khandor’s sports blog

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 20 – at Atlanta [Wed Dec 02]

The Hawks are going to be a solid team in the EC this season. Adding a good PG from the 2009 NBA Draft [i.e. Jeff Teague], a multi-purpose Guard [i.e. Jamal Crawford] and a serviceable veteran Big [i.e. Joe Smith] improves their squad significantly; as does 1 more year of maturation with their core group [i.e. Joe Johnson, 28; Al Horford, 23; Josh Smith, 23; and, Marvin Williams, 23] together. The individual match-up advantages favour Atlanta … which will probably mean another road loss for the Raptors, in this back-2-back.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 7-13

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PS. This marks the end of the “early season” phase for the Raptors.

Related:

Toronto Raptors Season Preview: Game 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1.

Finally … a stats guru speaks who is at least on the right track.

How stats apply to individual match-ups for elite level NBA coaches
WW: Tracy McGrady is a player who has never helped his team as much as people thought. Allen Iverson — for one or two years he was really good.

The best player of the decade, though, I’d say, was Kevin Garnett. We have a rating over the last eight or nine years, and Garnett comes out number one. And I think everybody else [other stat experts] has that too, so that’s nice.

Although I don’t like Garnett. When I watch on TV, he’s turning too edgy. Chippy attitude.

Another guy who is totally overrated is Amare Stoudemire. I mean, he’s a stat stuffer. Troy Murphy gets great stats, but never does much for the team.

(UPDATE: Winston amends this statement: “With Golden State Troy Murphy was a stat stuffer who did little to help the team but with Indiana the last two years he has improved to where he is an above average NBA player.”)

There’s a bunch of guys like that.

Andre Iguodala, though. Whenever he’s on the court for Philadelphia, they’re great. Whenever he’s off, they suck. God knows why he’s a good player. I watch him play, and I don’t know. (More on Iguodala.)

Jason Kidd is a little like that, but you can see why he makes guys better. But not Iguodala.

HA: Sometimes I feel like I can see Kidd’s greatness, but other times, at this stage of his career, I can’t. 

WW: Kidd can’t guard a fast guard. They go right by him like he’s standing still. They always did. Against Chris Paul … Jason Kidd might as well be standing still on defense.

But the interesting thing: Devin Harris can nail Tony Parker. But Steve Nash can beat Devin Harris. But Parker can beat Nash.

It’s not transitive. We can show that. That’s really interesting. That shouldn’t be. But it is. There are probably a lot of other things like that.

If coaches see other examples of things like that, we can back them up with data. Del Harris really got to like us, I think, because a lot of times our numbers confirmed what he thought. It’s hard to argue with the numbers when you’ve got a full amount of data on it.

Last year [Maverick assistant] Terry Stotts did a really great job asking us questions. Before the Spurs series, they asked us about Antoine Wright.  He’s not on the team anymore, thank god. OK, he had a bad rating in our system. But the fascinating thing was, when he played small forward, he was good. When he played shooting guard, he was terrible. So we can break that down. I can find every combination where he was small forward and he was good. Every combination where he was shooting guard he was terrible. 

Against the Spurs, they used him as a small forward and he was great. Every time he played for Howard at small forward, they killed the Spurs.

Things like this … I needed the coach to ask me the question because I would have never thought of it. You don’t just throw the numbers at the coach, because, I mean, 500,000 numbers! But if the coach understands what he’s doing, and says “I think Antoine Wright can play small forward can you tell me if that’s true?” That’s how you use the stuff.

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THIS is the direction in which basketball analysis NEEDS to go.

Sincere thanks to you … Wayne Winston!

PS. It’s the job of an elite level basketball coach to answer correctly the questions which Wayne Winston doesn’t happen to have the specific training, knowledge base and experience to discern properly on his own … e.g. What really makes Andre Iguodala as good as he is given what the “average” stats/numbers have to say about his level of play?  Those who can DO THAT are the ones with the type of Basketball Analysis/Acumen you SHOULD BE listening to in order to better understand, How The NBA Game Actually Works, Based On Individual Match-ups.

PPS. Class for NBA 101 is now finished for today … or, in fact, for some of you, at least, it may just be starting … from scratch.

PPPS. Btw … What Wayne Winston had to say in this piece about there being no distinction necessary between the use of players like Brandon Bass [#4/PF] and Dirk Nowitzki [#5/C], on the court together, regardless of their position, and the effect/thinking of Mike D’Antoni, just happens to be wrong.

