khandor’s sports blog

According to the most recent reports … i.e. Cavaliers-Raptors Preview … Anderson Varejao [PF-C] will not be in the line-up this evening for the visiting Cavaliers.

If the home side should manage to lose this game, with their first west coast road trip of the regular season schedule set to kick off on Monday:

Mon Nov 1 @ Sacramento Kings
Wed Nov 3 @ Utah Jazz
Fri Nov 5 @ LA Lakers
Sat Nov 6 @ Portland Trail Blazers

there’s a very real possibility for the Raptors to be 0-6, by the time they play their next game in the cozy confines of the ACC.

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The first published wagering line for this evening’s game was listed as:

Toronto -2.5/-110

The currently published wagering line, however, is now showing as:

Toronto -3.0/-108 [as of 8:15 AM]

Although this is not the NBA game which will be given out to KSS clients today, the Cavs should also be a solid selection, at +3.0 … if Byron Scott is able to use Leon Powe [PF-C], as the primary replacement for Varejao, while continuing to feature JJ Hickson [PF], as his go-to scorer, with Antawn Jamison [PF] coming off the bench … and, especially, if this line continues to rise, in their favour, as tip-off approaches. 

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Up-date:

The currently published wagering line for this game is now …

Toronto -3.5/-104 [as of 11:00 AM].

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PS. Despite what many Raptors fans might think about them, each of Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker and [even] Joey Graham [Reserve-?] are solid NBA players – if used in their proper roles – who are quite capable of succeeding on a lower tier playoff team … when working under a top notch coach and without the benefit of playing beside a ‘superstar’ teammate … in comparison with their current counterparts in Toronto’s line-up.

Last season the Raptors finished 4th in the Atlantic Division and 13th, overall, in the Eastern Conference [i.e. 33-49/402].

Offensively, they scored 99.0 Points Per Game [16th in the NBA].
Defensively, they allowed 101.9 Points Per Game [20th in the NBA].
In terms of Points Scored Differential, they finished with a Per Game mark of -2.9 [23rd in the NBA].  
In terms of Rebounding Differential, they finished with a Per Game mark of -1.5 [22nd in the NBA].

Thus far, this season, Toronto is:

* 2nd in the Atlantic Division and 10th, overall, in the Eastern Conference [i.e. 7-11/.389];

* 4th in Points Scored Per Game [104.9]

* 29th in Points Allowed Per Game [109.4]

* 23rd in Points Scored Differential Per Game [-4.4]

* 20th in Rebounding Differential Per Game [-0.4] 

How much is the roster really improved for the 2009-2010 Toronto Raptors, compared with the 2008-2009 version?

The main problem the Raptors have right now is rooted in the Basketball Philosophy of its Management Team which continues to place far too much emphasis on the Individual Offensive ability of specific players and not nearly enough emphasis on those same players’ Individual Defensive ability.

Until the Raptors add more multi-dimensional players to their roster with the ability to defend their position[s] effectively AND reward those players with additional playing time during important parts of games, Toronto will continue to be little more than a high scoring [entertaining?] Treadmill Team.

Toronto Raptors 112
DENVER NUGGETS 130
Tue Nov 17 2009 – Game Scoreboard

With both Hedo Turkoglu [SF, 6-10, 220] and Reggie Evans [PF, 6-8, 245] out of the line-up, the Raptors were “physically” over-matched vs the Nuggets in last night’s game.

ASSESSING INDIVIDUAL MATCH-UPS BASED ON SIZE, STRENGTH, AGILITY AND EXPLOSIVE QUICKNESS

Defensively, from Denver’s perspective

Nene * [6-11, 250, i.e. size and agility] is a terrific check vs Chris Bosh [6-10, 230], anytime that CB4 does not step-off from the block. 

Kenyon Martin * [6-9, 240, i.e. size, strength, agility and explosive quickness] is a terrific check vs Andrea Bargnani [7-0, 250]. Period.

The combination of Nene and K-Mart is a terrific pairing vs CB4 and Bargnani … since: [i] Andrea is a perimeter Center who cannot take Kenyon into the low-post to do damage, and [ii] whenever CB4 steps out to the perimeter it then leaves Toronto with ZERO low-post game.

Chris Andersen * [6-10, 228, i.e. agility and explosive quickness] is a terrific check vs either [a] Amir Johnson * [6-9, 210] or [b] Rasho Nesterovic [7-0, 255.

Arron Afflalo * [6-5, 215, i.e. strength and agility] is a solid check vs DeMar DeRozan * [6-7, 220].

Defensively, from Toronto’s Perspective

Carmelo Anthony * [6-8, 230, i.e. size, strength and agility] is a nightmare for the Raptors. Period.

