At Denver last season [Dec 03 2008] is where things turned ugly for the Raptors, when Sam Mitchell was fired following a lopsided loss. This season’s Nuggets should prove to be too much for the Dinos, as well, with several individual match-up advantages. Although not as deep as last season’s team, Denver should still be one of the better squads in the WC this year, if their key players can remain healthy.
Denver jumped over several teams in the Western Conference last season, adding Chauncey Billups to their line-up.
Their challenge this summer was to resign Chris Anderson and then keep the bulk of their team together … thereby, allowing this existing group of players to grow, as a unit … which they have now done for the most part.
* Remove the question mark beside Johan Petro’s name, then,
* Remove Linas Kleiza’s name altogether
what you should see is a depth chart which looks like this:
PG: Billups/#2, Carter/#7, Lawson/#11
OG: Smith/#4, Afflalo/#8, Carter
SF: Anthony/#1, Player #10? PF: Martin/#5, Balkman/#9, Allen/#13
C: Nene/#3, Anderson/#6, Petro/#12
and still leaves room for one more player to be signed, before the season starts, as a competent back-up for their “superstar” [i.e. Melo], at the SF position.
If Mark Warkentien, Rex Chapman & Co. are able to accomplish this last task, there is now every reason to believe that the Nuggets will remain one of the elite teams in the Western Conference this season.
Marcin Gortat, Orlando’s Back-up Center extraordinaire, could well be heading toward the Lone Star state, if the Magic decline the opportunity to match the contract he is offered by the Dallas Mavericks.
Would this really be a bad thing, however, from Orlando’s perspective?
Especially, in light of their recent trade for Vincent Lamar Carter … and the courtship of the Turkish Michael Jordan which is taking place right now across the breadth of the NBA?
Hmmm …
Yours truly thinks, perhaps, not.
Marcin Gortat is about to sign a major new contract [say, in excess of $5.0 M/yr] to become a key player for a new team that expects him to perform at a certain level of production each and every night in the NBA, against the best players in the world … coming off a season during which he performed like this: 2008-2009 Season Statistics.
Now, this corner happens to like Mr. Gortat’s individual game a great deal but a move like that would make zero sense, from Orlando’s POV if, instead, the reigning Eastern Conference Champs could secure the services of another highly cost effective replacement Back-up Center … at a substantially lower rung on the pay scale … who just happens to be available, right now, also as a Restricted Free Agent, for a team that will have significant difficulty in paying him more money than he received last season, as the #3 Center on their depth chart.
Which player might this be?
If the Magic decline to match the contract offered to Mr. Gortat by the Mavericks and, instead, offer a new contract of their own to a highly serviceable Back-up Center by the name of Johan Petro … what might it do for Orlando’s ability to:
1. Resign Hedo Turkoglu;
and, then,
2. Present their fans with the following roster:
STARTERS
Jameer Nelson
Vince Carter
Hedo Turkoglu
Rashard Lewis
Dwight Howard
KEY SUBS
Anthony Johnson
JJ Redick
Mickael Pietrus
Ryan Anderson
Johan Petro
in an effort to win next year’s NBA Championship.
While one man’s steak is most definitely another man’s hamburger …
It says in this corner that Johan Petro [at @ $3.0 M/yr] … from a dollar for dollar perspective … would actually be a better Back-up Center [to Dwight Howard] in Orlando this coming season than would Marcin Gortat [at something more than $5.0 M/yr].
There’s a tonne of information on-line right now but this one, courtesy of John Schuhmman, is as sound and concise as any:
Position-by-position: Top 5 free agents
As we’ve seen in the NBA Draft over the years, the best strategy is usually to take the best player available. You never know how draft picks will turn out, so selecting the guy closest to a sure thing, even if you’ve already got a similar player on your roster, is often the prudent way to go.
In free agency, though, teams pretty much know what kind of player they’re getting. Teams have seen what these guys can do and are able to better evaluate what they’re capable of and what they can bring to their team.
So the next few weeks will be about finding the right fit, both on the court and on the payroll.
