khandor’s sports blog

For the benefit of both Raptors and Heat fans:

Enjoy! … what should prove to be a highly entertaining game.

PS. Is there any doubt, however, that the Heat have the “coolest” [baby, baby, baby] roster web page in the NBA today?

This past off season, when this corner consistently rated Miami as one of the few sure-fire playoff teams in the Eastern Conference this year … provided the Heat get a full season from D-Wade … there were many in the blogosphere who took exception and asked, incredulously,

“Huh? How come? … Their overall roster simply isn’t good enough to be put into THAT category. Is it?”

Well …

At this moment, there are only 5 undefeated teams in the NBA:

Boston [3-0], Orlando [3-0], Denver [3-0], Phoenix [3-0] and Miami [3-0].

Reasons Why the Miami Heat Will Succeed This Season 

A. Pat Riley [GM] really does know what he’s doing … and, “all things Heat” spring forth from him.

B. When all is said and done, several years from now, Erik Spoelstra is going to be recognized as a very solid NBA coach; see “A”, above, for further reference.

C. The late additions of Carlos Arroyo and Quentin Richardson are ”good fits” for what Miami needed this season to successfully bridge the gap until the 2010 off season arrives … when they will become significant players in the free agent marketplace; see “A”, above, for further reference. 

D.-Man is a legit MVP candidate, this year … as The Best Guard in the NBA not named Kobe Bryant.

E. The players on their roster this season, although NOT as “talented” overall as the other top squads in the Association, actually DO “fit together” in a way that should/will allow them to remain in the playoff race the whole year, and eventually earn 1 of the 8 coveted berths into the post-season, i.e. With the team culture in Miami, “The whole is usually greater than the sum of the parts,” see “A”, above, for further reference.

Building a championship calibre organization in the NBA isn’t always about performing “radical surgery” on your roster in the summer months.

———————————————

“The proof of the pudding is in the eating.” - Anonymous

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 13 – vs Mia [Fri Nov 20]

The first home game following a WC road trip can be a dangerous situation in the NBA. That said … the Raptors might be in dire need of winning this specific contest, given their poor early season W-L record. Miami, on the other hand, might be a few games above .500, on the strength of several home games early in the schedule, and coming into this one off a road loss at Atlanta, a Southwest Division rival. Although there is no defensive match-up on the Raptors roster capable of handling D-Wade effectively … who might well go for 40+ in this encounter … the front-court tandem of Bosh & Bargnani should be able to off-set this single major disadvantage. If the Dinos are going to remain in the playoff hunt this season, they will need to win games like this one, i.e. at home; without an individual match-up disadvantage. 

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 5-8

An accurate understanding of what exactly is going on these days in Raptorville is not arrived at easily for many of the team’s rabid fans who are active participants in the on-line hoops community. Amidst the general euphoria that has taken hold in the aftermath of last week’s seemingly stunning 4-team trade extravaganza with Dallas, Orlando and Memphis … which netted the Raptors:

* Hedo Turkoglu [F, Orlando, UFA]
* Antoine Wright [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season]
* Devean George [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season], and
* Preserved their right to use the Mid Level Exception [MLE], the Low Level Exception [LLE], and exercise their [Larry] Bird Rights towards resigning their own Unrestricted Free Agents [UFA]

at the expense of:

* Shawn Marion [Sign & Trade with Orlando, UFA]
* Kris Humphries [trade with Dallas; injured much of last season]
* Nathan Jawai [trade with Dallas; disabled much of last season]
* 2nd Round Draft Pick/2016 [trade with Dallas]
* Cash Considerations [trade with Dallas] 

The stark reality of this team’s current situation is perhaps best reflected in the bright lights of the following 5 observations:

PART ONE
The post-trade outlook for the Raptors which was first put together by “Dave” [nbaroundtable, Thu July 9], extolling the possible virtues:

Where do the Raptors go from here?

