khandor’s sports blog

According to Kevin Arnovitz and David Thorpe, Tim Duncan’s inability to defend the Phoenix Suns’ “1-5 Pick and Roll/Pop” series the same way he used to … when he was both younger and healthier … is a major source of the difficulty San Antonio is having in the early stages of San Antonio’s 2nd Round series in the Western Conference Playoffs.

Tim Duncan’s Decaying Pick-and-Roll Defense

Hmmm …

Is this actually the case, however?

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Q1. What is causing San Antonio the most difficulty, thus far, in their series with Phoenix?

A2. If you take a closer look at the following factual information …

Game 1 - Box Score, GameFlow

Game 2 - Box Score, Game Flow

What you should be able to see is that:

1. In Game 1

Antonio McDyess [-8] played 18:57 … and got 0:00 in the 4th quarter.
Matt Bonner [-7] played 13:28 … and got 0:00 in the 4th quarter.
Tim Duncan [-6] played 37:10 … and got 8:37 in the 4th quarter.

2. In Game 2

Antonio McDyess [+1] played 21:52 … and got 7.5 s in the 4th quarter.
Matt Bonner [0] played 15:00 … and got 44.7 s in the 4th quarter.
Tim Duncan [-6] played 39:20 … and got 9:31 in the 4th quarter.

3. In Game 1 …

With Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess on the floor together the Spurs played relatively even [i.e. -2] with the Suns.

With Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker on the floor together the Spurs were significantly better [i.e. +12] than the Suns.

4. In Game 2 …

With Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess on the floor together the Spurs played relatively even [i.e. +1] with the Suns.

With Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker on the floor together the Spurs were, again, slightly better [i.e. +3] than the Suns.

5. The major problem San Antonio is having in this series, so far, is NOT rooted in Tim Duncan’s less-than Herculian defense vs the Suns’ “1-5 Pick and Roll/Pop” series but, instead, in Gregg Popovich’s pig-headed INSISTANCE on:

A. ”Going small,” in the 4th quarter …

rather than using a conventional “2 Bigs + 3 Littles” alignment:

Option 1
Duncan and McDyess, or Duncan and Bonner, or Duncan and Mahinmi

Option 2
Blair and McDyess, or Blair and Bonner, or Blair and Mahinmi

Option 3
Duncan and Blair

Option 4
Blair and Mahinmi

… no matter what type of line-up Phoenix decides to employ;

and,

B. Using the Spurs 5 best players …

i.e. Parker + Ginobili + Jefferson + McDyess + Duncan

together, as a unit, for as little as 8:23 and 10:12, respectively, in Game 1 and 2.

While this corner has a tremendous degree of R.E.S.P.E.C.T. for Gregg Popovich … as one of the very best NBA coaches over the last 30+ years … the simple fact is that whenever he becomes stubborn in the Playoffs, and insists on going with a “small” line-up for large stretches of individual games, despite the presence of other legitimate [i.e. equal or superior] alternatives - where the specific match-ups would NOT be in his opponent’s favour by such a wide margin - the Spurs become little more than “just another average team” and are regularly eliminated from post-season competition much sooner than they need to be.

For the Spurs’ sake, let’s hope that Coach Pop checks his ego at the door for tonight’s game 3, takes a closer look at the specific individual match-ups on the floor, and decides to use a different approach than what he’s used to this point in this series … which has put Antonio McDyess’s rear end on the bench for the 4th quarters of Game 1 and 2.

If he does … then, you should expect San Antonio to triumph this evening.

If he does not, however … then, you should expect to see the Phoenix Suns playing in the Western Conference Finals.

