khandor’s sports blog

Neil Paine has now published an extremely interesting blog entry:

—————————————-

Most Personnel Turnover Between Seasons

Here are the (non-expansion) clubs since 1965 who gave the smallest % of their minutes to players who had been on the roster the previous season:

—————————————-

which indicates that, since 1965:

i. There have been 30 teams change at least 64.0% of their player roster from the previous season … based on Total Minutes Played;

ii. The “Average Win Total” for these teams is approximately 30 per season [i.e. .366];

and,

iii. Only 7 of these 30 teams [i.e. 23.3%] have finished with more than 41 wins [i.e. .500+] the following season.

————

As you can tell from the comment [#3] submited by yours truly:

it would be very interesting to see what the results of Neil’s inquiry might yield, in terms of subsequent W-L records, if the parameters for examination were to be altered slightly, i.e. from a minimum change of 64.0% to >50.0%. 

————

As far as the current edition of the Toronto Raptors is concerned …

These very simple stats might actually come into to play, if Bryan Colangelo [President/GM] is eventually able to trade Jose Calderon + 1 of either Reggie Evans, or Marcus Banks, this off season:

… which would, then, push next year’s team into the “>50.0% change” category.

———————————————————-
PLEASE NOTE: According to Neil’s research … of the 4 teams in the “>50.0% change” category from the 2009-2010 season - i.e. Toronto, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Detroit - only 1 finished the year with more than 41 wins [i.e. 1/4 = 25.0%]; while, the “Average Win Total” for these teams was a rather paltry 32 games [i.e. 128/328 = 39.0%].
———————————————————-

Going forward from this point …

Which player[s] should become the new face[s] of the Raptors franchise?

If the primary long term objective is to win as many NBA championships as possible then the correct answer is quite simple.

PART I

Basketball is a game with 3 distinct phases.

i. Defense - i.e. When your opponent has possession of the ball.

ii. Rebounding - i.e. When neither team has possession of the ball.

iii. Offense - i.e. When your team has possession of the ball.

In the grand history of the NBA, the best teams in the league have consistently been built with multi-dimensional players, as the key foundation pieces.

PART II

Which player[s] on the Raptors’ current roster:

is someone who displays a high degree of proficiency in at least 2 of the 3 main phases of the game, without also being abysmal in the 3rd component?

Answer this exact question properly … and, it will tell you who, if anyone, on the Raptors SHOULD become the new face[s] of the franchise.

[NOTE: 1. R - Rookie. 2. The above classifications are based on accumulated Basketball Acumen. For the benefit of those who need to rely on game stats to make an accurate assesment of these things, feel free to peruse the available information at Hoopdata which pertains to these players. ]

Unfortunately, you might not end up liking what you will find.

As presently constituted …

* There is no Low-Post scoring Big Man on the roster.

* There is no Low-Post scoring Forward or Guard on the roster.

* Without a Low-Post scoring Big Man on the roster, there will be far less room for perimeter-based shooters to find uncontested shots, in half-court offensive situations.

* To a large extent, 4th quarter scoring in the NBA is driven by the main offensive players on a team who are capable of commanding a double-team from the defense. The Raptors have no such player[s] on their roster.

* To a large extent, consistent 4th quarter scoring in the NBA is reliant upon a team’s ability to generate easy points [i.e. high efficiency scoring opportunities] from the Foul Line. The Raptors have no players on their roster with the ability to generate large numbers of Free Throw Attempts in the 4th quarter.

* In half-court offensive situations there are few-to-no players with the ability to “break down” their individual defender off the dribble - without the benefit of a pick - in order to penetrate the perimeter of the defense and create easy scoring opportunities for their teammates.

* There are too many players with negative career Assist-to-Turnover Ratios who will need to play major minutes.

* The Raptors were a poor Points Allowed team last season and have added no experienced players this off season who should be capable of scoring more points themselves than the number of points which they will be responsible for allowing to their opponent, while still being adequate performers at the offensive end of the floor.

* The Raptors were a mediocre-to-poor rebounding team last season and have added no experienced players this off season who should be capable of securing more rebounds themselves than the number of rebounds which they will be responsible for allowing to their opponent, while still being adequate performers at the offensive end of the floor.

* While the Raptors have lost their best player from last year [i.e. Chris Bosh/C-PF], many of their opponents in the Eastern Conference have not and, in fact, have added other quality players to their roster this off season:

MIAMI HEAT, 5th place
Noteworthy:
Retain - Wade/D
Add - James/L, Bosh/C, Miller/M, Ilgauskas/Z and Howard/J
Lose - O’Neal/J, Richardson/Q, Wright/D and Beasley/M

ORLANDO MAGIC, 2nd place
Noteworthy:
Add - Duhon/C and Richardson/Q
Lose - Williams/J and Barnes/M

ATLANTA HAWKS, 3rd place
Noteworthy:
Retain - Johnson/J
Add - Larry Drew and Powell/J [?]
Lose - Mike Woodson

BOSTON CELTICS, 4th place
Noteworthy:
Retain - Pierce/P, Allen/R and Robinson/N
Add - O’Neal/J
Lose - Thom Thibodeau, Wallace/R and Allen/T

MILWAUKEE BUCKS, 6th place
Noteworthy:
Retain: Salmons/J
Add - Maggette/C, Douglas-Roberts/C, Gooden/D and Brockman/J
Lose - Ridnour/L, Bell/C, Gadzuric/D and Jackson/D

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS, 7th place
Noteworthy:
Retain: Thomas/T
Add - Dampier/E, Najera/E and Carroll/M
Lose - Felton/R and Chandler/T

CHICAGO BULLS, 8th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Thom Thibodeau, Boozer/C, Korver/K and Watson/CJ
Lose - Vinny Del Negro, Hinrich/K and Miller/B

INDIANA PACERS, 9th place
Noteworthy:
Add - George/P and Stephenson/L
Lose - None

NEW YORK KNICKS, 10th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Stoudemire/A, Randolph/A, Turiaf/R, Fields/L and Jordan/J
Lose - Lee/D, Harrington/A and Duhon/C

DETROIT PISTONS, 11th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Monroe/G
Lose - Brown/K 

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS, 12th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Doug Collins, Nocioni/A, Hawes/S, Battie/T [?] and Turner/E
Lose - Dalembert/S

NEW JERSEY NETS, 15th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Avery Johnson, Outlaw/T, Farmar/J, Morrow/A and Favors/D
Lose - Kiki Vandeweghe, Douglas-Roberts/C, Boone/J and Jianlian/Y

———————————

PLEASE NOTE:

Although the Raptors just finished the Las Vegas Summer League with a 5-0 record, this performance was achieved without Andrea Bargnani [C] playing a single minute beside some combination of DeMar DeRozan, Sonny Weems, Ed Davis and Solomon Alabi … which is a fact the team’s basketball brain-trust WOULD DO WELL TO KEEP IN MIND, as the 2010-2011 season unfolds.

Related:

The Architecture of the Raptors

Can Toronto Overcome the Loss of Chris Bosh

When you read the following article:

———————————–

Magic match Bulls’ offer sheet to retain Redick

The decision drives the Magic deeper into the luxury tax and gives them one of the NBA’s highest payrolls at about $93 million next season. The move keeps Orlando’s roster mostly intact as the Magic hope continuity will overcome Miami’s All-Star trio and Boston’s Big Three in the Eastern Conference.

“When it came down to it, when we’re talking about what we’re trying to do here, it came down for me to pedigree, DNA, things that most people don’t think about,” Orlando general manager Otis Smith said. “It was less about the money for me, being the basketball guy, and more about keeping a guy around that we’ve had in our organization for the past four years.”

The decision was ultimately made by ownership.

Because Redick was a restricted free agent, Orlando had seven days to match the contract. Billionaire owner Rich DeVos and team president Bob Vander Weide took all seven days to make the move that nearly doubles Redick’s salary from last season.

Teams have to pay a dollar for every dollar they are over the luxury tax, which the league set at $70.3 million for next season. The tax hit is based on the roster at the end of the season, meaning it’s likely the Magic could make trades before then to lessen the financial burden.

Orlando should find relief in a new downtown arena that opens this year and creates new revenue streams. Smith also believes a roster that remains one of the deepest in the league is attractive for potential moves and doesn’t mortgage the Magic’s future.

“The fact that we have players that other teams want makes you pretty flexible,” Smith said. “Is it possible to give out contracts and move a little bit less money? Sure. My thing is you don’t want to take a step back with talent.”

At the very least, keeping Redick assures that.

The former Duke standout was the 11th overall pick in the 2006 draft. He struggled early in his NBA career but has become a significant contributor for the Magic.

So much so that Smith decided that Redick and recently signed small forward Quentin Richardson(notes) had more value than Matt Barnes(notes), who became a free agent after one season with Orlando. Smith said he never offered Barnes a deal and all but ruled out the small forward returning next season.

“It really came down to out of those three, which of the two do we bring in?” Smith said. “We like what Matt brought to the table, but sometimes you have to make decisions that’s best for your club long-term.”

———————————–

and, are then made aware of the following information:

EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS

2003-2004, 2004-2005, 2005-2006, 2006-2007, 2007-2008, 2008-2009 and 2009-2010

TRANSACTIONS

Orlando vs Toronto

Isolating the performances of the Raptors and the Magic:

———————————–

———————————–

what you should be able to see is that both of these respective franchises have, in FACT, had a legitimate opportunity to build a first-class operation … starting from a lower tier position in the league 7 seasons ago; and, which has included the hiring of a new GM, along the way … focused on being able to compete for a NBA championship in the not-to-distant future.

To this point, however, only one has made significant head-way … and, a key question going forward for the other, then, becomes:

How many of the players expected to be on their roster next season actually fit into the “Just Winners” category, based upon their experience in the game, thus far?

Unfortunately for the Raptors, the correct answer, according to these eyes, is … quite possibly … as few as 3. 

According to Doug Smith, the Toronto/Charlotte component of the 3-team trade initially reported to involve the Raptors, Bobats and Suns has officially been terminated by Michael Jordan:

——————————————

Charlotte end of Raptors deal dead

The part of a complex Raptors deal that would have sent Jose Calderon and Reggie Evans to Charlotte is dead, killed by Bobcats owner Michael Jordan according to league sources.

The teams had signed off on the transaction that would have shipped Boris Diaw and Tyson Chandler to Toronto early Monday afternoon – with Chandler being told he was to become a Raptor – before it died later in the day

—————————————— 

The key question then becomes:

Why was it not sufficient for Toronto and Charlotte to simply complete a straight forward 1-for-1 trade involving Boris Diaw [SF/PF] in exchange for Jose Calderon [PG] … which, in a sense, fulfills a positional need for each team, and appears to be doable, from a salary cap perspective … if the other part of the original 3-team transaction is still scheduled to proceed as is [i.e. Turkoglu to Phoenix, in exchange for Barbosa and Jones to Toronto]?

———–

Could it possibly be the case that the original trade proposal agreed to by Charlotte and Toronto did, in fact, look like this:

To Toronto: Boris Diaw + Tyson Chandler

To Charlotte: Jose Calderon + TPE from Miami

[i.e. requiring the Raptors to send their TPE obtained from Miami to Charlotte in exchange for Tyson Chandler, in a straight forward 2-for-2 transaction]

… and that as Monday’s talks progressed, it was actually Bryan Colangelo who attempted to substitute in some combination of Reggie Evans, Dwayne Jones and/or Marcus Banks, in favour of the TPE part of the equation?