PART TWO
The specific comment which “Dave” then left in a different thread on his blog, later that same afternoon, indicating his actual thoughts on their chances to succeed with their current roster configuration:

———-

Four team trade: Shawn Marion to Dallas
2011/12

This is the Raptors fail safe option. When they fail, and they will fail, they need to have this option open to them and then use this option.

This means no extra contracts that last beyond two years. I will dislike pretty much any contract that goes beyond two seasons. As long as the contract is than two seasons, spending that money doesn’t bother me in the slightest.

Dead End

The Raptors are going nowhere, and they need a miracle to happen for this plan to have any chance of working out. The Raptors are going to run into [sic] dead end.

Now, it’s time just to sit back and let things play out. Things will not improve until Colangelo figures out Bargnani isn’t a cornerstone of this franchise … until that happens, there’s nothing else that can be done to put the Raptors on the right road.

The Raptors can’t get out of the corner that they’ve boxed themselves into, until Bargnani is moved on. Any aspirations for a title are on hold until this happens.

———-  

PART THREE
The specific comment which was made on this blog [July 11, 11:35 AM], by yours truly, that addressed the supposed “Qualitative Improvement” of the Raptors current roster pieces in comparison with last season’s end-of-year squad, pertaining to the question of:

———-

Which team made out best from 4-team trade?
IMO, the Raptors have made upgrades in certain areas thus far but it would be a mistake in judgment to assess this improvement as being “a lot better“, just yet:

No BEFORE ADV AFTER

1 Calderon = Calderon
2 Parker <– Wright … AP is significantly better
3 Marion = Turkoglu … Turkoglu is NOT significantly better
4 Bosh = Bosh
5 Bargnani = Bargnani
—————————-
6 Ukic = Ukic
7 Kapono –> DeRozan * … cyclical due to draft
8 Graham = George … Devean is NOT significantly better
9 Humphries = Evans … Reggie is NOT significantly better
10 O’Bryant –> Nesterovic … Rasho is much better!
—————————-
11 Douby = Delfino … is different but NOT much better
12 Mensah-Bonsu = Mensah-Bonsu
—————————-
13 Banks = Banks
14 Jawai ? Barnes … jury still out on Nathan
15 Voskuhl = O’Bryant

Those who are looking at these changes in an excessively positive light are the ones looking through rose-coloured spectacles.

———-

PART FOUR
The Shifting Player Personnel Chart that was constructed by yours truly yesterday:

which shows the drastic player changes that have happened with the Raptors for each of the past two seasons. 

PART FIVE
The glaring RED ALERT that was issued on Sunday by David Berri [i.e. noted economist, NBA "sage & soothsayer", author of The Wages of Wins Journal]:

Dashing Hope in Toronto
Not a Pretty Picture in Toronto

When we put the whole picture together, it appears the Raptors will employ the following starting line-up in 2009-10: Calderon (PG), Wright and/or DeRozan (SG), Turkoglu (SF), Bosh (PF), Bargnani [C].  Last season the NBA veterans in this line-up combined to produce fewer than 30 wins. So unless these players improve dramatically, or the team finds very productive players off the bench, it’s hard to see how this team improves dramatically.  And that’s true even if Delfino returns to Toronto (although if Evans returns to what we saw in the past there might be some hope this team can get past 40 wins).

All of this means that

1. Turkoglu will be seeing much more money in 2009-10, but probably far fewer wins.
2. Bargnani will also see much more money, but it seems unlikely he is ever going to produce many wins.
3. Bosh will see even more money after this next season, but if the Raptors don’t approach 45 or 50 wins (which seems likely) then it seems unlikely that the money Bosh is paid in the future is going to be paid by the Raptors.
4. So it looks likely the Raptors record performance in 2007-08 will stand for awhile.  In other words, if Bosh departs this team in 2010, then rebuilding will probably continue beyond 2009-10.
5. And this means — assuming the Raptors don’t make any major change to this team — the fans of the Raptors will keep paying money to see a team that’s not contending for a title.

