khandor’s sports blog

Yet another reason to like the job which Otis Smith [GM] has done, thus far?

NBA Countdown: No. 8 Orlando Magic
Reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in 14 years and second in franchise history was a wonderful accomplishment for the Orlando Magic-but there was no guarantee a championship would follow.The Magic will go into the 2009-10 season determined to defend their Eastern Conference title but looking different than when they won it. Yes, they still have All-Star center Dwight Howard as their foundation and high-priced Rashard Lewis (who’s suspended the first 10 games of the season after testing positive for an elevated testosterone level) shooting 3-pointers, but the Magic changed their late-game, go-to guy by switching from Turkoglu to Carter.

It’s why general manager Otis Smith didn’t take any bows, or even take the time to catch his breath.

And it’s also why he made one of the boldest moves of the summer, changing his carefully crafted team chemistry by trading for All-Star Vince Carter and letting go of free agent Hedo Turkoglu, a key player in Orlando’s recent rise.

“You can’t stand still in this league,” Smith said. “If you do, you’ll be going backward.”

The Magic also added free agents in power forward Brandon Bass from Dallas and small forward Matt Barnes of Phoenix. They even added point guard Jason Williams, who last played during 2007-08 with the Heat. Surprisingly, they kept backup center Marcin Gortat by matching the offer sheet Dallas gave him.

With the Celtics adding Rasheed Wallace and the Cavaliers trading for Shaquille O’Neal, the Magic tried to keep pace with the other serious contenders in the East.

“There are less than seven teams every year that really are trying to win a championship in our league,” Smith said. “Those three (in the East) are trying to win now, as opposed to saying ‘We’re OK where we are. Let’s stay the status quo.’”

———————————–

Otis Smith was hired by the Magic on May 6, 2006.

This is what the team’s roster looked like on that day:

Augmon, Stacey F
Battie, Tony PF-C
Cato, Kelvin C
Diener, Travis PG
Dooling, Keyon G
Francis, Steve G
Garrity, Pat PF
Hill, Grant G-F
Howard, Dwight C
Kasun, Mario C
Morris, Terence PF
Nelson, Jameer PG
Outlaw, Bo PF
Stevenson, DeShawn G
Turkoglu, Hedo F

This is what it looks like today, 41 months later:

Almond, Morris G
Anderson, Ryan PF
Barnes, Matt F
Bass, Brandon PF
Carter, Vince G-F
Foyle, Adonal C
Gortat, Marcin C
Howard, Dwight C
Johnson, Anthony PG
Johnson, Linton F
Lewis, Rashard F
Nelson, Jameer PG
Pietrus, Mickael G-F
Redick, JJ G
Williams, Jason PG

This is Orlando’s record of performance, since that date:

2008-2009
59-23/.720, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, NBA Finalist 
2007-2008
52-30/.634, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 2nd Rd
2006-2007
40-42/.488, 3rd Atlantic, 8th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

This was their record of performance the season before Smith arrived:

2005-2006
36-46/.439, 3rd Atlantic, 10th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

3 full seasons into his tenure with the Magic, Otis Smith should be considered as one of the best GM’s in the NBA.

================================================

By way of comparison, for the benefit of Raptors fans, this is what Toronto has accomplished under the direction of Bryan Colangelo [2-time NBA EOTY award recipient] during this same time-frame:

2005-2006 Roster [Feb 28 2006]
Araujo, Rafael PF
Bonner, Matt PF
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
Davis, Antonio PF-C
Graham, Joey F
James, Mike PG
Martin, Darrick PG
Peterson, Morris G-F
Sow, Pape PF
Villanueva, Charlie F
Williams, Eric G-F
Woods, Loren C

2009-2010, Current Roster
Banks, Marcus G
Bargnani, Andrea C
Belinelli, Marco G-F
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
DeRozan, Demar G-F
Douby, Quincy G
Evans, Reggie PF
Jack, Jarrett G
Johnson, Amir PF
Nesterovic, Rasho PF-C
O’Bryant, Patrick C
Turkoglu, Hedo F
Weems, Sonny G-F
Wright, Antoine G-F

Year #1-3
2008-2009
33-49/.402, 4th Atlantic, 13th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs
2007-2008
41-41/.500, 2nd Atlantic, 6th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd
2006-2007
47-35/.573, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

Year Prior
2005-2006
27-55/.329, 4th Atlantic, 1st Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

================================================

In the NBA, the cold harsh reality is that there are only 2 distinct tiers of teams:

Tier 1
Those few that are actually trying to win the League Championship.

Tier 2
Everybody else.

Much R.E.S.P.E.C.T. to Otis Smith for “cutting to the chase” and improving the Orlando Magic each season, thus far.

================================================

 

Matching-up the Raptors’ current roster with the end-of-season version for the 2008-2009 campaign, on a position-by-position basis, looks like this:

#	Pos	2008-2009 33-49/.402	Adv	2009-2010 ?/?	Assessment
1	PG	Calderon	à	Calderon	Injury-free = improved.
2	OG	Parker	ß	DeRozan	Solid vet > NCAA rookie.
3	SF	Marion	ß	Turkoglu	Better overall player.
4	PF	Bosh	=	Bosh	Perennial All-Star.
5	C	Bargnani	=	Bargnani	Same. *Wildcard*.
6	PG	Ukic	à	Jack	Stable. Better shooter.
7	OG	Kapono	à	Belinelli	Better scorer. Versatile.
8	SF	Graham	=	Wright	Medium-grade players.
9	PF	M-Bonsu	=	Evans	Energetic rebounder.
10	C	O’Bryant	à	Nesterovic	Significant upgrade.
11	PG	Banks	=	Banks	Same.
12	OG	Douby	=	Douby	Same.
13	PF	Jawai	=	Weems [SF]	Different not better.
14	PF	Humphries	=	Johnson	Different. Similar.
15	C	Voskuhl	=	O’Bryant	Will to improve?
SUMMARY: - 2 players better from 2008-2009 [Darkest shade] - 4 players better from 2009-2010 [Darker shade] - 10 players relatively equal - EDGE to 2009-2010

While it’s relatively easy to see how other NBA observers can feel that the Raptors have increased their Perceived Talent Level [PTL] by a substantial amount this off season, when a comparative eye is then cast further backwards, to the previous year [2007-2008]:

#	Pos	2007-2008 41-41/.500	Adv	2009-2010 ?/?	Assessment
1	PG	Ford	à	Calderon	Injury-free = improved.
2	OG	Parker	ß	DeRozan	Solid vet > Rookie.
3	SF	Moon	à	Turkoglu	More consistent.
4	PF	Bosh	=	Bosh	Perennial All-Star.
5	C	Bargnani	=	Bargnani	Same. *Wildcard*.
6	PG	Calderon	=	Jack	Similar value; diff skills.
7	OG	Delfino	=	Belinelli	Similar value; diff skills.
8	SF	Kapono	=	Wright	Similar value; diff skills.
9	PF	Humphries	=	Evans	Energetic rebounder.
10	C	Nesterovic	=	Nesterovic	Same; older now.
11	PG	Martin	ß	Banks	Solid vet. Accepted role.
12	OG	Dixon	=	Douby	Similar value; diff skills.
13	SF	Johnson-L	=	Weems	Low grade players.
14	PF	Baston	à	Johnson-A	Upside. Under-used.
15	C	Brezec	=	O’Bryant	Will to improve?
SUMMARY: - 2 players better from 2007-2008 [Darkest shade] - 3 players better from 2009-2010 [Darker shade] - 10 players relatively equal - SLIGHT EDGE to 2009-2010

and, ultimately, to the watershed 2006-2007 season: 

