khandor’s sports blog

An accurate understanding of what exactly is going on these days in Raptorville is not arrived at easily for many of the team’s rabid fans who are active participants in the on-line hoops community. Amidst the general euphoria that has taken hold in the aftermath of last week’s seemingly stunning 4-team trade extravaganza with Dallas, Orlando and Memphis … which netted the Raptors:

* Hedo Turkoglu [F, Orlando, UFA]
* Antoine Wright [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season]
* Devean George [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season], and
* Preserved their right to use the Mid Level Exception [MLE], the Low Level Exception [LLE], and exercise their [Larry] Bird Rights towards resigning their own Unrestricted Free Agents [UFA]

at the expense of:

* Shawn Marion [Sign & Trade with Orlando, UFA]
* Kris Humphries [trade with Dallas; injured much of last season]
* Nathan Jawai [trade with Dallas; disabled much of last season]
* 2nd Round Draft Pick/2016 [trade with Dallas]
* Cash Considerations [trade with Dallas] 

The stark reality of this team’s current situation is perhaps best reflected in the bright lights of the following 5 observations:

PART ONE
The post-trade outlook for the Raptors which was first put together by “Dave” [nbaroundtable, Thu July 9], extolling the possible virtues:

Where do the Raptors go from here?

PART TWO
The specific comment which “Dave” then left in a different thread on his blog, later that same afternoon, indicating his actual thoughts on their chances to succeed with their current roster configuration:

———-

Four team trade: Shawn Marion to Dallas
2011/12

This is the Raptors fail safe option. When they fail, and they will fail, they need to have this option open to them and then use this option.

This means no extra contracts that last beyond two years. I will dislike pretty much any contract that goes beyond two seasons. As long as the contract is than two seasons, spending that money doesn’t bother me in the slightest.

Dead End

The Raptors are going nowhere, and they need a miracle to happen for this plan to have any chance of working out. The Raptors are going to run into [sic] dead end.

Now, it’s time just to sit back and let things play out. Things will not improve until Colangelo figures out Bargnani isn’t a cornerstone of this franchise … until that happens, there’s nothing else that can be done to put the Raptors on the right road.

The Raptors can’t get out of the corner that they’ve boxed themselves into, until Bargnani is moved on. Any aspirations for a title are on hold until this happens.

———-  

PART THREE
The specific comment which was made on this blog [July 11, 11:35 AM], by yours truly, that addressed the supposed “Qualitative Improvement” of the Raptors current roster pieces in comparison with last season’s end-of-year squad, pertaining to the question of:

———-

Which team made out best from 4-team trade?
IMO, the Raptors have made upgrades in certain areas thus far but it would be a mistake in judgment to assess this improvement as being “a lot better“, just yet:

No BEFORE ADV AFTER

1 Calderon = Calderon
2 Parker <– Wright … AP is significantly better
3 Marion = Turkoglu … Turkoglu is NOT significantly better
4 Bosh = Bosh
5 Bargnani = Bargnani
—————————-
6 Ukic = Ukic
7 Kapono –> DeRozan * … cyclical due to draft
8 Graham = George … Devean is NOT significantly better
9 Humphries = Evans … Reggie is NOT significantly better
10 O’Bryant –> Nesterovic … Rasho is much better!
—————————-
11 Douby = Delfino … is different but NOT much better
12 Mensah-Bonsu = Mensah-Bonsu
—————————-
13 Banks = Banks
14 Jawai ? Barnes … jury still out on Nathan
15 Voskuhl = O’Bryant

Those who are looking at these changes in an excessively positive light are the ones looking through rose-coloured spectacles.

———-

PART FOUR
The Shifting Player Personnel Chart that was constructed by yours truly yesterday:

which shows the drastic player changes that have happened with the Raptors for each of the past two seasons. 