In line with the series of “Raptors vs Eastern Conference Opponent Match-ups” which are being presenting in this space [i.e. I & II], there’s an interesting POV expressed today, by Arsenalist, at Raptors Republic, i.e. Comparing our bench to others, which sees Toronto’s 2nd Tier of players as actually holding sway this season over the likes of Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago, while being even with Orlando.

FWIW …

The view from this corner, on this specific topic, is somewhat different:

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RATIONALE

Vs Boston Celtics

When House gets used beside HOF players like KG, PP & Ray Ray, neither Jack nor Belinelli is a comparable player, in terms of actual productivity.

Davis may comparable to Evans … until you include the fact that Reggie can’t shoot the ball, at all, and is a veritable pylon on D.

Wallace is simply a far better Big than either Evans or Nesterovic.

Vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Parker [6-6] is a semi-legit starting OG-SF in the NBA, compared with Belinelli, who is a legit starting PG-OG.

Moon’s versatility and PER are far better than Wright’s.

Ilgauskas is a solid mid & long range jump-shooter who is a tough check for either Nesterovic or Evans that far away from the basket.

Vs Orlando Magic

Pietrus is a far superior rebounder, defender and scorer than either Belinelli or Wright.

Anderson is a solid mid & long range jump-shooter who is a tough check for either Evans or Nesterovic.

Gortat is simply a far superior Big to Nesterovic or Evans, at this stage of their respective careers.

Vs Detroit Pistons

Villanueva is a far superior scorer, as a Big, to either Evans or Nesterovic.

Maxiell is a tougher player than Evans and a better interior scorer & rebounder than Nesterovic.

Wilcox is just as tough as Evans but a much better scorer.

Vs Chicago Bulls

Neither Belinelli nor Wright is as good a Wing player as Salmons.

Noah is a much better rebounder and shot-blocker than either Evans or Nesterovic.

Salmons & Noah together are enough to off-set the advantage which the Raptors have when compared to the trio of Hunter, Pargo & James.

Vs Atlanta Hawks

Crawford played over Belinelli last season [in G-State] for a reason [i.e. Jamaal can defend Marco; Marco can’t defend Jamaal].

Evans may be a comparable to Wright on D but he is a better player on O, as Maurice actually shoots at a solid percentage.

Pachulia is an even tougher Big than Evans.

Smith is a solid mid-range jump-shooter and a tough check for Nesterovic or Evans that far away from the basket.

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Vive La Différence!

Current Odds To Win this Series
Orlando Magic +565
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -615

Although Cleveland has played very well to this point in the Playoffs, they do not enjoy a host of different match-up advantages vs Orlando, like they did vs Atlanta and Detroit.

In particular, the specific spots where the Cavaliers have possessed major advantages … i.e. at the PF/C positions, plus in terms of Quality Depth, overall … will not be the case in this series:

Power Forward/Center

* Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Joe Smith, Ben Wallace & JJ Hickson is a versatile and highly effective set of Bigs. So, too, however, is the combination of Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Tony Battie, Marcin Gortat & Adonal Foyle.  

Quality Depth

* The Cavs’ remaining group of Guards & Forwards: Lebron James, Mo Williams, Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, Wally Szerczbiak, Sasha Pavlovic & Tarence Kinsey is stout and highly serviceable. However, they are not a superior force, in comparison with the Magic’s corresponding group at those same positions: Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, Anthony Johnson, JJ Redick, Mikael Pietrus & Tyron Lue.

With a Series Price like THAT … Orlando [+565] is a VERY GOOD proposition.

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Please Note:
At the moment, the Cavaliers are +116 to NOT Win the 2008-2009 NBA Title. For those so inclined, this is a VERY GOOD proposition.

Thunder near trade for Hornets’ Chandler
Presti continues sound foundation construction around Kevin Durant [SF]. Controlled PG? Westbrook; check. Multi-purpose PF? Green; check. Defensive/Rebounding C? TC; check. Multi-purpose/defensive focused OG? … Next. 

Celtics trade ‘assistant coach’ Sam Cassell to KIngs
Expect Sam-I-Am back in Beantown, shortly, sitting in the 2nd row behind Doc. Is Ainge preparing for a bigger deal prior to the deadline? Looks like it.