#	Pos	2006-2007 47-35/.573	Adv	2009-2010 ?/?	Assessment
1	PG	Ford	=	Calderon	Similar value, diff skills.
2	OG	Parker	ß	DeRozan	Euro star > Experience.
3	SF	Peterson	à	Turkoglu	More consistent player.
4	PF	Garbajosa	=	Bosh	Versatile Euro player.
5	C	Bosh	ß	Bargnani	All-Star > highly erratic.
6	PG	Calderon	=	Jack	Similar value; diff skills.
7	OG	Graham	à	Belinelli	More value; better skills.
8	SF	Bargnani	ß	Wright	More value; better skills.
9	PF	Humphries	=	Evans	Energetic rebounder.
10	C	Nesterovic	=	Nesterovic	Same. Older now.
11	PG	Martin	ß	Banks	Solid vet. Accepted role.
12	OG	Dixon	=	Douby	Similar value; diff skills.
13	SF	Jackson	=	Weems	Low grade players.
14	PF	Sow	à	Johnson-A	Upside. Under-used.
15	C	Slokar	=	O’Bryant	Different not better.
SUMMARY: - 4 players better from 2006-2007 [Darkest shade] - 3 players better from 2008-2009 [Darker shade] - 8 players relatively equal - SLIGHT EDGE to 2006-2007

the picture produced is somewhat different.

Reviewing ALL 3 of these comparisons, at-once, it would be more accurate to say that the current roster has:

* MORE talent than the 2008-2009 version [33 wins];

* SLIGHTLY MORE talent than the 2007-2008 version [41 wins]; and,

* SLIGHTLY LESS talent than the 2006-2007 version [47 wins].

An accurate understanding of what exactly is going on these days in Raptorville is not arrived at easily for many of the team’s rabid fans who are active participants in the on-line hoops community. Amidst the general euphoria that has taken hold in the aftermath of last week’s seemingly stunning 4-team trade extravaganza with Dallas, Orlando and Memphis … which netted the Raptors:

* Hedo Turkoglu [F, Orlando, UFA]
* Antoine Wright [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season]
* Devean George [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season], and
* Preserved their right to use the Mid Level Exception [MLE], the Low Level Exception [LLE], and exercise their [Larry] Bird Rights towards resigning their own Unrestricted Free Agents [UFA]

at the expense of:

* Shawn Marion [Sign & Trade with Orlando, UFA]
* Kris Humphries [trade with Dallas; injured much of last season]
* Nathan Jawai [trade with Dallas; disabled much of last season]
* 2nd Round Draft Pick/2016 [trade with Dallas]
* Cash Considerations [trade with Dallas] 

The stark reality of this team’s current situation is perhaps best reflected in the bright lights of the following 5 observations:

PART ONE
The post-trade outlook for the Raptors which was first put together by “Dave” [nbaroundtable, Thu July 9], extolling the possible virtues:

Where do the Raptors go from here?

PART TWO
The specific comment which “Dave” then left in a different thread on his blog, later that same afternoon, indicating his actual thoughts on their chances to succeed with their current roster configuration:

———-

Four team trade: Shawn Marion to Dallas
2011/12

This is the Raptors fail safe option. When they fail, and they will fail, they need to have this option open to them and then use this option.

This means no extra contracts that last beyond two years. I will dislike pretty much any contract that goes beyond two seasons. As long as the contract is than two seasons, spending that money doesn’t bother me in the slightest.

Dead End

The Raptors are going nowhere, and they need a miracle to happen for this plan to have any chance of working out. The Raptors are going to run into [sic] dead end.

Now, it’s time just to sit back and let things play out. Things will not improve until Colangelo figures out Bargnani isn’t a cornerstone of this franchise … until that happens, there’s nothing else that can be done to put the Raptors on the right road.

The Raptors can’t get out of the corner that they’ve boxed themselves into, until Bargnani is moved on. Any aspirations for a title are on hold until this happens.