PART FIVE
The glaring RED ALERT that was issued on Sunday by David Berri [i.e. noted economist, NBA "sage & soothsayer", author of The Wages of Wins Journal]:

Dashing Hope in Toronto
Not a Pretty Picture in Toronto

When we put the whole picture together, it appears the Raptors will employ the following starting line-up in 2009-10: Calderon (PG), Wright and/or DeRozan (SG), Turkoglu (SF), Bosh (PF), Bargnani [C].  Last season the NBA veterans in this line-up combined to produce fewer than 30 wins. So unless these players improve dramatically, or the team finds very productive players off the bench, it’s hard to see how this team improves dramatically.  And that’s true even if Delfino returns to Toronto (although if Evans returns to what we saw in the past there might be some hope this team can get past 40 wins).

All of this means that

1. Turkoglu will be seeing much more money in 2009-10, but probably far fewer wins.
2. Bargnani will also see much more money, but it seems unlikely he is ever going to produce many wins.
3. Bosh will see even more money after this next season, but if the Raptors don’t approach 45 or 50 wins (which seems likely) then it seems unlikely that the money Bosh is paid in the future is going to be paid by the Raptors.
4. So it looks likely the Raptors record performance in 2007-08 will stand for awhile.  In other words, if Bosh departs this team in 2010, then rebuilding will probably continue beyond 2009-10.
5. And this means — assuming the Raptors don’t make any major change to this team — the fans of the Raptors will keep paying money to see a team that’s not contending for a title.

———-

Experience says that when disparate individuals like:

1. “Dave” [nbaroundtable] … who combines statistics with Basketball Acumen;

2. khandor [that's me ] … who relies primarily on Basketball Acumen;

and,

3. David Berri … who relies heavily on a statistical approach to the analysis of on-court production for players in the NBA;

actually arrive at a similar conclusion … which is essentially opposed to the GENERAL CONSENSUS that exists in Raptorville today … it portends of difficult times ahead for this team in the coming season.

In the best interests of the franchise, let’s hope that all three of these “stray birds” are eventually proven to be wrong in their assessment of the team. 

Prior to the recent transaction between the Raptors [Bryan Colangelo], Mavericks [Donnie Nelson], Magic [Otis Smith & Dave Twardzik] and Grizzlies [Chris Wallace], this is what each of those team’s rosters looked like:

Coming out the other side, today, this is what they look like now, respectively:

Legend:
UFA - Unrestricted Free Agent; RFA - Restricted Free Agent; R - Rookie Player; TPE - Traded Player Exception; DP - Draft Pick; CC - Cash Considerations

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The Perspective From This Corner

The fact is, however, that the Cleveland Cavaliers [Danny Ferry] MAY have benefitted most of all from this specific transaction, as they subsequently gained unfettered access to Anthony Parker, the exact sort of complementary wing player they were searching for … to augment LeBron James & Co., in an effort to win their 1st NBA Championship. 

Your feedback is welcome in the “Comments” section.

Araujo pick set off chain reaction
I‘ve always considered the drafting of Rafael Araujo the Raptors’ original sin. It set off a chain reaction the team has never really recovered from.

Araujo, as every Raptors fan knows, was picked No.8 overall by Rob Babcock, who promised on draft night that the big Brazilian was “Not a stiff.”

Well, he was a stiff. One with small hands and short arms and - quite literally - no upside.

Missing at No.8 isn’t ordinarily the end of the world. It happens. And it says A LOT about the NBA that having the chance to pick the eighth - or in this year’s draft - the ninth best player in the world in a given year carries with it no certainty of success.

Tough league.

But the 2004 draft had its share of good players. One of them - Andre Iguodala - was taken ninth by the Philadelphia 76ers, as every Raptors fan knows.

Which is the problem: It’s not so much that Araujo was a bust, it’s that Iguodala represents exactly and - short of Kobe/LeBron/Wade - I mean exactly what the franchise needs.

He slashes. He defends other wings. He’s a one-man fastbreak. He’s a passable spot-up shooter. He’s very good playmaker and passer. He’s relatively affordable, at $12-million a year, which is pretty good value for a Tier 1A wing player in the NBA.

