto is going to end up on the short end of the scoreboard a majority of the time.

When Toronto has faced a Quality Opponent [.500+] this season which has not:

i. Been in the 2nd half of a back-2-back; or,
ii. Made the mistake of playing their 2 hulking centers together vs the combo of Bosh and Bargnani;

the Dinos have performed in the following way:

In general, teams that surrender more than 1.0 points per possession, vs a specific set of opponents, while scoring fewer than 1.0 points per possession themselves, have too many players who are “physically” inferior to their individual counterparts when matched-up with those teams.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 11 – at Denver [Tue Nov 17]

At Denver last season [Dec 03 2008] is where things turned ugly for the Raptors, when Sam Mitchell was fired following a lopsided loss. This season’s Nuggets should prove to be too much for the Dinos, as well, with several individual match-up advantages. Although not as deep as last season’s team, Denver should still be one of the better squads in the WC this year, if their key players can remain healthy.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 4-7

Denver jumped over several teams in the Western Conference last season, adding Chauncey Billups to their line-up.

Their challenge this summer was to resign Chris Anderson and then keep the bulk of their team together … thereby, allowing this existing group of players to grow, as a unit … which they have now done for the most part.

i.e. Nuggets re-sign Johan Petro

When you take an Early look at NBA rosters: Western Conference, and:

* Remove the question mark beside Johan Petro’s name, then,
* Remove Linas Kleiza’s name altogether

what you should see is a depth chart which looks like this:

PG: Billups/#2, Carter/#7, Lawson/#11 
OG: Smith/#4, Afflalo/#8, Carter
SF: Anthony/#1, Player #10?
PF: Martin/#5, Balkman/#9, Allen/#13
C: Nene/#3, Anderson/#6, Petro/#12

and still leaves room for one more player to be signed, before the season starts, as a competent back-up for their “superstar” [i.e. Melo], at the SF position.

If Mark Warkentien, Rex Chapman & Co. are able to accomplish this last task, there is now every reason to believe that the Nuggets will remain one of the elite teams in the Western Conference this season.

FINAL SCORE: LOS ANGELES 103, Denver 106
Complete Game Info

———-

Just because Phil Jackson is a Hall of Fame coach does NOT mean that he is without fault when it comes to seeing a game accurately, at all times, as it unfolds.

Just like everyone else, the ZenMaster can make errors in judgment, once-in-a-while, which then come back to haunt his team.

Prime examples from last night’s game:

* Andrew Bynum [+7] should not be playing only 18 minutes, when the Lakers have to face a front line combo of Nene [-9], Kenyon Martin [-7] & Chris Anderson [+12]. When Bynum is paired with Pau Gasol [-5] vs Nene & Martin, Baby Huey should be checking Nene, with Gasol checking Martin, not vice versa. Despite his high skill level, Gasol is not ‘athletic’ enough to provide what the Lakers need at the Center position in this series for major minutes each game; Andrew Bynum is.

* Lamar Odom [0] is one of only two Lakers who SHOULD be checking Carmelo Anthony [+9]. Luke Walton [0] is the other. Neither Kobe Bryant [0] nor Trevor Ariza [-11] should be trying, in vain, to handle this assignment … given the very physical way Melo is playing the game now, at both ends of the floor but, especially, on Offense. Melo is simply too powerful, physically, for either Bryant or Ariza; while Odom, or Walton, is strong enough to hold his ground on the boards vs Anthony.  

* Josh Powell [DNP-CD] is the single best individual match-up the Lakers have vs Kenyon Martin … and, it’s a MAJOR error in judgment that Phil Jackson has chosen not to use JP in this capacity, thus far, in this series.

* Whether Sasha Vujacic [+2] is 0-4 [FGM-FGA] or not, he SHOULD be playing more than only 6 minutes vs this version of the Nuggets … as the Lakers are in serious need of [i] the Energy, [ii] Size at the Guard position, and [iii] the overall Level of Irritation he brings to the table when he’s in the mix for their team in a substantial way.

* George Karl’s decision to use Linas Kleiza [+16] for extended minutes last night was a sound strategic move … especially, in the latter half of the 2nd quarter, when the Lakers lost control of the game … to which Phil Jackson failed to adjust properly, e.g. by using a line-up which resembles this one:

PG - Bryant vs Billups [+2]
OG - Walton vs Anthony
SF - Odom vs Kleiza
PF - Powell vs Martin, and
C - Bynum vs Nene

and puts individual Lakers into defensive/rebounding match-ups that are solid fits for their physical abilities & skill levels.  