———-  

PART THREE
The specific comment which was made on this blog [July 11, 11:35 AM], by yours truly, that addressed the supposed “Qualitative Improvement” of the Raptors current roster pieces in comparison with last season’s end-of-year squad, pertaining to the question of:

———-

Which team made out best from 4-team trade?
IMO, the Raptors have made upgrades in certain areas thus far but it would be a mistake in judgment to assess this improvement as being “a lot better“, just yet:

No BEFORE ADV AFTER

1 Calderon = Calderon
2 Parker <– Wright … AP is significantly better
3 Marion = Turkoglu … Turkoglu is NOT significantly better
4 Bosh = Bosh
5 Bargnani = Bargnani
—————————-
6 Ukic = Ukic
7 Kapono –> DeRozan * … cyclical due to draft
8 Graham = George … Devean is NOT significantly better
9 Humphries = Evans … Reggie is NOT significantly better
10 O’Bryant –> Nesterovic … Rasho is much better!
—————————-
11 Douby = Delfino … is different but NOT much better
12 Mensah-Bonsu = Mensah-Bonsu
—————————-
13 Banks = Banks
14 Jawai ? Barnes … jury still out on Nathan
15 Voskuhl = O’Bryant

Those who are looking at these changes in an excessively positive light are the ones looking through rose-coloured spectacles.

———-

PART FOUR
The Shifting Player Personnel Chart that was constructed by yours truly yesterday:

TORONTO RAPTORS ROSTERS 2007-2008 vs 2008-2009 vs 2009-2010
No	2007-2008 END	2008-2009			2009-2010 START
		Mitchell	Triano 1	Triano 2
1 2 3 4 5	Ford Parker Delfino Moon Bosh	Calderon Parker Moon Bosh O’Neal T	Calderon Parker Moon Bosh O’Neal	Calderon Parker U Marion T, U Bosh Bargnani	Calderon Wright T, E Turkoglu T Bosh Bargnani
6 7 8 9 10	Calderon Kapono Graham Humphries Bargnani	Solomon U Kapono Graham Humphries Bargnani	Solomon Kapono Graham Humphries Bargnani	Ukic Kapono Graham U Humphries X O’Bryant T	Jack R * DeRozan Y1 George T, E Evans T Nesterovic U *
11 12	Dixon Nesterovic	Ukic Y1 Adams U	Ukic Adams	Douby T, U Voskuhl U	Delfino R * O’Bryant
13 14 15	Martin Brezec Baston	Jawai Y1	Jawai	Banks T M-Bonsu U Jawai	Banks M-Bonsu R * Ukic
16	Garbajosa @			Delfino R @	Douby
W/L	41-41/.500	8-9/.471	13-25/.342	12-15/.444	?/?
Legend: X – Injured; Y1 – Rookie; R – Restricted Free Agent; U – Unrestricted Free Agent; @ - Not on active roster; W/L – Won-Lost record; Mitchell – Up to Dec 3, 2008; Triano1 – Before Shawn Marion trade; Triano2 – After Shawn Marion trade; T – Acquired via trade; E – Expiring contract this coming season; * - Expected to sign soon as Free Agent

 

which shows the drastic player changes that have happened with the Raptors for each of the past two seasons. 

PART FIVE
The glaring RED ALERT that was issued on Sunday by David Berri [i.e. noted economist, NBA "sage & soothsayer", author of The Wages of Wins Journal]:

Dashing Hope in Toronto
Not a Pretty Picture in Toronto

When we put the whole picture together, it appears the Raptors will employ the following starting line-up in 2009-10: Calderon (PG), Wright and/or DeRozan (SG), Turkoglu (SF), Bosh (PF), Bargnani [C].  Last season the NBA veterans in this line-up combined to produce fewer than 30 wins. So unless these players improve dramatically, or the team finds very productive players off the bench, it’s hard to see how this team improves dramatically.  And that’s true even if Delfino returns to Toronto (although if Evans returns to what we saw in the past there might be some hope this team can get past 40 wins).

