khandor’s sports blog

Every summer, since he was appointed to the position of President/GM for the Toronto Raptors, Bryan Colangelo has “wheeled and dealed”, in an effort to create a player roster which he believes is capable of competing effectively in the Eastern Conference AND - according to what he says each off season - making significant headway, long term, in the standings.

In reality, however, his series of moves each summer have turned out … in the end … to be wrong:

2006-2007, 47-35 [achieved by adding a series of 'stop-gap' players]

2007-2008, 41-41

2008-2009, 33-49

2009-2010, 40-42

and, basically:

1. Have improved the future of the franchise very little, if at all;

while,

2. Keeping the team’s fanbase thoroughly ‘engaged’;

and,

3. Consistently making huge sums of money for Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment Ltd.

This is what the Raptors have now done, since the 2009-2010 regular season ended:

[including the proposed trades which have been reported by the Arizona Republic]

- acquired Ed Davis [No. 13 Selection in the 2010 NBA Draft]
- acquired Solomon Alabi [No. 50 Selection in the 2010 NBA Draft]
- re-signed Amir Johnson
- added PJ Carlesimo as an assistant coach
- acquired Linas Kleiza [if Denver declines to match Toronto's offer sheet]
- traded Chris Bosh [to Miami]
- re-acquired one 1st Round Draft Pick [2011, Toronto's own selection]
- acquired one 1st Round Draft Pick [2011, Miami's selection]
- acquired a TPE [from Miami]
- traded Hedo Turkoglu? [to Phoenix]
- acquired Leandro Barbosa and Dwayne Jones? [from Phoenix]
- traded Dwayne Jones? [to Charlotte]
- acquired Boris Diaw with the acquired TPE? [from Charlotte] 

Has your head stopped spinning yet?

To this point, this is the response from the team’s rabid fanbase,

e.g. Hedo Turkoglu traded to Suns for Leandro Barbosa.

Which is to say … more-or-less … the giving of tacit approval.

———————————–

Q1. In that vortex of opinion, however, who should you pay close attention to when it comes to properly evaluating what these latest moves might mean for the Raptors going forward?

A1. The Jul 12, 2010 at 7:15 am comment belongs to yertu damkule:

———————————–

but, as it stands right now, the only question i have is: ‘does Bryan Colangelo understand what ‘rebuild’ actually means? this seems like just another patch job – middling players acquired who will have no long-term connection to the franchise and who will only ‘steal’ PT from those who do figure to be long-term fixtures.

of course, i guess we have to appreciate the fact that he’s ridding the team of turk, who would have been, IMO, locker room poison & a guy you just don’t want the young guys having anything to do with. still…part of me was kinda/sorta hoping that hedo would still be with the team in the fall, would come in with a changed attitude & play himself into a desireable commodity, so he could be moved for something of a little more substance than barbosa. all things considered, though, thumbs up. he (barbosa) ain’t the player he once was, but he was one of the few suns whose game didn’t seem entirely dependant on nash – he’s a capable backup PG/SG…great at neither, decent at both, but his speed & finishing ability is appealing. i don’t think he’s a great defender by any stretch, but he’s got a huge wingspan & more than enough quickness to disrupt passing lanes at the top of the key & to prevent the easy ‘turning of the corner’ by the ball-handler. the biggest concern is that he’s no longer an average shooter from distance, and that’s something that is really gonna hurt TO this year. they don’t really have ‘spread-the-floor’ guys in the backcourt & wing spots…i guess if they hold onto jose, and the kleiza deal goes through they’ll have a couple…and there’s always bargs.

as for diaw – i’ll hold off comment until it gets finalized. if yyma is correct, and it’s both diaw & chandler coming back (not sure how that would work, numbers-wise), it becomes a completely different deal.

as happy as i am about turk leaving, i’m still scratching my head over how these moves help the team find some kind of direction. they’re clearly not rebuilding – these are treadmill moves, designed to placate the mob, keep the raps ‘contending’ (for a playoff spot), etc. of course, they weren’t exactly gonna be rebuilding with turk either, so who cares?

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In this instance, his voice is the one of reason.

After spending 7 seasons with the Raptors franchise, what Chris Bosh finally realized last week, sadly, is that the Toronto sports franchises owned by MLSE are little more than intricately woven ‘dramas’, conceived and operated for the purpose of ‘profiteering’ in a highly specific way:

———————————–

Macbeth, Act 5 Scene 5

MACBETH
Wherefore was that cry?The queen, my lord, is dead.To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day
To the last syllable of recorded time,
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

SEYTON

MACBETH
She should have died hereafter;
There would have been a time for such a word.

———————————–

Are you truly aware of just how much money the owner of a laundromat is capable of making, at your expense, if you are willing to simply sit in a chair each week and watch as the ‘wash, rinse and dry’ cycle is repeated, ad infinitum? 

A pox on the house of MLSE! 

… for continuing to conduct its ‘business’ in this way, i.e re-shuffling the deck, yet again … with no real intention to put themselves in position to be able to contend for a league championship at some point in the not-too-distant future.

Kudos to Chris Bosh for finally getting out of this quagmire.

In all likelihood, given the collection of players and coaches on Toronto’s roster for next season:

[which might look like this in the next few days]

PG: Calderon, Jack and Banks
OG: Weems, Barbosa and Belinelli
SF: DeRozan and Kleiza
PF: Diaw [SF], Johnson, Davis, Evans and Dorsey
C: Bargnani and Alabi

Coaches: Triano, Carlesimo, Iavaroni, English, Nori and Hughes

the Raptors will be ’stuck’ firmly in the middle of the Eastern Conference …

Tier One

Boston, Orlando and Miami

Tier Two

Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Indiana, Milwaukee, New Jersey, New York, Philadelphia, Toronto and Washington

[NOTE: Tier Two will be further sub-divided as the off season moves along.]

‘competing’ for a mid-to-lower tier playoff position …

as a Treadmill Team, going nowhere fast.

Cha-ching!

———-

PS. FWIW, do not think for a minute that the Raptors are now done making personnel moves this summer. If nothing else, Bryan Colangelo has consistently shown himself to be a very ‘hard-working’ GM.

PART 1

When Chris Bosh spoke with the assembled media, in Toronto …

Chris Bosh’s post-season press conference [April 15, 2010]

… he made his intentions quite clear, with respect to:

1. His decision to declare for unrestricted free agency this summer;

2. His desire for a maximum contract;

3. His willingness to listen to the sales pitches of other teams

4. His willingness to re-sign with the Raptors after July 1, if the team does the right things in the interim to indicate that Toronto would, in fact, be the best place for him to continue his pro career, as an elite level player who is committed to [i] maximizing his ability, and [ii] trying to win the NBA championship

Q1. Has Chris Bosh done anything since that press conference to indicate that he has changed his mind about any of these 4 intentions? 

A1. No, he has not.

Q2. Have the Raptors done anything since that press conference to indicate that they are committed to building a championship calibre team in Toronto?

- retained Jay Triano, as their head coach
- retained Andrea Bargnani [C], as their No. 2 scorer [with Bosh]
- alienated Hedo Turkoglu, as their principal acquisition from last season
- added PJ Carlesimo, as a new assistant coach
- added Ed Davis [PF], as a 2010 1st Round Draft Pick/No. 13
- added Solomon Alabi [C], as a 2010 2nd Round Draft Pick/No. 50
- extended an olive branch to Hedo Turkoglu, as their No. 3 scorer [with Bosh]
- re-signed Amir Johnson [PF], as their own UFA

A2. No, they have not.

=====================

PART 2

i. Was the major weakness on last year’s Raptors team the poor performance of its front-court players?

[e.g. considering the play of Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Reggie Evans, Rasho Nesterovic, Patrick O'Bryant and Joey Dorsey] 

or,

ii. Was the major weakness on last year’s Raptors team the poor performance of its Point Guards?

[e.g. considering the play of Jose Calderon, Jarrett Jack and Marcus Banks]

or,

iii. Was the major weakness of last year’s Raptors team the poor performance of its wing players?

[e.g. DeMar DeRozan/1st-yr, Hedo Turkoglu, Antoine Wright/UFA, Sonny Weems/2nd-yr, and Marco Belinelli/3rd-yr]

==================

Unfortunately …

and despite the message which the team’s fans are being given by the Basketball Operations department of MLSE,

Raptors introduce Davis and Alabi at the Air Canada Centre

… it does not seem as though Bryan Colangelo has a solid grasp of where the team’s REAL problems are actually rooted [i.e. #1. The overall attitude and under-whelming performance of Andrea Bargnani, C; and, #2. Their current slate of less-than stellar wing players].

==================

PART 3

If Chris Bosh does not eventually re-sign with the Raptors, he will have made a sound basketball decision, based upon what the Raptors’ management team has shown him over the course of his 7 seasons in the NBA, including the personnel moves which they’ve made [and not made], thus far, this summer … if his primary goal is to compete for a league championship.

If Chris Bosh does eventually re-sign with the Raptors, he will have made a sound financial decision, based upon the fact that he can earn an additional $30.0 M more of guaranteed money from the Toronto Raptors, over the course of his 6-yr maximum contract.  

The next week, or so, is going to be very interesting, and should solidify what exactly Chris Bosh’s priorities actually are, both, as a person and an elite basketball player.

Unfortunately, the Toronto Raptors priorities have been established for quite some time already, as a profit-centered business operation.

Toronto Raptors [39-42] 111
DETROIT PISTONS [27-55] 97
Complete Game Info

PART 1 - The Twitter Effect

As soon as you read Charlie Villanueva’s tweet from yesterday afternoon …

———————————

Pistons’ Charlie Villanueva guarantees win against Raptors

“Guarantee win tonight, yeah I said it,” is a tweet that appeared on Villanueva’s account about 2:35 p.m. today.

———————————

you just knew that the Raptors would be good to go into Detroit last night and pummel the Pistons.

