khandor’s sports blog

Craig Kwasniewski [The Association], a die-hard LA Lakers fan and season-ticket holder, smacks one a clear country mile, when reviewing the precise reasons why the Boston Celtics SHOULD simply “stay the course” with their latter-day version of the Big Three:

Celtics Should Keep Ray Allen for One Last Ride with The Big Three

I think it’s insane to break up The Big Three so soon after hanging banner 17.  Shouldn’t they be allowed to give it one last shot together?  Shouldn’t we consider that this might be a rough patch in a long season?  Why break up a good thing so quickly, did you not forget the 22-year championship drought?

Anyway, here are a few reasons why the C’s should keep Ray Allen and give The Big Three one last chance at a title:

The long regular season. Relax Boston… I know it’s cold and miserable back east and the long winter is getting to you but you really need to be reminded how The Association works.  The NBA regular season is a very long 82-games over six months. Mix in preseason and hopefully a long postseason and you’re looking at a 8 or 9 month season. Veteran teams always seem to hit a lull somewhere between Christmas and Easter. It’s impossible to bring playoff efforts when your key players are in their 30’s… it’s just not possible (and the ones that did, like the Pat Riley Heat teams in the late 90’s collapsed in a heap by playoff time).  Just ride out this rough patch, usually teams find their second wind around March Madness.

Don’t be so quick to blow up the Big Three.  Counting playoffs The Big Three era has lasted about 2 1/2 seasons for a total of 253 games.  Actually that sounds like a good number of games… a good run at legitimate title contention, right?  Not really when you consider that the C’s were last legit contenders when Bird retired in 1992.  That’s 15 seasons with 6 brief postseason appearances (and only one conference championship appearance in 2001-02 with the Jim O’Brien chuck-and-duck era) for a grand total of 1,275 games.  Suddenly 253 games doesn’t sound like a lot does it?  Maybe you might want to remember the long drought before sending off a future hall-of-fame guard for a quick fix.

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In the judgment of yours truly, Craig’s take is 100% on the money.

Although Ubuntu! may not have enough left in the tank this season to be able to actually win-it-all, again … with the Lakers, Magic and Cavaliers being as strong as they are right now … it sure as heck DESERVES THE OPPORTUNITY TO TRY, at least, ONE MORE TIME, even bloodied and battered.

Simple put … that’s THE RIGHT STUFF of which True Champions are made, whether or not they, in fact, succeed on the court together.

The pertinent facts from this game?

1. The Raptors used their main rotation players for more minutes than the Celtics [Box Score].

2. The 3rd Quarter Play-By-Play.

3. Given the state of his physical condition at this stage of his recovery from off-season surgery on his right knee, expect to see Kevin Garnett check Andrea Bargnani this season … with Kendrick Perkins checking CB4 … when these teams face one another.

4. KPM’s for this game:

5. When they kick it into gear, the Celtics’ Rebounding [44-32] and Defensive/Offensive Efficiency [BOS: 0.99, 106 pts on 107 possessions; 0.99/Tor: 0.91, 90 pts on 99 possessions] numbers are superior to the Raptors. 

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 17 – at Boston [Fri Nov 27]

When healthy, this group of Celtics is too much for the Raptors to handle, with the only match-up advantage, in Toronto’s favour, deep on the bench.

Since the baseline 2005-2006 season …

these two teams have, in fact, gone in opposite directions in the Atlantic Division, with the Celtics re-asserting themselves as the dominant organization in the EC, on the whole, and the Raptors sinking back towards the bottom of the standings.

In sharp contrast to a large percentage of other Raptors fans, unfortunately, yours truly does not see this situation changing in the immediate future, given the different ways in which these two organizations operate.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 6-11

In line with the series of “Raptors vs Eastern Conference Opponent Match-ups” which are being presenting in this space [i.e. I & II], there’s an interesting POV expressed today, by Arsenalist, at Raptors Republic, i.e. Comparing our bench to others, which sees Toronto’s 2nd Tier of players as actually holding sway this season over the likes of Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago, while being even with Orlando.

FWIW …

The view from this corner, on this specific topic, is somewhat different:

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RATIONALE

Vs Boston Celtics

When House gets used beside HOF players like KG, PP & Ray Ray, neither Jack nor Belinelli is a comparable player, in terms of actual productivity.

Davis may comparable to Evans … until you include the fact that Reggie can’t shoot the ball, at all, and is a veritable pylon on D.

Wallace is simply a far better Big than either Evans or Nesterovic.

Vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Parker [6-6] is a semi-legit starting OG-SF in the NBA, compared with Belinelli, who is a legit starting PG-OG.

Moon’s versatility and PER are far better than Wright’s.

Ilgauskas is a solid mid & long range jump-shooter who is a tough check for either Nesterovic or Evans that far away from the basket.

Vs Orlando Magic

Pietrus is a far superior rebounder, defender and scorer than either Belinelli or Wright.

Anderson is a solid mid & long range jump-shooter who is a tough check for either Evans or Nesterovic.

Gortat is simply a far superior Big to Nesterovic or Evans, at this stage of their respective careers.

Vs Detroit Pistons

Villanueva is a far superior scorer, as a Big, to either Evans or Nesterovic.

Maxiell is a tougher player than Evans and a better interior scorer & rebounder than Nesterovic.

Wilcox is just as tough as Evans but a much better scorer.

