khandor’s sports blog

What is really at stake in tonight’s Raptors vs Wizards match-up?

This is what the current standings look like in the NBA.

12. Toronto Raptors, 7-16, .304
13. Washington Wizards, 4-18, .182

Given that these 2 teams have already played each other one time this season:

Game 1, Tue Jan 10, in Washington, [Toronto, L]

and that they will be playing 2 more times after this evening:

Game 2, Fri Feb 03, in Toronto
Game 3, Mon Feb 06, in Washington
Game 4, Sun Apr 01, in Toronto

… there is actually more than a good chance that the loser of tonight’s game will eventually finish this season as one of the 5 worst teams in the league and, therefore, secure a relatively high selection in the 2012 NBA Draft Lottery.

To wit …

If you happen to be a die-hard Raptors fan who:

i. Is happy that Toronto had the good fortune to acquire Jonas Valanciunas [C] with the No. 5 [overall] Selection in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery;

and,

ii. Actually wants to see your favourite team be able to eventually develop into a legitimate contender to win a League Championship, sometime in the not-too-distant future;

then, you best be cheering hard this evening for a victory … by the visiting Wizards … so Toronto actually improves its chances of adding Harrison Barnes [G/F] to its roster next season, as well.

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PS. As difficult as it may seem, sometimes in life it really is most important that one goes “backwards”, temporarily, so that one can eventually go “forwards”, again, in a way which authentically significant.

Ed Davis [PF, 2010 1st Round Draft Pick] is a keeper.

So is Jonas Valanciunas [C, 2011 1st Round Draft Pick].

Every game the Raptors lose this year which looks like either of these two pre-season contests:

Toronto vs Boston, Sun-Dec-18-2011

Toronto at Boston, Wed-Dec-21-2011

brings them closer to obtaining another high Draft Lottery selection next summer:

NBA 2012 Mock Draft

which features the likes of Harrison Barnes and is precisely what Toronto will need to become relevant again in the NBA.

If there is ever going to be a year for this franchise to “tank” successfully this is certainly it.

At the beginning of the season, a No. 10-13 finish was forecast for the Raptors by yours truly. 

Toronto’s next 5 games will all be played away from the Air Canada Centre, where their W-L record, thus far, is 5-27.

If the Raptors should be so unfortunate as to go 0-for-5 through this upcoming west coast road trip, then, the chances will be quite good that they can lock up a “worst 5″ finish in the league standings … and, thereby, earn the right to a relatively high selection in the 2011 Draft Lottery.

At that point, there will be tremendous irony in the fact that this team will have gone full circle, under the direction of Bryan Colangelo [i.e. Raptors' President/GM], over the course of the last 5 seasons.

2003-2004, 33-49, C-Bosh [i.e. No. 4 Draft Pick] added
2004-2005, 33-49, R-Araujo [i.e. No. 8 Draft Pick] added
—————————————————————————————–
START OF THE BRYAN COLANGELO ERA
2nd Half, 2005-2006, 27-55, J-Calderon [i.e. UFA] added
Yr-1, 2006-2007, 47-35, A-Bargnani [i.e. No. 1 Draft Pick] added
Yr-2, 2007-2008, 41-41
Yr-3, 2008-2009, 33-49
Yr-4, 2009-2010, 40-42, D-DeRozan [i.e. No. 9 Draft Pick] added
Yr-5, 2010-2011, 25-57, E-Davis [i.e. No. 13 Draft Pick] added
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Yr-6, 2011-2012, ?-?, H-Barnes [e.g. No. 5 Draft Pick?] added?

Whoever the Raptors select in the 1st Round of the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery will most likely play a fundamental role in the development of their franchise for the next decade, either, positively or negatively.

This is what the entire 2010-2011 season should have been about … in the wake of Chris Bosh’s departure last summer … if the Raptors really do want to be able to compete for the NBA championship in the not-too-distant future.

Last night’s 9th consecutive loss for the Raptors means that Toronto has now plummeted to the 4th worst W-L record in the NBA:

30 Cleveland Cavaliers, 8-37/.178
29 Minnesota Timberwolves, 10-35/.222
28 Sacramento Kings, 10-33/.233 
27 Toronto Raptors, 13-33/.283
26 Washington Wizards, 13-31/.295

and, once again, has a legitimate chance to secure a Top 3 Selection in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery.

If the Raptors management group actually has the necessary level of Basketball Acumen to take full advantage of the team’s recent spate of injuries there is no legitimate reason Toronto cannot make a gradual rise in the standings over the course of the next few seasons and become firmly entrenched in the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference.

