khandor’s sports blog

Sources: Pistons, John Kuester to split

Detroit Pistons head coach John Kuester will not be returning for the 2011-12 season, according to sources. Although there has been no official word from the Pistons, sources say it is expected that president Joe Dumars and his staff will be returning.

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The Good News

After 2 very disappointing seasons at the helm in Detroit, it now seems likely that John Kuester will not be the Pistons’ head coach going forward.

The Bad News

Mike Woodson is not the type of elite level basketball coach who the Pistons need to find, in order to [eventually] reclaim their former spot in the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference.

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PS. Hopefully, Joe Dumars [GM] will show better judgment than this and choose to go in a different direction when he fills the Pistons’ head coach position.

In the summer of 2009 yours truly made the observation that the 2008-2009 version of the Detroit Pistons had an on-going “internal” problem with their former head coach, Michael Curry, and the team’s core group of players who had been with Detroit during the successful run of the previous decade.

Essentially, this is what was said:

1. The Pistons had been unsuccessful, in large part … not because they had only “average-to-below-average” players on their roster, but … because the “average-to-above-average” players on their team had not been used appropriately by their head coach and such problems with their regular “rotation” would continue to be the primary cause of their failure, if the right head coach was not brought in by Joe Dumars/GM to address the situation moving forward.

2. Clear “Role Delineation” is a key component of a successful basketball coach’s job.

3. Fostering “Team Cohesion” is a key component of “Role Delineation” for a successful basketball coach.

4. An elite level basketball team that has several players who work best at the same position with a similar set of strengths and weaknesses needs to have their “individual roles” identified clearly by the head coach, in a way which establishes a clear hierarchy and allows their “best” players to receive the most playing time, on a consistent basis.

5. One way … of many different alternatives … to accomplish this type of “regular rotation” for the 2009-2010 Detroit Pistons, given their collection of Point Guards, Off Guards, Combo Guards, Guard-Forwards, Small Forwards and Combo Forwards would be to implement:

i. An exclusive 3-player rotation at the Point Guard and Off Guard positions;

in concert with,

ii. An exclusive 2-player rotation at the Small Forward position;

that looked something like the following:

STARTERS
PG, Rodney Stuckey
OG, Rip Hamilton
SF, Tayshaun Prince

KEY SUBS
PG-OG, Ben Gordon
SF, Jonas Jerebko [or Austin Daye]  

and, thereby, excluded Will Bynum [PG] – a talented player, in his own right – from the mix on a consistent basis.

This type of regular rotation would have promoted very clear “Role Delineation” amongst the Pistons’ guards and forwards and enhanced “Team Cohesion”. 

Unfortunately, instead of doing this …

Last Season 

John Kuester [i.e. new head coach] juggled his players incessantly in the different Point Guard, Off Guard and Small Forward roles;

and,

This Season

The problem has only become worse with the inclusion of Tracy McGrady [PG-OG-SF].

Exhibit A - Prince and Kuester have words. Again.

Exhibit B – Pistons aren’t playing hard

Exhibit C - Hamilton at center of Pistons turmoil

Exhibit D

Pistons’ turmoil boils over, coach ejected in loss 

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Despite what you might have read - either, recently or over the last 2 seasons - from other “so-called” basketball analysts who rely primarily on stat-based metrics like “Wins Produced”, etc., to evaluate the abilities and relative worth of NBA players …

The main problem for the Pistons, since Larry Brown’s departure, as their head coach, has not been rooted in the ”below average” abilities of their players but the “poor fit” between their “best” players and the men Joe Dumars/GM has hired as their next 3 head coaches, i.e. Flip Saunders, Michael Curry and John Kuester. 

While these Detroit teams have been short of the sort of overall “talent level” required to compete successfully for a place in the NBA Finals, this is not the main reason they have plummeted down the Eastern Conference standings, since the trade of Chauncey Billups [PG] for Allen Iverson [PG-OG].

In relative terms …

Authentic elite level basketball coaches are a rare commodity.

When a given NBA team fails to hire one of these select individuals to lead their on-court operation, it should really come as no surprise, at all, if the players on their roster are not able to reach their maximum capacity, either, individually or as a collective unit.

Hopefully, Joe D. will be able to solve THIS on-going problem for the Pistons.

Looking at the way the Detroit Pistons have performed during their last 7 games:

it should now be relatively easy for others to see that the main reason this team has wallowed in the bottom third of the Eastern Conference Standings, to this point this season, has been the relatively poor job done by John Kuester and the Lack of Team Cohesion his personnel decisions have fostered.

The stark reality for the Pistons this year is that …

There has always been more than enough legitimate NBA talent on-hand for Detroit to compete effectively for a lower tier playoff position in the Eastern Conference … as long as their head coach doesn’t muck it up by:

I. Refusing to settle on one of many different possible solid 8-9 player rotations;

and,

II. Creating a series of needless internal conflicts with the best players on the team.

… in contrast to what you may have been told by certain ‘stats gurus’ who think that the Pistons’ main problem has been rooted elsewhere. 

