Posts Tagged ‘Jay Triano’

Understanding Raptors’ downward spiral

Friday, March 12th, 2010

These are the 2 most recent articles penned by Dave Feschuk, Toronto Star Sports Columnist, concerning the current plight of the Raptors:

Kings embarrass slumping Raptors 113-90 [Thu Mar 11 2010]

… the Raptors lost their seventh game in eight, 113-90, with a woefully heartless performance against a team they should have defeated.

Outscored by an astounding 43-23 in a listless third quarter that saw Toronto’s five-point halftime lead turn into a deep hole, the Raptors never recovered.

“We got very selfish,” said Jay Triano, the Toronto coach. “We had guys come down, take a shot, and I guess other guys are not happy because they don’t touch the ball. We miss the shot, it gets rebounded, and it’s fast-break points. And it’s a 10-0 run before you know it. And we cave after that.

[#1]“It’s part of the resolve we need to have. When a team goes on a run, we need to be able to come back and snuff it out by scoring points.”

A night after the Toronto locker room spoke of being encouraged by its feat of holding the defending champion Lakers to 45% field-goal shooting, albeit in a 109-107 loss, the Toronto defence laid down to allow the home team to shoot a remarkable 75% in the third frame, and 51% for the game. In those 12 minutes after halftime, a game was turned on its head. [#2] While Toronto had owned the trenches in the first half, outscoring Sacramento 32-22 down low at halftime, the Kings drove the lane and ran the floor without resistance in the third quarter, scoring 24 points in the paint to Toronto’s 4 while out-rebounding Toronto 13-4.

“Our body language at the start of the second half wasn’t very good. They came out and they went on a run … We never were able to get back into a groove after that,” said Antoine Wright, the reserve swingman. [#3] “That’s when the selfish play came in. Guys started holding onto the ball a little bit longer. I’m guilty of it as well as everybody else.”

Indeed, with two of Toronto’s top three point producers, Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu, continuing to struggle in the wake of respective ankle injuries, Toronto’s offence — a stagnant, selfish concoction that managed just 15 assists on Wednesday — couldn’t compensate for the deficiencies. [#4] Bosh was limited to 14 points on 6-for-20 shooting. Turkoglu was even worse, making just 2 of his 8 shots for 6 points.

“I would love to come in and play the ball I was playing before I turned my ankle. But it’s not like that,” said Bosh. “I’m trying to get back into the same mode I was in. It’s hard right now. I’m going to get there soon. We’re just at a tough stretch right now.

“It’s just getting a feel for the game. [#5] I missed a lot of easy shots today, shots I feel I should make, especially 15 feet and in. I can’t say much about that. They just went out. I don’t get too down about it. I know those shots are going to be there. There’s still plenty of basketball left to play. I just have to step up and make sure I play some decent defence and get some rebounds, and I can help this team out a lot more.”

—————————-

Lapses leave Raptors coach to make tough choices [Fri Mar 12 2010]

… there is clearly much more to Toronto’s poor play than a rusty return by Bosh and the comatose Hedo Turkoglu. And certainly, at the very least, there is this: [#6] Triano is employing a flabby rotation that continues to tolerate repeated lapses from unfocused players who would be, under a less sympathetic coach, riding the pine.

“You’ve got to take away some of the freedom around here, what guys have,” said Wright, offering the coaching staff some unsolicited advice. “(The players’) leash is not going to be as loose as it’s been. If you’re not doing what (the team) needs you to do, you’re going to have to come out of the game. That’s the only way to address (the situation) right now at this point in the season.”

[#7] Wright’s agenda has been no secret from the beginning of training camp, when he began lobbying for the spot in the starting lineup still occupied by rookie DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan has long been underperforming on defence, where he is known for a wandering attention to detail. (Go figure that he was the only Raptor to play all 12 minutes of Wednesday’s disastrous third quarter, wherein the Kings shot an astounding 75 per cent from the field and outscored Toronto by a season-high spread 43-23.) [#8] So as shameless as his campaigning has been, inserting Wright into the first five is perhaps the simplest way to jostle the Raptors out of their current slumber.

But long-time NBA observers might also humbly suggest that Triano might think about making some additional hard choices, and soon, specifically by [#9a] paring down the rotation as the regular season’s 19-game home stretch continues Saturday and Sunday at Golden State and Portland. Amir Johnson and Reggie Evans, for instance, have been largely splitting minutes as the off-the-bench energy guy. [#9b] Neither has been particularly effective and Evans has been downright sullen occupying half a role.

[#9c] There’s a glut of reserve twos and threes in Wright, Marco Belinelli, Sonny Weems and, occasionally, Jose Calderon, most of whom can never be sure when and how long he’ll play on any given night.

[#9d] Conventional NBA wisdom says a lack of role definition is bad for morale. And even if that concern is sometimes overblown – these guys should be adaptable – there’s evidence it’s not helping here.

Triano spoke of seeing players pouting Wednesday and he linked the discontent to poor shot selection and a lack of ball movement. Jarrett Jack, the starting point guard, took issue with Triano’s view of the situation – pointing out that what is being construed as selfish play is simply the execution of Triano’s long-stated philosophy that every player should, as his first option, look to score.

“I don’t think guys were selfish. Obviously we encourage people to take shots when they think they have ‘em,” Jack said. “Maybe coach can elaborate on it if that’s what he saw. I didn’t see it that way.”

[#10a] So the hung heads and poor body language, if you read between the lines of the locker-room murmuring, aren’t simply a product of Bosh and Turkoglu forcing the offence. They’re also related to uneven, unpredictable playing time – not to mention the lack of repercussions for the slew of missed defensive assignments racked up by players like DeRozan and Andrea Bargnani on most nights.

