khandor’s sports blog

Toronto chose Jonas Valanciunas with the No. 5 Selection in the 2011 NBA Draft.

Jonas plays the Center position and is currently listed as:

- 6-11
- 240
- 19 years of age.

Other KNOWN FACTS concerning Jonas Valanciunas, include the following:

Strengths

i. He is a highly efficient scorer within close proximity of the basket [i.e. Euroleague/2010-2011: 70.0 FG%; 91.7 FT%; 0-0/3FG; 7.6 Pts/14.9 MP];

ii. Offensively, he has been used primarily in Pick and Roll situations;

iii. Rebounding is one of his strengths [i.e. Euroleague/2010-2011: 5.4 Rebs/14.9 MP];

iv. Shot blocking is one of his strengths [i.e. Euroleague/2010-2011: 0.6 BS/14.9 MP];

v. He plays the game with a good-to-high level of intensity;

vi. He is a relatively “good” athlete for a Center;

vii. He has a relatively “good” frame which should be able to carry additional weight, as he continues to mature physically;

viii. He was selected as the MVP for the European U 18 Men’s Championships last year [i.e. with 31 Pts and 18 Rebs in the Gold Medal game];

ix. He is under contract to his European club team for the 2011-2012 season and will only be eligible to join the Raptors for the 2012-2013 campaign, if there is a NBA season that year;

x. He is NOT Andrea Bargnani [C].

Weaknesses

i. He is a relatively poor passer who does not yet display the ability to create easy baskets for his teammates [i.e. Euroleague/2010-2011: 0.2/Ast; 1.4/TO];

ii. He is NOT Brandon Knight [PG] or Jan Vesely [SF/PF], each of whom was also still available when the Raptors made the No. 5 Selection … and a player with the capacity to eventually become a “star” in the NBA – according to yours truly, based upon “positional upside” [i.e. relative skill-set and athleticism at the position played] – with Derrick Williams [SF] and Kyrie Irving [PG] no longer available; and,

iii. He is NOT Tobias Harris [SF/PG] or Davis Bertans [SF], or [even] Josh Selby [PG], each of whom was still available when the Raptors made the No. 5 Selection … and a player with the capacity to eventually become a “star” in the NBA, if the Raptors would have decided to “trade down”, in an effort to acquire more than only 1 future rotation player from this year’s Draft.

By making this specific selection, the Raptors:

i. Added a very solid prospect … for the 2012-2013 season … with the ability to become a 10+ year, starting Center in the NBA;

ii. Increased their likelihood of being in the 2012-2013 NBA Draft Lottery;

iii. Failed to add a, possible, future “star” player to their current roster, in the form of Brandon Knight, or Jan Vesely, or Tobias Harris, or Davis Bertans [or, even, Josh Selby]; and,

iv. Re-confirmed their commitment to their players from last season, as their core group moving forward, including some combination of: A) Youngsters – DeMar DeRozan [OG/SF], Jerryd Bayless [PG/OG], Sonny Weems [OG/SF], James Johnson [SF/PF], Julian Wright [SF/PG], Ed Davis [PF], Amir Johnson [PF], Joey Dorsey [PF], Solomon Alabi [C] and Alexis Ajinca [C]; B) Young Vets – Andrea Bargnani [PF/C] and Linas Kleiza [SF/PF]; and, C) Veterans – Jose Calderon [PG], Leandro Barbosa [OG/PG] and Reggie Evans [PF].

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

Although Jonas Valanciunas [C] is almost certain to become a “good” Center in the NBA, sometime down-the-road … ala Pervis Ellison, Joel Przybilla, or Zydrunas Ilgauskas, etc. … in terms of being able to compete for, and eventually win, a League Championship … it is most unfortunate that the Raptors, once again, wasted another golden opportunity to add a future “star” player – i.e. with ahigh degree of Positional Skill, Athleticism, and Leadership – to their existing roster and, instead, were trumped by the likes of RC Buford, Joe Dumars, Pat Riley, John Hammond, Ed Stefanski and Daryl Morey.

