khandor’s sports blog

Rubio’s fourth quarter poise gets noticed

On the merits of the T-Wolves’ increased use of the Pick-and-Roll:

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After Monday’s morning shootaround Popovich talked at some length about his impressions of Rubio and the retooled Wolves lineup.

“There are a lot of changes, not just Ricky Rubio,” Popovich said. “But you can see a lot of good.”

Especially when it comes to the relatively pared-down Wolves offense late in games.

“It’s basketball,” he said. “We all run the pick-and-roll. John [Stockton] and Karl [Malone] ran the pick-and-roll [in Utah] for a gazillion years. It was pretty simple, but it depends on who’s doing it. And [Rubio] is very good at it. No reason to make something complicated if someone is great at doing something simple.”

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On the improvement of Kevin Love:

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“He’s more confident than ever. In the past he wondered, ‘Should I shoot this shot or not?’ Now he knows. He knows he’s a stud. He’s out there to win and to kick … ”

Well, you can finish the rest.

“He’s a complete pro at this point who knows he’s one of the best players in the league,” Popovich said.

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On the coaching ability of Rick Adelman:

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“Rick has, in many ways, been under the radar for a long time,” Popovich said. “He’s always one of the first people owners want to hire, but he always manages to stay in the background, because he’s that kind of guy. But he probably did a better job than anybody in the league for two, three, four years in Houston with all the injuries they had. I’m not sure anybody figured that out.”

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On the recent direction of so-called ‘American culture’:

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“These guys, they travel around the world,” Popovich said of international players such as Rubio and Ginobili. “They’re more cultured than we are. Everyone acts like Americans are the ones … we have sort of an arrogance about us. Like we’re the cultured ones? Are you serious?

”Have you watched TV lately? Have you seen what Americans do? How many languages do you speak? And you wonder how they’re going to adjust to our culture? I hope they avoid it and keep their own!“

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Classic stuff, on several fronts, from one of the very best coaches in the history of the NBA.

… especially when it comes to his evaluation of the joy involved with watching Manu Ginobili ply his trade each and every day.

Prior to the start of the 2010-2011 season, many NBA observers felt that theSan Antonio Spurs were about to begin their descent on the leeward side of the championship mountain.

However, in the aftermath of what the Spurs have now done during the last 12 months:

PART I
- Amassing 61 wins in the 2010-2011 Regular Season

PART II

re-furbishing their player roster, via trades, free agent signings, and the expert manipulation of the 2010 and 2011 NBA Drafts, there should be little doubt, whatsoever, that the Spurs have every intention of staying perched exactly where they have been for the last decade, i.e. firmly entrenched in the upper echelon of the Western Conference.

The simple fact is that:

- RC Buford and Gregg Popovich have just acquired 4 young players through the 2011 NBA draft with the capacity to fill a “rotation spot” for the Spurs for the better part of the next 10 years

- The key acquisitions for the Spurs during this time frame have NOT been DeJuan Blair, or Kawhi Leonard … but, instead, Gary Neal, Tiago Splitter, James Anderson, Nando de Colo, David Bertans and Adam Hanga … more-than-one of whom actually have what it takes to become a high level player, down-the-road, in the NBA.

Related: On the Spurs and solving for pattern

If you happen to be a die-hard fan of the LA Lakers, and would like to see the team return to the NBA Finals, asap, then, the latest news from Hollywood, re: the search for a new head coach, is the worst possible:

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Sources: Brown, Lakers in serious talks

The Lakers are focused on talks with Brown, who was fired in 2010 after five seasons in Cleveland, where he went 272-138.

Los Angeles had considered longtime assistant Brian Shaw, but the focus is now on Brown, who is currently an NBA analyst for ESPN. There could be an agreement in place within the next 24-48 hours, sources say, but nothing has been finalized. Brown expects to reach a resolution one way or another with Los Angeles on Wednesday.

The two sides are working out issues that could be dealbreakers and cause the Lakers to go to another candidate, sources said, but there’s clearly momentum toward Brown becoming the next head coach.

The Lakers and Brown’s representation were discussing salary and length of contract on Tuesday, with the Lakers trying to hold the line on terms, sources said. Those talks will continue Wednesday, with the Lakers playing hard ball.

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Mike Brown?

Really?

This must be a joke, right?

Unless, of course, Dr. Jerry Buss has completely lost his mind?

Mike Brown has already demonstrated that he is nothing like his one-time mentor, Gregg Popovich … or, Doc Rivers … or, Rick Adelman … or, Rick Carlisle … or, the as yet, untested Brian Shaw.

Mike Brown is most definitely nothing like the ZenMaster, Phil Jackson. 

