khandor’s sports blog

Continuing the series which was started here on Monday … 

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 3 – vs Orlando [Sun Nov 01]

Coming off an 0-2 start to the new season, this is a 2nd key early game for the Raptors. If Toronto is actually going to re-assert itself this season, as a legit team in the EC playoff race, the Dinos will need to win this Sunday afternoon tilt against a Magic squad that will be without the services of Rashard Lewis [i.e. absent due to league-imposed suspension]. With the support of a typically raucous home crowd, the off day in-between road games for Orlando [whose players will be spending Saturday evening experiencing the nightlife in T.O.], and this being Hedo Turkoglu’s first home game in his new digs vs the squad that declined the opportunity to pay him the $$$ he felt he deserved this summer, as an important UFA for a team that advanced to the NBA Finals last season … the Raptors should be able to win this match-up. If not … it might be a really long year ahead for the Dinos.  

[PLEASE NOTE: Should the Magic start their season 2-0 before arriving in Toronto, and Vince Carter decides that he is really going to "bring it" vs his old team, and a defender like Turk ... who cannot check him 1-on-1 if his life depended on it ... and the ridiculous chorus of revengeful boos that repeatedly rain down upon him at the Air Canada Centre ... then it should come as no surprise, whatsoever, if the Magic can actually pull this one out of the fire, at the last second, on a terrific set play drawn up by SVG. As such, this could be a real hum-dinger ... and a critical swing game for the Raptors!]

Raptors expected W-L Record: W, 1-2

Thus far, this summer, every personnel move made by the Magic has been Right on the Money!

Magic close to signing C.J. Watson
The Orlando Magic are close to signing free agent point guard C.J. Watson, giving them an alternative to veteran Anthony Johnson as a backup to often-injured Jameer Nelson.

According to NBA sources, Watson could be signed as early as this weekend. Watson last season averaged 9.5 points and 2.7 assists, mostly as a backup for the Warriors. Golden State would have seven days to match any offer, since Watson is a restricted free agent.

———-

Yes, C.J. Watson is a restricted free agent and Golden State still has the right to match this offer from Orlando in order to retain his services … but, if the the Warriors decide to decline this opportunity, given the other PG’s they have on their roster, the Magic will have struck gold once again during the free agency period.

Whatever criticism may have been levied towards Otis Smith & Dave Twardzik prior to last season needs to be discarded as complete nonsense. No one makes a series of inter-connected moves over an extended period of time … like these manoeuvres … without having a well-formulated plan in place that is being gradually unfurled like clockwork. 

When you look at their roster from three seasons ago [40-42/.488, 3rd place Southeast] … and, then, compare it to what’s there now, surrounding a stud like D12 [C]:

STARTERS
1 Jameer Nelson, PG, 6th yr
2 Vince Carter, OG, 12th yr
3 Rashard Lewis, SF-PF, 12th yr 
4 Brandon Bass, PF, 5th yr
5 Dwight Howard, C, 6th yr

KEY SUBS
6 Anthony Johnson, PG, 13 yr
7 JJ Redick, OG, 4th yr
8 Mickael Pietrus, SF, 7th yr
9 Ryan Anderson, PF, 2nd yr
10 Marcin Gortat, C, 3rd yr

KEY RESERVES
11 C.J. Watson, PG, 3rd yr - ? [restricted free agent/Golden State]  
12 Jeremy Richardson, SF, 4th yr - ? [restricted free agent/Orlando]
13 Player X, PF/C - ? 

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Legend:
Italics - Added 2 seasons ago; Bold Italics - Added 1 season ago; Bold - Added this season.
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it’s a treat to see High End pro’s like this in action.

Despite the fact that there are those in Raptorville who think that their favourite team has perhaps improved the most of all, so far, this summer, there is now a growing number of NBA observers who do not see this off season’s respective pluses and minuses adding up in that exact way.

e.g.  Roundtable: Analyzing free agency

The most recent of these is a solid article yesterday, by Kelly Dwyer, that examines THE team which he believes has, in fact, improved the most this summer during the initial stage of the Free Agency period.

The Orlando Magic are stacked
Even if Carter steps back a bit, at his age. Even if Gortat sulks, Nelson doesn’t bounce back, Howard doesn’t turn into Kevin McHale, and Bass starts slowly. This team is still better. Way better. And we’ve barely mentioned Ryan Anderson’s pretty, pretty eyes.

Have they paid through the teeth? Are they trying to win now? Hell yes. That contract was signed as soon as the sign-and-trade with Rashard Lewis went through two summers ago. When they committed that much to a player in his prime, the Magic signed off on the win now scheme, even if Howard was years away from his peak.

