khandor’s sports blog

Matching-up the Raptors’ current roster with the end-of-season version for the 2008-2009 campaign, on a position-by-position basis, looks like this:

While it’s relatively easy to see how other NBA observers can feel that the Raptors have increased their Perceived Talent Level [PTL] by a substantial amount this off season, when a comparative eye is then cast further backwards, to the previous year [2007-2008]:

and, ultimately, to the watershed 2006-2007 season: 

the picture produced is somewhat different.

Reviewing ALL 3 of these comparisons, at-once, it would be more accurate to say that the current roster has:

* MORE talent than the 2008-2009 version [33 wins];

* SLIGHTLY MORE talent than the 2007-2008 version [41 wins]; and,

* SLIGHTLY LESS talent than the 2006-2007 version [47 wins].

An accurate understanding of what exactly is going on these days in Raptorville is not arrived at easily for many of the team’s rabid fans who are active participants in the on-line hoops community. Amidst the general euphoria that has taken hold in the aftermath of last week’s seemingly stunning 4-team trade extravaganza with Dallas, Orlando and Memphis … which netted the Raptors:

* Hedo Turkoglu [F, Orlando, UFA]
* Antoine Wright [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season]
* Devean George [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season], and
* Preserved their right to use the Mid Level Exception [MLE], the Low Level Exception [LLE], and exercise their [Larry] Bird Rights towards resigning their own Unrestricted Free Agents [UFA]

at the expense of:

* Shawn Marion [Sign & Trade with Orlando, UFA]
* Kris Humphries [trade with Dallas; injured much of last season]
* Nathan Jawai [trade with Dallas; disabled much of last season]
* 2nd Round Draft Pick/2016 [trade with Dallas]
* Cash Considerations [trade with Dallas] 

The stark reality of this team’s current situation is perhaps best reflected in the bright lights of the following 5 observations:

PART ONE
The post-trade outlook for the Raptors which was first put together by “Dave” [nbaroundtable, Thu July 9], extolling the possible virtues:

Where do the Raptors go from here?

PART TWO
The specific comment which “Dave” then left in a different thread on his blog, later that same afternoon, indicating his actual thoughts on their chances to succeed with their current roster configuration:

———-

Four team trade: Shawn Marion to Dallas
2011/12

This is the Raptors fail safe option. When they fail, and they will fail, they need to have this option open to them and then use this option.

This means no extra contracts that last beyond two years. I will dislike pretty much any contract that goes beyond two seasons. As long as the contract is than two seasons, spending that money doesn’t bother me in the slightest.

Dead End

The Raptors are going nowhere, and they need a miracle to happen for this plan to have any chance of working out. The Raptors are going to run into [sic] dead end.

Now, it’s time just to sit back and let things play out. Things will not improve until Colangelo figures out Bargnani isn’t a cornerstone of this franchise … until that happens, there’s nothing else that can be done to put the Raptors on the right road.

The Raptors can’t get out of the corner that they’ve boxed themselves into, until Bargnani is moved on. Any aspirations for a title are on hold until this happens.

———-  

PART THREE
The specific comment which was made on this blog [July 11, 11:35 AM], by yours truly, that addressed the supposed “Qualitative Improvement” of the Raptors current roster pieces in comparison with last season’s end-of-year squad, pertaining to the question of:

———-

Which team made out best from 4-team trade?
IMO, the Raptors have made upgrades in certain areas thus far but it would be a mistake in judgment to assess this improvement as being “a lot better“, just yet:

No BEFORE ADV AFTER

1 Calderon = Calderon
2 Parker <– Wright … AP is significantly better
3 Marion = Turkoglu … Turkoglu is NOT significantly better
4 Bosh = Bosh
5 Bargnani = Bargnani
—————————-
6 Ukic = Ukic
7 Kapono –> DeRozan * … cyclical due to draft
8 Graham = George … Devean is NOT significantly better
9 Humphries = Evans … Reggie is NOT significantly better
10 O’Bryant –> Nesterovic … Rasho is much better!
—————————-
11 Douby = Delfino … is different but NOT much better
12 Mensah-Bonsu = Mensah-Bonsu
—————————-
13 Banks = Banks
14 Jawai ? Barnes … jury still out on Nathan
15 Voskuhl = O’Bryant

Those who are looking at these changes in an excessively positive light are the ones looking through rose-coloured spectacles.