Suddenly the conscientious few among the Raptors, calculating that conscientiousness isn’t being rewarded, are taking possessions off. With Toronto one game clear of ninth place, Triano doesn’t have much time to sooth their burn.

[10b] Said Wright: “That’s what our coaching staff is paid for.”

—————————-

Here’s the take from this corner.

#1. When an opponent goes on a run the proper way to snuff it out isn’t by just “scoring points,” in return.

The proper way is by:

I. Getting stops on defense.
II. Getting the Defensive Rebound or creating a Turnover.
III. Scoring with an interior basket [either, in transition or the half-court] or from a free throw.  

Until the Raptors organization clearly/fully understands this distinction they are going nowhere fast.

#2. This reality clearly illustrates the importance of:

I. Trench warfare, as a general concept.
II. Getting/stopping easy baskets [i.e. layups] scored in transition situations.
III. Getting/stopping interior baskets [i.e. scores in the paint] and free throws. 
IV. Generating a high percentage of low percentage scoring opportunities for the opponent.
V. Getting a high percentage of available Defensive Rebounds.

Fail to do these things well and your team will lose.

#3. Selfish play, at any level of basketball, is a TEAM killer.

#4. Their 2 best players were a combined 8 for 28 [28.6%] from the field.

When your 2 best players under-perform, on offense, you are going to lose.

#5. When your 2 best players under-perform, on offense, it is often the case that they have not been placed in the proper individual match-up situations, positionally, in order to allow them to operate at their maximum level of efficiency, in terms of offense, defense and rebounding.

This is when seemingly “easy” scoring opportunities are inexplicably “missed” and seemingly “over-matched” individual checks exceed their customary levels of production.

For prime examples in this game, see [A] Chris Bosh vs Carl Landry [i.e. under-sized and too quick for CB4 to dominate], and [B] Hedo Turkoglu vs Donta Greene or Omri Casspi [i.e. too quick and athletic for Turk to handle].

#6. Play more than 8 [or 9, at the most] players in your regular rotation and your team will lose.

#7. Have individual players in your regular rotation with an “agenda” of their own and your team will lose.

#8. The easiest way to solve the Raptors’ deficiencies in attention to detail, re: consistent defensive/rebounding execution, is to remove Andrea Bargnani from their Starting Unit.

As a general principle …

1st unit players should be primarily defensive oriented, with the possible exception of the Point Guard or Off Guard positions.

2nd unit players, on the other hand, can be primarily offensive oriented.

At this point:

- Bargnani is an offensive oriented player, who fits best with the 2nd unit
- Johnson is a defensive oriented player, who fits best with the 1st unit
- DeRozan is neither an offensive nor a defensive oriented player, who should either [i] be used as a Starter or [ii] be removed from the regular rotation altogether.

#9a. An 8-player regular rotation is what’s needed, at this point.

STARTERS: PG + OG + SF + PF + C
KEY SUBS: PG + OG/SF + PF/C

This would provide the team with the highest possible level of GROUP COHESION.

#9b. Reggie Evans needs to be removed from the regular rotation.

There is no place for a “sullen” personality at this level of competition.

#9c. Sonny Weems needs to be used as the OG-SF off the bench.

He is the best combination wing player, who can provide offense, defense and rebounding, when coming off the bench. 

#10a. Mistakes in the composition of the regular rotation are the primary source of the team’s current list of problems. It is the responsiblity of the coaching staff to manage these matters better than they have to this point.

#10b. A muzzle needs to be put on Antoine Wright, and he needs to be completely removed from the regular rotation … or, at least, until he gets this message loudly and clearly.

Houston or Toronto?

Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010

Last night’s game between the Houston Rockets and the Toronto Raptors served as an interesting benchmark for the on-going development of these two teams.

Toronto Raptors 92
HOUSTON ROCKETS 116

Complete Game Summary 

At the moment:

Toronto is 31-28/.525, 2nd in the Atlantic Division, and 5th in the Eastern Conference; while, Houston is 30-29/.508, 3rd in the Southwest Division, and 9th in the Western Conference.

Both teams played last night’s game without several key players in their respective line-ups, due to a variety of physical ailments/injuries:

Toronto
1. Chris Bosh/PF-C, leg injury [day-to-day] 
2. Jose Calderon/PG, arm injury [day-to-day]
3. Hedo Turkoglu/SF, leg injury [incurred last night]

Houston
1. Yao Ming/C, foot injury [expected to return next season]
2. Kyle Lowry/PG, leg injury [day-to-day]
3. Trevor Ariza/SF, hip injury [day-to-day]

Examining the complete rosters for each team:

Pos

TORONTO

RK

HOUSTON

RK

COACH

 

Triano

2

Adelman

1

SUB-TOTAL

2

 

1

STARTERS

PG

Jack

2

Brooks

1

OG

DeRozan

2

Martin

1

SF

Turkoglu

2

Battier

1

PF

Bosh

1

Scola

2

C

Bargnani

2

Ming

1

SUB-TOTAL

9

 

6

KEY SUBS

PG

Calderon

1

Lowry

2

OG

Weems

2

Budinger

1

SF

Wright

2

Ariza

1

PF

Johnson

1

Hill

2

C

Nesterovic

1

Anderson

2

SUB-TOTAL

7

 

8

RESERVES

G

Belinelli

1

Taylor

2

F/C

Evans

2

Jeffries

1

SUB-TOTAL

3

 

3

TOTAL

21

 

18

EXTRAS/OUT

 

Banks

2

Temple

1

 

O’Bryant

2

Hayes

1

 

 

 

Armstrong

1

LEGEND: Pos – Position; RK – Ranking.

is an interesting exercise when considering:

i. Chris Bosh/PF-C becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer;

ii. Chris Bosh is originally from Dallas, Texas;

iii. The relative “NBA talent” base on these two rosters;

iv. The “playoff prospects” for these two teams:

A. This season, and
B. Beyond the current season. 

———————————————
 

If you were Chris Bosh ... Which team would you choose to sign with this summer?

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Right move for the Raptors, right now

Friday, February 5th, 2010

Toronto is currently in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division, and in 5th place [overall] in the Eastern Conference standings, with a 26-23/.531 W-L record.

After starting out 7-13/.350, with a difficult road-heavy schedule, the Raptors have since played 19-10/.655 basketball, with an easier predominently home-based schedule, that has effectively balanced out their season to-date.

If the Raptors can now manage to play .531 basketball for the remainder of the campaign they will finish with an overall mark of 43-39, or 44-38, which should then be good enough to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs and earn a mid-level seed [i.e. #5 or #6].

In a 1st Round playoff series of this type the Raptors would then be most likely to face one of:

1. The Atlanta Hawks/#4, who were eliminated by the Cleveland Cavaliers [i.e. 2006-2007 NBA Finalists] last season [in the 2nd Round] and the Boston Celtics 2 seasons ago [in Game 7 of the 1st Round];

2. The Boston Celtics/#3, who were 2007-2008 NBA Champions; or,

3. The Orlando Magic/#2, who were 2008-2009 NBA Finalists;

each of which is a team with more experience than Toronto, having qualified for the post-season elimination tournament for the last two seasons.

If the Raptors are indeed able to compete successfully in this type of series … by winning at least 2 [or, possibly, 3] games … the challenge they would then face, in the off season, is trying to re-sign their best player, Chris Bosh, who is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent this summer [July 1, 2010].

The NBA’s in-season trade deadline is now two weeks away [Feb 19], and the most important question on the minds of Raptors fans is:

QUESTION

Should Toronto make a trade, in advance of the deadline, in an effort to further improve their team right now, in hopes of being able to win their 1st Round playoff series this spring and, in the process, demonstrate to Chris Bosh that he will have a legitimate chance to compete for a league championship, in the immediate future, if he decides to renew his contract with the Raptors this off season, as a maximum salaried player? 

ANSWER

No, the Raptors should not make a trade of this sort, in advance of the deadline, in an effort to win their 1st Round playoff series this spring.

RATIONALE

Young teams like the Raptors need to be able to grow together, gradually, over an extended period of years, which involves taking 5 DISTINCT STEPS:

STEP 1. Learning how to make the playoffs, and then losing a 1st Round series;

STEP 2. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making minor player acquisitions, advancing to the 2nd Round;

STEP 3. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making a key player acquisition, advancing to the Conference Finals;

STEP 4. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making another key player acquisition, advancing to the NBA Finals; and,

STEP 5. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making minor player acquisitions, winning the NBA Championship. 

The Raptors’ current roster looks like this:

ROLE

PG

OG

SF

PF

C

Starter

Jack

DeRozan

Turkoglu

Bosh

Bargnani

Key Subs

Calderon

Belinelli

Wright

Johnson

Nesterovic

Reserves

 

Weems

Evans

 

Extras/Out

Banks

 

 

 

O’Bryant

and is ”good enough”, as is, to compete successfully in a 1st Round playoff series this spring, if their GM and head coach can [i] create the proper atmosphere around their team, and [ii] use their resources effectively.

RESOURCE

SERVICEABILITY

Bosh

- One of the best young All-around Big Men in the NBA

- Multi-faceted: Strong Rebounder; Strong Team Defender; and, Efficient Scorer … with Good character

Bargnani

- One of the best young Scoring Big Men in the NBA

- Scorer’s mentality … fearless

DeRozan

- Young, athletic Wing player

- Scorer’s mentality … needs added strength and crunch time PT

- Significant “upside”

Johnson

- Young, athletic Big Man

- High energy Rebounder/Defender’s mentality

- Significant “upside”

Calderon

- Ultra efficient Point Guard: High % perimeter shooter; Outstanding Ast:TO

- Emotionally Stabile and Unselfish

Turkoglu

- Veteran All-around Wing player

- Clutch scorer/shooter … fearless

Jack

- Still youngish, All-around Point Guard

Belinelli

- Still youngish, scorer/perimeter shooter

Weems

- Young, athletic rebounder/defender/slasher/mid-range scorer

Nesterovic

- Veteran Big Men; strong interior defender

Wright

- Veteran Wing player; adequate perimeter defender

Evans

- Veteran Big Man; strong rebounder with good toughness

Banks

- Veteran back-up Point Guard

O’Bryant

- Still youngish back-up Center

Stability is what the Raptors need most right now … and, to be able to find out exactly what they’ve got from their current group of players, when it comes to being battle-tested in a 1st Round playoff series against a veteran team like the Hawks, or the Celtics, or the Magic. 

What the Raptors do not need right now is increased Instability … in hopes of blithely skipping over Step 1 with this specific collection of players.

If Chris Bosh is actually the Right Person to lead the Raptors team into the future, then, he will decide on his own that Toronto is the best fit for him, and his long term goals/objectives, both, as a marquee player in the NBA, and as a person.

If Chris Bosh eventually makes the decision to resign with Toronto, the Raptors will then be in a “good” position to attempt to take Step 2 next year, after making minor player acquisitions during this coming off season. 

3. If Chris Bosh is not actually the Right Person to lead the Raptors team into the future, then, he will decide on his own that Toronto is not the best fit for him, and his long term goals/objectives, both, as a marquee player in the NBA, and as a person.

If Chris Bosh eventually makes the decision to sign with another team, then, the Raptors will still be in an “okay” position … i.e. with his vacant salary slot … to once again try to accomplish Step 1, in the gradual process of building a legitimate contending team in this league, over a number of years.

