khandor’s sports blog

There are many good reasons this little corner of the net has long held that Jerry West deserves to be placed in an exalted category among NBA General Managers:

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Last season it was Carmelo Anthony. This season it’s Dwight Howard. Players who hold the threat of walking as a free agent over a team to force a trade to a destination they prefer.

Jerry West wants none of it. He says teams should call the player’s bluff — make him leave the money on the table to walk away.

The legendary player and long-time league GM of the Lakers and Grizzlies (and current Golden State minority owner and team consultant) was asked in interviews on ESPN Radio in Los Angeles how he would handle such a situation if it were his team.

“I honestly think I’d call their bluff,” West said in an interview on 710 ESPN’s Mason and Ireland show Thursday, not mentioning Howard specifically. “I really would, because I don’t think any agent or player is going to leave $30 million on the table. I just don’t believe that’s going to happen….”

“If I were an executive on a team where a player says he’s going to leave, let him leave,” West said on 710 ESPN’s Max and Marcellus show earlier Thursday. “It would be better than saddling yourself with a bunch of players that are not going to fit in to what you’re trying to do — high-salaried players, in many cases overpaid players by today’s standards, that would burden you going forward.

“I’d almost rather start over again myself. You’re not going to replace that player, but there’s an enormous penalty there and it looks like to me like the inmates are running the asylum if you let that happen.”

Jerry West just became very popular in Orlando.

West has always been a risk taker and his strategy comes with one big risk — that the player isn’t bluffing and would leave. Meaning the franchise gets nothing. Maybe West would rather just start over, but if you hold out like Denver did (and find an owner like James Dolan who caves to work with) you can get a fair amount of talent back.

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The most important of which involves a specific perspective on the game of life that transforms negatives into positives, at all costs.

i.e. When a free agent leaves your team it is simply not the case that, “The franchise gets nothing [in return].” The simple facts are that: i) The franchise actually gets the Salary Cap space formerly associated with the departing player to use as it sees fit going forward; and, ii) The departing free agent gets to sign an employment contract with a new team worth $30.0 M less than he could have received from his former team.

If someone says that they no longer wish to work with you, or your team, then, once their present contract expires, you should simply wish them well and allow them to leave, so that you are in position to continue moving forward without them.

It really isn’t about the playing bluffing games at all.

What it’s really about is the important difference between: a) Being a Winner; and, b) Being a Loser.

Does Anyone Understand Advanced Stats?

What do Stats Tell You?

Zach and Henry Abbott (and indeed others) have scoffed at GMs when they consider simple things like per minute stats “advanced”. Basketball-Reference has been showing these for years and it is the first hit in Google for “Basketball Stats”. Rather than squabble over stats being easy or advanced though, we should ask what they tell us. Per minute stats are great. They tell you how well a player is doing in an easy defined range that makes it easy to make comparison across players.  In fact one of my first stat scans for any article is to use Basketball-Reference’s Player Comparison finder and look at the Per 36 Minutes Table  (for example Howard vs. Ibaka).

When you use a stat it’s not important if it is “advanced” or not, it’s important if it tells you useful information.

• Does blocks per minute give us useful information? Yes!
• Is it a better measure than blocks per game? Yes!
• Does a player’s Adjusted Plus Minus or Horoscope give you any useful information? No!

Yes, some people think APM is “advanced” (and someone might feel the same about a horoscope).   But who cares if a subset of a community has deemed APM “advanced”?

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According to Dre:

Blocks per minute are a better measure than blocks per game?

Hmmm …

Really?

The Facts, And Nothing But The Facts … are actually these:

1. Serge Ibaka registered a higher number of blocks per minute during the 2010-2011 season than did Dwight Howard.

2. Dwight Howard registered the same number of blocks per game during the 2010-2011 season as did Serge Ibaka.

3. Whether Serge Ibaka or Dwight Howard is actually a “better shot blocker” is indeterminable, based solely on their respective stats in categories like “blocks per minute” and “blocks per game” without, also, taking into consideration a host of other basketball-related factors, such as, “How each player was actually used, according to the specific game-plans of their respective teams during the 2010-2011 NBA season.”

Related

Q & A: An expert on experts tells us how to spot the bad ones

It is simply astounding that a nonsensical perspective like this one:

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Vote Derrick Rose for love of the game

Players like Derrick Rose should be rewarded.

So, you MVP voters, if you just want to say that the Bulls are the best team in the NBA, and you love Derrick Rose and that’s that, I’m cool with it. Vote for the dude. To me, that’s a good enough rationale.

However, one little thing: Do not tell me that the reason you’re voting for him is because without him the Bulls would be a disaster.

That’s misguided and insulting. It’s a little insulting to Dwight Howard, who is the only candidate if that’s the rationale. (Even James is a stronger candidate by this measure.)