———-

Experience says that when disparate individuals like:

1. “Dave” [nbaroundtable] … who combines statistics with Basketball Acumen;

2. khandor [that's me ] … who relies primarily on Basketball Acumen;

and,

3. David Berri … who relies heavily on a statistical approach to the analysis of on-court production for players in the NBA;

actually arrive at a similar conclusion … which is essentially opposed to the GENERAL CONSENSUS that exists in Raptorville today … it portends of difficult times ahead for this team in the coming season.

In the best interests of the franchise, let’s hope that all three of these “stray birds” are eventually proven to be wrong in their assessment of the team. 

The QUESTION is … for, let’s say, approximately $6.4 M … 

What two NBA franchises would Allen Iverson, possibly, be the best fit with at this stage of his career?

[i.e. based strictly on their respective player rosters and regardless of any Salary Cap/Luxury Tax restraints on a 1 year contract]

SCENARIO ONE

If the Cavaliers are truly serious about trying to win the 2009-2010 NBA Championship, then Cleveland needs to ratchet up its Offense with a line-up that looks like this:

STARTERS
PG - Allen Iverson [UFA, high cost]
OG - Anthony Parker [UFA, medium cost]
SF - Lebron James
PF - Anderson Varejao
C - Shaquille O’Neal

KEY SUBS
PG/OG - Mo Williams or Daniel Gibson
OG/SF - Keith Bogans [UFA, low cost]
SF/PF - JJ Hickson
C - Zydrunas Ilgauskas 

———-

SCENARIO TWO

If the Heat are truly serious about trying to reach the 2009-2010 NBA Finals, then Miami needs to ratchet up its Offense with a line-up like this is:

STARTERS
PG - Allen Iverson [UFA, high cost]
OG - Dwyane Wade
SF - Jamario Moon [UFA, low cost]
PF - Udonis Haslem
C - Jermaine O’Neal  

KEY SUBS
PG - Mario Chalmers
OG - Daequan Cook
SF - Michael Beasley
PF - Joel Anthony
C -  Chris Mihm [UFA, low cost]

———-

For a single season … a move like that would still leave Miami and/or Cleveland in the free agent sweepstakes expected to take place next summer [i.e. 2010] … while giving their respective teams a definite boost this year, in an effort to reach their specific goal.

Are either of these two situations likely to occur next month?

Hmmmm …

[Probably not ... although either one would certainly be very interesting to see materialize this summer.]

It seems as though a certain segment within Raptorville is, once again, suffering from grotesque “delusions of grandeur”, regarding the actual ability and hoped for improvement of Andrea Bargnani [C, 7-0, 250, 2006 No. 1 Overall Selection] this off-season.

i.e. According to Doug Smith, in a segment on PrimeTime Sports [FAN590] yesterday, a legitimate case can be made that Bargnani might qualify as the 2nd Best Center in the Eastern Conference [EC] over the course of the 2009-2010 season.

The following list contains the names of the 15 Centers expected to play this position for their current teams, in the EC next season:

Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland Cavaliers [1]
Kendric Perkins, Boston Celtics [2]
Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic [3]
Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks [4]
Jermaine O’Neal, Miami Heat [5]
Samuel Dalembert, Philadelphia 76ers [6]
Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls [7]
Rasheed Wallace, Detroit Pistons [8]
Jeff Foster, Indiana Pacers [9]
Emeka Okafor, Charlotte Bobcats [10]
Brook Lopez, New Jersey Nets [11]
Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee Bucks [12]
Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors [13]
David Lee, New York Knicks [14]
Brendan Haywood, Washington [15]

————————————————————-

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————————————————————-

Although yours truly usually finds very little to agree upon with host Bob McCown that is not the case in this instance.

According to these eyes, whoever happens to agree with Doug Smith, in this regard, is quite likely to be suffering from a form of Post-Concussion Syndrome … as there are, at least, 7 players who should be listed ahead of Il Mago on a depth chart of this sort looking forward just 1 season.

Araujo pick set off chain reaction
I‘ve always considered the drafting of Rafael Araujo the Raptors’ original sin. It set off a chain reaction the team has never really recovered from.

Araujo, as every Raptors fan knows, was picked No.8 overall by Rob Babcock, who promised on draft night that the big Brazilian was “Not a stiff.”

Well, he was a stiff. One with small hands and short arms and - quite literally - no upside.

Missing at No.8 isn’t ordinarily the end of the world. It happens. And it says A LOT about the NBA that having the chance to pick the eighth - or in this year’s draft - the ninth best player in the world in a given year carries with it no certainty of success.

Tough league.

But the 2004 draft had its share of good players. One of them - Andre Iguodala - was taken ninth by the Philadelphia 76ers, as every Raptors fan knows.

Which is the problem: It’s not so much that Araujo was a bust, it’s that Iguodala represents exactly and - short of Kobe/LeBron/Wade - I mean exactly what the franchise needs.

He slashes. He defends other wings. He’s a one-man fastbreak. He’s a passable spot-up shooter. He’s very good playmaker and passer. He’s relatively affordable, at $12-million a year, which is pretty good value for a Tier 1A wing player in the NBA.

But you know all this.

Still, I’ve been thinking about Iguodala as I’ve [been] watching Mickael Pietrus with the Orlando Magic.

———-

In contrast, what this corner sees is that the specific time-line … i.e. Chain Reaction … for the de-evolution of the Raptors looks like this:

* Fired Glen Grunwald, Apr 1, 2004
* Hired Rob Babcock, Jun 7, 2004
* Drafted Rafael Araujo [No. 8], Jun 24 2004
* Hired Sam Mitchell, Jun 29, 2004
* Traded Vince Carter, Dec 17, 2004 [for exactly what, in return?]
* Fired Babcock, Jan 26, 2006
* Hired Bryan Colangelo, Feb 28, 2006
* Drafted Andrea Bargnani [No. 1], Jun 28, 2006
* Traded Charlie Villanueva for TJ Ford, Jul 1, 2006
* Traded for Carlos Delfino, Jun 15, 2007
* Signed Jason Kapono, Jul 11, 2007
* Traded TJ Ford & Rasho Nesterovic & No. 17 Draft Pick for Jermaine O’Neal & No. 41 Draft Pick, Jun 26, 2008
* Signed Hassan Adams, Jul 8, 2008
* Signed Roko Ukic, Jul 16, 2008
* Signed Will Solomon, Jul 28, 2008
* Bought out Jorge Garbajosa, Aug 10, 2008
* Fired Mitchell, Dec 3, 2008

33-49/.402, 14th place in the Eastern Conference

———-

April 1, 2004 [and, then, Dec 17] will live-on, in infamy … as a sort of very real, cruel JOKE … in the history of this franchise, purpetrated by Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment [MLSE, i.e. Richard Peddie & Larry Tanenbaum]. 

When you look at these 4 post-game interviews from last night’s Tor/PHI match-up …

it is plain to see that a different “attitude” has now settled in amongst the current group of Raptors, which no longer resembles the squad that functioned as a unit, through good times and in bad for Toronto, during the tenure of much-maligned former Head Coach, Sam Mitchell.

This corner is NOT suggesting that this “new” attitude has arisen recently as a by-product of Sam Mitchell’s dismissal, back in December, and/or the specific role Interim Head Coach, Jay Triano, has played since then.

On the contrary, actually.

According to these eyes … this “new” change is one which has only just come to light in the last few days, coinciding with:

* The team’s current 6-game losing streak
* It’s ever-dwindling hopes to make the playoffs
* The departures of Jermaine O’Neal [to Miami], Jamario Moon [to Miami], Will Solomon [to Sactown] and Nathan Jawai [to the NBDL]
* The arrivals of Shawn Marion [from Miami], Marcus Banks [from Miami] and Patrick O’Bryant [from Boston].

