khandor’s sports blog

While it might be true that Darko Milicic is properly described as being a great many different things … including, possibly, the biggest bust in the last 10 years of the NBA Draft … it should also be duly noted that he is clearly not one of these, as well:

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For lack of a few crucial stops, Wolves lose 13th straight

Though the Wolves have won only one game since the 7-foot Serbian arrived in mid-February, Rambis said he has seen flashes of a player so promising seven years ago, when he was drafted ahead of [Chris] Bosh, Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade.

“And I think he can be a lot better,” Rambis said. “As he gets in better shape and gets more comfortable and more confident, you’ll see him stretch his game.”

In fact, he’s already done that offensively. Milicic scored a season-high 16 points against the Lakers last Friday, and appeared to be more confident about taking good shots.

“The guys are learning how to use him,” Rambis said. “I’ve told him, whenever he’s comfortable, I’m OK with him shooting inside, outside, [from the] elbow, long distance. But he has to have the confidence to do that.”

For Milicic, who is still only 24 years old despite being a seven-year NBA veteran, it’s a matter of playing the way he was taught back in Serbia.

“I’m just trying to relax. I got used to playing this American way of running crazy, playing too fast. I’ve got to slow it down,” Milicic said. “When I came [to the U.S.], I stopped playing basketball the way I know how to play. Playing too fast, running like chickens without heads.”

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If he can successfully return to the roots of his “multi-headed” individual game … by learning how to slow down and play within the confines of the Triangle Offense, let’s say, with Ricky Rubio/PG, at the helm, beside Al Jefferson/PF, Kevin Love/PF, Corey Brewer/OG-SF and the T-wolves upcoming 2010 Lottery Selection …

Is there really any good reason to believe that Darko Milicic, at the still relatively tender age of 24, 

is somehow incapable of putting up “15 and 8″, on a game-to-game basis …

against the other “25 and under” starting calibre Centers, in the NBA today

EASTERN CONFERENCE		WESTERN CONFERENCE
ATLANTIC		NORTHWEST
Boston	Perkins, K [25]	Denver	Petro, J [24]
Toronto	Bargnani, A [24]	Utah	Fesenko, K [23]
New York	–	Oklahoma City	Ibaka, S [20]
Philadelphia	Speights, M [22]	Portland	Oden, G [21]
New Jersey	Lopez, B [21]	Minnesota	Milicic, D [24]
CENTRAL		PACIFIC
Cleveland	–	LA Lakers	Bynum, A [22]
Milwaukee	Bogut, A [25]	Phoenix	Lopez, R [21]
Chicago	Noah, J [25]	LA Clippers	Jordan, D [21]
Indiana	Hibbert, R [23]	Sacramento	Hawes, S [21]
Detroit	–	Golden State	Biedrins, A [23]
SOUTHEAST		SOUTHWEST
Orlando	Howard, D [24]	Dallas	–
Atlanta	Horford, A [24]	San Antonio	–
Miami	–	Memphis	Gasol, M [25]
Charlotte	–	Houston	–
Washington	Blatche, A [25]	New Orleans	–

… over the course of the next several seasons?

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In what group would you place Darko Milicic amongst the other "25 and under" starting calibre Centers in the NBA today?

• 1-5
• 6-10
• 11-15
• 16-21

View Results

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One of the things which yours truly specializes in doing is identifying “talent”, in advance of others.

Approximately 8 months ago, this is what was written in this space, concerning the best available free agents during the 2009 summer signing period:

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ROI - Reviewing and rating current NBA Free Agents

By position, the following players are under-rated [#, indicates where they should be ranked] in this year’s Free Agent class, according to yours truly:

CENTERS
* Johan Petro [#4]

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Then, 2 days ago, this is what was written by Chris Dempsey, about Johan Petro’s work, thus far, this season:

Petro rewarding Nuggets – and himself – with recent surge

When the Nuggets traded for Petro last season, it was solely as a guy to help the team get under the luxury tax threshold. And it worked. What they didn’t necessarily know at the time was they were getting a player that had potential to be a nice complimentary piece in the future.

That was until they got him on the Pepsi Center practice court.

