khandor’s sports blog

Those expecting the Lakers to take a precipitous tumble in the Western Conference standings this season … in the aftermath of “whiffing” on a trade for Chris Paul [PG] and then sending Lamar Odom [SF/PF] to Dallas … do not have an accurate understanding of just how good Devin Ebanks [SF, 2nd-yr] is most likely going to be for their team this year.

Once Andrew Bynum’s suspension finishes and Kobe’s wrist injury fully heals, the following line-up for the Lakers:

STARTERS
Derek Fisher + Kobe Bryant + Devin Ebanks + Pau Gasol + Andrew Bynum

KEY SUBS
Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, Metta World Peace, Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy

RESERVES
Jason Kapono and Luke Walton

EXTRAS
Darius Morris, Andrew Goudelock and Derrick Caracter [inj.]

is still going to be formidable … as the bolded players above are actually much better than many so-called [but really illegitimate] NBA observers realize.

After the Lakers eventually use their large Traded Player Exception – obtained in exchange for Mr. Odom – it should come as no surprise at all to see this team finish with the best W-L record in the Pacific Division, once again.

Mitch Kupchak [GM] has already proven that he knows how to construct a top flight NBA team … as long as Jim Buss is able to stay out of the way.

Update:

For the benefit of those who might need some further clarification, here’s the follow-up comment which yours truly left a few minutes ago, in a related thread at PBT …

Devin Ebanks [i.e. think of a better, more physical, version of Trevor Ariza] and Darius Morris [i.e. think of a young, poor man's version of Tony Parker] are both very solid young players with the ability to make positive contributions to this year’s Lakers team which desperately needed an infusion of youth on the heels of last season’s disappointing end. Josh McRoberts is the type of banger who Mike Brown has made very effective use of in the past [i.e. think of a more athletic version of Anderson Varejao]. Troy Murphy [PF] playing beside either Andrew Bynum or Gasol is going to be a very potent player [i.e. think of the double-double machine who was a former starter for the Pacers]. Once the Lakers decide to use their TPE … and it doesn’t need to be in regards to acquiring a stud like Dwight Howard [C] … their roster is still going to be formidable for the Western Conference Playoffs, as long as they are healthy. Although they won’t play the type of artistically pleasing basketball they did under the direction of Dr. Phil, they will still be a highly effective team, under the capable direction of a defensive-minded head coach like Mike Brown. Those expecting a rapid Lakers’ demise this season will most likely be quite disappointed by season’s end.

With last night’s 16th loss of the season …

Toronto Raptors 95
MIAMI HEAT 115
Game Summary

the most important question for the Toronto Raptors is:

Q1. Should this team, as constructed, be expected to improve substantially over the course of the next 55 games, or not?

A1. Well …

PART ONE

This is what the Eastern Conference standings look like today:

PART TWO

As of Fri Dec 11 2009, this is what the Strength Of Schedule [SOS] looked like for the teams in the East:

PART THREE

Looking at the injury situation for the Raptors and the other teams around them in the standings:

PART FOUR

For all practical intents and purposes:

PART FIVE

As has been said in this corner, since the 2009 NBA Draft took place …

when the Raptors chose not to trade down from the No. 9 position [overall], in an effort to re-invigorate their squad with:

* An additional NBA-calibre player obtained in a trade down

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, which could have been used to acquire an in-coming player like Brandon Jennings, or Terrence Williams, or Earl Clark, or Rodrigue Beaubois, or Taj Gibson

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have bought with their $3.0 M ‘draft voucher’ obtained in their trade with the Miami Heat, which they could have used to acquire a player like Taj Gibson, or DeJuan Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Sam Young, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

or

The upper 2nd Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, if a lower 1st Round Pick was not available, with which they could have acquired an in-coming player like DeJaun Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

and the decisons were made by Bryan Colangelo:

1 To not re-sign Shawn Marion for the dollar amount required to retain his services;

2 To not re-sign their own unrestricted free agents [i.e. Anthony Parker and Joey Graham];

3 To sign Jay Triano [then, interim head coach] to a 3-yr contract extension;

4 To complete the series of trades which then ensued with Orlando, Dallas, Golden State and Milwaukee, in effect, exchanging the following players on the team’s 2008-2009 roster with their corresponding counterparts [i.e. coded by colour] on the current version:

… that actually did little overall to substantially improve the Quality Depth on their team, despite what the fanbase was originally led to believe by the Raptors’ Management Team and assorted NBA “observers” who extolled the influx of supposed “talent” associated with these new additions to the roster …

this year’s Raptors team is no better than a number of other middle-of-the- pack outfits in the Eastern Conference and, in fact, should be expected to struggle to make the playoffs this season.

Those who thought/think that this edition of the Toronto Raptors has UNDER-ACHIEVED, to this point, this season …

were/are fundamentally INCORRECT.

This is precisely WHO and WHAT the Raptors are, and approximately WHERE the 2009-2010 version of their team SHOULD BE expected to finish this season, based on the personnel [i.e. players and coaches] on its roster.

Following last night’s deflating home loss to the Atlanta Hawks, the conference standings in the East look like this:

Prior to the 2009 NBA Draft, however, these were some of the players who were recommended in this space for the Toronto Raptors:

Terrence Williams [OG-SF, New Jersey, 1st Rd]
Earl Clark [SF-PF, Phoenix, 1st Rd]
Derrick Brown [SF-PF, Charlotte, 2nd Rd]
Taj Gibson [PF, Chicago, 1st Rd]
Dante Cunningham [PF, Portland, 2nd Rd]
Marcus Thornton [OG, New Orleans, via Miami, 2nd Rd]
Nando De Colo [OG-SF, San Antonio, 2nd Rd]

Prior to the 4-team trade that involved the Raptors, Magic, Mavericks and Grizzlies, it was also suggested here that Toronto should:

If the Raptors would have followed those recommendations, instead of:

culminating with a roster that looks like the middle column in the following chart:

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Yours truly thinks they would.

It’s by developing and then implementing a sound Basketball Philosophy … which emphasizes the importance of [I] Team Defense, [II] Rebounding, and [III] Shared Team Offense, in this order … maintaining general roster stability, from one season to the next, while acquiring Quality Depth, and obtaining the services of an experienced and successful NBA head coach, that the Raptors would be able to fundamentally alter the direction of their franchise and construct the type of championship-calibre organization which UFA’s like Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Dwyane Wade, and LeBron James, etc., would willingly CHOOSE to play for, if they have their druthers, either, this coming off season or further down-the-road.

Last season the Raptors finished 4th in the Atlantic Division and 13th, overall, in the Eastern Conference [i.e. 33-49/402].

Offensively, they scored 99.0 Points Per Game [16th in the NBA].
Defensively, they allowed 101.9 Points Per Game [20th in the NBA].
In terms of Points Scored Differential, they finished with a Per Game mark of -2.9 [23rd in the NBA].  
In terms of Rebounding Differential, they finished with a Per Game mark of -1.5 [22nd in the NBA].

Thus far, this season, Toronto is:

* 2nd in the Atlantic Division and 10th, overall, in the Eastern Conference [i.e. 7-11/.389];

* 4th in Points Scored Per Game [104.9]

* 29th in Points Allowed Per Game [109.4]

* 23rd in Points Scored Differential Per Game [-4.4]

* 20th in Rebounding Differential Per Game [-0.4] 

How much is the roster really improved for the 2009-2010 Toronto Raptors, compared with the 2008-2009 version?

The main problem the Raptors have right now is rooted in the Basketball Philosophy of its Management Team which continues to place far too much emphasis on the Individual Offensive ability of specific players and not nearly enough emphasis on those same players’ Individual Defensive ability.

Until the Raptors add more multi-dimensional players to their roster with the ability to defend their position[s] effectively AND reward those players with additional playing time during important parts of games, Toronto will continue to be little more than a high scoring [entertaining?] Treadmill Team.

Philadelphia 76ers 79 [2-0]
TORONTO RAPTORS 84 [0-2]
Game Scoreboard

What exactly do you need to know about this specific game?

… as Part II to the back-2-back affairs which these teams played Tuesday [in London ON] and Wednesday [in Toronto ON]

1. Bosh, Turkoglu and Wright were out, once again, for the Raptors; while Rodney Carney was absent again for the 76ers.

2. The back-up players for each of these two teams are just THAT … i.e. ”Back-up quality” players, in the NBA, as opposed to being “Starter quality” players who “just happen to be coming off the bench”.

3. At the 10:23 mark of the 4th quarter, the score was tied 64-64, with the following line-ups on the court:

Philadelphia
PG/Sean Singletary,  OG/Royal Ivey, SF/Brandon Bowman, PF/Jason Smith and C/Marreese Speights

Toronto
PG/Jarrett Jack, OG/Quincy Douby, SF/Sonny Weems, PF/Amir Johnson and C/Patrick O’Bryant

from which point, each team made the following substitutions during the final stages of the game:

Philadelphia
PG/Jrue Holiday [for Sean Singletary]
SF/Thaddeus Young [for Brandon Bowman]
PF/Brandon Bowman [for Jason Smith]

Toronto
PG/Marcus Banks [for Jarrett Jack]
OG/DeMar DeRozan [for Sonny Weems]
OG/Sonny Weems [for DeMar DeRozan]

as the 76ers proceeded to outscore the Raptors 20-15 the rest of the way … while playing on the road.

