khandor’s sports blog

The NBA Finals [v.2009-2010] tip off this evening in Los Angeles.

While Rounds 1, 2 and 3 have produced some fair-to-good basketball, this version of the Finals should prove to be an entirely different kettle of fish.

These 2 teams are quite evenly matched.

The Lakers, however, signed Ron Artest last summer for one reason only.

i.e. To have him defend either LeBron James or Paul Pierce in the NBA Finals. 

If Ron Ron does his job properly, from a physical standpoint, and can play Da Truth to a virtual stand-off, then … all else being equal … the Lakers will be hoisting another championship banner to the rafters when the 2010-2011 kicks off in the fall.

It really is as simple as that.

Enjoy what should be a real hum-dinger of a series!

… it says here, is still this one:

Unfortunately …

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What’s ailing the Lakers and Celtics? Offense

You might think me full of mess, but the results don’t lie. There is no reason this team should be the 10th-best offensive team in the NBA (down from third in 2008-09), and the reason behind that downturn lies in the way this team has gone away from the triangle offense. It mostly has to do with what I started warning the Lakers and Kobe about back in Behind the Box Scores from early December: Kobe, you’re taking too much on.

It’s not about too many shots (though he takes too many shots). It’s about developing a five-man rhythm rather than looking to play fourth-quarter hero through the first three quarters. Hell, the main reason Kobe has had to play fourth-quarter hero so many times this year (and it bears repeating - nobody has played fourth-quarter hero this well since Jordan’s prime) is because of the pound-foolish ways they’ve played. Kobe dominates the ball too much. Simple as that. It’s the reason they’re not pulling away from teams in the second and third quarters.

The amount of shots he takes? That’s not the problem. He could get 30 shots a game while touching the ball for three seconds in every possession. It’s not about shots. It’s about ball movement and keeping the defense on its heels. And the Lakers haven’t kept anyone on their heels this year. All they’ve had is a Kobe-centric offense that teams know is coming, but are sometimes powerless to stop.

Some of the time.

The other times? It leaves them needlessly 10th in offense and with 21 losses already. With too many close wins and a post All-Star break swoon that has seen their play on both ends of the court rank among some of the more mediocre teams in this league.

This team had 70-win potential and has done just enough to win on most nights. But on 21 nights, that hasn’t been enough. Should the Lakers still be the favorites heading into the postseason? I think so. The team’s play, at its best, is still probably better than that of the Cavaliers or Magic at their best.

But that doesn’t mean the Lakers don’t need a major attitude adjustment.

And with the defense falling off the way it has (second in the NBA a few weeks ago, below average in the weeks since), they better get the offense together quickly. Very quickly.

And it starts with the smartest guy in the room. Kobe Bryant.

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as long as Phil Jackson continues to:

1. Believe that Derek Fisher’s veteran leadership justifies his inclusion in the Lakers’ Group-Of-5-Best-Players …

i.e. selected from amongst this specific set of 6 players:

Fisher/PG + Bryant/OG + Artest/SF + Odom/PF + Gasol/PF-C + Bynum/C 

… despite the fact that he can no longer defend [primarily] or rebound [secondarily] adequately at the Point Guard position, and has been reduced to being little more than an erratic spot-up shooter, at the Off Guard position, for the bulk of the season;

2. Use Kobe Bryant, as the Lakers’ de facto Point Guard … operating beside Derek Fisher, in their Group-Of-5-Best-Players … in a way which requires that he starts their half-court offense with the ball in his hands, far too many times, coming off the dribble up, and then holds it for copious amounts of time, per possession, while his teammates are establishing their positions:

A. In the Triangle Offense, or
B. Within the alignment for a specific quick-hitting set play, or
C. While he isolates at-length against his own individual defender;

all of which STAGNATES their otherwise exceptional offensive flow; 