Unfortunately, as long as John Kuester is head coach for the Pistons …

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Richard Hamilton on the sideline as Pistons fall to Grizzlies

He stood away from the team during timeouts, talking with longtime teammate Ben Wallace.

Richard Hamilton managed to crack a few smiles, despite registering his first healthy “did not play-coaches decision” in his career as a Piston.

His name being the subject of serious trade rumors for a week, he sat and watched as his teammates dropped their second straight game, losing 107-99 to the Memphis Grizzlies at the Palace on Tuesday night.

“They didn’t tell me anything, I was definitely surprised,” Hamilton said after the game. “Do I think it was a level of disrespect or unfair or anything? I’ll leave that to you all.”

Teammate Tayshaun Prince chimed in and said, “buffoonery. Do you all know what that means?”

Hamilton said the game is usually his sanctuary, a place he can tune out all the chaos surrounding him, but Tuesday was a different story. He was asked if he wanted to be traded.

“I can’t control that. Like if I wanted to play, I couldn’t control it,” Hamilton said. “Only thing I can do is prepare myself to play and give the fans what they want. It just wasn’t that way tonight.”

When asked if he was eager for a change, Hamilton said: “I really can’t answer that right now.

“It’s tough, especially when you’re not playing. You can kind of isolate everything that’s going on. When you’re not playing, (it’s) ‘what did I do? So I try to stay motivated. I can’t control my minutes, my playing time.”

The Pistons’ franchise leader in playoff scoring said he wouldn’t approach coach John Kuester about it or Pistons president Joe Dumars, saying “I don’t talk to nobody. Maybe you all need to talk to them (management).”

As for the future, that’s a question no one is willing to address.

“We shortened the rotation and changed the lineup,” Kuester said. “That was it.”

Kuester said everybody’s gotten a chance to turn things around, and that Hamilton’s sitting was nothing to read into.

“When you put Rodney at the two, and depending on matchup situations, somebody has to be out,” Kuester said. “Right now we’re searching to find a group that can get the job done.”

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… it now seems as though whatever NBA-level talent this club has on its current roster is simply going to waste away.

Results For Pistons Last 10 Road Games

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Published Wagering Line

Opening: TORONTO RAPTORS -4.5/-110

Current: TORONTO RAPTORS -5.5/-105 [as of 11:00 AM today]

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KSS Prognostication

No call.

Those who would try to tell you that they have a solid grasp of what specific line-up the Pistons will trot out this evening vs the Raptors are being disingenuous.

If Detroit chooses to use a ‘non-buffoonery’ type rotation … that is similar to what they did the last time they visited Toronto … then, the Pistons could well blow the Raptors out, once again.

If, however, Detroit chooses to use a ‘buffoonery’ type rotation … that is similar to what they did for their last game, vs Memphis … then, the chances are equally good that the Raptors will win tonight’s game by a double-digit margin.

Best to stay as far away from this game as possible.

As was mentioned here yesterday …

If John Kuester is not going to settle on a specific rotation for the Pistons this year, then, Detroit will most likely drop to the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.

However, it would be a serious mistake in Basketball Judgment for anyone to think that the chief reason for this type of precipitous decline in the fortunes of this franchise is due to the overall poor quality of the players on their present roster.

Detroit Pistons [10-19] 115
TORONTO RAPTORS [10-19] 93
Complete Game Info

Despite the fact that the Raptors went into last night’s game with a depleted line-up …

Jerryd Bayless [Out - illness]
Sonny Weems [Out - injured]
Peja Stojakovic [Out - injured]
Reggie Evans [Out - injured]

and were forced to use already-injured starters Jose Calderon [PG] and Andrea Bargnani [C] for copious amounts of minutes – even though they were both playing poorly - and were forced to play the final 26:43 without the services of their starting PF, Amir Johnson [who sufferred a re-occurrence of his on-going trouble with back spasms] …

The specific rotation which the Pistons used in this game is but one example of what can happen when a team’s players have a solid understanding of their respective individual roles, and their head coach uses them in combinations that actually make a good deal of sense from an Individual Match-up perspective.

If you take a look at the “Substitution Chart” from last night’s game:

and the Play-By-Play for the 2nd half of the 2nd quarter:

you should be able to see where exactly the Pistons dismantled the Raptors during two specific segments of the 2nd quarter AND used a different rotation than they have employed at any other point so far this season that looks like this:

which allowed their team to take advantage of certain mis-match situations on offense, while limiting their exposure to disadvantageous mis-match situations at the defensive end of the floor.

Kudos to John Kuester.