FRANCHISE STRENGTHS

1. Top 3 Selection in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery [?]
2. No. 1 Selection in the 2006 NBA Draft Lottery, i.e. Andrea Bargnani, C
3. No. 9 Selection in the 2009 NBA Draft Lottery, i.e. DeMar DeRozan, OG
4. No. 13 Selection in the 2010 NBA Draft Lottery, i.e. Ed Davis, PF
5. $10.8 M Traded Player Exception [TPE], obtained in exchange for Chris Bosh
6. Expiring contract of Reggie Evans [$5.1 M]
7. Expiring contract of Leandro Barbosa [$7.1 M]
8. Starting calibre PG, i.e. Jose Calderon [$9.0 M, plus 2 more years]
9. Rotation calibre PF, i.e. Amir Johnson [$5.0 M, plus 4 more years]
10. Rotation calibre SF, i.e. Linas Kleiza [$5.0 M, plus 2 more years]
11. Rotation calibre PG/OG, i.e. Jerryd Bayless [$2.3 M, plus 1 more year]  
12. Salary Cap space … if the team chooses not to re-sign Sonny Weems [$0.9 M, 1 yr], Joey Dorsey [$0.9 M, 1 yr], Alexis Ajinca [$1.5 M, 1 yr] and Julian Wright [$2.9 M, 1 yr] after this season
13. World-class city with the 3rd largest market in North America
14. 10th most valuable franchise in the NBA
15. Rabid, loyal fan base

FRANCHISE WEAKNESSES

1. The absence of a deep pocketed ownership group that SHOULD BE prepared to EXCEED the Salary Cap and the Luxury Tax Threshold on an ANNUAL BASIS.

2. The absence of a highly respected General Manager with first-hand experience in the construction/operation of a championship-winning organization.

3. The absence of a highly respected Head Coach with first-hand experience in the construction/operation of a championship-winning organization.

4. An organizational culture which has failed to prioritize the winning of the League Championship as The Standard for Team Success.

5. An organizational culture which has failed to prioritize Team Defense, Team Rebounding and Team Offense as the THREE MAIN COMPONENTS required for Team Success.

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The fact is …

In the 16 year history of the Raptors franchise, there have already been 3 prior occasions when the team was well-positioned to begin a gradual climb towards the top of the Eastern Conference:

First, when Toronto used the No. 4 Selection in the 1998 NBA Draft to pick Antawn Jamison/PF and then immediately traded him to obtain Vince Carter/SF-OG [No. 5 Selection, Golden State Warriors];

1998-1999, 23 wins
1999-2000, 45 wins [up ... but, failed to retain the services of Tracy McGrady]
2000-2001, 47 wins [up]
2001-2002, 42 wins [down]
2002-2003, 24 wins [down]

Second, when Toronto used the No. 4 Selection in the 2003 NBA Draft to pick Chris Bosh/C-PF;

2003-2004, 33 wins [up]
2004-2005, 33 wins [same ... but, traded Vince Carter]
2005-2006, 27 wins [down]

Third, when Toronto used the No. 1 Selection in the 2006 NBA Draft to pick Andrea Bargnani/C;

2006-2007, 47 wins [up]
2007-2008, 41 wins [down]
2008-2009, 33 wins [down]
2009-2010, 40 wins [up ... but, failed to retain the services of Chris Bosh]
2010-2011, 13 wins so far [down?]

and, in each instance, the opportunity has been wasted by the relatively poor work of their:

i. Ownership Group, whose chief responsibility is to hire the right GM and then stay out of his way; 

ii. General Manager[s], whose chief responsibilities are to: A. Hire the right Head Coach & Staff, and B. Obtain the right mix of players, and then stay out of their way; 

iii. Head Coach[es] and staff[s], whose chief responsibilities are to: A. Fully develop the players on their roster into a highly effective and cohesive group, and B. Win as many games and playoff series as possible, on an annual basis;

with the prime directive being, “The Winning of the League Championship.”  

Hopefully, this time around …

Kyrie Irving/PG, Duke University
Harrison Barnes/SF, University of North Carolina
Jan Veseley/SF, Partizan-Belgrade

the Raptors’ management group doesn’t screw it up, again.   

Mike D is a regular comment contributor to this blog.

So, too, is Tinman.

