khandor’s sports blog

3 weeks ago …

You were told in this space that the proper way for the Los Angeles Lakers to solve their problems this season would be to use Kobe Bean Bryant in a specific role:

Solving the Lakers’ problems with the Spurs, Apr 6 2010

Last week …

You were told in this space that the outcome of a playoff series can sometimes be determined by the ability of a team to make the correct game-to-game … and, THEN, in-game … adjustments, based on what its opponent’s specific strengths and weaknesses are and the best possible use of its own personnel:

Making the correct game-to-game adjustments can be THE difference between Winning and Losing in the Playoffs, Apr 23 2010

So much of what can be found on-line today concerning supposedly sound “basketball analysis” is little more than gobbledygook put forth by statistical gurus without a proper understanding of, 

“How the NBA game actually works.”

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Oklahoma City Thunder 87
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 111
Complete Series Info

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The fact is …

1. Sample sizes are rendered virtually meaningless;

2. League-wide averages are rendered virtually meaningless; and,

3. Creating and minimizing individual mis-matches against the best teams in the league - and a particular opponent of high calibre - are absolutely crucial;

 … when it comes to determining accurately which teams, coaches and, therefore, players will advance in the playoffs, or not.

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During the pre-season …

You were told in this space that the 2009-2010 NBA championship would, in all likelihood, be won by 1 of the following 5 teams:

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando Magic
Cleveland Cavaliers
Boston Celtics [i.e. depending upon the recovery of Kevin Garnett from injury]

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Los Angeles Lakers
San Antonio Spurs

Nothing which has happened since that time has fundamentally changed that perception. 

Right now …

The 4 best teams in the Eastern Conference are the Cleveland Cavaliers [4-1], Orlando Magic [4-0], Boston Celtics [4-1] and Atlanta Hawks [2-2].

The 4 best teams in the Western Conference are the Los Angeles Lakers [3-2], San Antonio Spurs [3-2], Utah Jazz [3-1] and Phoenix Suns [3-2].

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Barring any further major injuries …

This year’s NBA champions will, in all likelihood, be 1 of the following 3 teams:

Los Angeles Lakers, Phil Jackson [and Mitch Kupchak and Dr. Jerry Buss]
Orlando Magic, Stan Van Gundy [and Otis Smith and Richard DeVos]
San Antonio Spurs, Gregg Popovich [and RC Buford and Peter Holt]

… none of which happens to be the Cleveland Cavaliers with Mike Brown [and Danny Ferry and Daniel Gilbert].

Basketball is the ultimate TEAM Sport … with each player on the court having to be able to function adequately on Offense, on Defense, and in terms of Rebounding, in conjunction with the sound strategic and tactical decision-making skills of an elite level head coach, general manager and owner.

Those who think that basketball can be properly understood by examining the statistical norms, averages, outliers, etc., associated with representative “sample sizes”, “numerical formulas”, and all manner of “efficiency ratings,” are simply wasting their [and your] time.

Basketball is a game of:

I. Acumen;

and,

II. Inches;

… the most important of which are the “approximately 6″ located between the ears of a team’s owner, general manager, head coach and 8-9 regular rotation players.

Related:

Kobe Bryant, Closer to the ground

Every Move Must Have A Purpose

For Raptors fans who think that the recent 4-team trade was in fact based on the commitment of MLSE to do what’s necessary to win a League Championship, one day in the not-too-distant future:

Colangelo still tinkering with Raptors roster
“You have to find a way to get the right pieces in this year and roll forward and keep below that luxury tax level,” Colangelo said. “It’s going to get tighter and it’s something to contend with.”

———-

you SHOULD seriously re-evaluate that specific line of thinking.

When you hear Bryan Colangelo speak next of DOING WHAT’S NECESSARY TO ACCOMPLISH THAT SPECIFIC GOAL, down-the-road, please feel free to notify yours truly [perhaps, via email] right away!

The Raptors’ GM … and chief representative of MLSE, on the hoops side of the operation … talks, repeatedly, about being “committed to building a winning team” BUT he NEVER EVER takes the NEXT STEP and mentions something about,

“Doing what’s necessary to actually have a legitimate shot at winning the League Championship.”

What’s the reason for this?

Does he actually know what this involves, in today’s NBA, regarding such things as: i. Basketball Philosophy, ii. Coaching Philosophy, iii. Player Personnel, and iv. The Financial Commitment Required [etc.]?

The teams that are “honestly” trying to WIN the Championship in the NBA, these days, know full well that in order to give themselves a “real” chance at accomplishing this goal, they are going to have to accept the fact that they will be paying The Luxury Tax … which is really Nothing More than the “current toll fare” … in return for The Right to be able to drive on that specific Super-Highway.