But you know all this.

Still, I’ve been thinking about Iguodala as I’ve [been] watching Mickael Pietrus with the Orlando Magic.

———-

In contrast, what this corner sees is that the specific time-line … i.e. Chain Reaction … for the de-evolution of the Raptors looks like this:

* Fired Glen Grunwald, Apr 1, 2004
* Hired Rob Babcock, Jun 7, 2004
* Drafted Rafael Araujo [No. 8], Jun 24 2004
* Hired Sam Mitchell, Jun 29, 2004
* Traded Vince Carter, Dec 17, 2004 [for exactly what, in return?]
* Fired Babcock, Jan 26, 2006
* Hired Bryan Colangelo, Feb 28, 2006
* Drafted Andrea Bargnani [No. 1], Jun 28, 2006
* Traded Charlie Villanueva for TJ Ford, Jul 1, 2006
* Traded for Carlos Delfino, Jun 15, 2007
* Signed Jason Kapono, Jul 11, 2007
* Traded TJ Ford & Rasho Nesterovic & No. 17 Draft Pick for Jermaine O’Neal & No. 41 Draft Pick, Jun 26, 2008
* Signed Hassan Adams, Jul 8, 2008
* Signed Roko Ukic, Jul 16, 2008
* Signed Will Solomon, Jul 28, 2008
* Bought out Jorge Garbajosa, Aug 10, 2008
* Fired Mitchell, Dec 3, 2008

33-49/.402, 14th place in the Eastern Conference

———-

April 1, 2004 [and, then, Dec 17] will live-on, in infamy … as a sort of very real, cruel JOKE … in the history of this franchise, purpetrated by Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment [MLSE, i.e. Richard Peddie & Larry Tanenbaum]. 

FINAL SCORE: TOR 101, Uta 109
Complete Game Info

These are the different 5-Man Units which the Jazz and Raptors chose to play in the 4th quarter of yesterday’s game:

This is how the Minutes Played [MP], at specific positions, broke down for each player:

Utah

Brevin Knight/PG, 01:43
Jarron Collins/C, 02:20
Matt Harpring/PF, 02:20
———————————–
Deron Williams/PG, 10:17
Kyle Korver/OG, 12:00
Andrei Kirilenko/SF, 12:00
Paul Millsap/PF, 09:40
Mehmet Okur/C, 09:40

Toronto

Jose Calderon/PG, 09:29
Anthony Parker/PG, 02:31
Anthony Parker/OG, 05:46
Jason Kapono/OG, 07:14
Joey Graham/SF, 07:37
Shawn Marion/PF, 03:39
Shawn Marion/SF, 03:23
Chris Bosh/C, 03:39
Chris Bosh/PF, 08:21 
Andrea Bargnani/C, 08:21

————————–

Key Utah Possession Outcomes during the final 01:35 of the 4th Q

01:35 Deron Williams Made 22-ft Jumpshot [P & R/P isolation vs Switch by Bargnani/checking MIllsap] 

01:00 Deron Williams Maked 1 FT [fouled by Bargnani, P & R/P isolation vs Switch by Bargnani/checking Kirilenko]

00:31 Mehmet Okur Made Layup [P & R isolation vs Switch by Bosh/checking Okur and Bargnani failed to Rotate-to-Help Calderon vs Okur]

—————————–

If the Raptors would have used a combination of the following 6 players, instead:

Calderon/PG
Parker/OG or PG [solid Rebounder/Defender at the PG spot]
Graham/OG or SF [solid Rebounder/Defender at the OG or SF spot]
Marion/PF or SF [solid Rebounder/Defender at the PF or the SF spot]
Mensah-Bonsu/PF [solid Rebounder/Defender at the PF spot]
Bosh/C [solid Rebounder/Defender at the C spot]

during the final 06:00 minutes, the outcome would have been different for the home team.