This is some of what each of them had to say on Friday - i.e. in one case, with tongue firmly planted in cheek; in the other case, being totally serious - concerning the ”new” edition of the Raptors:

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Toronto Raptors, Game 19

“Is it not slightly unbelievable that the Raptors are now in sole possession of the 8th seed – sporting a better record than they did last year at this point in the season? Does this say more about the Raptors or the state of the NBA in general?

I think I’m going to start polishing my resume. If this is where the bar is set in the Eastern Conference, I may have a shot at some GM openings come offseason.”
- Mike D

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As expected, Raptors show improved play after making recent changes

“As you have criticized BC in the past for his fumbles, surely you have to applaud the direction he has taken this team, seemingly out of nowhere. Where did all this talent come from? And all seem to be progressing. Don’t we have a trade exemption? Peja’s worth something, right? As much as I love Reggie, I’d flip him for a draft pick and then try and pick him up next season. The way the Heat is playing, that draft pick might be low twenties. Where ours is is still up in the air, but I tell you after 18 games we have played about 5 or 6 worse teams than us, and we are improving.”
- Tinman

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which prompted some additional thinking over the weekend about where the Raptors actually are today, in terms of NBA level talent, compared to where they were at the end of last season.

Q1. Are the Raptors a more talented team right now than they were last season? 

A1. Yes, they are … by a slight margin.

However …

Q2. Are the Raptors in a significantly better position today … to eventually move into the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference, in the not-too-distant future … than they were at the end of last season?

A2. No, they are not … when considering:

I. The ’talent level’ of the top players who should be available this summer at the front end of the 2011 NBA Draft, e.g. Harrison Barnes [1 & 2], Kyrie Irving and Jan Vesely [etc.];

and,

II. The ’talent level’ of the top teams in the East, both, this season and looking towards the future:

In general …

Those who think that the ‘talent level’ of the present version of the Raptors is, somehow, comparable to the other top teams in the Eastern Conference, and perhaps capable of surpassing them, one day in the not-too-distant future, without the addition of at least 1 or 2 authentically High End players – and, perhaps, several other very good players, as well - are not making an accurate assessment of how these teams actually compare to Toronto today.

The Raptors are not one of the High End teams in the Eastern Conference.

The Raptors are not one of the Low End teams in the Eastern Conference.

The Raptors … at least, as presently constituted … are one of several Treadmill teams in the Eastern Conference, perpetually stuck in the middle and going nowhere fast.

Put aside for the moment whether or not the Raptors should actually be trying to win as many games as possible this season, given the unique opportunity they have to obtain one of the Top 3 Selections in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery … which, this specific year, will likely bring with it the chance to add a franchise-changing player like Harrison Barnes, or Kyrie Irving, or Jan Vesely, etc.

Instead, consider what the Raptors’ ”regular rotation” SHOULD BE right now, if the primary goal of the franchise is to win as many games as possible this season, in an effort to qualify for the playoffs for the first time in the last 3 years.

The team’s current roster includes 14 players:

POINT GUARD

#1. Jose Calderon

COMBO GUARD

#2. Jerryd Bayless and #3. Leandro Barbosa

OFF GUARDS

#4. Sonny Weems, and #5. DeMar DeRozan

SMALL FORWARDS

#6. Linas Kleiza, #7. Peja Stojakovic [injured], and #8. Julian Wright

POWER FORWARDS

#9. Reggie Evans [injured], #10. Amir Johnson, #11. Ed Davis [debut - TBD, after pre-season knee surgery], and #12. Joey Dorsey

CENTER

#13. Andrea Bargnani, and #14. Solomon Alabi 

A comparison between: [i] The Raptors Rotation vs Atlanta, and [ii] What the Raptors Rotation SHOULD BE vs Future Opponents would look like this:

Until Stojakovic and Evans are eventually able to return to the line-up, the Raptors would actually give themselves the best chance of winning games by taking advantage of:

- DeRozan’s size and athleticism at the OG position [relative to Weems] 

- Wright’s size and athleticism at the SF position [relative to DeRozan]

- Johnson’s increased agility and scoring ability at the PF position [relative to Dorsey]

- Barbosa’s speed in transition and his overall experience at the Back-up PG position [relative to Bayless]

- Weems’ size and athleticism at the Back-up OG position [relative to Barbosa]

- Davis’ size and athleticism at the Back-up PF position [relative to Kleiza]

- Bayless’ ability to score the ball at the Back-up OG/PG position [relative to Wright]

- Dorsey’s size and athleticism at the Back-up PF/C position [relative to an open roster spot]

and, in the process, diminishing the negative effects of the skill deficiencies of Andrea Bargnani [C] – who is now their best scorer – by focusing on their combined ability to Defend and Rebound at the other positions in a superior way to what they were ever able to do with Jarrett Jack [PG], Marcus Banks [PG] and David Andersen [C] on their roster. 