That’s bad, if you screw it up. The Magic, Otis Smith and Dave Twardzik, haven’t screwed it up. And credit the team’s ownership for paying for a winner. Even before the new stadium goes up. Even in this economy. Good on them. Appreciate these moves, because this team is running rings around everyone else this summer. I wouldn’t be as excited for Richard Jefferson, cats and kittens.

There’s a good-to-great chance it could mean a second round exit. That’s how tough the East is at the top of the order, and that’s OK. Hedo will be just fine in his first couple of years in Toronto, VC is past his prime, and these moves aren’t exactly fiscally responsible.

Doesn’t matter. They’re moves. They’re great moves. This team went to the Finals last month, and in the four weeks since, it’s gotten much, much better. Appreciate that.

———-

The direct tie-in to the Raptors’ current situation shouldn’t be that hard for most of the team’s die-hard fans to see for themselves

[Note: Just in case they can't quite make it out properly, however, it's related to the names of one Vincent Lamar Carter, who made his NBA bones in Toronto, and the Turkish Michael Jordan [i.e. Hedo Turkoglu], who hopes to sustain his solid play of the last few seasons in his new digs north of the 49th Parallel.]

———-

If the general consensus in the on-line hoops community of NBA observers is that:

1 The Magic have indeed improved the most this off season, thus far;
2 The Magic, Cavaliers and Celtics … in any order of finish in the regular season standings you might choose to prefer … should prove to be the top 3 teams in the EC this year, with perhaps the Hawks [i.e. #4 last year, who have re-signed their own FA plus added J-Crawford] and the Heat [i.e. #5 last year, who are now in the running to add Iverson or Boozer and/or Odom] hot on their heels;

This would then seem to leave the Bulls, Bobcats, Bucks, Knicks, Nets, Pacers, Pistons, Raptors, 76ers and Wizards in a dogfight terrific race for the #6, #7 and #8 positions in the Eastern Conference Playoffs next season.

Prior to the recent transaction between the Raptors [Bryan Colangelo], Mavericks [Donnie Nelson], Magic [Otis Smith & Dave Twardzik] and Grizzlies [Chris Wallace], this is what each of those team’s rosters looked like:

Coming out the other side, today, this is what they look like now, respectively:

Legend:
UFA - Unrestricted Free Agent; RFA - Restricted Free Agent; R - Rookie Player; TPE - Traded Player Exception; DP - Draft Pick; CC - Cash Considerations

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The Perspective From This Corner

The fact is, however, that the Cleveland Cavaliers [Danny Ferry] MAY have benefitted most of all from this specific transaction, as they subsequently gained unfettered access to Anthony Parker, the exact sort of complementary wing player they were searching for … to augment LeBron James & Co., in an effort to win their 1st NBA Championship. 

Your feedback is welcome in the “Comments” section.

According to a report published today …

Commited? Gortat to tour Mavs facility

Marcin Gortat, Orlando’s Back-up Center extraordinaire, could well be heading toward the Lone Star state, if the Magic decline the opportunity to match the contract he is offered by the Dallas Mavericks.

Would this really be a bad thing, however, from Orlando’s perspective?

Especially, in light of their recent trade for Vincent Lamar Carter … and the courtship of the Turkish Michael Jordan which is taking place right now across the breadth of the NBA?

Hmmm …

Yours truly thinks, perhaps, not.

Marcin Gortat is about to sign a major new contract [say, in excess of $5.0 M/yr] to become a key player for a new team that expects him to perform at a certain level of production each and every night in the NBA, against the best players in the world … coming off a season during which he performed like this: 2008-2009 Season Statistics. 

Now, this corner happens to like Mr. Gortat’s individual game a great deal but a move like that would make zero sense, from Orlando’s POV if, instead, the reigning Eastern Conference Champs could secure the services of another highly cost effective replacement Back-up Center … at a substantially lower rung on the pay scale … who just happens to be available, right now, also as a Restricted Free Agent, for a team that will have significant difficulty in paying him more money than he received last season, as the #3 Center on their depth chart.

Which player might this be?

If the Magic decline to match the contract offered to Mr. Gortat by the Mavericks and, instead, offer a new contract of their own to a highly serviceable Back-up Center by the name of Johan Petro … what might it do for Orlando’s ability to:

1. Resign Hedo Turkoglu;

and, then,

2. Present their fans with the following roster:

STARTERS
Jameer Nelson
Vince Carter
Hedo Turkoglu
Rashard Lewis
Dwight Howard

KEY SUBS
Anthony Johnson
JJ Redick
Mickael Pietrus
Ryan Anderson
Johan Petro

in an effort to win next year’s NBA Championship.

While one man’s steak is most definitely another man’s hamburger …

It says in this corner that Johan Petro [at @ $3.0 M/yr] … from a dollar for dollar perspective … would actually be a better Back-up Center [to Dwight Howard] in Orlando this coming season than would Marcin Gortat [at something more than $5.0 M/yr].

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Current Odds To Win This Series
Orlando +245
LOS ANGELES -265

The first question which needs to be asked and then answered regarding this series is:

Q1. What 5-Man Unit will the Lakers use to begin Game One?

A1. Either, Option I, Option II or Option III [see below]:

Q2. Which Option actually presents the better set of individual match-ups for each team?

A2. That’s the $64,000 Question for this series.

———-

Orlando’s Perspective

Option I
Gives the Magic their best opportunity to succeed, emphasizing Turkoglu’s Size & Skill Advantage vs Ariza, plus Lewis’ Quickness Advantage vs Gasol.

Option II
Limits the Magic to Turkoglu’s Size & Skill Advantage vs Ariza.  

Option III
Chokes Off the Magic’s Offense, eliminating their Individual Advantages. 

Los Angeles’ perspective

Option I
Gives the Lakers a chance to attack Lewis in the Pinch-Post position vs Gasol; but, exposes Gasol on the perimeter vs Lewis’ superior quickness.

Option II
Allows Bynum to work vs the Magic’s back-ups; but, exposes Gasol to be attacked by Howard in Low Block Post-ups.

Option III
Exposes Gasol to attacks by Howard; BUT, also ensures that Kobe can GO TO WORK vs Lee, unfettered, while, Bynum gets to work vs the Magic’s back-ups.

———-

Despite the Lakers now being a prohibitive favourite to win this series, there is still some legitimate “value” to be had with a play on the Magic, at +245 … if Los Angeles decides to go at Orlando with its customary M.O. [Option I].

That said, however, there is nothing about this series which SPELLS the word U-P-S-E-T, given the Individual Match-ups listed above.

———-

Related:

Charley Rosen’s 2009 NBA Finals Preview

Q1. Can the Cavaliers rebound from a 1-2 game deficit to win the EC Finals vs the Magic?

A1. Yes, they can.

Q2. Can the Nuggets claw their way back from a similar deficit to vanquish the Lakers in the WC Finals?

A2. Yes, they can.

———-

Both teams are capable of orchestrating a comeback to reach the Finals this season, based on the prodigious talents of players like Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony & Chauncey Billups.

However … that specific scenario is now quite unlikely to happen.

How come?

From top to bottom, and when healthy …

The two best teams in the NBA today are the Orlando Magic and the Los Angeles Lakers, and each one is simply too good to be overcome by their respective opponents in their conference finals series, both of which are missing key elements when it comes to actually winning the championship.

What The Cavaliers Are Still Missing

* Their best 5-Man Unit has yet to play any significant time together during their series vs Orlando, i.e. PG/Gibson, OG/Pavlovic, SF/James, PF/Varejao & C/Ilgauskas

* Mike Brown needs to develop a better feel for the game, and increased dexterity, as a Head Coach

* A 2nd Marquee Player at the Guard and/or Forward position with good size

What The Nuggets Are Still Missing

* A team playing a thuggish brand of basketball will not win the NBA Championship … because the rules of the game, rightfully, will not allow it

* More poise under pressure from players not named Chauncey Billups

* At least one more year’s worth of experience which goes beyond the 1st Round of the Playoffs

———- 

Looking back on the 2008-2009 regular season schedule:

December 20, 2008, Lakers at Magic, 103-106
January 16, 2009, Lakers vs Magic, 103-109

it’s most likely that this year’s NBA Finals series will have the makings of an all-time classic … even though the current MVP may well have been eliminated from the competition, by that point.

———-

On May 19, 2009 the wagering odds to win the 2008-2009 NBA Title were as follows:

Los Angeles Lakers
Yes/+220
No/-250 

Orlando Magic
Yes/+1800
No/-2300

both of which are looking like very solid propositions with each passing day.

