khandor’s sports blog

If the following reports are, in fact, to be believed …

Thomas’ Bulls time likely about finished

With Tyrus Thomas it’s personal now

what becomes readily apparent is that

the people charged with running things in Chicago - i.e. Jerry Reinsdorf, John Paxson and Gar Forman - have temporarily lost their mind, if they simply want to ”give away” a player like Tyrus Thomas [23 yrs of age; 4th NBA season], either, now [as the NBA's trade deadline approaches], or at the end of this season. 

When you look at the significant progress which a player like Josh Smith [24 yrs of age; 6th NBA season] has made this season, as a young, unbridled Power Forward, with the world of talent but, also, the need for increased personal discipline in his individual game … it’s extremely short-sighted of Chicago’s current management team to fail to realize exactly what they actually have on their hands in the form of:

* young Mr. Double T

working [and maturing] in conjunction with

* Joakim Noah/C [24 years of age]

* Luol Deng/SF [24 yrs of age]

* John Salmons/OG-SF [30 yrs of age]

* Taj Gibson/PF [24 years of age]

* James Johnson/SF-PF [22 yrs of age]

* Kirk Hinrich/OG-PG [29 years of age], and

* Derrick Rose/PG [21 yrs of age].

Trading a still-young player with Tyrus Thomas’ physical ability and specific skill-set [i.e. Rebounding, Defense, Shot-blocking and an Increasingly Developed Offensive Repertoire] is one thing …

as long as an organization gets back, in return, an equivalent package of assets, or more …

but, simply giving that player away … for nothing:

——————————— 

Tyrus Thomas can be yours

I can’t think of a single player, with the possible exception of New York’s David Lee, that has been jerked around more than Thomas. And I can’t think of a single player, with no exception, that has acted like more of a prat than Tyrus. A nasty combination.

One doesn’t lead to the other, but it doesn’t help. Thomas was drafted as a project by the Bulls in 2006, but he was never treated like a project. Instead, he was treated like some four-year college starter that had been on CBS too many times to mention, and someone who was used to the grind. Thomas wasn’t used to the grind. He was a basketball scrub until his late teens. He only had one year of slapping the backboards at LSU. He was ready, but he wasn’t ready.

The Bulls not only acted as if he was ready, but he was also added to the Chicago roster at the start of Scott Skiles’ weird passive-aggressive phase. When Skiles - who often seems like a perfect mix of the best qualities of Larry Brown and Don Nelson - started utilizing the worst qualities of Larry Brown and Don Nelson. The strange rotations. The stubbornness. The attention to obsession, rather than detail.          

Thomas played less than a year and a half under Skiles, but it may have well been two years. Because Skiles was replaced on an interim basis by Jim Boylan, a pointless move in retrospect, because Boylan was Skiles’ number two, and he promptly spent the entirety of his obviously-interim gig taking out Skiles’ indirect frustrations with certain players out on the kids who had wronged Boylan’s buddy the most.

So Thomas would leave the game, for long stretches, for no apparent reason. And, just as much, he would stay in the game for no apparent reason. Almost to a night, the good play would go unrewarded, and the bad play would go unacknowledged. How in the hell was this kid, this man, supposed to learn?

Left to his own devices, the project acted like - and I know you’re shocked - a project. Until it was/is time for Chicago to write off another cheapo lottery pick, and take in the savings.

It didn’t have to be like this. And, potential suitors? Thomas doesn’t have to be like this.

———————————

Thomas big help in 109-101 Bulls’ victory

“He’s so athletic that he affects the game when he’s engaged,” John Salmons said. “He gets his hands on balls, rebounds, puts back shots. When he masters that, he really helps us.”

Salmons’ answer proved far more expansive than those from Thomas, who entered just 2:18 after tipoff and played the next 14:46. That’s close Thomas’ playing time from each of his last three games, which led to his frustration and blow-up.

Before the game, Thomas said he had “no regrets” about the incident and “there’s nothing to be frustrated about.” Afterward, he addressed his night, which included him grabbing three rebounds and playing six minutes before his first shot — a strong drive and score after passing up a jumper.

“I felt good,” he said. “I was just playing ball, trying to win, working for the team. I’m always ready to play. The more you’re out there, the more you can do.”

———————————

makes absolutely no sense … except, perhaps, from a $$$ standpoint … if the ultimate goal there is actually trying to win the NBA Championship, again, in the not-too-distant future.

With their current cast of characters, it would be a mistake for the Bulls to think that what their team actually needs to do this summer is add 2 high-priced, free agent signees … when all Chicago really needs is:

1. To add THE right player, and

2. Give their existing collection of players a legitimate chance to grow and develop together, 

3. Under the direction of a truly Top Notch NBA coach.  

————

Update:

Bulls not lacking for Thomas suitors [Feb 11 2010]

Deron Williams and the Jazz know what they’re doing

“With Chris Paul sidelined, is any point guard playing better than Deron Williams?”

There are a few things I try not to do. Among them:

• I try not to wake up my wife and kids when they’re sleeping.
• I try not to call people who have little children late at night.
• Realizing I’m a journalist, not a coach, I try not to make statements that rely strictly on my own cobbled-together basketball judgment.
• I try not to curse.

Last night I came this close to breaking all those rules …

———————————————-

Given the already stated preference of this corner, when forced to choose between CP3 and D-Will …

It’s the Age of the Point Guard, in today’s NBA [Dec 18 2009]

it is now a simple fact that the age-old …

QUESTION of …

Who is the best Point Guard in the NBA today?

