khandor’s sports blog

In response to a most interesting article by David Berri …

The Impact of Losing Greg Oden
The primary purpose of this post was to highlight how good Oden had played this season (to see how good, please read the post).  Certainly it’s possible that the Blazers could overcome this loss.  But it seems fairly likely that Portland’s season is not going to go quite as well as I thought earlier this year. 

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1. The Blazers were NEVER going to be the best team in the West this season.

2. The Blazers’ overall development arc, as “one of the best teams in the West”, will involve a wider sweep than just 2 or 3 seasons.

3. The problems with this year’s Blazers [at least, so far] this season were not rooted in the play of Greg Oden but in the following list of developments from the last 6 months:

i. Unnecessarily soliciting the services of Hedo Turkoglu [SF/Orlando who eventually signed with Toronto as an UFA], which upset/disrupted the flow they had been developing with Travis Outlaw [PF-SF] and Rudy Fernandez [SF-OG-PG];

ii. Unnecessarily signing a superfluous, ball-dominating PG, like Andre Miller [as an UFA/Philadelphia];

iii. The protracted contract extension negotiations with Brandon Roy [OG-PG-SF] and LaMarcus Aldridge [PF-C]; and,

iv. Re-integrating Martell Webster [OG-SF], a top 8 player, returning from an injury-lost season, into their everyday rotation.

v. The injury sufferred by Nicolas Batum [SF-OG], a long and athletic player who can Defend and Rebound at his specific positions;

vi. The injury sufferred by Travis Outlaw [PF-SF], an under-sized but very versatile and effective player who can: A. take/make big [jump] shots [catch & shoots, plus pull-ups] in the 4th quarter; B. Defend, at the #3/SF or #4/PF with good length and athleticism; and, C. Rebound, at the #/SF or #4/PF position with good length and athleticism.

vii. The long term effects of the “health scare” which their owner, Paul Allen, had last season, that artificially “pushed forward” the team’s perceived “development arc” this past summer in a way which their team was unprepared to cope with at this time … i.e. trying to “win now [!]” instead of gradually continuing their “incremental build-up” over an extended number of years [5-7?].

If Kevin Pritchard truly understands what’s been happening with his squad this season, from a team-building standpoint, then, what he’ll do now is:

I. Not try to “replace” Oden from outside his current group of players;

II. Continue to repair their internal relationships with Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Fernandez;

III. Move Andre Miller for another better-fitting asset, asap;

IV. Allow his group of Core Players to continue to grow together organically … while integrating this off-season’s main additions from the 2009 NBA Draft, i.e. Dante Cunningham [PF-SF], Patrick Mills [PG] and Jeff Pendergraph [PF].

If Kevin Pritchard does things things and then simply waits on the eventual return of Greg Oden … what he’ll have on his hands, 2 seasons from now, is a fully grown team that is ready, willing and able to challenge the Lakers, as the No. 1 outfit in the West, just as Kobe Bryant’s “development arc” is finally beginning to flow downwards its end-point.

On the other hand …

If Kevin Pritchard does not understand these things about the state of his own team, then, what he’ll do instead is “continue to try and rush” the Blazers through this key stage of their “upward arc” … which involves “learning how to lose before learning how to win”, just like Jordan’ Bulls and Zeke’s Pistons and Hakeem’s Rockets and Robinson’s [and Duncan’s] Spurs and Shaq/Kobe’s Lakers each went through before emerging as multiple-time league champions … then what he’ll do is make the WRONG MOVE at the WRONG TIME and end up blowing this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity which has come his way in Portland, i.e. to construct one of the NBA’s all-time great franchises with the likes of [youngsters] Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, Jerryd Bayless, Dante Cunningham, Patrick Mills, Jeff Prendergraph and [a healthy] GREG ODEN, plus [oldsters] Joel Przybilla [C], Steve Blake [PG] and Juwan Howard [PF].

The ball is in Kevin Pritchard’s court.

For the Blazers’ sake, it’s important that he doesn’t drop it.