Yours truly has a considerable amount of R.E.S.P.E.C.T. for a talented “writer”, like Kelly Dwyer, who happens to use the wacky world of the NBA as on outlet for his artistic skill-set.

Where the problem arises, however, is when certain writers, stats gurus and other observers attempt to provide their “analysis” of how a specific basketball team actually functions, as a collective unit, in a positive, neutral, or negative way … and, unfortunately, completely miss the proverbial boat.

To wit:

Fact 1

This is what Brandon Jennings was quoted as saying, about the state of the Bucks franchise, last Friday:

BUCKS BEAT: Many officials concerned about their status

“Some guys have the mind-set of winning on the team and some guys just don’t. We traded a lot of pieces I feel like we should have kept, but that’s part of the business and you’ve got to roll with it.’‘

Fact 2

This is part of what Kelly Dwyer wrote in his article about Brandon Jennings & Co.:

Brandon Jennings is not happy with his new teammates

“Yeah, man. You can’t mess with success. There was a reason they feared the deer, and the reason was … Luke Ridnour?

Because last year’s roster and rotation is really only missing Ridnour, and 15-minutes-per-game big man Kurt Thomas.”

Fact 3

This is what Milwaukee’s line-up looked like last year:

i. In the immediate aftermath of the ‘trade deadline’, when

they beat the Miami Heat;

ii. At the end of the regular season schedule last year, when they beat the Boston Celtics, on the final day of the season;

iii. When they were eliminated from the Eastern Conference

Playoffs, in Game 7 of the 1st Round, by the Atlanta Hawks.

Fact 4

Milwaukee’s roster last season, after the trade deadline, included the following players:

Brandon Jennings, John Salmons, Carlos Delfino, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Andrew Bogut, Ersan Ilyasova, Luke Ridnour, Royal Ivey, Charlie Bell, Jerry Stackhouse, Darnell Jackson, Francisco Elson, Kurt Thomas, Dan Gadzuric and Primoz Brezec 

each of whom was instrumental to the Bucks’ success at one point or another. 

Fact 5

This is what the Bucks’ line-up looked like last night, when they lost at Orlando [72-78] … which means that a current list of the additions and subtractions from their roster last season actually looks like this:

ADDITIONS
1 Earl Boykins [best described as a veteran scorer]
2 Corey Maggette [best described as a veteran scorer]
3 Drew Gooden
4 Keyon Dooling
5 Larry Sanders
6 Chris Douglas-Roberts
7 Michael Redd

[plus, Jon Brockman who was out of the line-up yesterday]

SUBTRACTIONS

1 Luke Ridnour [best described as a non selfish veteran]
2 Charlie Bell [best described as a non selfish veteran]
3 Dan Gadzuric [best described as a non selfish veteran]
4 Francisco Elso [best described a non selfish veteran]
5 Royal Ivey [best described as a non selfish youngster]
6 Darnell Jackson [best described as a non selfish youngster]
7 Primoz Brezec
8 Jerry Stackhouse

If you consider the respective skill-sets and other important personal attributes of the players who the Bucks have added to this year’s team … based on MORE THAN just their individual “production numbers” … compared to the COHESIVE collection of players they had last year … especially, amongst their set of Reserves [i.e. players No. 9-15] … it should be relatively easy to see the CORRECTNESS of what Brandon Jennings was talking about, when he was quoted on the current situation in Milwaukee.

From a ‘basketball analysis’ perspective …

It is a basic – but crucial – error in basketball judgment to think that the contributions of the non-rotational players on a given roster are NOT absolutely fundamental to the success or failure of a team in the NBA.

The word “benchmark” has the following definition:

bench·mark (bnchmärk)

As was mentioned yesterday, last night’s contest between Toronto and Milwaukee should have been viewed by each team as a pivotal game, and an early season barometer for where their respective franchise stands in relation to the other middle-of-the-pack squads in the Eastern Conference.