The major problem with this specific scenario is that this is precisely where the team has been before, on more than one occasion, during the Raptors’ first 15 years of existence:

A. With Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady;

B. With Vince Carter and Chris Bosh;

C. With Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani;

and, subsequently,

D. With Andrea Bargnani and DeMar DeRozan; etc., etc., etc.

Each time the Raptors have gotten to this same point before …

they have somehow managed to !@#$%^&* it up, royally, by trying to ”Swing for the fences”, prematurely, and in hopes of skipping Steps along the way.

Hopefully they [i.e. MLSE, Bryan Colangelo, and Jay Triano] have finally learned their lesson and, this time, are finally able to exercise the type of sound basketball judgment it takes to eventually build a legitimate NBA championship contending team in Toronto.

——————————

For the Raptors …

It is time to batten down the hatches.

Let the current season play out.

Allow Chris Bosh to make his own call.

And, sail the ship forward, regardless, on a straight [and well-charted] course. 

In this world, it takes time, to build something truly worthwhile.

RAPTORS vs Heat, Game Preview

Wednesday, January 27th, 2010

For the benefit of both Raptors and Heat fans:

 

RAPTORS

Adv

HEAT

RATIONALE

STARTERS

Jack, PG

=

Alston, PG

Both are solid veterans who should be able to use their savvy to keep the other in-check in a match-up like this.

Belinelli, OG

à

Wade, OG

Wade is an All-League superstar. The Heat will win tonight, if he performs like one.

Turkoglu, SF

ß

Richardson, SF

Turkoglu will need to be the better player, if the Raptors are going to win. Q-Rich just needs to play solid D, to give the Heat a fighting chance.

Bosh, SF

ß

O’Neal, C

Bosh is the better player, at this stage of their respective careers.

Bargnani, C

=

Beasley, PF

In all likelihood, whoever wins this specific match-up will determine the outcome of this game. Beasley can effectively check Bargnani. Can Bargnani check Beasley, in return?

 

 

 

 

 

KEY SUBS

Calderon, PG

ß

Chalmers, PG

El Matador SHOULD be the better player. If he is not, the Raptors will be at a major disadvantage and will probably lose this game.

Weems, OG

=

Wright, G-F

Both are now better players than many casual fans realize. Belinelli’s game is all offense; Wright is better at defense and rebounding.

Wright, SF

=

Jones, F

The more PT Wright gets, the more likely TOR is to lose. Don’t expect Jones to play at all.

Johnson, PF

=

Haslem, PF

Johnson’s overall “energy” vs Haslem’s defense, rebounding, grit & savvy. A good individual match-up. Haslem needs to win this match-up to ease the load on Wade.

Nesterovic, C

=

Anthony, PF-C

Nesterovic is a solid vet; but, Anthony can be an effective rebounder/defender/shot-blocker, in his own right.

 

 

 

 

 

RESERVES

Banks, PG

à

Arroyo, PG

Neither is going to have a major impact on the outcome.

O’Bryant, C

à

Magloire, C

Although Magloire is the better player, neither should have much effect on the outcome.

COACH

Jay Traino

à

Erik Spoelstra

Although Triano is beginning to find his way better recently, Spoelstra is already one of the better young coaches in the NBA today, having apprenticed under a mastercraftsman. If Spoelstra slips up, Triano is good enough to get the W.

QIR/QR

#25/69

à

#11/38

TOR = 18th/PDR, 26th/PAR, 25rd/RDR; Mia = 14th/PDR, 9th/PAR; 15th/RDR.

Home

Yes

ß

No

TOR Home = 15-6; Mia Away = 10-10

EXPECTED RESULT
This could go either way and should only be decided in the final minute.  Covering the final number [-3/-105, which is shrinking, btw] might be a difficult proposition for the Raptors.

Legend: QIR – Quality Index Ranking [No. 1-30]; QR – Quality Rating [PDR + PAR + RDR]; PDR – Points Differential Ranking; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking.

Enjoy! … what should prove to be a highly entertaining game.

PS. Is there any doubt, however, that the Heat have the “coolest” [baby, baby, babyroster web page in the NBA today?

RAPTORS vs Bucks, Preview

Friday, January 22nd, 2010

For the benefit of both Raptors and Bucks fans:

 

RAPTORS

Adv

BUCKS

RATIONALE

STARTERS

Jack, PG

=

Jennings, PG

Both are solid on Off and Def. Although Jennings more explosive offensively, Jack is a veteran who should be able to use his savvy to keep the rook in check.

DeRozan, OG

=

Delfino, OG

DeRozan is more explosive on Off; although, Delfino is the better all-around player at this stage [i.e. vet vs rook].

Turkoglu, SF

ß

Mbah A Moute, SF

Turkoglu SHOULD be the better player. If he is not, the Raptors will be at a major disadvantage going with any other wing player in this spot.

Bosh, SF

ß

Ilyasova, PF

Bosh is the superior player. Period.

Bargnani, C

=

Bogut, C

Bargnani is much better on the perimeter. Bogut is solid in the post. Bargnani is a more explosive scorer; while Bogut is a superior Rebounder and Team Defender. Conflicting Styles make for a good fight.

 

 

 

 

 

KEY SUBS

Calderon, PG

ß

Ridnour, PG

El Matador SHOULD be the better player. If he is not, the Raptors will be at a major disadvantage and will probably lose this game.

Belinelli, OG

=

Bell, PG-OG

Belinelli’s better offense is cancelled out by Bell’s better defense and rebounding.

Wright, SF

=

Stackhouse, SF

Stack was once a vastly superior player to Wright; but, Stack has played very little over the last 2 years.

Johnson, PF

=

Warrick, PF

Johnson is the better defender/rebounder. Warrick is better offensively.

Nesterovic, C

=

Elson, PF-C

Nesterovic has more veteran savvy; but, Elson is a moderately effective, lively [i.e. relatively athletic], still-youngish player.

 

 

 

 

 

RESERVES

Banks, PG

=

Meeks, OG

Neither is going to have an impact on the outcome.

Weems, OG-SF

à

Thomas, PF-C

Weems is a better player than Wright but is not being used properly at-present. Thomas is a solid vet with a great deal of tenacity and savvy.

COACH

Jay Traino

à

Scott Skiles

Skiles is an experienced NBA head coach, who was a tough-minded, former NBA player; Triano is neither of these 2 things.

QIR/QR

#23/66

à

#19/55

TOR = 17th/PDR, 26th/PAR, 23rd/RDR; Mil = 18th/PDR, 15th/PAR; 22nd/RDR.

Home

Yes

ß

No

TOR Home = 13-6; Mil Away = 5-16

EXPECTED RESULT
TORONTO should win outright.  Covering the final number [-7.5/-105], however, might not be a sure proposition.

Legend: QIR – Quality Index Ranking [No. 1-30]; QR – Quality Rating [PDR + PAR + RDR]; PDR – Points Differential Ranking; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking.

Enjoy! … what should prove to be a very entertaining and close game.

Raptors making fundamental error with end-of-game unit

Thursday, January 14th, 2010

Sometimes, and despite the best of intentions, what a person thinks s/he is seeing happen in a specific basketball game isn’t actually what is really [truly] happening at all.

—————————

Raptor duo saying all the right things: Calderon and Jack content with their roles in point guard rotation, have faith in Triano

It has been common practice that Calderon and Jack have been, and will continue to be, on the floor down the stretch in tight games.

And Triano said Tuesday they will be joined by Hedo Turkoglu in some kind of three-headed point guard monster the coach likes to unleash.

“I like having three ball-handlers and they can all shoot the ball as well,” Triano said of his finishing group that also includes Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani.

“I don’t mind that. I don’t think it’s something we want to do on a steady basis throughout most of a game, but to finish games I want guys on the floor who can make free throws when we have a lead and who can make plays for each other and who can make shots.”

—————————

As long as the Raptors’ head coach insists on using the following Five-Man Unit:

Jose Calderon, PG
Jarrett Jack, PG 
Hedo Turkoglu, SF
Chris Bosh, PF
Andrea Bargnani, C

for important stretches … either, at the end of games, or at key points earlier in the match-up… the Raptors are going to continue to perform below their current Capacity For Excellence.

In spite of what Jay Triano may believe, winning closely-contested NBA games involves doing many more things than just:

1. Making Free Throws, on offense;
2. Making “plays” for one another, on offense; and,
3. Making shots [i.e. Field Goals], on offense.

and, includes, for example:

iv. Preventing “dribble penetration”;
v. Preventing “pass penetration”;
vii. “Contesting” each Field Goal Attempt;
viii. Committing Personal Fouls in a strategic way;
ix. Making steals;
x. Making deflections;
xi. Blocking shots;
xii. Recovering loose balls;
xiii. Executing a range of different Strategies and Tactics, on defense;
xiv. Eliminating Opponent Offensive Rebounds/Rebounding each missed Oppenent FGA/FTA; and,
xv. Retreiving missed FGAs/FTAs by creating an offensive rebound;

Five-Man Unit stats from 82games.com for the Raptors

Top Five-Man Floor Units

#

Unit

Min

Off

Def

+/-

W

L

Win%

1

 Calderon-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh

258.8 

1.17 

1.14 

+9  

11  

11  

50.0

2

 Jack-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh

201.8 

1.01 

1.09 

-38  

6  

10  

37.5

3

 Calderon-Jack-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh

108.4 

1.16 

1.30 

-15  

5  

13  

27.7

4

 Jack-Weems-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh

47.8 

1.14 

1.05 

+16  

5  

2  

71.4

5

 Jack-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Johnson-Bargnani

43.6 

1.22 

1.18 

+7  

8  

4  

66.6

6

 Jack-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Johnson-Bosh

39.7 

1.16 

1.09 

+9  

6  

6  

50.0

7

 Calderon-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh

35.4 

1.23 

1.04 

+21  

8  

3  

72.7

8

 Jack-Wright-DeRozan-Bargnani-Bosh

34.2 

1.06 

0.99 

+6  

4  

2  

66.6

9

 Jack-Weems-DeRozan-Bargnani-Bosh

33.8 

1.16 

0.94 

+11  

4  

3  

57.1

10

 Jack-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh

33.4 

1.44 

1.18 

+23  

8  

4  

66.6

Top Five-Man Floor Units, Details

#

Unit

eFG

eFGA

FTA

Close

dClose

Reb

T/O

1

 Calderon-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh

.491 

.465 

-16 

35% 

39%  

48.5% 

-1% 

2

 Jack-DeRozan-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh

.450 

.456 

+15 

35% 

36%  

47.0% 

-1% 

3

 Calderon-Jack-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh

.410 

.525 

+22 

31% 

38%  

47.5% 

-1% 

4

 Jack-Weems-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh

.521 

.440 

+15 

37% 

39%  

46.5% 

-3% 

5

 Jack-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Johnson-Bargnani

.520 

.481 

-2 

28% 

41%  

40.0% 

+4% 

6

 Jack-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Johnson-Bosh

.406 

.448 

+16 

48% 

37%  

58.0% 

-3% 

7

 Calderon-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh

.455 

.391 

+10 

32% 

34%  

51.0% 

+1% 

8

 Jack-Wright-DeRozan-Bargnani-Bosh

.473 

.436 

+4 

44% 

38%  

47.5% 

+3% 

9

 Jack-Weems-DeRozan-Bargnani-Bosh

.558 

.464 

+8 

33% 

52%  

45.0% 

+11% 

10

 Jack-Belinelli-Turkoglu-Bargnani-Bosh

.627 

.500 

-2 

35% 

34%  

46.0% 

0% 

none of which are enhanced by using a two Point Guard line-up, when these two specific players are:

Jose Calderon, 6-3, 197
Jarrett Jack, 6-3, 205

each of whom is a non-elite level defender/rebounder and lacking in outstanding explosive quickness,

in conjunction with:

Hedo Turkoglu/SF … who is a non-elite level defender/rebounder and lacking in explosive quickness;

Chris Bosh/PF … who is a solid defender/rebounder;

Andrea Bargnani/C … who is a non-elite level defender/rebounder and lacking in explosive quickness.

There are Three Main Phases to a basketball game:

Offense, Defense and Rebounding,

and, until the Raptors do a much better job of incorporating ALL THREE phases into their game-planning, at all times, they will remain a middle-of-the-pack team in the NBA landscape.

———————————

PS. What makes this a particularly egregious faux pas, in the Raptors’ current situation, are the number of other Five-Man Unit options which they have available that would do a better job of balancing The Three Main Phases Of The Game for Toronto:

OFFENSIVE & REBOUNDING EMPHASIS
Calderon + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Calderon + Weems + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Calderon + DeRozan + Weems + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + Weems + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + DeRozan + Weems + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + Belinelli + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + Belinelli + Weems + Bosh + Bargnani

DEFENSIVE & REBOUNDING EMPHASIS
Calderon + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Calderon + Weems + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Calderon + DeRozan + Weems + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + Weems + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + DeRozan + Weems + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + Belinelli + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + Belinelli + Weems + Johnson + Bosh

more than one of which have yet to be tried at all by the Raptors this season.

7 benchmark games for the Raptors

Monday, December 21st, 2009

If the Raptors [13-17/.433; 2nd, Atlantic] can go into Detroit on Wednesday night and win a game against the Pistons, it will be a big step in the right direction:

Tinted glasses won’t help Raptors’ situation

December

Opponent

Minimal

Practical

Optimal

 Fri 18

 vs Nets, 2-24/.077

 W, 1-0, 12-17

W, 1-0, 12-17

 W, 1-0, 12-17

 Sun 20

 vs Hornets, 11-13/.458

 W, 2-0, 13-17

W, 2-0, 13-17

 W, 2-0, 13-17

 Wed 23

 @ Pistons, 11-14/.440  

 L, 2-1, 13-18

L, 2-1, 13-18

 L, 2-1, 13-18

 Sun 27

 vs Pistons, 11-14/.440

 W, 3-1, 14-18

W, 3-1, 14-18

 W, 3-1, 14-18 

 Wed 30

 vs Bobcats, 10-14/.417

 L, 3-2, 14-19

L, 3-2, 14-19

 W, 4-1, 15-18

January

Opponent

Minimal

Practical

 

 Sat 02

 @ Celtics, 20-4/.833  

 L, 3-3, 14-20

L, 3-3, 14-20

 L, 4-2, 15-19

 Sun 03

 vs Spurs, 13-10/.565

 L, 3-4, 14-21

L, 3-4, 14-21

 W, 5-2, 16-19

 Wed 06

 @ Magic, 19-7/.731  

 L, 3-5, 14-22

L, 3-5, 14-22

 L, 5-3, 16-20

 Fri 08

 @ 76ers, 6-19/.240  

 L, 3-6, 14-23

W, 4-5, 15-22

 W, 6-3, 17-20

 Sun 10

 vs Celtics, 20-4/.833

 L, 3-7, 14-24

L, 4-6, 15-23

 L, 6-4, 17-21

 Mon 11

 @ Pacers, 9-14/.391  

 L, 3-8, 14-25

L, 4-7, 15-24

 W, 7-4, 18-21

 Fri 15

 @ Knicks, 8-17/.320  

 L, 3-9, 14-26

W, 5-7, 16-24

 W, 8-4, 19-21

with a re-match set to occur, in Toronto, on Sunday, December 27.

Home court wins against the Nets, Hornets and Pistons should almost be a given during this stretch of 12 games.

An away court victory, however, against the Pistons, is a barometer of a different sort.

Despite a modest W-L record and having to cope with a string of injuries to key players [i.e. Rip Hamilton/Out; Ben Gordon/Out; and, Tayshaun Prince/Out], Detroit is a solid team:

* 5th in Points Allowed per game [94.7]; and,
* 4th in Rebounding Differential per game [+3.8].

There are 7 key games during this stretch which could go either way:

Game 1, @ Detroit Pistons
Game 2, vs Detroit Pistons
Game 3, vs Charlotte Bobcats
Game 4, vs San Antonio Spurs
Game 5, @ Philadelphia 76ers
Game 6, @ Indiana Pacers
Game 7, @ New York Knicks

and play a siginficant role towards deciding the eventual fate of Chris Bosh, Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani, Jay Triano and Bryan Colangelo with the Toronto Raptors.

Mark them off on your daily calendar, as they play out.

If the Raptors end up going 7 for 7, then you can expect them to challenge for a playoff spot this season.

Do the Raptors really have the 5th most talented team in the Eastern Conference?

Saturday, December 19th, 2009

During Wednesday’s television broadcast of the Orlando/Toronto game, Jack Armstrong, Toronto’s analyst, made the following observation about the perceived talent level for this year’s Raptors team:  

Play Audio

Now

Then, on Thursday evening , during the FAN590’s ”Hoops” broadcast, Eric Smith, Toronto’s radio analyst, tried to re-iterated this same point of view, when a caller suggested that the Charlotte Bobcats should actually be considered as “a better team with more NBA talent than the Raptors” … along with, at least, 4 other teams in the Estern Conference, i.e. Boston, Orlando, Cleveland and Atlanta.

