khandor’s sports blog

Despite signing Ty Corbin to a new contract extension … which may not have been a particularly sound move for Kevin O’Connor/GM to make, at this specific time, given his relative inexperience as a head coach, at any level of the game … the Utah Jazz will need to find a “quick fix” to what’s been ailing their team for a good while now, if they are going to stay in the chase for a lower-tier playoff position in the Western Conference for the balance of the season.

Based on what was on display during their most recent home-court loss …

Boston Celtics 107
UTAH JAZZ 102
Complete Game Summary

which was, in fact, a highly winnable game, if Coach Corbin would simply have stuck with Gordon Hayward, at the OG position – working against Ray Allen – coming down-the-stretch, instead of going back to Raja Bell, his established veteran:

Full Play-By-Play 

something which, unfortunately, occurred at the 5:03 mark of the 4th quarter, with the Jazz ahead by 1 point [90-89], then …

the only changes [i.e. marked below in Red] required for this version of the Jazz to regain their “Team Mojo” look like this:

If Coach Corbin actually implements these select rotational adjustments in time for this evening’s contest against Denver, then, it should not come as a surprise at all to see the Jazz put a sudden halt to the Nuggets recent run of good performances, in the aftermath of their trade involving Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, et al.

PS. Conversely, if Coach Corbin is not yet able to see the need for these specific manoeuvres and makes the basic mistake of sticking with Mr. Bell, in his present starter’s role, then, the Jazz will have made another error, by giving him this contract extension, prematurely, and should not be expected to make any serious move up the standings in the Western Conference. 

This corner of the blogosphere has been saying for at least the last 2+ years that Deron Williams is, in fact, a better PG than the Annointed One, Chris Paul …  

However, despite the affection which exists here for the members of the TNT Crew, please let it still be known, to one and all, that there is also a VERY BIG difference between making a comparative statement like that, and subsequently christening D-Will as the No. 1 PG, overall, in the entire NBA today … whilest other top dogs, like:

Chauncey Billups
Steve Nash
Tony Parker, and
Jason Kidd

are still running, at near full-throttle, in the pound, and other still-as-yet wet-behind-the-ears young bucks, like:

Rajon Rondo
Devin Harris
Russell Westbrook
Derrick Rose
Rodney Stuckey
Monta Ellis
Tyreke Evans, and
Brandon Jennings

are just beginning to prowl.

Indeed, in the grand history of the game, you might not be able to identify any other era during which quite THIS many [and potentially even more than just the 14 names listed here] very-good-to-perhaps-great Point Guards roamed the floors of the NBA, all at once, on an every day basis.

Finally … a stats guru speaks who is at least on the right track.

How stats apply to individual match-ups for elite level NBA coaches
WW: Tracy McGrady is a player who has never helped his team as much as people thought. Allen Iverson — for one or two years he was really good.

The best player of the decade, though, I’d say, was Kevin Garnett. We have a rating over the last eight or nine years, and Garnett comes out number one. And I think everybody else [other stat experts] has that too, so that’s nice.

Although I don’t like Garnett. When I watch on TV, he’s turning too edgy. Chippy attitude.

Another guy who is totally overrated is Amare Stoudemire. I mean, he’s a stat stuffer. Troy Murphy gets great stats, but never does much for the team.

(UPDATE: Winston amends this statement: “With Golden State Troy Murphy was a stat stuffer who did little to help the team but with Indiana the last two years he has improved to where he is an above average NBA player.”)

There’s a bunch of guys like that.

Andre Iguodala, though. Whenever he’s on the court for Philadelphia, they’re great. Whenever he’s off, they suck. God knows why he’s a good player. I watch him play, and I don’t know. (More on Iguodala.)

Jason Kidd is a little like that, but you can see why he makes guys better. But not Iguodala.

HA: Sometimes I feel like I can see Kidd’s greatness, but other times, at this stage of his career, I can’t. 

WW: Kidd can’t guard a fast guard. They go right by him like he’s standing still. They always did. Against Chris Paul … Jason Kidd might as well be standing still on defense.