Chauncey Billups * [6-3, 202, i.e. strength] is a difficult check for the Raptors. Period.

JR [Earl] Smith * [6-6, 220] i.e. expolosive quickness] is a difficult check for the Raptors, when they try to go with Marco Belinelli [6-5, 200, i.e. less strength and less quickness; more offensive skill] instead of Sonny Weems * [6-6, 203, i.e. as much strength and quickness; less offensive skill].

Ty Lawson * [5-11, 195, i.e. quickness] is a difficult check for the Raptors. Period.

Physically, Denver is a superior team to Toronto and simply worn down the Raptors’ best players in the 2nd [36-35/+1], 3rd [33-25/+8] and 4th [33-23/+10] quarters.

There’s no magic answer when these two teams play.

Last night:

Denver generated 105 offensive possessions [with just 3 O-Rebs].
Toronto generated 117 offensive possessions [with 19 O-Rebs].

Denver shot 61.5 [FG%].
Toronto shot 46.2 [FG%].

Denver generated 68 points in the paint.
Toronto generated 34 points in the paint.

Denver scored points at a rate of 1.238 per possession.
Toronto scored points at a rate of 0.957 per possession.

When a team like Toronto [which scores alot of points per game and yields alot of points per game, in return] plays a team like Denver [which scores alot of points per game and yields alot of points per game, in return ... but, also has physically gifted players [*] at several positions] then Toronto is going to end up on the short end of the scoreboard a majority of the time.

When Toronto has faced a Quality Opponent [.500+] this season which has not:

i. Been in the 2nd half of a back-2-back; or,
ii. Made the mistake of playing their 2 hulking centers together vs the combo of Bosh and Bargnani;

the Dinos have performed in the following way:

In general, teams that surrender more than 1.0 points per possession, vs a specific set of opponents, while scoring fewer than 1.0 points per possession themselves, have too many players who are “physically” inferior to their individual counterparts when matched-up with those teams.

Yet another reason to like the job which Otis Smith [GM] has done, thus far?

NBA Countdown: No. 8 Orlando Magic
Reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in 14 years and second in franchise history was a wonderful accomplishment for the Orlando Magic-but there was no guarantee a championship would follow.The Magic will go into the 2009-10 season determined to defend their Eastern Conference title but looking different than when they won it. Yes, they still have All-Star center Dwight Howard as their foundation and high-priced Rashard Lewis (who’s suspended the first 10 games of the season after testing positive for an elevated testosterone level) shooting 3-pointers, but the Magic changed their late-game, go-to guy by switching from Turkoglu to Carter.

It’s why general manager Otis Smith didn’t take any bows, or even take the time to catch his breath.

And it’s also why he made one of the boldest moves of the summer, changing his carefully crafted team chemistry by trading for All-Star Vince Carter and letting go of free agent Hedo Turkoglu, a key player in Orlando’s recent rise.

“You can’t stand still in this league,” Smith said. “If you do, you’ll be going backward.”

The Magic also added free agents in power forward Brandon Bass from Dallas and small forward Matt Barnes of Phoenix. They even added point guard Jason Williams, who last played during 2007-08 with the Heat. Surprisingly, they kept backup center Marcin Gortat by matching the offer sheet Dallas gave him.

With the Celtics adding Rasheed Wallace and the Cavaliers trading for Shaquille O’Neal, the Magic tried to keep pace with the other serious contenders in the East.

“There are less than seven teams every year that really are trying to win a championship in our league,” Smith said. “Those three (in the East) are trying to win now, as opposed to saying ‘We’re OK where we are. Let’s stay the status quo.’”

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Otis Smith was hired by the Magic on May 6, 2006.

This is what the team’s roster looked like on that day:

Augmon, Stacey F
Battie, Tony PF-C
Cato, Kelvin C
Diener, Travis PG
Dooling, Keyon G
Francis, Steve G
Garrity, Pat PF
Hill, Grant G-F
Howard, Dwight C
Kasun, Mario C
Morris, Terence PF
Nelson, Jameer PG
Outlaw, Bo PF
Stevenson, DeShawn G
Turkoglu, Hedo F

This is what it looks like today, 41 months later:

Almond, Morris G
Anderson, Ryan PF
Barnes, Matt F
Bass, Brandon PF
Carter, Vince G-F
Foyle, Adonal C
Gortat, Marcin C
Howard, Dwight C
Johnson, Anthony PG
Johnson, Linton F
Lewis, Rashard F
Nelson, Jameer PG
Pietrus, Mickael G-F
Redick, JJ G
Williams, Jason PG

This is Orlando’s record of performance, since that date:

2008-2009
59-23/.720, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, NBA Finalist 
2007-2008
52-30/.634, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 2nd Rd
2006-2007
40-42/.488, 3rd Atlantic, 8th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

This was their record of performance the season before Smith arrived:

2005-2006
36-46/.439, 3rd Atlantic, 10th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

3 full seasons into his tenure with the Magic, Otis Smith should be considered as one of the best GM’s in the NBA.

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By way of comparison, for the benefit of Raptors fans, this is what Toronto has accomplished under the direction of Bryan Colangelo [2-time NBA EOTY award recipient] during this same time-frame:

2005-2006 Roster [Feb 28 2006]
Araujo, Rafael PF
Bonner, Matt PF
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
Davis, Antonio PF-C
Graham, Joey F
James, Mike PG
Martin, Darrick PG
Peterson, Morris G-F
Sow, Pape PF
Villanueva, Charlie F
Williams, Eric G-F
Woods, Loren C

2009-2010, Current Roster
Banks, Marcus G
Bargnani, Andrea C
Belinelli, Marco G-F
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
DeRozan, Demar G-F
Douby, Quincy G
Evans, Reggie PF
Jack, Jarrett G
Johnson, Amir PF
Nesterovic, Rasho PF-C
O’Bryant, Patrick C
Turkoglu, Hedo F
Weems, Sonny G-F
Wright, Antoine G-F

Year #1-3
2008-2009
33-49/.402, 4th Atlantic, 13th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs
2007-2008
41-41/.500, 2nd Atlantic, 6th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd
2006-2007
47-35/.573, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

Year Prior
2005-2006
27-55/.329, 4th Atlantic, 1st Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

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In the NBA, the cold harsh reality is that there are only 2 distinct tiers of teams:

Tier 1
Those few that are actually trying to win the League Championship.

Tier 2
Everybody else.

Much R.E.S.P.E.C.T. to Otis Smith for “cutting to the chase” and improving the Orlando Magic each season, thus far.

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re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 11 – at Denver [Tue Nov 17]

At Denver last season [Dec 03 2008] is where things turned ugly for the Raptors, when Sam Mitchell was fired following a lopsided loss. This season’s Nuggets should prove to be too much for the Dinos, as well, with several individual match-up advantages. Although not as deep as last season’s team, Denver should still be one of the better squads in the WC this year, if their key players can remain healthy.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 4-7

The 5 teams in the Atlantic Division finished in the following order last season:

1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756, 2nd East, Lost 2nd Round 
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500, 6th East, Lost 1st Round  
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415, 3rd East, Missed Playoffs
4. Toronto Raptors, 33-49/.402, 13th East, Missed Playoffs
5. New York Knicks, 32-50/.390, 14th East, Missed Playoffs

At this point in the off season, the teams have made the following player personnel changes:

BOSTON CELTICS
Significant Losses
1. Leon Powe [PF], UFA
2. Mikki Moore [PF-C], UFA
3. Stephon Marbury [PG]
4. Gabe Pruitt [PG-OG]

Significant Adds
1. Lester Hudson/2nd Round Draft Pick [No. 58, overall]
2. Rasheed Wallace, UFA
3. Sheldon Williams, UFA
4. Marquis Daniels, UFA

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Significant Losses
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. Andre Miller [PG], UFA
3. Theo Ratliff [PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Elton Brand [PF], returns from injury
2. Jason Smith [PF-C], returns from injury
3. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
4. Jrue Holiday [PG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 19, overall]  
5. Rodney Carney [SF], UFA

NEW JERSEY NETS
Significant Losses
1. Vince Carter [SF-OG], trade
2. Ryan Anderson [PF], trade

Significant Adds
1. Terrence Williams [SF-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 11, overall]
2. Courtney Lee [OG], trade
3. Rafer Alston [PG], trade
4. Tony Battie [PF-C], trade

TORONTO RAPTORS
Significant Losses
1. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
2. Shawn Marion [PF-SF], UFA/Sign & trade
3. Kris Humphries [PF], trade
4. Nathan Jawai [PF-C], trade
5. Anthony Parker [OG-SF-PG], UFA
6. Joey Graham [SF], UFA
7. Roko Ukic [PG], trade
8. Carlos Delfino [SF-OG], trade

Significant Adds
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 9, overall]
3. Hedo Turkoglu [SF], Sign & trade
4. Antoine Wright [SF-OG], trade
5. Jarrett Jack [PG-OG], RFA
6. Marco Belinelli [OG-SF-PG], trade
7. Rasho Nesterovic [C-PF], UFA
8. Amir Johnson [PF], trade 

NEW YORK KNICKS
Significant Losses
1. Quentin Richardson [SF-OG], trade
2. Chris Wilcox, PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Danilo Gallinari [SF-PF], returns from injury
2. Jordan Hill [PF-C], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 8, overall]
3. Toney Douglas [PG-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 29, overall]
4. Darko Milicic [PF-C], trade
5. Sun Yue [PG], UFA

While several NBA observers seem to think the Raptors SHOULD be much improved this coming season, based on the wholesale changes made to their roster … this corner does not necessarily share that same opinion, when evaluated against the LOSSESS & ADDS of the other teams in their Division.