———-
By position, the following players are under-rated [#, indicates where they should be ranked] in this year’s Free Agent class, according to yours truly:
POINT GUARDS
* Ramon Sessions [#1]
* Jarret jack [#2]
* CJ Watson [#6]
OFF GUARDS
* Anthony Parker [#1]
SMALL FORWARDS
* None
POWER FORWARDS
* Antonio McDyess [#3]
* Brandon Bass [#7]
* James Singleton [#9]
Current Odds To Win the Series
Denver Nuggets +231
LOS ANGELES LAKERS -251
2008-2009 NBA
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
INDIVIDUAL MATCH-UPS
1/LAL, 65-17
Advantage
2/DEN, 54-28
Fisher
Bryant
Ariza
Bynum
Gasol
Farmar
Vujacic
Walton
Odom
Powell
Brown
Mbenga
-
<-
->
-
<-
-
-
-
<-
-
-
-
Billups
Jones
Anthony
Martin
Nene
Carter
Smith
Kleiza
Anderson
Petro
Hart
Balkman
P Jackson
<-
G Karl
OVERALL:+4
-
OVERALL:+1
Styles of Play
PDR - 2
PAR - 4
RDR - 5
QR - 21
QIR – 6
<-
<<-
<<-
<<-
Styles of Play
PDR – 8
PAR - 18
RDR - 16
QR - 42
QIR – 13
Legend:
PDR – Points Differential Ranking; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking; QR – Quality Rating; QIR – Quality Index Ranking
Although Denver has played very well to this point in the Playoffs, they do not enjoy a host of different match-up advantages vs Los Angeles, like they did vs Dallas and New Orleans.
In particular, the specific spots where the Nuggets have possessed major advantages … i.e. at the PG [although that might be difficult for CP3 lovers to believe] and PF/C positions, plus in terms Quality Depth, overall … will not be the case in this series:
Point Guard
* Billups’ game is based on strength, not quickness. Whereas Aaron Brooks was too quick for Derek Fisher … physical strength & guile just happen to be two strengths of D-Fish, as well.
* Anthony Carter is a highly capable Back-up PG. The combination of Jordan Farmar & Shannon Brown is equally formidable.
Power Forward/Center
* Nene, Kenyon Martin, Chris Anderson & Johan Petro is a versatile and highly effective set of Bigs. So, too, however, is Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom & Josh Powell.
Quality Depth
* JR Smith, Anderson, Carter, Linas Kleiza, Petro, Jason Hart & Renaldo Balkman are a stout and highly serviceable Group of 7, coming off the bench. However, they are not a superior force, in comparison with the Lakers’ corresponding re-inforcements, i.e. Sasha Vujacic, Odom, Farmar, Luke Walton, Powell, Brown & DJ Mbenga.
———-
Please Note:
At the moment, the Lakers are +220 to Win the 2008-2009 NBA Title. For those so inclined, this is a VERY GOOD proposition.
So you’re scared and you’re thinking
That maybe we ain’t that young anymore
Show a little faith there’s magic in the night
You ain’t a beauty but hey you’re alright
Oh and that’s alright with me …
Going into tonight’s game, which of these two player rosters would you prefer, if you were a working GM in the NBA?
One is $12.7 million over the Salary Cap; the other is $1.1 million under the Cap.
One has an average age of 24.7; the other an average age of 26.6.
One has 2 No. 1 [overall] NBA Draft Picks on it; the other has 1.
Both are led by first-time, interim head coaches.
Objectively speaking, when you’re hard-pressed to distinguish between the authentic talent levels of two teams in the NBA with respective W-L records as far apart as these … i.e. Toronto is 10-15, .400; Oklahoma is 2-24, .077 … it does not portend well for the squad with the higher win percentage, if it’s also playing away from home.
As the first game in a 6-stop Western road trip, this is now a crucial get for the Raptors.
* Win tonight … and the up-coming match-ups against the Clippers, Kings and the Warriors will not look nearly so daunting.
* Lose tonight … and the Dinos will be staring straight into the abyss of a calamitous 10-game losing streak:
Sun Dec 14 vs New Orleans/15-7, .682 - LOSS Mon Dec 15 vs New Jersey/12-12, .500 - LOSS
Wed Dec 17 vs Dallas/14-10, .583 - LOSS Fr Dec 19 at Oklahoma City/2-24, 0.77 - ? Sat Dec 20 at San Antonio/15-10, .600 - ? [L] Mon Dec 22 at LA Clippers/7-18, .280 - ?
Fri Dec 26 at Sacramento/7-19, .269 - ? Sat Dec 27 at Portland/17-10, .630 - ? [L] Mon Dec 29 at Golden State/7-19, .269 - ? Wed Dec 31 vs Denver/17-8, .680 - ? [L]
from which they might not be able recover this season.
On the road, in the NBA, is where a team - especially one that’s struggling - finds out exactly what it’s made of … and, whether it should either:
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