As long as the Raptors continue to assemble a roster of players like this and then use them in the way they are right now … which is how they’ve operated for much of this disappointing season to-date … they will continue to come up short on a consistent basis against the High End Teams in this league.

Despite what others might think … the Raptors are NOT repeatedly losing games this season on account of how Jose Calderon and/or Chris Bosh are performing at the Point Guard spot and the Center position, respectively.

They are losing games on account of what’s happening on the floor when:

1. Chris Bosh is NOT at the Center position;

2. Jose Calderon, or Anthony Parker, is NOT at the Point Guard position; and,

3. Jason Kapono is NOT sitting on the bench … beside Andrea Bargnani [with Roko Ukic, Marcus Banks, Jake Voskuhl, Jermaine O'Neal, Will Solomon, Hassan Adams, and Nathan Jawai], from an effective Rebounding & Team Defense perspective.

—————————-

PS. FWIW, you can decide for yourself who you think SHOULD bare Most of The Responsibility for this … i.e. Sam Mitchell, Jay Triano or BRYAN COLANGELO.

Watching a game like this one, last night, lays bare many of the problems with the Raptors’ organization, in comparison with an outfit like the Lakers.

The next BIG game on the NBA schedule happens this evening, in Boston, between the Lakers and the Celtics … and the Showtime.v2.crew was clearly in a Resting/Conservation State for last night’s encounter with the Raptors.

FINAL SCORE: RAPTORS 107, Lakers 115
Game Info

Despite the fact that Misters Gasol, Bryant and Odom played 44, 37 and 33 minutes, respectively, in no way were the Lakers’ three best players in last night’s game pushed to give their maximum effort. In reality, the Lakers cruised through much of this game, i.e. just doing enough to get buy … despite the absence of Andrew Bynum and the fact they were trailing on the scoreboard until well into the 4th quarter … with 11 players seeing action altogether, 10 of them for at least 8 minutes, and 9 of those for a minimum of 13:52 [i.e. Josh Powell].

When the game needed to be won, however … in the final 4 minutes of the 4th quarter … Kobe & Co. simply put their collective foot on the gas, and accelerated away from the Raptors.

Whoever thought that the Raptors’ player roster heading into this season would be good enough to compete with a LEGITIMATE CONTENDER for the NBA Title, like the LA Lakers:

was simply looking at the situation with their Eyes Wide Shut, including the Raptors’ President/GM, Bryan Colangelo.

The stark reality is that this Raptors’ team has only Andrea Bargnani [No. 1/2006] and Nathan Jawai [No. 41/2008] to show from the last 3 NBA Drafts [i.e. 2008, 2007 & 2006], and precious few tangible assets that are coveted by other organizations across the League upon which it can realistically hope to build a solid franchise for years to come.

After fielding a competitive roster a year ago which looked like this:

Sam Mitchell, Alex English, Mike Evans, Jay Triano
————————————————
Ford-TJ, Parker-A, Delfino-C, Moon-J & Bosh-C
————————————————
Calderon-J, Kapono-J, Graham-J, Bargnani-A & Nesterovic-R
————————————————
Martin-D, Garbajosa-J, Baston-M, Humphries-K, Brezic-P,

12 months later … the Raptors currently have a 19-32/.373 W-L record, are in last place in the Atlantic Division, are in 14th place overall in the Eastern Conference [out of 15 teams], and have an Interim Head Coach, Jay Triano, who has actually been a member of their coaching staff since the days of Lenny Wilkens.

Due to the way in which MLSE chooses to operate its pro sports franchises - please see the Toronto Maple Leafs, as a prime example - there is absolutely ZERO ["0"] chance that Raptors’ President/GM [Mr. Colangelo] will be the one who takes full responsibility [and the fall] for this sorry situation.