Toronto Raptors 95
MILWAUKEE BUCKS 117
Complete Game Summary

By no means should the Bucks be viewed as an ideal, or even an up-and-coming, franchise in the NBA, at this point in time. Milwaukee has:

- a talented, young Starting-calibre PG
- a defensively stout young Starting-calibre SF-PF 
- an all-around solid Starting-calibre C

who they can build around moving forward …

- a solid, experienced, head coach

who they can build with moving forward … and,

- a dead-weight former “franchise player”

who is no longer a major part of their team with a fairly hefty contract that is due to expire in just 2 years

- a slew of good-but-still-far-from-being-very-good back-up players on their roster

who they can use to fill in the gaps, while hoping to field a highly competitive team, on an annual basis …

and, then, prescious little more than that.

Yet, last night, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, after losing 8 of their previous 9 games … they were still able to dismantle the Raptors on the strength of [a] Brandon Jennings first-half scoring exploits, [b] solid team defense, and [c] individual offensive contributions from a host of different back-up players [e.g. Ersan Ilyasova , 17 pts; Roko Ukic, 17 pts; Carlos Delfino, 14 pts; Luke Ridnour, 15 pts].

Raptors fans who thought that their team’s recent 3-game winning streak was an authentic indication of a “righted ship”, heading toward the upper-middle region of the conference standings, sometime soon, were simply being delusional, once again. 

The road victory over Washington [7-12/.368, 10th/EC] was an overtime decision that could have gone either way at the end of regulation and at the final buzzer when Gilbert Arenas inexplicably missed an open lay-up.

The road victory over Chicago [7-13/.350, 11th/EC] was a relatively meaningless encounter against an opponent that is currently in free-fall … coping with [I] debilitating injuries to 2 key rotation players, both of whom are solid defender/rebounders, at their respective positions, and [II] the loss of their leading scorer from last season [i.e. Ben Gordon, who was not retained, as an UFA, this past summer].

The home victory over Minnesota [3-19/.136; 15th/WC] was secured in the final 90 seconds, when a 3PT shot from Antoine Wright [3FG% = 30.2] found the bottom of the net to push the Raptors’ precarious lead from 2 to 5 points.

On the other hand, last night’s game against the Bucks was a different beast entirely.

The Bucks were looking ahead at their next 3 opponents … i.e. vs the Blazers, vs the Lakers and @ the Cavaliers … and not liking what they saw, at all.

The Bucks are a solid middle-of-the-pack team this season:

[Ratings as of Mon Dec 05, 2009]

In last night’s game, key [revealing?] stats included:

When an opponent converts 3.5% more of its Total Shot Value, creates 5 more Possessions and a Points per Possession differential of 0.168, it indicates that your team was out-classed in a number of different ways.  

1/4 of the way through the regular season schedule, what should now be a legit concern for the Raptors organization, and its fanbase, is what you see when you look at the following two charts; appraising [i] where these two teams were last night:

and, then, [ii] where it looks as though they might be headed in the immediate future:

When the 2009-2010 off-season arrives and Chris Bosh sits down to evaluate where his chances might be the best to effectively challenge for a future NBA championship, realistically, do you think that he is going to perceive the Toronto Raptors as the No. 1 place for him to accomplish this goal in the no-too-distant future?

A team which might even be considered as beneath the decidedly “average” Milwaukee Bucks on the authentic depth chart in the East this season?

The Raptors next 4 games are:

Fri Dec 11 vs Atlanta [QR = 30; QIR = 9]
Sun Dec 13 vs Houston [QR = 42; QIR = T-13]
Tue Dec 15 @ MIAMI [QR = 42; QIR = T-13]
Wed Dec 16 @ ORLANDO [QR = 17; QIR = 2]

Legend: QR – Quality Rating [PDR/Points Differential Rank + PAR/Points Allowed Rank + RDR/Rebounding Differential Rank]; QIR – Quality Index Ranking [#1-30]; as of Sun Dec 06.