———-

In general:

* The Lakers have significant match-up advantages vs the Nuggets … but, not unless Phil Jackson recognizes the need to use his personnel accordingly.

* Coaches can never win games for their teams; only players can do that. However, poor coaching decisions can MOST DEFINITELY lose games for their teams. Last night’s outcome was Exhibit A for the LA Lakers.

Phil Jackson will need to improve his work, in this regard, if the Lakers are to advance past the Nuggets, in this series.

Current Odds To Win the Series
Denver Nuggets +231
LOS ANGELES LAKERS -251

Although Denver has played very well to this point in the Playoffs, they do not enjoy a host of different match-up advantages vs Los Angeles, like they did vs Dallas and New Orleans.

In particular, the specific spots where the Nuggets have possessed major advantages … i.e. at the PG [although that might be difficult for CP3 lovers to believe] and PF/C positions, plus in terms Quality Depth, overall … will not be the case in this series:

Point Guard

* Billups’ game is based on strength, not quickness. Whereas Aaron Brooks was too quick for Derek Fisher … physical strength & guile just happen to be two strengths of D-Fish, as well.

* Anthony Carter is a highly capable Back-up PG. The combination of Jordan Farmar & Shannon Brown is equally formidable.

Power Forward/Center

* Nene, Kenyon Martin, Chris Anderson & Johan Petro is a versatile and highly effective set of Bigs. So, too, however, is Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom & Josh Powell.  

Quality Depth

* JR Smith, Anderson, Carter, Linas Kleiza, Petro, Jason Hart & Renaldo Balkman are a stout and highly serviceable Group of 7, coming off the bench. However, they are not a superior force, in comparison with the Lakers’ corresponding re-inforcements, i.e. Sasha Vujacic, Odom, Farmar, Luke Walton, Powell, Brown & DJ Mbenga.  

———-

Please Note:
At the moment, the Lakers are +220 to Win the 2008-2009 NBA Title. For those so inclined, this is a VERY GOOD proposition.

Coming out of the annual All-Star Break and heading toward this week’s Trade Deadline  [Feb 19, 3:00 PM] … as different trade rumours swirl about the NBA [on-line & elsewhere] … it can be instructive to assess where certain marquee players rank amongst their brethren, at the specific position[s] they play the best.

When considering Big Men [i.e. Centers/C and Power Forwards/PF], it is also imperative to understand what their fundamental role is within the NBA game and what qualities are the most important for them to exhibit on a consistent basis, if their respective team’s are going to have a legitimate chance to win a League Championship, now or in the not-too-distant future.

Big Man Ranking Criteria

* Leadership
* Rebounding [which includes: i. Defensive; ii. Offense]
* Team Defense [which includes: i. Interior Rotations; ii. Perimeter Rotations; iii. Execution of Pick & Roll Techniques; iv. Transition Effectiveness; v. Shot blocking off the ball; Switching off the ball]
* Low-Mid Post Scoring
* Passing Effectiveness
* Individual Low-Mid Post Defense [which includes Shot blocking on the ball]
* Individual Perimeter Defense
* Screening Effectiveness
* Picking Effectiveness
* Perimeter Scoring
* Offensive Transition
* Physical Traits: i. Quickness; ii. Agility; iii. Explosive Power; iv. Size & Strength
* Psycho-Emotional Traits: i. Stability; ii. Intelligence; iii. Intensity; iv. Toughness 

These are the current rankings, according to this corner:

Use the “comments” section to provide your feedback.

Macro-analysis:
* 3FG% … TOR 33.3, Den 50.0
* FGM … TOR 8, Den 11
* FTM … TOR 10, Den 20
* Turnovers … TOR 11, Den 7
* Steals … TOR 3, Den 7

Micro-analysis:

(in the 2:36 of the 4thQ, when the game was decided)

- Regular Time-out (Denver) … after Anthony Parker’s 3-pt shot gave Toronto a 2-pt lead (98-96)

Den: Anthony Parker fouls Allen Iverson (driving to the basket) who makes 2 FT’s (TOR 98, Den 98)

TOR: Right ‘Elbow Pick’ Series (Jose Calderon & Chris Bosh); Ball Reversal; Block-to-block cut by Bosh; Left Post Isolation for Bosh (vs Kenyon Martin); Post Entry Pass (Parker to Bosh); ‘Hold & Drive’ Middle (Bosh vs Martin); Help by Carmelo Anthony (checking Jamario Moon, at the Top of the Key); Bosh kicks to Moon; Moon, 3-pt Jump Shot (6 secs on the Shot Clock): Missed; Defensive Rebound (Marcus Camby)