All of this means that

1. Turkoglu will be seeing much more money in 2009-10, but probably far fewer wins.
2. Bargnani will also see much more money, but it seems unlikely he is ever going to produce many wins.
3. Bosh will see even more money after this next season, but if the Raptors don’t approach 45 or 50 wins (which seems likely) then it seems unlikely that the money Bosh is paid in the future is going to be paid by the Raptors.
4. So it looks likely the Raptors record performance in 2007-08 will stand for awhile.  In other words, if Bosh departs this team in 2010, then rebuilding will probably continue beyond 2009-10.
5. And this means — assuming the Raptors don’t make any major change to this team — the fans of the Raptors will keep paying money to see a team that’s not contending for a title.

———-

Experience says that when disparate individuals like:

1. “Dave” [nbaroundtable] … who combines statistics with Basketball Acumen;

2. khandor [that's me ] … who relies primarily on Basketball Acumen;

and,

3. David Berri … who relies heavily on a statistical approach to the analysis of on-court production for players in the NBA;

actually arrive at a similar conclusion … which is essentially opposed to the GENERAL CONSENSUS that exists in Raptorville today … it portends of difficult times ahead for this team in the coming season.

In the best interests of the franchise, let’s hope that all three of these “stray birds” are eventually proven to be wrong in their assessment of the team. 

 

Understanding the demise of the Toronto Raptors, since the end of the 2006-2007 season to where the team stands today, means starting with a simple review of their personnel, Then vs Now:  

Then

47-35/.573
1st place, Atlantic Division
1st Round Playoff Loss
General Manager - Bryan Colangelo
Head Coach - Sam Mitchell 
Main Players - TJ Ford/PG, Anthony Parker/OG, Morris Peterson/SF, Jorge Garbajosa/PF & Chris Bosh/C
Support Players - Jose Calderon, Darrick Martin, Juan Dixon, Joey Graham, Andrea Bargnani, Kris Humphries & Rasho Nesterovic,

Now

33-49/.402
4th place, Atlantic Division
Failed to qualify for the Playoffs
General Manager - Bryan Colangelo
Head Coach - Jay Triano 
Main Players - Jose Calderon/PG, Anthony Parker/OG, Shawn Marion/SF, Chris Bosh/PF & Andrea Bargnani/C
Support Players - Roko Ukic, Marcus Banks, Quincy Douby, Jason Kapono, Joey Graham, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, Kris Humphries, Nathan Jawai, Jake Voskuhl & Patrick O’Bryant

Italics - “New” Personnel

If you compare the two teams individual-by-individual, this is what you should be able to see:

Position	THEN	NOW	Comparison
General Manager	Bryan Colangelo	Bryan Colangelo	Comparable
Head Coach	Sam Mitchell	Jay Triano	Mitchell was better - Then
Point Guard Off Guard Small Forward Power Forward Center	TJ Ford Anthony Parker Morris Peterson Jorge Garbajosa Chris Bosh	Jose Calderon Anthony Parker Shawn Marion Chris Bosh Andrea Bargnani	Calderon is better - Now Comparable Comparable Comparable [“Tough vs Good”] Bosh was better - Then
Back-up PG 3rd String PG Back-up OG Back-up SF Back-up PF Back-up PF Back-up C	Jose Calderon Darrick Martin Juan Dixon Joey Graham Andrea Bargnani Kris Humphries Rasho Nesterovic	Roko Ukic Marcus Banks Jason Kapono Joey Graham Pops Mensah-Bonsu Kris Humphries Patrick O’Bryant	Calderon was better - Then Martin was better - Then Comparable Comparable Bargnani was better - Then Comparable Nesterovic was better - Then
Extra Player A Extra Player B Extra Player C	Player 13 Player 14 Player 15	Quincy Douby Nathan Jawai Jake Voskuhl	No Comparison No Comparison No Comparison

 

 

Those who think that the current version of the Raptors is somehow lacking “Leadership” from Chris Bosh & Jose Calderon, or that CB4 is somehow NOT worthy of consideration as a legit “Franchise Player” in the NBA, or that El Matador is somehow “Too Conservative With The Ball & NOT Dynamic Enough”, as a main-frame PG, etc., to form The Core of a contending team in the Eastern Conference are displaying an overall lack of Basketball Acumen, when it comes to Understanding How Exactly the NBA Game Works.