Vs Chicago Bulls

Neither Belinelli nor Wright is as good a Wing player as Salmons.

Noah is a much better rebounder and shot-blocker than either Evans or Nesterovic.

Salmons & Noah together are enough to off-set the advantage which the Raptors have when compared to the trio of Hunter, Pargo & James.

Vs Atlanta Hawks

Crawford played over Belinelli last season [in G-State] for a reason [i.e. Jamaal can defend Marco; Marco can’t defend Jamaal].

Evans may be a comparable to Wright on D but he is a better player on O, as Maurice actually shoots at a solid percentage.

Pachulia is an even tougher Big than Evans.

Smith is a solid mid-range jump-shooter and a tough check for Nesterovic or Evans that far away from the basket.

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Vive La Différence!

There’s a tonne of information on-line right now but this one, courtesy of John Schuhmman, is as sound and concise as any:

Position-by-position: Top 5 free agents
As we’ve seen in the NBA Draft over the years, the best strategy is usually to take the best player available. You never know how draft picks will turn out, so selecting the guy closest to a sure thing, even if you’ve already got a similar player on your roster, is often the prudent way to go.

In free agency, though, teams pretty much know what kind of player they’re getting. Teams have seen what these guys can do and are able to better evaluate what they’re capable of and what they can bring to their team.

So the next few weeks will be about finding the right fit, both on the court and on the payroll.

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By position, the following players are under-rated [#, indicates where they should be ranked] in this year’s Free Agent class, according to yours truly:

POINT GUARDS
* Ramon Sessions [#1]
* Jarret jack [#2]
* CJ Watson [#6]

OFF GUARDS
* Anthony Parker [#1]

SMALL FORWARDS
* None

POWER FORWARDS
* Antonio McDyess [#3]
* Brandon Bass [#7]
* James Singleton [#9]

CENTERS
* Johan Petro {#4]

In what should go down as one of the great playoff performances of all-time for the Celtics …

* Minus Kevin Garnett [injured]
* Minus Leon Powe [injured]
* Down by 11 points … at the the 9:27 mark of the 4th quarter
* Minus Ray Allen … who fouled out at the 5:26 mark of the 4th [with the Celtics trailing, 80-83] 

Boston got a series of fantastic performances from the other players on their team which enabled them to out-last the Chicago Bulls, in OT, in Game 4.

In particular, when you look at the Full Play-By-Play what you should see is that Paul Pierce, after starting 6-17 [FGM-FGA], made his last 5 shots:

Q4, 01:13 … Driving Layup
Q4, 00:10 … 15ft Jump-shot [isolation]
———————–
OT, 01:16 … 16ft Jump-shot [isolation]
OT, 00:36 … 18ft Jump-shot [isolation]
OT, 00:03 … 20ft Jump-shot [isolation]

when the game was on the line;

while each of:

Kendrick Perkins, +35 *
Rajon Rondo, +29 *
Glen ‘Big Baby’ Davis, +23 *

[complete Box Score]

put forth a monster individual effort for Boston.

* k-PER = [FGM - FGA] + [FTM - FTA] + TRB + AST + ST + BS - TO - PF + PTS

Q1. Do the Celtics have enough left in the tank to get past the Cavaliers and then the Lakers this season?

A1. No, they do not.

What was on display last night, however, was THE WILL it takes to become a NBA champion.

Great Stuff, all around!

Basketball is a game played in three distinct phases:

* Offense
* Defense
* Rebounding

What it takes to win the NBA Championship [Dec 12, 2007]

Teams which combine these three phases of the game, in the most well-balanced way, succeed … on and off the court.

Quality Rating (QR) is a simple measure which combines the:

* Points Scored Differential Ranking (PSDR)
* Points Allowed Ranking (PAR)
* Rebounding Differential Ranking (RDR)

to produce a Quality Index Ranking for each of the 16 teams which eventually make the playoffs in the NBA.

Legitimate Contenders in the NBA, Part I [Dec 18, 2007]

Since the early part of the 2007-2008 regular season schedule, the Celtics established themselves as THE dominant team in the League; at one juncture, ranking #1 in all three measures (i.e. PSDR, PAR & RDR) and with a QR of 3 …

Legitimate Contenders in the NBA: Part V [Apr 18, 2008]

which, fundamentally, did not change throughout the balance of the season.

Most NBA observers fail to understand the value of Rebounding & Defense at the highest level of competition.

Most NBA observers fail to understand the value of Individual Match-ups & Mis-matches in determining Winners & Losers within a specific game.

Most NBA observers fail to understand the value of a Core Covenant built upon Rebounding, Defense, Individual Match-ups and the concepts of Shared (Unselfish) Offense, Teamwork and Ubuntu!

Red Auerbach understood these things.
Bill Russell understands these things.

So, now, does Danny Ainge …
and Doc Rivers,
and Thom Thibodeau, Armond Hill, Kevin Eastman & Clifford Ray,
and Bryan Doo, Walter Norton & Ed Lacerte,
and Paul Pierce, Ray Allen & Kevin Garnett,
and Kendrick Perkins & Rajon Rondo,
and James Posey, Eddie House & Scott Pollard,
and Tony Allen, Leon Powe & Brian Scalabrine,
and Glen Davis & Gabe Pruitt,
and PJ Brown & Sam Cassell.

As did Grady Rivers.

Kudos to the Men in Green … on a job supremely well done, from worst to first!