———-

PART FOUR
The Shifting Player Personnel Chart that was constructed by yours truly yesterday:

which shows the drastic player changes that have happened with the Raptors for each of the past two seasons. 

PART FIVE
The glaring RED ALERT that was issued on Sunday by David Berri [i.e. noted economist, NBA "sage & soothsayer", author of The Wages of Wins Journal]:

Dashing Hope in Toronto
Not a Pretty Picture in Toronto

When we put the whole picture together, it appears the Raptors will employ the following starting line-up in 2009-10: Calderon (PG), Wright and/or DeRozan (SG), Turkoglu (SF), Bosh (PF), Bargnani [C].  Last season the NBA veterans in this line-up combined to produce fewer than 30 wins. So unless these players improve dramatically, or the team finds very productive players off the bench, it’s hard to see how this team improves dramatically.  And that’s true even if Delfino returns to Toronto (although if Evans returns to what we saw in the past there might be some hope this team can get past 40 wins).

All of this means that

1. Turkoglu will be seeing much more money in 2009-10, but probably far fewer wins.
2. Bargnani will also see much more money, but it seems unlikely he is ever going to produce many wins.
3. Bosh will see even more money after this next season, but if the Raptors don’t approach 45 or 50 wins (which seems likely) then it seems unlikely that the money Bosh is paid in the future is going to be paid by the Raptors.
4. So it looks likely the Raptors record performance in 2007-08 will stand for awhile.  In other words, if Bosh departs this team in 2010, then rebuilding will probably continue beyond 2009-10.
5. And this means — assuming the Raptors don’t make any major change to this team — the fans of the Raptors will keep paying money to see a team that’s not contending for a title.

———-

Experience says that when disparate individuals like:

1. “Dave” [nbaroundtable] … who combines statistics with Basketball Acumen;

2. khandor [that's me ] … who relies primarily on Basketball Acumen;

and,

3. David Berri … who relies heavily on a statistical approach to the analysis of on-court production for players in the NBA;

actually arrive at a similar conclusion … which is essentially opposed to the GENERAL CONSENSUS that exists in Raptorville today … it portends of difficult times ahead for this team in the coming season.

In the best interests of the franchise, let’s hope that all three of these “stray birds” are eventually proven to be wrong in their assessment of the team. 

At what point are the Toronto Raptors going to wake up, smell the coffee and return CHRIS BOSH, their best player [by far], to his “natural” position for their team?

What is Chris Bosh’s “natural” position? 

Chris Bosh is a stalwart Center … and, one of the very best in the NBA, today.

Two seasons ago, the Raptors won 47 games [.573], finished 3rd in the Eastern Conference, and captured their only Atlantic Division crown.

For that team, Chris Bosh [in his 4th season] played the Center position, almost exclusively … in terms of Offense, Defense and Rebounding responsibilities … alongside an under-sized but physically strong, and smart, and highly skilful veteran player like Jorge Garbajosa [PF], as his principal side-kick, in conjunction with a solid Point Guard tandem of TJ Ford [who SHOULD have properly been the Back-up] and Jose Calderon [who SHOULD have properly been the Starter].

Unfortunately for the Raptors, and their loyal fanbase, beginning with the 2007-2008 season, the team then made the decision to shift Chris Bosh from the Center position to the Power Forward spot … primarily, to better accommodate Andrea Bargnani, 7-0, 250 [2006, No. 1, overall, Draft Pick].

What’s followed, since then, have been two seasons of precipitous descent:

2007-2008
41-41/.500, 6th place in the Eastern Conference

2008-2009
33-49/.402, Missed the Playoffs in the Eastern Conference

which have seen the Raptors give increased playing time to Andrea Bargnani, first, at the Power Forward position [i.e. 2007-2008] and then, principally, at the Center position [i.e. 2008-2009], while decreasing Chris Bosh’s actual playing time at that specific spot, in the process.

What do the Raptors need most to re-ignite the engine at the heart of their seemingly sinking ship?

Improve the Leadership on their team?
Improve their Defense & Rebounding?
Increase their Toughness Quotient?
Improve their Quality Depth?