Instead of BUILDING UP the remainder of the team’s personnel AROUND Chris Bosh [C] and Jose Calderon [PG], since the end of the 2006-2007 season, what Bryan Colangelo has done is DECREASED/LOWERED the actual Ability Level & Functionality of the other key pieces to the Raptors puzzle.

Until the Raptors re-stock their barren shelves with Additional Players to provide them with INCREASED Ability Level & Functionality, in terms of QALITY DEPTH, overall, they will remain a Treadmill Team, in the Salary Cap-driven NBA. 

———-

Q1. How many of the current Raptors would rank in the top half of all the players in the League at their respective positions?

A1. Excluding Chris Bosh [C] & Jose Calderon [PG] … very few, if any.

 

FINAL SCORE: RAPTORS 98, Wizards 100
Complete Game Info

————————————————————

The Wizards’ [15th place, 19-61/.238] immediate future is so much brighter, in comparison with the Raptors’ [14th place, 30-49/.380], that it’s not even funny.

STARTERS
Arenas vs Calderon
Young vs Parker [past his prime]
Butler vs Marion [past his prime]
Jamison vs Bosh [playing out of position]
Haywood vs Bargnani [not a dominating Center]

KEY SUBS
Crittenton vs Ukic [not yet ready for the NBA]
Stevenson vs Kapono [an albatross]
McGuire vs Graham
Songaila vs Humphries
Blatche vs O’Bryant [not an NBA-level player]

EXTRAS
James vs Banks [not an NBA-level player; an albatross]
Dixon vs Douby [not an NBA-level player]
McGee vs Jawai [not an NBA-level player]
Pecherov vs Voskuhl [not an NBA-level player]
Thomas vs ?

UPCOMING DRAFT PICK
No. 1-3 [overall] Selection vs No. 8-9 Selection [if not traded again]

Thinking back to where the Raptors’ player roster was in Jan-Feb/06, before Bryan Colangelo [Pres/GM] was hired, and comparing it to the current one:

Raptors Roster 2005-2006

27 - 55 .329 (pythagorean: 31 - 51 .382)

Name G Min Pts PPG FGM FGA FGP FTM FTA FTP 3PM 3PA 3PP REB RPG AST APG STL BLK TO
Chris Bosh 70 2753 1572 22.5 549 1087 .505 474 581 .816 0 13 .000 647 9.2 181 2.6 50 79 157
Mike James 79 2922 1604 20.3 576 1228 .469 283 338 .837 169 382 .442 262 3.3 460 5.8 72 3 206
Morris Peterson 82 3139 1374 16.8 478 1096 .436 241 294 .820 177 448 .395 381 4.6 190 2.3 104 15 126
Charlie Villanueva 81 2364 1053 13.0 435 940 .463 113 160 .706 70 214 .327 521 6.4 88 1.1 60 63 99
Jalen Rose 46 1238 557 12.1 180 446 .404 166 217 .765 31 115 .270 129 2.8 113 2.5 20 10 65
Matt Bonner 78 1711 583 7.5 209 467 .448 63 76 .829 102 243 .420 284 3.6 56 0.7 49 31 32
Joey Graham 80 1579 533 6.7 198 414 .478 108 133 .812 29 87 .333 244 3.1 60 0.8 37 13 92
Jose Calderon 64 1485 349 5.5 132 312 .423 78 92 .848 7 43 .163 141 2.2 288 4.5 42 4 101
Andre Barrett 17 261 78 4.6 35 97 .361 6 9 .667 2 13 .154 22 1.3 50 2.9 10 0 14
Antonio Davis 8 191 35 4.4 14 31 .452 7 20 .350 0 0 .000 36 4.5 7 0.9 3 1 8
Pape Sow 42 591 147 3.5 53 123 .431 41 57 .719 0 0 .000 146 3.5 8 0.2 21 19 30
Eric Williams 28 356 91 3.3 29 75 .387 28 38 .737 5 18 .278 50 1.8 15 0.5 7 2 15
Darrick Martin 40 340 102 2.6 34 97 .351 18 24 .750 16 40 .400 20 0.5 57 1.4 17 0 15
Rafael Araujo 53 618 125 2.4 55 152 .362 15 28 .536 0 2 .000 145 2.7 21 0.4 25 6 42
Loren Woods 27 324 62 2.3 28 59 .475 6 14 .429 0 1 .000 110 4.1 4 0.1 9 23 16
Aaron Williams 14 99 25 1.8 10 19 .526 5 6 .833 0 0 .000 15 1.1 1 0.1 4 3 5
Alvin Williams 1 10 1 1.0 0 3 .000 1 2 .500 0 2 .000 3 3.0 0 0.0 0 0 0
2006 No. 1 [overall], 1st Round Draft Pick
2006 No. 5 [overall], 2nd Round Draft Pick

