khandor’s sports blog

If you take a look at these 2 sets of video highlights from Friday night’s Toronto loss against Denver, what you should be able to see is that:

1. The Raptors used a specific 5-Man Unit for the defensive possession when Chauncey Billups made his step-back 3PT shot, in the Left Corner, to tie the score, 95-95, with 33.9 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter:

Jack [6-3, 200] vs Billups [6-3, 202], PG
DeRozan [6-7, 220] vs Carter [6-2, 195], PG
Weems [6-6, 205] vs Smith [6-6, 220], OG
Wright [6-7, 215] vs Anthony [6-8, 230], PF
Bosh [6-10, 245] vs Nene [6-11, 250], C

and,

2. The Raptors used the same 5-Man Unit when Carmelo Anthony missed his initial attempt at a game-winning jump shot … which came after Denver’s final time-out, trailing by 1 point … and was followed by the Nuggets’ offensive rebound, pass back to Anthony and his 2PT dagger that ultimately killed the home team:

Jack vs Carter [inbounds passer; 2nd screener for Smith]
DeRozan vs Smith [shooter cutting below the strong side staggered screens]
Weems vs Billups [receiver/passer positioned at the top of the key]
Wright vs Anthony [shooter isolated at the right elbow]
Bosh vs Nene [1st screener for Smith].

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QUESTION

What specific line-up SHOULD the Raptors have used instead of this one?

ANSWER

Weems [6-6, 205] vs Billups [6-3, 202]
DeRozan [6-7, 220] vs Carter [6-2, 195]
Wright [6-7, 215] vs Smith [6-6, 220]
Johnson [6-9, 210] vs Anthony [6-8, 230]
Bosh [6-10, 245] vs Nene [6-11, 250]

If the Raptors had played these last 2 defensive possessions with this different 5-Man Unit, in all likelihood:

Possession #1

Billups would not have been able to get his step-back 3PT jump shot off vs an equally quick but taller defender like Sonny Weems [shot No. 1]; 

and,

Possession #2

Carmelo Anthony would not have been able to get his stand-still 2PT jump shot off vs an equally quick but taller defender like Amir Johnson [i.e. shot No. 2]; and, if he was, then, Toronto would have been in much better position to retrieve the defensive rebound and prevent Anthony from getting off his 1 dribble going left 2PT jump shot … against a smaller defender like Jarrett Jack, or Antoine Wright [shot No. 3].

It really is astounding just how many times different NBA teams actually have the wrong individual match-ups on the floor during specific crunch-time possessions, and how often it can end up costing them a victory, in the process.

What exactly do you see …

when Tyreke Evans shoots the ball from the left wing position?

Yours truly sees J.R. Smith:

1. Getting into position to block out his individual check [i.e. Jon Brockman/PF];

2. As the shot is released, glancing over his left shoulder to observe any late change of direction by Brockman, on the weak side of the floor;

3. Stepping into Brockman’s path, in order to block him out;

4. Evans’ shot tickling the twine, as it passes just in front of the leading edge of the rim, on its downward arc towards the basket.

5. Smith glancing upwards, towards the basket, as the ball descends on its downward arc below the level of the rim, as if it had actually gone through the hoop.

———————————————

Instead of lampooning J.R. Smith for alleged inattentiveness and the mis-guided play he made, inbounding the ball after a non-made field goal attempt, like what some others have decided to do here … when he was fooled by an optical illusion, easily associated with the regular playing of the game … recognize what he actually did which was perfectly in accordance with being a good basketball player, whose assigned task involved blocking out an individual check, located on the weak side of the floor.

Kudos to Mr. Smith for doing his job properly, in this specific instance.

Toronto Raptors 112
DENVER NUGGETS 130
Tue Nov 17 2009 - Game Scoreboard

With both Hedo Turkoglu [SF, 6-10, 220] and Reggie Evans [PF, 6-8, 245] out of the line-up, the Raptors were “physically” over-matched vs the Nuggets in last night’s game.

ASSESSING INDIVIDUAL MATCH-UPS BASED ON SIZE, STRENGTH, AGILITY AND EXPLOSIVE QUICKNESS

Defensively, from Denver’s perspective

Nene * [6-11, 250, i.e. size and agility] is a terrific check vs Chris Bosh [6-10, 230], anytime that CB4 does not step-off from the block. 

Kenyon Martin * [6-9, 240, i.e. size, strength, agility and explosive quickness] is a terrific check vs Andrea Bargnani [7-0, 250]. Period.

The combination of Nene and K-Mart is a terrific pairing vs CB4 and Bargnani … since: [i] Andrea is a perimeter Center who cannot take Kenyon into the low-post to do damage, and [ii] whenever CB4 steps out to the perimeter it then leaves Toronto with ZERO low-post game.

Chris Andersen * [6-10, 228, i.e. agility and explosive quickness] is a terrific check vs either [a] Amir Johnson * [6-9, 210] or [b] Rasho Nesterovic [7-0, 255.

Arron Afflalo * [6-5, 215, i.e. strength and agility] is a solid check vs DeMar DeRozan * [6-7, 220].

