khandor’s sports blog

Prior to January 30, 2011 the Pacers’ W-L Record was 17-27/.386.

After firing Jim O’Brien, however, the Pacers immediately began to play much better basketball.

Conventional wisdom says that this immediate uptick in performance was simply a temporary upsurge which typically occurs for a relatively short time-period, before regressing to the mean, based on the over-riding abilities of the players on their roster, rather than the abilities of their newly appointed head coach [i.e. Frank Vogel].

Then, when the NBA Trade Deadline came and went …

“Indiana Was Not Able to Get It All Together,” Says Grizzlies Owner About Failed OJ Mayo Trade

UPDATE: Larry Bird on Failed Trade: Deal Pulled Off the Table with Two Minutes to Go

with a failed effort to complete a three-team trade with the Memphis Grizzlies and the New Orleans Hornets which reportedly would have:

Cost Them

- Josh McRoberts/PF [starter]
- Brandon Rush/OG [back-up]
- Solomon Jones/PF-C [back-up]

while,

Netting Them

- OJ Mayo/PG-OG ['quasi' starter]

the Pacers subsequently crashed down to earth in their last 8 games:

and are now, supposedly, experiencing a variety of internal problems:

Larry Bird Criticizes His Players: “We’re Just Not Getting the Effort”

that have caused their team to fail to compete on a game-to-game basis.

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Looking closely at what has happened with the Pacers this season, and especially since the events of February 24, 2011 …

Is a simple case of regression to the mean really what has caused this team to lose 7 of their last 8 games?

Mike Dunleavy’s Game Log for the 2010-2011 Season

PART I, Games played from October 27, 2010 to January 30, 2011 => 17-27
PART II, Games played from January 31 to February 23, 2011 => 9-3
PART III, Games played since February 24, 2011 => 1-7

Or, is there another equally simple but, possibly, even MORE plausibe explanation for this?

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When an otherwise solid NBA team – i.e. based on the relative quality of its player personnel - experiences a sudden and major decline in performance, it is frequently attributable to the absence of one [or more] key player[s] from their line-up, who is [are] primarily responsible for creating and minimizing a slew of individual mis-match advantages for their team when playing against average-to-above-average-to-very-good opponents.

As far as the Pacers are concerned, Mike Dunleavy is, in fact, this type of player and this corner would simply suggest that:

#1. Indiana has a much improved chance to play the type of game it wants to play under the direction of Frank Vogel … and win! … when it has a 6-9, 230 lb, relatively agile, multi-dimensional OG, like Mike Dunleavy, in its starting line-up, beside:

PG, Darren Collison [6-0, 160]
OG,
SF, Danny Granger [6-9, 228]
PF, Josh McRoberts [6-10, 240]
C, Roy Hibbert [7-2, 278]

[with a supporting cast of AJ Price, TJ Ford, Lance Stephenson, Brandon Rush, Dahntay Jones, Paul George, James Posey, Tyler Hansbrough, Jeff Foster and Solomon Jones] 

than it does when forced to play without him against the likes of Utah, Phoenix, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Houston and Philadelphia;

and,

#2. When Indiana tips-off against the Raptors later-on this evening, it should come as no surprise at all to see the Pacers get back in the W column, since some combination of Brandon Rush [6-6, 210], Dahntay Jones [6-6, 210], Lance Stephenson [6-5, 210] and Paul George [ 6-8, 210] should be more than capable of competing effectively, at the OG position, against Toronto’s troika of DeMar DeRozan [6-7, 220], Sonny Weems [6-6, 203] and Leandro Barbosa [6-3, 202].

Now that the Indiana Pacers have finally relieved Jim O’Brien of his head coach responsibilities, they should be able to qualify for the playoffs this season, if Frank Vogel uses the following rotation:

The primary reason the Pacers have under-achieved thus far this season was the inability of their former head coach to settle upon a consistent rotation that could maximize their collective strengths [i.e. Quality Depth, overall, at the OG and SF positions] and minimize their collective weaknesses [i.e. The lack of Interior Defense provided by their Bigs, beyond Roy Hibbert; and, poor Defense, in general, at the back-up PG and OG positions].

When the players on the Pacers’ roster are actually used in a sound way, they are highly capable of performing like a playoff calibre team in a relatively weak Eastern Conference.  

Related:

The Indiana Pacers and The Glory Days of Fall

Although the Indiana Pacers [10-10/.500] are one of the most improved teams in the NBA, so far, this season – i.e. last year, at the 20 game mark, the Pacers’ W-L record was 7-13/.400 – in reality, they should be even better than their record to-date indicates.

Q1. How come, you ask?

A1. Primarily … because, as an in-game tactician, their head coach [i.e. Jim O'Brien] – all too often - leaves a great deal to be desired.

Exhibit A

If you look at this specific video clip of highlights, from last night’s at-the-buzzer loss to the Bucks, in Milwaukee, you should be able to see exactly which set of 5 players each team had on the floor during the final possession of the game.