PART 2 - The Big Ben Effect

Although Ben Wallace/C has had a decent year, defensively, in his return to Detroit, it was rather comical to see the combinations of:

i. He and Jonas Jerebko
[-9 vs Bargnani/Johnson; +2 vs Bargnani/Turkoglu], or

ii. He and Charlie Villanueva
[-4 vs Bargnani/Johnson; -1 vs Bargnani/Turkoglu], or

iii. He and Tayshaun Prince
[-6 vs Bargnani/Johnson], or

iv. He and Jason Maxiell
[-6 vs Bargnani/Johnson]

attempt to guard a perimeter oriented C like Andrea Bargnani … who was shooting the ball well last night … and an energetic under-sized PF like Amir Johnson.

PART 3 - The John Kuester Effect

At the 10:14 mark of the 2nd quarter, with the Raptors leading by 3 points [28-31], Pistons’ head coach, John Kuester:

i. Replaced Ben Gordon/OG with Will Bynum/PG;
ii. Shifted Rodney Stuckey/PG to the OG position; and,
iii. Replaced Charlie Villanueva/PF with Jonas Jerebko/PF-SF;

while keeping Austin Daye/SF and Ben Wallace/C on the floor, against Toronto’s 5-man unit of:

Jarrett Jack, PG
Marco Belinelli, OG
DeMar DeRozan, SF
Hedo Turkoglu, PF and
Andrea Bargnani, C

Jay Triano did not respond with a substitution which created the following individual defensive match-ups for Detroit:

Bynum vs Jack
Stuckey vs Belinelli
Daye vs DeRozan
Jerebko vs Turkoglu, and
Wallace vs Bargnani.

This shift of 14 seconds produced a +2 gain for the Pistons.

At the 10:00 mark, however, Raptors’ head coach, Jay Triano, replaced Hedo Turkoglu/SF-PF with Amir Johnson/PF.

John Kuester did not respond with a substitution for the Pistons which created the following individual defensive match-ups for Detroit:

Bynum vs Jack
Stuckey vs Belinelli
Daye vs DeRozan
Jerebko vs Johnson, and
Wallace vs Bargnani.

This shift of 29 seconds produced a -2 loss for the Pistons.

At the 9:31 mark, Jay Triano replaced DeMar DeRozan/SF-OG with Sonny Weems.

John Kuester did not respond with a substitution for the Pistons which created the following individual defensive match-ups for Detroit:

Bynum vs Jack
Stuckey vs Belinelli
Daye vs Weems
Jerebko vs Johnson, and
Wallace vs Bargnani.

This shift of 1:44 produced a -4 loss for the Pistons … and was halted, temporarily, by an official’s time-out, with Detroit trailing by 7 points [32-39]. 

Coming out from this time-out, John Kuester responded by replacing Jonas Jerebko/PF-SF with Tayshaun Prince/SF.

Jay Triano did not respond with a substitution for the Raptors which created the following individual defensive match-ups for Detroit:

Bynum vs Jack
Stuckey vs Belinelli
Daye vs Weems
Prince vs Johnson, and
Wallace vs Bargnani.

This shift of 2:33 produced a -6 loss for the Pistons … and was halted by a regular time-out, called by Detroit, with Toronto leading by 13 points [34-47].

Coming out from this time-out, John Kuester:

i. Replaced Austin Daye with Ben Gordon/OG-PG;
ii. Shifted Rodney Stuckey/PG-OG to the Small Forward position; and,
iii. Replaced Ben Wallace/C with Jason Maxiell/PF;

while keeping Will Bynum and Tayshaun Prince on the floor, as the PG and PF, respectively.

Jay Triano did not respond with a substitution for the Raptors which created the following individual defensive match-ups for Detroit:

Bynum vs Jack
Gordon vs Belinelli
Stuckey vs Weems
Prince vs Johnson, and
Maxiell vs Bargnani.

This shift of 1:01 produced a -2 loss for the Pistons.

At the 4:13 mark, John Kuester:

i. Replaced Rodney Stuckey with Charlie Villanueva; and,
ii. Moved Tayshaun Prince back to the SF position.

Jay Triano did not respond with a substitution for the Raptors which created the following individual defensive match-ups for Detroit:

Bynum vs Jack
Gordon vs Belinelli
Prince vs Weems
Maxiell vs Johnson, and
Villanueva vs Bargnani.

This shift of 28 seconds produced a +2 gain for the Pistons … and, finally, stopped the Raptors’ run, with Detroit trailing by 13 points [36-49].

This is the type of poor personnel use …

[for example]

a. Having Ben Wallace attempt to check Andrea Bargnani
b. Playing Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey together;
c. Playing Will Bynum, Ben Gordon and Rodney Stuckey together;
d. Playing Tayshaun Prince at PF with Ben Wallace/C; and,
e. Failing to have Villanueva check Bargnani;

by John Kuester which has been responsibile for the bulk of the Pistons’ internal problems this season.

———————————–

If the Raptors could just play a steady diet of opponents the same quality as this year’s Pistons … re: coaches and players … then they would have been able to qualify for the playoffs a long time ago.

Chris Black … for whom this corner has a considerable degree of respect …  suggested yesterday that the Raptors would be doing the “right thing”, if they were to insert Reggie Evans/PF into their Starting Unit, given the recent injury sustained by Chris Bosh/PF:

Ball v.1.33

[excerpt #1]

… I think most people would suggest you should just move Johnson into the starting lineup and go from there, however, the more Evans plays, the more the numbers are starting to say something fairly startling. That’s why I think he should start alongside Bargnani. And it’s why I think he should start alongside Bosh when/if the time comes.

Let me build my case:

First off, and in simplest terms: With Evans on the floor, the Raptors outscore their opponents by 2.15 points per 100 possessions (best mark on the team).

Why is that possible? Why does it happen?

[excerpt #2]

… here are Toronto’s big men, listed by their Opponent’s PER:

STAT OF THE DAY CHARGES PER 40 MINUTES - NBA LEADERS

Evans 11.1
Bosh 18.1
Bargnani 19.1
Johnson 19.8
Nesterovic 21.6

Reggie gets after it defensively. And that’s why I think he should start for the remainder of this season and the playoffs.

One more reason Reggie is quickly becoming a favourite of mine, and it’s my Stat of the Day

Nick Collison 1.45
Reggie Evans 1.36
Jose Juan Barea 1.26
Kyle Lowry 1.25
Jared Jeffries 1.20

==========

Q1. Could it, possibly, be that Chris is right about this?

A1. No, unfortunately, in this instance, he is not correct.

Here’s the take from yours truly:

———-

[from the comment section at T.Jose Caldeford]

Chris,

If you check the actual play-by-play data for Reggie Evans’ minutes played so far this season, you should be able to see that he has seen quite a bit of floor time playing Power Forward with Chris Bosh at the Center position.

To expect Reggie Evans’ +/- numbers to remain constant when he’s used in combination with [Andrea] Bargnani or [Amir] Johnson, instead of Chris Bosh, is to fail to understand how the NBA game actually works, based on individual match-ups, mismatches and who exactly is on the floor, both, with and against you.

As difficult [counter-intuitive?] as it might seem …

The Raptors best chance for success in Chris Bosh’s absence would be to:

PG - Play Calderon more minutes over Jack
OG + SF - Use a 3-player rotation of Weems, Turkoglu and DeRozan
PF + C - Use a 3-player rotation of Nesterovic, Bargnani and Johnson

in a tight 8-man rotation

… with support from Antoine Wright/OG-SF, Marco Belinelli/OG-PG and Reggie Evans/PF.

Starting and giving copious amounts of PT to Reggie Evans is NOT the correct answer to the Raptors’ current dilema, when Chris Bosh is the one who is missing from their everyday line-up.

———-

Reggie Evans is a low end PF who:

1. Has a great deal of difficulty finishing around the rim;

2. Is a poor mid-range shooter;

3. Is a non-shot blocker [i.e. similar to other very limited back-up players like Collison-N/PF, Barea/PG, Lowry/PG, Jeffries/PF];

4. Fouls excessively;

5. Is slow-footed in both defensive and offensive transition;

6. Is a poor individual defender, when facing Top Tier opposition;

7. Is a poor individual defender in Pick & Roll/Pop + Hedge situations;

8. Is a poor team defender in Help situations;

9. Is a good “hustle/energy” player that can use his body, physically, to rebound;

and,

10. Gives his “best effort” at all times [i.e. which is highly valued by a hockey-crazed fanbase]. 

Nothing more, and nothing less, than THAT.

———–

It can sometimes be amazing to see just how many NBA observers actually watch the games that take place each night without paying closer attention to who exactly is on the floor, matched-up against what individual check, and with what specific set of teammates beside him, working at what specific positions … despite the increased level of statistical sophistication which exists in today’s on-line hoops community.

Despite what you might have been told by countless others …

including, for example, Dean Oliver, Kevin Pelton, David Berri, Wayne Winston, Dan Rosenbaum, John Hollinger, Justin Kubatko, Neil Paine, and even Daryl Morey, etc.

… when it comes to being able to win the league championship,

Basketball is simply not a game of “macro data analysis”, pertaining to “average” performance levels in a host of existing game-stat categories, by a set of “generic” players, represented through their rotisserie league “production numbers”.

Basketball is a game which is based on a seemingly endless series of individual and inter-connected match-ups and mismatches … that can best be understood through a combination of highly specific “micro data analysis”, relevant “macro data analysis,” and highly developed “basketball acumen”, derived from countless hours of practiced learning, playing, and actually teaching/coaching others how the game is really played [properly?] by the very best players in the world, both, in isolation AND when working in conjunction with teammates, coaches and opponents. 

———-

Hopefully, Jay Triano & Co. will heed the specific suggestions provided here and, in the process, be able to secure enough wins from their 4 remaining regular season games to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs.

1. Since last summer, the prognostication from this corner of the blogosphere has been that the Raptors would likely finish the 2009-2010 campaign with somewhere between 38-to-44 wins. 

