khandor’s sports blog

At the 35 game mark this season, the Cavaliers’ W-L record looks like this:

8 Wins, 27 Losses, .229 Win%

However …

When you compare how Cleveland has fared, so far:

IN CATEGORY 1 GAMES

- When Jamario Moon has been used for more than 20 minutes

6 Wins, 9 losses [Win%/.333];

versus, how Cleveland has fared, so far:

IN CATEGORY 2 GAMES

- When Jamario Moon has been used for less than 20 minutes [or not played at all]

2 Wins, 18 losses [Win%/.100];

the picture begins to take on a slightly different focus.

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Although Byron Scott might not actually “like” different aspects of Mr. Moon’s individual character, or his limited positionally-specific skill-set … if the Cavs’ head coach truly wants to win a higher percentage of games for what’s left of the 2010-2011 season, then … he will need to start using the resources which are at his disposal in a different way than he has since Jamario Moon was removed from the Cavaliers starting line-up, and then relegated to the bench, as a non-rotation player.

According to the most recent reports … i.e. Cavaliers-Raptors Preview … Anderson Varejao [PF-C] will not be in the line-up this evening for the visiting Cavaliers.

If the home side should manage to lose this game, with their first west coast road trip of the regular season schedule set to kick off on Monday:

Mon Nov 1 @ Sacramento Kings
Wed Nov 3 @ Utah Jazz
Fri Nov 5 @ LA Lakers
Sat Nov 6 @ Portland Trail Blazers

there’s a very real possibility for the Raptors to be 0-6, by the time they play their next game in the cozy confines of the ACC.

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The first published wagering line for this evening’s game was listed as:

Toronto -2.5/-110

The currently published wagering line, however, is now showing as:

Toronto -3.0/-108 [as of 8:15 AM]

Although this is not the NBA game which will be given out to KSS clients today, the Cavs should also be a solid selection, at +3.0 … if Byron Scott is able to use Leon Powe [PF-C], as the primary replacement for Varejao, while continuing to feature JJ Hickson [PF], as his go-to scorer, with Antawn Jamison [PF] coming off the bench … and, especially, if this line continues to rise, in their favour, as tip-off approaches. 

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Up-date:

The currently published wagering line for this game is now …

Toronto -3.5/-104 [as of 11:00 AM].

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PS. Despite what many Raptors fans might think about them, each of Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker and [even] Joey Graham [Reserve-?] are solid NBA players – if used in their proper roles – who are quite capable of succeeding on a lower tier playoff team … when working under a top notch coach and without the benefit of playing beside a ‘superstar’ teammate … in comparison with their current counterparts in Toronto’s line-up.

For considerable stretches this season … the fact is … the Cleveland Cavaliers were the best team in the NBA. During those specific periods of time the Cavs played the game in specific ways, while making excellent use of the different players on their roster, given their individual strengths and weaknesses.

Exhibit A

Exhibit B

However, in the Cavs’ abbreviated playoff run, their coaching staff made the seemingly inexplicable decision to fundamentally alter the way that they would use their collection of players in the post-season …

… which has now resulted in their elimination from further competition for the 2009-2010 NBA Championship and, quite possibly, thrown their organization into upheaval.

The best review of Cleveland’s Game 6 defeat, last night, at the hands of the Boston Celtics [NBA Champions, 2008-2009], which these eyes have seen, so far, can be found right here [by Dave, at nbaroundtable].

This is the comment which yours truly contributed:

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If Kevin Garnett had been 100% healthy this season, then … according to your truly:

1. Danny Ainge would not have traded Eddie House … and,

2. The Boston Celtics would have been THE CLEAR-CUT FAVOURITES to represent the Eastern Conference in the 2009-2010 NBA FINALS … and,

going into these playoffs,

3. This corner would have tabbed the Celtics, in advance, to defeat the Cavaliers, in this 2nd Round series, primarily, for the following 2 reasons:

i. The 5-man unit comprised of Rajon Rondo, PG + Ray Allen, OG + Paul Pierce, SF + Kevin Garnett [at 100%], PF-C + Kendrick Perkins, C-PF is, still, the VERY BEST in the NBA today;

and,

ii. Doc Rivers is a championship-winning NBA head coach, who really does know what he’s doing, in the grand scheme of things, while Mike Brown, unfortunately, is not.

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For his own peace of mind, yours truly sincerely hopes that Mike Brown has a comprehensive answer to question of:

Why exactly he chose to abandon the player substitution patterns which had previously been successful for the Cavaliers this season?