3. Leave Sasha Vujacic in the proverbial dog-house, as their best perimeter shooting guard, who has seen his overall PT dramatically reduced since the 2007-2008 campaign …

when he:

i. Took 482 3PT shots;
ii. Made 219 3PT shots;
iii. At a rate of 43.7%;

and functioned effectively as one of most dynamic “catch & shoot/hustle play” artists, with good size and decent quickness, at the Off Guard position, in the entire NBA; 

and, 

4. Stifle the development of Jordan Farmer and Shannon Brown [i.e. the 2 best back-ups on the Lakers' roster, at the PG position], who are solid defenders and rebounders, in arrears of Kobe Bryant;

Los Angeles will remain vulnerable to a 1st, or 2nd, or 3rd, Round upset in the playoffs, and may no longer be an absolutely sure thing to win their 2nd consecutive NBA title.

On the other hand …

If the Lakers are able to get, both, Andrew Bynum/C and Luke Walton/SF back in their line-up prior to the end of the regular season schedule and, then, have The ZenMaster come to his senses … sooner rather than later … about items #1-4 [listed above], there is still a high probability that the Larry O’Brien Trophy will, once again, be spending this summer in the hands of Dr. Jerry Buss.

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With only 3 weeks left before the start of the NBA playoffs …

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1/Cleveland vs 8/Toronto
4/Boston vs 5/Milwaukee
==================
2/Orlando vs 7/Charlotte
3/Atlanta vs 6/Miami

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1/LA Lakers vs 8/Portland
4/Phoenix vs 5/Denver
=================
2/Utah vs 7/San Antonio
3/Dallas vs 6/Oklahoma City

it is shaping up to be a wild and wooly post-season, with a number of solid teams in the hunt for the championship, if the Lakers should happen to falter.

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Related:

BREAKING NEWS: Kobe [FINALLY] Agrees to a Contract Extension

According to Kelly Dwyer …

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Kobe Bryant also scored 44 points on 28 shots, a potent night for anyone, much less someone working with nine fingers and all sorts of other ailments.

But he’s shooting too much. You can’t point to that particular night’s shooting percentage and call this a smart deal, not when the Lakers are only managing 101 points per 100 possessions against a rather putrid Memphis defense. Not when the Lakers are currently ninth in offensive efficiency, when they should be first (even with Derek Fisher(notes) around, even with Pau Gasol(notes) missing games) by a long shot.

The ball has to move, others need to be made dangerous, and other options have to be explored. 44 points on 28 shots is great, but you can’t have Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum(notes) combine to take just 10 shots in 56 minutes. Or, 18 fewer than Bryant in 16 more minutes. That’s ridiculous.

And Kobe knows better. In just about every given basketball instance, he knows better. All the greats have known better, and ignored those better instincts to do things his way. Bird did it. Jordan did it. Jerry West did it. But that doesn’t make it right. And you can’t make it a habit. It has to be an occasional dalliance with the very, very wrong.

Not a consistent theme, and that’s what Kobe’s been on about for the last two months or so. We appreciate the grit, the all-world season at an advanced age and on the best team in basketball. We love all these knockout game-winners he’s been throwing in. We know that even if Kobe keeps it up, it might not matter. The Lakers are too good.

Things are starting to turn, though, and it’s up to Kobe to stop it. If you’re a daily reader, you know I’ve been warning about this for a while. He has to let up, he has to involve his teammates, and he has to run the offense. This team is too brilliant for things to be this Kobe-centric; because he’s not waving off Chris Mihm(notes) anymore.

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According to yours truly …

1. If the reports about Ron Artest still struggling to pick up the nuances of the Triangle Offense are, in fact, true, then, there’s a strong, strong likelihood that Kobe Bryant simply doesn’t yet trust his new teammate to execute the proper reads involved with the Triangle, on a possession-by-possession basis, and is therefore jacking-up a pile shots indiscriminently as the better choice of two evils, at least, in his own mind.

2. Phil Jackson’s decision to play Derek Fisher this many minutes, thus far, this season, is costing the Lakers an untold number of points per game, at both ends of the floor … in comparison with the specific skill-sets of Shannon Brown [who is a far superior athlete and a much better defender/rebounder] and Jordan Farmar [who now has a more complete offensive repertoire], at the PG position, neither of whom Phil Jackson happens to trust, just yet, as a key decision-maker coming down the stretch of important games.

3. The best rotations possible for the Lakers look something like this:

OPTION 1

STARTERS
Jordan Farmar, Kobe Bryant, Ron Artest, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum

KEY SUBS
Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton and Lamar Odom

EXTRAS
Derek Fisher, Adam Morrison, Josh Powell and DJ Mbenga

OPTION 2

STARTERS
Jordan Farmar, Kobe Bryant, Luke Walton, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum

KEY SUBS
Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic, Ron Artest and Lamar Odom

EXTRAS
Derek Fisher, Adam Morrison, Josh Powell and DJ Mbenga

and involve:

A. Derek Fisher not getting very much burn, at all;

and/or,

B. Ron Artest [i.e. a powder keg player] being used as a “Key Sub”, rather than as a “Starter”;

neither of which are moves that Phil Jackson seems prepared to make at this point this season.

4. Lingering injuries to Pau Gasol, Luke Walton and Ron Artest have robbed the Lakers of the much-needed opportunity to coalesce, as a well-formed unit, with clearly-defined roles that complement one another.

5. Kobe Bryant is shooting way too much … primarily BECAUSE of #1, #2, #3 and #4.

Until Phil Jackson is better able to:

- Recognize that Derek Fisher’s time is now up, as an on-floor leader/key decision-maker with this team … in spite of his ability to knock down open perimeter shots on occasion

- Make better use of Luke Walton [i.e. a solid glue guy] and Sasha Vujacic [i.e. a solid perimter shooter with good size], as important role players, whether as [i] Starters or [ii] Key Subs

and,

- Help Ron Artest, and his teammates, to play more effectively within the confines of the Triangle Offense

 … the Lakers are going to remain in a vulnerable position this year.

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This LA Lakers team still has more than enough “top flight NBA talent” to win the championship this season … if Phil Jackson is actually prepared to do what’s necessary to bring this about, given his level of loyalty to D-Fish, and his still-developing relationship with Ron Artest, Shannon Brown & Co.

What the Lakers have right now, however, is a significant TRUST issue, and it’s up to Dr. Phil to fix it, over the course of the next 4 months.

According to different on-line reports published yesterday …

Trevor Ariza is now actively looking for greener pastures in which to ply his trade next season.

According to yours truly THAT specific move would be a colossal mistake in judgment … should he land anywhere but in Cleveland, as the principal side-kick to King James.

At present, Mr. Ariza is in the perfect situation for himself … playing and developing his skills at the side of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher, Andrew Bynum, Luke Walton, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, et al., under the expert leadership of the ZenMaster.

Should he choose to give THAT up … in wanton pursuit of greed “more money” … and touch-down with a different team, other than the Cavaliers … there’s a more than fair chance he will play the remainder of his career without winning another NBA Title. 

That said …

If you look at this list of current Free Agents [courtesy of the excellent blog nbaroundtable, operated by Dave]:

2009 NBA Free Agent List - Part Two

… and you’ve actually taken the time to read some or all of what’s been written on various web sites under the name of “khandor” … you should be able to identify those few names which the Lakers SHOULD actively pursue, as a cost-effective replacement for a highly serviceable Wing player like T-Ariza … who seems to be lacking a certain measure of humility and intelligence, at this most interesting stage of his still young career in the NBA … given the financial crunch that Los Angeles finds itself in at the present time.

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Q1. Can you guess those few names correctly?

A1. Methinks, at least, some of you have the ability to do just THAT.

[Hint: Who are the long, relatively athletic Wing players on that list that can defend multiple positions, rebound, run the floor, make occasional jump shots, pass and cut within the Triangle Offense and, perhaps most importantly, also assume a deferential role with the Lakers to the personalities of Black Mamba, et al., at a salary level which would allow LA to keep the rest of their team intact for the coming campaign, in pursuit of back-to-back championships? It really shouldn't be that difficult to figure out.]