is enough to put tears in the eyes of someone who really knows how to go about building a championship calibre NBA franchise, given the assets at their disposal 3 seasons ago.

———-

Where exactly each of these teams go from here will be determined by their respective General Managers, one of whom is already a 2-time NBA Executive Of the Year Award winner … the other of whom has yet to be recognized by his peers in this way [i.e. Ernie Grunfeld].

If the actual wager was …

Which one’s team is going to finish with more WINS during the 2009-2010 season AND go further in the NBA Playoffs?

on whom would YOU be willing to bet a sizable portion of YOUR own hard-earned money?

According to Bryan Colangelo (GM), the player roster is now set for the start of next season.

Raptors add Will Solomon (G)

2008-2009 Toronto Raptors

STARTERS: Jose Calderon, Anthony Parker, Jemario Moon/Jason Kapono, Jermaine O’Neal, Chris Bosh
BENCH: Roko Ukic, Jason Kapono/Jemario Moon, Andrea Bargnani
RESERVES: Will Solomon, Hassan Adams, Joey Graham, Kris Humphries, Nathan Jawai

When you compare the ‘content & quality’ with the team that began the 2007-2008 campaign … i.e.

2007-2008 Toronto Raptors

STARTERS: Ford, Parker, Kapono, Bosh, Nesterovic
BENCH: Calderon, Delfino, Bargnani, Humphries, Garbajosa
RESERVES: Martin, Dixon, Graham, Moon, Baston

… it’s apparent that this year’s squad (as constructed) will not be taking a step up the ladder in the Eastern Conference anytime soon.

Jose Calderon is a significant upgrade at the Starting PG position over TJ Ford but other than that lone improvement the ‘quality depth’ on this roster is far below where it needs to be (and once was, at the height of the Glen Grunwald regime) in order to be considered a LEGITIMATE CONTENDER in the NBA.

Needing to upgrade their 2007-2008 roster with improved REBOUNDING & Defense the Raptors addressed neither of those primary concerns with the acquisitions they made this off-season …

* Adding O’Neal while discarding Nesterovic + Garbajosa is a zero-sum gain
* Adding Adams, Jawai, Ukic & Solomon while discarding Delfino + Baston + Martin + Dixon is a zero-sum gain
* Elevating Calderon while discarding Ford … and not getting a significant Wing player or an established back-up PG in return is a zero-sum gain

Looking back to what was written in this space on July 2 …

Understanding Bryan Colangelo’s method of operation (good & bad)

very little has changed over the years in the way that their GM conducts the business of basketball … i.e.

* Field a competitive team which wins its fair share of regular season games
* Concentrate efforts on finding ’solid’ players at a ‘reasonable’ cost
* Include sporadic ‘high end’ player acquisitions which come with considerable ‘risk’
* Construct a player roster which falls short of what’s actually required to be considered a Legitimate Contender for an NBA championship
* Always come in under the Salary Cap
* Make a lot of money for the team’s ownership

Despite the fact that this year’s team will have 5 (of 13) new faces on the player roster … the more things (seem to) change the more they (actually) stay the same in Raptorland.