PS. FWIW … Please know that ”curses” do not exist in pro sports. Poor decision-making skills - e.g. bringing injured players back too soon, acquiring ill-fitting players, trying to speed up the development process, etc. - on the other hand, can be found in abundance.

Related:

Latest injury will derail Oden for good

Where to now for Portland?

Blazers confirm Oden’s season is over

Blazers take another small step forward

Unfortunately, it’s articles and season forecasts like this …

No time to waste? Fast-forward through the 2009-2010 season
Surprise Team

They stand a far better chance of holding a UN summit than the Larry O’Brien trophy. But the Raptors, who speak more languages than Berlitz, will throw a memorable season-long going-away party for Chris Bosh. Six new players will figure into the rotation, which raises the possibility of a chaotic first few months. But everyone on the roster has a specific role. Ballhandling by Jose Calderon. Outside shooting by Andrea Bargnani. Rebounding by Reggie Evans. Toughness by Jarret Jack. Scoring off the dribble by Hedo Turkoglu. Young bounce by DeMar DeRozan. Defense by … um, oh well. You won’t fall in love with any one player, but you’ll fall in like with several. Plus, Bosh is playing for money. They’ll finish top-6 in the East, make the playoffs, pull a first-round surprise and then reach for a hanky when Bosh goes off to … drum roll … Miami.

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that consistently get it wrong/backwards, when it comes to, “How to properly evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of a NBA team,” considering the three main phases of the game: 1. Defense, 2. Rebounding, and 3. Offense.

Instead of including these five [5] simple words in the middle of this paragraph … regarding the Raptors’ collective inability to get stops at crucial times in games played this season, against quality opponents … and surrounding them with 140+ words about the:

- International flavour of the roster
- roster make-over this summer [with 9 new faces on-board]
- roles filled by only 6 players [in a game that needs, at least, 8-9]
- team’s offensive capabilities, i.e. ballhandling, shooting and scoring
- team’s infusion of toughness
- expectation to qualify for the playoffs and win a 1st Round series
- the possible departure of the team’s lone All-Star player

what Shaun Powell should have done is LEAD with it … since Defense and Rebounding are so much more important to a NBA team’s actual success or failure [as opposed to Offense, rumours and/or W-L predictions].

The teams that finish toward the top of the standings in this league, year-after-year, are the ones which perform the best in these two specific areas of the game, irrespective of the particular tools used to measure them, e.g. Points Differential, Points Allowed, Defensive Efficiency Ratings, Rebounding Differential, Rebounding Percentages and Ratings [etc.].

When any so-called “NBA analyst” uses a 30:1, like this, in her/his description of the prospects for a certain team [between the words devouted to "Offense and Others Things" vs "Defense and Rebounding"] what s/he’s really showing you is that s/he does NOT understand how the game works at this level of competition. 

The only people the Raptors are going to surprise this season are those who have yet to read the work of individuals like David Berri, John Hollinger, Brad Doolittle & Kevin Pelton, Wayne Winston … and yours truly.

… it’s one of this corner’s all-time favourite pieces of music:

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and a source of real inspiration in connection with the view here towards today’s article [PG warning for language] from Matt Moore, on the role of “advanced stats” in the modern game of hoops vs good ole fashion Basketball Acumen.

When this corner of the blogosphere sees an article like this one on-line, from a well-respected NBA observer, like John Hollinger, it makes yours truly go … Hmmm?

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Which Lottery Teams have a shot at earning a spot in the playoffs next season?
5. Toronto: The reason I think Toronto can improve is pretty simple — I just don’t understand how they’re this bad.

On paper, a team with Chris Bosh, Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani and Shawn Marion should be monstrously efficient, even with the wing players contributing comparatively little. And at the defensive end, the Raps will almost certainly be better if they’re contending for something, as they appeared to give up on this season once they fell out of the race.

As with the other teams listed above, they’ll be getting a high draft pick, and Toronto also has some cap space at its disposal, depending on how it decides to proceed with Marion.

I don’t know if that’s enough to get this team back to the postseason — but regardless, there’s no reason they should be this far out of the race.

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Is this an accurate representation of the current situation, in the NBA, pertaining to the Raptors?