When assessing the relative strength of these 4 opponents, it’s imperative that the Raptors [10-14] get their act together quickly, substantially improve their Team Defense, and win their up-coming 2 home games … or, face the very real possibility of amassing another extended losing streak [i.e. a 5-gamer this time] and an inauspicious W-L Record [10-18?].

What Toronto has done so far this season is no way to go about convincing Chris Bosh that he should actually re-sign with the Raptors, as one of the premier unrestricted free agents in 2010.

To paraphrase something once said by Yogi Berra, noted philosopher :

“Sometimes, it really does get late early out there … in the process of pursuing one’s own UFA.”

The Raptors would do well to not forget that Life Truism this season. 

Courtesy of Matt Moore …

Offseason Lemon Face/Lion Face: Raptors/Bucks
re: Toronto
You have to wonder what Colangelo has targeted as the ceiling for this team. He can’t realistically think this team is going to win a championship. It needs to make the playoffs, that much is clear from salary alone. With Orlando, Cleveland, and Boston at the apex, does he believe they can get the 4 seed? Hope to make a push in the semis, and possibly get lucky with playing a banged up team that sparks them to the Finals (the Orlando plan)? Or is the goal just to contend, to be relevant, to be fun? Colangelo was part of something special in Phoenix by thinking outside the box and creating something new. Maybe this multi-positional rubix cube he’s created is his next masterpiece that changes things without ever bearing fruit.

re: Milwaukee
The main reason they get a Lemon Face is that they seem to be going in two directions. Jennings is the future, but Bogut is the franchise, but Redd is the leader, but we’re building for the future, but Luke Ridnour has a chokehold on our point guard spot but Roko Ukic could be great with some time but we want to win now but we want to win a championship but we’re also filling in holes like with Warrick.

A wonderful article by Gary D’Amato of the Journal Sentinel which chronicles the journey of Milwaukee’s Luc Richard Mbah A Moute [1st-year forward], courtesy of Dave at nbaroundtable.com.

———————————

Living a dream
Nobody looked at Luc Richard Mbah a Moute when he was 15 years old and predicted basketball greatness.

Born and raised in Yaounde, the capital city of the Republic of Cameroon in west-central Africa, Mbah a Moute wasn’t some precocious phenom discovered in middle school, coddled in high school and polished in summer camps. He didn’t tour with an AAU team or make Sports Illustrated’s “Faces in the Crowd.”

Mbah a Moute’s game was soccer and he was pretty good, tall and gangly but fast and athletic. When Cameroon won the gold medal at the 2000 Olympic Games, he stayed up all night, celebrating in the streets with his friends.

If he wasn’t playing soccer, he was helping plant corn or cassava on his grandparents’ farm in Bia Messe, a village on the outskirts of Yaounde, or hunting rabbits or swimming in the river.

To go from there – halfway around the world, living in a country where 48% of the population is below the poverty threshold and 30% are unemployed – to here – 22-year-old rookie starter for the Milwaukee Bucks, making more money in one year than his childhood friends will make in their lifetimes – well, it boggles the mind.

“It’s a dream every day I wake up,” Mbah a Moute says. “For me to come all the way from where I came to be here, it’s unbelievable. There’s a lot of people who never would have imagined this could happen. Even my friends back home, when I talk to them, they’re like, ‘I can’t believe it.’

———————————

The Prince is quickly becoming one of this corner’s favourite young NBA players, after culminating a fine career at UCLA.

When there are 8 teams in the Eastern Conference separated in the standings by only 4.5 games, between the 7th and 14th positions, at the half-way point of the regular season schedule, it speaks to the parity which exists today in the NBA.

The fact is …

There is very little tangible separation between any of these teams, whether they fall into the Middle-of-the-Pack or the Low End categories.

Injuries, coaching decisions and the different managerial moves which each team makes in-season will determine [i] which ones qualify for the playoffs this spring and/or [ii] become a likely candidate for substantial improvement heading towards next season and beyond.