… which is ultimately what caused Michael Jordan to raise objections, since it would, in turn, prevent Charlotte from completing Part IV of their preferred player personnel plans for this summer:

i. Re-signing Tyrus Thomas, as a RFA;
ii. Not re-singing Raymond Felton;
iii. Acquiring a new PG to replace Felton [i.e. by trading Diaw for Calderon]; and,
iv. Acquiring a legitimate interior front-court scorer [i.e. by trading their acquired TPE, from Toronto, to Minnesota for Al Jefferson];

in order to alleviate some of their offensive woes from last season, and speculated about for some time by keen observers of the Bobcats.

————–

Hmmm …

Going forward in Charlotte, it could well be the case that Michael Jordan, v.7 [i.e. as "the" owner of the Bobcats] may not be so easy to push around, as was Michael Jordan, v.5 [i.e. as the "quasi-GM" of the sad-sack Washington Wizards] and Michael Jordan, v.6 [i.e. as a "minority share" owner with the franchise once controlled by Robert Johnson].

—————

Update:

According to Adrian Wojnarowski [10 minutes ago], Charlotte has now agreed to trade Tyson Chandler [C] and Alex Ajinca [C] to Dallas, in exchange for Erik Dampier [C], Matt Carroll [G] and Eduardo Najera [G/F].

According to Rick Bonnell [Inside The NBA], the hang-up in the proposed trade between Charlotte and Toronto isn’t a case of cold feet on the part of the NBA’s most notorious ’stone-cold assassin’ but, rather, a case of unrealistic financial expectations on the part of the former two-time recipient of the league’s EOTY Award:

———————————–

So, if this trade ever happens …

– The problem, I’m told, is Toronto general manager Bryan Colangelo’s financial expectations. I don’t know if that literally means cash or whether he’s demanding another team take a bad contract off his payroll.  But at the end of the day, Colangelo wants to make this work. It’s now so public, it would be hard to stuff the genie back in the bottle. Chandler and Evans already consider themselves exes with their former teams.

———————————–

Could it be that the proposed trade which Michael Jordan and Bryan Colangelo had originally agreed to was in fact not what has been reported to-date:

To Phoenix
- Hedo Turkoglu [from Toronto]

To Toronto
- Boris Diaw [from Charlotte] and Tyson Chandler [from Charlotte]

To Charlotte
- Jose Calderon [from Toronto], Dwayne Jones [from Phoenix, via Toronto] and Reggie Evans [from Toronto]

but, instead, this one:

To Phoenix
- Hedo Turkoglu [from Toronto]

To Toronto
- Boris Diaw [from Charlotte] and Tyson Chandler [from Charlotte]

To Charlotte
- Jose Calderon [from Toronto], Dwayne Jones [from Phoenix, via Toronto], Reggie Evans [from Toronto] and Marcus Banks [from Toronto]

which involves an additional player with a perceived to be ‘bad contract’ for the Raptors? … and, the distinct possibility that the Bobcats principal owner has, thus far, refused to take this on, given the viable alternative[s] at his disposal [i.e. one of which is outlined above].

While there should be no doubt that Adrian Wojnarowski is a credible writer/reporter/journalist for Yahoo! Sports, i.e. Jordan holding up Raptors trade … given his body of work to-date … so, too, is it the case that Rick Bonnell fits into a similar category for the Charlotte Observer … given a similar examination … and that sometimes two highly respected people can, in fact, simply see the exact same events in two very different ways with neither party really being described accurately as an out-right liar.

Indeed, it will be very interesting to see how this whole situation is eventually resolved and which of these two respective parties - i.e. Bryan Colangelo or Michael Jordan - is more inclined to accede to the demands of the other.

—————————-

PS. Contrary to what many so-called NBA ‘experts/observers’ realize, success/failure in the cutthroat world of pro sports is determined to a large extent by the ability of one participant to productively assert their/his ‘collective will’ over that of an opponent, in a head-to-head matchup.

——————

Update:

From a Raptors perspective, it can be highly informative to also read a solid blog - and the related comments - associated with another team which Toronto is thought to be in the process of doing business with, or, quite possibly, not.

If the Raptors are, in fact, presented with the opportunity to end this week with the following player roster:

PG: Jack, Belinelli and Banks
OG: Weems and Barbosa
SF: DeRozan and Kleiza
PF: Diaw, Johnson, Davis, Evans and Dorsey
C: Chandler, Alabi and Jones;

while being able to preserve the full ‘TPE’ which they just received from Miami …

as suggested in this blog entry 

… then, they should jump at it immediately, as:

i. A legitimate way out of their current mess with a 1-dimensional player like Andrea Bargnani [C] at the core of their team:

and,

ii. Yet another feasible opportunity to gradually build a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference which could eventually be able to win a league championship in the not-too-distant future.

Bryan Colangelo is a resourceful and hard-working GM. He just needs to be pointed in the right drection by the people working around him.

————

PS. That’s the sort of roster which just might allow the Raptors to obtain a player like Harrison Barnes [i.e. Exhibit 1 & 2] through the 2011 NBA Draft.

Update:

PPS. Just to clarify the specific trade proposal outlined here, for the benefit of those who still might be confused by it … and, to distinguish it from what’s been proposed by other ’sources’ in the on-line hoops community … this is what it would actually look like, according to the ESPN NBA Trade Machine. And, you know what? Michael Jordan might then actually decide to go through with it, rather than getting cold feet at the last minute.

It really is amazing just how serious the ramifications can be when an organization falls in ‘puppy love‘ with an ‘ineffectual’ player and then ‘ties its can to him’, come h*ll or high water.

Far too many times, this type of nonsensical decision results in years of under-achieving flatline performance for an outfit that could otherwise have gradually risen to eventually become one of the best in the league, if it would have been aware of this player’s actual deficiencies, in the first place, and removed him from their roster at the earliest possible point in time.

When this corner has to read the following example of a grossly incorrect statement/observation … from a Basketball Acumen perspective … from a significant segment of the Raptors still rabid fanbase:

————————

A Road Map For The Raptors 2010 Draft

If George is off the board, a distinct possibility, if I’m BC, I draft Cole Aldrich (assuming he’s still on the board at 13 as well of course.)  No, he’s not the biggest upside guy in the world, but I truly believe he can become a shot-blocking, solid rebounding big man at the next level akin to Joel Przybilla.  This would allow Toronto to then move Andrea to the 4, a position he’s more suited to play and one I feel that will minimize his weaknesses.

————————

it is extremely disappointing.

The fact is …

After watching him play in the NBA for the last 4 seasons, Andrea Bargnani’s best position is, undoubtably, Center [not Power Forward].

How come, you ask?

Primarily, because this is the ONLY position on the floor where he has a hope in h*ll of not committing 6 fouls in 20 minutes of game action and/or costing his team an unholy number of points allowed on the defensive end of the floor by his inability:

i. To DEFEND adequately [A] in Transition, or against any type of [B] “Switch” situation, or against any type of [C] Pick and Roll/Pop action, or [D] in any scenario where he is required to give “off-the-ball help to a teammate” after dribble penetration has occurred;

and;

ii. To REBOUND adequately versus any type of under-sized mismatched opponent … with a superior level of quickness … at the PF position.

i.e. NBA Secret Scout nails description of Bargnani [Oct 22 2009]

As Andrea Bargnani’s PT has gradually increased over the last 3 seasons, the Raptors’ W-L record has [coincidently? or correlatively?], either, gone in the opposite direction or, at-best, flatlined:

2006-2007, 47-35, made the playoffs, 1st Rd loss to the Nets
2007-2008, 41-41, made the playoffs, 1st Rd loss to the Magic [-]
2008-2009, 33-49, failed to make the playoffs [-]
2009-2010, 40-42, failed to make the playoffs [0]

The chief reason Toronto has had to play Bargnani for increasing numbers of minutes at the Center position these last 3 seasons is NOT because the team has “wanted” to use him in this way, or because he is particularly effective at this spot but, rather, because he is actually the LEAST DESTRUCTIVE to his own team’s chances for success when he’s working at this specific position … primarily against a power-based opponent.

Secondly, if the Raptors make the decision to select Cole Aldrich [C] with the No. 13 [overall] Pick in this evening’s NBA Draft, it will do absolutely nothing to eleviate their current problem with Bargnani …

* i.e. NBA: Potential Draft Busts

* If Chris Bosh happens not to re-sign with their team, as an UFA after July 1;

AND,

* If Toronto then makes the decision to trade Hedo Turkoglu [PF] and Jose Calderon [PG], in return for other players who are of equal or less ability.

Given the following developments in the Eastern Conference this summer:

1 Cleveland, re-signs LeBron James + adds Byron Scott?
2 Orlando, ?
3 Atlanta, re-signs Joe Johnson + promotes Larry Drew
4 Boston, retains Ray Allen + Doc Rivers
5 Miami, re-signs D-Wade + adds at least 1 [and, possibly, 2] new UFA
6 Milwaukee, returns Andrew Bogut from injury + adds Corey Maggette & CDR
7 Charlotte, ?
8 Chicago, adds at least 1 [or, possibly, 2] new UFA + Thom Thibodeau
——————————————-
9 Toronto, adds the No. 13 [overall] Pick/2010 NBA Draft
——————————————-
10 Indiana, adds the No. 10 [overall] Pick/2010 NBA Draft
11 New York, adds at least 1 [and, possibly, 2] new UFA
12 Detroit, adds the No. 7 [overall] Pick/2010 NBA Draft
13 Philadelphia, adds the No. 2 [overall] Pick/2010 NBA Draft + Doug Collins
14 Washington, adds the No. 1 [overall] Pick/2010 NBA Draft
15 New Jersey, adds the No. 3 [overall] Pick/2010 NBA Draft + Avery Johnson

and a possible 2010-2011 roster for Toronto which looks like this:

HOLDOVERS

PG: Jarret Jack/#1 and Marcus Banks/#2
OG: DeMar DeRozan/#3, Sonny Weems/#4 and Marco Belinelli/#5
SF: ?
PF: Andrea Bargnani/#6, Reggie Evans/#7 and Joey Dorsey/#8
C: Amir Johnson/#9

NEWCOMERS

* Cole Aldrich/#10
* Player 1/#11 [in return for Chris Bosh, e.g. David Lee]
* Player 2/#12 [in return for Chris Bosh, e.g. Wilson Chandler]
* Player 3/#13 [in return for Hedo Turkoglu, e.g. Andres Nocioni]
* Player 4/#14 [in return for Jose Calderon, e.g. Mo Williams]
* Player 5/#15 [2nd Pick, 2010 NBA Draft, e.g. Devin Ebanks]

in all likelihood, it would mean the Raptors will finish with less than 38 wins, again, and fail to make the playoffs for a 3rd consecutive season.

Instead of continuing to believe that Andrea Bargnani was in some way the RIGHT PLAYER for their franchise to select with the No. 1 [overall] Pick in the 2006 NBA Draft, and then still being determined to build around him going forward 5 years later … even though it will have cost them the services of Chris Bosh, in the end … what the Raptors need to do is finally bite the bullet on the entire Il Mago experiment and completely remove him from their roster.

Only then will this franchise begin to turn itself around … by recalibrating its over-riding Basketball Philosophy with a new focus on a more balanced approach to Team Offense, Team Defense and - most importantly! - Team Rebounding.

Now is the time to … quite literally … throw the baby out with the bath water!