For Milwaukee:

Jennings/PG, Salmons/OG, Mbah A Moute/SF, Ilyasova/PF, and Bogut/C

For Indiana:

Collison/PG, Rush/OG, Granger/SF, Foster/PF, and C/Hibbert

precipitating the following Individual Match-ups:

Collison/PG vs Jennings/PG
Rush/OG vs Salmons/OG
Hibbert/C vs Mbah A Moute/SF [inbound passer]
Granger/PF vs Ilyasova/PF
Foster/PF vs Bogut/C

as the Bucks ran their set play – i.e. a simple cross screen then back screen action involving Jennings [screener], Salmons [screen user-1] and Bogut [screen user-2] – from the left sideline in their front-court.

While it makes a great deal of “basketball sense” for the Pacers to use Roy Hibbert [7-2] as the inbounds defender [i.e. taking advantage of his "height" and "reach" vs Mbah A Moute], in this situation, it makes very little sense to have Jeff Foster [6-11 and "savvy", but with a limited "reach" and overall "athleticism"] matched-up vs Andrew Bogut [7-0], especially, when:

i. The Bucks’ center is initially positioned at the Top Of The Key [i.e. where he is poised to set a stationary screen for Ilyasova and, then, use a back screen from Jennings, in order to get to the basket himself];

and,

ii. Your team has superior defensive players on the bench – e.g. Solomon Jones/C [significantly more athletic], or James Posey/SF [also highly experienced] – who are better suited to check Mr. Bogut, in this specific situation, given the time & score.

Although Jeff Foster is a solid, veteran Big Man, who has seen every defensive situation imaginable, over the course of his 12 seasons in the NBA … given his limited use this season, and the fact that he was not used in this game between the 42.0 second mark of the 3rd quarter [Ind 79, Mil 78] and the 0.5 second mark of the 4th quarter [Ind 95, Mil 95] … he was NOT the correct defensive match-up for the Pacers to use on the final possession of the 4th quarter.

i.e. Scenario 1 – If O’Brien wanted to go with a veteran player vs Bogut, then, he should have used James Posey – i.e who was last “subbed into” the game at the 2:33 mark of the 4th quarter and was the player ”subbed out” in favour of Jeff Foster - even though he is under-sized vs Bogut, since there was no time available for a post-up situation. Scenario 2 – If O’Brien wanted to go with the best physical match-up vs Bogut, then, he should have used Solomon Jones – i.e. who did not play in this game after the 2:13 mark of the 2nd quarter, in spite of having an individual ”stat line” which read as follows: FGM-FGA/2-3, Pts/4, Rebs/2, Diff/-3, and MP/6.

Despite the fact that certain ”stats gurus” might like to suggest that the “real effects” of a particular head coach’s work, in the NBA, are highly over-rated … or that certain coaches are actually “worth” a specific number of wins per season, based on a statitistical measure which tracks individual player performance, related to that team’s overall number of wins … the simple fact of the matter is that … this is not the case at all, when you examine closely just how many individual games are lost, within a given season, by the one person who is actually responsible for deciding which set of 5 players are on the court together for their team at any specific point in time – relative to his counterpart for the opposition – and the very “real effects” the outcomes of these games have on their team’s place in the final standings. 

In this regard, Jim O’Brien is now 0-1, this season, according to yours truly.

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Related:

Buzzer beater breakdown

Indiana doesn’t protect the rim, gives up the game winner with 0.5 left

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 15 – vs Indiana [Tue Nov 24]

Even though the Raptors do not have an individual match-up advantage versus the Pacers in this specific game, they should still be able to get the W. Given the uncertain status of Mike Dunleavy [i.e. still recovering from knee surgery], it’s prudent to take a “wait-and-see approach” to Indiana this season. Jim O’Brien is a much more experienced coach than Jay Triano … but, he is not beyond making specific moves in a particular game which are somewhat-to-highly questionable that can jeopardize his own troops chances of winning. Facing the possibility of falling to 5-10 on the season, with a home-court loss to a middle-of-the-pack team in the EC, the Raptors should be highly energized for this game.

Raptors expected W-L Record: W, 6-9

Pacers’ Ford handling his demotion like a pro
T.J. Ford has been in this position before. He knows from his experience with the Toronto Raptors that complaining won’t get him far.

That’s why the Indiana Pacers point guard is taking the high road after his recent demotion. Pacers coach Jim O’Brien replaced Ford with Jarrett Jack at point guard against Charlotte on Saturday. Ford is taking it in stride, and handling the situation with professionalism.

“I know how to handle this situation better than I did in the past,” said Ford, who was involved in a point guard controversy with the Raptors last season. “It’s not a big issue to me. Just do what you’re supposed to do, whether they put you in the game or not. It’s your job to be ready and be prepared for whatever happens.

“I’m not a person that asks questions or reasons why certain things happen. He’s the coach and he has the right to make whatever adjustments he wants.”

O’Brien plans to keep Jack in the starting lineup for the time being. If Saturday was any indication, Jack is doing his best to put a stranglehold on the position.

Jack had 31 points on 13-of-14 shooting to go with six rebounds, two assists and just one turnover in 32 minutes.