Use Chris Bosh as THE Center for their team …

and, then, build the rest of their squad, accordingly, upon:

I. THAT foundation;

in conjunction with,

II. A solid PG tandem [i.e. Calderon + a solid, pass-first, defensive oriented, veteran Back-up];

and,

III. An under-sized, physically strong, and smart, and highly skilful veteran Power Forward [i.e. similar to Jorge Garbajosa];

at which point they will then be ready to add two dynamic Wing Players, who can:

IV. ONE - Knock down open shots & score the ball by creating his own individual offense off the dribble;

and,

V. TWO - Check the opponent’s best Wing Player, on a game-to-game basis.

———-

How can the Raptors use their available resources to accomplish this feat?

Step 1. Trade out of the #9 spot in the upcoming NBA Draft.

Acquiring a Lower 1st Round Draft Pick, plus either a 2nd Round Selection, or an additional highly serviceable player can add at least TWO solid pieces to the current roster … which is sorely lacking Quality Depth.  

Step 2. Trade Andrea Bargnani.

When a team already has a player like Chris Bosh [C] and it drafts a player like Andrea Bargnani [C], with the No. 1 [overall] Selection … it SHOULD NOT be with the intent of holding onto this 2nd center for an extended period of time BUT with the intent of TRADING that player in exchange for other assets which are a better fit to go with the Franchise Player already in the fold. The reason the Raptors have plummeted in the EC standings is NOT because of Chris Bosh; it’s because the team has refused to part with Andrea Bargnani, at least, up to this point.

Step 3. Trade Jason Kapono.

When a team signs a high-priced Unrestricted Free Agent and that player then fails to deliver the goods … the team needs to cut its losses, ASAP, not hold onto this player for an extended period of time. Albatrosses will not help you to win a championship in this league.

Step 4. Sign & Trade Shawn Marion.

When a middle-of-the-pack team acquires a high-priced veteran player in a trade-deadline deal and this player wants to sign a big-money contract extension, but is no longer perceived to be a cost-effective player, at this stage of his career, at his Expected Salary Level, then he needs to be flipped in exchange for younger more cost-effective assets and NOT re-signed. 

Executing a series of co-ordinated personnel moves like this can add a number of high calibre players to the Raptors’ roster and extricate the team from the “treadmill” situation it finds itself in today.

Yes, it’s far from being Rocket Science but … in order to succeed in this League, in a MAJOR Way … the people responsible for the operation of a club actually DO NEED TO KNOW WHAT THEY’RE DOING, when it comes to assembling a championship calibre squad with the resources at-hand.

If they fail to assess the specific Strengths & Weaknesses of their own players accurately, they will simply be spinning their wheels, as an organization, in terms of ever being able TO WIN the NBA Championship.  

Araujo pick set off chain reaction
I‘ve always considered the drafting of Rafael Araujo the Raptors’ original sin. It set off a chain reaction the team has never really recovered from.

Araujo, as every Raptors fan knows, was picked No.8 overall by Rob Babcock, who promised on draft night that the big Brazilian was “Not a stiff.”

Well, he was a stiff. One with small hands and short arms and - quite literally - no upside.

Missing at No.8 isn’t ordinarily the end of the world. It happens. And it says A LOT about the NBA that having the chance to pick the eighth - or in this year’s draft - the ninth best player in the world in a given year carries with it no certainty of success.

Tough league.

But the 2004 draft had its share of good players. One of them - Andre Iguodala - was taken ninth by the Philadelphia 76ers, as every Raptors fan knows.

Which is the problem: It’s not so much that Araujo was a bust, it’s that Iguodala represents exactly and - short of Kobe/LeBron/Wade - I mean exactly what the franchise needs.

He slashes. He defends other wings. He’s a one-man fastbreak. He’s a passable spot-up shooter. He’s very good playmaker and passer. He’s relatively affordable, at $12-million a year, which is pretty good value for a Tier 1A wing player in the NBA.

But you know all this.

Still, I’ve been thinking about Iguodala as I’ve [been] watching Mickael Pietrus with the Orlando Magic.