Mike Brown is someone who has been incapable of exercising the required “level of control” over a superstar player – like LeBron James [in Cleveland] or Kobe Bryant [in LA] – and lacks the type of “wholly integrated system of play” which is necessary to achieve major success in the NBA.

Mike Brown is a good defensive coach. Period.

Mike Brown is not someone who will improve the Lakers’ chances of the winning the NBA title next season, or anytime soon.  

The Lakers’ major problems this year had nothing to do with their defensive systems of play … and everything to do with:

i. Their overall lack of talent, in comparison with previous editions of their team;

ii. The poor play of Derek Fisher and Steve Blake;

iii. Their lack of Team Cohesion;

and,

iv. Their overall lack of offensive discipline.

Mike Brown is not the right man to effectively address the Lakers’ specific needs.

If the Lakers do eventually go in this direction, and hire Mike Brown, what it will mean is that something FUNDAMENTAL has now changed with the day-to-day operation of this team, and that Dr. Jerry Buss [owner] and Mitch Kupchak [GM] are no longer in control of this franchise.

An interesting series of observations made by Jeff Fogle, at hoopdata.com, concerning the current ‘style of play’ for the ‘new look’ 4-time NBA Champions:

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Spurs Still Defending at Faster Tempo

You might be surprised to find out that San Antonio is playing better defense this year than last year…even though their veterans are all a year older…and they supposedly brought in new guys who would jumpstart the offense at the expense of defense.

San Antonio significantly upgraded their offense while maintaining a strong defense (actually 1.4 points per 100 possessions better on defense right now than last season). That’s why they’ve got the best record in basketball.

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and the accompanying comment …

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Jeff, the numbers I have for the Spurs’ Offensive and Defensive Points Per Possession Efficiency Ratings are slightly different than yours:

It is going to be very interesting indeed to see how the playoffs unfold this year, given how the Spurs, Lakers, Mavericks, Thunder, Hornets, Nuggets, Celtics, Heat, Bulls, Hawks and Magic are performing, thus far, during the regular season schedule.

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provided by yours truly.

OF PARTICULAR NOTE

Others should be able to see clearly that this year’s verson of the Spurs is, both:

A. Improved in Offensive Efficiency,

2010-2011, 0.982 [0.020 higher]
2009-2010, 0.962

and, simultaneously,

B. Improved in Defensive Efficiency,

2010-2011, 0.907 [0.016 lower]
2009-2010, 0.923

relative to last year’s squad which failed to advance beyond the 1st Round of the Western Conference Playoffs.

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Q1. How exactly has San Antonio been able to achieve these performance improvements this season, when their ”Big 3″ has each grown 1 year older?

A1. PART I

i. The additional year of experience gained by George Hill [PG] and Dejuan Blair [PF], who are now more consistent in their execution, as only 3rd and 2nd year NBA players, respectively;

ii. The re-emergence of Richard Jefferson, a former all-star calibre player, at the SF position in New Jersey, who is now working under head coach, Gregg Popovich, for just his 2nd season;   

PART II

The arrival of 3 new ‘rotation calibre’ players:

a. Gary Neal [OG],
b. Tiago Splitter [PF/C], and
c. James Anderson [SF],

each of whom is a very solid, highly physical player;

and,

PART III

The relatively good health maintained, thus far, by their older players:

1. Tim Duncan, 2. Manu Ginobili, 3. Tony Parker, 4. Antonio McDyess, and 5. Matt Bonner.

If you’re a regular reader of this blog then you should already be quite familiar with the utmost level of R.E.S.P.E.C.T yours truly has for the best run organization in the NBA:

Kudos to Peter Holt, Gregg Popovich, RC Buford & Co. for:

- the discovery of Gary Neal [OG/SF]
- the decision to insert DeJuan Blair [PF] into the Starting Five beside Timmy D [C]
- the decision to stick with Richard Jefferson [SF] this past off season … and keep him in the 1st unit … when many other so-called NBA analysts were advising you to jettison him, asap
- the decision to stick with Tony Parker [PG] this past off season when many other so-called NBA analysts were advising you to trade him away in return for other assets in order to re-stock your cupboard for the future
- the decision to reduce the minutes allocated on a nightly basis to Timmy D [C], who remains one of the best players in the NBA
- the decision to use Manu Ginobili [OG/SF], as the Starting Off Guard
- the decision to keep George Hill [PG] in the 2nd unit, as the heir apparent to TP
- the decision to selection James Anderson [SF], as the Big 12 POY, with the No. 20 Selection in the 1st Round of the 2010 NBA Draft
- the decision to shift Matt Bonner [PF] to the 2nd unit, as the team’s top perimeter shooting Big Man
- the decision to shift Antonio McDyess [C] to the 2nd unit, as the team’s best mid-range shooting Big Man
- the decision to gradually add Tiago Splitter [C] into the mix this season, as a part-time role player who is going to be a very solid replacement for Timmy D down-the-road
- making the following list of player personnel decisions, in the month of November, which involved Garrett Temple, Alonzo Gee, Bobby Simmons, Danny Green, Ume Idoka and Chris Quinn