The best that Raptors fans everywhere can hope for now …

* With Jose Calderon on the shelf yet again with his recurring hamstring injury

* With Chris Bosh on the shelf now with a sprained right knee

* With Kris Humphries on the shelf with a broken fibula

and,

* With an oft-injured $21 Million per year player like Jermaine O’Neal on the books, in the first place, until the summer of 2010

… is that he [Mr. Colangelo] doesn’t panic and, instead, makes a worthwhile transaction or two during this next off-season, in and around the 2009 NBA Draft and the UFA signing period.

The current season for the Raptors is now officially a Lost Cause.

—————————-

FWIW …

know, as well, that the Raptors did, in fact, lose the battle in almost every meaningful statistical category for last night’s game.

As of this morning Toronto is 11th in the Eastern Conference Standings with a 15-21/.417 Won-Lost Record.

Raptors fans everywhere …

including those who frequent RaptorsRepublic.com, Arsenalist’s old site, AltRaps.com, Raptorstalk.com, and From Deep, etc. …

were told by yours truly during the off-season and, then, throughout the pre-season:

* Exactly what would happen with the Raptors this season had Jermaine O’Neal not been brought to this team, in the first place … i.e. see how much better the mice have ‘run’, since he’s been absent from the line-up;

* What would happen to the team’s Rebounding Differential if O’Neal was the only addition to the core rotation and the appropriate adjustments were not made with the role of other Raptors, as well, e.g. Jamario Moon, Joey Graham, Kris Humphries, Anthony Parker, Jason Kapono and Andrea Bargnani;

* Who exactly Andrea Bargnani is, as a Perimeter Big, that can shoot the 3, defend an opponent’s Power-based Big on the block, keep his own check off the offensive boards, with a highly serviceable physical/mean/remorseless streak to his personality/individual game [ala Bill Laimbeer];

and,

* Who exactly Chris Bosh is, as Low-Mid Post Big that: [i] Can abuse his check when he faces up in the post; [ii] Can create open shots for his teammates … if the team’s offense is allowed to run THROUGH him in this Central Hub location; [iii] Is a solid interior defender … if he’s allowed to play behind his check on the block without having to work to a Half or Full Front position [only being asked to occupy his check from behind by rooting him off his desired sweet spot and then providing interior HELP & Shot-blocking elsewhere for his teammates [ala The Great Man, himself, Mr. Russell]; [iv] Can be a terrific REBOUNDER, when he FOCUSES his energy on this specific aspect of the game and uses his length and quickness to maximum advantage; AND, [v] Is a character guy upon whom a NBA franchise CAN BE BUILT, Steadfast and Mature beyond his years.

- Moving TJ Ford was excellent.
- Acquiring Jermaine O’Neal, in return, was not.
- Losing Rasho Nesterovic, as a highly professionl back-up Big, was unnecessary.
- Losing the No. 17 [overall] 2008 Draft Pick was unnecessary.
- Losing Jorge Garbajosa was unnecessary.
- Keeping Jason Kapono while allowing Carlos Delfino to leave, even temporarily, was not a sound move.
- Adding Hassan Adams was not a sound move.
- Going to training camp with only 13 players was not a sound move.
- Adding Roko Ukic was a sound move.
- Adding Will Solomon was cost effective.
- Adding Jake Voskuhl is a sound move.
- Moving Hassan Adams for a 2nd Rd Pick is a sound move.

Under either Sam Mitchell or Jay Triano, as is, the Raptors are a Middle-of-the-Pack team in the Eastern Conference. There are a number of these teams, in this conference, at the moment, including Miami, New Jersey, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Chicago, New York, Indiana and Charlotte.

Where the Raptors go from here, however, will be determined by the commitment of MLSE to do what’s necessary to build a high calibre NBA team in Toronto and the Basketball Acumen of the President/GM, Bryan Colangelo.

The pieces have been in place in Toronto for many moons now … they have just been wasted, to this point, that’s all, largely by mediocre/”average” management of the available resources.

Yours truly sincerely hopes that this changes, moving forward here.