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If TJ Ford is willing to accept that his proper role for a High End Team in the NBA is that of a Change-of-pace Back-up PG … it says here that he will flourish during the rest of his career.

TJ Ford has always had the talent to succeed in a major way, within this specific role. However, if he now has the Right Attitude to go with it, the Pacers will have set themselves up nicely to take a significant step up the Eastern Conference standings next season, by making this shift, as the combination of [Jarrett] Jack and Ford [in that order] could well be the best in the league.

Overall … yet another positive step in the gradual rebuilding process that Larry Bird is implementing with the Pacers. 

When there are 8 teams in the Eastern Conference separated in the standings by only 4.5 games, between the 7th and 14th positions, at the half-way point of the regular season schedule, it speaks to the parity which exists today in the NBA.

The fact is …

There is very little tangible separation between any of these teams, whether they fall into the Middle-of-the-Pack or the Low End categories.

Injuries, coaching decisions and the different managerial moves which each team makes in-season will determine [i] which ones qualify for the playoffs this spring and/or [ii] become a likely candidate for substantial improvement heading towards next season and beyond.  

Mike Wells has a solid article today on what it means to be Rasho Nesterovic, hard at-work, in the NBA.

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Litte-known Nesterovic plays key role in offense

[from a teammate]

“He’s what you call a good pro,” said point guard T.J. Ford, who is in his third season as Nesterovic’s teammate. He’s been in the league for a long time. He carries himself the way a professional should. He’s a hard worker. He’s just a smart player. He doesn’t have a big name. He never has. But if you ask around the NBA, they know he’s a solid player.”

[from his coach]

[Jim] O’Brien stopped a practice during the first week of training camp and told his team, “Get the ball to Rasho and good things will happen.”

“I would say his basketball IQ,” O’Brien said when asked to name Nesterovic’s best attribute. “I think he understands the game of basketball. He understands in particular what we’re trying to accomplish offensively. He understands the strengths of his teammates. He understands the weaknesses of his teammates. He’s a very, very good communicator.”

[from the man, himself]

He doesn’t waste time breaking down the box score. You won’t catch him patting himself on the back for what he did right or grimacing after a woeful shooting night.

“I don’t like it,” he said. “There are a lot of guys that play for just stats. You don’t want to play for just box scores.”

“During the game, you just try to make every pass good, every shot good, every defense good,” he said. “You are just in the flow of the game.”

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Tells you all you need to know about a player whose team has never missed the playoffs, over the course of his 10-year career, and what it takes to develop a Reputation for Success, in the best basketball League in the World.

To one of the Good Guys: Peace, Brother.

In the aftermath of their trade with the Raptors, Pacers’ President of Basketball Operations, Larry Bird, expressed his feelings about the type of Leadership he is looking for with his current team.

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Bird says team poised to fill leadership void
“Just because you make the most money doesn’t mean you’re the leader,” Bird said last month. “A lot of guys didn’t want to step on toes. Not only here, but other places I’ve been at. They’d say, the guy makes the most money, that means he’s the leader. That’s not the case. The leader comes from the guy doing the right thing, the guy that’s going to be there every day at practice, the guy that plays through pain without complaining. They do the necessary things to prepare themselves.

“I think the situation you have here, you had one guy making a lot of money and everybody just took it as he’s going to be leading us, and in some instances that was true. But I think more now that since it has opened you’ll see a number of guys stepping up.

“Really, you just need one voice. Usually your best leaders are ones that don’t say anything, they just play, prepare and do the right things.”

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Well, today … it says here that Larry Legend has now got his man …

Broken teeth, not broken spirit
“As professional athletes, we’ve bled throughout our careers,” he said. “We’ve broken bones, torn ligaments, busted teeth. It’s part of the game. It’s kind of fun when you do it, and you actually win.”

Granger’s refusal to leave the game after the collision impressed his teammates and coaches.

He made the play with the Pacers ahead by 16 in the fourth quarter. He stayed in the game.

“That one play epitomized what we want from our leaders — toughness, refusing to get knocked out of the game because you’ve lost your choppers,” Pacers coach Jim O’Brien said. “That was just great.”

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After a period of significant upheaval, the Pacers have now righted their ship … at last … and will be in playoff contention this season.

Someone with this team knows exactly what he is doing.

Donyell Marshall is set to join Sixers.

Since the 2005-2006 season, the 76ers have undergone a thorough make-over … divesting themselves of Jim O’Brien (Head Coach), Allen Iverson (G), Chris Webber (C) and their former GM (Billy King), in favour of Mo Cheeks, Andre Miller, Thaddeus Young and Ed Stefanski, respectively.

This off-season … by re-signing their own key Free Agents (i.e. Louis Williams and Andre Iguodala) and bringing in a group of solid new players (i.e. Elton Brand, Royal Ivey, Theo Ratliff and Marshall) … the 76ers have attempted to push forward into a new stratosphere, in the NBA, as one of the top four teams in the Eastern Conference … alongside the Boston Celtics and the Detroit Pistons.

How far can the Sixers go this year?

If they can remain healthy … Philadelphia is now good enough to qualify for its second consecutive playoff berth and become a serious threat to advance to the EC semifinals.