———-

In contrast, what this corner sees is that the specific time-line … i.e. Chain Reaction … for the de-evolution of the Raptors looks like this:

* Fired Glen Grunwald, Apr 1, 2004
* Hired Rob Babcock, Jun 7, 2004
* Drafted Rafael Araujo [No. 8], Jun 24 2004
* Hired Sam Mitchell, Jun 29, 2004
* Traded Vince Carter, Dec 17, 2004 [for exactly what, in return?]
* Fired Babcock, Jan 26, 2006
* Hired Bryan Colangelo, Feb 28, 2006
* Drafted Andrea Bargnani [No. 1], Jun 28, 2006
* Traded Charlie Villanueva for TJ Ford, Jul 1, 2006
* Traded for Carlos Delfino, Jun 15, 2007
* Signed Jason Kapono, Jul 11, 2007
* Traded TJ Ford & Rasho Nesterovic & No. 17 Draft Pick for Jermaine O’Neal & No. 41 Draft Pick, Jun 26, 2008
* Signed Hassan Adams, Jul 8, 2008
* Signed Roko Ukic, Jul 16, 2008
* Signed Will Solomon, Jul 28, 2008
* Bought out Jorge Garbajosa, Aug 10, 2008
* Fired Mitchell, Dec 3, 2008

33-49/.402, 14th place in the Eastern Conference

———-

April 1, 2004 [and, then, Dec 17] will live-on, in infamy … as a sort of very real, cruel JOKE … in the history of this franchise, purpetrated by Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment [MLSE, i.e. Richard Peddie & Larry Tanenbaum]. 

Understanding the demise of the Toronto Raptors, since the end of the 2006-2007 season to where the team stands today, means starting with a simple review of their personnel, Then vs Now:  

Then

47-35/.573
1st place, Atlantic Division
1st Round Playoff Loss
General Manager - Bryan Colangelo
Head Coach - Sam Mitchell 
Main Players - TJ Ford/PG, Anthony Parker/OG, Morris Peterson/SF, Jorge Garbajosa/PF & Chris Bosh/C
Support Players - Jose Calderon, Darrick Martin, Juan Dixon, Joey Graham, Andrea Bargnani, Kris Humphries & Rasho Nesterovic,

Now

33-49/.402
4th place, Atlantic Division
Failed to qualify for the Playoffs
General Manager - Bryan Colangelo
Head Coach - Jay Triano 
Main Players - Jose Calderon/PG, Anthony Parker/OG, Shawn Marion/SF, Chris Bosh/PF & Andrea Bargnani/C
Support Players - Roko Ukic, Marcus Banks, Quincy Douby, Jason Kapono, Joey Graham, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, Kris Humphries, Nathan Jawai, Jake Voskuhl & Patrick O’Bryant

Italics - “New” Personnel

If you compare the two teams individual-by-individual, this is what you should be able to see:

Those who think that the current version of the Raptors is somehow lacking “Leadership” from Chris Bosh & Jose Calderon, or that CB4 is somehow NOT worthy of consideration as a legit “Franchise Player” in the NBA, or that El Matador is somehow “Too Conservative With The Ball & NOT Dynamic Enough”, as a main-frame PG, etc., to form The Core of a contending team in the Eastern Conference are displaying an overall lack of Basketball Acumen, when it comes to Understanding How Exactly the NBA Game Works.

Instead of BUILDING UP the remainder of the team’s personnel AROUND Chris Bosh [C] and Jose Calderon [PG], since the end of the 2006-2007 season, what Bryan Colangelo has done is DECREASED/LOWERED the actual Ability Level & Functionality of the other key pieces to the Raptors puzzle.

Until the Raptors re-stock their barren shelves with Additional Players to provide them with INCREASED Ability Level & Functionality, in terms of QALITY DEPTH, overall, they will remain a Treadmill Team, in the Salary Cap-driven NBA. 

———-

Q1. How many of the current Raptors would rank in the top half of all the players in the League at their respective positions?

A1. Excluding Chris Bosh [C] & Jose Calderon [PG] … very few, if any.

As of this morning Toronto is 11th in the Eastern Conference Standings with a 15-21/.417 Won-Lost Record.

Raptors fans everywhere …

including those who frequent RaptorsRepublic.com, Arsenalist’s old site, AltRaps.com, Raptorstalk.com, and From Deep, etc. …

were told by yours truly during the off-season and, then, throughout the pre-season:

* Exactly what would happen with the Raptors this season had Jermaine O’Neal not been brought to this team, in the first place … i.e. see how much better the mice have ‘run’, since he’s been absent from the line-up;

* What would happen to the team’s Rebounding Differential if O’Neal was the only addition to the core rotation and the appropriate adjustments were not made with the role of other Raptors, as well, e.g. Jamario Moon, Joey Graham, Kris Humphries, Anthony Parker, Jason Kapono and Andrea Bargnani;

