khandor’s sports blog

MISSING OUT ON LONG TERM GAIN WHILE ACHIEVING SHORT TERM OBJECTIVES

As of Friday, November 19, 2010 the Raptors’ W-L Record was 4-9/.308, which placed them firmly in the bottom section of the Eastern Conference Standings.

On the heels of consecutive home court victories, over the Philadelphia 76ers and the Houston Rockets, the Raptors then made 2 related trades on Saturday, November 20, 2010, which saw them acquire Jerryd Bayless [PG] and Peja Stojakovic [SF], from the New Orleans Hornets, in exchange for Jarrett Jack [PG], David Andersen [C] and Marcus Banks [PG].

On Sunday, November 21, 2010 the Raptors defeated the visiting Boston Celtics [102-101].

On Wednesday, Novmeber 24, 2010 the Raptors defeated the visiting Philadelphia 76ers, once again, to extend their winning streak to 4 games.

On Friday, November 26, 2010 the Raptors were defeated by the Celtics [101-110], in Boston; while, simultaneously, Ed Davis [PF] was making his debut with the Erie Bayhawks of the NBA’s D-League. Also, it was during this game that Reggie Evans [PF] was lost to injury with a broken foot.

On Sunday, November 28, 2010 the Raptors were resoundingly defeated at the ACC by the visiting Atlanta Hawks; while, simultaneously, Ed Davis was playing his 2nd game with the Bayhawks [vs the Fort Wayne Mad Ants].

Then, in last night’s game, against Washington [at the ACC], the Raptors routed the last place Wizards [127-108] … with both Jerryd Bayless and Ed Davis in their line-up for the first time this season.

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While there have been plenty of so-called “NBA Analysts/Experts” – i.e. including, both, “stats gurus” and non-”stats gurus”- voice their opinion, thus far this season, that the Raptors might have one of the worst rosters in the entire league and, as a result, would most likely finish with one of the worst W-L records, yours truly has not been one of them.

Instead, what has been said in this corner is that:

* In an effort to obtain the rights to one of the Top 3 Selections in the 2011 NBA Draft, what the Raptors should do this season is maintain the status quo, i.e. by retaining the roster that began the 2010-2011 regular season, which includes making no significant trades, keeping Reggie Evans in their regular rotation and keeping Ed Davis out of their line-up for a 12 month period from the date of his initial torn meniscus.

By following this specific course of action, this particular season, the Raptors would give themselves the best opportunity possible to add a legitimate “Top 3 Player” to their future roster which, in turn, would then allow them to make a gradual climb up the standings in the Eastern Conference … over a period of consecutive years … with the ultimate destination being the upper echelon [i.e. Top 4] and achieving full-blown status as a perennial contender for the League Championship.

OTOH …

* If what the Raptors are really trying to do this season is [i] improve their chances of making the playoffs and [ii] sustain their current status as a “competitive” but far-from-top-notch franchise in the middle section of NBA that [iii] achieves an annual profit for its ownership group, then, what the Raptors should do this year is not maintain the status quo, i.e. by upgrading the roster which began the 2010-2011 regular season, which includes making a significant trade, or two, removing Reggie Evans from the regular rotation and replacing him with Ed Davis.

By following this specific course of action, this particular season, the Raptors would give themselves the best opportunity to attain their 3 principal short term objectives, while also ensuring that they make negligible progress towards the long term goal of reaching the upper echelon in the Eastern Conference [i.e. Top 4] and achieving full-blown status as a perennial contender for the League Championship.

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While some active participants in the blogosphere have expressed their opinion that the acquisitions of Bayless and Stojakovic would most likely “downgrade” the Raptors’ current roster, yours truly has made the observation that this would, in fact, not be the case at all … and that, in fact, these changes would most likely bring about the opposite effect for Toronto this season.

For the remainder of this season it should prove to be very interesting to keep track of how Toronto actually performs in each of the following situational categories:

and what the eventual effects will be on their team’s overall development during the course of the next several seasons.

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“Luck is the residue of design.” – Branch Rickey

Comment contributor Mike D has posited an interesting question, in response to yesterday’s blog entry about whether or not the Raptors have actually upgraded the NBA talent level on their current roster:

What was Bryan Colangelo’s primary objective when he traded Jarrett Jack [PG/OG], David Andersen [C] and Marcus Banks [PG] to New Orleans, in exchange for Peja Stojakovic [SF/OG] and Jerryd Bayless [PG/OG]?

Either:

PROPOSITION A – To create increased financial flexibility for the team, while moving forward, in order to allow the younger players on the roster to develop further and improve with an eye fixed firmly on the future prospects for major on-court success, even if it means fielding a lesser talented team this season which will likely finish lower in the Eastern Conference standings than it would have otherwise. Such a “lesser-talented” team would, therefore, be more likely to secure the future rights to a high [i.e. Top 3 Selection] draft pick in the NBA’s 2011 Lottery.

or,

PROPOSITION B – To create a better team for this season with an upgraded level of NBA talent that is actually more competitive with the other middle echelon teams in the Eastern Conference and, quite possibly, more capable of qualifying for one of the bottom 3 seeds in the playoffs [i.e. No. 6, 7 or 8] – if this new edition performs up to its maximum capacity - while still providing a high degree of future financial flexibility for MLSE, should this squad actually fail to accomplish this modest on-court task. Such a “more-talented” team would, therefore, be less likely to secure the future rights to a high [i.e. Top 3 Selection] draft pick in the NBA’s 2011 Lottery.

As was indicated in yesterday’s blog entry, the belief of this corner is that PROPOSITION B was most likely at the root of Bryan Colangelo’s motivation to complete these recent trades for the Raptors.

What tangible evidence [or proof] might possibly exist in support of this specific notion?

If the Raptors, subsequently, decide to:

1. Add a veteran Center to their roster later on this season … e.g. someone like Erick Dampier, who had been available, as an unrestricted free agent until yesterday, before signing with the Miami Heat … either, via trade or free agency;

2. Use Leandro Barbosa as their primary back-up PG, behind Jose Calderon … and, ahead of Jerryd Bayless;

3. Use Peja Stojakovic as their primary perimeter shooter coming off the bench at the wing position … in conjunction with their other younger wing players, i.e. Sonny Weems, DeMar DeRozan, Linas Kleiza, Julian Wright and, now, Jerryd Bayless, rather than exclusively in arrears of them;

and,

4. Use Ed Davis [PF/C] for major minutes off the bench;

then, it will be a solid indication that PROPOSITION B may well have been the prime motivation for Bryan Colangelo, since this new edition of the Raptors would then be more likely to win a higher percentage of their remaining games this season, than they would have been if:

i. These two trades were never made, in the first place;

and/or,

ii. A. Jerryd Bayless is used as their primary back-up PG, instead of Leandro Barbosa;

ii. B. Peja Stojakovic is used only as a last resort, coming deep off their bench behind all of their younger wing players;

ii. C. Ed Davis [PF, 1st-yr] is held out of the team’s line-up for the balance of the 2010-2011 season, in order to completely rehabilitate his torn meniscus injury suffered during the pre-season;

and,

ii. D. No veteran Center is added to the roster.

In addition to what’s been written here the last two days … concerning these two trades by the Raptors … these are two specific comments which were left by yours truly last night at two other Raptors-related blogs:

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[at Tim W's "The Picket Fence"]

Using Jose Calderon as the starting PG [30+ MPG] for the Raptors, instantaneously makes them a better team than they were with Jarrett Jack in that same role with Calderon coming off the bench for only 20+ MPG.

As does using Barbosa as the primary back-up PG, in arrears of Calderon.

If the Raptors decide to use Bayless as their primary back-up PG, in arrears of Calderon … rather than Barbosa … then, the current Raptors team will actually be worse off than they were when Jack was “the starter” and Calderon his primary “back-up”.

How Bayless actually gets used by the Raptors for the rest of this season will tell a great deal about the intent of Bryan Colangelo when these two trades were made.

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[at Devin Dignam's "Nbeh?"]