———————————–

PS. The player who Toronto SHOULD be selecting this evening with the No. 13 [overall] Selection in the 2010 NBA Draft is one of: Al-Farouq Aminu [SF], Paul George [SF], Gordon Hayward [SF], Luke Babbitt [SF] or Hassan Whiteside [C].

Raptors fans should be paying close attention to the playoff games that are taking place right now, when it comes to understanding the proper value of “individual defense”, at the Point Guard position, in the NBA.

If they are …

What they should be able to see is that there are 8 teams playing in the post-season with a main-frame PG that is every bit as “poor” defensively as the Raptors’ Jose Calderon:

Cleveland Cavaliers [3-1], Mo Williams
Orlando Magic [3-0], Jameer Nelson
Atlanta Hawks [2-1], Mike Bibby
Milwaukee Bucks [1-2], Brandon Jennings
Chicago Bulls [1-3], Derrick Rose
Los Angeles Lakers [2-2], Derek Fisher
Phoenix Suns [2-2], Steve Nash
San Antonio Spurs [3-1], Tony Parker

and 8 teams with PG’s who are “superior” defensively:

Boston Celtics [3-1], Rajon Rondo
Miami Heat [1-3], Mario Chalmers/Carlos Arroyo
Charlotte Bobcats [0-3], Raymond Felton/DJ Augustin
Dallas Mavericks [1-3], Jason Kidd
Denver Nuggets [1-3], Chauncey Billups
Utah Jazz [3-1], Deron Williams
Portland Trail Blazers [2-2], Andre Miller
Oklahoma City Thunder [2-2], Russell Westbrook

When the same type of evaluation is performed for the Center position, however … related to the defensive ability of Andrea Bargnani … what you find is a very different set of results:

JUST AS POOR AS BARGNANI DEFENSIVELY

Cleveland Cavaliers [3-1], Shaquille O’Neal
Phoenix Suns [2-2], Amare Stoudemire
Utah Jazz [3-1], Kyrylo Fesenko [Mehmet Okur/inj.]

SUPERIOR TO BARGNANI DEFENSIVELY

Orlando Magic, Dwight Howard
Atlanta Hawks, Al Horford
Boston Celtics, Kendrick Perkins
Miami Heat, Jermaine O’Neal
Milwaukee Bucks, Kurt Thomas [Andre Bogut/inj.]
Charlotte Bobcats, Theo Ratliff/Tyson Chandler
Chicago Bulls, Joakim Noah
Los Angeles Lakers, Andrew Bynum/Pau Gasol
Dallas Mavericks, Brendan Haywood/Erick Dampier
Denver Nuggets, Nene
Portland Trail Blazers, Marcus Camby
San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan
Oklahoma City Thunder, Nenad Krstic

——————————————–

The fact is …

1. Most starting Point Guards in the NBA today are so good, offensively, at playing off the dribble, and penetrating with the benefit of a Big-on-Little Pick … i.e. both, athletically and in terms of their specific skill-set … that the only way for a high end team to contain them, at all, is through the use of various schematic adjustments which involve other defensive players.

2. The teams that struggle defensively in the NBA are the ones:

i. Without a defensively aware and committed player at the Center position, especially, in [A] “Hedge” [i.e. involving Big-on-Little Picks], [B] “Switch” situations, and [C] “Help” situations;

and/or,

ii. Without enough players at the Off Guard, Small Forward and Power Forward positions who are defensively aware and committed, as well;

and/or,

iii. Without a coaching staff that is able to extract a high end level of performance from the players on their team at the Off Guard, Small Forward, Power Forward and Center positions, using an array of standard defensive schemes.

Those calling for Bryan Colangelo to be dismissed, as the GM for the Raptors, are delusional.

What the Raptors - and Bryan Colangelo - NEED to do, however, at this point in time, is implement a fundamental PARADIGM SHIFT … in the way that their basketball operation conducts its business, by prioritizing the objective of TRYING TO WIN MULTIPLE NBA CHAMPIONSHIPS through the gradual construction of a top notch player roster that is filled with solid “NBA level talent” [i.e. in terms of specific skill sets and athleticism] and a proven coaching staff.

As wrong as each of Bryan Colangelo’s major personnel moves have been, thus fas, in his tenure as the Raptors’ GM, the fact is …

1. He finally did the RIGHT THING … by failing to making any trades this season at the Trade Deadline;

and,

2. He is finally now saying the RIGHT THING … as far as [i] properly managing the expectations for the team heading into next season AND [ii] assessing accurately just how far away this current collection of players is from actually being able to compete successfully for a Top 4 playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, in the not-too-distant future …

provided that he is NOW willing to:

A. Keep Chris Bosh/C;

B. Exceed the Luxury Tax Threshold;

and,

C. Trade Andrea Bargnani/C, in exchange for a solid, veteran wing player with good size, NBA athleticism, and a commitment to sound defensive play and rebounding.

To wit:

Andrea Bargnani Trade Proposal

What this specific trade would accomplish …

OPTION 1

From a Raptors’ perspective:

Keeping Bosh would be Step 1.

Trading Bargnani for Battier + Taylor would be Step 2.

- it would rid the team of a defensive albatross
- it would add a 3rd string PG to play behind Calderon and Banks
- it would add a solid wing defender/rebounder with good size to go with the younger tandem of DeRozan and Weems

Step 3 would then involve trading Hedo Turkoglu.

Step 4 would then involve trading Jarrett Jack.

Step 5 would then involve keeping Amir Johnson.

Step 6 would then involve selecting another future rotation player with the 2010 1st Round Draft Pick.

The Raptors would then be moving forward with the following group of players:

1 Chris Bosh, C
2 Amir Johnson, PF
3 Shane Battier, SF
4 DeMar DeRozan, OG
5 Jose Calderon, PG

6 New Player #1 [obtained via trade for Turkoglu]
7 New Player #2 [obtained via trade for Jack]
8 Sonny Weems, OG-SF
9 Marco Belinelli, OG-PG
10 Jermaine Taylor, PG
11 Marcus Banks, PG
12 2010 1st Round Pick
13 New Player #3 [FA signed to replace Antoine Wright]
14 Reggie Evans, PF [or New Player #4, obtained via trade for Reggie Evans]
15 Rasho Nesterovic, C [re-signed for the veteran's minimum]

Patrick O’Bryant would not be re-signed.
Joey Dorsey would not be re-signed [or, he would replace Reggie Evans].

==============================

From the Rockets’ perspective:

1. Bargnani could play Center for them, if Yao Ming isn’t ready to go at the start of next season.

2. Bargnani could be used as Yao Ming’s offensively oriented back-up off the bench, if the big fella is ready to start the season.

3. Bargnani could be used at the PF position, beside Yao Ming, if the big fella is ready to start the seaon, and the Rockets want to go with a twin towers line-up.

——————————————–
NOTE: In every situation, Morey would need to play Bargnani with solid positional defenders in order to compensate for Il Mago’s deficiency in this area. Morey is smart enough to pull that off.
——————————————–

OPTION 2

The same as Option 1, above, except … the Raptors would simply elect to keep Hedo Turkoglu.

——————————————–

What would the 2010-2011 roster then look like for the Raptors?

The more time an astute NBA observer actually spends looking at the depth chart involved with OPTION 2, the more this observer should then begin to see a variety of different possibilities which would be quite a positive development for the Raptors … moving forward … as a team that finished in the No. 9 position this season [especially if Bryan Colangelo can also get a future protected 1st Round Draft Pick included in the trade with Houston].

——————————————–

Despite what some might think, yours truly is firmly in the Raptors’ corner and of the belief that the pro hoops franchise in Toronto has ALWAYS been just a few RIGHT moves away from being able to develop into one of the premier organizations in the entire NBA.