3 weeks ago …

You were told in this space that the proper way for the Los Angeles Lakers to solve their problems this season would be to use Kobe Bean Bryant in a specific role:

Solving the Lakers’ problems with the Spurs, Apr 6 2010

Last week …

You were told in this space that the outcome of a playoff series can sometimes be determined by the ability of a team to make the correct game-to-game … and, THEN, in-game … adjustments, based on what its opponent’s specific strengths and weaknesses are and the best possible use of its own personnel:

Making the correct game-to-game adjustments can be THE difference between Winning and Losing in the Playoffs, Apr 23 2010

So much of what can be found on-line today concerning supposedly sound “basketball analysis” is little more than gobbledygook put forth by statistical gurus without a proper understanding of, 

“How the NBA game actually works.”

===================================

Oklahoma City Thunder 87
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 111
Complete Series Info

===================================

The fact is …

1. Sample sizes are rendered virtually meaningless;

2. League-wide averages are rendered virtually meaningless; and,

3. Creating and minimizing individual mis-matches against the best teams in the league - and a particular opponent of high calibre - are absolutely crucial;

 … when it comes to determining accurately which teams, coaches and, therefore, players will advance in the playoffs, or not.

====================================

During the pre-season …

You were told in this space that the 2009-2010 NBA championship would, in all likelihood, be won by 1 of the following 5 teams:

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando Magic
Cleveland Cavaliers
Boston Celtics [i.e. depending upon the recovery of Kevin Garnett from injury]

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Los Angeles Lakers
San Antonio Spurs

Nothing which has happened since that time has fundamentally changed that perception. 

Right now …

The 4 best teams in the Eastern Conference are the Cleveland Cavaliers [4-1], Orlando Magic [4-0], Boston Celtics [4-1] and Atlanta Hawks [2-2].

The 4 best teams in the Western Conference are the Los Angeles Lakers [3-2], San Antonio Spurs [3-2], Utah Jazz [3-1] and Phoenix Suns [3-2].

===================================

Barring any further major injuries …

This year’s NBA champions will, in all likelihood, be 1 of the following 3 teams:

Los Angeles Lakers, Phil Jackson [and Mitch Kupchak and Dr. Jerry Buss]
Orlando Magic, Stan Van Gundy [and Otis Smith and Richard DeVos]
San Antonio Spurs, Gregg Popovich [and RC Buford and Peter Holt]

… none of which happens to be the Cleveland Cavaliers with Mike Brown [and Danny Ferry and Daniel Gilbert].

Basketball is the ultimate TEAM Sport … with each player on the court having to be able to function adequately on Offense, on Defense, and in terms of Rebounding, in conjunction with the sound strategic and tactical decision-making skills of an elite level head coach, general manager and owner.

Those who think that basketball can be properly understood by examining the statistical norms, averages, outliers, etc., associated with representative “sample sizes”, “numerical formulas”, and all manner of “efficiency ratings,” are simply wasting their [and your] time.

Basketball is a game of:

I. Acumen;

and,

II. Inches;

… the most important of which are the “approximately 6″ located between the ears of a team’s owner, general manager, head coach and 8-9 regular rotation players.

Related:

Kobe Bryant, Closer to the ground

Every Move Must Have A Purpose

… ksb listens.

Although you might think you already know exactly who this man is …

after the first 13 years of his Hall-Of-Fame career which includes the following ridiculously long list of accomplishments:

Tim Duncan’s NBA.com Bio

Trust that … according to his side-kick, Mr. Ginobili … you may not.

Yes, Gregg Popovich has long been known to refer to him simply as “Timmy.”

And, yes, several years ago, Shaquille O’Neal teasingly christened him ”The Big Fundamental.”

But … from this point forward … he will now be known to yours truly as,

“THE BIG WARRANTY,”

which is the apt nickname that was bestowed on him this evening, in an in-game interview segment given by Charles Barkley’s favourite Argentinian … just before his nasal bone was unceremoniously displaced by making inadvertent contact with Dirk Nowitzki’s left elbow.

Said Manu, at the time, about his legendary teammate, the Spurs’ #21,

“He’s just always there … like a big insurance policy.”

Nothing more, and nothing less, than that.

———-

PS. The time is now 11:51 PM, and you can bet your bottom dollar that Manu’s nose was actually broken on that play, early in the 3rd quarter … and, yet, after stopping the profuse bleeding and getting patched up in the Spurs’ locker-room, by their trainer, he’s now continued to play in this game - driving to basket, fearlessly, rebounding, and defending. That … dear friends … is precisely “How a warrior - and a 3-time NBA Champion - conducts himself, in the heat of battle.” What a fantastic Game 3 this is!

[courtesy of TrueHoop]

Kevin Arnovitz breaks down the fourth quarter meltdown

———-

[courtesy of ksb]

The best team in the NBA today …

If Phil Jackson eventually realizes that what he NEEDS to do with this version of the Los Angeles Lakers is:

1. Use Kobe Bryant as his main PG [especially vs Manu Ginobili];

AND

2. Employ a Starting Unit of:

AND

3. Employ a 2nd Unit that includes Key Subs:

AND

4. Employ a set of Reserves that includes:

THEN

his team will have little difficulty beating the Spurs in the Western Conference playoffs and repeating as NBA Champions.

If, however, Phil Jackson doesn’t realize this … and, instead, continues to think that:

1. Derek Fisher is somehow capable of providing adequate defense and rebounding at the PG position [when he clearly is not];

AND

2. Ron Artest is somehow capable of:

i. Knocking down open 3PT shots;
ii. Filling the wings and finishing at the rim in offensive transition;
iii. Generating key offensive rebounds through quickness at the SF position; and,
iv. Hustling for loose balls, creating steals and generating deflections;

… like Trevor Ariza/SF did last season, in an unassuming manner [when he clearly is not];

THEN

his team will remain vulnerable to a 1st, or 2nd, or 3rd, Round upset in the Western Conference playoffs, regardless who their opponent might be.

==========

re: San Antonio’s improved performance

Since Feb 28, the Spurs are 15-5.

When San Antonio demonstrates that it is capable of going to:

A. Cleveland and losing to the Cavs, by only 2 points;
B. Miami and cruising past the Heat; and,
C. Boston and hammering the Celtics, in the 2nd half; and,
D. Los Angeles and hammering the Lakers, in the 4th quarter;

late in the season, without Tony Parker/PG in the line-up, by:

A. Shifting Manu Ginobili to the Back-up PG position, in arrears of George Hill;

B. Increasing the overall workload of Antonio McDyess/PF;

C; Using Matt Bonner and DeJuan Blair more, as the PF-C combination with the 2nd Unit;

D. Using Ian Mahinmi/C, as the 5th Big off the bench, to rest Tim Duncan;

E. Using Richard Jefferson/SF and Manu Ginobili/OG-PG together, as opposed to splitting them between the 1st and 2nd Units;

F. Using Keith Bogans/OG-SF, as the primary Back-up at both of the wing positions;

G. Using Roger Mason/OG-PG, as the 5th Guard off the bench, in emergency situations only; 

H. Using a 1st Unit which consists of:

George Hill, PG [6-2, 180]
Manu Ginobili, OG [6-6, 205]
Richard Jefferson, SF [6-7, 225]
Antonio McDyess, PF [6-9, 245]
Tim Duncan, C [6-11, 260]

then other NBA observers best start paying closer attention to the small details [i.e. micro analysis] involved with what Gregg Popovich [i.e. an elite level NBA head coach] is now doing, in an effort to create better individual mismatch opportunities for his best players [i.e. Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan] … Offensively, Defensively and in terms of Rebounding … and their supporting cast. 

The best two teams in the Western Conference right now are the Lakers and the Spurs …

Legitimate Contenders in the NBA, as of April 5

and it would be a real shame to see them matched-up againgst one another in the 1st Round of the playoffs.

Despite what you may have been told to believe by certain segments of the on-line hoops community …

Not all coaches are, in fact, created equal, and some really do make a tangible difference to the quality of performance they elicit from the individual players on their team, on a game-to-game basis and over the course of a season and/or a career.

When it comes to working successfully with the very best of the best … men like Red Auerbach, Phil Jackson, Pat Riley, Bill Sharman, Red Holtzman, Dr. Jack Ramsay, Chuck Daly, Larry Brown and Gregg Popovich have set the standard:

#1. By the way in which they communicate their priorities to their players each and every time they speak … 

———————————————

Spurs fizzle late against Blazers

“That’s what this journey is about,” Popovich said before tipoff Thursday. “It’s an exercise in commitment to each other, and having the character to continue to believe, and not try and moan and blame, but to try and be the best group you can be, no matter what.”

———————————————

and,

#2. By the exacting quality of their personal handywork, in the areas of the game over which they have complete control, for example:

———————————————

Crunch-time X’s and O’s by a master

What does the ideal crunch time play look like?

The play that got the Spurs’ preferred shooter (Manu Ginobili) the best possible shot for his team (a wide-open 3 from the corner, where 3s are shorter distance and easier) in the highlights above is about as pretty as crunch time execution gets.

———————————————

Fans of the NBA game should learn to appreciate each one of them for what they truly are … i.e. a very special type of human being that does not come along every day.

Related:

Teachable Moments, NBA Style

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 7– @ San Antonio [Mon Nov 09]

The end of the first road trip won’t come soon enough for Toronto. Although there are likely going to be cross-match opportunities for the Raptors to exploit Bargnani’s perimeter skills vs The Big Fundamental this should be more than cancelled out on the other end of the floor when either TD or The Dyessman will get an opportunity to ply his trade vs Il Mago. Tony Parker, based on his combination of quickness and size, is one of only a handful of starting PG’s in the league [e.g. CP3 and Devin Harris] that present a truly difficult match-up situation for Jose Calderon. In general, the Spurs have too many weapons for the Raptors to contend with successfully. This is a very solid San Antonio team … with a slew of solid back-ups on their 15-man roster … that will be a legitimate threat to reach the WC Finals again this season. A major challenge for Jay Triano & Co., on the other hand, will involve how to avoid pointing an accusing finger towards their star player, Chris Bosh [in a contract year], while getting off to a slow start.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 2-5

Bowen retires after 12 seasons
Bowen was not the most obvious starter for a championship team early in his career. Drafted by Miami from Cal State Fullerton, he spent several seasons bouncing between clubs and earning little playing time.

But after his 2001 arrival in San Antonio, he found his place, eventually earning defensive player accolades and a regular starting job.

He said he hopes that will be his legacy.

“It’s not how you start but how you finish,” Bowen said. “I hope my legacy would be as someone that never was satisfied with just being where they were.”

———————————————

The entire “Bruce Bowen Story” is legendary, inspirational stuff.

A hollywood producer should make a major motion picture about the life and times of Bruce “Karate Kid” Bowen.

re: why he’s quitting now

Once a player like BB has in fact scratched and clawed his way to the top of the mountain, it’s an exceptionally difficult thing to do, to go somewhere else … where the people don’t know what you know about what it takes to climb THAT mountain.

Heart-felt kudos to Bruce Bowen!

You made all your dreams come true.

Just a few, in this world, earn the right to say THAT.

Please, see Peter Holt.

Please, see the San Antonio Spurs.

Please, see the Spurs’ 4 World Championship Larry O’Brien Trophies.

Now …

Please, read about THE WAY a Winner Thinks When The Going Gets Tough.

When Spurs majority owner Peter Holt walked into the room for the NBA Board of Governors meeting here earlier this week, he was greeted with a cacophony of catcalls and good-natured ribbing.

His fellow owners couldn’t believe the supposedly thrifty Holt had signed off on one of the most expensive offseason makeovers in recent Spurs memory.

“They all think I’m cheap as hell,” Holt said.

Not anymore. In the span of less than a month, Holt and his ownership group have done some serious damage to their miserly reputation.

In the eye of an uncertain economy that prompted many NBA teams to put a lock on their wallets this offseason, the Spurs went barreling past the luxury tax threshold to acquire Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess.

The Spurs already are about $8 million over the dollar-for-dollar tax line, with still more roster pieces to add. The final tariff bill is likely to breach $10 million, on top of a payroll pushing $80 million.

In his first interview since the offseason began, Holt this week explained the reasoning behind the Spurs’ out-of-character summertime spending spree. In Vegas terms, it was time to go all in.

—————–

Whether or not the San Antonio Spurs actually win the 2009-2010 NBA title really isn’t the point.

What matters most of all is Mr. Holt’s versatility, intelligence, commitment to excellence and … perhaps, No. 1 on the list … actual Level of R.E.S.P.E.CT. for [1] the Spurs loyal fans, [2] RC Buford & Gregg Popovich, [3] Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili & Tony Parker, et al.

As that great, down-home, southern gentleman-philospher, Bum Phillips [Houston Oilers], once said, about the defining characteristic of a fabulous former NFL head coach by the name of Don Shula [Miami Dolphins]:

“He’s so good, he can take his’n and beat yours’n; then take yours’n and beat his’n.”

That, dear friends, right there, is a Prime Example of A Man who actually knows what he’s doing in the Great Arena of Life. 

For Raptors fans who think that the recent 4-team trade was in fact based on the commitment of MLSE to do what’s necessary to win a League Championship, one day in the not-too-distant future:

Colangelo still tinkering with Raptors roster
“You have to find a way to get the right pieces in this year and roll forward and keep below that luxury tax level,” Colangelo said. “It’s going to get tighter and it’s something to contend with.”

———-

you SHOULD seriously re-evaluate that specific line of thinking.

When you hear Bryan Colangelo speak next of DOING WHAT’S NECESSARY TO ACCOMPLISH THAT SPECIFIC GOAL, down-the-road, please feel free to notify yours truly [perhaps, via email] right away!

The Raptors’ GM … and chief representative of MLSE, on the hoops side of the operation … talks, repeatedly, about being “committed to building a winning team” BUT he NEVER EVER takes the NEXT STEP and mentions something about,

“Doing what’s necessary to actually have a legitimate shot at winning the League Championship.”

What’s the reason for this?

Does he actually know what this involves, in today’s NBA, regarding such things as: i. Basketball Philosophy, ii. Coaching Philosophy, iii. Player Personnel, and iv. The Financial Commitment Required [etc.]?

The teams that are “honestly” trying to WIN the Championship in the NBA, these days, know full well that in order to give themselves a “real” chance at accomplishing this goal, they are going to have to accept the fact that they will be paying The Luxury Tax … which is really Nothing More than the “current toll fare” … in return for The Right to be able to drive on that specific Super-Highway.

The highest level of competition possible is where the Big Boyz play and that’s the going freight just to ante into the game.

The San Antonio Spurs … located in a small-to-mid sized market, but with a 1st-class ownership group [expertly led by Peter Holt] and a Top Notch GM/Head Coach tandem  [i.e. RC Buford & Gregg Popovich] … are a prime example of a team that is now fully aware of this and, therefore, chose to act accordingly this off season … i.e. as you can plainly see from their recent decisions to:

* Retain their best 3 players [i.e. Time Duncan, Manu Ginobili & Tony Parker]

* Retain a veteran like Michael Finley

* Select 3 new players in the 2009 NBA Draft [i.e. DeJuan Blair, No. 37, Jack McClinton, No. 51, and Nando De Colo, No. 53] who are ready to compete right away

* Trade for Richard Jefferson [i.e. another high end player], and

* Sign Antonio McDyess [UFA]

While the Toronto Raptors, on the other hand … chose to go a different route, replete with a Magician’s Wand & Cloak, a rabbit, a head stand, a glass of bottled water, a still dry shirt - with an exceedingly high collar - and an accompanying 3-piece band of partners in crime.

There are just a few teams in this League that are legitimately trying to WIN It All [i.e. Category One] …

then, there’s Everybody Else [i.e. who can be further sub-divided into two additional specific Categories: Two. Those trying to field a highly "competitive" team, in the process of turning a profit, annually; and, Three. Those simply trying to survive in hopes of maybe turning a profit].

DO NOT MAKE THE MISTAKE OF THINKING THAT WHAT THE RAPTORS DID WITH THEIR PARTICIPATION IN THIS 4-TEAM TRADE WAS DESIGNED TO SHIFT THEM FROM CATEGORY TWO INTO CATEGORY ONE.

It was not; not by a long shot.

————-

Related:

Which franchise made out best from the 4-team trade?

Prior to last night’s proceedings, these 15 individuals were identified by this corner as players who could have given the Toronto Raptors what they need, at this moment in time, heading towards a long term future [A] with or [B] without Chris Bosh:

Perception vs Reality - Who SHOULD Raptors Draft?

Al-Farouq Aminu [6-9, 215, SF/PF, Wake Forest, now unavailable]
Tyreke Evans [6-6, 219, PG/OG, Memphis]
DeMar DeRozan [6-7, 220, OG/SF, USC]
Earl Clark [6-10, 226, PF, Louisville]
Derrick Brown [6-8, 225, SF, Xavier]
Terrence Williams [6-6, 213, OG, Louisville]
Wayne Ellington [6-5, 202, OG, UNC]
Danny Green [6-6, 208, OG/SF, UNC]
Sam Young [6-6, 223, SF, Pittsburgh]
Marcus Thorton [6-4, 194, OG, LSU]
Tyler Hansbrough [6-9, 234, PF, UNC]
Taj Gibson [6-10, 214, PF, USC]
Dante Cunningham [6-8, 227, PF/SF, Villanova]
Tyler Smith [6-6, 212, OG, Tennessee, now unavailable]
Nando De Colo [6-5, 190, OG, France]

This is what happened last night with each of those 15 players::

Al-Farouq Aminu. Withdrew from consideration; back to Wake Forest.
Tyler Smith. Withdrew from consideration; back to Tennessee.

Tyreke Evans. SACRAMENTO/No. 4, selected by Geoff Petrie.

DeMar DeRozan. Player the Raptors/No. 9 wanted all along.

Earl Clark. PHOENIX/No. 14, selected by Steve Kerr.
Derrick Brown. CHARLOTTE/No. 40, selected by M-Jordan/L-Brown.
Terrence Williams. NEW JERSEY/No. 11., selected by R-Thorn/K-Vandeweghe.
Wayne Ellington. MINNESOTA/No. 28, selected by David Kahn
Sam Young. MEMPHIS/No. 36, selected by Chris Wallace. 
Danny Green. CLEVELAND/No. 46, selected by Danny Ferry.
Marcus Thorton. MIAMI/No. 43, selected by Pat Riley [traded to New Orleans-Jeff Bower/Byron Scott].
Tyler Hansbrough. INDIANA/No. 13, selected by Larry Bird.
Taj Gibson. CHICAGO/No. 26, selected by J-Paxson/G-Forman.
Dante Cunningham. PORTLAND/No. 33, selected by Kevin Pritchard.
Nando De Colo. SAN ANTONIO/N. 53, selected by RC Buford/G-Popovich.

———-
 
1. Over the next few seasons, it is going to be most interesting to watch the development of these 15 players.

2. The Charlotte Bobcats [37-45] are gradually building a very solid team:

* Adding Gerald Henderson [OG] and Derrick Brown [SF] last night
* Trading for Boris Diaw [PF-SF], Raja Bell [OG], Vladimir Radmanovic [SF-PF] and DeSagana Diop [C} last season
* Drafting DJ Augustin [PG] & Alex Ajinca [C} last year
* Re-signing Gerald Wallace [SF-PF] last year
* Re-signing Emeka Okafor [C-PF] 2 years ago

3. There’s a very good reason the same names keep popping up when the Larry O’Brien Trophy is awarded, in June, to the NBA Champions.

Update:

* Marcus Thorton has subsequently been traded to the New Orleans Hornets in exchange for two future 2nd Round Draft Picks [i.e. 2010 & 2012].