The Raptors W-L Record/Win% prior to completing these two trades was 4-9/.308.

It will now be very interesting to see how these numbers will compare to their W-L Record/Win% for the remainder of the season.

In contrast to what it says here, IMO, these two trades will actually increase the likelihood of the Raptors failing to finish in one of the bottom two positions in the Eastern Conference standings this season … which, in turn, will mean that they will not be picking in one of the top three positions in the 2011 NBA Draft, when franchise-changing players like Harrison Barnes [SF] and, possibly, Kyrie Irving [PG] are scheduled to be available.

When it comes to projecting forward … as opposed to looking backwards … it’s amazing just how mis-guided some so-called ‘stats-based’ basketball analyses can actually turn out to be.

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In summary …

If PROPOSITION A is actually correct, what you should expect to see from the Raptors the rest of this season is:

- Jerryd Bayless being used as their primary back-up PG, not Leandro Barbosa
- Peja Stojakovic not being used very much, if at all
- Ed Davis not being used a significant number of minutes
- No veteran back-up Center being added to the roster AND
- The team winning LESS-THAN .308 of its remaining games this year … since Jerryd Bayless and Peja Stojakovic are inferior players compared to Jarrett Jack, David Andersen and Marcus Banks. 

However, if PROPOSITION B is actually correct, what you should expect to see from the Raptors is:

- Leandro Barbosa being used as their primary back-up PG, not Jerryd Bayless
- Peja Stojakovic being used quite a bit, as their best 3PT-shooter
- Ed Davis being used a significant number of minutes, as their best interior shot-blocker and post scorer 
- A veteran back-up Center being added to the roster AND
- The team winning MORE-THAN .308 of its remaining games this year … since:

I. Jose Calderon is a more effective Starting PG - who makes each of his teammates into more effective players at the offensive end of the floor - compared to Jarrett Jack;

II. Leandro Barbosa is a more effective back-up PG – who makes each of his teammates into more effective players at the offensive end of the floor – compared to Jerryd Bayless [who has now been traded 3 times, since entering the NBA in the 2008 NBA Draft, by 3 different organizations - i.e. Indiana, Portland and New Orleans - each of which was looking to fill a void at the PG position, when it first acquired him, and is now in a better position to succeed than Toronto];

III. Peja Stojakovic is a more effective 3PT-shooter than Jarrett Jack, David Andersen and Marcus Banks;

and,

IV. Ed Davis is a more effective interior shot-blocker, and post scorer, than David Andersen.

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It is also interesting to note that one consistent aspect of Bryan Colangelo’s tenure with the Raptors has been his reluctance to make a full commitment to the building-up this franchise from “square one”, gradually over a number of years. Instead, what he has shown is his interest in always “hedging his bets”, in the name of creating/maintaining “increased financial flexibility” for MLSE going forward. 

When Toronto’s basketball brain-trust made the decision to complete the two trades which they made this past weekend that obtained the following 2 players:

Jerryd Bayless [PG/OG] and Peja Stojakovic [SF]

in exchange for the following 3 players:

Jarrett Jack [PG/OG], David Andersen [C] and Marcus Banks [PG]

it accomplished several inter-related things:

1. Opened up a roster spot that will probably be used to sign Erick Dampier [C];

2. Solidified Jose Calderon’s role with this year’s squad, as the Starting PG;

3. Opened up increased playing time for the No. 9 [overall] Selection from the 2010 NBA Draft – i.e. Ed Davis [PF-C] - who is due to re-join their active roster shortly after completing his rehabilitation assignment to the D-League;

4. Improved their chances of competing for a lower tier playoff spot in the Eastern Conference [i.e. No. 6, No. 7 and No. 8] this season;

5. Reduced their chances of finishing in the basement of the Eastern Conference this season;

and,

6. Effectively eliminated their opportunity to obtain Harrison Barnes [G/F, 6-8, 210], as a franchise-changing player who will be available this summer … as a likely Top 3 Selection in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery.