* Who exactly Andrea Bargnani is, as a Perimeter Big, that can shoot the 3, defend an opponent’s Power-based Big on the block, keep his own check off the offensive boards, with a highly serviceable physical/mean/remorseless streak to his personality/individual game [ala Bill Laimbeer];

and,

* Who exactly Chris Bosh is, as Low-Mid Post Big that: [i] Can abuse his check when he faces up in the post; [ii] Can create open shots for his teammates … if the team’s offense is allowed to run THROUGH him in this Central Hub location; [iii] Is a solid interior defender … if he’s allowed to play behind his check on the block without having to work to a Half or Full Front position [only being asked to occupy his check from behind by rooting him off his desired sweet spot and then providing interior HELP & Shot-blocking elsewhere for his teammates [ala The Great Man, himself, Mr. Russell]; [iv] Can be a terrific REBOUNDER, when he FOCUSES his energy on this specific aspect of the game and uses his length and quickness to maximum advantage; AND, [v] Is a character guy upon whom a NBA franchise CAN BE BUILT, Steadfast and Mature beyond his years.

- Moving TJ Ford was excellent.
- Acquiring Jermaine O’Neal, in return, was not.
- Losing Rasho Nesterovic, as a highly professionl back-up Big, was unnecessary.
- Losing the No. 17 [overall] 2008 Draft Pick was unnecessary.
- Losing Jorge Garbajosa was unnecessary.
- Keeping Jason Kapono while allowing Carlos Delfino to leave, even temporarily, was not a sound move.
- Adding Hassan Adams was not a sound move.
- Going to training camp with only 13 players was not a sound move.
- Adding Roko Ukic was a sound move.
- Adding Will Solomon was cost effective.
- Adding Jake Voskuhl is a sound move.
- Moving Hassan Adams for a 2nd Rd Pick is a sound move.

Under either Sam Mitchell or Jay Triano, as is, the Raptors are a Middle-of-the-Pack team in the Eastern Conference. There are a number of these teams, in this conference, at the moment, including Miami, New Jersey, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Chicago, New York, Indiana and Charlotte.

Where the Raptors go from here, however, will be determined by the commitment of MLSE to do what’s necessary to build a high calibre NBA team in Toronto and the Basketball Acumen of the President/GM, Bryan Colangelo.

The pieces have been in place in Toronto for many moons now … they have just been wasted, to this point, that’s all, largely by mediocre/”average” management of the available resources.

Yours truly sincerely hopes that this changes, moving forward here.

By keeping Bosh, Calderon, and Bargnani together and adding other solid, young, athletic, under-the-radar but great character guys … e.g. Rodney Carney and Chris Douglas-Roberts, or Luc Richard Mbah A Moute, or Joey Dorsey, or Roy Hibbert, etc. [who were all available this past off-season] … gradually through the draft, when CB4 is in HIS prime years [i.e. 27/28-35, or so], there is no legitimate reason whatsoever this team SHOULD BE anything but an Upper Echelon outfit in the NBA.

Just because the Raptors blew the chance they had to get it right, back in Feb/2006 … doesn’t mean they HAVE to blow it again.

The Raptors’ team that beat the Bobcats last night … Box Score … was indicative of the roster Toronto SHOULD have been playing with from the opening tip this season … minus, of course:

* Rasho Nesterovic
* Rodney Carney
* Royal Ivey
* Jorge Garbajosa
* Carlos Delfino [depending on his interest in returning]
* the 2008 No. 17 [overall] Draft Pick [e.g. Roy Hibbert, CDR, Joey Dorsey, Luc Richard Mbah A Moute]

That line-up … right there … is a top 6 contender in the Eastern Conference, with a legit shot at winning a 1st Round Playoff series this spring and enough flexibility moving forward to become a perennial contender for a spot in the NBA’s FINAL FOUR annually for the balance of Chris Bosh’s career.

That’s the type of line-up a TOP NOTCH President/General Manager would/could/should have been able to put together heading into this season on behalf of the Toronto Raptors given the list of assets which this organization had at its disposal the day before the 2008 NBA Draft.

When this speaker talks of Opportunities Lost, on behalf of this organization, over the years … i.e. since the transfer of ownership from Mr. Steve Stavro to MLSE and the subsequent dismissal of Lenny Wilkens & then Glen Grunwald … this is the type of situation that is being referenced.