These are the remaining games on the Raptors’ regular season schedule:

Unless there’s a dramatic re-focus on what it means to be a REAL Team and what it takes to play together like a REAL Team should … i.e. With [i] Cohesive Team Defense, [ii] Shared Team Offense, and a [iii] Unified Battle On the Boards … there will not be many more W’s to be found this season in a toxic wasteland like the Raptors’ locker-room was last night.

 ————————————————————

FINAL SCORE: Tor 106, PHI 115
Complete Game Info

FWIW …

There were two dramatic change points in this game, from the Raptors’ perspective:

CHANGE POINT I - during the first 06:10 of the 2nd quarter

When the Raptors went from being tied on the scoreboard, 19-19, to being down by double-digits with the following 5-Man Units on the floor:

-5 = Ukic/PG + Kapono/OG + Graham/SF + Marion/PF + Bosh/C

-4 = Ukic/PG-OG + Banks/OG-PG + Graham/SF + Marion/PF + Bosh/C

-1 = Ukic/PG-OG + Banks/OG-PG + Parker/SF + Bosh/PF + Bargnani/C

CHANGE POINT II - from 07:03-04:41 of the 4th quarter

When the Raptors saw their comeback efforts completely nullified … as their opponents re-established their once 18-pt lead during this span, after seeing it cut to just 9-pts … with the following 5-Man Units on the floor together:

-3 = Ukic/PG + Graham/OG √ + Mensah-Bonsu/SF √ + Marion/PF √ + Bosh/C √

-6 = Calderon/PG + Parker/OG + Marion/SF √ + Bosh/PF √ + Bargnani/C

——————

LEGEND:
Bold - Player Subbed into the game; Italics - Player Shifted to a new position; √ - Solid Rebounder, at this position.

FINAL SCORE: TOR 101, Uta 109
Complete Game Info

These are the different 5-Man Units which the Jazz and Raptors chose to play in the 4th quarter of yesterday’s game:

This is how the Minutes Played [MP], at specific positions, broke down for each player:

Utah

Brevin Knight/PG, 01:43
Jarron Collins/C, 02:20
Matt Harpring/PF, 02:20
———————————–
Deron Williams/PG, 10:17
Kyle Korver/OG, 12:00
Andrei Kirilenko/SF, 12:00
Paul Millsap/PF, 09:40
Mehmet Okur/C, 09:40

Toronto

Jose Calderon/PG, 09:29
Anthony Parker/PG, 02:31
Anthony Parker/OG, 05:46
Jason Kapono/OG, 07:14
Joey Graham/SF, 07:37
Shawn Marion/PF, 03:39
Shawn Marion/SF, 03:23
Chris Bosh/C, 03:39
Chris Bosh/PF, 08:21 
Andrea Bargnani/C, 08:21

————————–

Key Utah Possession Outcomes during the final 01:35 of the 4th Q

01:35 Deron Williams Made 22-ft Jumpshot [P & R/P isolation vs Switch by Bargnani/checking MIllsap] 

01:00 Deron Williams Maked 1 FT [fouled by Bargnani, P & R/P isolation vs Switch by Bargnani/checking Kirilenko]

00:31 Mehmet Okur Made Layup [P & R isolation vs Switch by Bosh/checking Okur and Bargnani failed to Rotate-to-Help Calderon vs Okur]

—————————–

If the Raptors would have used a combination of the following 6 players, instead:

Calderon/PG
Parker/OG or PG [solid Rebounder/Defender at the PG spot]
Graham/OG or SF [solid Rebounder/Defender at the OG or SF spot]
Marion/PF or SF [solid Rebounder/Defender at the PF or the SF spot]
Mensah-Bonsu/PF [solid Rebounder/Defender at the PF spot]
Bosh/C [solid Rebounder/Defender at the C spot]

during the final 06:00 minutes, the outcome would have been different for the home team.

As long as the Raptors continue to assemble a roster of players like this and then use them in the way they are right now … which is how they’ve operated for much of this disappointing season to-date … they will continue to come up short on a consistent basis against the High End Teams in this league.