PS. The irony involved in a situation like THAT … i.e. for Raptors fans … would simply be outrageous.

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Answers [spelled in reverse]: semaJ, notelgniS; oiramaJ, nooM; tnarG, lliH; yeoJ, maharG; and, yendoR, yenraC.

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Recent Update

* PLEASE NOTE: On the other hand, should T-Ariza actually end up with an outfit like the Portland Trail Blazers, in place of, let’s say, Hedo Turkoglu … that would mean that both he and Kevin Pritchard are, in fact, as smart as this corner of the net had previously given them credit for being.

Please take a good long look at this piece of impressionistic writing about The Game Of NBA Hoops, this year’s runner-up and the newly crowned Champs:

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Behind the Box Score, where we have a champion
I don’t know if anyone expects as much out of this version of the Los Angeles Lakers as I do. I saw 70-win potential in them, heading into this season. Didn’t think it would happen, not with all those variables, but I know that offense and I’ve seen what that defense can do. I know stats and I know where these players were headed. If they got it right, and stayed healthy … 70 wins.

Problem is, they didn’t stay healthy. And some of the career arcs seemed to spin off course.

After completely shoring up Los Angeles’ awful point guard defense from two years ago in 2007-08, Derek Fisher(notes) fell off the face of the earth defensively, like an NFL running back that somehow went from 1300 to 500 yards in a year’s time.

Jordan Farmar(notes), out of nowhere, fell off. Andrew Bynum(notes) tore a significant ligament in his knee, and Kobe Bryant(notes) lost a little bit of patience. A lot of patience. Especially in the first three rounds of this year’s postseason.

But with all of that logged against them? 65 wins, in 82 tries. 81 in 105 attempts, overall. Third in offense, sixth in defense. Those are championship stats, and as much as I’m telling myself to remember this team at its best, I’ll probably remember this team for not being able to take that extra step. Coming close, but falling short due to injury, slumps, and an impatient tone in May.

And I should stop, because that’s being ridiculous. Could it have gone better? Could it have gone smarter?

Yes, and yes. And guess what? They’re not robots. And, from November until mid-June, they walked all over this league.

The playoffs, I’m sorry, but that was a tough, tough run. Laugh at the Utah Jazz all you want, but that team can play. And some of the best offensive stretches (small things, good four or five minute runs, but “stretches” nevertheless) I’ve ever seen in my life came from these Lakers against a Jazz team some picked to win the West before the season started.

The Rockets? Chortle if you must at the absence of Tracy McGrady(notes) and (eventually) Yao Ming(notes), but that was an impossibly-tough defensive team that had advantages in all the right slots (Aaron Brooks taking on Fisher’s defense, most profoundly), and were about as stern as second round warnings come.

The Denver Nuggets? Mock if you will, but that was a championship caliber team that had quite a few pundits wondering aloud about who, exactly, would win a Denver/Orlando Finals pairing. They weren’t wrong in that line of thinking, because the Nuggets were good enough to get there.

And the Lakers were good enough to top them all.

And they were great enough to down the Orlando Magic in five games.

Three may have been close. Two may have been won in overtime, but they beat a great, great team four out of five times in June. That is so, so impressive.

These are the things we have to remember. These are the things we need to appreciate, now. Not just for this week, as something to chew on before the Draft hits and free agency takes over.

But for all time. These Lakers were a powerhouse.

These Lakers are a powerhouse.

Understand what the Lakers did to Orlando, with their offense. Please.

Teams double-team offensive firebrands like Kobe Bryant all season long. But nobody seems to get away with doubling Kobe, not just because of Kobe’s brilliance, but because of Los Angeles’ offense. And when the Magic, the best defensive team in the NBA did it, Los Angeles seemed to have a 6-on-3 advantage due to that offense, with its unmatched spacing. Not just your typical 4-on-3. The Magic were helpless once that ball started moving.