… needs to be asked and, then, answered, in a different way than it’s ever been asked before … 

Regular Season								FG					3PT					FT				Rebounds					Misc
Opponent	Score	GS	Min		M	A	Pct			M	A	Pct			M	A	Pct			Off	Def		Tot		Ast	TO		Stl	Blk	PF	Pts
MEM	W 105-89	1	37:07		7	14	50.0			1	4	25.0			7	7	100.0			1	5		6		15	4		1	1	2	22
Opponent	Score	GS	Min		M	A	Pct			M	A	Pct			M	A	Pct			Off	Def		Tot		Ast	TO		Stl	Blk	PF	Pts
LAC	W 114-89	1	39:55		10	20	50.0			5	6	83.3			7	8	87.5			1	2		3		11	1		1	0	1	32
@ IND	W 94-73	1	35:39		6	18	33.3			0	4	0.0			10	17	58.8			0	9		9		13	5		2	4	2	22
MIN	W 109-95	1	30:33		3	8	37.5			1	3	33.3			5	6	83.3			0	6		6		11	3		1	1	1	12
@ MIA	W 92-91	1	38:31		9	23	39.1			2	9	22.2			12	17	70.6			0	9		9		4	4		1	0	3	32
OKC	W 100-99	1	42:38		9	19	47.4			6	10	60.0			13	19	68.4			0	9		9		12	6		1	1	2	37
LAL	W 93-87	1	40:24		13	25	52.0			1	9	11.1			10	13	76.9			0	5		5		9	4		2	1	3	37
TOR	W 108-100	1	41:01		8	18	44.4			0	7	0.0			12	14	85.7			0	9		9		11	3		3	3	1	28
@ LAC	W 102-101	1	38:54		12	20	60.0			3	6	50.0			5	7	71.4			2	2		4		4	5		2	1	3	32
@ UTH	L 96-97	1	40:25		12	20	60.0			4	6	66.7			8	12	66.7			1	8		9		6	5		5	1	1	36
@ GSW	W 117-114	1	41:37		12	23	52.2			1	4	25.0			12	14	85.7			1	7		8		11	2		2	4	1	37

considering THE WAY a certain member of the Cleveland Cavaliers has been conducting his on-court business since approximately Jan 11 2010.

LeBron James’ Complete Game Log

———————————————————–

———————————————————–

THE CORRECT ANSWER is … LeBron James.

[... which is something this corner has been advocating for at least the last 2+ years quite some time ... i.e. Best Point Guards in the NBA: An Update, Jan 30 2008]

 

———————–

PS. In sharp contrast to other NBA experts/analysts/fans/etc. … there is a good reason why many of the statements and observations which appear on this blog do, in fact, rely mostly on “cobbled-together basketball judgment” rather than elaborate prose and/or the use of unnecessarily complicated new-age statistics. For those of you who took the time to read what Henry Abbott wrote in his introduction, it’s important to always be aware of How the Principle of Opposite functions in The Game of Hoops.

 

Despite what some might have you think …

———————————————

Rose leading charge for Bulls

Derrick Rose may not make the All-Star team, especially since the votes were all in before the Bulls’ win Wednesday night in Oklahoma City, but he’s finally emerging as a star. His impressive performance on the road against the Thunder — 13-of-23 from the floor (56.5 percent), seven assists, just two turnovers — was the latest in a series of virtuoso efforts.

It seems that the only thing that was holding him back the first month and a half of the season was the ankle injury he suffered in training camp. Check out his monthly splits:

• November: 16.2 points, 5. 3 assists, 46.4 percent shooting
• December: 20.4 points, 6.1 assists, 45.0 percent shooting
• January: 23.5 points, 6.5 assists, 51.4 percent shooting

Thanks to Rose, the Bulls are 12-5 in their past 17 games, including 10 road games. Out of the blue, Chicago stands in complete control of the No. 8 seed in the East and in position to surge as high as No. 5 by the end of the season.

———————————————

the recently improved performance of the Bulls has not been rooted, soley, in the increased scoring production of their 2nd-yr PG, considering:

I. The shift of Kirk Hinrich into the Starting OG position;

II. The shift of John Salmons into the Sixth Man Role [i.e. coming off the bench];

III. The return of Tyrus Thomas, from the injured list …

Tyrus Thomas Regular Season  - Game Log							FG					3PT						FT					Rebounds					Misc
Oppo	Score	GS	Min		M	A		Pct		M	A		Pct		M	A	Pct			Off	Def	Tot			Ast	TO	Stl		Blk	PF	Pts
@ OKC	W 96-86	0	18:32		6	8		75.0		0	0		N/A		1	1	100.0			3	2	5			1	5	1		2	3	13
@ SAS	W 98-93	0	21:33		1	4		25.0		0	0		N/A		0	0	N/A			2	5	7			0	1	1		2	0	2
@ HOU	W 104-97	0	23:35		3	5		60.0		0	0		N/A		1	2	50.0			0	4	4			1	2	0		6	4	7
@ PHO	W 115-104	0	20:56		1	7		14.3		0	0		N/A		1	2	50.0			0	7	7			2	0	1		2	0	3
@ LAC	L 97-104	0	36:19		8	11		72.7		0	0		N/A		2	4	50.0			0	6	6			1	1	2		3	6	18
@ GSW	L 97-114	0	19:48		2	7		28.6		0	0		N/A		0	0	N/A			1	8	9			0	1	0		1	6	4
WAS	W 121-119	0	27:33		1	1		100.0		0	0		N/A		2	2	100.0			2	2	4			0	0	0		2	3	4
@ BOS	W 96-83	0	17:15		2	8		25.0		0	0		N/A		1	4	25.0			6	1	7			1	1	4		0	3	5
DET	W 120-87	0	26:09		3	6		50.0		0	0		N/A		1	1	100.0			2	4	6			1	0	6		2	1	7
MIN	W 110-96	0	21:42		3	7		42.9		0	0		N/A		3	4	75.0			0	5	5			0	6	2		3	5	9
@ MIL	L 93-96	0	29:19		1	4		25.0		0	0		N/A		2	2	100.0			0	5	5			2	1	1		1	2	4
@ CHA	L 108-113	0	22:48		2	5		40.0		0	0		N/A		2	6	33.3			1	4	5			3	1	1		2	2	6
OKC	L 85-98	0	20:37		3	12		25.0		0	0		N/A		1	1	100.0			3	3	6			2	3	0		1	2	7
ORL	W 101-93	0	14:59		3	7		42.9		0	0		N/A		0	0	N/A			1	4	5			1	2	1		0	4	6
Oppo	Score	GS	Min		M	A		Pct		M	A		Pct		M	A	Pct			Off	Def	Tot			Ast	TO	Stl		Blk	PF	Pts
@ DET	W 98-87	0	27:31		4	6		66.7		0	0		N/A		11	14	78.6			4	3	7			2	3	2		1	1	19
IND	W 104-95	0	31:08		2	10		20.0		0	0		N/A		4	4	100.0			2	13	15			3	5	1		3	1	8
NOR	W 96-85	0	32:15		10	17		58.8		0	1		0.0		1	3	33.3			0	9	9			2	3	1		2	2	21

each of which coincided with the Bulls’ game against New Orleans [Dec 26];

and,

IV. The continued solid play of Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, and Brad Miller, since the start of the season.

The truth of the matter is that during this specific stretch of games played, the Bulls’ head coach … the once-beleaguerd Vinnie Del Negro … not Derrick Rose [PG], has actually been the person most responsible for Chicago’s improved W-L record.

This corner of the blogosphere has been saying for at least the last 2+ years that Deron Williams is, in fact, a better PG than the Annointed One, Chris Paul …  

However, despite the affection which exists here for the members of the TNT Crew, please let it still be known, to one and all, that there is also a VERY BIG difference between making a comparative statement like that, and subsequently christening D-Will as the No. 1 PG, overall, in the entire NBA today … whilest other top dogs, like:

Chauncey Billups
Steve Nash
Tony Parker, and
Jason Kidd

are still running, at near full-throttle, in the pound, and other still-as-yet wet-behind-the-ears young bucks, like:

Rajon Rondo
Devin Harris
Russell Westbrook
Derrick Rose
Rodney Stuckey
Monta Ellis
Tyreke Evans, and
Brandon Jennings

are just beginning to prowl.

Indeed, in the grand history of the game, you might not be able to identify any other era during which quite THIS many [and potentially even more than just the 14 names listed here] very-good-to-perhaps-great Point Guards roamed the floors of the NBA, all at once, on an every day basis.

In an effort to build further on a specific request which was made of yours truly this past weekend …

This is the recap which Kelly Dwyer [BDL] posted concerning Saturday’s Chicago Bulls/Boston Celtics game:

Behind the Box Score, where the C’s outclassed the Bulls

This is the specific comment [#9] which yours truly then contributed:

KD,

PART ONE

When I was an active contributor to the Blog-a-Bull comment section 2 seasons ago, I did my best to inform the regulars there that Chicago’s problems at that time were NOT rooted in the poor [shot-happy] play of one Ben Gordon and that, instead, what the Bulls needed to do was:

1. Use Ben Gordon as their Starting Point Guard;

2. Use Thabo Sefolosha as their Starting Off Guard;

3. Use Luol Deng as their Starting Small Forward;

4. Use Tyrus Thomas as their Starting Power Forward;

5. Use Joakim Noah as their Starting Center; and,

6. Trade Kirk Hinrich, in return for either: A. The Scoring Player they needed to bring off their bench; or, B. An Interior Scoring Center.

Unfortunately …

7. Most Bulls fans were under the delusional impression that Captain Kirk was a better NBA player than Gentle Ben;

8. Ben Gordon was incapable of succeeding as a Prime-time PG, in the NBA, and was the player who Chicago needed to trade, in order to improve their prospects for the future.

If the Bulls would have done what I suggested and then Derrick Rose fell into their lap in the 2008 NBA Draft, they would not be where they are today.

—————————–

PART TWO

How to fix the Bulls’ problems right now?

1. Cut Lindsey Hunter

2. Sign Von Wafer.

3. Scale back Derrick Rose’s MPG to 32.

4. Increase Pargo’s MPG to 16, as the Primary Back-up PG.

5. Sign a post-up Guard-Forward like, Bonzi Wells.

6. Use Aaron Gray as their Starting Center [until Tyrus is healthy].

7. Use Joakim Noah as their Starting Power Forward [until Tyrus is healthy].

8. Use the following rotation:

STARTERS
Rose + Wafer + Deng + Noah + Gray

KEY SUBS
Pargo + Hinrich + Salmons + Gibson + Miller

RESERVES
Wells + Johnson

That 12 man team, right there, would be good enough to make the playoffs in the EC this season.

Cheers

——————————————–

Then, this is the follow-up comment [#13] submitted by Keith Singer:

Hi Khandor,

You’ve done an excellent job of analyzing the Bull’s problems and made intelligent suggestions. Here are a few thoughts for you. Please respond on the forum or via e-mail, your choice (ksinger@kasesq.com).

1. Ben Gordon- Bulls management may have undervalued the contributions of Ben Gordon or they may have recognized his talents but decided that the asking price was too high. They probably felt that Gordon was too small to guard some 2’s and his defense was sub-par. They obviously thought that Salmons would step in and continue his production of last year. Personally, I felt Salmons would drop off closer to his career numbers. His defense was expected to be better than Gordon’s but that D has been disappointing. They probably felt that the cap space saved would be better spent on a free agent in 2010 than on Gordon. We won’t be able to assess the wisdom of their choice until the summer.

2. Derrick Rose- I think they expected a big season from Rose; they couldn’t have known that he would experience an ankle injury. Part of the failure of the current team is the sub-par year that Rose has experienced, thus far.

3. Tyrus Thomas- They couldn’t have anticipated the injury to Tyrus Thomas. I think they believed that Thomas would have been the starting PF all year. Yes, Taj Gibson is a rookie and looked good but Bulls Management expected a career year from Thomas. When Noah is out of position trying to block a shot or overmatched in girth, Thomas could double team or grab a rebound for which Noah would be out of position.

4. Aaron Gray- I think your point about Gray is interesting. I am not sure if Gray is as good as you think. Although I agree with you that he is on the roster and large enough to keep the larger centers out of the lane. We have not seen him play enough but giving him a chance is not a bad idea. Look at the Dallas Mavericks, they are utilizing a platoon system with Dampier and Drew Gooden. That could work with Noah and Gray as well.

5. Kirk Hinrich- I agree that Kirk Hinrich is overrated. He has had a sub-par season thus far. He was touted for his shooting and defense; both aspects of his game have been missing. The Bulls did sign a back up in Pargo, however he is a scorer more than a pass first point guard.

6. Von Wafer- It is tantalizing to think about his potential and how he could help the Bulls or any other team for that matter. However, you must remember the problems that Rick Adelman had with him. Adelman has proven that he is a fantastic coach but could not get Wafer to listen and learn his system. Other point guards are available like Brevin Knight who was a pass first point guard. I don’t know about his conditioning and ability to play today.

7. Bonzi Wells- An inside scorer would help the Bulls but Bonzi Wells caused trouble wherever he went. They would be better served looking for a post up player in 2010 free agency.

I think you make some good points and the Bulls certainly have their work to do the rest of the year and over the summer to improve. They are definitely not playing at the same level as the Celtics; but remember the Celtics are an older team. They Bulls should be building a younger team that will compete for a championship in future when the Celtics are rebuilding. Regarding the article by Kelly Dwyer, I couldn’t agree more. Luol Deng played well while the rest of the team was not as talented and not as well prepared as the Celtics. The Bulls do have their work to do but they do have cap money to spend in 2010.

Best regards,

Keith Singer, Esq.

——————————————–

Hopefully, Keith [and KD] won’t mind too much if we shift the discussion over to this location … i.e. to allow it room to grow in a place where it will be easier to moderate and ensure that other interested parties can have direct access to it without first having to sort through a series of unrelated comments.

Keith,

The answers to your specific questions are as follows:

1. Chicago’s management … and a great many of the Bulls fans … have been wrong about the specific skill-set which Ben Gordon brings to the table in the NBA game.

Yes, Ben Gordon is a shorter Off Guard, when it comes to checking some of the taller #2/3’s in the NBA.

However …

I. Ben Gordon is not considered a shorter player when he’s used defensively to check the Point Guard position. If he’s allowed to use his height/size to advantage … i.e. by gapping … and not required by his coach to apply “turn-the-screws” defensive pressure at all times, Ben Gordon is a capable defender at the PG position.

II. If/when Ben Gordon plays beside Derrick Rose, they become almost inter-changeable, at the PG and OG positions, minimizing any height advantage an opponent’s taller OG might have … due to the fact that the opponent’s guard tandem would then have to:

i. Cope with the Bulls’ ad hoc ”Switchability”, on defense, while still maintaining a physically solid player [Gordon/6-3, 200; Rose/6-3, 190] against their scoring/shooting guard [e.g. Ray Allen/6-5, 205; or, Kobe Bryant/6-6, 205]; and,

ii. Cope with the Bulls’ ad hoc “ability to generate high percentage shots which stem from dribble penetration” by either Rose or Gordon, for both [A] themselves and/or [B] their less dynamic teammates.

iii. Cope with the Bull’s ensuing height/size advantage at the Point Guard position, while attempting to Rebound and Defend against Rose and Gordon.

On Offense, Gordon’s specific skill-set [i.e. his ability to create his own shot and stretch the defense with long range 3's] is a terrific pairing with Rose’s ability to dribble penetrate.

III. On offense, when Derrick Rose is out of the game …

If Ben Gordon is used at the PG position, what’s required is:

* 1st, to get the ball out of his hands

[e.g. with a simple pass to either wing]

* 2nd, to get the ball back into his hands, in a scoring position, from a designated action which also allows his teammates to touch the ball

[e.g. with a simple UCLA cut/back screen to the block; and a straight-forward "Single-Double" action, Ben Gordon becomes a devastating scoring Combo Guard, in the mode of Vinny "The Microwave" Johnson.]

Used in this fashion, Ben Gordon is a High Level NBA player … who is worth every penny of a large, long term contract.

Chicago made a BIG MISTAKE in letting him go this past summer.

[Please Note: While there's a great deal to like about the specific skill-set which John Salmons has, as a Big Guard, when the starting SF on your team is Luol Deng ... who specializes in the mid-range game, as well, without really being able to stretch the D with the 3, or slash to the hoop in a first-class way ... then, it is simply not a good fit using him for major minutes beside a PG like Derrick Rose, who struggles with his perimeter jump-shot and a Center like Joakim Noah, who is not a high precentage back-to-the-basket scorer, or an efficient mid-range jump-shooter.]

2. Yes, Derrick Rose’s ankle injury has significantly reduced his overall effectiveness, so far this season … but, primarily it’s because Chicago has not yet replaced Ben Gordon’s ability to stretch the defense with long range 3’s and create open shots for himself and/or his teammates. If Rose still had this type of player beside him in the line-up for major minutes, his limited agility/mobility/explosiveness/etc. would not be such a detriment to the Bulls.

3. Yes, losing an athletic, energetic and exuberant Power Forward like Tyrus Thomas, for a major stretch of games, has been a huge factor in the Bulls’ poor play this season. In partnership with terrific overall athletes like Rose, Gordon and Noah [i.e shot-blocker #1A], last season Thomas [i.e. shot-blocker #1] gave Chicago 4 starting players who were each capable of Rebounding and Defending multiple positions on the floor during any given possession … which is a major advantage for a team.

4. It’s a total fallacy that a player needs to have a high degree of “NBA talent” in order to play effectively at the Center position. What matters most is:

- Does a player have the speed and quickness and stamina required to run the floor consistently in transition?

- Does a player have a solid frame with adequate size [i.e. some combination of girth, strength and length]?

- Does a player have a solid aptitude for the game [i.e. the ability to read the game and play with/off his teammates]?

- Does a player have solid eam attitude [i.e. unselfishness]?

- Does a player have a specific type of shot which he can make on a consistent basis [i.e. Catch & Shoot mid-range jump-shot; Drop-step power lay-up; Turn-around jump-shot; etc.]

- Does a player have the ability to pass the ball with his back to the basket? 

If the answers to these questions are, “Yes”, then the player can succeed playing the Center position in the NBA. 

The two simple equations look like this:

OPTION #1. The less “NBA athletic” talent a player has at the C position the more “NBA athletic” talent his 4 teammates must be.

OPTION #2. The more “NBA athletic” talent a player has at the C position the less “NBA athletic” talent his 4 teammates can be.

Aaron Gray [C, 7-0, 270] is plenty “good enough” to be used for spot minutes in the NBA.

5. Kirk Hinrich simply hasn’t been the same player since he lost his spot with the USA National Team.

IMO, no other player who participated with the USA national teams that failed to win Gold Medals at the 2002 and 2006 World Championships, and the 2004 Olympic Games, has been [psycho-emotionally] “damaged” more by those specific losses … and the impression which they created across the NBA … than Captain Kirk. It’s a real shame, too, as prior to his experience with that team … where his confidence was shot … he was on track to have an outstanding pro career, as a highly versatile Combo Guard, who could do a little bit of everything fairly well without excelling at any specific aspect of the game.

6. Von Wafer can be a difficult player to handle … but, only if your roster is filled with other players who are just as good or better than he is, as an explosive scorer at the wing position. This is not the situation with the Bulls current line-up.

7. Bonzi Wells … signed to a 1-yr, NBA veteran’s minimum contract … would not be a difficult player for the Bulls’ to incorporate at this time. When he knows his role, and is actually used in that role, exclusively, he becomes a very valuable post-up scorer for a team like Chicago, without a high percentage post-up player on its current roster. To get the Bulls to next season, without being totally embarrassed this year, he becomes a decent, inexpensive add that effectively addresses a specific short term need.

Thanks for your feedback!

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 8– vs Chicago [Wed Nov 11]

 

RAPTORS		ADV	BULLS
PG	Calderon	à	PG	Rose
OG	DeRozan *	à	OG	Hinrich
SF	Turkoglu $^	=	SF	Deng
PF	Bosh	ß	PF	Thomas
C	Bargnani	=	C	Noah
PG	Jack #	ß	PG	Pargo $
OG	Belinelli ^	=	OG	Salmons
SF	Wright ^	=	SF	Johnson *
PF	Evans ^	ß	PF	Gibson *
C	Nesterovic $	=	C	Miller
G/F	Douby	=	G	Hunter
PF	Johnson ^	=	C	Gray
HC	Triano	à	HC	Del Negro
+3		OUTCOME	+3
Legend: ADV – Individual match-up advantage; * - 2009 NBA Draftee; ^ - Acquired via trade; # - Restricted free agent; #M – Restricted free agent, matched offer; $ - Unrestricted free agent; $R – Unrestricted free agent, re-signed; $^ - Acquired via Sign & Trade; Italics – Returning player.

The Bulls will be a significantly bigger team than they were for much of last season, substituting Luol Deng at the #3/SF position in place of John Salmons, shifting Salmons to the #2/OG position in place of Ben Gordon, and then introducing 2 athletic 1st Round Draft Picks … each with good size at their position … into their rotation at the back-up #3/SF-#4/PF and #4/PF positions, i.e. James Johnson [No. 16, overall] and Taj Gibson [No. 26, overall], respectively. Last year’s arrival of Derrick Rose [PG, 2008 No. 1, overall, Draft Pick], in conjunction with Joakim Noah [C, 2007 No. 9, overall Draft Pick] and Tyrus Thomas [PF, 2006 No. 4, overall Draft Pick], means that Chicago now has a collection of talented young players that can rival the other up-and-coming teams across the NBA. Given the invaluable experience the Bulls gained from their epic 1st Round playoff loss to the Celtics, this team is going to be a dangerous squad this year … but, one which is still going to suffer periods of inconsistency considering the youth on the roster. Playing their 3rd game in 5 days and the 2nd half of a back-2-back, Chicago should be in a vulnerable position for this game … with the Raptors in desperate need of a home-court victory to get back on the right track after their disappointing road trip. 

Raptors expected W-L Record: W, 3-5

Yesterday’s action finished with the following results:

W-L: 2-2/.500
Units: -1.08

which are slightly better than Day 1 but not where they need to be … just yet. 

Overall, after Day 2:

W-L: 3-4/.429
Units: -3.37

Hopefully, the news will continue to get better today. :-) 

================================================

Mon Apr 20 2009

Game 1 - 2/Celtics vs 7/Bulls

As was said here two days ago … the strength of Derrick Rose’s individual game is a giant neutralizer of one Rajon Rondo for the defending champs. How Doc Rivers copes with this reality will be a key in this evening’s Game 2 of this series. It’s one thing knowing that your emotional center-piece is not going to be you your line-up in the playoffs and another thing altogether, lacing them up and taking the court without him, at the front of the line, wearing #5. The Celtics should be much better prepared for this evening’s tilt, from this standpoint alone. There is no Superman coming in from the Wings to save them. If they’re going to get to Round 2, they will a far better performance from both Jesus Shuttlesworth and Da Truth. Keep your eyes peeled, as well, for Bill Walker, as he presents one of the few options on the Celtics’ bench that can increase their size and athleticism at the Wings when Pierce and/or Allen-R need to rest. Can the Baby Bulls [i.e. Rose, Noah & Thomas-Ty] possibly perform as they did on Saturday afternoon, for a second consecutive game in the playoffs? 41-41/.500 suggests that it’s a stretch to think it likely. Expect the C’s to start much better this evening; then, ride the emotion of their home crowd through the balance of the 2nd half. The Bulls are young at key positions, and it will be difficult for them to maintain their concentration for 96 consecutive minutes, in enemy territory, with the champs at the ready and staring at 0-2.

Chicago +8.5/-102
BOSTON -8.5/-106
Call: BOSTON [1 unit]

Game 2 - 3/SPURS vs 6/Mavericks

Everything about the San Antonio organization says that they will find a way to square this series, somehow, this evening. But, 6.5 points is a lot to give up … without Manu Ginobili, completely, and Tim Duncan being far from 100%. Can Coach Popovich pull another rabbit from his hat? You bet, he can … especially if he goes retro with the deployment of his troops in this series, i.e. MAIN PLAYERS: Parker + Finley + Bowen + Oberto + Duncan; KEY SUBS: Mason, Hill, Udoka, Gooden & Thomas. Matt Bonner has had a good season, and has provided the Spurs with solid points production from the #4/PF spot beside the Big Fundamental … but, that will do them no good in this series when what they NEED is to DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE THEIR REBOUNDING, at positions #2/OG, #3/SF, and most importantly #4/PF. The Mavericks are a veteran outfit that many have a tendency to forget were good enough to put up 67 wins just two seasons ago and lost in the NBA Finals, to D-Wade & Co., the year before that. Dallas matches up exceptionally well with their opponent in this series [especially, given the absence of Ginobili, and Pops' questionable decisions to start Mason and give only reduced minutes to the Karate Kid]. Even if they go down to defeat this evening, Dallas should have the know-how to keep it close until the final minute of the 4th period.

Dallas +6/-105
SAN ANTONIO -6/-105
Call: Dallas [2 unit]

FINAL SCORE: Raptors 109, BULLS 98
Complete Game Info

———-

Earlier this season, Scott G., an astute NBA observer with a backgound in the game as a former university player, asked if this corner might be able to unearth some more information about what was casually referred to here as The Jason Kapono Effect on this year’s Toronto Raptors.

Although some might find it hard to believe, yours truly is a rather busy camper these days and doesn’t have nearly as much time available to devote to an in-depth statistical analysis of all-things Raptors, especially, in a season like this one … which has seen the team plummet to 13th place in the EC Standings.

Still, whenever possible, it’s a pleasure to provide a brief glimpse of something specific like this for a first-class individual like Scott G., if the opportunity presents itself, admittedly, in a limited way.

Such was the occasion last night, for the Raptors’ final game of the 2008-2009 season, versus the Chicago Bulls [7th place in the EC].

This is how the game played out for the Raptors:

TORONTO RAPTORS’ SHIFT TRACKER Wed Apr 15 2009 at Chicago Bulls
#	Time	1	2	3	4	5	Diff
1st Quarter
1	08:42	Calderon	Parker	Marion	Bosh	O’Bryant	+13
2	01:30	Calderon	Parker	Marion	MBonsu	Bosh	0
3	01:09	Ukic	Parker	Marion	MBonsu	Bosh	+1
4	00:39	Ukic	Parker	Marion	MBonsu	O’Bryant	0
2nd Quarter
5	01:46	Ukic	Kapono	Graham	MBonsu	O’Bryant	-2
6	02:59	Ukic	Kapono	Graham	Bosh	O’Bryant	+4
7	00:54	Calderon	Kapono	Graham	Marion	Bosh	-5
8	01:57	Calderon	Parker	Kapono	Marion	Bosh	-7
9	03:37	Calderon	Parker	Marion	Bosh	O’Bryant	+3
10	00:25	Calderon	Parker	Graham	Marion	Bosh	+4
11	00:22	Calderon	Ukic	Graham	Marion	Bosh	0
3rd Quarter
12	06:21	Calderon	Parker	Marion	Bosh	O’Bryant	+1
13	02:13	Calderon	Parker	Marion	Bosh	Voskuhl	0
14	01:39	Ukic	Parker	Marion	Bosh	Voskuhl	+2
15	00:47	Ukic	Kapono	Graham	Bosh	Voskuhl	0
4th Quarter
16	03:04	Ukic	Kapono	Graham	Marion	O’Bryant	+1
17	03:30	Calderon	Kapono	Graham	Marion	Bosh	-5
18	05:05	Calderon	Parker	Kapono	Marion	Bosh	+1
19	00:21	Calderon	Parker	Kapono	Graham	O’Bryant	-1
LEGEND: Bold – Player subbed into game; Italics – Player shifted to different position.

 

and this is how things looked from a “Best Raptors” and “Best Bulls” on the floor perspective, according to the rudimentary k-PER [i.e. khandor's Player Efficiency Rating] which was explained here last week:

Bulls  98 Raptors  109
Player MIN kPER D-Rose 43 +28 J-Noah 31 +21 B-Miller 30 +20 Ty-Thomas 30 +17 B-Gordon 36 +9 L-Johnson 4 +2 Ti-Thomas 19 +2 J-Salmons 29 -3 K-Hinrich 17 -6 A-Gray DNP – L-Hunter DNP – A-Roberson DNP – L-Deng DNP – J-James DNP – D-Nelson DNP – TOTAL   90	Player MIN kPER S-Marion 42 +43 J-Calderon 36 +23 C-Bosh 42 +20 A-Parker 35 +10 P-O’Bryant 27 +8 J-Kapono 20 +7 R-Ukic 12 +4 J-Voskuhl 6 +3 J-Graham 14 +1 P-MBonsu 5 -5 Q-Doubyl DNP – M-Banks DNP – N-Jawai DNP – K-Humphries DNP – A-Bargnani DNP – TOTAL   114

If you examine these two indexes thoroughly what you should be able to see for yourself are the following facts:

The Raptors played without Andrea Bargnani last night.

The Raptors finished +23 when Chris Bosh played Power Forward [20:42].
The Raptaors finished -11 when Chris Bosh played Center [14:52].
The Raptors finished -1 when Chris Bosh was on the bench [05:50].

When Chris Bosh played Center AND Jason Kapono was on the floor … for 11:26 … the Raptors finished -16.

When Chris Bosh played Center AND Jason Kapono was NOT on the floor … for 03:26 … the Raptors finished +5.

———-

Preliminary Conclusions

When the Raptors play without Andrea Bargnani in their line-up AND play Chris Bosh at Center AND do NOT have Jason Kapono on the floor in a 5-Man Unit with CB4 they may be a solid team in the EC that is capable of competing effectively with squads like the Chicago Bulls.

Pointing Toward The Future

Some other enterprising young person should take the time to study initial data like this and then track the “cumulative negative effect” it has on a NBA team when a non-rebounder/defender who is also an infrequent shooter and does not get to the Free Throw very much at all … like Jason Kapono … is on the court for as much as 20 minutes per game, beside a finesse Center like Chris Bosh and finesse Point Guards like Jose Calderon and/or Roko Ukic and/or Anthony parker.

What they might find is that this type of comparative analysis actually yields a statistically significant finding … with the benefit of a representative sample size … which indicates that the Raptors are simply WASTING THEIR AVAILABLE RESOURCES by employing a player like Jason Kapono in this way.

From the perspective of this corner … although these old eyes could always be mistaken about this … a formal research study of that particular type doesn’t appear to be necessary.

The following is an excerpt of something which Kelly Dwyer wrote today, pertaining to the recent goings-on with the Bulls’ starting line-up:

Behind the box score, where the Bulls are mixed up
Give the Bulls coaching staff credit. Starting Derrick Rose, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, [Tyrus] Thomas and [Joakim] Noah means that the Bulls are starting their five best players, at appropriate positions. For those who have been complaining about this for years, it is a wonderful thing to behold.

… which promptly set the wheels in motion in this corner, thinking about whether or not this statement is, in fact, accurate.

———-

Q1. Are Derrick Rose, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah the Bulls’ five best players, at the respective positions they should be playing in the Starting Unit for Chicago?

A1. No, they are not.

———-

How come?

At the moment, Chicago is 18-25/.419, 4th in the Central Division and 10th, in the EC, overall.

Derrick Rose [6-3, 190] is, by far, the best PG on the Bulls’ roster. He SHOULD BE starting games for this team.

Ben Gordon [6-3, 200] is NOT the best OG on the Bulls’ roster, although he is a solid Combination Guard. He should NOT BE starting games for this team.

Luol Deng [6-9, 220] is NOT the best SF on the Bulls’ roster, although he is a solid mid-range jump shooter. He should NOT BE starting games for this team.

Tyrus Thomas [6-9, 215] is NOT the best PF on the Bulls’ roster, although he is exceptionally athletic. He should NOT BE starting games for this team.

Joakim Noah [6-11, 232] is the best C on the Bulls’ roster. HE SHOULD BE starting games for this team.

Only 2 of these players are the best Bulls at each of their respective positions, and who SHOULD BE starting games for this team.

In contrast to these perceptions of Gordon, Deng and Thomas …

Who are the Bulls’ best OG, SF and PF right now that SHOULD BE starting games for Chicago?

OG - Larry Hughes [6-5, 184] … by far their best Scorer/Defender with good Size
SF - Thabo Sefolosha [6-7, 215] … by far their best Defender & Rebounder with good Size
PF - Drew Gooden [6-10, 242] … by far their best Glue Guy with good Size.

What specific roles should Gordon, Deng and Thomas be playing instead for the Bulls right now?

Gordon SHOULD BE coming in off the bench, as a Score-first replacement for either Rose or Sefolosha, with the 2nd Unit.

Deng SHOULD BE coming in off the bench, as a Score-first replacement for Hughes, with the 2nd Unit.

Thomas SHOULD BE coming in off the bench, as an athletic Defender/Rebounder/High Energy replacement for Gooden, with the 2nd Unit … as should Aaron Gray [7-0, 270], a Low Post Presence replacement for Joakim Noah.

This would then give Chicago the following 9-Man Rotation:

STARTERS - Rose/PG + Sefolosha/Wing + Hughes/Wing + Gooden/Big + Noah/Big

KEY BENCH SUBS - Gordon/G + Deng/F + Thomas/Big + Gray/Big

RESERVES - Lindsey Hunter [PG, 6-2, 195], Kirk Hinrich [PG/OG, 6-3, 190] & Andres Nocioni [SF/PF, 6-7, 225]

EXTRAS - Cedric Simmons [6-9, 235] & Michael Ruffin [6-8, 248]

… which would do a better job of balancing out the individual strengths and weaknesses of the players on their overall roster [i.e. in terms of Rebounding, Defense and Shared Team Offense] and provide order for a squad that would then be good enough to qualify for the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this season.

When yours truly sees this type of observation being made repeatedly in on-line articles and commentary by traditional media sources, bloggers, and members of the Raptors’ fanbase …

——————————————–

Reasons for concern in Raptorville
The defenceless point guard

In his first year as starting point guard, Jose Calderon has kept up his efficient offensive ways, with a league-leading 4.18 assists for every turnover.

But on the other end of the floor, opposing point guards routinely light up Calderon. Tony Parker had 24 points and 10 assists against him. Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook had 19 points and eight assists. Devin Harris has torched Calderon in two decisive fourth quarters.

——————————————–

it indicates that there is still a significant level of basketball sophistication that has yet to be reached by many of the followers of this team.

The average Raptors fan has seen Jose Calderon play each and every game of his NBA career to-date; but this does NOT mean that said fan has a sound/accurate understanding of the game, in general, and how it should be played properly, concerning a player like the Raptors’ starting PG.

In reality … while Jose Calderon will never be confused for a top notch defensive player … he is far from being an atrocious defender at the PG position in the NBA.

——————————–

Specific Defensive Responsibilities of a PG for a team in the NBA

Situation #1. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. Pressure/contain the opposition’s PG, 1-on-1.

Situation #2. In a half-court situation when there is a Pick being set on him. Direct the opposition’s PG toward the Picker - in conjunction with the Picker’s defender - and then recover [by going either under or over, depending on the specific defensive tactic being used] to defend the PG on the dribble.

Situation #3. In a transition situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To contain the opposition’s PG on the dribble, 1-on-1.

Situation #4. In a transition situation when there is a Pick being set on him. To contain the opposition’s PG on the dribble, in conjunction with the Picker’s defender.

Situation #5. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To switch defensive responsibilities with a teammate who has the task of defending against an opposition player who plays a different position and is, therefore, usually a bigger player. 

Situation #6. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To initiate defensive double-teams and traps against opponent players who are very skilful at scoring either in the Low Post or on drives from the perimeter into the lane.

Situation #7. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him.  To rotate appropriately in order to provide the necessary help for a teammate who has been beaten on a dribble penetration move by an opponent.

Situation #8. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To rotate appropriately in order to provide the necessary help for a teammate who has had to rotate to assist a teammate that has been beaten on a dribble penetration move by an opponent, i.e. Help-the-helper.

Situation #9. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To close-out appropriately versus an opponent shooter, contesting the shot and containing that player on the dribble.

——————————–

When Jose Calderon is injury-free, the vast majority of his individual defensive breakdowns occur in Situation #2, as a result of a Big-on-Little Pick, where the main culprit isn’t actually Calderon at all but the Raptors’ Big involved in defending this specific action.

If Andrea Bargnani [who is the worst offender], Jermaine O’Neal [who is the 2nd worst offender], Chris Bosh [who is fairly good at this] and Kris Humphries [who is the most proficient at this], as a group, do a poor job defensively when:

i. Switching
ii. Showing & Recovering, or
iii. Trapping

in a 5/4-on-1 Pick scenario … and the opponent’s PG is able to dribble penetrate into the heart of the Raptor’s defense on a consistent basis, primarily, this is not the fault of the Dino’s PG.

When assessing Jose Calderon’s individual defense … encompassing those Nine Situational Categories … versus that provided by the other starting PGs across the League, this is what you should be able to see:

Defensive Rankings for Starting Point Guards in the NBA [Tue Dec 30 2008]