While other franchises in the NBA, either:

A. Languish forever in the lowest tier of the league;

or,

B. Are semi-permanetly entrenched in its middle tier, as a Treadmill Team;

… It is simply a joy to watch this outfit Go To Work! … 24-7-365.

If you’re not also having a great deal of fun, while coaching some of the greatest athletes in this world …

… then, at the end of the day, what’s it really all about?

Gregg Popovich is one of the very best coaches in NBA history.

Appreciate what he brings to the table, while you still can … because good things simply do not last forever.

According to Kevin Arnovitz and David Thorpe, Tim Duncan’s inability to defend the Phoenix Suns’ “1-5 Pick and Roll/Pop” series the same way he used to … when he was both younger and healthier … is a major source of the difficulty San Antonio is having in the early stages of San Antonio’s 2nd Round series in the Western Conference Playoffs.

Tim Duncan’s Decaying Pick-and-Roll Defense

Hmmm …

Is this actually the case, however?

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Q1. What is causing San Antonio the most difficulty, thus far, in their series with Phoenix?

A2. If you take a closer look at the following factual information …

Game 1 – Box Score, GameFlow

Game 2 – Box Score, Game Flow

What you should be able to see is that:

1. In Game 1

Antonio McDyess [-8] played 18:57 … and got 0:00 in the 4th quarter.
Matt Bonner [-7] played 13:28 … and got 0:00 in the 4th quarter.
Tim Duncan [-6] played 37:10 … and got 8:37 in the 4th quarter.

2. In Game 2

Antonio McDyess [+1] played 21:52 … and got 7.5 s in the 4th quarter.
Matt Bonner [0] played 15:00 … and got 44.7 s in the 4th quarter.
Tim Duncan [-6] played 39:20 … and got 9:31 in the 4th quarter.

3. In Game 1 …

With Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess on the floor together the Spurs played relatively even [i.e. -2] with the Suns.

With Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker on the floor together the Spurs were significantly better [i.e. +12] than the Suns.

4. In Game 2 …

With Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess on the floor together the Spurs played relatively even [i.e. +1] with the Suns.

With Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker on the floor together the Spurs were, again, slightly better [i.e. +3] than the Suns.

5. The major problem San Antonio is having in this series, so far, is NOT rooted in Tim Duncan’s less-than Herculian defense vs the Suns’ “1-5 Pick and Roll/Pop” series but, instead, in Gregg Popovich’s pig-headed INSISTANCE on:

A. ”Going small,” in the 4th quarter …

rather than using a conventional “2 Bigs + 3 Littles” alignment:

Option 1
Duncan and McDyess, or Duncan and Bonner, or Duncan and Mahinmi

Option 2
Blair and McDyess, or Blair and Bonner, or Blair and Mahinmi

Option 3
Duncan and Blair

Option 4
Blair and Mahinmi

… no matter what type of line-up Phoenix decides to employ;

and,

B. Using the Spurs 5 best players …

i.e. Parker + Ginobili + Jefferson + McDyess + Duncan

together, as a unit, for as little as 8:23 and 10:12, respectively, in Game 1 and 2.

While this corner has a tremendous degree of R.E.S.P.E.C.T. for Gregg Popovich … as one of the very best NBA coaches over the last 30+ years … the simple fact is that whenever he becomes stubborn in the Playoffs, and insists on going with a “small” line-up for large stretches of individual games, despite the presence of other legitimate [i.e. equal or superior] alternatives – where the specific match-ups would NOT be in his opponent’s favour by such a wide margin - the Spurs become little more than “just another average team” and are regularly eliminated from post-season competition much sooner than they need to be.

For the Spurs’ sake, let’s hope that Coach Pop checks his ego at the door for tonight’s game 3, takes a closer look at the specific individual match-ups on the floor, and decides to use a different approach than what he’s used to this point in this series … which has put Antonio McDyess’s rear end on the bench for the 4th quarters of Game 1 and 2.

If he does … then, you should expect San Antonio to triumph this evening.

If he does not, however … then, you should expect to see the Phoenix Suns playing in the Western Conference Finals.