After hearing Eric’s response to that caller, this is the exact comment [including errors] which was submitted by yours truly to his FAN590 blog, The Rap, on Friday, Dec 18 2009, at 2:17 PM:

————-

Hi, Eric.

I heard you on speak with a caller on last night’s show, just prior to 8:00 PM, concerning your belief that the Raptors [11-17/.393] are a better team than the Bobcats [10-14/.417]. According to what you said, your opinion was based on conversations you have had with various NBA insiders who you have encountered across the league and what their impression of Toronto and Charlotte has been to this point in the season.

Respectfully, it is my contention that you … and these NBA insiders who you happened to have communicated with regarding the relative strength of these two teams … happen to be incorrect in this assessment, and will eventually be proven wrong are the season plays itself out.

After starting the season poorly, without Stephen Jackson on their roster, the Bobcats have begun to climb up the standings in the Eastern Conference, and are now ahead of the Raptors. Although the Raptors [#4] have played a more difficult schedule than the Bobcats [#15], to this point, IMO, Charlotte has more “NBA talent” on its current roster, and should probably be expected to close out the current season by finishing ahead of Toronto in the final standings.

Calderon [+1] > Felton
DeRozan < Jackson [+1]
Turkoglu < Wallace [+2]
Bosh [+2] > Diaw
Bargnani < Chandler [+3]
———————-
Jack = Augustin
Belinelli < Henderson [+4]
Wright < Brown [+5]
Johnson = Mohammed
Nesterovic [+3] > Diop
———————-
Banks < Murray [+6]
Seems [+4] > Law
 Mensah-Bonsu = Graham
Evans [+5] ?
O’Bryant = Ajinca
———————-
Triano < Brown [+7]

PS. Hopefully, the fanbase should now be able to see that we’ve been saying for a while now, re: Jose Calderon’s relative lack of individual defensive prowess not being the major catalyst for the team’s many short-comings on that side of the ball, has been a highly accurate assessment. :-)

————- 

As you can clearly see there are several typos and what appear to be “publication errors” contained in that specific comment, which was submitted rather hurriedly and is still awaiting moderation/publication at The Rap.

In an effort to clear up any mis-understanding which Eric Smith - or other visitors to his blog - might have … 

Here is a more “in-depth” analysis of the rosters for the Raptors and the Bobcats, with a few adjustments to the initial ratings that more accurately reflect the current state of affairs with these two teams, from the perspective of this coner:

RAPTORS VS BOBCATS

ROSTER EVALUATION

2009-2010

No.

Player

Off

Def

Reb

Total

Adv

Tor

Cha

STARTERS

01

Calderon

4

2

3

9

+1

 

 

Felton

3

3

2

8

 

 

0

 

02

DeRozan

3

2

3

8

 

-

 

 

Jackson

4

4

4

12

 

+1

 

03

Turkoglu

4

2

3

9

 

-

 

 

Wallace

3

3

5

11

 

+2

 

04

Bosh

4

3

5

12

+2

 

 

Diaw

4

3

3

10

 

 

-

 

05

Bargnani

4

1

2

7

 

-

 

 

Chandler

1

4

4

9

 

+3

KEY SUBS

06

Jack

3

3

3

9

 

0

 

 

Augustin

4

3

2

9

 

 

0

 

07

Belinelli

3

2

1

6

 

-

 

 

Henderson

2

3

2

7

 

+4

 

08

Wright

2

2

2

6

 

-

 

 

Brown

2

3

3

8

 

+5

 

09

Johnson

2

3

4

9

 

0

 

 

Mohammed

3

3

3

9

 

 

0

 

10

Nesterovic

3

3

3

9

+3

 

 

Diop

1

4

3

8

 

 

0

RESERVES

11

Banks

2

3

2

7

 

-

 

 

Murray

3

3

2

8

 

+6

 

12

Weems

3

2

2

7

+4

 

 

Law

2

2

2

6

 

 

-

EXTRAS

13

O’Bryant

1

1

1

3

 

0

 

 

Ajinca

1

1

1

3

 

 

0

 

14

M-Bonsu

1

3

4

8

 

0

 

 

Graham

2

3

3

8

 

 

0

INJURED/OUT

15

Evans

[2]

[2]

[4]

[8]

[√]

[+5]

 

 

N/A

-

-

-

-

-

 

-

 

HC

Triano

3

2

3

8

 

-

 

 

Brown

4

4

4

12

 

+7

 

TOTALS

 

Toronto

42

34

41

117

+4

 

 

 

Charlotte

39

46

42

127

+7

 

 

————————————————————

Which team has more actual "NBA talent" on its current roster?

View Results

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————————————————————

Visitors here are invited to elaborate further on their own answer to this question in the comments section.

Up, down, or approximately where they are right now

Wednesday, December 16th, 2009

With last night’s 16th loss of the season …

Toronto Raptors 95
MIAMI HEAT 115
Game Summary

the most important question for the Toronto Raptors is:

Q1. Should this team, as constructed, be expected to improve substantially over the course of the next 55 games, or not?