115, 104, 121, 103 and 110 points per 100 possessions for the Lakers in the series. That’s against the NBA’s best defense, a defense that gave up only 101.9 points per 100 points on average during the regular season. If the Lakers are the unstoppable force, and the Magic were the unmovable object, well, the force wouldn’t stop. And the object got to moving.

That’s the stuff I have to remind myself of. The Laker defense, however, will be hard to forget. Splayed out in front of me from Games 1 through 5, is the biggest thing I’ll take from this series.

Now, Orlando isn’t exactly the 2005 Phoenix Suns. They can fill it up as they did during Game 3, but they were still 11^th in offense during the regular season. So it’s not the greatest accomplishment if you shut them down.

But watching that Laker defense in person? Observing that all-out effort? The length? The timing? The game plan (Phil Jackson’s assistants are just the gold standard)? The results?

Seeing the way Trevor Ariza(notes) absolutely manhandled Hedo Turkoglu? It wasn’t just that he was playing him physically; he was beating him to the spot, every time down court. By the end of Game 4, Hedo wanted absolutely nothing to do with playing against this guy, any more. Ariza just swallowed him up.

Speaking of which, Pau Gasol(notes)?

You might be sick of me going on about it, but the way this man was able to move his feet, I swear, it was downright Rodman-ian at times. I don’t toss that out there lightly. He had help, especially from slap-happy Laker guards and Lamar Odom(notes) on the baseline, but Pau deserves so, so much credit that I regret to assume he’ll never get for his work in this series. Just swallowed Dwight Howard up.

Kobe’s help defense was excellent. After years of me banging on about how I don’t believe he’s earned those all-NBA Defensive Team selections (I still don’t, because for the good of the Lakers, he takes defensive possessions off. Lots of them), this was continued proof (proof that I didn’t need, mind you) that Bryant is amongst the game’s best defensively when he has the ability to be.

And after a year spent working with Tim Grover, Bryant had that needed stamina. I talked with Grover after Game 5, and he wasted no time telling me that he thought the media reaction to Kobe’s supposed weary-legged ways was “hogwash,” mainly because Grover and Bryant had developed a system of stamina-building and rest that even went down to ways of conserving energy while others shoot free throws.

“Every second counts,” he told me. And while we were talking about little breaks in the action meant to refuel and reinvigorate, he may as well have been talking about Bryant’s overall approach to the game he’s obsessed with.

Kobe’s mannerisms may annoy the piss out of you. He might come off as transparent, or cloying, or obvious in his approach. It shouldn’t matter. The guy works hard. He obsesses over the game more than anyone in this league. And there’s a reason why, even if he isn’t as dominant a force as Jordan and Bird and Magic were, he still seems to put together just as many highlights as they did.

Not because he’s a publicity hound, desperate to make the cable recaps. Far from it. It’s because he knows the game well enough to work in this Laker offense and make the phenomenal look, well, phenomenal. Because he’s developed all the moves.

This isn’t to say he still isn’t worth shouting at. He does things in and out of that offense that leave stomping my feet with frustration, and I could give a rip who wins or loses. I’m not going to tell you that he’s earned the right to freelance as much as he does in that offense, because nobody should freelance in that offense, that much. Michael Jordan certainly didn’t, even when he wanted us to believe that he did.

What I can tell you is that the man deserves our respect. This paragraph used to be several paragraphs. It included several reasons why he deserves our respect. It could have grown into dozens of reasons why. I’m not going to bore you with them. I’m just going to demand that you appreciate a guy like Kobe Bryant, while he’s around.

This was more of a team victory than the coverage surrounding it will suggest. Bryant has a team that suits his talents, and I’m not trying to be obscure or contrarian when I suggest that Gasol’s defense was certainly on par with Kobe’s offense in this series, and that Bryant’s defense was about even with Gasol’s offense, making them both MVP candidates.

But if anyone deserves to be pushed forward, singularly, when four or five others deserve the spotlight as well, it’s Kobe. Because of that unending obsession, the one we all want our favorite players on our favorite teams to have.

And if Kobe’s your favorite player, on your favorite team? Congratulations. Because I don’t think this team is done, yet.

Bryant may be in his 30s, but there is absolutely no reason why he can’t have the security and the willingness to fade into the background a bit, as was the case with the man who drafted him, Jerry West. You know he’s smart enough to pull it off.

The 1971-72 Lakers set a then-NBA record for wins in a season with 69, and though West and Wilt Chamberlain were that team’s most enduring superstars, Jerry was second on the team in scoring, and Chamberlain was fourth. There’s no reason Kobe can’t take a step back, work as a facilitator, and remain his team’s most dangerous offensive contributor even if he does rack up the points or (and this is important) the assists. That’s up to Kobe, ever mindful of his place in history, to be secure enough to assume that we’d understand.

It’s also up to us to understand. To see why scaring people on the weak side offensively can be just as potent as nailing a 17-footer in Courtney Lee’s face. Hell, if we were good enough to appreciate Jackie Robinson scaring the wits out of the pitcher as he moved up and down the third base line, why can’t we admire the same from basketball players?

That’s in the future, we hope. For now, I guess I have to come back, and throw another bon mot Los Angeles’ way as the season ends. It wouldn’t be the first time.

I remember wrapping up a season-ending BtB for the last game of the 1999-00 season, giddy with potential, looking forward to a possible Laker dynasty even after a wearying season such as the one we just worked through. “See you next year,” I wrote. It’s what I ended the post with.

Of course, the site I wrote for didn’t make it ‘til the next season. And the site I wrote for after that didn’t make it to the Finals the next year. And the site I wrote for after that wasn’t really interested in detailing the game action. And on it went, for years.

And last year? Boy, I had fun. And I loved those Boston Celtics. But you never got a chance that they were in it for much more than 2008, and possibly 2009. Turns out, the former was right.

These Lakers? They look set to dominate. And that, to me, is never a bad thing when the basketball is good. And with these Lakers, the basketball is so, so good.

I don’t care that this franchise always seems to be in the Finals. I don’t care that we’ve seen these faces before. I don’t care if we know, by Christmas, who’s going to win it all.

I care about great basketball. And outside of my family and friends and the readers that dare pull me up every morning, it’s always been what I care about the most.

The Los Angeles Lakers are giving us great basketball. Time and time again, on both sides. And whatever happens from here on out, whatever form they take, whatever fork they choose, I’ll always appreciate what they gave me, us, this season.

See you next year. I mean it, this time.

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The fact is …

Nobody in the business today does THIS better than KD.

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PS. KD, the only quibble is a minor one … with the 1st sentence in this specific excerpt. IMO, there was [at least] one other person with an even higher level of expectation than you had for this version of the Lakers. i.e. This is a special team. Keep On Truck’n

THIS OLD MAN

One - Point Guard, D-Fish
Two - Off Guard, Black Mamba
Three - Small Forward, Trevor Ariza
Four - Power Forward/Center, Pau Gasol
Five - Center, Andrew Bynum
Six - Back-up PG, Jordan Farmar
Seven - Back-up OG, Sasha Vujacic
Eight - Back-up SF, Luke Walton
Nine - Back-up PF, Lamar Odom
Ten - Back-up Center, DJ Mbenga

That is how the Lakers got to Heaven
With a knick-knack paddywhack, give a dog a bone
This old man came rolling home

Complete Info - Game Four [Jun 11, 2009]

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As was said here yesterday …

“Expect LA’s timing to be more in sync this time out … with this being their 4th day in the Eastern Zone … and for them to commit slightly fewer Turnovers [Game Three/13]. Whichever team wins the Rebounding Battle … especially on key possessions coming down the stretch in the 4th quarter … should emerge with the W. ”

Even playing through an OT, the Lakers commited just 7 Turnovers.

Entering the 4th quarter, with a sizable deficit on the boards, the Lakers rebounded well coming down the stretch, battled for and recovered several loose balls, and closed the gap to only -2 [39/41].

There is no substitute for:

1. Championship game experience.

2. Loyalty to those whom you trust, implicitly, at the moment of truth.

3. Being able to Protect & Rebound the ball.

4. Maintaining one’s Concentration & Belief through extreme adversity.

5. Being able to Minimize & Take Best/Full Advantage of Mis-match situations.

* There’s a reason why the Lakers elected to in-bound the ball in the back-court, down by 3 points, with only 10.8 secs remaining in regulation time.

* Derek Fisher [six-foot-something] might not have been able to shoot, and make, his crucial 3PT-shot [4.6 secs] over a taller PG than Jameer Nelson [who is five-foot-something].

“Life is fast, and things happen quickly.” - Derek Fisher [#1/PG]

Kudos … to [both, Big Chief Triangle and] the LA Lakers’ Little Big Man!

———-

PS. “Sometimes the Magic works; sometimes it doesn’t.” - Chief Dan George [Little Big Man]

FINAL SCORE: LAKERS 100, Magic 75 [Game One]
Complete Game Info

The Maestro Doin’ Work last night on The Boys from Disneyland.

Lakers lead the series, 1-0.

Los Angeles dominated the boards, 55-41.

Andrew Bynum & Pau Gasol were terrific, in addition to Black Mamba.

“Sometimes it gets late pretty early.” [in a series like this one]
- Jeff Van Gundy quoting from Yogi Berra

“He’s got THAT Look.”
- Mike Breen

“He’s got that GAME.”
- JVG

———-

Nothing more need be said. 

Current Odds To Win This Series
Orlando +245
LOS ANGELES -265

The first question which needs to be asked and then answered regarding this series is:

Q1. What 5-Man Unit will the Lakers use to begin Game One?

A1. Either, Option I, Option II or Option III [see below]:

Q2. Which Option actually presents the better set of individual match-ups for each team?

A2. That’s the $64,000 Question for this series.

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Orlando’s Perspective

Option I
Gives the Magic their best opportunity to succeed, emphasizing Turkoglu’s Size & Skill Advantage vs Ariza, plus Lewis’ Quickness Advantage vs Gasol.

Option II
Limits the Magic to Turkoglu’s Size & Skill Advantage vs Ariza.  

Option III
Chokes Off the Magic’s Offense, eliminating their Individual Advantages. 

Los Angeles’ perspective

Option I
Gives the Lakers a chance to attack Lewis in the Pinch-Post position vs Gasol; but, exposes Gasol on the perimeter vs Lewis’ superior quickness.

Option II
Allows Bynum to work vs the Magic’s back-ups; but, exposes Gasol to be attacked by Howard in Low Block Post-ups.

Option III
Exposes Gasol to attacks by Howard; BUT, also ensures that Kobe can GO TO WORK vs Lee, unfettered, while, Bynum gets to work vs the Magic’s back-ups.

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Despite the Lakers now being a prohibitive favourite to win this series, there is still some legitimate “value” to be had with a play on the Magic, at +245 … if Los Angeles decides to go at Orlando with its customary M.O. [Option I].

That said, however, there is nothing about this series which SPELLS the word U-P-S-E-T, given the Individual Match-ups listed above.

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Related:

Charley Rosen’s 2009 NBA Finals Preview

Q1. Can the Cavaliers rebound from a 1-2 game deficit to win the EC Finals vs the Magic?

A1. Yes, they can.

Q2. Can the Nuggets claw their way back from a similar deficit to vanquish the Lakers in the WC Finals?

A2. Yes, they can.

———-

Both teams are capable of orchestrating a comeback to reach the Finals this season, based on the prodigious talents of players like Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony & Chauncey Billups.

However … that specific scenario is now quite unlikely to happen.

How come?

From top to bottom, and when healthy …

The two best teams in the NBA today are the Orlando Magic and the Los Angeles Lakers, and each one is simply too good to be overcome by their respective opponents in their conference finals series, both of which are missing key elements when it comes to actually winning the championship.

What The Cavaliers Are Still Missing

* Their best 5-Man Unit has yet to play any significant time together during their series vs Orlando, i.e. PG/Gibson, OG/Pavlovic, SF/James, PF/Varejao & C/Ilgauskas

* Mike Brown needs to develop a better feel for the game, and increased dexterity, as a Head Coach

* A 2nd Marquee Player at the Guard and/or Forward position with good size

What The Nuggets Are Still Missing

* A team playing a thuggish brand of basketball will not win the NBA Championship … because the rules of the game, rightfully, will not allow it

* More poise under pressure from players not named Chauncey Billups

* At least one more year’s worth of experience which goes beyond the 1st Round of the Playoffs

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Looking back on the 2008-2009 regular season schedule:

December 20, 2008, Lakers at Magic, 103-106
January 16, 2009, Lakers vs Magic, 103-109

it’s most likely that this year’s NBA Finals series will have the makings of an all-time classic … even though the current MVP may well have been eliminated from the competition, by that point.

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On May 19, 2009 the wagering odds to win the 2008-2009 NBA Title were as follows:

Los Angeles Lakers
Yes/+220
No/-250 

Orlando Magic
Yes/+1800
No/-2300

both of which are looking like very solid propositions with each passing day.

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Throughout their rosters, both teams have What it takes to win the NBA Championship this season:

Orlando Magic [59-23]
PDR - 4
PAR - 6
RDR - 9
QR -19
QIR - 5
Rafer Alston, Anthony Johnson, Courtney Lee, Tyronn Lue, JJ Redick, Mickael Pietrus, Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Tony Battie, Adonal Foyle, Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat & Stan Van Gundy

Los Angeles Lakers [65-17]
PDR - 2
PAR - 14
RDR - 5
QR - 21
QIR - 6
Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Kobe Bryant, Sasha Vujacic, Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Josh Powell, DJ Mbenga & Phil Jackson

Legend:
PDR - Points Differential Ranking; PAR - Points Allowed Ranking; RDR - Rebound Differential Ranking; QR - Qaulity Rating; QIR - Quality Index Ranking

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Related:

When Orlando has it going 

Current Odds To Win the Series
Denver Nuggets +231
LOS ANGELES LAKERS -251

Although Denver has played very well to this point in the Playoffs, they do not enjoy a host of different match-up advantages vs Los Angeles, like they did vs Dallas and New Orleans.

In particular, the specific spots where the Nuggets have possessed major advantages … i.e. at the PG [although that might be difficult for CP3 lovers to believe] and PF/C positions, plus in terms Quality Depth, overall … will not be the case in this series:

Point Guard

* Billups’ game is based on strength, not quickness. Whereas Aaron Brooks was too quick for Derek Fisher … physical strength & guile just happen to be two strengths of D-Fish, as well.

* Anthony Carter is a highly capable Back-up PG. The combination of Jordan Farmar & Shannon Brown is equally formidable.

Power Forward/Center

* Nene, Kenyon Martin, Chris Anderson & Johan Petro is a versatile and highly effective set of Bigs. So, too, however, is Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom & Josh Powell.  

Quality Depth

* JR Smith, Anderson, Carter, Linas Kleiza, Petro, Jason Hart & Renaldo Balkman are a stout and highly serviceable Group of 7, coming off the bench. However, they are not a superior force, in comparison with the Lakers’ corresponding re-inforcements, i.e. Sasha Vujacic, Odom, Farmar, Luke Walton, Powell, Brown & DJ Mbenga.  

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Please Note:
At the moment, the Lakers are +220 to Win the 2008-2009 NBA Title. For those so inclined, this is a VERY GOOD proposition.