Unfortunately, this is what the Pistons’ topsy-turvy rotation has looked like for the past 4 games:

As long as John Kuester refuses to develop a consistent 8 or 9 player rotation for this team, there is no longer any reason to believe that Detroit might actually have what it takes to compete effectively for a lower tier playoff position in the Eastern Conference.

Considering:

1. The Pistons’ W-L Record, since Game 22 …

Game # – Results [W-L Rec, Game 22-41; W-L Rec, 2010-2011]

Game 22 – L, @ HOUSTON, 83-97 [0-1; 7-15]
Game 23 – L, @ NEW ORLEANS, 74-93 [0-2; 7-16]
Game 24 – L, @ MINNESOTA, 99-109 [0-3; 7-17]
Game 25 – L, vs Toronto, 116-120 [0-4; 7-18]
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Game 26 – W, vs Atlanta, 103-80 [1-4; 8-18]
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Game 27 – L, vs LA Clippers, 88-109 [1-5; 8-19]
Game 28 – W, vs New Orleans, 111-108 OT [2-5; 9-19];

2. The probable outcomes for their games between today and the mid-point of the regular season schedule:

Game 29 – L-?, @ TORONTO [2-6; 9-20]
Game 30: L-?, vs Chicago [2-7; 9-21]
Game 31: L-?, @ CHARLOTTE [2-8; 9-22]
Game 32: L-? @ BOSTON [2-9; 9-23]
Game 33: L-?, @ PHOENIX [2-10; 9-24]
Game 34: L-?, @ UTAH [2-11; 9-25]
Game 35: L-?, @ LA LAKERS [2-12; 9-26]
Game 36: W-?, vs Philadelphia [3-12; 10-26]
Game 37: L-?, @ Chicago [3-13; 10-27]
Game 38: L-?, vs Memphis [3-14; 10-28]
Game 39: L-?, @ TORONTO [3-15; 10-29]
Game 40: W-?, vs Sacramento [4-15; 11-29]
Game 41: L-?, @ BOSTON [4-16; 11-30];

3. The recent turmoil surrounding Rip Hamilton;

and,

4. The following almost unbelievable quote from Coach Kuester:

“He was cramping up and didn’t want to come out. I was so proud of the way he competed the whole time.” 

regarding his “positive” impression of the so-called “work” put in by Charlie Villanueva … a ridiculously poor defender, intermittent rebounder and, in general, irresponsible chucker … in Detroit’s win over New Orleans;

there is now a strong possibility that the Pistons will eventually finish in one of the bottom two positions in the East this year … and, in the process, secure the rights to one of the high selections in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery.

Once this happens, however, and Karen Davidson is able to sell the team, then, the Pistons should at least be in a decent position to gradually work their way back up the standings … with a group of fairly talented youngsters on-board already, including Rodney Stuckey, Jonas Jerebko, Austin Daye, DaJuan Summers and Greg Monroe … the addition of a top tier selection in the upcoming draft, and the hiring of a new head coach who actually knows what he’s doing, as an elite level practicioner.

Well, well, well.

The Pistons’ re-vamped 9-man rotation looked like this, in tonight’s demolition of the Hawks:

Atlanta Hawks 80
DETROIT PISTONS 103
Complete Game Info

It will be very interesting to see if Coach Kuester has the good “basketball sense” to stick with this ‘new & improved’ philosophy … or, at least, a close facsimile of it … for the balance of the season.

If he does:

1. He will finally be making a sound personnel decision and conducting his affairs like a solid NBA head coach;

and,

2. Any knowledgeable basketball observer should not be surprised, at all, to see the Pistons remain in contention for a lower tier playoff position the balance of this campaign;

in spite of what s/he may have been told before by so-called ‘stats gurus‘.

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Related:

Detroit Pistons host the Atlanta Hawks: Where’s Your JOD Now? 

[ROTFLOLWKAS]

In the aftermath of the Pistons’ latest debacle …

Toronto Raptors 120
DETROIT PISTONS 116
Complete Game Info

It is very interesting to see and read today what others NOW believe is the main source of the problems for the 2010-2011 edition of their team.

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Coach John Kuester’s Pistons an absolute mess

Pistons coach John Kuester said he wanted to take a long look at the game film of the Pistons’ stunning 120-116 loss to the Raptors to figure out how they blew a 25-point second-half lead after scoring a season-high 72 points in the first half.

Kuester is wasting his time.

The problems Saturday cannot be found on game film. They are between the ears and are etched inside of a coach who cannot pull the right gears.

They are the same problems that occurred when the Pistons blew a seven-point lead to the Nets during the final seconds in the season opener. They are the same problems that caused the Pistons to blow a 21-point lead to the Bulls and saw them trail the Warriors by as many as 32 points.

The Pistons began the season with a system in which players did not know their roles. And six weeks into the season, that has not changed.