But the interesting thing: Devin Harris can nail Tony Parker. But Steve Nash can beat Devin Harris. But Parker can beat Nash.

It’s not transitive. We can show that. That’s really interesting. That shouldn’t be. But it is. There are probably a lot of other things like that.

If coaches see other examples of things like that, we can back them up with data. Del Harris really got to like us, I think, because a lot of times our numbers confirmed what he thought. It’s hard to argue with the numbers when you’ve got a full amount of data on it.

Last year [Maverick assistant] Terry Stotts did a really great job asking us questions. Before the Spurs series, they asked us about Antoine Wright.  He’s not on the team anymore, thank god. OK, he had a bad rating in our system. But the fascinating thing was, when he played small forward, he was good. When he played shooting guard, he was terrible. So we can break that down. I can find every combination where he was small forward and he was good. Every combination where he was shooting guard he was terrible. 

Against the Spurs, they used him as a small forward and he was great. Every time he played for Howard at small forward, they killed the Spurs.

Things like this … I needed the coach to ask me the question because I would have never thought of it. You don’t just throw the numbers at the coach, because, I mean, 500,000 numbers! But if the coach understands what he’s doing, and says “I think Antoine Wright can play small forward can you tell me if that’s true?” That’s how you use the stuff.

———————————

THIS is the direction in which basketball analysis NEEDS to go.

Sincere thanks to you … Wayne Winston!

PS. It’s the job of an elite level basketball coach to answer correctly the questions which Wayne Winston doesn’t happen to have the specific training, knowledge base and experience to discern properly on his own … e.g. What really makes Andre Iguodala as good as he is given what the “average” stats/numbers have to say about his level of play?  Those who can DO THAT are the ones with the type of Basketball Analysis/Acumen you SHOULD BE listening to in order to better understand, How The NBA Game Actually Works, Based On Individual Match-ups.

PPS. Class for NBA 101 is now finished for today … or, in fact, for some of you, at least, it may just be starting … from scratch.

PPPS. Btw … What Wayne Winston had to say in this piece about there being no distinction necessary between the use of players like Brandon Bass [#4/PF] and Dirk Nowitzki [#5/C], on the court together, regardless of their position, and the effect/thinking of Mike D’Antoni, just happens to be wrong.

When you first heard the news that New Jersey had agreed to trade Vince Carter [SF-OG] and Ryan Anderson [PF] to Orlando … in exchange for 3 pretty good but not great players, i.e. Courtney Lee [OG], Rafer Alston [PG], Tony Battie [PF-C] … did the thought occur to you that the Nets’ managerial tandem of Rod Thorn & Kiki Vandeweghe MUST know something that just isn’t common knowledge, yet? Or, perhaps, have an Ace of sorts, hidden up their collective sleeve?

As has been mentioned in this space before …

Yours truly has a great deal of confidence in the ability of specific GM’s across the NBA to assess with a fairly high degree of accuracy the talent level of elite players in this league: 

NJ Nets rookie takes over: Terrence Williams may be the Next Big Thing
Terrence Williams — for reasons that elude logic — looks like the Nets’ best player two weeks before camp opens.

Nobody wants to say this aloud for print, but they’ll go this far:

“He’s playing really well – a freak of nature athletically,” Keyon Dooling said yesterday. “In the moments I’ve watched, he’s really unique. What you don’t see from the great athletes is a high basketball IQ. But he has a nice floor game – a really nice floor game.”

Then there’s this from Mr. Reticence: “He’s really good. I worked with him some, watched him some, and I’m very impressed,” L-Frank said.

Both sounded as though they were looking over their shoulders, waiting for someone to jam a towel down their throats. Nobody wants to christen any rookie as The Next Big Thing, but everyone else we spoke to claims that T-Will the Thrill has absolutely torn up the gym.