2. What yours truly wrote on Michael Grange’s blog [i.e. From Deep] yesterday afternoon:

Toronto used a “new” Starting 5, on Friday night, against Denver:

Jose Calderon, PG [same as before]
Sonny Weems, OG [new]
Antoine Wright, SF [new]
Chris Bosh, PF [same as before]
Andrea Bargnani, C [same as before]

The same day, Jermaine O’Neal/C hyperextended his right knee in Miami’s road win at Milwaukee and is not expected to play in this evening’s home game against the Raptors.

If the Raptors decide to use a slightly different version of their ”new” Starting 5 and insert a healthy Hedo Turkoglu into the SF position, in place of Antoine Wright, it will create the following set of individual match-ups:

Option 1 - Currently Expected Rotations

and, in all likelihood mean that Toronto will lose their 3rd game in a row.

On the other hand, if the Raptors decide to go with Option 2:

Option 2 - Should Be Rotations, from Toronto’s POV

… there’s a fairly good chance they will be able to put a stop to their 2-game losing streak and stay 1.5 games ahead of the 9th place Bulls in the Eastern Conference standings.

——————————————–

Contrary to popular belief …

Andrea Bargnani is a long ways away from being a useless NBA player, provided that he is actually used properly, i.e. as a Back-up Center, who becomes THE focal point of the Raptors’ offense each time Chris Bosh is taken off the floor.

At some point, the days eventually begin to run together, in Raptorville.

The same problems occur from one season to the next and, seemingly, never ever get fixed properly.

——————————————–

Feschuk: Listless Raptors puzzle GM Colangelo

“I’ve got a lot of suspicions, I guess, of what’s gone wrong. It hasn’t been the same since the all-star break,” Colangelo said. “Too many guys came back from the break with a different approach. And that’s the part that’s troubling. … It’s not a talent issue. And it’s clear that the right message is being delivered (by the coaching staff). But the students have to carry out the agenda. And it’s got to be a team agenda. It can’t be an individual agenda.”

——————————————–

Is removing Jose Calderon from the starting line-up, once again, really going to solve their on-going problems at the defensive end of the floor?

Chisholm: Triano sending the wrong message

Is removing DeMar DeRozan from the starting line-up, for the first time this season, really going to be the catalyst for a substantive change in the way that this team approaches the business of rebounding and being able to fight back when things don’t quite go according to plan, in a given quarter, half, or game? … as other legitimate contending teams have always done in the history of the NBA.

Is asking Chris Bosh [i.e. the team's best player, by a wide margin] … the same question, again, and again:

“What’s wrong with you guys?”

really going to illicit a pearl of wisdom that, if said out loud to the reporters in a post practice/game media scrum, is going to miraculously change the culture which exists within their locker-room?

———————————–

The reality of the Raptors’ current situation is this:

1. Once the trade deadline has passed, there is very little that can be done to fundamentally alter the personnel on a team’s roster.

2. Firing their head coach makes little sense, given that he was hand-picked by the GM to run the day-to-day operation only 9 months ago, and the organization is still paying the salary of its former head coach [i.e. Sam Mitchell], who was fired in December of last season.

3. The team’s defensive woes have NOT been rooted in the mediocre-to-poor play of Jose Calderon, who is comparable … as a less-than stellar individual defender with a solid offensive game … to 6 of the other starting Point Guards for the Top 15 teams in the league [i.e. see the chart below].

4.  The team’s defensive woes have NOT been rooted in the mediocre-to-poor play of DeMar DeRozan, who is the most effective Off Guard on their roster, given the individual short-comings of Antoine Wright, Sonny Weems and Marco Belinelli, none of whom are comparable to the starting players for the Top 15 teams in the league [i.e. see the chart below].

5. The most significant difference between Toronto’s starting line-up and the Top 15 teams in the league is at the Center position.

6. Opposite to what Bryan Colangelo might actually think:

* TENACITY is, in fact, a most valuable TALENT in the NBA … since every player does not have it in the same quantity;

and,

* The wrong message is, in fact, being sent whenever a NBA team uses an offensively focused player as its starting Center … while it does not also have a DOMINANT, multi-dimensional, Small Forward in its best Group of 5.

7. If Chris Bosh is, in fact, the best player on your team, by a wide margin, and Jose Calderon is, in fact, the best offensively focused Point Guard, and Hedo Turkoglu is, in fact, the best offensively focused Small Forward, then you simply CANNOT HAVE have another offensively focused player as your starting Center … if you want your team to exhibit the type of TENACITY that’s required to fight back from adverse situations which occur in NBA games. 

8. Andrea Bargnani is the player who NEEDS to be removed from the team’s starting line-up, if Toronto is going to turn around its lost season.

———-

PS. FYI, the stats shown here for TS%, DEF and TReb are from hoopdata.com.

These are the 2 most recent articles penned by Dave Feschuk, Toronto Star Sports Columnist, concerning the current plight of the Raptors:

Kings embarrass slumping Raptors 113-90 [Thu Mar 11 2010]

… the Raptors lost their seventh game in eight, 113-90, with a woefully heartless performance against a team they should have defeated.

Outscored by an astounding 43-23 in a listless third quarter that saw Toronto’s five-point halftime lead turn into a deep hole, the Raptors never recovered.

“We got very selfish,” said Jay Triano, the Toronto coach. “We had guys come down, take a shot, and I guess other guys are not happy because they don’t touch the ball. We miss the shot, it gets rebounded, and it’s fast-break points. And it’s a 10-0 run before you know it. And we cave after that.

[#1]“It’s part of the resolve we need to have. When a team goes on a run, we need to be able to come back and snuff it out by scoring points.”

A night after the Toronto locker room spoke of being encouraged by its feat of holding the defending champion Lakers to 45% field-goal shooting, albeit in a 109-107 loss, the Toronto defence laid down to allow the home team to shoot a remarkable 75% in the third frame, and 51% for the game. In those 12 minutes after halftime, a game was turned on its head. [#2] While Toronto had owned the trenches in the first half, outscoring Sacramento 32-22 down low at halftime, the Kings drove the lane and ran the floor without resistance in the third quarter, scoring 24 points in the paint to Toronto’s 4 while out-rebounding Toronto 13-4.

“Our body language at the start of the second half wasn’t very good. They came out and they went on a run … We never were able to get back into a groove after that,” said Antoine Wright, the reserve swingman. [#3] “That’s when the selfish play came in. Guys started holding onto the ball a little bit longer. I’m guilty of it as well as everybody else.”

Indeed, with two of Toronto’s top three point producers, Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu, continuing to struggle in the wake of respective ankle injuries, Toronto’s offence — a stagnant, selfish concoction that managed just 15 assists on Wednesday — couldn’t compensate for the deficiencies. [#4] Bosh was limited to 14 points on 6-for-20 shooting. Turkoglu was even worse, making just 2 of his 8 shots for 6 points.

“I would love to come in and play the ball I was playing before I turned my ankle. But it’s not like that,” said Bosh. “I’m trying to get back into the same mode I was in. It’s hard right now. I’m going to get there soon. We’re just at a tough stretch right now.

“It’s just getting a feel for the game. [#5] I missed a lot of easy shots today, shots I feel I should make, especially 15 feet and in. I can’t say much about that. They just went out. I don’t get too down about it. I know those shots are going to be there. There’s still plenty of basketball left to play. I just have to step up and make sure I play some decent defence and get some rebounds, and I can help this team out a lot more.”

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Lapses leave Raptors coach to make tough choices [Fri Mar 12 2010]

… there is clearly much more to Toronto’s poor play than a rusty return by Bosh and the comatose Hedo Turkoglu. And certainly, at the very least, there is this: [#6] Triano is employing a flabby rotation that continues to tolerate repeated lapses from unfocused players who would be, under a less sympathetic coach, riding the pine.

“You’ve got to take away some of the freedom around here, what guys have,” said Wright, offering the coaching staff some unsolicited advice. “(The players’) leash is not going to be as loose as it’s been. If you’re not doing what (the team) needs you to do, you’re going to have to come out of the game. That’s the only way to address (the situation) right now at this point in the season.”

[#7] Wright’s agenda has been no secret from the beginning of training camp, when he began lobbying for the spot in the starting lineup still occupied by rookie DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan has long been underperforming on defence, where he is known for a wandering attention to detail. (Go figure that he was the only Raptor to play all 12 minutes of Wednesday’s disastrous third quarter, wherein the Kings shot an astounding 75 per cent from the field and outscored Toronto by a season-high spread 43-23.) [#8] So as shameless as his campaigning has been, inserting Wright into the first five is perhaps the simplest way to jostle the Raptors out of their current slumber.

But long-time NBA observers might also humbly suggest that Triano might think about making some additional hard choices, and soon, specifically by [#9a] paring down the rotation as the regular season’s 19-game home stretch continues Saturday and Sunday at Golden State and Portland. Amir Johnson and Reggie Evans, for instance, have been largely splitting minutes as the off-the-bench energy guy. [#9b] Neither has been particularly effective and Evans has been downright sullen occupying half a role.

[#9c] There’s a glut of reserve twos and threes in Wright, Marco Belinelli, Sonny Weems and, occasionally, Jose Calderon, most of whom can never be sure when and how long he’ll play on any given night.

[#9d] Conventional NBA wisdom says a lack of role definition is bad for morale. And even if that concern is sometimes overblown – these guys should be adaptable – there’s evidence it’s not helping here.

Triano spoke of seeing players pouting Wednesday and he linked the discontent to poor shot selection and a lack of ball movement. Jarrett Jack, the starting point guard, took issue with Triano’s view of the situation – pointing out that what is being construed as selfish play is simply the execution of Triano’s long-stated philosophy that every player should, as his first option, look to score.

“I don’t think guys were selfish. Obviously we encourage people to take shots when they think they have ‘em,” Jack said. “Maybe coach can elaborate on it if that’s what he saw. I didn’t see it that way.”

[#10a] So the hung heads and poor body language, if you read between the lines of the locker-room murmuring, aren’t simply a product of Bosh and Turkoglu forcing the offence. They’re also related to uneven, unpredictable playing time – not to mention the lack of repercussions for the slew of missed defensive assignments racked up by players like DeRozan and Andrea Bargnani on most nights.

Suddenly the conscientious few among the Raptors, calculating that conscientiousness isn’t being rewarded, are taking possessions off. With Toronto one game clear of ninth place, Triano doesn’t have much time to sooth their burn.

[10b] Said Wright: “That’s what our coaching staff is paid for.”

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Here’s the take from this corner.

#1. When an opponent goes on a run the proper way to snuff it out isn’t by just “scoring points,” in return.

The proper way is by:

I. Getting stops on defense.
II. Getting the Defensive Rebound or creating a Turnover.
III. Scoring with an interior basket [either, in transition or the half-court] or from a free throw.  

Until the Raptors organization clearly/fully understands this distinction they are going nowhere fast.

#2. This reality clearly illustrates the importance of:

I. Trench warfare, as a general concept.
II. Getting/stopping easy baskets [i.e. layups] scored in transition situations.
III. Getting/stopping interior baskets [i.e. scores in the paint] and free throws. 
IV. Generating a high percentage of low percentage scoring opportunities for the opponent.
V. Getting a high percentage of available Defensive Rebounds.

Fail to do these things well and your team will lose.

#3. Selfish play, at any level of basketball, is a TEAM killer.

#4. Their 2 best players were a combined 8 for 28 [28.6%] from the field.

When your 2 best players under-perform, on offense, you are going to lose.

#5. When your 2 best players under-perform, on offense, it is often the case that they have not been placed in the proper individual match-up situations, positionally, in order to allow them to operate at their maximum level of efficiency, in terms of offense, defense and rebounding.

This is when seemingly “easy” scoring opportunities are inexplicably “missed” and seemingly “over-matched” individual checks exceed their customary levels of production.

For prime examples in this game, see [A] Chris Bosh vs Carl Landry [i.e. under-sized and too quick for CB4 to dominate], and [B] Hedo Turkoglu vs Donta Greene or Omri Casspi [i.e. too quick and athletic for Turk to handle].

#6. Play more than 8 [or 9, at the most] players in your regular rotation and your team will lose.

#7. Have individual players in your regular rotation with an “agenda” of their own and your team will lose.

#8. The easiest way to solve the Raptors’ deficiencies in attention to detail, re: consistent defensive/rebounding execution, is to remove Andrea Bargnani from their Starting Unit.

As a general principle …

1st unit players should be primarily defensive oriented, with the possible exception of the Point Guard or Off Guard positions.

2nd unit players, on the other hand, can be primarily offensive oriented.

At this point:

- Bargnani is an offensive oriented player, who fits best with the 2nd unit
- Johnson is a defensive oriented player, who fits best with the 1st unit
- DeRozan is neither an offensive nor a defensive oriented player, who should either [i] be used as a Starter or [ii] be removed from the regular rotation altogether.

#9a. An 8-player regular rotation is what’s needed, at this point.

STARTERS: PG + OG + SF + PF + C
KEY SUBS: PG + OG/SF + PF/C

This would provide the team with the highest possible level of GROUP COHESION.

#9b. Reggie Evans needs to be removed from the regular rotation.

There is no place for a “sullen” personality at this level of competition.

#9c. Sonny Weems needs to be used as the OG-SF off the bench.

He is the best combination wing player, who can provide offense, defense and rebounding, when coming off the bench. 

#10a. Mistakes in the composition of the regular rotation are the primary source of the team’s current list of problems. It is the responsiblity of the coaching staff to manage these matters better than they have to this point.

#10b. A muzzle needs to be put on Antoine Wright, and he needs to be completely removed from the regular rotation … or, at least, until he gets this message loudly and clearly.

Last night’s game between the Houston Rockets and the Toronto Raptors served as an interesting benchmark for the on-going development of these two teams.

Toronto Raptors 92
HOUSTON ROCKETS 116

Complete Game Summary 

At the moment:

Toronto is 31-28/.525, 2nd in the Atlantic Division, and 5th in the Eastern Conference; while, Houston is 30-29/.508, 3rd in the Southwest Division, and 9th in the Western Conference.

Both teams played last night’s game without several key players in their respective line-ups, due to a variety of physical ailments/injuries:

Toronto
1. Chris Bosh/PF-C, leg injury [day-to-day] 
2. Jose Calderon/PG, arm injury [day-to-day]
3. Hedo Turkoglu/SF, leg injury [incurred last night]

Houston
1. Yao Ming/C, foot injury [expected to return next season]
2. Kyle Lowry/PG, leg injury [day-to-day]
3. Trevor Ariza/SF, hip injury [day-to-day]

Examining the complete rosters for each team:

is an interesting exercise when considering:

i. Chris Bosh/PF-C becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer;

ii. Chris Bosh is originally from Dallas, Texas;

iii. The relative “NBA talent” base on these two rosters;

iv. The “playoff prospects” for these two teams:

A. This season, and
B. Beyond the current season. 

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Toronto is currently in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division, and in 5th place [overall] in the Eastern Conference standings, with a 26-23/.531 W-L record.

After starting out 7-13/.350, with a difficult road-heavy schedule, the Raptors have since played 19-10/.655 basketball, with an easier predominently home-based schedule, that has effectively balanced out their season to-date.

If the Raptors can now manage to play .531 basketball for the remainder of the campaign they will finish with an overall mark of 43-39, or 44-38, which should then be good enough to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs and earn a mid-level seed [i.e. #5 or #6].

In a 1st Round playoff series of this type the Raptors would then be most likely to face one of:

1. The Atlanta Hawks/#4, who were eliminated by the Cleveland Cavaliers [i.e. 2006-2007 NBA Finalists] last season [in the 2nd Round] and the Boston Celtics 2 seasons ago [in Game 7 of the 1st Round];

2. The Boston Celtics/#3, who were 2007-2008 NBA Champions; or,

3. The Orlando Magic/#2, who were 2008-2009 NBA Finalists;

each of which is a team with more experience than Toronto, having qualified for the post-season elimination tournament for the last two seasons.

If the Raptors are indeed able to compete successfully in this type of series … by winning at least 2 [or, possibly, 3] games … the challenge they would then face, in the off season, is trying to re-sign their best player, Chris Bosh, who is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent this summer [July 1, 2010].

The NBA’s in-season trade deadline is now two weeks away [Feb 19], and the most important question on the minds of Raptors fans is:

QUESTION

Should Toronto make a trade, in advance of the deadline, in an effort to further improve their team right now, in hopes of being able to win their 1st Round playoff series this spring and, in the process, demonstrate to Chris Bosh that he will have a legitimate chance to compete for a league championship, in the immediate future, if he decides to renew his contract with the Raptors this off season, as a maximum salaried player? 

ANSWER

No, the Raptors should not make a trade of this sort, in advance of the deadline, in an effort to win their 1st Round playoff series this spring.

RATIONALE

Young teams like the Raptors need to be able to grow together, gradually, over an extended period of years, which involves taking 5 DISTINCT STEPS:

STEP 1. Learning how to make the playoffs, and then losing a 1st Round series;

STEP 2. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making minor player acquisitions, advancing to the 2nd Round;

STEP 3. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making a key player acquisition, advancing to the Conference Finals;

STEP 4. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making another key player acquisition, advancing to the NBA Finals; and,

STEP 5. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making minor player acquisitions, winning the NBA Championship. 

The Raptors’ current roster looks like this:

and is ”good enough”, as is, to compete successfully in a 1st Round playoff series this spring, if their GM and head coach can [i] create the proper atmosphere around their team, and [ii] use their resources effectively.

Stability is what the Raptors need most right now … and, to be able to find out exactly what they’ve got from their current group of players, when it comes to being battle-tested in a 1st Round playoff series against a veteran team like the Hawks, or the Celtics, or the Magic. 

What the Raptors do not need right now is increased Instability … in hopes of blithely skipping over Step 1 with this specific collection of players.

If Chris Bosh is actually the Right Person to lead the Raptors team into the future, then, he will decide on his own that Toronto is the best fit for him, and his long term goals/objectives, both, as a marquee player in the NBA, and as a person.

If Chris Bosh eventually makes the decision to resign with Toronto, the Raptors will then be in a “good” position to attempt to take Step 2 next year, after making minor player acquisitions during this coming off season. 

3. If Chris Bosh is not actually the Right Person to lead the Raptors team into the future, then, he will decide on his own that Toronto is not the best fit for him, and his long term goals/objectives, both, as a marquee player in the NBA, and as a person.

If Chris Bosh eventually makes the decision to sign with another team, then, the Raptors will still be in an “okay” position … i.e. with his vacant salary slot … to once again try to accomplish Step 1, in the gradual process of building a legitimate contending team in this league, over a number of years.

The major problem with this specific scenario is that this is precisely where the team has been before, on more than one occasion, during the Raptors’ first 15 years of existence:

A. With Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady;

B. With Vince Carter and Chris Bosh;

C. With Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani;

and, subsequently,

D. With Andrea Bargnani and DeMar DeRozan; etc., etc., etc.

Each time the Raptors have gotten to this same point before …

they have somehow managed to !@#$%^&* it up, royally, by trying to ”Swing for the fences”, prematurely, and in hopes of skipping Steps along the way.

Hopefully they [i.e. MLSE, Bryan Colangelo, and Jay Triano] have finally learned their lesson and, this time, are finally able to exercise the type of sound basketball judgment it takes to eventually build a legitimate NBA championship contending team in Toronto.

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For the Raptors …

It is time to batten down the hatches.

Let the current season play out.

Allow Chris Bosh to make his own call.

And, sail the ship forward, regardless, on a straight [and well-charted] course. 

In this world, it takes time, to build something truly worthwhile.