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This is what the NBA Standings look like today, in the aftermath of yesterday’s thrilling victory by the Raptors [5-9/.357, T-12th] over the visiting Celtics [9-4/.692, 2nd];

and, this – i.e. please click on the link - is a comparative evaluation of the rosters for the different teams in the East that should now be able to effectively compete for the last 3 playoff spots this year, as the regular season continues to unfold.

Where the Raptors once had a legitimate chance to obtain a dominant player in next summer’s NBA Draft Lottery, today, this is no longer the case.

Unfortunately …

Personnel moves like these are yet more instances of this franchise opting for a “short term” boost in on-court performance with increased financial flexibility, rather than following a detailed, costly and highly integrated “long term” plan which is designed to gradually improve the organization over a period of years, while also increasing their opportunity to achieve major success, as one of the authentic dominant teams in the NBA.

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Update:

Please see this specific blog entry - from Tuesday, November 24, 2010 - for a more expansive version of why these two trades from this past weekend have improved the NBA talent level on the Raptors’ current – and future – roster this season. 

Last year, the specific talk coming from Raptors training camp was about the team’s new over-riding Defensive Philosophy, referred to as, “Protecting the House,” in an all-out effort to improve their Defensive FG%. 

Unfortunately, last year’s Raptors then finished the 2009-2010 season as one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

Now, during this year’s training camp, this is what is currently being said about the Raptors Point of Emphasis, defensively, for the coming season:

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Raptors focus on fine art of defence

It is a delicate balance the Raptors seek as they try to improve the weakest aspect of their game.

They have to teach aggression tempered with intelligence. Quickness rather than speed.

They need continuity from a group of relative strangers and a dedication to a cause that brings with it little glory.

Easy? Not so much, but if they don’t shore up their defence and find a system that suits their personnel, any chance of being even a mildly surprising team in the coming NBA season is gone out the window.

It is the topic as training camp drones on, the one thing that coach Jay Triano and his assistants are more worried about than any other.

“One, you’ve got a number of new guys who are going to be in the rotation so that’s immediately a challenge,” said assistant coach P.J. Carlesimo. “Two, you don’t have a lot of continuity. Even though you could say it’s Jay’s third year, it’s at least a second, if not a third, different roster so it’s not like he’s had two years to install his system and the same guys are playing his system.

“The good news is you have some young guys with some quickness and enthusiasm. The bad news is you have young guys and inexperienced guys.”

What the Raptors want to do defensively sounds so simple: They want to apply pressure as much as possible, take away outside shots, force turnovers and score off their defence.

“I’d say we’re more aggressive,” said Triano. “Last year we had a tendency to sit on boxes (in the low post) and elbows (at the top of the free-throw lane) and protect the paint and the house and all that. This year, we’re just out and guarding guys.”

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1. Pressure the ball.

and,

2. Create more turnovers.

Hmmm …

Simple to do, perhaps … if you have enough of the right type of players on your roster, in the first place.

When you actually compare the individual defensive ability of the 15 players on the present roster for the Raptors to the group which ended the 2009-2010 campaign, what you get looks something like this:

Those who think the Team Defensive woes of the 2009-2010 Toronto Raptors will be cured by this year’s squad making a renewed commitment to ”applying increased ball pressure”, over the course of an 82-game regular season are, quite simply, unfamiliar with the way in which the NBA actually works:

General Truths About the NBA Game, From a Defensive Perspective:

1. “Less experienced” players are not superior Individual or Team defenders, in comparison with veteran players.

2. “Faster” players do not necessarily prove to be superior Individual or Team defenders, in comparison with slower players.

3. Authentic “high end” Team Defensive ability stems, primarily, from just 2 sources:

i. Having enough rotational players whose specific WEAKNESS does not originate in their own Individual and/or Team defensive game;

 and,

ii. A head coach’s PERSONAL COMMITMENT TO EXCELLENCE, on the defensive side of the floor, based upon the successful implementation/execution of sound and highly integrated strategic and/or tactical concepts. [NOTE: Please recognize the plural form of the final word in this last sentence.]