Q1. Have the Raptors improved, overall, from last season, relative to their competition?

A1. Maybe; maybe not … is the correct answer, at this point.

The Knicks and Nets are in re-building mode, and the Raptors SHOULD have been expected to finish this coming season in NO WORSE than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Celtics and, possibly, the 76ers … even if they would have done “nothing” substantive to improve their team this summer.

However, given that doing “nothing” was in fact the OPPOSITE of what the Raptors decided to do this off season … i.e. see above … it SHOULD now be EXPECTED that this supposedly improved team SHOULD finish NO WORSE than in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Celtics.

Once this expectation is established, what then becomes interesting is …

if the divisional standings eventually look something like this:

ATLANTIC
1 Boston
2 Toronto or Philadelphia
3 Philadelphia or Toronto
4 New York or New Jersey
5 New Jersey or New York

and the conference standings eventually look something like this:

SOUTHEAST
1 Orlando
2 Atlanta or Miami or Washington
3 Miami Atlanto or Washington
4 Washington or Atlanta or Miami
5 Charlotte

CENTRAL
1 Cleveland
2 Detroit or Chicago or Indiana
3 Chicago or Detroit or Indiana
4 Indiana or Detroit or Chicago
5 Milwaukee

and the playoff race eventually looks something like this:

Eastern Conference
1-2-3 Orlando – High End, Southeast
1-2-3 Cleveland – High End, Central
1-2-3 Boston – High End, Atlantic

4-5-6 Atlanta – Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Miami – Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Washington – Upper Middle, Southeast

7-8-9-10-11-12 Detroit – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Chicago – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Indiana – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Toronto – Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Philadelphia – Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Charlotte – Low End, Southwest

12-13-14-15 Milwaukee – Low End, Central
12-13-14-15 New York – Low End, Atlantic
12-13-14-15 New Jersey – Low End, Atlantic

indicating, perhaps, that the relative strength of each division may be shifting this season:

#1. Southeast
#2. Central
#3. Atlantic 

IF a scenario like this is eventually what plays out this season, then, how much will the Raptors really have improved this summer, relative to the other teams in their Division and the Eastern Conference, as a whole?

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OPTION 1 is the Raptors current roster.

OPTION 2 is the roster which the team could/should have today … if it would have followed the advice of yours truly, and a GM like Joe Dumars, who has already won 3 NBA Championships …

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JD: When we had cap space maybe eight years ago, we made a decision then – there was a question back then about going out and trying to sign one big name with that money. We made a decision back then that we wanted to come out of that free agency with multiple players. We made the same decision this year – we’re not going to go out and sign one max player and then tout that we’ve had a great off-season. As we entered the summer, we were not one max player away from being a contender, so it made no sense to go out and target one guy. We wanted to come out of this free agency with a minimum of three guys and we’ve done that with Wilcox, with Villanueva, with Ben Gordon, and to be in a position financially to also sign a veteran big like we wanted to, to also have Ben Wallace, as well. To come out of it with three or four players, that’s what we wanted to do in the first place. We believe talent in numbers wins. That’s what we’re going to continue to try to do.
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… during the last 15 months, regarding:

* The trade for Jermaine O’Neal & Nathan Jawai last summer … i.e. DON’T DO IT;

* The trade for Shawn Marion & Marcus Banks this past season … i.e. DON’T DO IT; and,

* The sign & trade for Hedo Turkoglu, Antoine Wright & Devean George this summer … i.e. DON’T DO IT;

in conjunction with:

* The proposed trade of TJ Ford last summer [i.e. acquiring Rodney Carney]; 

* The selection of Chris Douglas-Roberts [No. 17, overall] in the 2008 NBA Draft … which would have precluded the signing of Will Solomon;

and, certain other personnel moves which actually have been made during this same time period that were NOT disastrous, according to this corner, including:

* The trade for a future 2nd Round draft pick last season … which got rid of Hassan Adams; 

* The signing of Quincy Douby last season;

* The trade for Reggie Evans this summer … which got rid of Jason Kapono;

* The selection of DeMar DeRozan [No. 9, overall] in the 2009 NBA Draft Pick;

* The signing of Jarrett Jack [i.e. as an UFA] this summer;

* The signing of Rasho Nesterovic [i.e. as an UFA] this summer; and,

* The trade for Amir Johnson … which got rid of Roko Ukic & Carlos Delfino.

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The major problem with the Raptors has not been a dirth of solid secondary personnel moves but, rather, the team’s repeated attempts to SPEED UP the development process, by making BIG “Swing For Fences” MOVES … seemingly without a comprehensive, well-coordinated, long term plan Plan Of Attack … in an effort to become a contending team TOO SOON, which inevitably result in self-inflicted wounds, that retard legitimate progress and waste the opportunities at-hand for gradual, sustained growth into one of the best franchises in the NBA.

PS. When you compare these two rosters there should be NO DOUBT, whatsoever, as to which one has the greater number of high calibre, athletic, young players that could have formed the basis of a quality team in Toronto for the next decade.   

The following article …

Raptors’ Newfound Depth Reason For Optimism
When Triano needs a wing he can look to Marco Belinelli, DeMar DeRozan, Hedo Turkoglu or Antoine Wright. Both Wright and Turkoglu started for teams that made the playoffs last season, while Belinelli is having an impressive summer starting for the Italian national team and DeRozan is a lottery pick that impressed a lot of people in Las Vegas in July.

Contrast this with last season where the Raptors gave significant minutes at various stages of the season to four players who had logged time in the D-League and it becomes obvious their starting rotation and bench have undergone a serious upgrade this summer.

[including the remarks in the comment section]

raises an interesting question in the mind of yours truly concerning the different options which the Raptors had to choose from in the aftermath of firing Sam Mitchell [Dec 3, 2008] last season and heading into this summer’s free agency period, at the Wing positions.

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FWIW …

This corner disagrees with those who think that the combination of:

NAME SALARY [2009-2010] PER [2008-2009]

Anthony Parker $2.6 M 12.16
Jamario Moon $3.0 M 13.35
Joey Graham $2.4 M [2008-2009]  11.99
DeMar DeRozan $2.3 M ?
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TOTAL SALARY: $10.3 M
TOTAL PER: 37.50

would have automatically been a substantially inferior unit for the Raptors on the wing this coming season … at their cumulative dollar value & given their PER … in comparison with:

Hedo Turkoglu $9.0 M 14.82
Antoine Wright $1.8 M 8.63
Marco Belinelli $1.5 M 11.86
DeMar DeRozan $2.3 M ?
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TOTAL SALARY: $14.6 M
TOTAL PER: 35.31

although others are certainly free to hold a different opinion about this, if they wish. 

Matching-up the Raptors’ current roster with the end-of-season version for the 2008-2009 campaign, on a position-by-position basis, looks like this:

While it’s relatively easy to see how other NBA observers can feel that the Raptors have increased their Perceived Talent Level [PTL] by a substantial amount this off season, when a comparative eye is then cast further backwards, to the previous year [2007-2008]:

and, ultimately, to the watershed 2006-2007 season: 

the picture produced is somewhat different.

Reviewing ALL 3 of these comparisons, at-once, it would be more accurate to say that the current roster has:

* MORE talent than the 2008-2009 version [33 wins];

* SLIGHTLY MORE talent than the 2007-2008 version [41 wins]; and,

* SLIGHTLY LESS talent than the 2006-2007 version [47 wins].

Courtesy of Matt Moore …

Offseason Lemon Face/Lion Face: Raptors/Bucks
re: Toronto
You have to wonder what Colangelo has targeted as the ceiling for this team. He can’t realistically think this team is going to win a championship. It needs to make the playoffs, that much is clear from salary alone. With Orlando, Cleveland, and Boston at the apex, does he believe they can get the 4 seed? Hope to make a push in the semis, and possibly get lucky with playing a banged up team that sparks them to the Finals (the Orlando plan)? Or is the goal just to contend, to be relevant, to be fun? Colangelo was part of something special in Phoenix by thinking outside the box and creating something new. Maybe this multi-positional rubix cube he’s created is his next masterpiece that changes things without ever bearing fruit.

re: Milwaukee
The main reason they get a Lemon Face is that they seem to be going in two directions. Jennings is the future, but Bogut is the franchise, but Redd is the leader, but we’re building for the future, but Luke Ridnour has a chokehold on our point guard spot but Roko Ukic could be great with some time but we want to win now but we want to win a championship but we’re also filling in holes like with Warrick.