Den: Left ‘Wing Pick’ Series (JR Smith on Iverson); Iverson drives baseline (vs Calderon, who switched with Parker), and is met by Bosh’s help (off of Martin); Iverson kicks (tough Skip Pass) to Anthony, isolated on the Right Wing (vs Moon); Catch, Jab right, 1 Dribble Left, Pick-up, Shot Fake, Steps Into the Defender and gets fouled (Moon); Anthony makes 2 FT’s (TOR 98, Den 100) 

TOR: Right Side High Dummy ‘2-Man Game’ (Calderon & Bosh); Left Side ‘Slice’ Series (i.e. Moon curls over Bosh’s FT Line screen, Option 1); Parker curls over the double Big staggered screen (Nesterovic, Left Block; Bosh Left Elbow), Option 2; Calderon passes to Bosh (Left ‘Wing Isolation’ vs Martin), Option 3; Bosh drives left baseline (vs Martin) and is met by Camby’s help (off of Nesterovic … who forgot to cut high to the Left Elbow, clearing a baseline path to the hoop for Bosh); ‘Wrap Around’ Steal by Martin (who made a TERRIFIC DEFENSE PLAY!); Turnover by Bosh

Den: Left Wing/Post ‘2-Man Game’ (Iverson & Anthony vs Parker & Moon); ‘Ball Reversal’ Pass (to Camby); Return Pass to Iverson; Left ‘Wing Isolation’ (Anthony vs Moon); Wing Entry Pass (Iverson to Anthony); Anthony, Jabs Right, 1 Dribble Left, Picks Up, Elevates for a Jump Shot, is met by Moon (in the air, TERRIFIC DEFENSIVE PLAY by Moon), kicks to the Top of The Key to Iverson (who was left alone by Parker, sinking off to help vs Anthony’s ‘Wing Isolation’); Great Screen by Camby vs Parker (who was trapped below the FT Line); Iverson, ‘Catch & Shoot’ 3-pt shot (TOR 98, Den 103) 

TOR: Regular Time-out (1:17) … Kapono subs in for Nesterovic … ‘Screen the Screener’ Series for Kapono (coming to the Top of The Key), Option 1; Parker cuts to the Right Corner for the ‘Strong Side Triangle’ Series; Wing Entry Pass (by Calderon) to Parker; Right ‘Wing/Corner Middle Pick’ Series (’2-Man Game’ with Parker & Bosh, Calderon spotting up at the Top of The Key); Parker drives Middle as Bosh rolls to the basket, vs Martin’s ‘Show & Recover’ D; Parker Elevates to shoot, then decides to pass to Bosh (who is covered well by Martin), and then kicks out to Calderon at the Top of the Key; Right Wing Entry Pass (Calderon return pass to Parker); Post Entry Pass Attempt (Parker to Bosh); Steal by Martin (who made his 2nd TERRIFIC DEFENSIVE PLAY of this specific sequence) 

Den: Martin drives to the basket and gets fouled (Calderon, ‘Clear Path Foul’ … an horrendous call by experienced official Monty McCutcheon) … 2 FT’s and the ball; Martin makes both shots (TOR 98, Den 105) … 1:07

Den: High Left ‘Wing 2-Man Game/Pick’ Series (Iverson & Anthony vs Parker & Moon); Parker & Moon ‘trap’ vs Iverson (on the dribble to the Left Corner); Iverson passes back out to Anthony (in the high Left position vs Moon, who recovered out from the ‘trap’); ‘High Middle Pick’ Series (Anthony & Martin vs Moon & Bosh); Anthony drives Middle and has his Jump Shot blocked (Moon, with a TERRIFIC DEFENSIVE PLAY)

TOR: Break away dunk by Moon (TOR 100, Den 105) … 44.7 

Den: Anthony makes a Left Elbow Jump Shot vs Toronto’s ’Early Double-team’ Zone D (TOR 100, Den 107) … 21.1

TOR: 20-Second Time-out … Top of The Key Isolation (Bosh vs Martin; Bosh ‘Drives & Kicks’ to Parker (left Corner); Parker 3-pt Shot: Missed; Defensive Rebound (Camby/Iverson)

Den: Iverson gets fouled (Calderon) and makes 2 FT’s (TOR 100, Den 109)
TOR: Moon, 3-pt shot: Missed

“Kenyon Martin was the Player of The Game … with his defense against Bosh … You win games with ’stops’ more than you make shots … I think our defense won the game for us.” - George Karl (Head Coach, Denver Nuggets)

Next Game: vs Detroit, 49-20 (Wed Mar 26)