Frank downshifted into omigod-let’s-douse-that-now speech:

“Winning the pickup game award isn’t necessarily a guarantee of success – Rodney Buford won it,” the coach said. “I think Terrence will be a very good player, but it’s early to make an evaluation. The guys like playing with him, because he’s a willing and capable passer – that’s human nature. But many young guys try to establish themselves by scoring; Terrence just makes the right plays and delivers the ball in the right position, which ingratiates you with teammates.”

———————————————

one of which happens to reside in New Jersey.

Does that mean these management teams never ever make a serious mistake when acquiring or releasing players for their franchise?

No, it does not.

What it does mean, though, is that … the individuals in charge of those specific organizations know exactly what it takes to put a solid team on the floor, and succeed in doing just that, on a consistent basis, without ever attempting to pull the wool over their fans eyes, regarding the realistic prospects for their team, in a given season … while always keeping a steady eye towards the gradual process involved with building a championship calibre team.

Those who think the following roster of players is going to be atrocious this season:

are making a serious in judgment … even if the Nets do happen to miss the playoffs, again.

There’s a definite plan in place with this franchise, as far as their player personnel is concerned, which now includes future stalwarts at four of the following five positions:

PG – Devin Harris
OG – Courtney Lee
SF – Terrence Williams
PF – ?
C – Brook Lopez 

It says here that Brook Lopez [C] will develop into one of the best Centers in the NBA during the next few seasons, at the heart of their line-up … with a solid core of talented athletic players around him … like D-Harris, C-Lee, CDR [?] and T-Will-The-Thrill, at their respective positions … to form a group that is going to be able to Rebound, Defend and Share the Ball, as a good team should.

FINAL SCORE: Raptors 107, Nets 106
Game Info

As was indicated in this space yesterday …

* This game had the makings of a hum-dinger
* If the Raptors were going to win, Jermaine O’Neal would need to substantially out-perform Josh Boone

… both of which happened last night.

Specific aspects of this game which produced a much needed victory for the Raptors, included:

* The production at the Point Guard position from the tandem of Jose Calderon + Anthony Parker, in comparison with Devin Harris & Keyon Dooling [see the Box Score], which allowed the Raptors to keep pace with the Nets throughout the game

* Jay Triano’s sound decision to remove Bargnani from the game, in favour of Jermaine O’Neal, at the 7:38 mark of the 3rd quarter … AND, then, to not re-insert Bargnani back into the game until the 2:49 mark of the 4th Quarter … which improved the Raptors’ Pick & Roll/Pop Defense immeasurably for that stretch of 16:49 … AND, then, to remove Bargnani from the game, permanently, in favour of Jamario Moon, at the 2:19 mark of the 4th Quarter … which effectively eliminated the Nets ability to easily off-set Bargnani’s skill set with another serviceable BIG, like Ryan Anderson [i.e. an under-sized PF], for the bulk of the 2nd half 

* Devin Harris’ WIDE OPEN, flat out, miss from just 15 feet away, on the final possession of the game

* Harris’ inability to SEE the mis-match which was presented to him on the Nets’ final possession with Wince Carter isolated at the TOTK vs Chris Bosh

———-

In the NBA, when a game is decided on the outcome of the final possession, it is most often the case that:

* One team’s good fortune combines with the other’s bad … as these respective teams more-or-less played each other to an effective stand-off, in that specific contest

* Both teams do a solid job of responding effectively to the other’s mis-match opportunities which are created by the circumstances in this specific game and the use of each team’s personnel by their coaching staff

* The actual margin of victory hinges on just one good or bad decision by the player with the ball in his hands, at the time, and/or his ability to make the shot which is presented to him by the defense … using whichever scheme it sees fit … with the game on the line.

The Raptors and the Nets, as constructed, are two Middle-of-the-Pack teams, in the Eastern Conference, each of which is capable of playing .500 basketball this season and with very little separation between them.

Now that the Raptors [18-28] have finally discovered what their best available line-up is, tonight’s match-up vs New Jersey [20-25] fits into the category of a benchmark game for the Dinos.

If the Raptors are going to make a belated run for the 8th playoff spot in the EC, they will need to get games like this one, on the road versus one of the five teams ahead of them in the standings, i.e. Milwaukee, New Jersey, New York, Charlotte and Chicago.

Q1. Where do they have an individual match-up advantage vs New Jersey?
A1. Only in the section with the bolded letters listed above. 

If O’Neal dramatically out-performs Josh Boone, the Raptors can win this game going away.

If not … it will be the Nets that prevail in what should be a hum-dinger of a contest.

Wagering Line: NETS +2/-105

Chris Douglas-Roberts may, at last, have turned a corner in the eyes of Lawrence Frank.

After playing very little during the Nets [20-25/.444, 3rd Atlantic, 9th EC] first 43 games this season, Coach Frank has seen fit to use CDR in each of their last 2 games:

GAME 2 – Box Score; Full Play-By-Play [Loss at OKC, Jan 26]
GAME 1 – Box Score; Full Play-By-Play [Win at MEM, Jan 24]

… in most interesting ways, and with specific results.

———-

GAME 1

During his 8:06 of action, when CDR was used as a Wing player by Coach Frank:

… and these specific 5-Man Units for the Nets effectively held their ground versus the Grizzlies in the 2nd Quarter.

This is CDR’s individual stat line from this game:

GAME 2

During the final 7:57 of last night’s game vs the Thunder, when CDR [6-7, 215] was used as the Nets’ Point Guard:

… and these respective 5-Man Units, led by CDR [+21], reduced a 30-pt deficit for the Nets [58-88] to a 7-pt margin [82-89], with 1:03 left to play, at which point Scott Brooks was forced to re-insert Kevin Durant, in order to close out the game for the Thunder at the FT Line. 

This is CDR’s individual stat line from this game:

======================

One of the things which this corner of the blogosphere specializes in is Being Ahead-of-the-Pack when it comes to such things as assessing accurately the authentic abilities of various NBA players who are still largely under-the-radar, to this point in their careers.

As was mentioned in this space during the pre-season, astute NBA observers should expect CDR to have a long and highly productive career in this league, given his size, overall athleticism, skill set, versatility, competitiveness, Basketball IQ, etc..

When yours truly sees this type of observation being made repeatedly in on-line articles and commentary by traditional media sources, bloggers, and members of the Raptors’ fanbase …

——————————————–

Reasons for concern in Raptorville
The defenceless point guard

In his first year as starting point guard, Jose Calderon has kept up his efficient offensive ways, with a league-leading 4.18 assists for every turnover.

But on the other end of the floor, opposing point guards routinely light up Calderon. Tony Parker had 24 points and 10 assists against him. Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook had 19 points and eight assists. Devin Harris has torched Calderon in two decisive fourth quarters.

——————————————–

it indicates that there is still a significant level of basketball sophistication that has yet to be reached by many of the followers of this team.

The average Raptors fan has seen Jose Calderon play each and every game of his NBA career to-date; but this does NOT mean that said fan has a sound/accurate understanding of the game, in general, and how it should be played properly, concerning a player like the Raptors’ starting PG.

In reality … while Jose Calderon will never be confused for a top notch defensive player … he is far from being an atrocious defender at the PG position in the NBA.

——————————–

Specific Defensive Responsibilities of a PG for a team in the NBA

Situation #1. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. Pressure/contain the opposition’s PG, 1-on-1.

Situation #2. In a half-court situation when there is a Pick being set on him. Direct the opposition’s PG toward the Picker – in conjunction with the Picker’s defender – and then recover [by going either under or over, depending on the specific defensive tactic being used] to defend the PG on the dribble.

Situation #3. In a transition situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To contain the opposition’s PG on the dribble, 1-on-1.

Situation #4. In a transition situation when there is a Pick being set on him. To contain the opposition’s PG on the dribble, in conjunction with the Picker’s defender.

Situation #5. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To switch defensive responsibilities with a teammate who has the task of defending against an opposition player who plays a different position and is, therefore, usually a bigger player. 

Situation #6. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To initiate defensive double-teams and traps against opponent players who are very skilful at scoring either in the Low Post or on drives from the perimeter into the lane.

Situation #7. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him.  To rotate appropriately in order to provide the necessary help for a teammate who has been beaten on a dribble penetration move by an opponent.

Situation #8. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To rotate appropriately in order to provide the necessary help for a teammate who has had to rotate to assist a teammate that has been beaten on a dribble penetration move by an opponent, i.e. Help-the-helper.

Situation #9. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To close-out appropriately versus an opponent shooter, contesting the shot and containing that player on the dribble.

——————————–

When Jose Calderon is injury-free, the vast majority of his individual defensive breakdowns occur in Situation #2, as a result of a Big-on-Little Pick, where the main culprit isn’t actually Calderon at all but the Raptors’ Big involved in defending this specific action.

If Andrea Bargnani [who is the worst offender], Jermaine O’Neal [who is the 2nd worst offender], Chris Bosh [who is fairly good at this] and Kris Humphries [who is the most proficient at this], as a group, do a poor job defensively when:

i. Switching
ii. Showing & Recovering, or
iii. Trapping

in a 5/4-on-1 Pick scenario … and the opponent’s PG is able to dribble penetrate into the heart of the Raptor’s defense on a consistent basis, primarily, this is not the fault of the Dino’s PG.

When assessing Jose Calderon’s individual defense … encompassing those Nine Situational Categories … versus that provided by the other starting PGs across the League, this is what you should be able to see:

which would place him in the middle-of-the-pack, approximately, not towards the bottom. 

NBA games can change dramatically depending upon the substitutions a team makes, or not, and the combination of players it has on the court, at any point in time, versus an opponent’s specific 5-Man Unit.

Such was the case last night when the Raptors faced the Nets.

At the 05:00 mark of the 3rd Quarter, New Jersey led Toronto by a single point, 58-57, when the following series of substitutions were made for each team:

When the bleeding finally stopped for the Raptors, at the 02:44 mark of the 4th period, the Nets had established a 14-point margin that eventually proved to be insurmountable for the home team.

Closeer examination of these events reveals a number of interesting things about the mechanics of last night’s contest.

———————————————————–

After relinquishing the lead to the Raptors’ 5-Man Unit of …

Calderon-Kapono-Moon-Bargnani-Bosh,

the Nets made their first key substitution at the 03:25 mark of the 3rd Q, when they replaced Harris/PG & Simmons/SF with Dooling and Hassell, respectively, although they were trailing by 4 points [60-64], at the time.

What this substitution did was change The End of the 3rd Quarter/Beginning of the 4th Quarter Match-ups for each of the teams at the PG position.

Despite playing without their starting PG, the Nets were able to stay within striking distance of the Raptors, while buying valuable rest time for Harris to begin the 4th Quarter versus Ukic, the back-up PG for the Raptors.

Conversely, the Raptors made their first key substitution at the 02:32 of the 3rd Quarter when they replaced Kapono/OG and Bosh/C with Parker & Graham, respectively, while leading the Nets by 6 points, 60-66.

What this substitution did was create a most unusual line-up for Toronto that has rarely, if ever, seen the court this season [either under Sam Mitchell or Jay Triano]:

Calderon-Parker-Moon-Graham-Bargnani

It was this unit which failed to open up a wider working margin for the Raptors versus the Nets, playing without Harris.

Then, at the 3rd Quarter interval, was when both teams made their second set of key substitutions:

New Jersey … used Harris & Dooling together, in conjunction with Lopez, Anderson & Hassell; while resting Carter.

Toronto … replaced Calderon with Ukic, and kept their other four players [who finished the 3rd Quarter] on the court.

What these two sets of subs did was:

1. Prevent the Raptors from establishing a wider working margin over the Nets, while New Jersey was buying rest time for Carter;

2. Establish Harris [who scored the first 5 points of the quarter playing versus the Raptors' back-up PG] as the Offensive Focus for the Nets during this segment of the game.

The third key substitution for the Nets was made at the 06:21 mark of the 4th Quarter when they replaced Dooling/OG with Carter, who was rested for the stretch run, after the Nets had already regained the lead from the Raptors, primarily, on the back of Harris and Lopez.

The third key susbstitution for the Raptors was made at the 05:39 mark of the 4th Quarter when they replaced Moon/SF & O’Neal/C with Graham/SF & Bargnani/PF, respectively, shifted Bosh to the Center position, in conjunction with Calderon and Kapono [who played all 12 minutes of the 4th Quarter]. 

It was this line-up that was outscored 10-2 by the Nets between the 05:39 and 03:26 marks of the 4th Quarter, which allowed New Jersey to establish a 10 point lead on the Raptors, 84-74.

The fourth key substitution for the Raptors was at the 03:26 mark of the 4th Quarter when Toronto replaced Bargnani/PF & Graham/SF with O’Neal & Moon, respectively, after which the Nets increased their lead to 14 points, 88-74.

In fact, it was during these two specific segments of the game that the following  16 Key Possession Outcomes occurred and determined the eventual Winner/Loser of this match-up:

i.e. New Jersey converted 6 of their 8 Possessions [75.0%] into 14 points; while Toronto converted only 1 of their 8 Possessions [12.5 %] into 2 points. 

Of particular interest to this corner are the following facts:

* The Raptors LOST the Battle of the Boards last night, 38 to 54. 

* During these 8 Possessions the Raptors’ output consisted of:

• 2 Missed J3′s by Kapono
  2 Missed Layup/Tap-in Attempts by Bosh
  2 Turnovers by Calderon
  1 Set of 2 Missed FT’s by O’Neal
  1 Set of 2 Made FT’s by Calderon

* During these two key segments of the game, the Raptors chose to ignore the line-up they used last week versus the Pacers to close out their first victory under Jay Triano, i.e. Calderon-Moon-Graham-Bosh-O’Neal, that is by far the best REBOUNDING & Team Defense 5-Man Unit which Toronto can put on the floor.

———————————————————–

In general …

How a team uses its substitutes, at important moments within a specific NBA game, can be a crucial factor toward determining the eventual Winner/Loser of that contest.

Such was the case last night, at the ACC, when the Raptors forgot just how vital REBOUNDING & Team Defense are … especially, during the 4th Quarter of a close game, in this league, versus a dangerous opponent.

Given the strengths and weaknesses of his current Player Roster, the Little General is once again proving to astute NBA observers that he is a solid NBA coach … 

Dribble Drive Motion Offense in the Swamp

who knows exactly what he’s doing, when it comes to making sound adjustments with his team that maximize his players’ skills & abilities.

Focusing the Nets’ offensive system on the penetrating abilities of Devin Harris, Wince Carter, Keyon Dooling and CDR, without a dominant LOW POST-scorer anywhere in sight, and with a plethora of mobile, athletic youngish Bigs, who have an array of offensive (and defensive) talents … is a sound coaching move by Lawrence Frank.

Looking at the Nets’ 2008-2009 roster … there are any number of intriguing options/combinations when you take a young Big Man, like Brook Lopez (Boone-J & Williams-S), shift him to the WEAK SIDE block, and then surround him with a combination of Guard & Forwards who can either take it to the rack, shoot the ball, or both (Harris-D, Carter-V, Dooling-K, Hassell-T, Najera-E, Simmons-B, CDR, Hayes-J., Swift-S, Anderson-R, and Jianlian-Y).

Unlike other NBA observers …

Summer Forecast: Which way is the East going?
Summer Forecast: Which way is the West going?
NBA off-season rankings – v3.0
NBA power rankings: Celtics no surprise as preseason No. 1

this corner DOES NOT project New Jersey to finish at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings this season.

Rod Thorn, Kiki Vandeweghe and Lawrence Frank … are too good at what they do to let that happen.