“Everybody’s role is different this year,” guard Richard Hamilton said. “We are all playing different roles and our minutes are reduced, so the way you are accustomed to playing, you are no longer playing that way any more. We don’t know who is going to play in the fourth quarter, what we are going to run in the fourth quarter.

“It is all up in the air. We are trying to learn to figure out what we are supposed to do.”

Kuester took the blame for the Pistons’ latest loss. He also should take blame for the Pistons’ dismal season because he has not been able to lend stability to the team. A coach’s job is to put players in the best position to win. That is not happening, because players don’t even know what position they are supposed to be in.

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In general …

Time - i.e. the only arbitrator that truly matters – eventually has a funny way of proving, exactly, who it was that actually had the most accurate understanding of a specific situation, at a given point in time …

Pistons main problem this year is their head coach [Mar 3 2010]

Specific reasons why the Pistons lost another winnable game [Mar 4 2010]

and, who it was …

that did not.

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“He who laughs last, laughs best.“ - American Idiom

A prime example of the reason most NBA aficionados should pay little attention to what is said by different “stats gurus” when it comes to understanding properly how the game actually works …

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Do the Pistons need better coaching 

To quickly summarize… Michael Leeds, Eva Marikova Leeds, Michael Mondello, and I examined 30 years of player performance data.  Our study indicated that of the 62 NBA coaches we examined, more than 75% had no statistically significant impact on player performance.  In other words, most NBA coaches fail to systematically alter the productivity of the players they are given to lead.

And that suggests the problems the Pistons are having this year are not about coaching or leadership. 

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If you try to follow the actual logic involved with this type of fraudulent thinking about the game of basketball it looks something like this:

Observation #1
75% of the NBA coaches involved with this study showed no significant impact on player performance.

Observation #2
Most NBA coaches involved with this study failed to systematically alter the productivity of their players.

Conclusion
Observation #1 and #2 suggests that the Pistons’ problems this season are somehow NOT rooted in the performance/ability of their coach, or the type of leadership which he has provided, thus far.

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Now … based strictly on the logic involved with these two straight-forward observations, and the conclusion drawn by the writer of these words, Professor David Berri … the $64,000 question is:

Q1. Does this make sense to you? 

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Well … if you happen to be someone who thinks in a logical way, then … the accurate answer is:

A1. No, unfortunately, it does NOT.

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As an alternative way of thinking …

Perhaps THIS will make sense to you, instead:

Observation #1
75% of NBA coaches involved with this study had no significant impact on player performance.

Observation #2
Most [e.g. 75%-?] of the NBA coaches involved with this study failed to systemmatically alter the performance of their players.

Observation #3
The 25% of NBA coaches that actually fall into the category of those who DO have a significant impact on player performance are amongst “the best” coaches in the league, on an annual basis. 

Observation #4
75% [or more] of NBA teams are coached by individuals who actually fall into the category of those who have NO significant impact on player performance.

Observation #5
The Detroit Pistons won 27 games last season with John Kuester as their head coach and failed to qualify for the playoffs for the first time in the last decade.

Observation #6
This season the Detroit Pistons have failed to win a single game with John Kuester as their head coach … having also returned a high percentage of their player personnel from the 2009-2010 season.

Conclusion
Based solely on the data involved with the actual study referenced and conducted by Professor Berri, et al., there is zero [i.e. "0"] tangible evidence that the Detroit Pistons’ problems, while working under John Kuester, are NOT related to HIS coaching and leadership, as an individual who may, in fact, fall into the category of NBA coaches [e.g. 75%-?] with no significant impact on player performance … in sharp contrast to those relative few “elite level” NBA coaches [e.g. 25%-?] who DO have the ability to systematically alter [i.e. improve] the performance of their players.  

Toronto Raptors [39-42] 111
DETROIT PISTONS [27-55] 97
Complete Game Info

PART 1 – The Twitter Effect

As soon as you read Charlie Villanueva’s tweet from yesterday afternoon …

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Pistons’ Charlie Villanueva guarantees win against Raptors

“Guarantee win tonight, yeah I said it,” is a tweet that appeared on Villanueva’s account about 2:35 p.m. today.

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you just knew that the Raptors would be good to go into Detroit last night and pummel the Pistons.

PART 2 – The Big Ben Effect

Although Ben Wallace/C has had a decent year, defensively, in his return to Detroit, it was rather comical to see the combinations of:

i. He and Jonas Jerebko
[-9 vs Bargnani/Johnson; +2 vs Bargnani/Turkoglu], or

ii. He and Charlie Villanueva
[-4 vs Bargnani/Johnson; -1 vs Bargnani/Turkoglu], or

iii. He and Tayshaun Prince
[-6 vs Bargnani/Johnson], or

iv. He and Jason Maxiell
[-6 vs Bargnani/Johnson]