khandor’s sports blog

If you’ve taken the time to read a good portion of what’s been published on this blog to-date, then, you are already familiar with a few simple “facts” about the game of basketball:

[for example]

- it is comprised of 3 distinct main phases, i.e. Defense, Rebounding and Offense

- the 1 of these 3 phases which is the least well-understood, by “fans” and other so-called “expert observers” is Rebounding … followed by Defense … primarily, due to its “central” role and the way it influences the character of an elite level team

- basketball is, fundamentally, a “team” game … in which major success and failure [i.e. winning and losing the championship] are determined, in large part, by the highly specific strengths and weaknesses of the “individual” players and their ability to work “in concert” against a particular opponent

- while statistics, in general, are a terrific tool to help one understand how the game actually works, in isolation, they are not a wholly accurate reflection of reality and, at all times, need to be evaluated critically in the appropriate context

- an examination of highly specific anecdotal evidence is a gateway to developing an accurate understanding of the way in which a championship-winning team operates that is separate and distinct from its competition 

- putting an elite level team together properly is akin to “composing a virtuoso work of art” … moreso, than simplistically “painting by the numbers”

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To wit:

[this is the specific comment which was just submitted by yours truly at the Wages of Wins Journal]

Another Look at Team USA in 2010

Hmmm …

If someone could take the time to explain the reason the previous comment which I left in this thread was removed, it would be appreciated.

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In the interim, let’s try again.

It is a mistake in basketball judgment to think that keeping the 12 players with the highest WP48 numbers is necessarily the best way to construct a championship-winning basketball “team”.

Just because Gerald Wallace’s WP48 number … which [in fact] “fails to reflect a picture of reality” [according to a respected commentor [sic] on this site like Tom Mandel] … is substantially higher than Rudy Gay’s does not mean that simply “replacing Gay with Wallace” is the better way to go, in this case, i.e. with this specific group of players, their expected opposition, and the relatively large group of [at least, somewhat redundant] PG’s still on the active roster [i.e. Curry, Billups, Rondo, Rose and Westbrook], when compared with the sheer number of wing players [i.e. combo OG/SF/PF] with good size, strength, relative quickness - at their respective positions - and the ability to: i. defend, ii. rebound, iii. shoot the ball efficiently from distance, and iv. be high volume scorers, e.g. like Iguodala, Gay and Durant].

When you dissect how a championship-winning team is actually put together, what you will find is that rarely - if ever - is it simply a conglomeration of the 12 players with the highest available WP48 numbers [e.g. Was Charles Barkley a member of the 1984 team? or, Was Isiah Thomas a member of the original Dream Team?] And, the exact reasons for this are rarely - if ever - rooted in the way these specific players performed in lead-up public scrimmage situations.

Unfortunately, numeric-based analysis of basketball which reads like this is what can create a poor image overall for “stats” gurus, in the eyes of elite level coaches the world over.

[Hopefully this comment meets with your approval.]

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Enjoy!

According to Tim Povtak, a senior writer at NBA Fanhouse …

Aging Theo Ratliff Has Sparked Bobcats’ Playoff Rise

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However …

If you take a closer look at the individual Game Logs for 3 specific players on the Bobcats’ current roster [shown below]:

Theo Ratliff’s Game Log This Season For Charlotte, since Feb 19

Tyrus Thomas’ Game Log This Season For Charlotte, since Feb 19

Tyson Chandler’s Game Logs This Season for Charlotte, since Feb 19 

you should be able to see clearly that the team’s recently improved performance has actually coincided with the return to good health of Tyson Chandler [i.e. Charlotte's Back-up Center] and the gradual integration of Tyrus Thomas [i.e. Charlotte's Back-up Power Forward] into their primary rotation, as much as [or, perhaps, even more than] the role and production of Theo Ratliff, as their Starting Center.

When a team like Charlotte finally turns the corner and morphs into a legitimate playoff contender it is rarely the case that there is only 1 player responsible for this actual transformation.