… and, instead of using some combination of those possible rotations against these Celtics, he elected to:

I. Sit out JJ Hickson, completely;

II. Limit the use of Delonte West;

III. Limit the use of Jamario Moon;

iv. Sit out Jawad Williams, completely;

v. Fail to use the front-court tandem of Shaquille O’Neal [C] and JJ Hickson [PF];

vi. Use Shaquille O’Neal for more than 20 minutes per game;

vii. etc., etc., etc., … 

because there is absolutely NO SOUND REASON, whatsoever, yours truly can suggest for him to have taken this path of action, at this point.

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The writing has been on the wall in Cleveland for, at least, the last 2 seasons and it’s always a sad day when the lives of so many otherwise good people are effected negatively and inexoribly altered because a pro sports franchise is finally perceived to have grossly under-achieved under the direction of a specific head coach [and the general manager who hired him, in the first place].

Following last night’s deflating home loss to the Atlanta Hawks, the conference standings in the East look like this:

Prior to the 2009 NBA Draft, however, these were some of the players who were recommended in this space for the Toronto Raptors:

Terrence Williams [OG-SF, New Jersey, 1st Rd]
Earl Clark [SF-PF, Phoenix, 1st Rd]
Derrick Brown [SF-PF, Charlotte, 2nd Rd]
Taj Gibson [PF, Chicago, 1st Rd]
Dante Cunningham [PF, Portland, 2nd Rd]
Marcus Thornton [OG, New Orleans, via Miami, 2nd Rd]
Nando De Colo [OG-SF, San Antonio, 2nd Rd]

Prior to the 4-team trade that involved the Raptors, Magic, Mavericks and Grizzlies, it was also suggested here that Toronto should:

If the Raptors would have followed those recommendations, instead of:

culminating with a roster that looks like the middle column in the following chart:

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Yours truly thinks they would.

It’s by developing and then implementing a sound Basketball Philosophy … which emphasizes the importance of [I] Team Defense, [II] Rebounding, and [III] Shared Team Offense, in this order … maintaining general roster stability, from one season to the next, while acquiring Quality Depth, and obtaining the services of an experienced and successful NBA head coach, that the Raptors would be able to fundamentally alter the direction of their franchise and construct the type of championship-calibre organization which UFA’s like Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Dwyane Wade, and LeBron James, etc., would willingly CHOOSE to play for, if they have their druthers, either, this coming off season or further down-the-road.

There are many different ways to track the performance of an individual player, or specific combinations of players, in a NBA game.

When you do this work, what you find, somteimes, can be most revealing.

This is what the “Substitution Chart” looks like for Wednesday’s game between Toronto and Cleveland.

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It contains a fair amount of useful information, if you take the time to examine it in detail.

For example:

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There were, at least, 2 items from Wednesday’s victory that should be of some concern to the Raptors, heading towards this evening’s Game 2, vs Memphis:

1. The way that Bosh/Bargnani performed against the Cavs’ combinations of PF/C’s not named O’Neal/Ilgauskas or Varejao/O’Neal;

and,

2. The 39:44 played by Chris Bosh … in a game where the Raptors had a 21 point lead just prior to half-time … with a brace on his right knee for precautionary reasons.

Something to keep your eyes on as Toronto makes its way through the first 20 games of its regular season schedule.

Cleveland 91
TORONTO 101
Game Scoreboard

Keys to Victory for the Raptors

1st QUARTER

* Got off to a quick start on the strength of the individual match-up advantage held by Andrea Bargnani [13 pts, superior quickness] over Shaquille O’Neal [6 pts]; TOR 27, Cle 22

2nd QUARTER

* Built a 21 point lead [00:32.9, 57-36], shooting 10-17 [58.8/FG%] while limiting their opponent to 6-22 [27.2/FG%]; TOR 57, Cle 39

3rd QUARTER

* After Cleveland completely erased the deficit by the 2:22 mark [69-69], closed the period with a 7-0 run of their own, keyed by an offensive rebound putback from Chris Bosh [2:04, 71-69]; TOR 78, Cle 71]

4th QUARTER

* Took advantage of a questionable coaching decision by Mike Brown, who inexplicably elected to open the frame by going “Big” [i.e. O'Neal and Ilgauskas vs Bargnani and Bosh], which resulted in a 9-3 run by the Raptors to start the the quarter [10:15, 87-74] 

* Hung on gamely down the stretch, despite Cleveland cutting the margin to just 6 points [1:37]

OVERALL

Effectively used multiple pairings of Bigs:

PF AND C, +/-
Bosh and Bargnani, +12
Bosh and Nesterovic, +3
Johnson and Bargnani, +3
Turkoglu and Johnson, +2
Bargnani and Nesterovic, +2
Johnson and Bosh, + 1
Turkoglu and Nesterovic, 0
Wright and Nesterovic, 0 
Turkoglu and Bosh, -3
Wright and Bargnani, -3
Turkoglu and Bosh, -7

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