By keeping Bosh, Calderon, and Bargnani together and adding other solid, young, athletic, under-the-radar but great character guys … e.g. Rodney Carney and Chris Douglas-Roberts, or Luc Richard Mbah A Moute, or Joey Dorsey, or Roy Hibbert, etc. [who were all available this past off-season] … gradually through the draft, when CB4 is in HIS prime years [i.e. 27/28-35, or so], there is no legitimate reason whatsoever this team SHOULD BE anything but an Upper Echelon outfit in the NBA.

Just because the Raptors blew the chance they had to get it right, back in Feb/2006 … doesn’t mean they HAVE to blow it again.

In contrast with some of the words and thoughts of their players and/or coaches … it says in this corner of the ethernet that the Raptors’ basketball brain-trust still doesn’t quite understand a Basic Tenet of Success for a High End team in the NBA, concerning its Principal Rotation. 

———-

O’Neal eager not to repeat same mistakes
Finally, some urgency from these Toronto Raptors.

“We talk a lot about it. We talk a lot about it. But we can’t make the same mistakes every single day. It can’t be Groundhog Day every single game,” the Raptors’ big man said yesterday as the team prepared for the Houston Rockets’ visit to Toronto tonight.

“That’s really what it has been for our team. Our team has pretty much lost games the same identical way over the last two months. We have got to figure out how to get out of it. I know you guys have heard the other players talk about it and the coaches talk about it.”

That formula for a loss: Build a lead early on, give it away in the middle two quarters, and fail to execute in the fourth quarter. The date might change, but the result rarely does.

———-

When an NBA team suffers from this specific malady … i.e. starting well but then seeing its performance/production fluxtuate erratically over the course of a game … one of the recommended cures is Adjusting its Principal Rotation such that:

1. The team’s 5 most talented players DO NOT begin the game together, as the 1st Unit …

i.e. The Raptors would accomplish this by eliminating both Jermaine O’Neal and Andrea Bargnani as Starters and, instead, using a highly serviceable role player, like Kris Humphries [PF], as the initial running mate for Chris Bosh [C];

and,

2. Utilizing the team’s most physically energetic players [who are usually its best REBOUNDERS and Defenders, as well] in a more prominent and consistent way throughout the game, either, as [i] Starters or [ii] Key Bench Subs with the 2nd Unit …

i.e.  the 7 players who SHOULD form the Principal Rotation for this team are Jose Calderon/PG, Anthony Parker/OG-PG-SF, Jamario Moon/SF-OG-PF, Joey Graham/SF, Kris Humphries/PF, Chris Bosh/C, and Andrea Bargnani/PF-C.

When the Raptors’ come to this realization … and implement THIS change … they will effectively address the main on-court problem which has negatively effected their team, thus far, this season.

[NOTE: At this point in their respective careers, and given the strengths and weaknesses of their specific skill sets, i.e. Offensively, Defensively and as Rebounders, Jermaine O'Neal [C-PF], Jason Kapono [SF-OG], and either Roko Ukic [PG] or Will Solomon [PG] SHOULD BE used exclusively as Situational Subs, outside the parameters of the Principal Rotation, with Hassan Adams [SF-OG], Jake Voskuhl [C-PF] and Nathan Jawai [PF-C] excluded altogether].

In contrast to what you might read elsewhere on the net,

e.g. Raptors Rebounding Woes Continue

in the NBA, the inability to REBOUND the basketball on a consistent basis, as a TEAM, is not a “Concentration” issue; nor is it an issue of “failing to get into [opponents'] bodies”.

At this level of competition …

A team’s ability to REBOUND successfully is a “Personnel” issue. Period.

Relative to the position they are playing:

“++” Rebounders are major contributers;
“+” Rebounders are positive contributers;
“0″ Rebounders are neither positive nor negative contributers; and,
“-” Rebounders are negative contributers.