The simple fact is …

Charlotte has been engaged in the process of a long term build-up over the course of the past 2 years, given the additions of:

Larry Brown, Head Coach

DJ Augustin, PG [acquired via the Draft]
Alexis Ajinca, C [acquired via the Draft]
Boris Diaw, PF-SF [acquired via trade]
DeSagana Diop, C [acquired via trade]
Gerald Henderson, OG [acquired via the Draft]
Derrick Brown, PF-SF [acquired via the Draft]
Tyson Chandler, C [acquired via trade]
Stephen Graham, SF-OG [acquired as an UFA]
Stephen Jackson, OG-SF [acquired via trade]
Tyrus Thomas, PF-SF [acquired via trade]
Theo Ratliff, C [acquired via trade]
Larry Hughes, G-F [acquired as an UFA]

and,

Michael Jordan, Principal Owner,

in conjunction with the decision to retain the services of:

Gerald Wallace, SF-PF
Raymon Felton, PG
Nazr Mohammed, C

… and, the single individual most responsible for their success today is their once much-maligned General Manager, Rod Higgins.

Related:

Kudos to the Bobcats for resurrecting their once morbid franchise 

5 Men On A Single String … Kudos to Larry Brown

During Wednesday’s television broadcast of the Orlando/Toronto game, Jack Armstrong, Toronto’s analyst, made the following observation about the perceived talent level for this year’s Raptors team:  

Then, on Thursday evening , during the FAN590’s ”Hoops” broadcast, Eric Smith, Toronto’s radio analyst, tried to re-iterated this same point of view, when a caller suggested that the Charlotte Bobcats should actually be considered as “a better team with more NBA talent than the Raptors” … along with, at least, 4 other teams in the Estern Conference, i.e. Boston, Orlando, Cleveland and Atlanta.

After hearing Eric’s response to that caller, this is the exact comment [including errors] which was submitted by yours truly to his FAN590 blog, The Rap, on Friday, Dec 18 2009, at 2:17 PM:

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Hi, Eric.

I heard you on speak with a caller on last night’s show, just prior to 8:00 PM, concerning your belief that the Raptors [11-17/.393] are a better team than the Bobcats [10-14/.417]. According to what you said, your opinion was based on conversations you have had with various NBA insiders who you have encountered across the league and what their impression of Toronto and Charlotte has been to this point in the season.

Respectfully, it is my contention that you … and these NBA insiders who you happened to have communicated with regarding the relative strength of these two teams … happen to be incorrect in this assessment, and will eventually be proven wrong are the season plays itself out.

After starting the season poorly, without Stephen Jackson on their roster, the Bobcats have begun to climb up the standings in the Eastern Conference, and are now ahead of the Raptors. Although the Raptors [#4] have played a more difficult schedule than the Bobcats [#15], to this point, IMO, Charlotte has more “NBA talent” on its current roster, and should probably be expected to close out the current season by finishing ahead of Toronto in the final standings.

Calderon [+1] > Felton
DeRozan < Jackson [+1]
Turkoglu < Wallace [+2]
Bosh [+2] > Diaw
Bargnani < Chandler [+3]
———————-
Jack = Augustin
Belinelli < Henderson [+4]
Wright < Brown [+5]
Johnson = Mohammed
Nesterovic [+3] > Diop
———————-
Banks < Murray [+6]
Seems [+4] > Law
 Mensah-Bonsu = Graham
Evans [+5] ?
O’Bryant = Ajinca
———————-
Triano < Brown [+7]

PS. Hopefully, the fanbase should now be able to see that we’ve been saying for a while now, re: Jose Calderon’s relative lack of individual defensive prowess not being the major catalyst for the team’s many short-comings on that side of the ball, has been a highly accurate assessment.

————- 

As you can clearly see there are several typos and what appear to be “publication errors” contained in that specific comment, which was submitted rather hurriedly and is still awaiting moderation/publication at The Rap.

In an effort to clear up any mis-understanding which Eric Smith - or other visitors to his blog - might have … 

Here is a more “in-depth” analysis of the rosters for the Raptors and the Bobcats, with a few adjustments to the initial ratings that more accurately reflect the current state of affairs with these two teams, from the perspective of this coner:

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Visitors here are invited to elaborate further on their own answer to this question in the comments section.

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The defensive system of an elite level basketball team is based on the execution of Rules and/or Concepts which are created by a team’s coaching staff to cover each situation which might occur during that team’s season; Rules and/or Concepts with which a casual [or, even, a die-hard] fan might not be familiar with already.

During this specific sequence:

Chris Bosh is X5, checking Tyson Chandler [C/O5].
Andrea Bargnani is X4, checking Boris Diaw [PF/O4].
Hedo Turkoglu is X3, checking Gerald Wallace [SF/O3]. 
DeMar DeRozan is X2, checking Stephen Jackson [OG/O2].
Jose Calderon is X1, checking Raymond Felton [PG/O1].

WHEN O1 MADE THE INITIAL LOW-POST ENTRY PASS TO O2 [RIGHT BLOCK] AND LAKER CUT TO THE WEAK SIDE OF THE FLOOR:

X1 was responsible for denying the Pass-back to O1 [as he cut through the lane to weak side of the floor [which is exactly what X1 did]. Once O1 got to the weak side, X1 was responsible for: i. Being outside of the lane on the weak side [to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation]; and, ii. Releasing Off his individual check [O1] to Zone Up against whichever opponents [i.e. 1, 2 or 2+] were located on the perimeter of the weak side.

X2 was responsible for defending against O2 in a 1-v-1 situation.

X3 was responsible for: i. Being outside of the lane on the weak side of the floor [to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation]; and, ii. Releasing Off his individual check [i.e. O3] to Zone Up against whichever opponents [i.e. 1, 2 or 2+] were located on the perimeter of the weak side.

X4 was responsible for: i. Being outside of the lane above the Free Throw Line [to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation]; and, ii. Releasing Off his individual check [i.e. O4] to Zone Up against whichever opponents [i.e. 1, 2 or 2+] were located on the perimeter above the Free Throw Line Extended [either on the weak or the strong side of the floor].

X5 was responsible for defending against O5 [located at the ball side elbow] in a 1-v-1 situation.

SPECIFIC RULES FOR O2 vs X2 POST-UP SITUATIONS vs MAN-2-MAN D

Since X2 is a frail 1st year player [20 yrs of age] who cannot defend successfully vs O2’s post-ups … based on a lack of guile and physical strength … X4 was responsible for Covering Down on the ball-handler to get the ball out of O2’s hands [in an effort to avoid the 1-v-1 isolation vs X2]. In general, there are three different techniques which a team can use to execute this specific Cover Down with X4, after the Post Entry Pass has already been made: I. Immediately, On The Initial Catch; II. Delayed, On The 1st Dribble; and, III. Late, on the 2+ Dribble. In this instance, the Raptors chose not to Cover Down Immediately, but to execute either Option II or III … which one exactly is unclear, given the physical movement of X4. All that’s known for certain is that X4 did not execute Option I.

AS X4 PREPARED TO INITIATE HIS COVER DOWN [either Option II or III vs O2]

X3 was responsible for Stepping-up Above The Free Throw Line Extended in order to maintain a Zoned Up position vs O4 [who moved above the Three Point Line] on the weak side of the floor [i.e. in order to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation].  

X1 was responsible for maintaining a Zoned Up position vs O1 [weak side FTLX] and O3 [weak side Corner].

X5 was responsble for: i. Denying an interior pass to O5 [who had cut to the weak side Block]; ii. Being within a step of O5 on the weak side of the floor [in order to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation], iii. Providing Help against a baseline drive by O2.

THE PASS FROM O2 TO O3 HAPPENED WHEN:

1. X4 shifted to the Left Elbow and waited for O2 to take his 1st dribble … which never came … in order to initiate Option I or II in his Cover Down vs O2.

2. X3 failed to communicate with X1 and X5 that he [i.e. X3] was Stepping-Up to defend the area of the floor above the Free Throw Line [i.e. where O4 was positioned] in unison with X4’s Cover Down; and,

3. X1 and X5 failed to: i. Recognize that X3 was Stepping-Up to defend that specific area of the floor and was no longer responsible for being Zoned Up on the weak side of the floor [i.e. vs O3 and O1]; and, then, ii. React quickly to the baseline basket cut which was beautifully executed by O3.  

SPECIFIC RULES FOR O2 vs X2 POST-UP SITUATIONS vs ZONE D

If the Raptors had shifted into their Zone Defense vs O2’s post-up, then their players would have been located in the following positions [in a 2-3 Zone]:

X2 - Left Baseline Defender … checking O2, in a 1-v-1 situation

X4 - Left Top Defender … at the Left Defensive Elbow

X1 - Right Top Defender … at the Right Elbow

X3 - Right Baseline Defender … at the Right Block

X5 - Middle Defender … at the Left Block

Since, X1 [i.e. Jose Calderon] did NOT step-up to the Right Elbow position and, instead, X3 Stepped-up to defend against X4, this indicates that the Raptors had not shifted into their Zone Defensive alignment during this sequence but were responsible for moving and reacting to O2’s post-up within the parameters of their Specific Man-2-Man Cover Down Rules.

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PS. Follow-up queries are welcome in the comments section.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 16 – at Charlotte [Wed Nov 25]

This is a back-2-back game for the Raptors. Although these two line-ups are relatively equivalent, in terms of individual match-up advantages, the additional experience which Raja Bell and Larry Brown have, in comparison with DeMar DeRozan and Jay Triano, respectively, gives Charlotte an edge which should be enough to secure a W in a close game.

Expect the Bobcats to be one of several improved teams in the EC this year battling for a lower tier playoff spot with the Raptors.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 6-10

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PS. This contest holds a high degree of interest, due to the presence of rookies DeMar DeRozan [No. 9/1st Rd, USC, OG-SF], Gerald Henderson [No. 12/1st Rd, Duke, OG-SF] and Derrick Brown [No. 40/2nd Rd, Xavier, PF-SF]. Brown, in particular, was a relatively unheralded player in this year’s NBA Draft who yours truly would have liked to see the Raptors trade down to obtain … in addition to receiving other assets, in exchange for the No. 9 [overall] Selection. Although it is still very early in the process, all three players seem to be acquitting themselves nicely in the NBA.

“How to turn around the fortunes of your pro sports team”, NBA 101 Management Handbook, p. 23.

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Make a legitimate run for the 8th playoff spot in the 2008-2009 season

Add Vladimir Radmanovic [Lakers] in exchange for Adam Morrison

Add DeSagana Diop [Mavs] in exchange for Ryan Hollins & Matt Carroll

Decide NOT to trade Raymond Felton [PG]

Add Raja Bell and Boris Diaw and Sean Singletary [Suns] in exchange for J-Rich & J-Dudley

Add Juwon Howard [as a veteran Big off the bench] from the scrap heap

Decide NOT to trade Sean May AND to sit him on the bench  

Add Cartier Martin [OG/SF] and Dontell Jefferson [OG] from the pool of undrafted players

Add DJ Augustin [as a solid PG] from the 2008 NBA Draft

Add Alexis Ajinca [as a long term project, C] from the 2008 NBA Draft

Decide NOT to trade Gerald Wallace [SF/PF]

Hire Larry Brown to coach your team AND empower him to make trades

Retain Nazr Mohammed [as a solid veteran Big off the bench]

Re-sign Emeka Okafor, your 2004 No. 2 [overall] Draft Pick, as an emotionally stable, hard-working Center, who can Rebound & Defend his position, when others suggested that he was a “bad” long term investment for your team

Hire the most reknowned former player in NBA history to oversee the operation of your franchise [i.e. you know who]

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It’s not rocket science … and, your GM certainly doesn’t NEED to have been named a winner of the NBA’s Executive of the Year Award even one time, during his career to-date.

FINAL SCORE: TORONTO 89, Charlotte 102
Complete Game Info

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Offensively, Andrea Bargnani played well; and, Chris Bosh was okay.

Defensively, Bosh was a non-factor … primarily because he was, once again, checking the #4/PF position [vs Boris Diaw], which he cannot do at a high level, especially with an injured right knee.

However, the 2 absolute worst Raptors last night, on this end of the floor, were Bargnani [from a Team D standpoint] and Shawn Marion [who was simply embarassed by Gerald Wallace, from an Individual D standpoint ... primarily because he was checking the #3/SF position, which he should no longer be asked to do at this stage of his career].

Jose Calderon was okay defensively, any time he did not have to work against a Pick situation WITH Bargnani as the Picker’s defender. In this specific situation the Raptors simply get destroyed … because of Bargnani’s inability to defend without [i] fouling or [ii] getting blown by or [iii] shot over, not because of Calderon’s inability to keep his own check in front of him.

Calderon was victimized on the defensive glass several times in the 2nd half primarily because the Raptors’ #5’s/#4’s/#3’s could not get the job done rebounding wise and Raymond Felton was able to out-quick him to loose balls in the mid-range area of the court.

On account of Bosh’s limited mobility these days [see the lingering effect of his knee injury], it’s also become quite an adventure every his check goes to set a Pick on Calderon, as Bosh simply doesn’t have the lateral agility right now it takes to defend properly vs this action.

When you’re playing with an injury, it is much easier to move semi-properly on offense, since you are the one initiating that action.

On defense, since you’re the one “reacting” instead, it’s a different situation altogether.

Forget about the Debacle in Denver.
Forget about the Mishap vs Milwaukee.
Forget about the shellacking last week at Charlotte.
Forget about all the other losses incurred so far this season.

At home, last night, in a game they ABSOLUTELY had to win to justify Bryan Colangelo’s FAITH in them, as a group of players WHO HE HAS SAID REPEATEDLY …

“Is the best he’s assembled thus far for the Raptors, on paper …”

this collection of players and coaches came up whoa nellie woefully short and was thoroughly embarassed at the ACC by the once-lowly Bobcats … who have successfully turned their franchise around this season and are now heading in the RIGHT direction under the tutelage of Larry Brown … as was suggested in the summer was going to happen for this team this season, in comparison with the Raptors.

Right now, heading toward the future, there is NO REASON whatsoever for anyone who is not named Bryan Colangelo to believe in earnest [and with a degree of basketball sophistication] that any of the following teams will finish below the Toronto Raptors in the 2009-2010 Eastern Conference regular season standings:

1 Cleveland
2 Boston
3 Orlando
4 Atlanta
5 Philadelphia
6 Miami
7 Detroit
8 Chicago
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New Jersey
Charlotte
Milwaukee
Indiana
New York
Washington

None, whatsoever.

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RELATED:

Fans at boiling point [The best and most thorough basketball article these eyes have read from Frank Zicarelli in a long time. Kudos to him!]

FINAL SCORE: Raptors 86, BOBCATS 112
Complete Game Info

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It’s becoming comical to see and track just How MUCH BETTER the Raptors are when [1] Chris Bosh plays the Center position, in comparison with [2] the Power Forward position, or [3] when he’s not in the game at all.

Yet, certain fan web sites and on-line voices are now maintaining that the team MIGHT be better off long term if they trade their Captain and continue to re-build their squad around Andrea Bargnani, as their Cornerstone Player … either, as their Starting Center or their Starting Power Forward.

In reality, this option makes little sense … based on the in-game production of these two players, the roles they fulfil for this team and the way in which the Raptors perform when each of them is on the court, either, separately or together.

If you look at the following Substitution Chart, you should be able to see:

* How the Raptors played:

1. With Bosh at Center - 10:51, -1
2. With Bosh at Power Forward - 28:04, -10
3. Without Bosh on the floor at all - 09:05, -15

4. With Bargnani at Center - 34:17, -20
5. With Bargnani at Center AND Bosh at Power Forward - see 2 [above]
6. Without Bargnani on the floor at all - 13:43, -6  

* How the Raptors played with 3 or more Solid Rebounders on the floor, together, in comparison with only 1 or 2 Solid Rebounders on together:

3 Solid Rebounders, -5

PG/Parker + SF/Graham + PF/Mensah-Bonsu + C/Bosh = -1
PG/Parker + SF/Marion + PF/Mensah-Bonsu = -2
SF/Graham + PF/Mensah-Bonsu + C/Bosh = 0
PG/Graham + SF/Marion + PF/Mensah-Bonsu = -2

versus

1 or 2 Solid Rebounders, -21

SF/Marion + PF/Bosh = -11
SF?Marion + PF/Mensah-Bonsu = -4
SF/Graham + PF/Bosh = +1
SF/Graham + PF/Mensah-Bonsu = -7

Moving forward from here, with a 24-44/.353 W-L record, the best available option for the Raptors DOES NOT involve trading Chris Bosh [OPTION ONE] and using Andrea Bargnani as their Cornerstone Player, despite what many delusional Raptors fans and certain other NBA observers might think … but, rather:

OPTION TWO

I. Using Chris Bosh as their Main-Frame Center;

II. Using Shawn Marion as their Starting Power Forward AND Back-up Small Forward;

III. Using Joey Graham as their Main-frame Small Forward;

IV. Using Anthony Parker as their Starting Off Guard AND Back-up Point Guard;

V. Using Jose Calderon as their Main-Frame Point Guard;

VI. Using Andrea Bargnani as their Back-up Center;

VII. Using Pops Mensah-Bonsu as their Back-up Power Forward;

VIII. Using Jason Kapono as their Back-up Off Guard [or Back-up Small Forward];

IX. Not using any of their other players, except in emergency situations.

X. Adding a solid young, athletic, multi-dimensional player in the 2009 NBA Lottery;

XII. Re-signing Shawn Marion to a manageable contract extension, or signing a comparable or better UFA [e.g. Hedo Turkoglu]; 

XIII. Solidifying their Head Coach position;

XIV. Making the 2009-2010 Eastern Conference Playoffs; and,

XV. Re-signing Chris Bosh to a Maximum Contract Extension.

OPTION THREE

I. Trading Andrea Bargnani … in exchange for a more multi-dimensional “No. 2″ player, e.g. like Rudy Gay [OG/SF/PF];

II. See the remainder of OPTION TWO [above].

Rebounding, Team Defense and Shared Team Offense are the 3 main phases of Basketball and it is extremely difficult … if not impossible … for a team to function at a High End level with a Main-Frame Center that is not at least an above-average performer in the first two categories because of the other subsequent adjustments THIS FACT alone forces upon the other four [4] positions on your team, on a possession-by-possession basis.

It’s half-time of tonight’s Raptors [6-7] vs Bobcats [4-9] game, and this is what the Box Score looks like:

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			Field Goals				Rebounds
	pos	min	fgm-a	3pm-a	ftm-a	+/-	off	def	tot	ast	pf	st	to	bs	ba	pts
E. Okafor	F	11:13	1-2	0-0	2-2	+1	1	5	6	1	2	2	0	1	0	4
G. Wallace	F	16:57	5-8	0-0	7-11	-2	0	3	3	1	2	1	1	0	1	17
A. Ajinca	C	04:00	1-4	0-0	0-0	-3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2
D. Augustin	G	21:18	1-2	1-2	3-3	-5	0	0	0	2	0	1	5	0	0	6
R. Felton	G	20:01	2-5	0-1	0-0	-2	0	1	1	4	0	1	1	0	0	4
J. Dudley		12:00	3-3	0-0	0-1	-6	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	6
A. Morrison		08:50	0-4	0-3	0-0	-6	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. Carroll		06:41	1-4	0-2	1-1	-3	0	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	3
N. Mohammed		07:29	0-1	0-0	0-0	-2	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
S. May		06:25	2-2	0-0	0-0	+5	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4
R. Hollins		05:06	0-1	0-0	0-0	-2	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	0	1	0
S. Brown		00:00	-	-	-	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total		120	16-36	1-8	13-18		5	14	19	12	10	7	9	1		46
			44.4%	12.5%	72.2%		Team Rebs: 4				Total TO: 9