But mainly, it’s entirely insulting to everyone else who works for the Bulls.

The Bulls are a hot story today because they manhandled the Boston Celtics last night and are on track to finish at the top of the East. They didn’t beat the Celtics, though, because of Rose’s memorable pull-up 3s off the dribble. (Monta Ellis can do that too, and it doesn’t lead to all that many wins.)

They beat them because Paul Pierce and Ray Allen could barely get a shot off. The Celtics’ big four finished 15-of-43, and it’s not like they were missing bunnies.

Steals, shot-clock violations, fumbled passes, broken plays. The Celtics’ offense, last night, was complete and total mush — 38 percent from the floor — and that was no accident. That’s why they lost, and that’s not some gift Derrick Rose gave the Bulls.

That was because the Bulls knew exactly what to do. They do it to everybody. Tom Thibodeau took the ideas and direction that once made Boston the NBA’s best defense, and, against long odds, transported them to a new roster, where the players have bought in, in no small part because of Rose.

Defense is half the game, and at that, Thibodeau, is a wrecking crew.

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concerning the specific role which Derrick Rose has played this season for the Chicago Bulls …

should receive such widespread attention.

In review:

- The Chicago Bulls are the best team in the East, so far, this season. [Yes]

- Derrick Rose is the best player on the Bulls this season. [Yes]

- The Bulls have several other good-to-very-good players on their current roster. [Yes]

- The Bulls have the best Defensive team in the East this season. [Yes]

- Tom Thibodeau is a terrific defensive coach who has proved his mettle with the Bulls and the Boston Celtics [former Assistant Coach]. [Yes]

- The play of Derrick Rose has, somehow, NOT contributed to the Bulls’ top-rated Defensive performance this season. [Are you kidding?]

Hmmm …

As of Sat-Apr-09-2011, the IPR for Derrick Rose, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard looks like this:

1. LeBron James, +31.48

2. Dwight Howard, +28.39

3. Derrick Rose, +27.44

IPR = Individual Player Rating [i.e. kPER + TWLC]
kPER = Pts – [FGA-FGM] – [FTA-FTM] + Reb + Ast + St + Bl – TO – PF]/GP
TWLC = MPG/240 * [Team Wins - Team Losses]

The fact is:

- Statistically, LeBron James [SF, Miami Heat] has made the greatest contribution to the performance of his team this season, in comparison with the contributions of Dwight Howard [C, Orlando Magic] and Derrick Rose [PG, Chicago Bulls]

- Statistical production, in isolation, is not an accurate reflection of a single player’s contribution to the performance of his team in a given season.

When you examine each of the following rosters:

and consider:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1 Chicago Bulls, 59-20/.747

2-3 Miami Heat, 55-24/.696

4 Orlando Magic, 50-29/.633

A. Where each team will finish in the League Standings;

B. The games missed this season by Carlos Boozer [23] and Joakim Noah [34];

and,

C. Which OTHER players on each roster have the capacity to step up to replace the “contribution” made to their team this season by LeBron James, Dwight Howard, and Derrick Rose, should they each have been removed from their respective rosters this year, then, it is fairly clear-cut who should be named the Most “Valuable” Player for 2010-2011.

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Instead of wasting time and energy saying that Derrick Rose should not get the NBA’s MVP Award this season because of the outstanding work done by Tom Thibodeau and Gar Forman [and John Paxson], or because his simple game stats have been surpassed by LeBron James and Dwight Howard …

The Main Reason Derrick Rose SHOULD win the NBA’s MVP Award this season

- Without the way Derrick Rose has played, this version of the Bulls would, in all likelihood, have finished somewhere in the middle-of-the-pack in the East.

- However, with the way Derrick Rose has played, the Bulls are going to finish as the No. 1 team in the East.

The Main Reason Tom Thibodeau SHOULD win the NBA’s COTY Award this season

- Without the way Tom Thibodeau has coached, this version of the Bulls would, in all likelihood, have finished somewhere in the middle-of-the-pack in the East.

- However, with the way Tom Thibodeau has coached, the Bulls are going to finish as the No. 1 team in the East.

The Main Reason Gar Forman [and John Paxson] SHOULD win the NBA’s EOTY Award this season

- Without the way Gar Forman has GMed, this version of the Bulls would, in all likelihood, have finished somewhere in the middle-of-the-pack in the East.

- However, with the way Gar Forman has GMed, the Bulls are going to finish as the No. 1 team in the East.