When you look at the Raptors’ roster, this is what you see:

PG /Calderon 0
OG/Kapono -
SF/Moon +
PF/Bosh +
C/O’Neal 0
———————
PG/Ukic 0
OG/Parker 0
SF/Graham +
PF/Humpries +
C/Bargnani -
———————
PG/Solomon 0
OG/Adams 0
PF/Jawai 0
C/Voskuhl -

A good Rebounding team in the NBA needs to have at least three [3] “+” Rebounders on the court at all times.

With their current roster, the Raptors do not fit into this category … plain and simple … because:

1. Specifically, given the “+” Rebounders they DO have on this team, the Raptors are choosing to play the WRONG players in combination with one another, so far this season;

and,

2. In general, there are NOT ENOUGH “+” Rebounders on the Raptors’ roster in the first place.

Until the Raptors fix THIS issue they will not be able to solve their Rebounding problem.

Raptors fans …

So you’re scared and you’re thinking
That maybe we ain’t that young anymore
Show a little faith there’s magic in the night
You ain’t a beauty but hey you’re alright
Oh and that’s alright with me …

Going into tonight’s game, which of these two player rosters would you prefer, if you were a working GM in the NBA?

Oklahoma Thunder Active Roster
No.	Player	Pos	Ht	Wt	DOB	Exp	College
4	Collison, Nick	FC	6-9	255	10/26/80	5	Kansas
35	Durant, Kevin	GF	6-9	215	9/29/88	1	Texas
22	Green, Jeff	F	6-9	235	8/8/86	1	Georgetown
51	Hill, Steven	FC	7-0	245	11/14/85	R	Arkansas
34	Mason, Desmond	GF	6-5	222	10/11/77	8	Oklahoma State
27	Petro, Johan	C	7-0	247	1/27/86	3	None
18	Sene, Mouhamed	C	6-11	230	5/12/86	2	None
7	Smith, Joe	PF	6-10	225	7/26/75	13	Maryland
31	Swift, Robert	C	7-1	270	12/3/85	4	None
25	Watson, Earl	PG	6-1	185	6/12/79	7	UCLA
5	Weaver, Kyle	G	6-6	201	2/18/86	R	Washington State
0	Westbrook, Russell	PG	6-3	190	11/12/88	R	UCLA
3	White, D.J.	PF	6-9	251	8/31/86	R	Indiana
54	Wilcox, Chris	FC	6-10	235	9/3/82	6	Maryland
21	Wilkins, Damien	GF	6-6	225	1/11/80	4	Georgia

  - Player injured

——————————————-

One is $12.7 million over the Salary Cap; the other is $1.1 million under the Cap.

One has an average age of 24.7; the other an average age of 26.6.

One has 2 No. 1 [overall] NBA Draft Picks on it; the other has 1.

Both are led by first-time, interim head coaches.

Objectively speaking, when you’re hard-pressed to distinguish between the authentic talent levels of two teams in the NBA with respective W-L records as far apart as these … i.e. Toronto is 10-15, .400; Oklahoma is 2-24, .077 … it does not portend well for the squad with the higher win percentage, if it’s also playing away from home.

As the first game in a 6-stop Western road trip, this is now a crucial get for the Raptors. 

* Win tonight … and the up-coming match-ups against the Clippers, Kings and the Warriors will not look nearly so daunting.

* Lose tonight … and the Dinos will be staring straight into the abyss of a calamitous 10-game losing streak:

Sun Dec 14 vs New Orleans/15-7, .682 - LOSS
Mon Dec 15 vs New Jersey/12-12, .500 - LOSS
Wed Dec 17 vs Dallas/14-10, .583 - LOSS
Fr Dec 19 at Oklahoma City/2-24, 0.77 - ?
Sat Dec 20 at San Antonio/15-10, .600 - ? [L]
Mon Dec 22 at LA Clippers/7-18, .280 - ?
Fri Dec 26 at Sacramento/7-19, .269 - ?
Sat Dec 27 at Portland/17-10, .630 - ? [L]
Mon Dec 29 at Golden State/7-19, .269 - ?
Wed Dec 31 vs Denver/17-8, .680 - ? [L]

from which they might not be able recover this season.

On the road, in the NBA, is where a team - especially one that’s struggling - finds out exactly what it’s made of … and, whether it should either:

A. Sit tight, [and] take hold

or

B. Trade in these wings on some wheels.

Key early season games for the Raptors
Key early season games for the Raptors: Part II

Come Jan 01 2009, the Raptors will have their answer.

————–

“The door’s open but the ride it ain’t free.”
- Thunder Road [Bruce Springstein]

Regular readers of this space already know that the Raptors should not have:

* Traded Rasho Nesterovic [PF/C], TJ Ford [PG], Maceo Baston [PF] and the 2008 No. 17 [overall] Draft Pick to the Pacers in exchange for Jermaine O’Neal [PF/C] and the 2008 No. 41 [overall] Draft Pick;

* Bought out the contract of Jorge Garbajosa [PF/SF/C];

* Failed to re-sign Carlos Delfino [SF/OG/PG];

* Signed Roko Ukic, as their back-up PG;

* Signed Will Solomon, as their insurance 3rd-string PG; and,

* Signed Hassan Adams, as their reserve Wing Player;

as it put their team in a highly vulnerable situation for this season, whereby, they:

* Are Over the Salary Cap;

* Are only $1,100 below the Luxury Tax Threshold; and,

* Only have a 13-man roster, in a league with a 15-player limit.

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What even these regular readers might not realize, however, is THIS CORNER’S:

* Antipathy towards the countless Woulda, Shoulda,  Coulda’s that are articulated by others, for the most, in hindsight only, after-the-fact;

* Focus on:

• Learning … from What’s Happened Before;
• Awareness & Appreciation for the Here & Now; and,
• Providing a Legitimate Prescription for Future Success, Short and Long Term.

In this regard, here is some of what’s appeared in this space, about the Raptors’ situation, this season, once their present roster was finalized this summer, given the strengths and weaknesses of the 13 players on their team.

* Raptors’ line-up … tough enough [or not] [Sep 08]
* Toronto Raptors’ Best 5-Man Unit [Sep 11]
* First good news out of Raptors’ camp [Oct 01]
* Second good news out of Raptors’ camp [Oct 02]

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Now …

* After losing to the Lakers, in Los Angeles
* Getting embarassed by the Nuggets, in Denver
* Firing their head coach, Sam Mitchell
* Losing miserably to the Jazz, in Utah
* Getting nipped at the wire by the Blazers, at home, and
* Getting hammered by the Cavaliers, in Cleveland

Here’s what the Raptors’ rotation was last night:

Which, in turn, reveals the following things:

1. Calderon, Kapono & Moon … can, ideed, be a Solid Threesome for this team, with JC as the Facilitator, JK as the Designated Shooter & JM as the Designated Defender/Rebounder.

2. Calderon, Moon & Graham … can, indeed, be a solid Closing Group that makes the Raptors into a ”bigger” Rebounding and Defensive team, especially, in combination with O’Neal/Bargnani [at #4/PF] and Bosh [at #5/C].

3. When the Raptors do NOT make the mistake of playing Anthony Parker + Jason Kapono together with Jose Calderon … and, especially, in conjunction with Andrea Bargani … then, they can, indeed, be an effective team, in terms of Rebounding, Team Defense & Shared Team Offense.

4. When the Raptors do NOT use Bargnani at the #3/SF position … or, at least, use him there as little as possible … then, they can, indeed, be something other than an atrocious defensive team, especially in transition.

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Once Kris Humphries and Anthony Parker return to good health, if the Raptors use them in the proper way …

i.e. with Parker as their back-up #1-2/PG-OG and Humphries as their Starting #4/PF …

within the parameters of what’s written here … re: #1, #2, #3 and #4, above, and the suggested rotations … there is every reason to believe that this team should be able to qualify for the Eastern Conference Playoffs this season.

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The answer to the riddle is always to be found in the original source material.