* THE problem with the current Raptors
* Of scorpions, frogs, GMs & coaches
* Staying the course in Raptorville
* More Smoke & Mirrors
* 20/20 Vision of the Toronto Raptors
* The next step for the Toronto Raptors
* Understanding Bryan Colangelo’s method of operation [good & bad]
* Toronto Raptors Player Roster 2008-2009

OH, WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN, IF THE PEOPLE RESPONSIBLE FOR RUNNING THINGS AT MLSE HAD JUST KNOWN WHAT THEY WERE DOING IN TERMS OF BUILDING A CHAMPIONSHIP CALIBRE PROFESSIONAL BASKETBALL FRANCHISE.

It’s enough to make a knowledgeable NBA observer sick to his/her stomuch.

[Part One] When the Raptors trade away three of their most marketable assets in a single transaction …

* TJ Ford [back-up PG]
* Rasho Nesterovic [back-up C]
* No. 17 [overall] Draft Pick/2008

in return for an oft-injured player with a $21 million/yr price-tag …

* Jermaine O’Neal

and a 2008 No. 41 [overall] Draft Pick, with an existing heart condition …

* Nathan Jawai

and, then …

[Part Two] Orchestrate a non-essential contract buyout for a player like Jorge Garbajosa, who was their starting PF/SF during the bulk of their wins in the 2006-2007 season, when they won the Atlantic Division and finished 47-35

and, then …

[Part Three] Make the decision not to sign a reliable, veteran PG, as one of their 15 Players Alottment, for the 2008-2009 season … because they are $1,100 under the League’s Luxury Tax Threshold at-present, with only 13 players under contract, and would like to remain in this position, as long as they can also field a ‘competitive’ team, in the NBA,  

it can create all sorts of interesting and unexpected deficiencies/vacancies in their everyday 12-man line-up …

———————————

The Raptors need a shooting guard. Now.
The average PER of the opponents shooting guards is 19.9. The Raptors’ shooting guard PER is 11.0. There are only two teams who are at that much of a deficit at any position: The Washingto Wizards, who are down 11.2 at point guard and the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are down 9.0 at centre. Combined they are 2-23 and have fired two coaches. Oh, one other team is worse off, sorry. That’s San Antonio, who are down 12.4 at small forward, thanks to injuries, and they’re a potential Finals team struggling to stay in the playoff race out west.

———————————

the Domino Effect of which can lead to a rampant mis-diagnosis of what actually ails their team, treating only the symptoms … which are readily visible … but not the ILLNESS itself.

Yes, overall PER at the #2 position is down for the Raptors, thus far, this season … but, according to this corner of the internet, THIS is NOT the PRIMARY CAUSE of the Raptors current set of problems.

Q1. What is?
A1. Part One, Part Two and Part Three … in combination with one another.

In general, David Aldridge’s review is an unbiased evaluation of the transactions made by all 30 teams in the NBA, since the end of the 2007-2008 season, when the Boston Celtics were crowned League Champions.

——————————————

Ranking the off season moves
PROJECTION: If you think the oft-injured O’Neal has a lot left, the Raptors made a great trade. Pairing O’Neal and Chris Bosh down low gives Sam Mitchell a lethal inside presence, one that will pay off with open looks for the likes of Jason Kopono and Anthony Parker and Calderon and Andrea Bargnani, and make Toronto a force in the Eastern Conference.

If you don’t think O’Neal has much left, the Raptors aren’t going to do much better next season than they have the previous two-going out early in the playoffs-even though Calderon is ready to take over the point full-time and Toronto has shooters that many other teams would love to have.

The guess here is that O’Neal isn’t the player he once was, but may not have to be playing alongside Olympian Bosh. And if Bargnani, the former first pick who took a noticeable and decided step backward in his second pro season, doesn’t get back on track, whatever O’Neal has to give won’t matter much anyway.

——————————————

Although this corner does not agree with a number of Mr. Aldridge’s specific assessments … this ↑↑↑ entry is a ruthless slap in the face for mis-guided Raptors faithful who may think their team’s acquisition of Jermaine O’Neal, in isolation, was amongst the most substantial moves made this off season across the NBA.

Unlike the Boston Celtics [28] , San Antonio Spurs [27], Cleveland Cavaliers [23], Phoenix Suns [22] and LA Lakers [21] … generally considered to be included in the top tier of teams in the NBA … the Toronto Raptors finished last season with a .500 record and have been eliminated swiftly from the playoffs each of the past two years.

Given the quality of moves made by other outfits in the Eastern Conference this summer, in relation to the Raptors, it is simply not a given that the Dinos are going to make the playoffs this season, and be able to maintain their present status as one of the up-and-coming teams in the NBA.

Since the Jermaine O’Neal trade was first announced, this corner has said repeatedly that this move alone was NOT going to solve the Raptors’ REBOUNDING problem … which occurs when they play against a high calibre opponent with as much or more ‘athleticism’ at the 5 positions on the floor, in comparison with Toronto’s line-up.

When this current collection of Raptors matches-up with a team like this current group of 76ers … what you’re going to get, more often than not, is a ‘Board Deficit’ like you saw in yesterday’s encounter:

Box Score: Philadelphia 85, Toronto 79

There are specific ways to effectively address a team’s REBOUNDING problem … when it’s the type of problem the Raptors have had for the last two years … but, one of them is NOT:

* To trade your team’s 2nd best Rebounder [who is also your best Low Post Defender, i.e. Nesterovic]
* To include a flip-flop of 1st & 2nd Round Draft Picks [which turns out to be ... THEY get Roy Hibbert; YOU get Nathan Jawai!!!]
* To include your back-up PG in the deal [Ford]
* To include a throw-away Big from the end of the bench [Baston]
* Plus, decide to let another throw-away Big from the end of the bench to walk for nothing [Brezec]
* Plus, decide to let a useful player like Carlos Delfino walk away for nothing
* Plus, decide to let a VERY useful player like Jorge Garbajosa do the same

… in exchange for adding:

* Either inexperienced and/or marginal players like Jawai, Roko Ukic, Hassan Adams, and Will Solomon
* Plus, a veteran player like Jermaine O’Neal, who is returning from a series of leg injuries.

That ^^^, right there, is like making a 7 for 4 deal, where …

Toronto Loses: Nesterovic + Ford + Hibbert + Baston + Brezec + Delfino + Garbajosa

and

Toronto Adds: O’Neal + Jawai + Adams + Solomon

[strictly speaking Ukic cannot be included amongst the additions since his rights already belonged to the Raptors]

in which 5 of the 6 players who you know already can play effectively in the NBA, in some capacity, are going the other way … while you are getting ‘the best player’, overall … but, who you can only HOPE is going to regain his effectiveness coming off his most recent injury.

THAT ^^^, right there, is a BAD TRADE.

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By trying to make a ‘blockbuster’ trade this summer … instead of simply moving TJ Ford for a back-up, serviceable, Wing player like Rodney Carney … and promoting Calderon to the starter’s position … and, THEN, holding onto Nesterovic, Delfino & Garbajosa, until further notice … what the Raptors have done now is, in fact, ROLL THE DICE big time that they do not pick up any sort of serious injury to Bosh, O’Neal or Calderon, and can survive these next two years with their current line-up intact, while not dropping down into the #9-12 spots in the EC, where they would be a DEFINITE ‘treadmill’ team … i.e not good enough to make the playoffs and not bad enough to get a high NBA DRAFT Lottery Pick anytime soon … waiting for the 2010-2011 season when they will once again have some wiggle room under the Salary Cap/Luxury Tax Threshold to add/subtract players to/from their roster.

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Which, in turn … given the Raptors’ current player roster … is part of the reason they SHOULD think long and hard, right now, about:

* Removing Anthony Parker from their starting line-up
* Shifting Jamario Moon to the #2-spot
* Inserting Joey Graham into the starting line-up
* Using AP as the primary back-up PG/OG, coming off the bench
* Removing Jermaine O’Neal from the starting line-up
* Inserting Kris Humphries into the starting line-up, as the partner for CB4
* Using O’Neal [PF] and Bargnani [C] together, as the Bigs with their 2nd Unit
* Using Jason Kapono for instant offense off the bench, as a spot player on the Wing with either the 1st or 2nd Units, at a later point in the game when the situation dictates
* Using a system of higly structured set plays which would allow limited offensive players like Graham, Moon, Humphries, and Bargnani to function at their maximum level of efficiency by only shooting ‘designated’ shots …

and, thereby, create a better balanced rotation for this Raptors’ team, which accounts for and integrates the areas of Rebounding, Defense and Team Offense.

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Then, again … this corner could always be proven wrong about this … over the course of time.