Moving on up in the East side

 

What do the Raptors need to do this off-season in order to advance to the 2^nd Round (or further) of the NBA Playoffs next year?

 

CURRENT STARTERS

 

TJ Ford (Point Guard) must be traded to solidify the team’s identity and create PG stability.

 

Anthony Parker (Off Guard) must be shifted to a Back-up role.

 

Jamario Moon (Small Forward) must improve his perimeter Jump Shot.

 

Chris Bosh (Power Forward) must be installed as the permanent Center, continue to get stronger physically and add a consistent “Turn-around Jump Shot in the Low Post” to his game.

 

Andrea Bargnani (Center) must be shifted to a back-up role.

 

CURRENT BACK-UPS

 

Jose Calderon (Point Guard) must be installed as the permanent PG.

 

Jason Kapono (Small Forward/Off Guard) must be installed as the permanent Designated Shooter (OG).

 

Carlos Delfino (Off Guard/Small Forward) must remain in a back-up role.

 

Kris Humphries (Power Forward) must be installed as the permanent PF (or become Jorge Garbajosa’s back-up).

 

Rasho Nesterovic (Center) must remain in a back-up role.

 

CURRENT RESERVES

 

Joey Graham (Power Forward/Small Forward) must be developed as a Defender/Rebounder/Spot-up Jump Shooter who can either start or come off the bench if need be as a “Mismatch Creator/Combator”.

Maceo Baston (Power Forward/Center) must be shifted to an Extra role or be released.

CURRENT EXTRAS

 

Darrick Martin (Point Guard) must remain in an Extra role or be released.

 

Jorge Garbajosa (Power Forward/Small Forward) must be re-installed as the permanent PF (or be able to back-up Kris Humphries).

 

Primo Brezec (Center) must remain in an Extra role or be released.

 

 

Then, if the Raptors re-shuffle their everyday line-up, for example, like this:

 

STARTERS

 

Calderon (PG); Kapono (OG); Moon (DF); Garbajosa/Humphries (PF); Bosh (C)

 

BACK-UPS

 

Parker (PG/OG); Delfino (OG/SF); Garbajosa/Humphries (PF); Bargnani (C/PF); Nesterovic (C)

 

RESERVES

 

Graham (SF/PF); Brezec (C)

 

EXTRAS

 

* An open roster spot for a Point Guard (replacing Darrick Martin)

* An open roster spot for a Off Guard/Small (obtained in a trade for TJ Ford, which could bring a Starter or a Back-up)

* An open roster spot for a Power Forward/Center (replacing Maceo Baston)

 

These moves will allow the Raptors to accomplish several goals simultaneously:

 

1. Increase their 3Pt Shooting Efficiency with Calderon & Kapono receiving more MPG;
2. Improve their Team Defense & Rebounding by becoming bigger & more physical at the PG & OG positions, replacing Ford & Parker with Calderon & Kapono - which allows for more ‘Switching’ but without being caught in a cross-matched situation and having a too small-sized player at either of those two spots – as well as at the PF & C positions, replacing Bosh & Bargnani with a combination of Garbajosa/Humphries & Bosh.
3. Improve their Offensive Efficiency by increase their 3Pt Shooting Percentage with Calderon & Kapono (their best 3Pt Shooters) receiving more MPG;
4. Create & Combat an assortment of mismatch player personnel combinations.
5. Keep their group of Core Players together for another season.
6. Firmly establish their Team Identity with Chris Bosh at Center & Jose Calderon at Point Guard.

 

By staying the course for one more year, essentially with this same group intact, adjusting only slightly – by removing TJ Ford from their roster and replacing him with a solid young Wing player – and focusing their attention on Team Rebounding & Defense, the Raptors are actually not that far away from establishing themselves as a perennial ‘Top 4 Team’ in the Eastern Conference.