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PS. Since the belief of this corner is that it’s best for the Raptors to actually lose as many games as possible this season … in order to obtain the highest draft pick possible, this specific year … hopefully Jay Triano & Co. are never able to figure out for themselves the benefits of using a regular rotation like what’s been recommended here.

In Friday’s loss at Boston, the Raptors lost the services of Reggie Evans [PF] … their best rebounder, by far … for an extended period of time.

Then, in yesterday’s loss vs Atlanta, Peja Stojakovic – recently acquired via trade – was also sidelined with “soreness in his knee”, and unable to play.

Together with the fact that 1st-year players Ed Davis [PF] and Soloman Alabi [C] played their 2nd games with the Erie Bayhawks [i.e. the Raptors' D-League affiliate] yesterday, this meant Toronto took the floor against the Hawks with only 10 players in uniform.

Given the players on the Raptors’ roster right now:

the eventual outcome against Atlanta should not have come as a surprise at all.

At this specific juncture of the season, and with the following slate of games on the immediate horizon:

Of far greater significance, perhaps, is the opportunity which is now presented to the Raptors … i.e. to benefit long term from this most “unfortunate” turn of events.

By resisting the urge to:

1. Make a subsequent roster move to replace Reggie Evans’ rebounding;

2. Use the remainder of their TPE [obtained from Miami in the Chris Bosh trade];

3. Fire their head coach, Jay Triano, as a scapegoat for this season’s poor W-L record;

4. Make a push for the No. 8 playoff seed in the Eastern Conference this year;

what the Raptors’ basketball brain-trust should do, instead, is simply:

i. Sit back and swallow the bitter pill which goes with having one of the weakest rosters in the entire NBA;

ii. Use Alabi and Davis as strictly part-time players in their regular rotation for the rest of the season [or, in Davis' case, sit him out for the whole year to fully recover from his torn meniscus injury, suffered in the pre-season];

and,

iii. Lose as many games, as possible, for the rest of this season, in an effort to secure the future rights to a Top 3 Selection in the 2011 NBA Draft;

By following this recipe, what the Raptors could well succeed in doing … if they play their cards properly! … is setting themselves up for an extended run in the upper portion of the Eastern Conference during the latter half of the next decade [i.e. 2015-2020] with a Core Group of Players that should/could look something like this:

[Temporary] Starting PG – Jose Calderon [who will eventually become the back-up]
Starting OG – DeMar DeRozan
Starting SF – Harrison Barnes [or, Jan Vesely]
Starting PF – Ed Davis
Starting C – Andrea Bargnani [or, the asset acquired in a future trade involving him]

Back-up PG – Jerryd Bayless [or, Kyrie Irving]
Back-up OG – Sonny Weems
Back-up SF – Linas Kleiza, or Julian Wright
Back-up PF – Amir Johnson
Back-up C – Solomon Alabi

Head Coach – TBD

in addition to the other assets that can also be obtained from the future acquisitions involving [i] the rest of the TPE, [ii] Reggie Evans, [iii] Leandro Barbosa and [iv] Peja Stojakovic.

As the great Branch Rickey first said, a good many years ago:

“Luck [properly understood] is [most definitely] the residue of design.” 

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PS. OTOH … if your pro team sports organization is geared strictly towards the making of an annual ”bottom line” profit, in a safe and secure way, then, it really does not matter one iota just how many times you choose to look an actual gift horse in the mouth and, in the process, allow opportunity after opportunity … for greatness … to slip through your proverbial fingers. 

When Toronto’s basketball brain-trust made the decision to complete the two trades which they made this past weekend that obtained the following 2 players:

Jerryd Bayless [PG/OG] and Peja Stojakovic [SF]

in exchange for the following 3 players:

Jarrett Jack [PG/OG], David Andersen [C] and Marcus Banks [PG]

it accomplished several inter-related things:

1. Opened up a roster spot that will probably be used to sign Erick Dampier [C];

2. Solidified Jose Calderon’s role with this year’s squad, as the Starting PG;

3. Opened up increased playing time for the No. 9 [overall] Selection from the 2010 NBA Draft – i.e. Ed Davis [PF-C] - who is due to re-join their active roster shortly after completing his rehabilitation assignment to the D-League;

4. Improved their chances of competing for a lower tier playoff spot in the Eastern Conference [i.e. No. 6, No. 7 and No. 8] this season;

5. Reduced their chances of finishing in the basement of the Eastern Conference this season;

and,

6. Effectively eliminated their opportunity to obtain Harrison Barnes [G/F, 6-8, 210], as a franchise-changing player who will be available this summer … as a likely Top 3 Selection in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery.