———-

Throughout their rosters, both teams have What it takes to win the NBA Championship this season:

Orlando Magic [59-23]
PDR - 4
PAR - 6
RDR - 9
QR -19
QIR - 5
Rafer Alston, Anthony Johnson, Courtney Lee, Tyronn Lue, JJ Redick, Mickael Pietrus, Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Tony Battie, Adonal Foyle, Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat & Stan Van Gundy

Los Angeles Lakers [65-17]
PDR - 2
PAR - 14
RDR - 5
QR - 21
QIR - 6
Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Kobe Bryant, Sasha Vujacic, Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Josh Powell, DJ Mbenga & Phil Jackson

Legend:
PDR - Points Differential Ranking; PAR - Points Allowed Ranking; RDR - Rebound Differential Ranking; QR - Qaulity Rating; QIR - Quality Index Ranking

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Related:

When Orlando has it going 

Current Odds To Win this Series
Orlando Magic +565
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -615

Although Cleveland has played very well to this point in the Playoffs, they do not enjoy a host of different match-up advantages vs Orlando, like they did vs Atlanta and Detroit.

In particular, the specific spots where the Cavaliers have possessed major advantages … i.e. at the PF/C positions, plus in terms of Quality Depth, overall … will not be the case in this series:

Power Forward/Center

* Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Joe Smith, Ben Wallace & JJ Hickson is a versatile and highly effective set of Bigs. So, too, however, is the combination of Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Tony Battie, Marcin Gortat & Adonal Foyle.  

Quality Depth

* The Cavs’ remaining group of Guards & Forwards: Lebron James, Mo Williams, Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, Wally Szerczbiak, Sasha Pavlovic & Tarence Kinsey is stout and highly serviceable. However, they are not a superior force, in comparison with the Magic’s corresponding group at those same positions: Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, Anthony Johnson, JJ Redick, Mikael Pietrus & Tyron Lue.

With a Series Price like THAT … Orlando [+565] is a VERY GOOD proposition.

———-

Please Note:
At the moment, the Cavaliers are +116 to NOT Win the 2008-2009 NBA Title. For those so inclined, this is a VERY GOOD proposition.

FINAL SCORE: 76ERS 89, Magic 114
Complete Game Info

When the individual match-ups are changed in a NBA playoff series, it can fundamentally alter the outcome of that specific game … which is what happened here last night.

Q1. Did Orlando miss Dwight Howard and Courtney Lee?
A1. Yes, they did … but not nearly as much as they were helped by getting ’smaller’, ‘more athletic’ and being able to ’stretch the defense more’ through the increased PT for JJ Redick [OG], Mikael Pietrus [SF] and Marcin Gortat [C] … each of whom is a better shooter than the player he replaced in the Magic’s line-up … versus a relatively small and athletic team like Philadelphia.

While the 76ers had match-up advantages at different positions vs the Magic when Orlando played with its regular rotation in this series … this was not the case last night when the absences of D12 & C-Lee forced Stan Van Gundy to shift his players around.

The better team asserted its dominance last night, as the lesser team was unable to respond appropriately with adjustments of its own. 

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FINAL SCORE: ROCKETS 92, Blazers 76
Complete Game Info

When Brandon Roy injured his left knee in the 1st half of last night’s game, it spelled curtains for Portland. The Blazers are a terrific young team that will soon become a force to be reckoned with in the Western Conference but with their ’superstar’ functioning at less than 100%, they are simply not yet ready to step up and win an elimination game on the road, especially, minus a 2nd important player on their team [i.e. Martell Webster]. Houston was the better team last night and will present a formidable challenge for the LA Lakers in Round 2.

No one likes to see an NBA player sustain a serious injury of any kind.

Magic PG Nelson has torn labrum in right shoulder

However … with Mikael Pietrus [G-F] and Keith Bogans [G-F] now healthy, Orlando should use:

* JJ Redick, as their Starting PG 
* Anthony Johnson, as their primary Back-up PG [in his current role], and
* Courtney Lee, as their 3rd-string PG

since the following line-up is still plenty good enough to get the Magic to, at least, the Eastern Conference semi-finals this season.

STARTERS

1 - JJ Redick
2 - Mikael Pietrus
3 - Hedo Turkoglu
4 - Rashard Lewis
5 - Dwight Howard

KEY BENCH SUBS

1 - Anthony Johnson
2 - Courtney Lee
3 - Keith Bogans
4 - Tony Battie
5 - Marcin Gortat

RESERVES

4 - Brian Cook
5 - Adonal Foyle

EXTRAS

Jameer Nelson [injured]
Mike Wilks [injured]
Jeremy Richardson

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If he’s ever going to become a truly serviceable player in the NBA, at some point in his career, JJ Redick [6-4, 190] will need to adapt successfully to the Point Guard position … and, there’s no time like the present for him to accomplish this specific goal.

Otis Smith, Dave Twardzik, Stan Van Gundy and JJ Redick … the ball is your hands and the shot clock is ticking.

——————

NOTE: Option B - The Magic could always try to acquire a player like Blake Ahearn from the San Antonio Spurs or a veteran like Troy Hudson.