Raptors fans …

So you’re scared and you’re thinking
That maybe we ain’t that young anymore
Show a little faith there’s magic in the night
You ain’t a beauty but hey you’re alright
Oh and that’s alright with me …

Going into tonight’s game, which of these two player rosters would you prefer, if you were a working GM in the NBA?

Oklahoma Thunder Active Roster
No.	Player	Pos	Ht	Wt	DOB	Exp	College
4	Collison, Nick	FC	6-9	255	10/26/80	5	Kansas
35	Durant, Kevin	GF	6-9	215	9/29/88	1	Texas
22	Green, Jeff	F	6-9	235	8/8/86	1	Georgetown
51	Hill, Steven	FC	7-0	245	11/14/85	R	Arkansas
34	Mason, Desmond	GF	6-5	222	10/11/77	8	Oklahoma State
27	Petro, Johan	C	7-0	247	1/27/86	3	None
18	Sene, Mouhamed	C	6-11	230	5/12/86	2	None
7	Smith, Joe	PF	6-10	225	7/26/75	13	Maryland
31	Swift, Robert	C	7-1	270	12/3/85	4	None
25	Watson, Earl	PG	6-1	185	6/12/79	7	UCLA
5	Weaver, Kyle	G	6-6	201	2/18/86	R	Washington State
0	Westbrook, Russell	PG	6-3	190	11/12/88	R	UCLA
3	White, D.J.	PF	6-9	251	8/31/86	R	Indiana
54	Wilcox, Chris	FC	6-10	235	9/3/82	6	Maryland
21	Wilkins, Damien	GF	6-6	225	1/11/80	4	Georgia

  – Player injured

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One is $12.7 million over the Salary Cap; the other is $1.1 million under the Cap.

One has an average age of 24.7; the other an average age of 26.6.

One has 2 No. 1 [overall] NBA Draft Picks on it; the other has 1.

Both are led by first-time, interim head coaches.

Objectively speaking, when you’re hard-pressed to distinguish between the authentic talent levels of two teams in the NBA with respective W-L records as far apart as these … i.e. Toronto is 10-15, .400; Oklahoma is 2-24, .077 … it does not portend well for the squad with the higher win percentage, if it’s also playing away from home.

As the first game in a 6-stop Western road trip, this is now a crucial get for the Raptors. 

* Win tonight … and the up-coming match-ups against the Clippers, Kings and the Warriors will not look nearly so daunting.

* Lose tonight … and the Dinos will be staring straight into the abyss of a calamitous 10-game losing streak:

Sun Dec 14 vs New Orleans/15-7, .682 - LOSS
Mon Dec 15 vs New Jersey/12-12, .500 - LOSS
Wed Dec 17 vs Dallas/14-10, .583 - LOSS
Fr Dec 19 at Oklahoma City/2-24, 0.77 - ?
Sat Dec 20 at San Antonio/15-10, .600 – ? [L]
Mon Dec 22 at LA Clippers/7-18, .280 - ?
Fri Dec 26 at Sacramento/7-19, .269 - ?
Sat Dec 27 at Portland/17-10, .630 - ? [L]
Mon Dec 29 at Golden State/7-19, .269 - ?
Wed Dec 31 vs Denver/17-8, .680 - ? [L]

from which they might not be able recover this season.

On the road, in the NBA, is where a team – especially one that’s struggling – finds out exactly what it’s made of … and, whether it should either:

A. Sit tight, [and] take hold

or

B. Trade in these wings on some wheels.

Key early season games for the Raptors
Key early season games for the Raptors: Part II

Come Jan 01 2009, the Raptors will have their answer.

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“The door’s open but the ride it ain’t free.”
- Thunder Road [Bruce Springstein]

Despite having the 2nd best basketball player in the world today on their roster, it’s as though the Management Team in Cleveland is still searching in the dark for a roadmap, detailing how to get their crew safely to the Land of Milk and Honey.

Cavaliers acquire Williams in three-team trade

It says in this corner that … the Cavaliers are no closer today to winning the NBA title, one day in the future, than they were yesterday, before this latest transaction occurred; or, than they were several months ago, when they last attempted (in vain) to upgrade the personnel on their team …

Cavaliers just went backwards

The immmediate take on the ramifications of this three-team trade?

Sam Presti & the ‘Oklahoma Whatsitsnames’ just improved their team, again.