Well …

There will be 14 teams miss the playoffs this season.

If these 2 simple assumptions are made [to start things off]:

1. Chicago will get the #8 spot in the Eastern Conference.
2. Dallas will get the #8 spot in the Western Conference.

This, then, leaves the following 14 teams on the outside looking in this post-season:

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Charlotte
Indiana
Milwaukee
New Jersey
New York
Toronto
Washington

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Golden State
LA Clippers
Memphis
Minnesota
Oklahoma City
Phoenix 
Sacramento

Now … if this 3rd assumption is then made:

3. Memphis will be the 2nd “least likely” team to reach the playoffs next season.

and, then, this 4th assumption is made:

4. Sacramento will be the 1st “least likely” team to reach the playoffs next season;

… logically, this would then have to mean that John Hollinger thinks the Toronto Raptors [#5 on the list in this article: Calderon, Parker, Marion, Bosh & Bargnani] will have a better chance of returning to the playoffs next season than each of the:

#6 Phoenix Suns … Nash, Stoudemire, Hill, Barbosa, Richardson & O’Neal
#7 Golden State Warriors … Ellis, Crawford, Maggette, Jackson & Biedrins
#8 Milwaukee Bucks … Sessions, Jefferson, Villanueva, LRMAM & Bogut 
#9 New Jersey Nets … Harris, Carter, Simmons, Jianlian & Lopez
#10 New York Knicks … Duhon, Hughes, Chandler, Harrington & Lee
#11 Charlotte Bobcats … Augustin, Bell, Wallace, Diaw & Okafor
#12 Indiana Pacers … Ford, Granger, Dunleavy, Murphy & Hibbert

… in addition to the lowly #13 Memphis Grizzlies and the #14 Sacramento Kings. 

While this is certainly an interesting position to take …

Is it completely accurate to suggest that John Hollinger really thinks the Raptors will have a better chance to make the playoffs next season, in comparison with each of those teams listed above from #6-12?

In all likelihood …

No, it is not.

Here’s what this corner suggests you do to find out the answer to that specific question:

Send John Hollinger an email in which you ask,

“If he truly believes that the Toronto Raptors will have a better chance of making the NBA Playoffs next season than each of the [i] Suns, [ii] Warriors, [iii] Bucks, [iv] Nets, [v] Knicks, [vi] Bobcats, and [vii] Pacers?”

Send John Hollinger a Question via Email

If you do … it says here & now that the answer which you will get back in return says,

“No, I do not think the Raptors have the 5th best chance of the 14 teams that missed the playoffs this season of making it back to the playoffs next year.”

How could this possibly be, you ask?

It says here that John’s article does not actually consider the plight of Toronto in comparison with Chicago, Milwaukee, New Jersey, New York, Charlotte, Indiana, Phoenix and Golden State. 

What it does is compare the chances of:

Washington/#1, Oklahoma City/#2, LA Clippers/#3, Minnesota/#4, Toronto/#5, Memphis/#6 and Sacramento/#7

[the teams that are definitely going to miss the playoffs this season in John's mind]

against one another, in terms of their likelihood to make the playoffs next season after missing out this year … that’s all.

Although yours truly could always turn out to be completely wrong about the proper way to interpret John Hollinger’s work.

What to make of the Raptors’ decision yesterday to relieve Sam Mitchell of his coaching duties?

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Well …

First.

This whole business that …

Sam Mitchell was somehow never Bryan Colangelo’s CHOICE to run the Raptors’ team …

* Smitch is Out, Bring Back the Cursing

… is completely false.

The simple FACTS are these:

1. Sam Mitchell was the Raptors’ head coach when Bryan Colangelo was hired as the Team’s GM [Feb 2006].
2. At the conclusion of the 2006-2007 season Sam Mitchell was voted the NBA COTY Award.
3. During the summer of 2007, Bryan Colangelo CHOSE to re-sign Sam Mitchell [to a multi-year contract worth millions of dollars] as HIS coach for the Toronto Raptors.
4. Approximately 18 months later, on Wednesday, Dec 03 2008, Bryan Colangelo relieved Sam Mitchell of his coaching duties with the Raptors.