“Almost immediately our coaching staff said ‘Hey this guy is an NBA player, give us time. He’ll be a player,’” Warkentien said. “This summer when we were looking at the bigs available at minimum (cost), this guy is a guy they asked for. Our guys asked for him and recruited him. He’s the guy they wanted all along. Johan has worked everyday and they have worked everyday to get this guy there. And for all of their efforts, that tree is bearing fruit.”

Petro nearly signed with the Hawks during the summer, but opted to sign a one-year deal with the Nuggets, which is paying him $884,881.

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Below is a comprehensive list of Big Men who were on the open market last summer:

Anderson Varejao, Lamar Odom, Charlie Villanueva, Rasheed Wallace, Zaza Pachulia, Leon Powe, Drew Gooden, Brandon Bass, Rasho Nesterovic, Joe Smith, Channing Frye, Fabricio Oberto, Chris Wilcox, Chris Andersen, Jason Collins, Brian Skinner, Ike Diogu, Johan Petro, Robert Swift, Adonal Foyle, Mikki Moore, Chris Mihm, Shelden Williams, Jake Voshkul, Maceo Baston, Stromile Swift, Melvin Ely, Sean May, Sean Marks, Malik Rose, Ryan Bowen, Paul Davis, Rob Kurz, Austin Croshere, Jamaal Magloire, Antoine Walker, Chris Richard, Michael Doleac, Jelani McCoy, Dwayne Jones, Cheikh Samb, Mouhamed Sene, Donyell Marshall, Theo Ratliff, Raef LaFrentz, Shavlik Randolph, Jarron Collins, Calvin Booth, Michael Ruffin, Mike Harris, Andre Brown, Chris Taft, Lance Allred, Cedric Simmons, and Lorenzon Wright

While other NBA observers [both astute and non-astute] might not have thought that Johan Petro would be capable of becoming a productive Big Man this season, if provided with additional playing time, it is gratifying to know that yours truly cannot rightly be counted as one of them.

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PS. Also of note is the following quote from the Nuggets’ GM:

“When someone tells you that coaching doesn’t matter in the NBA, think again and check the Johan Petro files.”

Taking this perspective one step further …

Should anyone ever try to tell you that “coaching doesn’t matter in the NBA,” it’s important to recognize the fact that this person simply lacks a thorough understanding of what the NBA game is really all about. 

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 11 – at Denver [Tue Nov 17]

At Denver last season [Dec 03 2008] is where things turned ugly for the Raptors, when Sam Mitchell was fired following a lopsided loss. This season’s Nuggets should prove to be too much for the Dinos, as well, with several individual match-up advantages. Although not as deep as last season’s team, Denver should still be one of the better squads in the WC this year, if their key players can remain healthy.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 4-7

Denver jumped over several teams in the Western Conference last season, adding Chauncey Billups to their line-up.

Their challenge this summer was to resign Chris Anderson and then keep the bulk of their team together … thereby, allowing this existing group of players to grow, as a unit … which they have now done for the most part.

i.e. Nuggets re-sign Johan Petro

When you take an Early look at NBA rosters: Western Conference, and:

* Remove the question mark beside Johan Petro’s name, then,
* Remove Linas Kleiza’s name altogether

what you should see is a depth chart which looks like this:

PG: Billups/#2, Carter/#7, Lawson/#11 
OG: Smith/#4, Afflalo/#8, Carter
SF: Anthony/#1, Player #10?
PF: Martin/#5, Balkman/#9, Allen/#13
C: Nene/#3, Anderson/#6, Petro/#12

and still leaves room for one more player to be signed, before the season starts, as a competent back-up for their “superstar” [i.e. Melo], at the SF position.

If Mark Warkentien, Rex Chapman & Co. are able to accomplish this last task, there is now every reason to believe that the Nuggets will remain one of the elite teams in the Western Conference this season.

According to a report published today …

Commited? Gortat to tour Mavs facility

Marcin Gortat, Orlando’s Back-up Center extraordinaire, could well be heading toward the Lone Star state, if the Magic decline the opportunity to match the contract he is offered by the Dallas Mavericks.