When a team is atrocious on the defensive side of the ball, however, it does not become significantly better by:

while retaining non defensive stalwarts like:

in their existing roles, in the regular rotation, AND retaining the same head coach who was responsible for the implementation of the Defensive Philosophy which was used the previous season, even if the nature of THAT specific philosophy is supposedly going to change for the new campaign.

Scoring enough points to win games … against high end competition … has not been a major problem for the Raptors during the last several seasons. Preventing high end opponents from doing likewise, however, has consistently been one of the Dinos main problems.

With the set of players, coaches, and GM – i.e. who is responsible for putting together the roster – currently in place for this team, do not expect this reality to change this season.    

While certain basketball “stats gurus” have projected the Raptors to finish at the very bottom of the Eastern Conference this season, given the current configuration of their roster …

2010-2011 Forecast: Toronto Raptors [Insider access required]

ESPN Insider: Hollinger’s Raptors Outlook

Turkoglu is gone, so is “Ball”

other NBA observers actually think that Toronto … sans:

1 Chris Bosh [C/PF]
2 Hedo Turkoglu [PF/SF]
3 Antoine Wright [SF/OG]
4 Marco Belinelli [OG/PG]
5 Rasho Nesterovic [C], and
6 Patrick O’Bryant

may not be that bad this season, with the arrival of 7 new players:

1 Ed Davis [PF, injured]
2 Solomon Alabi [C]
3 Linas Kleiza [SF/PF]
4 Leandro Barbosa [OG/PG]
5 David Andersen [C]
6 Julian Wright [SF], and
7 Ronald Dupree [SF, training camp invite]

and, the continued growth and development of still youngish hold-overs like:

9 Andrea Bargnani [C/PF]
10 DeMar DeRozan [OG/SF]
11 Sonny Weems [OG/SF]
12 Amir Johnson [PF], and
13 Joey Dorsey [PF],

especially, if/when they decide to use their TPE …

2010-2011 NBA Season Preview: Toronto Raptors.

This corner, however, is not in agreement with either of these two “extreme positions”, as being the most likely outcome for the Dinos this season.

When you examine how each of the current Eastern Conference rosters look, in comparison with the Raptors, on an individual-by-individual basis:

WHERE THE RAPTORS ARE MOST LIKELY TO FINISH THIS SEASON, BASED UPON AN INDIVIDUAL-BY-INDIVIDUAL MATCH-UP ASSESSMENT OF TEAM ROSTERS

what you should be able to see is that there are 4 teams, in addition to the Raptors, that should all be in the mix for positions #11 thru #15 in the Final Standings this season.

As always, where these mid-to-lower tier teams will actual finish … as far as exact win and loss totals are concerned … will actually be determined, in large part, by specific factors which are beyond their own control, including, for example:

i. Injuries;
ii. Unforeseen, anomalous circumstances [e.g. suspensions or arrests, etc.]; and,
iii. Blind [either, good or bad] luck.   

Last night’s game between the Houston Rockets and the Toronto Raptors served as an interesting benchmark for the on-going development of these two teams.

Toronto Raptors 92
HOUSTON ROCKETS 116

Complete Game Summary 

At the moment:

Toronto is 31-28/.525, 2nd in the Atlantic Division, and 5th in the Eastern Conference; while, Houston is 30-29/.508, 3rd in the Southwest Division, and 9th in the Western Conference.

Both teams played last night’s game without several key players in their respective line-ups, due to a variety of physical ailments/injuries:

Toronto
1. Chris Bosh/PF-C, leg injury [day-to-day] 
2. Jose Calderon/PG, arm injury [day-to-day]
3. Hedo Turkoglu/SF, leg injury [incurred last night]

Houston
1. Yao Ming/C, foot injury [expected to return next season]
2. Kyle Lowry/PG, leg injury [day-to-day]
3. Trevor Ariza/SF, hip injury [day-to-day]

Examining the complete rosters for each team:

is an interesting exercise when considering:

i. Chris Bosh/PF-C becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer;

ii. Chris Bosh is originally from Dallas, Texas;

iii. The relative “NBA talent” base on these two rosters;

iv. The “playoff prospects” for these two teams:

A. This season, and
B. Beyond the current season. 

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