4. Philadelphia and Toronto are each going to have their hands full this season qualifying for the playoffs in the EC with [at least] the likes of Boston, Orlando, Cleveland, Atlanta, Washington, Miami, Chicago, Charlotte and Detroit all appearing to superior personnel, from top-to-bottom, on their roster. 

A video recap of last night’s action …

Toronto Raptors 98
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 107
Game Scoreboard

Game 1 of the pre-season schedule is now in the books for the Raptors and the 76ers. 

Initial observations from last night:

Both of these squads have a long way to go if they are going to contend for a playoff spot in the EC this season.

PS. Pre-season Game 1, video recap …

The 5 teams in the Atlantic Division finished in the following order last season:

1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756, 2nd East, Lost 2nd Round 
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500, 6th East, Lost 1st Round  
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415, 3rd East, Missed Playoffs
4. Toronto Raptors, 33-49/.402, 13th East, Missed Playoffs
5. New York Knicks, 32-50/.390, 14th East, Missed Playoffs

At this point in the off season, the teams have made the following player personnel changes:

BOSTON CELTICS
Significant Losses
1. Leon Powe [PF], UFA
2. Mikki Moore [PF-C], UFA
3. Stephon Marbury [PG]
4. Gabe Pruitt [PG-OG]

Significant Adds
1. Lester Hudson/2nd Round Draft Pick [No. 58, overall]
2. Rasheed Wallace, UFA
3. Sheldon Williams, UFA
4. Marquis Daniels, UFA

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Significant Losses
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. Andre Miller [PG], UFA
3. Theo Ratliff [PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Elton Brand [PF], returns from injury
2. Jason Smith [PF-C], returns from injury
3. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
4. Jrue Holiday [PG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 19, overall]  
5. Rodney Carney [SF], UFA

NEW JERSEY NETS
Significant Losses
1. Vince Carter [SF-OG], trade
2. Ryan Anderson [PF], trade

Significant Adds
1. Terrence Williams [SF-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 11, overall]
2. Courtney Lee [OG], trade
3. Rafer Alston [PG], trade
4. Tony Battie [PF-C], trade

TORONTO RAPTORS
Significant Losses
1. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
2. Shawn Marion [PF-SF], UFA/Sign & trade
3. Kris Humphries [PF], trade
4. Nathan Jawai [PF-C], trade
5. Anthony Parker [OG-SF-PG], UFA
6. Joey Graham [SF], UFA
7. Roko Ukic [PG], trade
8. Carlos Delfino [SF-OG], trade

Significant Adds
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 9, overall]
3. Hedo Turkoglu [SF], Sign & trade
4. Antoine Wright [SF-OG], trade
5. Jarrett Jack [PG-OG], RFA
6. Marco Belinelli [OG-SF-PG], trade
7. Rasho Nesterovic [C-PF], UFA
8. Amir Johnson [PF], trade 

NEW YORK KNICKS
Significant Losses
1. Quentin Richardson [SF-OG], trade
2. Chris Wilcox, PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Danilo Gallinari [SF-PF], returns from injury
2. Jordan Hill [PF-C], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 8, overall]
3. Toney Douglas [PG-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 29, overall]
4. Darko Milicic [PF-C], trade
5. Sun Yue [PG], UFA

While several NBA observers seem to think the Raptors SHOULD be much improved this coming season, based on the wholesale changes made to their roster … this corner does not necessarily share that same opinion, when evaluated against the LOSSESS & ADDS of the other teams in their Division.

Q1. Have the Raptors improved, overall, from last season, relative to their competition?

A1. Maybe; maybe not … is the correct answer, at this point.

The Knicks and Nets are in re-building mode, and the Raptors SHOULD have been expected to finish this coming season in NO WORSE than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Celtics and, possibly, the 76ers … even if they would have done “nothing” substantive to improve their team this summer.

However, given that doing “nothing” was in fact the OPPOSITE of what the Raptors decided to do this off season … i.e. see above … it SHOULD now be EXPECTED that this supposedly improved team SHOULD finish NO WORSE than in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Celtics.

Once this expectation is established, what then becomes interesting is …

if the divisional standings eventually look something like this:

ATLANTIC
1 Boston
2 Toronto or Philadelphia
3 Philadelphia or Toronto
4 New York or New Jersey
5 New Jersey or New York

and the conference standings eventually look something like this:

SOUTHEAST
1 Orlando
2 Atlanta or Miami or Washington
3 Miami Atlanto or Washington
4 Washington or Atlanta or Miami
5 Charlotte

CENTRAL
1 Cleveland
2 Detroit or Chicago or Indiana
3 Chicago or Detroit or Indiana
4 Indiana or Detroit or Chicago
5 Milwaukee

and the playoff race eventually looks something like this:

Eastern Conference
1-2-3 Orlando – High End, Southeast
1-2-3 Cleveland – High End, Central
1-2-3 Boston – High End, Atlantic

4-5-6 Atlanta – Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Miami – Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Washington – Upper Middle, Southeast

7-8-9-10-11-12 Detroit – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Chicago – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Indiana – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Toronto – Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Philadelphia – Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Charlotte – Low End, Southwest

12-13-14-15 Milwaukee – Low End, Central
12-13-14-15 New York – Low End, Atlantic
12-13-14-15 New Jersey – Low End, Atlantic

indicating, perhaps, that the relative strength of each division may be shifting this season:

#1. Southeast
#2. Central
#3. Atlantic 

IF a scenario like this is eventually what plays out this season, then, how much will the Raptors really have improved this summer, relative to the other teams in their Division and the Eastern Conference, as a whole?