Would this really be a bad thing, however, from Orlando’s perspective?

Especially, in light of their recent trade for Vincent Lamar Carter … and the courtship of the Turkish Michael Jordan which is taking place right now across the breadth of the NBA?

Hmmm …

Yours truly thinks, perhaps, not.

Marcin Gortat is about to sign a major new contract [say, in excess of $5.0 M/yr] to become a key player for a new team that expects him to perform at a certain level of production each and every night in the NBA, against the best players in the world … coming off a season during which he performed like this: 2008-2009 Season Statistics. 

Now, this corner happens to like Mr. Gortat’s individual game a great deal but a move like that would make zero sense, from Orlando’s POV if, instead, the reigning Eastern Conference Champs could secure the services of another highly cost effective replacement Back-up Center … at a substantially lower rung on the pay scale … who just happens to be available, right now, also as a Restricted Free Agent, for a team that will have significant difficulty in paying him more money than he received last season, as the #3 Center on their depth chart.

Which player might this be?

If the Magic decline to match the contract offered to Mr. Gortat by the Mavericks and, instead, offer a new contract of their own to a highly serviceable Back-up Center by the name of Johan Petro … what might it do for Orlando’s ability to:

1. Resign Hedo Turkoglu;

and, then,

2. Present their fans with the following roster:

STARTERS
Jameer Nelson
Vince Carter
Hedo Turkoglu
Rashard Lewis
Dwight Howard

KEY SUBS
Anthony Johnson
JJ Redick
Mickael Pietrus
Ryan Anderson
Johan Petro

in an effort to win next year’s NBA Championship.

While one man’s steak is most definitely another man’s hamburger …

It says in this corner that Johan Petro [at @ $3.0 M/yr] … from a dollar for dollar perspective … would actually be a better Back-up Center [to Dwight Howard] in Orlando this coming season than would Marcin Gortat [at something more than $5.0 M/yr].

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There’s a tonne of information on-line right now but this one, courtesy of John Schuhmman, is as sound and concise as any:

Position-by-position: Top 5 free agents
As we’ve seen in the NBA Draft over the years, the best strategy is usually to take the best player available. You never know how draft picks will turn out, so selecting the guy closest to a sure thing, even if you’ve already got a similar player on your roster, is often the prudent way to go.

In free agency, though, teams pretty much know what kind of player they’re getting. Teams have seen what these guys can do and are able to better evaluate what they’re capable of and what they can bring to their team.

So the next few weeks will be about finding the right fit, both on the court and on the payroll.

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By position, the following players are under-rated [#, indicates where they should be ranked] in this year’s Free Agent class, according to yours truly:

POINT GUARDS
* Ramon Sessions [#1]
* Jarret jack [#2]
* CJ Watson [#6]

OFF GUARDS
* Anthony Parker [#1]

SMALL FORWARDS
* None

POWER FORWARDS
* Antonio McDyess [#3]
* Brandon Bass [#7]
* James Singleton [#9]

CENTERS
* Johan Petro [#4]

Current Odds To Win the Series
Denver Nuggets +231
LOS ANGELES LAKERS -251

Although Denver has played very well to this point in the Playoffs, they do not enjoy a host of different match-up advantages vs Los Angeles, like they did vs Dallas and New Orleans.

In particular, the specific spots where the Nuggets have possessed major advantages … i.e. at the PG [although that might be difficult for CP3 lovers to believe] and PF/C positions, plus in terms Quality Depth, overall … will not be the case in this series:

Point Guard

* Billups’ game is based on strength, not quickness. Whereas Aaron Brooks was too quick for Derek Fisher … physical strength & guile just happen to be two strengths of D-Fish, as well.

* Anthony Carter is a highly capable Back-up PG. The combination of Jordan Farmar & Shannon Brown is equally formidable.

Power Forward/Center

* Nene, Kenyon Martin, Chris Anderson & Johan Petro is a versatile and highly effective set of Bigs. So, too, however, is Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom & Josh Powell.  