Defensively, from Toronto’s Perspective

Carmelo Anthony * [6-8, 230, i.e. size, strength and agility] is a nightmare for the Raptors. Period.

Chauncey Billups * [6-3, 202, i.e. strength] is a difficult check for the Raptors. Period.

JR [Earl] Smith * [6-6, 220] i.e. expolosive quickness] is a difficult check for the Raptors, when they try to go with Marco Belinelli [6-5, 200, i.e. less strength and less quickness; more offensive skill] instead of Sonny Weems * [6-6, 203, i.e. as much strength and quickness; less offensive skill].

Ty Lawson * [5-11, 195, i.e. quickness] is a difficult check for the Raptors. Period.

Physically, Denver is a superior team to Toronto and simply worn down the Raptors’ best players in the 2nd [36-35/+1], 3rd [33-25/+8] and 4th [33-23/+10] quarters.

There’s no magic answer when these two teams play.

Last night:

Denver generated 105 offensive possessions [with just 3 O-Rebs].
Toronto generated 117 offensive possessions [with 19 O-Rebs].

Denver shot 61.5 [FG%].
Toronto shot 46.2 [FG%].

Denver generated 68 points in the paint.
Toronto generated 34 points in the paint.

Denver scored points at a rate of 1.238 per possession.
Toronto scored points at a rate of 0.957 per possession.

When a team like Toronto [which scores alot of points per game and yields alot of points per game, in return] plays a team like Denver [which scores alot of points per game and yields alot of points per game, in return ... but, also has physically gifted players [*] at several positions] then Toronto is going to end up on the short end of the scoreboard a majority of the time.

When Toronto has faced a Quality Opponent [.500+] this season which has not:

i. Been in the 2nd half of a back-2-back; or,
ii. Made the mistake of playing their 2 hulking centers together vs the combo of Bosh and Bargnani;

the Dinos have performed in the following way:

In general, teams that surrender more than 1.0 points per possession, vs a specific set of opponents, while scoring fewer than 1.0 points per possession themselves, have too many players who are “physically” inferior to their individual counterparts when matched-up with those teams.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 11 – at Denver [Tue Nov 17]

At Denver last season [Dec 03 2008] is where things turned ugly for the Raptors, when Sam Mitchell was fired following a lopsided loss. This season’s Nuggets should prove to be too much for the Dinos, as well, with several individual match-up advantages. Although not as deep as last season’s team, Denver should still be one of the better squads in the WC this year, if their key players can remain healthy.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 4-7

Denver jumped over several teams in the Western Conference last season, adding Chauncey Billups to their line-up.

Their challenge this summer was to resign Chris Anderson and then keep the bulk of their team together … thereby, allowing this existing group of players to grow, as a unit … which they have now done for the most part.

i.e. Nuggets re-sign Johan Petro

When you take an Early look at NBA rosters: Western Conference, and:

* Remove the question mark beside Johan Petro’s name, then,
* Remove Linas Kleiza’s name altogether

what you should see is a depth chart which looks like this:

PG: Billups/#2, Carter/#7, Lawson/#11 
OG: Smith/#4, Afflalo/#8, Carter
SF: Anthony/#1, Player #10?
PF: Martin/#5, Balkman/#9, Allen/#13
C: Nene/#3, Anderson/#6, Petro/#12

and still leaves room for one more player to be signed, before the season starts, as a competent back-up for their “superstar” [i.e. Melo], at the SF position.

If Mark Warkentien, Rex Chapman & Co. are able to accomplish this last task, there is now every reason to believe that the Nuggets will remain one of the elite teams in the Western Conference this season.

Current Odds To Win the Series
Denver Nuggets +231
LOS ANGELES LAKERS -251

Although Denver has played very well to this point in the Playoffs, they do not enjoy a host of different match-up advantages vs Los Angeles, like they did vs Dallas and New Orleans.

In particular, the specific spots where the Nuggets have possessed major advantages … i.e. at the PG [although that might be difficult for CP3 lovers to believe] and PF/C positions, plus in terms Quality Depth, overall … will not be the case in this series:

Point Guard

* Billups’ game is based on strength, not quickness. Whereas Aaron Brooks was too quick for Derek Fisher … physical strength & guile just happen to be two strengths of D-Fish, as well.

* Anthony Carter is a highly capable Back-up PG. The combination of Jordan Farmar & Shannon Brown is equally formidable.

Power Forward/Center

* Nene, Kenyon Martin, Chris Anderson & Johan Petro is a versatile and highly effective set of Bigs. So, too, however, is Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom & Josh Powell.  

Quality Depth

* JR Smith, Anderson, Carter, Linas Kleiza, Petro, Jason Hart & Renaldo Balkman are a stout and highly serviceable Group of 7, coming off the bench. However, they are not a superior force, in comparison with the Lakers’ corresponding re-inforcements, i.e. Sasha Vujacic, Odom, Farmar, Luke Walton, Powell, Brown & DJ Mbenga.  

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Please Note:
At the moment, the Lakers are +220 to Win the 2008-2009 NBA Title. For those so inclined, this is a VERY GOOD proposition.