Earlier this summer, this was Philadelphia’s projected roster:

Tier 2B – Questionable Playoff Contenders

With this news today, however …

76ers agree to terms with Carney

… there is now, at least, a good possibility that Philadelphia might actually choose to field a line-up with a different configuration, when the regular season starts, which looks like this:

Key Differences

• Shifting Andre Iguodala to the Starting OG position.
• Shifting Thaddeus Young to the Starting SF postion.
• Shifting Elton Brand into the Starting PF position.
• Shifting Willie Green into the Back-up OG position.
• Shifting Jason Kapono into an Extra OG position.
• Inserting Rodney Carney into the Back-up SF position.

… in which case, the 76ers would warrant proper re-classification into the slightly higher category of Tier 2A – Possible Playoff Contenders, i.e. along with Atlanta, Miami, Chicago, Detroit, Charlotte, Toronto and Washington.

The moves which Ed Stefanski has made, thus far, this summer, in an effort to continue the gradual development of the 76ers have all been solid:

1. Hiring a sound, experienced NBA head coach [i.e. Eddie Jordan].

2. Trading Reggie Evans [an excess Back-up PF/Rebounder] for Jason Kapono [a Back-up SF-OG/Spot-up Shooter].

3. Drafting a young athletic PG-of-the-future with good size.

4. Allowing Andre Miller [veteran PG] to leave, via UFA.

5. Re-signing Royal Ivey [still youngish veteran 3rd-string PG] to a cost-effective contract, via UFA.

6. Re-signing Rodney Carney [still youngish veteran Back-up SF-OG/Defender-Rebounder-3PT-Shooter] to a cost-effective contract, via UFA.

This is now [I] a VERY athletic group of players, with [II] good size [especially, at the PG, OG, SF and C positions], [III] an elevated FG shooting percentage [on the whole], [IV] a solid core of returnees, and [V] a significant number of highly serviceable new additions that were not part of last year’s squad, including:

#1/Elton Brand/returning from an injury
#2/Jason Smith/returning from an injury
#3/Jrue Holiday/2009 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 17]
#4/Jason Kapono/via trade
#5/Primoz Brezec/via UFA; and,
#6/Rodney Carney/via UFA.

The group of players and coaches now on Philly’s roster should be able to compete night-in and night-out for a 3rd consecutive berth in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.  

As different NBA off-season previews begin to surface in the blogosphere …

Bleacher Report
Pro Basketball Fans
Sports Alchemist

it can be very interesting to see which specific teams are perceived by different NBA observers to be head and shoulders above their immediate competition.

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Despite what some observers may perceive to be a heightened level of NBA  ”talent” on the Raptors’ roster this season, at this point, at least, this corner would suggest treading softly, instead, if your plan involves jumping on the Dino’s mounting bandwagon, as a former lower-echelon team with a legit chance to make major W-L gains in the standings.  

Last year the Raptors started their season 8-9, fired their head coach [Sam Mitchell], and proceeded to lose 40 of their remaining 65 games [.385], to miss the playoffs completely; while, the 76ers began their campaign 9-14, fired their coach [Maurice Cheeks], and then went on to win 32 of their remaining 59 games [.542], to make the playoffs as the 6th seed.

Debate in the Paint: Fear the Raptors
Debate in the Paint: Raptors just can’t escape mediocrity

Hmmmmmm …

———-

“The proof of the pudding is in the eating.” – Anonymous

Matching-up the Raptors’ current roster with the end-of-season version for the 2008-2009 campaign, on a position-by-position basis, looks like this:

While it’s relatively easy to see how other NBA observers can feel that the Raptors have increased their Perceived Talent Level [PTL] by a substantial amount this off season, when a comparative eye is then cast further backwards, to the previous year [2007-2008]:

and, ultimately, to the watershed 2006-2007 season: 

the picture produced is somewhat different.

Reviewing ALL 3 of these comparisons, at-once, it would be more accurate to say that the current roster has:

* MORE talent than the 2008-2009 version [33 wins];

* SLIGHTLY MORE talent than the 2007-2008 version [41 wins]; and,

* SLIGHTLY LESS talent than the 2006-2007 version [47 wins].