A1. Well …

PART ONE

This is what the Eastern Conference standings look like today:

Eastern W L PCT GB CONF DIV HOME ROAD L 10 STREAK
Boston1 20 4 0.833 0.0 13-3 5-0 8-3 12-1 10-0 W 11
Orlando2 18 6 0.750 2.0 14-3 3-1 8-2 10-4 7-3 W 1
Atlanta3 17 6 0.739 2.5 10-4 2-2 10-2 7-4 6-4 W 4
Cleveland4 18 7 0.720 2.5 11-5 4-1 10-2 8-5 7-3 W 3
Miami5 12 11 0.522 7.5 8-5 3-2 7-7 5-4 4-6 W 1
Milwaukee6 11 11 0.500 8.0 6-7 2-3 9-3 2-8 3-7 W 2
Detroit7 11 13 0.458 9.0 8-5 1-3 8-4 3-9 6-4 L 1
Charlotte8 10 13 0.435 9.5 9-10 2-2 9-3 1-10 6-4 W 1
Toronto 11 16 0.407 10.5 7-9 0-1 7-5 4-11 4-6 L 1
Indiana 8 14 0.364 11.0 6-7 0-1 5-6 3-8 3-7 L 1
Chicago 8 15 0.348 11.5 5-9 3-2 6-5 2-10 2-8 L 2
New York 8 16 0.333 12.0 4-11 2-2 4-8 4-8 5-5 L 1
Washington 7 15 0.318 12.0 6-11 1-4 4-7 3-8 4-6 L 5
Philadelphia 6 18 0.250 14.0 5-10 3-2 4-8 2-10 1-9 W 1
New Jersey 2 23 0.080 18.5 2-15 0-5 1-8 1-15 2-8 L 4

PART TWO

As of Fri Dec 11 2009, this is what the Strength Of Schedule [SOS] looked like for the teams in the East:

Team

SOS Rk

Boston 1

28

Orlando 2

22

Atlanta 3

15

Cleveland 4

27

Miami 5

9

Milwaukee 6

26

Detroit 7

4

Charlotte 8

17

Toronto

16

Indiana

20

Chicago

3

New York

5

Washington

10

Philadelphia

6

New Jersey

18

PART THREE

Looking at the injury situation for the Raptors and the other teams around them in the standings:

Team

Significant Player Loss To Injury

Milwaukee 6

M-Redd [A]

Detroit 7

R-Hamilton [A]; T-Prince [C]; B-Gordon [B]; W-Bynum [B]

Charlotte 8

None

Toronto

J-Calderon [B]; R-Evans [C]

Indiana

M-Dunleavy [A]; D-Granger [C]

Chicago

T-Thomas [C]

New York

None

Washington

A-Jamison [A]

Philadelphia

L-Williams [C]

Legend: A – Missed games earlier in the season; B – Missed recent games; C – On-going absence.

PART FOUR

For all practical intents and purposes:

Team

Expectations Moving Forward, Relative To The Raptors

Milwaukee 6

Struggle to maintain present position

Detroit 7

Maintain present position

Charlotte 8

Maintain present position, if remain injury-free

Toronto

 

Indiana

Improve upon present position, if D-Granger returns

Chicago

Improve upon present position, if T-Thomas returns

New York

Improve upon present position, if remain injury-free

Washington

Improve upon present position, if remain injury-free

Philadelphia

Improve upon present position, if L-Williams returns

PART FIVE

As has been said in this corner, since the 2009 NBA Draft took place …

when the Raptors chose not to trade down from the No. 9 position [overall], in an effort to re-invigorate their squad with:

* An additional NBA-calibre player obtained in a trade down

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, which could have been used to acquire an in-coming player like Brandon Jennings, or Terrence Williams, or Earl Clark, or Rodrigue Beaubois, or Taj Gibson

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have bought with their $3.0 M ‘draft voucher’ obtained in their trade with the Miami Heat, which they could have used to acquire a player like Taj Gibson, or DeJuan Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Sam Young, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

or

The upper 2nd Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, if a lower 1st Round Pick was not available, with which they could have acquired an in-coming player like DeJaun Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

and the decisons were made by Bryan Colangelo:

1 To not re-sign Shawn Marion for the dollar amount required to retain his services;

2 To not re-sign their own unrestricted free agents [i.e. Anthony Parker and Joey Graham];

3 To sign Jay Triano [then, interim head coach] to a 3-yr contract extension;

4 To complete the series of trades which then ensued with Orlando, Dallas, Golden State and Milwaukee, in effect, exchanging the following players on the team’s 2008-2009 roster with their corresponding counterparts [i.e. coded by colour] on the current version:

2008-2009

2009-2010

Calderon

Calderon

Parker

DeRozan

Marion

Turkoglu

Bosh

Bosh

Bargnani

Bargnani

Ukic

Jack

Kapono

Belinelli

Graham

Wright

Humphries

Johnson

Voskuhl

Nesterovic

Banks

Banks

Douby

Weems

M-Bonsu

M-Bonsu

Jawai

Evans

O’Bryant

O’Bryant

… that actually did little overall to substantially improve the Quality Depth on their team, despite what the fanbase was originally led to believe by the Raptors’ Management Team and assorted NBA “observers” who extolled the influx of supposed “talent” associated with these new additions to the roster …

this year’s Raptors team is no better than a number of other middle-of-the- pack outfits in the Eastern Conference and, in fact, should be expected to struggle to make the playoffs this season.

Those who thought/think that this edition of the Toronto Raptors has UNDER-ACHIEVED, to this point, this season …

Play Audio

Now

were/are fundamentally INCORRECT.

This is precisely WHO and WHAT the Raptors are, and approximately WHERE the 2009-2010 version of their team SHOULD BE expected to finish this season, based on the personnel [i.e. players and coaches] on its roster.

Where would the Raptors be today, if …

Saturday, December 12th, 2009

Following last night’s deflating home loss to the Atlanta Hawks, the conference standings in the East look like this:

Eastern W L PCT GB CONF DIV HOME ROAD L 10 STREAK
Boston1 18 4 0.818 0.0 12-3 5-0 8-3 10-1 9-1 W 9
Orlando2 17 6 0.739 1.5 13-3 3-1 7-2 10-4 7-3 L 2
Atlanta3 16 6 0.727