3 weeks ago …

You were told in this space that the proper way for the Los Angeles Lakers to solve their problems this season would be to use Kobe Bean Bryant in a specific role:

Solving the Lakers’ problems with the Spurs, Apr 6 2010

Last week …

You were told in this space that the outcome of a playoff series can sometimes be determined by the ability of a team to make the correct game-to-game … and, THEN, in-game … adjustments, based on what its opponent’s specific strengths and weaknesses are and the best possible use of its own personnel:

Making the correct game-to-game adjustments can be THE difference between Winning and Losing in the Playoffs, Apr 23 2010

So much of what can be found on-line today concerning supposedly sound “basketball analysis” is little more than gobbledygook put forth by statistical gurus without a proper understanding of, 

“How the NBA game actually works.”

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Oklahoma City Thunder 87
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 111
Complete Series Info

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The fact is …

1. Sample sizes are rendered virtually meaningless;

2. League-wide averages are rendered virtually meaningless; and,

3. Creating and minimizing individual mis-matches against the best teams in the league – and a particular opponent of high calibre – are absolutely crucial;

 … when it comes to determining accurately which teams, coaches and, therefore, players will advance in the playoffs, or not.

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During the pre-season …

You were told in this space that the 2009-2010 NBA championship would, in all likelihood, be won by 1 of the following 5 teams:

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando Magic
Cleveland Cavaliers
Boston Celtics [i.e. depending upon the recovery of Kevin Garnett from injury]

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Los Angeles Lakers
San Antonio Spurs

Nothing which has happened since that time has fundamentally changed that perception. 

Right now …

The 4 best teams in the Eastern Conference are the Cleveland Cavaliers [4-1], Orlando Magic [4-0], Boston Celtics [4-1] and Atlanta Hawks [2-2].

The 4 best teams in the Western Conference are the Los Angeles Lakers [3-2], San Antonio Spurs [3-2], Utah Jazz [3-1] and Phoenix Suns [3-2].

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Barring any further major injuries …

This year’s NBA champions will, in all likelihood, be 1 of the following 3 teams:

Los Angeles Lakers, Phil Jackson [and Mitch Kupchak and Dr. Jerry Buss]
Orlando Magic, Stan Van Gundy [and Otis Smith and Richard DeVos]
San Antonio Spurs, Gregg Popovich [and RC Buford and Peter Holt]

… none of which happens to be the Cleveland Cavaliers with Mike Brown [and Danny Ferry and Daniel Gilbert].

Basketball is the ultimate TEAM Sport … with each player on the court having to be able to function adequately on Offense, on Defense, and in terms of Rebounding, in conjunction with the sound strategic and tactical decision-making skills of an elite level head coach, general manager and owner.

Those who think that basketball can be properly understood by examining the statistical norms, averages, outliers, etc., associated with representative “sample sizes”, “numerical formulas”, and all manner of “efficiency ratings,” are simply wasting their [and your] time.

Basketball is a game of:

I. Acumen;

and,

II. Inches;

… the most important of which are the “approximately 6″ located between the ears of a team’s owner, general manager, head coach and 8-9 regular rotation players.

Related:

Kobe Bryant, Closer to the ground

Every Move Must Have A Purpose

… ksb listens.

Although you might think you already know exactly who this man is …

after the first 13 years of his Hall-Of-Fame career which includes the following ridiculously long list of accomplishments:

Tim Duncan’s NBA.com Bio

Trust that … according to his side-kick, Mr. Ginobili … you may not.

Yes, Gregg Popovich has long been known to refer to him simply as “Timmy.”

And, yes, several years ago, Shaquille O’Neal teasingly christened him ”The Big Fundamental.”

But … from this point forward … he will now be known to yours truly as,

“THE BIG WARRANTY,”

which is the apt nickname that was bestowed on him this evening, in an in-game interview segment given by Charles Barkley’s favourite Argentinian … just before his nasal bone was unceremoniously displaced by making inadvertent contact with Dirk Nowitzki’s left elbow.

Said Manu, at the time, about his legendary teammate, the Spurs’ #21,

“He’s just always there … like a big insurance policy.”

Nothing more, and nothing less, than that.

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PS. The time is now 11:51 PM, and you can bet your bottom dollar that Manu’s nose was actually broken on that play, early in the 3rd quarter … and, yet, after stopping the profuse bleeding and getting patched up in the Spurs’ locker-room, by their trainer, he’s now continued to play in this game – driving to basket, fearlessly, rebounding, and defending. That … dear friends … is precisely “How a warrior – and a 3-time NBA Champion – conducts himself, in the heat of battle.” What a fantastic Game 3 this is!