Dying woman shows Dwight Howard what living is all about

This is why sports have always been so amazing to me – because they have the extraordinary power and potential to pull people together. Doesn’t matter if you’re black or white, Republican or Democrat, Christian or Muslim, Gator or Seminole – everybody comes together at a Magic game and roots for the same team.Peyton Manning, a white quarterback, loves to throw the football to Reggie Wayne, a black wide receiver. Magic forward Mickael Pietrus, a black man from Guadeloupe, is great friends with center Marcin Gortat, a white man from Poland.NBA, you see teams made up of players from every country and every race, and we all get along,” Boston Celtics coach Doc Rivers once told me when he coached the Magic. “We’re a pretty good model for all walks of life.”

I’ve written it before and I’ll reiterate it here: The sports world, perhaps more than any other part of our everyday lives, truly is color blind. Mostly white fans will fill an arena to cheer for mostly black basketball players.

“In the

What’s it tell you when Dwight Howard, a young, incredibly healthy black man, is inspired by Kay Kellogg, an older, incredibly sick white woman – and vice versa?

Kay’s entire body is in excruciating pain, but on Sunday night she was smiling and clapping and cheering at every point Dwight scored and every rebound he pulled down.

She cried on the way to the arena as she reflected back on all the good times Dwight and the Magic have provided her over the years.

“I was just so excited, I started to tear up,” she said. “I was thinking about all the times I’ve watched Dwight and how happy he makes me feel. I just love him and the Magic so much.”

The thing is, he was supposed to inspire her but she has ended up inspiring him. He sees how she is facing her death and it makes him want to make the most of his life. She is not depressed. She is not bitter. She just talks about how lucky she is to have lived such a wonderfully full life.

“She’s just a blessing,” Dwight says. “She’s just overwhelmed with joy every time she comes to a Magic game. … We take life for granted sometimes. One thing I learned from her is that she makes the most of every breath she takes. We all need to be like that.”

Watch, learn and repeat …

… ad infinitum.

The ‘Codes’ of the Sensai.

Approximately 13 months ago, the following question was asked in this space, in a poll:

Where will Andrea Bargnani rank in the Eastern Conference next season, as a Center? … You Make The Call

pertaining to the 2009-2010 season.

As the Raptors complete their seemingly annual summer make-over, under the watch of Bryan Colangelo/GM, in preparation for the 2010-2011 campaign, it is interesting to see how the landscape is shaping up in the Eastern Conference, when evaluating the individual players who might be expected to start at the Center position for their respective teams:

PART 1 – Based On Basketball Acumen

PART 2 - Painting By the Numbers [from hoopdata for the 2009-2010]

From Toronto’s perspective …

The more some things change, the more other things simply stay the same.

In the aftermath of Game 2 …

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Stan Van Gundy will try to get Rashard Lewis more involved offensively

Rashard Lewis Needs to Improve Offensively if the Orlando Magic Want to Challenge the Boston Celtics

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This is now a central topic for discussion, on the part of Magic fans and other NBA observers.

In reality …

The answer is very simple.

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Orlando MUST:

1. Stop posting up Dwight Howard on the block.

2. Start using Dwight Howard in repeated ”2/3-5, High Middle, Pick and Roll” situations …

i. With the following players on the court:

Off Guard/#2 – Vince Carter

Center/#5 – Dwight Howard

Point Guard/#1 – Jameer Nelson

Small Forward/#3 – Mickael Pietrus

Power Forward/#4 – Rashard Lewis

ii. Located in the following positions on the court:

Off Guard/#2-Small Forward/#3, as The Ball-handler

Center/#5, as The Pick and Roller 

Point Guard/#1, in The Original Ball Side Corner

Small Forward/#3-Off Guard/#2, at The Original Ball Side Free Throw Line Extended

Power Forward/#4 – in The Original Weak Side Corner

3. Demand that their #2-3′s attack the Hedging Pick Defender, by going around him toward the Original Weak Side of the floor and, then, looking for one of the following options:

a. His own drive to the basket;

b. A lob pass to D-12, for a dunk opportunity;

c. A kickout pass to Rashard Lewis for an uncontested 3PT shot from the corner;

d. A throwback pass to Mickael Pietrus for an uncontested 3PT shot, as he re-locates to the Top Of The Key position [following Howard's roll to the basket];

e. A cross-court skip pass to Jameer Nelson for an uncontested 3PT shot, as he re-locates to the New Weak Side Free Throw Line Extended position.

If Orlando runs this simple set play … this exact way … it will generate, either:

I. Open shots galore for Rashard Lewis;

or,

II. A career night for one of Vincent Lamar Carter, or Mickael Pietrus, as their primary ball-handler.

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PS. Hopefully, Stan Van Gundy is paying close attention to what’s written here.

In general, Kevin Arnovitz does a solid job breaking down the different “actions” involved in a NBA game.

In this instance, however, he has incorrectly pointed an accusing finger in the direction of Rashard Lewis for Orlando’s apparent failure to box out Josh Smith on the last second follow-up dunk which was the difference in last night’s victory for Atlanta.

