khandor’s sports blog

RAPTORS

Adv

HEAT

RATIONALE

STARTERS

Jack, PG

=

Alston, PG

Both are solid veterans who should be able to use their savvy to keep the other in-check in a match-up like this.

Belinelli, OG

Wade, OG

Wade is an All-League superstar. The Heat will win tonight, if he performs like one.

Turkoglu, SF

ß

Richardson, SF

Turkoglu will need to be the better player, if the Raptors are going to win. Q-Rich just needs to play solid D, to give the Heat a fighting chance.

Bosh, SF

ß

O’Neal, C

Bosh is the better player, at this stage of their respective careers.

Bargnani, C

=

Beasley, PF

In all likelihood, whoever wins this specific match-up will determine the outcome of this game. Beasley can effectively check Bargnani. Can Bargnani check Beasley, in return?

KEY SUBS

Calderon, PG

ß

Chalmers, PG

El Matador SHOULD be the better player. If he is not, the Raptors will be at a major disadvantage and will probably lose this game.

Weems, OG

=

Wright, G-F

Both are now better players than many casual fans realize. Belinelli’s game is all offense; Wright is better at defense and rebounding.

Wright, SF

=

Jones, F

The more PT Wright gets, the more likely TOR is to lose. Don’t expect Jones to play at all.

Johnson, PF

=

Haslem, PF

Johnson’s overall “energy” vs Haslem’s defense, rebounding, grit & savvy. A good individual match-up. Haslem needs to win this match-up to ease the load on Wade.

Nesterovic, C

=

Anthony, PF-C

Nesterovic is a solid vet; but, Anthony can be an effective rebounder/defender/shot-blocker, in his own right.

RESERVES

Banks, PG

Arroyo, PG

Neither is going to have a major impact on the outcome.

O’Bryant, C

à

Magloire, C

Although Magloire is the better player, neither should have much effect on the outcome.

COACH

Jay Traino

à

Erik Spoelstra

Although Triano is beginning to find his way better recently, Spoelstra is already one of the better young coaches in the NBA today, having apprenticed under a mastercraftsman. If Spoelstra slips up, Triano is good enough to get the W.

QIR/QR

#25/69

#11/38

TOR = 18^th/PDR, 26^th/PAR, 25^rd/RDR; Mia = 14^th/PDR, 9^th/PAR; 15^th/RDR.

Home

Yes

ß

No

TOR Home = 15-6; Mia Away = 10-10

EXPECTED RESULT
This could go either way and should only be decided in the final minute.  Covering the final number [-3/-105, which is shrinking, btw] might be a difficult proposition for the Raptors.

Legend: QIR – Quality Index Ranking [No. 1-30]; QR – Quality Rating [PDR + PAR + RDR]; PDR – Points Differential Ranking; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking.