khandor’s sports blog

Welcome back NBA.

As was mentioned in this space on Monday …

The adjustments which Miami needed to make in order to win their series with Chicago included:

1. Giving increased playing time to [A] Mike Miller/SF, [B] Zydrunas Ilgauskas/C, [C] Eddie House/OG and [D] Udonis Haslem/PF];

2. Reducing the playing time of [A] Mike Bibby [PG] and [B] Jamaal Magloire [C]; and,

3. Having Dwayne Wade [OG] check Derrick Rose [PG].

Given the result of last night’s Game 2, it is now fair to say that a main reason this series is tied, 1-1, is because Erik Spoelstra [Head Coach] actually implemented several of the “strategic” adjustments which were recommend, in advance, right here.

For example:

#3) For significant stretches of the 4th quarter, Miami used the following 5-man unit with the associated Individual Match-ups:

PG, Dwayne Wade [vs D-Rose]
OG, Mike Miller [vs Keith Bogans or Kyle Korver]
SF, LeBron James [vs Luol Deng or Ronnie Brewer]
PF, Udonis Haslem [vs Carlos Boozer or Taj Gibson] 
C, Chris Bosh [vs Joakim Noah or Omer Asik]

#2.B) Jamaal Magloire was used for only 5 minutes.

#1.A) Mike Miller was used for 18 minutes.

#1.D) Udonis Haslem was used for 23 minutes.

If Coach Spoelstra wants to ensure that the Heat will win this series … by an ever-widening margin, then … all he really needs to do is implement the remaining “strategic” adjustments which were listed here on Monday that he chose to disregard in Game 2, i.e. 2.A, 1.B, and 1.C.

————————————————————————-

PS. Last night, actually Coach Spoestra did a solid job of earning his salary. Unfortunately, the same thing cannot be said for Coach Thibodeau … especially, when he fell asleep at the switch, and was much too slow in substituting Ronnie Brewer back into the game, in the latter stages of the 4th quarter, after Coach Spoelstra showed that he was going to milk the “3-1 Pick-and-Pop” – with LeBron James as Miami’s primary ball-handler, since Kyle Korver/OG was still in the game and being used to check Mike Bibby/PG

PPS. BTW … For those who still believe that Chris Bosh is incapable of playing Center for a title-winning team in the NBA, last night’s game serves as Exhibit A for how exactly this young man can best be used by an organization that is being run by a GM who really does know what he is doing when it comes to being able to win it all.

At the end of the 2008-2009 regular season, the main pieces for the Raptors and the Bulls, respectively, looked like this:

Toronto at Chicago [April 15, 2009]

When you then look at the main pieces for these same two teams when they played each other at the end of the 2009-2010 regular season, what you see is the following:

Chicago at Toronto [April 11, 2010]

When you then look at the main pieces for these same two teams when they played each other at the end of the just completed regular season, what you see is the following:

Toronto at Chicago [April 2, 2011]

Key differences and similarities?

1. Lead Executives, at the time:

2008-2009
CHICAGO, John Paxson
TORONTO, Bryan Colangelo and Maurizio Gherardini

2009-2010
CHICAGO, John Paxson and Gar Forman
TORONTO, Bryan Colangelo and Maurizio Gherardini

2010-2011
CHICAGO, John Paxson and Gar Forman
TORONTO, Bryan Colangelo and Maurizio Gherardini

2. Head Coaches, at the time:

2008-2009
CHICAGO, Vinnie Del Negro
TORONTO, Jay Triano

2009-2010
CHICAGO, Vinnie Del Negro
TORONTO, Jay Triano

2010-2011
CHICAGO, Tom Thibodeau
TORONTO, Jay Triano

3. Key Players, at the time:

2008-2009
CHICAGO
Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng [DNP-injury], Ben Gordon, John Salmons, Tyrus Thomas, Kirk Hinrich, Brad Miller and Tim Thomas

TORONTO
Chris Bosh, Shawn Marion, Jose Calderon, Anthony Parker and Andrea Bargnani [DNP-injury]

2009-2010
CHICAGO
Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Kirk Hinrich and Brad Miller

TORONTO
Chris Bosh [DNP-injury], Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani, Hedo Turkoglu, Amir Johnson, Sonny Weems, DeMar DeRozan and Reggie Evans

2010-2011
CHICAGO
Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Carlos Boozer, CJ Watson, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, Kurt Thomas, Omir Asik and Rasual Butler

TORONTO
Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani, DeMar DeRozan, Amir Johnson, Ed Davis, Jerryd Bayless, James Johnson, Leandro Barbosa, Sonny Weems, Linas Kleiza and Reggie Evans

4. Won-Loss Records, at the time

2008-2009
CHICAGO, 41-41
TORONTO, 33-49

2009-2010
CHICAGO, 39-41 [similar]
TORONTO, 38-42 [slightly better]

2010-2011
CHICAGO, 56-20 [significantly better]
TORONTO, 20-55 [significantly worse]

Since their introduction to the NBA, 16 years ago, what the Toronto Raptors have displayed is: [1] A remarkable inability to hold onto their “best” players from previous seasons who have solid upside and were actually selected by the team in the annual Draft; and, [2] A disturbing penchant for selecting the “wrong” players in the annual Draft who have limited upside and then remain fixtures with the team for far too many years without becoming very productive overall … unlike the Chicago Bulls.

Until the Raptors properly address the deficiencies which exist for their franchise at the Executive level, the Head Coach level, and the Marquee Player level, what position they select in any given NBA Draft Lottery is quite immaterial … if the long term goal is eventually being able to win a League Championship.

It is simply astounding that a nonsensical perspective like this one:

—————————————————–

Vote Derrick Rose for love of the game

Players like Derrick Rose should be rewarded.

So, you MVP voters, if you just want to say that the Bulls are the best team in the NBA, and you love Derrick Rose and that’s that, I’m cool with it. Vote for the dude. To me, that’s a good enough rationale.

However, one little thing: Do not tell me that the reason you’re voting for him is because without him the Bulls would be a disaster.

That’s misguided and insulting. It’s a little insulting to Dwight Howard, who is the only candidate if that’s the rationale. (Even James is a stronger candidate by this measure.)

But mainly, it’s entirely insulting to everyone else who works for the Bulls.

The Bulls are a hot story today because they manhandled the Boston Celtics last night and are on track to finish at the top of the East. They didn’t beat the Celtics, though, because of Rose’s memorable pull-up 3s off the dribble. (Monta Ellis can do that too, and it doesn’t lead to all that many wins.)

They beat them because Paul Pierce and Ray Allen could barely get a shot off. The Celtics’ big four finished 15-of-43, and it’s not like they were missing bunnies.

Steals, shot-clock violations, fumbled passes, broken plays. The Celtics’ offense, last night, was complete and total mush — 38 percent from the floor — and that was no accident. That’s why they lost, and that’s not some gift Derrick Rose gave the Bulls.

That was because the Bulls knew exactly what to do. They do it to everybody. Tom Thibodeau took the ideas and direction that once made Boston the NBA’s best defense, and, against long odds, transported them to a new roster, where the players have bought in, in no small part because of Rose.

Defense is half the game, and at that, Thibodeau, is a wrecking crew.

—————————————————–

concerning the specific role which Derrick Rose has played this season for the Chicago Bulls …

should receive such widespread attention.

In review:

- The Chicago Bulls are the best team in the East, so far, this season. [Yes]

- Derrick Rose is the best player on the Bulls this season. [Yes]

- The Bulls have several other good-to-very-good players on their current roster. [Yes]

- The Bulls have the best Defensive team in the East this season. [Yes]

- Tom Thibodeau is a terrific defensive coach who has proved his mettle with the Bulls and the Boston Celtics [former Assistant Coach]. [Yes]

- The play of Derrick Rose has, somehow, NOT contributed to the Bulls’ top-rated Defensive performance this season. [Are you kidding?]

Hmmm …

As of Sat-Apr-09-2011, the IPR for Derrick Rose, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard looks like this:

1. LeBron James, +31.48

2. Dwight Howard, +28.39

3. Derrick Rose, +27.44

IPR = Individual Player Rating [i.e. kPER + TWLC]
kPER = Pts – [FGA-FGM] – [FTA-FTM] + Reb + Ast + St + Bl – TO – PF]/GP
TWLC = MPG/240 * [Team Wins - Team Losses]

The fact is:

- Statistically, LeBron James [SF, Miami Heat] has made the greatest contribution to the performance of his team this season, in comparison with the contributions of Dwight Howard [C, Orlando Magic] and Derrick Rose [PG, Chicago Bulls]

- Statistical production, in isolation, is not an accurate reflection of a single player’s contribution to the performance of his team in a given season.

When you examine each of the following rosters:

		Miami Heat		Orlando Magic		Chicago Bulls
STARTERS
1	PG	Mike Bibby	PG	Jameer Nelson *	PG	???
2	OG	Dwyane Wade *	OG	Jason Richardson *	OG	Keith Bogans
3	SF	???	SF	Hedo Turkoglu *	SF	Luol Deng
4	PF	Chris Bosh *	PG	Brandon Bass	PF	Carlos Boozer *
5	C	Zydrunas Ilgauskas	C	???	C	Joakim Noah
KEY SUBS
6	PG	Mario Chalmers	PG	Gilbert Arenas	PG	CJ Watson
7	OG	James Jones	OG	JJ Redick	OG	Kyle Korver
8	SF	Mike Miller	SF	Quentin Richardson	SF	Ronnie Brewer
9	PF	Joel Anthony	PF-C	Ryan Anderson	PF	Taj Gibson
10	C	Erick Dampier	PF-C	Earl Clark/Malik Allen	C	Kirk Thomas
RESERVES
11	OG-PG	Eddie House	PG	Chris Duhon	OG	Rasual Butler
12	PF	Juwon Howard	PF-C	Malik Allen/Earl Clark	C	Omer Asik
EXTRAS/OUTS
13	PF	Udonis Haslem	C	Daniel Orton	PG	John Lucas III
14	C	Dexter Pittman			PG	Jannero Pargo
15	C	Jamaal Magloire			PF-C	Brian Scalabrine
LEGEND: * - High end player who is capable of stepping up to carry the load for his team, in the absence of Player ???.

and consider:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1 Chicago Bulls, 59-20/.747

2-3 Miami Heat, 55-24/.696

4 Orlando Magic, 50-29/.633

A. Where each team will finish in the League Standings;

B. The games missed this season by Carlos Boozer [23] and Joakim Noah [34];

and,

C. Which OTHER players on each roster have the capacity to step up to replace the “contribution” made to their team this season by LeBron James, Dwight Howard, and Derrick Rose, should they each have been removed from their respective rosters this year, then, it is fairly clear-cut who should be named the Most “Valuable” Player for 2010-2011.

——————————————————

Instead of wasting time and energy saying that Derrick Rose should not get the NBA’s MVP Award this season because of the outstanding work done by Tom Thibodeau and Gar Forman [and John Paxson], or because his simple game stats have been surpassed by LeBron James and Dwight Howard …

The Main Reason Derrick Rose SHOULD win the NBA’s MVP Award this season

- Without the way Derrick Rose has played, this version of the Bulls would, in all likelihood, have finished somewhere in the middle-of-the-pack in the East.

- However, with the way Derrick Rose has played, the Bulls are going to finish as the No. 1 team in the East.

The Main Reason Tom Thibodeau SHOULD win the NBA’s COTY Award this season

- Without the way Tom Thibodeau has coached, this version of the Bulls would, in all likelihood, have finished somewhere in the middle-of-the-pack in the East.

- However, with the way Tom Thibodeau has coached, the Bulls are going to finish as the No. 1 team in the East.

The Main Reason Gar Forman [and John Paxson] SHOULD win the NBA’s EOTY Award this season

- Without the way Gar Forman has GMed, this version of the Bulls would, in all likelihood, have finished somewhere in the middle-of-the-pack in the East.

- However, with the way Gar Forman has GMed, the Bulls are going to finish as the No. 1 team in the East.

Unfortunately …

The on-line hoops community today is strife with the sort of non-basketball ‘pseudo basketball analysis’ that does not really succeed in advancing a better understanding of how the game is actually played best, in the NBA. 

To wit:

——————————————————————

Exhibit A – A Rose does not Equal Love – Revisited

How did Chicago do this?  The front office essentially followed a very good formula: keep all of the team’s good players from 2009-10 and get most of the good players from Utah. This formula has produced a very good team. 

Unfortunately in the NBA, all of the regular season awards are individual based. This means Derrick Rose will get the credit for what was essentially a team effort. While it is worth virtually nothing, I would like to award the Chicago Bulls with the Most Valuable Team award this season and reiterate that Rose is not the MVP.

One last note…

Some might argue that Chicago’s players are essentially “not bad” because of Rose and/or Coach Thibodeau.  But if we look at the productivity of these players this season and what these veterans did in 2009-10, we see that this team’s results are not surprising.  As the following table indicates (numbers from NerdNumbers), most players on this team are offering essentially the same production seen last year. 

The primary exceptions – Derrick Rose, Ronnie Brewer, and Carlos Boozer – are easy to explain. 

• Rose is young, and young players get better.
• Brewer is essentially offering what he did prior to 2009-10
• And Boozer – who has been hurt – is offering less this year

In sum, we don’t need to argue that this team is succeeding because of its dynamic point guard or amazing coach.  The Bulls story is really about choosing productive players.  And the Bulls – as the study into “bad” players indicates – have been very good at making these choices.    

——————————————————————

The Chicago Bulls are not being propelled to 1st place in the Eastern Conference standings this season because they have the most non-bad basketball players on their roster, in comparison with the other teams in the league.

re: Rose is young, and young players get better.

Do ALL young players get better, according to a simplistic metric like WP?

If not, then, it is simply fallacious to assert that THIS is THE reason for the improvement which Derrick Rose has shown THIS season.

re: Brewer is essentially offering what he did prior to 2009-10

Did the Utah Jazz teams that Ronnie Brewer played for prior to THIS season reach the heights that THIS season’s Chicago Bulls are approaching?

If not, then, it is simply fallacious to assert that THIS is THE reason the Bulls, with Ronnie Brewer on-board, are playing outstanding basketball THIS season.

re: And Boozer – who has been hurt – is offering less this year

It is simply fallacious to assert that THE reason the Bulls are playing outstanding basketball THIS season is because they have kept ALL of their “good” players from last season AND added most of the “good” players from the Jazz – i.e. Boozer, Brewer and Korver – while, SIMULTANEOUSLY, characterizing one of those three key players as, essentially, providing LESS production THIS season than he did last year for Utah.

The fact is …

Part I

This is what the Bulls’ rotation was last season when they were eliminated from the 1st Round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs, in Game 5, by the Cleveland Cavaliers:

STARTERS
Rose [PG] + Hinrich [OG] + Deng [SF] + Gibson [PF] + Noah [C]

KEY SUBS
Murray [PG/OG], Warrick [SF/PF] and Miller [C]

HEAD COACH
Vinnie Del Negro

In comparison, this is what the Bulls’ rotation was two nights ago, when they dismantled Kevin Love’s Minnesota Timberwolves:

STARTERS
Rose [PG] + Bogans [OG] + Deng [SF] + Boozer [PF] + Thomas [C]

KEY SUBS
Watson [PG/OG], Korver [OG, Brewer [SF], Gibson [PF] and Asik [C]

… with Joakim Noah [C], Chicago’s 2nd most valuable player sitting out this game …

HEAD COACH
Tom Thibodeau

on their way to winning Game 54 THIS season.

Part II

Keith Bogans [from Orlando] was not obtained from the Utah Jazz.

Kurt Thomas [from the scrap heap] was not obtained from the Utah Jazz.

CJ Watson [from Golden State] was not obtained from the Utah Jazz.

Omer Asik [from the Euroleague] was not obtained from the Utah Jazz.

Tom Thibodeau [from the Boston Celtics] was not obtained from the Utah Jazz.

The Team Defense, and TEAM REBOUNDING, and Team Offense, and TEAM UNITY, and Team CRUNCH TIME Performance, etc. – i.e. Ubuntu! – which the Bulls have shown, thus far, THIS season were not obtained from the Utah Jazz.

It truly makes the stomuch turn, over and over again, to read ‘pseudo basketball analysis’ that looks like THIS … which, unfortunately, proliferates the internet today and is, basically, a regurgitation of select stat categories, manipulated to achieve a desired outcome … in place of actual Basketball Analysis which is focused on Individual Match-ups, Coaching, Part and/vs Whole Team Construction, Team Chemistry/Cohesion, Skill Sets, X’s and O’s, Strategies & Tactics, etc.

=====================================

FWIW …

From the perspective of this corner:

* Derrick Rose SHOULD earn his 1st MVP Award THIS season … for THE WAY he has performed on the court WHILE becoming THE unquestioned Leader of the Chicago Bulls, who are currently in 1st Place, in the Eastern Conference; 

* Tom Thibodeau SHOULD earn his 1st COTY Award THIS season … for the fantastic TEAM ETHOS he has instilled in THIS specific collection of players on the Bulls’ roster, and the commitment this team has towards DEFENSE, REBOUNDING and SHARED TEAM OFFENSE;

and,

* The management tandem of Gar Forman + John Paxson SHOULD earn their 1st EOTY Award THIS season … for constructing a REAL TEAM, which plays the game the ‘right way’, courtesy of a series of inter-related – and absolutely terrific – personnel moves, predicated on a highly accurate understanding of what their team’s specific strengths and weaknesses have been for the last several years.

For those who might not be familiar yet with the good work being done by Jeff Fogle at hoopdata.com, these are the two specific comments which were left there, by yours truly, earlier this afternoon, in response to the following article:

——————————————————–

Did Rose expose a Spurs’ weakness?

That paints a pretty fair picture of the two teams I think. San Antonio has smarts, experience, and varied weaponry that thrive on both sides of the court. Chicago has energy that it channels into intense defense and offensive rebounding. But, to this point, their superstar point guard has only led them to league average in offensive efficiency. There’s time for Chicago to improve even more than they already have. There’s time for one of the older Spurs to run into the kind of injury they’ve been fortunate to avoid to this point in the season. Second halves aren’t guaranteed to follow seemingly ordained paths.

The Spurs must be glad they won’t have to worry about Derrick Rose any more (unless they actually do meet in the Finals). This was their final regular season meeting with the Bulls. Tonight’s performance does suggest possible playoff danger if they run into Oklahoma City and Russell Westbrook.

=============================================

Comment #1

Jeff,

 

With all due respect … IMO, Points Scored Per 100 Possessions is not the correct way to evaluate a team’s level of efficiency – either, offensively or defensively – in the game of basketball. The correct way to do this is by using Points Scored Per Possession, with:

 

Total Team Possessions = FGAs + TOs + FTAs*.44 [i.e. what most statisticians use to represent "Plays"]

 

as the proper definition of constitutes “An Accurate Estimate of Total Team Possessions Per Game.”

 

Although this makes for a less uniform set of game data, it is also a more accurate representation of what takes place in a specific basketball game compared to a less accurate stat like Points Scored Per 100 Possessions.

 

————————————-

 

Accordingly …

 

The Chicago Bulls are currently:

 

0.929, 17th in Points Scored Per Possession [PSPP]

0.879, 2nd in Opp Points Scored Per Possession [OPSPP]

+0.050, 6th in Points Scored Per Possession Differential [PSPP-Diff]

 

The San Antonio Spurs are currently:

 

0.982, 3rd in PSPP

0.906, 5th in OPSPP

+0.076, 3rd in PSPP-Diff

 

————————————-

 

In the game from Thursday night:

 

Chicago had 99 Possessions, and generated 109 points.

San Antonio had 96 Possessions, and generated 99 points.

 

Chicago’s PSPP was 1.103.

San Antonio’s PSPP was 1.029.

 

Chicago’s PSPP-Diff was +0.074 … which is +0.024 above their average.

San Antonio’s PSPP-Diff was -0.074 … which is -0.150 below their average.

 

————————————-

 

Given how Chicago and San Antonio have performed to this point this season, what should have been expected from them on Thursday night actually looks like this:

 

Chicago

106 Offensive Possessions [Average Per Game thru 54 games]

0.929 PSPP

105 Defensive Possessions [Average Per Game thru 54 games]

0.879 OPSPP

 

San Antonio

105 Offensive Possessions [Average Per Game thru 56 games]

0.982 PSPP

106 Defensive Possesions [Average Per Game thru 56 games]

0.906 OPSPP

 

Chicago, 97.3 points

San Antonio, 97.7 points

 

————————————-

 

What specific factors produced the final score of Thursday’s game?

 

San Antonio 99

Chicago 109

 

The key differences from the norm were:

 

i. Chicago’s ability to generate 3 more offensive possessions than San Antonio [i.e. Actual/99 to 96], instead of only 1 more offensive possession [i.e. Average/106 to 105];

 

ii. Chicago’s ability to limit San Antonio to only 96 offensive possessions, compared to the Spurs’ usual output of 105 possessions;

 

and,

 

iii. Chicago’s ability to increase their PSPP by +0.174 [i.e. from 0.929 to 1.103], while allowing their OPSPP to increase by only +0.150 [i.e. from 0.879 to 1.029];

 

… which was largely attributable to the “expanded role” that Derrick Rose took on, as a legitimate “scorer”, in this specific game for the Bulls:

 

Stat, Rose/Team [Rose % of Team] vs Rose Ave/Team Ave [Rose Ave % of Team Ave], Shift

 

PTS, 42/109 [38.5] vs 24.9/98.4 [25.3], Increase *

FGA, 28/80 [35.0] vs 20.2/80.9 [25.0], Increase *

FTA, 6/20 [30.0] vs 6.2/24.3 [24.3], Increase *

Reb, 5/41 [12.3] vs 4.4/44.0 [10.0], Increase *

Ast, 8/24 [33.3] vs 8.2/21.9 [37.4], Decrease

TO, 1/10 [10.0] vs 3.5/13.7 [25.5], Decrease  

 

Cheers

=============================================

Comment #2

FWIW … re: Did the Bulls expose a specific weakness of the Spurs?

There are very few Derrick Rose-type players in the NBA today and, although he is an exceptional talent, in his own right, Russell Westbrook is not one of them.

=============================================

Hopefully these two comments are still on display, if/when you are able to drop by for a visit at this site to check it out for yourself.

After throwing away a legitimate chance at earning a rare road W, in last night game against the Bobcats … with some untidy decision-making in the late stages of the 4th quarter:

Toronto Raptors 91
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS 97
Complete Game Info

The Raptors find themselves in the 2nd half of a back-to-back this evening against a rested Bulls squad.

Although Chicago’s Starting PG is still tending to several ‘flesh wounds’ incurred in Monday’s game vs Indiana, if the respective line-ups for these two squads look like this tonight:

TORONTO RAPTORS			CHICAGO BULLS
Pos	PERSONNEL	ADV		PERSONNEL	Pos
STARTERS
PG	Bayless	à		Rose	PG
OG	Weems	=		Bogans	OG
SF	DeRozan	à		Deng	SF
PF	Johnson	à		Boozer	PF
C	Bargnani	à		Noah	C
	0			+4
KEY SUBS
PG	Barbosa	=		Watson	PG
OG	Wright	à		Korver	OG
SF	Kleiza	ß		Brewer	SF
PF	Davis	à		Gibson	PF
C	Dorsey	=		Asik	C
	+1			+1
RESERVES/EXTRAS/OUTS
C	Alabi	N/A		Johnson	SF
?		N/A		Thomas	PF
PG	Calderon [inj-?]	N/A		Lucas	PG
SF	Stojakovic [inj-?]	N/A		Scalabrine	PF
PF	Evans [inj]	N/A
	0			0
COACHING
HC	Triano	à		Thibodeau	HC
	0			+1
OVERALL
	+1			+7

—————————————————-

Published Wagering Line

Opening: Chicago -5.5/-104

Current: Chicago -5.5/-107 [as of 5:30 PM today]

—————————————————-

then, unfortunately, the Raptors will most likely end up on the lower end of a significantly tilted scoreboard.

According to Ryan Wolstat [whose basketball opinions are usual quite sound] …

———————————–

Calderon vs Jack; NBA pitching contraction

A few quick things today. Had a good discussion on Twitter Thursday about Jose Calderon vs. Jarrett Jack in the starting lineup. I don’t get it and it seems very few people do. Jose looks like a shell of his former self, he isn’t helping the team much and he is helping his trade value even less.

I’m not huge into the +- stat in basketball, but it isn’t completely useless. Calderon is -15 for the pre-season playing almost exclusively with the starters, Jack is +29 playing mostly with the reserves. Calderon is shooting 28% and 9% fromt three, meanwhile Jack is posting absurd numbers that won’t last (north of 70% from three). I know Jack is playing extremely well with the second unit, but the Raptors aren’t going to win games if the first unit puts them in a hole – which it will if Calderon tries to guard the likes of Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, Jrue Holiday, John Wall, etc., etc., etc. Teams don’t do well when they are always battling back from a deficit. At least if Calderon is coming off the bench he will only have to guard backup point guards.

———————————–

If, however, you take a careful look at …

A. The actual Play-By-Play from Wednesday’s game between the Raptors [i.e. Calderon & Jack] and the Bulls [i.e. Rose & Watson],

and, then, examine:

B. The following “Substitution Chart”:

Time	Team	PG	OG	SF	PF	C	Start	End	Diff
1st Q
12:00	Chi	Rose*	Bogans*				00	17
	TOR	Calderon^	DeRozan^				00	10	-7
5:15	Chi		Brewer				17	21
	TOR						10	12	-2
3:42	Chi	Watson					21	25
	TOR	Jack					12	16	0
1:58	Chi						25	27
	TOR		Barbosa				16	22	+4
2nd Q
12:00	Chi	Watson	Brewer*				27	29
	TOR	Jack^	Barbosa^				22	33	+9
8:59	Chi	Rose	Watson*				29	36
	TOR						33	41	+1
5:34	Chi		Bogans				36	39
	TOR						41	41	-3
5:10	Chi						39	50
	TOR	Calderon					41	54	+2
3rd Q
12:00	Chi	Rose	Bogans*				50	60
	TOR	Calderon^	DeRozan^				54	68	+4
6:08	Chi		Brewer				60	63
	TOR						68	68	-3
4:33	Chi						63	63
	TOR	Jack					68	70	+2
4:28	Chi						63	78
	TOR		Barbosa				70	75	-10
4th Q
12:00	Chi	Rose*	Brewer				78	84
	TOR	Jack^	Barbosa				75	78	-3
9:47	Chi	Watson					84	95
	TOR	Calderon^					78	85	-4
6:02	Chi						95	110
	TOR	Jack					85	103	+3
0:00	Chi						110
	TOR						103
LEGEND:
Bold – Substitution; Italics – Shifts to a new position; * – Replaced Bulls’ player; ^ – Replaced Raptors’ player.
	- Starter;
	- Key Sub;
	- Reserve/Extra.

what you should be able to see is that:

C. The Plus/Minus [+/-] comparison between the 4 Point Guards

Shift #	Calderon Vs Rose	Jack Vs Rose	Calderon Vs Watson	Jack Vs Watson
1	-7	+1	-4	0
2	-2	-3	NA	+4
3	+2	+2	NA	+9
4	+4	-10	NA	+3
5	-3	-3	NA	NA
TOTAL	-6	-13	-4	+16

Reveals the following 3 observations:

#1. It is a complete fallacy to believe/perceive/think/suggest that Jose Calderon was/is unable to be successful defensively when matched-up against the likes of Derrick Rose [i.e. the Bulls' starting PG], in comparison with Jarrett Jack;

and,

#2. A main reason why the Raptors were, in fact, able to maintain contact with the Bulls in this game, in the first place, was because of the way in which Jarrett Jack was able to succeed during his shifts on the floor vs CJ Watson [not Derrick Rose];

and,

#3. Two main reasons why the Raptors were not able to eventually beat the Bulls were:

i. The relatively poor play of Jose Calderon against both Derrick Rose and CJ Watson;

and,

ii. The exceptionally poor play of Jarrett Jack against Derrick Rose, specifically.

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PS. In addition to the 3 points mentioned above, what should also be quite clear from the “Substitution Chart” is the actual degree to which Coach Triano’s decision to use the combination of Jarrett Jack [PG] and Leandro Barbosa [OG] against the Bull’s back-court pairing of Derrick Rose [PG] and Ronnie Brewer [OG] was wholly unsuccessful!

If you’ve taken the time to read a good portion of what’s been published on this blog to-date, then, you are already familiar with a few simple “facts” about the game of basketball:

[for example]

- it is comprised of 3 distinct main phases, i.e. Defense, Rebounding and Offense

- the 1 of these 3 phases which is the least well-understood, by “fans” and other so-called “expert observers” is Rebounding … followed by Defense … primarily, due to its “central” role and the way it influences the character of an elite level team

- basketball is, fundamentally, a “team” game … in which major success and failure [i.e. winning and losing the championship] are determined, in large part, by the highly specific strengths and weaknesses of the “individual” players and their ability to work “in concert” against a particular opponent

- while statistics, in general, are a terrific tool to help one understand how the game actually works, in isolation, they are not a wholly accurate reflection of reality and, at all times, need to be evaluated critically in the appropriate context

- an examination of highly specific anecdotal evidence is a gateway to developing an accurate understanding of the way in which a championship-winning team operates that is separate and distinct from its competition 

- putting an elite level team together properly is akin to “composing a virtuoso work of art” … moreso, than simplistically “painting by the numbers”

============================

To wit:

[this is the specific comment which was just submitted by yours truly at the Wages of Wins Journal]

Another Look at Team USA in 2010

Hmmm …

 

If someone could take the time to explain the reason the previous comment which I left in this thread was removed, it would be appreciated.

 

——————————–

 

In the interim, let’s try again.

 

It is a mistake in basketball judgment to think that keeping the 12 players with the highest WP48 numbers is necessarily the best way to construct a championship-winning basketball “team”.

 

Just because Gerald Wallace’s WP48 number … which [in fact] “fails to reflect a picture of reality” [according to a respected commentor [sic] on this site like Tom Mandel] … is substantially higher than Rudy Gay’s does not mean that simply “replacing Gay with Wallace” is the better way to go, in this case, i.e. with this specific group of players, their expected opposition, and the relatively large group of [at least, somewhat redundant] PG’s still on the active roster [i.e. Curry, Billups, Rondo, Rose and Westbrook], when compared with the sheer number of wing players [i.e. combo OG/SF/PF] with good size, strength, relative quickness – at their respective positions – and the ability to: i. defend, ii. rebound, iii. shoot the ball efficiently from distance, and iv. be high volume scorers, e.g. like Iguodala, Gay and Durant].

 

When you dissect how a championship-winning team is actually put together, what you will find is that rarely – if ever – is it simply a conglomeration of the 12 players with the highest available WP48 numbers [e.g. Was Charles Barkley a member of the 1984 team? or, Was Isiah Thomas a member of the original Dream Team?] And, the exact reasons for this are rarely – if ever – rooted in the way these specific players performed in lead-up public scrimmage situations.

 

Unfortunately, numeric-based analysis of basketball which reads like this is what can create a poor image overall for “stats” gurus, in the eyes of elite level coaches the world over.

 

[Hopefully this comment meets with your approval.]

—————

Enjoy!

 

During the 1st quarter of today’s Las Vegas Summer League game between the Toronto Raptors and the Sacramento Kings, commentator Rick Kamla posed the following question, while extolling the virtues of last year’s NBA Rookie of the Year:

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———————————————————–

Hmmm …

This corner has a different answer to that question than Mr. Kamla.