Quality Depth

* JR Smith, Anderson, Carter, Linas Kleiza, Petro, Jason Hart & Renaldo Balkman are a stout and highly serviceable Group of 7, coming off the bench. However, they are not a superior force, in comparison with the Lakers’ corresponding re-inforcements, i.e. Sasha Vujacic, Odom, Farmar, Luke Walton, Powell, Brown & DJ Mbenga.  

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Please Note:
At the moment, the Lakers are +220 to Win the 2008-2009 NBA Title. For those so inclined, this is a VERY GOOD proposition.

Raptors fans …

So you’re scared and you’re thinking
That maybe we ain’t that young anymore
Show a little faith there’s magic in the night
You ain’t a beauty but hey you’re alright
Oh and that’s alright with me …

Going into tonight’s game, which of these two player rosters would you prefer, if you were a working GM in the NBA?

Oklahoma Thunder Active Roster
No.	Player	Pos	Ht	Wt	DOB	Exp	College
4	Collison, Nick	FC	6-9	255	10/26/80	5	Kansas
35	Durant, Kevin	GF	6-9	215	9/29/88	1	Texas
22	Green, Jeff	F	6-9	235	8/8/86	1	Georgetown
51	Hill, Steven	FC	7-0	245	11/14/85	R	Arkansas
34	Mason, Desmond	GF	6-5	222	10/11/77	8	Oklahoma State
27	Petro, Johan	C	7-0	247	1/27/86	3	None
18	Sene, Mouhamed	C	6-11	230	5/12/86	2	None
7	Smith, Joe	PF	6-10	225	7/26/75	13	Maryland
31	Swift, Robert	C	7-1	270	12/3/85	4	None
25	Watson, Earl	PG	6-1	185	6/12/79	7	UCLA
5	Weaver, Kyle	G	6-6	201	2/18/86	R	Washington State
0	Westbrook, Russell	PG	6-3	190	11/12/88	R	UCLA
3	White, D.J.	PF	6-9	251	8/31/86	R	Indiana
54	Wilcox, Chris	FC	6-10	235	9/3/82	6	Maryland
21	Wilkins, Damien	GF	6-6	225	1/11/80	4	Georgia

  - Player injured

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One is $12.7 million over the Salary Cap; the other is $1.1 million under the Cap.

One has an average age of 24.7; the other an average age of 26.6.

One has 2 No. 1 [overall] NBA Draft Picks on it; the other has 1.

Both are led by first-time, interim head coaches.

Objectively speaking, when you’re hard-pressed to distinguish between the authentic talent levels of two teams in the NBA with respective W-L records as far apart as these … i.e. Toronto is 10-15, .400; Oklahoma is 2-24, .077 … it does not portend well for the squad with the higher win percentage, if it’s also playing away from home.

As the first game in a 6-stop Western road trip, this is now a crucial get for the Raptors. 

* Win tonight … and the up-coming match-ups against the Clippers, Kings and the Warriors will not look nearly so daunting.

* Lose tonight … and the Dinos will be staring straight into the abyss of a calamitous 10-game losing streak:

Sun Dec 14 vs New Orleans/15-7, .682 - LOSS
Mon Dec 15 vs New Jersey/12-12, .500 - LOSS
Wed Dec 17 vs Dallas/14-10, .583 - LOSS
Fr Dec 19 at Oklahoma City/2-24, 0.77 - ?
Sat Dec 20 at San Antonio/15-10, .600 - ? [L]
Mon Dec 22 at LA Clippers/7-18, .280 - ?
Fri Dec 26 at Sacramento/7-19, .269 - ?
Sat Dec 27 at Portland/17-10, .630 - ? [L]
Mon Dec 29 at Golden State/7-19, .269 - ?
Wed Dec 31 vs Denver/17-8, .680 - ? [L]

from which they might not be able recover this season.

On the road, in the NBA, is where a team - especially one that’s struggling - finds out exactly what it’s made of … and, whether it should either:

A. Sit tight, [and] take hold

or

B. Trade in these wings on some wheels.

Key early season games for the Raptors
Key early season games for the Raptors: Part II

Come Jan 01 2009, the Raptors will have their answer.

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“The door’s open but the ride it ain’t free.”
- Thunder Road [Bruce Springstein]