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This is what the NBA Standings look like today, in the aftermath of yesterday’s thrilling victory by the Raptors [5-9/.357, T-12th] over the visiting Celtics [9-4/.692, 2nd];

and, this – i.e. please click on the link - is a comparative evaluation of the rosters for the different teams in the East that should now be able to effectively compete for the last 3 playoff spots this year, as the regular season continues to unfold.

Where the Raptors once had a legitimate chance to obtain a dominant player in next summer’s NBA Draft Lottery, today, this is no longer the case.

Unfortunately …

Personnel moves like these are yet more instances of this franchise opting for a “short term” boost in on-court performance with increased financial flexibility, rather than following a detailed, costly and highly integrated “long term” plan which is designed to gradually improve the organization over a period of years, while also increasing their opportunity to achieve major success, as one of the authentic dominant teams in the NBA.

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Update:

Please see this specific blog entry - from Tuesday, November 24, 2010 - for a more expansive version of why these two trades from this past weekend have improved the NBA talent level on the Raptors’ current – and future – roster this season. 

When assessing accurately how a NBA team is playing, relative to its competition, it can be a valuable exercise to divide the 82-game regular season schedule into eight [8] almost equal parts, which look like this:

If you do this, from a Raptors’ perspective, what you will find is that this week marks the beginning of Phase 2 for Toronto, as the team heads to Washington for tomorrow night’s match-up with the Wizards, and then to Philadelphia - for a back-to-back – to complete their 4-game road trip against opponents in the Eastern Conference.

When all is said and done, at the end of this season, the team’s general fanbase will – in all likelihood – be able to look back on this specific next stretch of 10 games:

as a crucial indicator of:

i. Where the Raptors were positioned, at that specific point in time;

and, more importantly,

ii. Where the Raptors appeared to be heading, looking beyond the current season;

in relation to the other teams in the East, and the quest to acquire Harrison Barnes [i.e. the top franchise-changing player available in the next NBA Draft].

When it comes to actually winning the NBA Championship, sometime in the not-too-distant future, those few franchises which exhibit the best organizational planning are the ones that will maximize their opportunities for success. 

It’s been 5 full days since Ed Davis injured his knee in an off-season pick-up game.

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Top Raptors rookie Ed Davis injures knee in pick-up game

It’s all fun and games until someone hurts a knee.

Raptors rookie forward Ed Davis sustained a “meniscal” injury to his right knee during a pickup game Wednesday night and the treatment options are still being determined. Davis was playing informally in Mississauga on Wednesday — a gathering started by the team’s younger players using social media outlets — when he landed the wrong way after a rebound and hurt himself.

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In today’s fast-paced world it is extremely unlikely that the Raptors’ recent 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 13, overall] has failed to receive a proper diagnosis of his injury, by this point. Yet, there has been no official announcement from the team explaining the full extent of the damage … which is indeed a strange development.

[NOTE: In all likelihood, the behind-the-scenes discussions which are taking place right now concern two viable options: A. Surgery, and a prolonged recovery process, sometimes up to 4 months; or, B. Playing through the current level of pain and discomfort, then, opting for surgery next summer.]

If it’s eventually determined that Davis will need to undergo a surgical procedure immediately, to repair his torn meniscus, you can count on him missing the Raptors’ training camp and, perhaps, even a good part of the upcoming season.

Definitely not an auspicious beginning for the young man hoped by Raptors fans everywhere to eventually be able to replace the team’s former all-star PF, Chris Bosh.

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PS. While no one likes to see anyone sustain an injury of any sort, in the grand scheme of things this season for the Raptors, the possibility of having to play a substantial portion of the schedule this season without Ed Davis in the line-up at all would also increase the team’s chances of [1] eventually re-signing GM/Bryan Colangelo to a contract extention … without incurring public wrath … and [2] landing a high 1st Round Draft Pick next summer, e.g. Harrison Barnes.  Talk about the perfect storm, from the perspective of MLSE.