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Second.

A list of sights and sounds observed, thus far, by yours truly, regarding the explanation of events provided by Bryan Colangelo:

Part A - From the individual Conference Calls of Bryan Colangelo and Jay Triano with the Toronto media on Wednesday afternoon

* Sam Mitchell was a good coach for the Raptors during his 5 seasons with the Raptors.
* Sam Mitchell is a highly intelligent basketball person, who understands the ins and the outs of the NBA game and was well-paid to coach the Toronto Raptors.
* There comes a time when a change is needed in the lead voice within a NBA team’s locker room.
* Sam Mitchell has always had a good relationship with the players he’s coached, who have always seemed to play hard for him, save for specific periods, so far, this season.
* The feeling still exists within the Raptors’ basketball brain-trust that this collection of 13 players is the “most talented” team put together yet by Bryan Colangelo.
* There’s an expectation that this team, as is, is under-performing.
* There’s an awareness that this team, as is, has a flawed roster.
* There’s a belief that this team, as is, has not been playing its best players enough.
* There’s a belief that certain players were not being put in specific situations offensively to maximize their abilities to help this team perform at a level which is consistent with its perceived talent-base.
* There’s a strong belief in the ability of Jose Calderon, as the PG for this team.
* There’s a belief that Jermaine O’Neal has shown, in a period of 5 or 6 games, so far this season, that he has what the Raptors’ basketball brain-trust was looking for when they traded for him this summer, i.e. 16 pts, 9-10 rebounds and 1-2 blocked shots per game.
* There’s a belief that this team should be “running” in offensive transition [and scoring] more consistently than it has been, to this point, this season.
* There’s a belief that the players on this team have a strong belief in one another.
* Jay Triano is the new coach for the Raptors, at least, until the end of the current season, at which time he will have an opportunity to be named the permanent head coach, along with any other candidates who might be available at that time.

Part B - From the Raptors’ Official Website

* The events of Wednesday do not coincide yet with the specifics of what this observer saw and listened to in the post-game interviews from Tuesday’s debacle vs the Nuggets:

I. re: Sam Mitchell II. re: Jermaine O’Neal III. re: Jose Calderon and IV. re: Bosh

“Cause, as you know, I played in the League. Mike Evans played in the League. Alex English played in the League. You know, at the end of the day, coach’s coach, but the players go play. You’ve got to out and compete every second you’re on the court.”
- Sam Mitchell [former Head Coach, Toronto Raptors]

… which is most intriguing.

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Third.

John Hollinger’s take on the situation … which has considerable merit.

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Fourth.

The exact timing of this decision yesterday [early Wednesday afternoon] … of all days, when there was a “players only” meeting scheduled for the morning, in place of a regular practice session between games, that followed the post-game “players only” meeting  … is a key to understanding, in part, some of what is still insidiously wrong/corrupt with MLSE, and the way in which this organization chooses to conduct its pro sports related business.

Trust that this corner will be seeing and listening intently over the next little while to the words and the quotes which come directly from the different parties involved in this decision, made abruptly yesterday … to decipher accurately what it means for this franchise, short and long term, going forward from here.

—–

To wit:

Analysis: Mitchell firing not a surprise
“This team’s a lot better than an 8-9 record,” Colangelo said during a late afternoon teleconference. “Despite the criticism of this roster, this is a roster that was put together on a consensus basis…you might look back at last season, and the games, a series of games, where we underachieved. Expectations were high.”

—–

* Did that 2nd “players only” meeting happen Wednesday morning?
* Did it happen prior to this decision being made?
* Or, did that 2nd meeting not take place at all?
* If it did … Who exactly was running this team, at that moment, when Sam Mitchell was relieved of his coaching duties with the Raptors, from amongst this specific group of players?
* And, if it did … To whom is that person[s] reporting?
* What was really accomplished by making this move yesterday?

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When dealing with an entity like MLSE, and a most intelligent person, like Bryan Colangelo, know that it’s an elaborate Game of Chess … and, Every Move Must Have A Purpose.

Part of the fun, therein, lies … with trying to figure out what that purpose actually is.

Despite one or two or twelve or more points of disagreement … this

Summer Transactions: Let’s Review

is … by a wide margin … the best and most comprehensive recap of all that’s gone on, thus far, this off-season, re: shifting player rosters in the NBA.

Specific moves which this corner has liked?

* Atlanta retaining Josh Smith
* Atlanta adding Maurice Evans
* Atlanta adding Randolph Morris

* Boston retaining Tony Allen
* Boston retaining Eddie House
* Boston adding Patrick O’Bryant
* Boston adding Darius Miles

* Charlotte retaining Emeka Okafor
* Charlotte adding Shannon Brown
* Charlotte retaining Ryan Hollins

* Chicago retaining Luol Deng

* Dallas adding Desagana Diop

* G-State adding Ronny Turiaf

* Houston adding Brent Barry

* LA Clippers trading for Steve Novak
* LA Clippers trading for Marcus Camby
* LA Clippers trading for Jason Hart

* LA Lakers retaining Sasha Vujacic
* LA Lakers adding Sun Yue
* LA Lakers adding Josh Powell

* Milwaukee trading for Richard Jefferson

* Minnesota retaining Craig Smith
* Minnesota trading for Rodney Carney

* New Jersey adding Eduardo Najera
* New Jersey adding Jarvis Hayes
* New Jersey adding Keyon Dooling (who isn’t as good as A-Johnson but, at this stage, is better than D-Armstrong)

* New Orleans adding James Posey
* New Orleans adding Devin Brown (who’s primarily a back-up PG not a Wing)

* Oklahoma adding Desmond Mason
* Oklahoma adding Joe Smith

* Orlando adding Anthony Johnson
* Orlando adding Mickael Pietrus as a defensive-minded/rebounding Small Forward (which is his natural/best position in the NBA and in sharp contrast to how he was mis-used by G-State)
* Orlando retaining Adonal Foyle

* Philadelphia retaining Andre Iguodala
* Philadelphia retaining Louis Williams
* Philadelphia adding Royal Ivey
* Philadelphia adding Kareem Rush
* Philadelphia adding Theo Ratliff
* Philadelphia adding Donyell Marshall

* Phoenix adding Matt Barnes

* San Antonio adding Roger Mason, Jr.
* San Antonio retaining Michael Finley

* Toronto retaining Jose Calderon

* Utah retaining CJ Miles

* Washington retaining Antawn Jamison
* Washington retaining Gilbert Arenas

The rest?

Time will tell how they pan out in the not-too-distant future.

… were just uttered, a few moments ago, live on-air, during this evening’s TV broadcast of Toronto’s game (at home) vs Indiana … in the aftermath of Chris Bosh being substituted out (in favour of Jason Kapono) at the 02:23 mark of the 1st Quarter (TOR 17, Ind 26), with what looked to be an injury to his right knee:

2nd Quarter
08:47 … Chuck Swirsky (Toronto’s Play-By-Play Announcer, reading an official report passed along from the team’s locker-room): Chris … Bosh … with … a … sore … right … knee … will … NOT … be … back. (TOR 29, Ind 43)

Yes, it’s still early and, hopefully, this is simply a ‘cautionary’ move by the Raptors’ athletic training staff …

but, on the same day that John Hollinger (Espn.com) annoints the Raptors as one of the dark-horse teams (from the Eastern Conference) to make it to the NBA Finals this spring … this news bulletin strikes with ‘Lethal Force’ to Toronto’s playoffs aspirations this season.

If Chris Bosh is forced to miss any significant number of games for the Raptors this season, from this point forward, this team:

i) Will not be able to secure the #4 spot in the Eastern Conference Standings;

and, without home-court advantage in the 1st Round of the Playoffs

ii) Will not be able to advance to (at least) the Conference Semi-finals this year.

The next 24-48 hours … awaiting formal diagnosis of Bosh’s injury, will hold the key to the Raptors’ long term prognosis as an elite level team in the NBA. 

Everyone who’s a fan of CB4, specifically, and the Raptors’, in general, should be holding their collective breath until then.