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The Incredible Finish in Atlanta

Just over a minute later, Vince Carter deadens the crowd when he nails an off-balanced, contested bomb from beyond the arc.

Game tied.

The Hawks must race the ball up the length of the court with no timeouts and 9.9 seconds left on the clock: 

Watch the play again. How does Josh Smith get free for the follow?

Ask Rashard Lewis.

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If you take a closer look at what transpired during this sequence, you should be able to see is that: 

the Orlando player who was most responsible for allowing Josh Smith to go unchecked during the rebounding phase of this defensive possession was actually Dwight Howard.

i.e. When Joe Johnson stopped his drive towards the basket and, instead, pulled up for his running jump-shot, from the Left Short Corner, it was Dwight Howard’s responsibility to:

I. Recover back to the weak side of the floor [i.e. where the majority of rebounds are directed];

and,

II. Box out, either:

A. Josh Smith [which would have alllowed Rashard Lewis to concentrate on boxing out Mario West, exclusively];

or,

B. Mario West [which would have allowed Rashard Lewis to concentrate on boxing out Josh Smith, exclusively];

… instead of trying, in vein, to box out both Josh Smith and Mario West.

Unfortunately for Orlando, Dwight Howard did neither of these 2 things.

Holding specific basketball players accountable for their individual failures at the defensive end of the floor, or in terms of executing their defensive rebounding assignments properly, can be tricky business, even for the very best of bloggers.

While it might be true that Darko Milicic is properly described as being a great many different things … including, possibly, the biggest bust in the last 10 years of the NBA Draft … it should also be duly noted that he is clearly not one of these, as well:

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For lack of a few crucial stops, Wolves lose 13th straight

Though the Wolves have won only one game since the 7-foot Serbian arrived in mid-February, Rambis said he has seen flashes of a player so promising seven years ago, when he was drafted ahead of [Chris] Bosh, Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade.

“And I think he can be a lot better,” Rambis said. “As he gets in better shape and gets more comfortable and more confident, you’ll see him stretch his game.”

In fact, he’s already done that offensively. Milicic scored a season-high 16 points against the Lakers last Friday, and appeared to be more confident about taking good shots.

“The guys are learning how to use him,” Rambis said. “I’ve told him, whenever he’s comfortable, I’m OK with him shooting inside, outside, [from the] elbow, long distance. But he has to have the confidence to do that.”

For Milicic, who is still only 24 years old despite being a seven-year NBA veteran, it’s a matter of playing the way he was taught back in Serbia.

“I’m just trying to relax. I got used to playing this American way of running crazy, playing too fast. I’ve got to slow it down,” Milicic said. “When I came [to the U.S.], I stopped playing basketball the way I know how to play. Playing too fast, running like chickens without heads.”

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If he can successfully return to the roots of his “multi-headed” individual game … by learning how to slow down and play within the confines of the Triangle Offense, let’s say, with Ricky Rubio/PG, at the helm, beside Al Jefferson/PF, Kevin Love/PF, Corey Brewer/OG-SF and the T-wolves upcoming 2010 Lottery Selection …

Is there really any good reason to believe that Darko Milicic, at the still relatively tender age of 24, 

is somehow incapable of putting up “15 and 8″, on a game-to-game basis …

against the other “25 and under” starting calibre Centers, in the NBA today

EASTERN CONFERENCE		WESTERN CONFERENCE
ATLANTIC		NORTHWEST
Boston	Perkins, K [25]	Denver	Petro, J [24]
Toronto	Bargnani, A [24]	Utah	Fesenko, K [23]
New York	–	Oklahoma City	Ibaka, S [20]
Philadelphia	Speights, M [22]	Portland	Oden, G [21]
New Jersey	Lopez, B [21]	Minnesota	Milicic, D [24]
CENTRAL		PACIFIC
Cleveland	–	LA Lakers	Bynum, A [22]
Milwaukee	Bogut, A [25]	Phoenix	Lopez, R [21]
Chicago	Noah, J [25]	LA Clippers	Jordan, D [21]
Indiana	Hibbert, R [23]	Sacramento	Hawes, S [21]
Detroit	–	Golden State	Biedrins, A [23]
SOUTHEAST		SOUTHWEST
Orlando	Howard, D [24]	Dallas	–
Atlanta	Horford, A [24]	San Antonio	–
Miami	–	Memphis	Gasol, M [25]
Charlotte	–	Houston	–
Washington	Blatche, A [25]	New Orleans	–

… over the course of the next several seasons?

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In what group would you place Darko Milicic amongst the other "25 and under" starting calibre Centers in the NBA today?

• 1-5
• 6-10
• 11-15
• 16-21

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Mickey Dees and The Legend strike, once more …

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