Despite what others might think … the Raptors are NOT repeatedly losing games this season on account of how Jose Calderon and/or Chris Bosh are performing at the Point Guard spot and the Center position, respectively.

They are losing games on account of what’s happening on the floor when:

1. Chris Bosh is NOT at the Center position;

2. Jose Calderon, or Anthony Parker, is NOT at the Point Guard position; and,

3. Jason Kapono is NOT sitting on the bench … beside Andrea Bargnani [with Roko Ukic, Marcus Banks, Jake Voskuhl, Jermaine O'Neal, Will Solomon, Hassan Adams, and Nathan Jawai], from an effective Rebounding & Team Defense perspective.

—————————-

PS. FWIW, you can decide for yourself who you think SHOULD bare Most of The Responsibility for this … i.e. Sam Mitchell, Jay Triano or BRYAN COLANGELO.

FINAL SCORE: TORONTO 100, Miami 108
Complete Game Info

Despite what certain Raptors fans might want choose to believe, the reason Toronto lost last night’s game was not due to the less-than-stellar play of Jose Calderon [or the inability of Chris Bosh to perform as a Franchise Player should, i.e. making a series of clutch plays coming down the stretch of a close game].

As has been detailed in this space plenty of times before … Rebounding and Defense - specifically, FROM THE 3 OTHER PLAYERS ON THE COURT BESIDE BOSH & CALDERON - are the Raptors major short-comings, on a consistent basis … not the sometimes erratic Offensive production levels of their two most important players [i.e. Bosh & Calderon].

Until this team commits to:

* Playing at least 2 more Solid Rebounder/Defenders in a 5-Man Unit with Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon

and

* Playing at least 3 Solid Rebounder/Defenders together, in a 5-Man Unit anytime Jose Calderon is off the floor

… it is not going to be able to sustain a consistent effort for 48 minutes against a High End team in this league.

When Eric Spoelstra called Time-out at the 09:40 mark of the 4th quarter and substituted Dwyane Wade [42 Pts; 74.0 FG%; including 3 Treys and only 5 FTs] and Mario Chalmers back into the game … Jay Triano HAD to respond accordingly and re-insert some combination of:

A. Shawn Marion
B. Chris Bosh
C. Anthony Parker
D. Shawn Marion & Chris Bosh
E. Shawn Marion & Anthony Parker
F. Chris Bosh & Anthony Parker
G. Shawn Marion, Chris Bosh & Anthony Parker

to ensure that the Raptors had enough [i.e. at least 3] Rebounder/Defenders on the floor, at that crucial juncture of the game, to cope effectively with a DYNAMIC player like Dwyane Wade.

Instead of doing this, however … when Jay Triano left Jose Calderon, Jason Kapono and Andrea Bargnani on together [none of whom should be classified as a Solid Rebounder] with Joey Graham and Pops Mensah-Bonsu [who are both solid Rebounders], it was The Beginning of the End for the Raptors last night, as the Heat pumped its lead back up to 10 points.

Then, when Coach Spoelstra substituted Udonis Haslem back into the game, at the 07:09 mark, and Coach Triano responded, by replacing Joey Graham and Jason Kapono with Chris Bosh and Anthony Parker, leaving the Raptors with only 2 Solid Rebounders on the floor again, it was Time To Turn Out The Lights … as the Heat then increased its lead to 15 points, from which the Dinos were never able to fully recover, thereafter, even though they did eventually go to a solid 5-Man Unit which included 3 Solid Rebounder/Defenders [at their respective positions] at the 06:05 mark [i.e. PG/A-Parker, SF/Marion, and PF/Bosh].

It’s highly questionable personnel decisions like these, made by the Raptors’ President/General Manager and/or their Head Coach that consistently put this squad squarely behind the 8-ball, and eventually leads to the unhappiness/frustration of their best players [e.g. Wince Carter, Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon].