khandor’s sports blog

There has been a very good reason why the Detroit Pistons have under-achieved for the last few seasons:

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Will Bynum currently out of Pistons’ rotation

Pistons coach Lawrence Frank has chose to go with a three-guard lineup of Rodney Stuckey, Ben Gordon and Brandon Knight as of late. That has left Will Bynum out of the rotation.

Other than the final three minutes in the loss at Boston on Dec. 30, Bynum has not played in the Pistons last three games.

“It’s hard,” Frank said. “Will’s a very, very good player. He’s obviously a guy we see as a game changer, especially on the offensive end. Someone who … is one of our better pick-and-roll players. But it’s hard to play three point guards, especially cause outside of Rodney our guards are small.

“Will’s definitely going to have his day in the sun. He’s going to help us win games, but right now this is where we’re at.

“Especially with a new coach and a new system the one thing I’ve said to the group and I also say to myself is, ‘Flexibility.’ We don’t have all the answers right now. Will we feel is part of the solution. We’ll just see how it all fits.”

Bynum played nearly 13 minutes in the season opener, finishing with six points on 1 for 5 shooting, three assists, three rebounds and two turnovers. Bynum did not play in the home opener against Cleveland, played the final 3:25 at Boston on Dec. 30 and did not play in the Pistons win over Indiana on New Year’s Eve.

Even though Bynum hasn’t been playing, Frank still feels he can be a part of the team’s success.

“Even when you’re not playing you can contribute and part of that is being a good teammate, being involved, especially as a point guard you should really be engaged in the game,” Frank said. “Everyone on this level can play. A lot of it is about opportunity and combinations on the floor. What may be your lineup today could be different a week from now, could be different a month from now. Really the guys play determines how much they do or do not play.

“(With) Will, it’s not a lack of confidence, a lack of faith, a lack of belief or lack of ability. It’s just we have small guards and we’re not a good rebounding team. Defensive rebounding takes precedent and we’ll go from there. But Will will have his day.”

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and, the fact is … despite what certain so-called “stats gurus” might like to perpetuate throughout the blogosphere:

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Detroit Pistons Are Who We Thought They Were

Why the Pistons are Misbehaving

John Kuester was not the problem: Part 1

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… it’s had absolutely nothing to do with the overall “poor quality” of the players on their roster.

PS. Team Cohesion is a much bigger part of success and failure in the NBA than most observers understand, and by keeping Will Bynum completely out of the Pistons’ rotation … something which yours truly first recommended to Pistons fans, back in the summer of 2009, in a now-defunct thread concerning the proper use of Rodney Stuckey, Richard Hamilton, Ben Gordon and Will Bynum, at a fan-based site named “Detroit Bad Boys” … Lawrence Frank is demonstrating that he actually knows what he’s doing, as a competent NBA-level head coach, unlike John Kuester.

PPS. Btw … He who laughs last, laughs best.

Here is the “stats-based” take, from David Berri and Andres Alvarez:

Here is the “on-court basketball effects” take, from yours truly:

You are free to decide for yourself which is a more accurate appraisal of what happened to the Blazers’ playoff chances this season.

For those who like to cite the work of stats gurus:

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What if your team Lost its Leading Scorer?

In reading the table, negative numbers in the last column indicate the team will be worse without their leading scorer.  For 19 teams, this is the outcome indicated by Wins Produced.  And for four teams – Memphis (Zach Randolph is the leading scorer), Miami, Orlando, and Minnesota – the decline if the leading scorer was replaced by an average player is more than ten games.

The exact opposite story is told for the Toronto Raptors.  If Andrea Bargnani was replaced by an average player, the Raptors would be expected to improve by more than ten wins.

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Until the Raptors’ management team [i.e. Bryan Colangelo, Maurizio Gherardini and Marc Eversley, etc.] truly understands the negative ramifications of having a player like Andrea Bargnani [C], as their franchise-best, everything else – e.g. Where Toronto will select in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery? Or, Who should be Toronto’s head coach? Or, Who should be Toronto’s starting PG? etc. – is virtually meaningless.

Early today, the New York Knicks waived Corey Brewer/SF and claimed Derrick Brown/SF-PF off waivers … which means that other teams in the NBA with W-L records that are worse than New York’s also had a chance to add either player to their rosters, if they wished to do so.

Approximately 2 weeks ago, Prof. David Berri explained on his blog that he thinks one of the main problems which the Raptors have faced during Bryan Colangelo’s tenure as GM is accurate player evaluations, based on his own “Wins Produced” metric.

With this possibility in-mind …

You are cordially invited to provide your own personal rankings [i.e. from Nos. 1-7] for the following list of players:

DeMar DeRozan [Toronto Raptors]
James Johnson [Toronto Raptors]
Sonny Weems [Toronto Raptors]
Linas Kleiza [Toronto Raptors]
Julian Wright [Toronto Raptors]
Derrick Brown [New York Knicks; waived by the Bobcats]
Corey Brewer [?; waived by the Knicks]

each of whom the Raptors – currently performing as one the worst defensive teams in the entire NBA – had the opportunity to, either, add or delete from their roster over the course of the last 7 days …

based on which one is the best basketball player, overall, when considering all three [3] main phases of the game [i.e. Offense, Defense and Rebounding].

In all likelihood, regular visitors to this space, already know the answer to this question, from the perspective of yours truly.

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:redro esrever ni REWSNA ehT [t'nod uoy esac ni tsuJ]

GO/smeeW ynnoS 7 ,FS/nosnhoJ semaJ 6 ,FS-GP/thgirW nailuJ 5 ,FS-FP/azielK saniL 4 ,GO/nazoReD raMeD 3 ,FS/rewerB yeroC 2 , FP-FS/nworB kcirreD 1 (-:

A prime example of the reason most NBA aficionados should pay little attention to what is said by different “stats gurus” when it comes to understanding properly how the game actually works …

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Do the Pistons need better coaching 

To quickly summarize… Michael Leeds, Eva Marikova Leeds, Michael Mondello, and I examined 30 years of player performance data.  Our study indicated that of the 62 NBA coaches we examined, more than 75% had no statistically significant impact on player performance.  In other words, most NBA coaches fail to systematically alter the productivity of the players they are given to lead.

And that suggests the problems the Pistons are having this year are not about coaching or leadership. 

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If you try to follow the actual logic involved with this type of fraudulent thinking about the game of basketball it looks something like this:

Observation #1
75% of the NBA coaches involved with this study showed no significant impact on player performance.

Observation #2
Most NBA coaches involved with this study failed to systematically alter the productivity of their players.

Conclusion
Observation #1 and #2 suggests that the Pistons’ problems this season are somehow NOT rooted in the performance/ability of their coach, or the type of leadership which he has provided, thus far.

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Now … based strictly on the logic involved with these two straight-forward observations, and the conclusion drawn by the writer of these words, Professor David Berri … the $64,000 question is:

Q1. Does this make sense to you? 

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Well … if you happen to be someone who thinks in a logical way, then … the accurate answer is:

A1. No, unfortunately, it does NOT.

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As an alternative way of thinking …

Perhaps THIS will make sense to you, instead:

Observation #1
75% of NBA coaches involved with this study had no significant impact on player performance.

Observation #2
Most [e.g. 75%-?] of the NBA coaches involved with this study failed to systemmatically alter the performance of their players.

Observation #3
The 25% of NBA coaches that actually fall into the category of those who DO have a significant impact on player performance are amongst “the best” coaches in the league, on an annual basis. 

Observation #4
75% [or more] of NBA teams are coached by individuals who actually fall into the category of those who have NO significant impact on player performance.

Observation #5
The Detroit Pistons won 27 games last season with John Kuester as their head coach and failed to qualify for the playoffs for the first time in the last decade.

Observation #6
This season the Detroit Pistons have failed to win a single game with John Kuester as their head coach … having also returned a high percentage of their player personnel from the 2009-2010 season.

Conclusion
Based solely on the data involved with the actual study referenced and conducted by Professor Berri, et al., there is zero [i.e. "0"] tangible evidence that the Detroit Pistons’ problems, while working under John Kuester, are NOT related to HIS coaching and leadership, as an individual who may, in fact, fall into the category of NBA coaches [e.g. 75%-?] with no significant impact on player performance … in sharp contrast to those relative few “elite level” NBA coaches [e.g. 25%-?] who DO have the ability to systematically alter [i.e. improve] the performance of their players.  

Okay, here’s a simple question for you to give your own answer to … and, perhaps, discuss further in the comments section, if you’re so inclined. 

If Red Auerbach - the legendary, now deceased, GM for the Boston Celtics - was in charge of running the Chicago Bulls, for this season and the foreseeable future …

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Proposed Trade [i.e. which appears to be doable, as of Dec 16, 2010, according to ESPN's NBA Trade Machine]

To Chicago Bulls:

1 Carmelo Anthony, SF/PF [$17.15 M/yr];

and,

To Denver Nuggets:

1 Luol Deng, SF [$11.35 M/yr],
2 Ronnie Brewer, SF/OG [$4.75 M/yr],
3 Kurt Thomas, PF [$1.80 M/yr], and
4 A future 1st Round Draft Pick.

Yes, or No?

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Related:

What Carmelo Anthony Might Have Cost the Bulls (besides money)

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PS. FWIW … from the perspective of yours truly, the correct answer to this question is an unmitigated, “Yes, he would, in less time than a single heart-beat.”

There has considerable debate in the on-line hoops community recently, regarding the actual worth of Carmelo Anthony/SF-PF, as a supposed “top drawer” NBA player.

Examining this cacophony of mostly nonsense, perhaps, no other single article stands out as much as this one:

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What Carmelo Anthony Might Have Cost the Bulls (besides money)

Let me close by noting an article on Red Auerbach by Beckley Mason.  One suspects — after reading this article — that Auerbach wouldn’t have been fooled by Carmelo Anthony.  Consider the following quote (from something I posted three years ago and very similar to what Mason noted):

Auerbach said that the Celtics represent a philosophy that in its simplest form maintains that victory belongs to the team. “Individual honors are nice, but no Celtic has ever gone out of his way to achieve them,” he said. “We have never had the league’s top scorer. In fact, we won seven league championships without placing even one among the league’s top 10 scorers. Our pride was never rooted in statistics.”

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when it comes to representing accurately the practical dilemma associated with an over-reliance on “statistical” information in the proper evaluation of what is truly important in a NBA game, in the first place.

The only meaningful question which remains, at this point, is this:

Q1. Do you think David Berri actually understands the irony involved with his use of the final 7 words of Red Auerbach’s cited quotation? … in a mostly fruit-less attempt to be-little the skill-set of a stalwart scorer/player like Carmelo Anthony.

A1. FWIW, yours truly is of the belief that he actually does not.

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PS. IMO, if Red Auerbach was in charge of the Chicago Bulls today … although he would have no interest in trading Luol Deng/SF + Joakim Noah/C, straight-up for Carmelo Anthony/SF/PF, at this time … he would, in fact, have no qualms, whatsoever, in trading a slightly different package of Luol Deng/SF [$11.3 M] + Ronnie Brewer/OG-SF [$4.7 M] + Kurt Thomas/PF [$1.8 M] + a future 1st Round Draft, to the Denver Nuggets, in exchange for Melo [$17.1 M] … on Dec 16, 2010, after the various trade restrictions on a few of these specific players will have expired.

If you’ve taken the time to read a good portion of what’s been published on this blog to-date, then, you are already familiar with a few simple “facts” about the game of basketball:

[for example]

- it is comprised of 3 distinct main phases, i.e. Defense, Rebounding and Offense

- the 1 of these 3 phases which is the least well-understood, by “fans” and other so-called “expert observers” is Rebounding … followed by Defense … primarily, due to its “central” role and the way it influences the character of an elite level team

- basketball is, fundamentally, a “team” game … in which major success and failure [i.e. winning and losing the championship] are determined, in large part, by the highly specific strengths and weaknesses of the “individual” players and their ability to work “in concert” against a particular opponent

- while statistics, in general, are a terrific tool to help one understand how the game actually works, in isolation, they are not a wholly accurate reflection of reality and, at all times, need to be evaluated critically in the appropriate context

- an examination of highly specific anecdotal evidence is a gateway to developing an accurate understanding of the way in which a championship-winning team operates that is separate and distinct from its competition 

- putting an elite level team together properly is akin to “composing a virtuoso work of art” … moreso, than simplistically “painting by the numbers”

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To wit:

[this is the specific comment which was just submitted by yours truly at the Wages of Wins Journal]

Another Look at Team USA in 2010

Hmmm …

If someone could take the time to explain the reason the previous comment which I left in this thread was removed, it would be appreciated.

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In the interim, let’s try again.

It is a mistake in basketball judgment to think that keeping the 12 players with the highest WP48 numbers is necessarily the best way to construct a championship-winning basketball “team”.

Just because Gerald Wallace’s WP48 number … which [in fact] “fails to reflect a picture of reality” [according to a respected commentor [sic] on this site like Tom Mandel] … is substantially higher than Rudy Gay’s does not mean that simply “replacing Gay with Wallace” is the better way to go, in this case, i.e. with this specific group of players, their expected opposition, and the relatively large group of [at least, somewhat redundant] PG’s still on the active roster [i.e. Curry, Billups, Rondo, Rose and Westbrook], when compared with the sheer number of wing players [i.e. combo OG/SF/PF] with good size, strength, relative quickness – at their respective positions – and the ability to: i. defend, ii. rebound, iii. shoot the ball efficiently from distance, and iv. be high volume scorers, e.g. like Iguodala, Gay and Durant].

When you dissect how a championship-winning team is actually put together, what you will find is that rarely – if ever – is it simply a conglomeration of the 12 players with the highest available WP48 numbers [e.g. Was Charles Barkley a member of the 1984 team? or, Was Isiah Thomas a member of the original Dream Team?] And, the exact reasons for this are rarely – if ever – rooted in the way these specific players performed in lead-up public scrimmage situations.

Unfortunately, numeric-based analysis of basketball which reads like this is what can create a poor image overall for “stats” gurus, in the eyes of elite level coaches the world over.

[Hopefully this comment meets with your approval.]

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Enjoy!

For the benefit of those of you playing along at home …

This is what the Final Results would look like, if yours truly had been invited to participate in this year’s ‘exclusive’ NBA Playoffs handicapping event:

TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown Contest 2010

Participants

Mrs. Abbott – Henry’s mother [Mom]

Prof. David Berri – Wages of Wins Journal

John Hollinger – ESPN NBA Insider

Stephen Ilardi – Adjusted Plus/Minus

Jeffrey Ma – Bringing Down The House/21

Neil Paine – Basketball Reference Blog

Kevin Pelton – Basketball Prospectus

Haralabos Voulgaris – Former professional gambler

khandor – Sports Consultant

Correct Team Selected = 5 points

Correct Games Number Selected = 2 additional points 
 

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khandor’s Individual Series Selections

1st Round
WINNERS: Cleveland/#1, Orlando/#2, Atlanta/#3, Boston/#4, Los Angeles/#5, San Antonio/#6, Phoenix/#7 and Utah/#8
LOSERS: Zero/#0

2nd Round
WINNERS: Orlando/#9, Los Angeles/#10
LOSERS: Cleveland/#1 and San Antonio/#2

3rd Round
WINNERS: Los Angeles/#11
LOSERS: Orlando/#3

Finals
WINNER: Los Angeles/#12

Bold - Correct game number call.

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Congratulations to Jeffrey Ma for emerging victorious in this year’s ‘official’ contest!

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PS. For those who would like to verify the individual series selections made by Khandor’s Sports Service [KSS], please feel free to contact Prof. Berri, directly, as he was, in fact, sent each of those specific calls, via email, prior to the start of each round. Prof. Berri is currently working at Southern Utah University and his email address is available to the public at their web site.

In response to a most interesting article by David Berri …

The Impact of Losing Greg Oden
The primary purpose of this post was to highlight how good Oden had played this season (to see how good, please read the post).  Certainly it’s possible that the Blazers could overcome this loss.  But it seems fairly likely that Portland’s season is not going to go quite as well as I thought earlier this year. 

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1. The Blazers were NEVER going to be the best team in the West this season.

2. The Blazers’ overall development arc, as “one of the best teams in the West”, will involve a wider sweep than just 2 or 3 seasons.

3. The problems with this year’s Blazers [at least, so far] this season were not rooted in the play of Greg Oden but in the following list of developments from the last 6 months:

i. Unnecessarily soliciting the services of Hedo Turkoglu [SF/Orlando who eventually signed with Toronto as an UFA], which upset/disrupted the flow they had been developing with Travis Outlaw [PF-SF] and Rudy Fernandez [SF-OG-PG];

ii. Unnecessarily signing a superfluous, ball-dominating PG, like Andre Miller [as an UFA/Philadelphia];

iii. The protracted contract extension negotiations with Brandon Roy [OG-PG-SF] and LaMarcus Aldridge [PF-C]; and,

iv. Re-integrating Martell Webster [OG-SF], a top 8 player, returning from an injury-lost season, into their everyday rotation.

v. The injury sufferred by Nicolas Batum [SF-OG], a long and athletic player who can Defend and Rebound at his specific positions;

vi. The injury sufferred by Travis Outlaw [PF-SF], an under-sized but very versatile and effective player who can: A. take/make big [jump] shots [catch & shoots, plus pull-ups] in the 4th quarter; B. Defend, at the #3/SF or #4/PF with good length and athleticism; and, C. Rebound, at the #/SF or #4/PF position with good length and athleticism.

vii. The long term effects of the “health scare” which their owner, Paul Allen, had last season, that artificially “pushed forward” the team’s perceived “development arc” this past summer in a way which their team was unprepared to cope with at this time … i.e. trying to “win now [!]” instead of gradually continuing their “incremental build-up” over an extended number of years [5-7?].

If Kevin Pritchard truly understands what’s been happening with his squad this season, from a team-building standpoint, then, what he’ll do now is:

I. Not try to “replace” Oden from outside his current group of players;

II. Continue to repair their internal relationships with Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Fernandez;

III. Move Andre Miller for another better-fitting asset, asap;

IV. Allow his group of Core Players to continue to grow together organically … while integrating this off-season’s main additions from the 2009 NBA Draft, i.e. Dante Cunningham [PF-SF], Patrick Mills [PG] and Jeff Pendergraph [PF].

If Kevin Pritchard does things things and then simply waits on the eventual return of Greg Oden … what he’ll have on his hands, 2 seasons from now, is a fully grown team that is ready, willing and able to challenge the Lakers, as the No. 1 outfit in the West, just as Kobe Bryant’s “development arc” is finally beginning to flow downwards its end-point.

On the other hand …

If Kevin Pritchard does not understand these things about the state of his own team, then, what he’ll do instead is “continue to try and rush” the Blazers through this key stage of their “upward arc” … which involves “learning how to lose before learning how to win”, just like Jordan’ Bulls and Zeke’s Pistons and Hakeem’s Rockets and Robinson’s [and Duncan’s] Spurs and Shaq/Kobe’s Lakers each went through before emerging as multiple-time league champions … then what he’ll do is make the WRONG MOVE at the WRONG TIME and end up blowing this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity which has come his way in Portland, i.e. to construct one of the NBA’s all-time great franchises with the likes of [youngsters] Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, Jerryd Bayless, Dante Cunningham, Patrick Mills, Jeff Prendergraph and [a healthy] GREG ODEN, plus [oldsters] Joel Przybilla [C], Steve Blake [PG] and Juwan Howard [PF].

The ball is in Kevin Pritchard’s court.

For the Blazers’ sake, it’s important that he doesn’t drop it.

PS. FWIW … Please know that ”curses” do not exist in pro sports. Poor decision-making skills – e.g. bringing injured players back too soon, acquiring ill-fitting players, trying to speed up the development process, etc. - on the other hand, can be found in abundance.

Related:

Latest injury will derail Oden for good

Where to now for Portland?

Blazers confirm Oden’s season is over

Blazers take another small step forward