The highest level of competition possible is where the Big Boyz play and that’s the going freight just to ante into the game.

The San Antonio Spurs … located in a small-to-mid sized market, but with a 1st-class ownership group [expertly led by Peter Holt] and a Top Notch GM/Head Coach tandem  [i.e. RC Buford & Gregg Popovich] … are a prime example of a team that is now fully aware of this and, therefore, chose to act accordingly this off season … i.e. as you can plainly see from their recent decisions to:

* Retain their best 3 players [i.e. Time Duncan, Manu Ginobili & Tony Parker]

* Retain a veteran like Michael Finley

* Select 3 new players in the 2009 NBA Draft [i.e. DeJuan Blair, No. 37, Jack McClinton, No. 51, and Nando De Colo, No. 53] who are ready to compete right away

* Trade for Richard Jefferson [i.e. another high end player], and

* Sign Antonio McDyess [UFA]

While the Toronto Raptors, on the other hand … chose to go a different route, replete with a Magician’s Wand & Cloak, a rabbit, a head stand, a glass of bottled water, a still dry shirt - with an exceedingly high collar - and an accompanying 3-piece band of partners in crime.

There are just a few teams in this League that are legitimately trying to WIN It All [i.e. Category One] …

then, there’s Everybody Else [i.e. who can be further sub-divided into two additional specific Categories: Two. Those trying to field a highly "competitive" team, in the process of turning a profit, annually; and, Three. Those simply trying to survive in hopes of maybe turning a profit].

DO NOT MAKE THE MISTAKE OF THINKING THAT WHAT THE RAPTORS DID WITH THEIR PARTICIPATION IN THIS 4-TEAM TRADE WAS DESIGNED TO SHIFT THEM FROM CATEGORY TWO INTO CATEGORY ONE.

It was not; not by a long shot.

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Related:

Which franchise made out best from the 4-team trade?

Prior to the recent transaction between the Raptors [Bryan Colangelo], Mavericks [Donnie Nelson], Magic [Otis Smith & Dave Twardzik] and Grizzlies [Chris Wallace], this is what each of those team’s rosters looked like:

Coming out the other side, today, this is what they look like now, respectively:

Legend:
UFA - Unrestricted Free Agent; RFA - Restricted Free Agent; R - Rookie Player; TPE - Traded Player Exception; DP - Draft Pick; CC - Cash Considerations

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The Perspective From This Corner

The fact is, however, that the Cleveland Cavaliers [Danny Ferry] MAY have benefitted most of all from this specific transaction, as they subsequently gained unfettered access to Anthony Parker, the exact sort of complementary wing player they were searching for … to augment LeBron James & Co., in an effort to win their 1st NBA Championship. 

Your feedback is welcome in the “Comments” section.

Earlier this spring, yours truly was asked to provide an example of the type of player who SHOULD be obtained by the Raptors in a trade which involved Andrea Bargnani, as a possible #4/PF to play beside Chris Bosh [as the Dino's main-frame Center]. The two names that came to mind straight away were Anderson Varejao [unrestricted] and David Lee [restricted], both of whom are designated as Free Agents at the moment.

Two years ago, as a restricted free agent, the Cavaliers took a long time bringing Varejao into the fold, only doing so after a protracted hold-out. This past season he played as a Starting #4/PF for Cleveland, riding shot-gun for LeBron James, to the tune of 66 W’s in the regular season campaign. As a 27 year old player, going into his 6th season in the NBA, Varejao [6-10, 260] is the sort of effective, role-playing, garbage man who could excel beside Bosh, in a number of different ways [e.g. Offensively, Defensively and in terms of Rebounding].

Right now … in the aftermath of trading for the Big Diesel … the Cavs are in the market for a wing player with solid defensive skills, big game experience and a lively pair of legs with the ability to re-energize their offense without needing the ball in his his hands a great deal of the time.

Do the Raptors have a player on their roster, at the moment, who fits the bill, in this regard … that could possibly be used in a sign and trade to secure the services of Mr. Varejao in return?

By chance … Yes, they do.

His name happens to be Shawn Dwayne Marion … and he’s a perfect fit for Cleveland to complete their roster, hunting for their 1st NBA Title next spring. He is an under-sized, highly energetic #4/PF, who would thrive playing beside [and between] King James and Shaq Daddy. 

———-

A second good option for the Raptors is David Lee.

Raps setting their sights on Knicks’ big man Lee
The Raptors are widening their NBA free-agent search that now includes one of the more intriguing players on the market.

Capping a whirlwind 24 hours to open the negotiating period, league sources say Toronto is trying to obtain David Lee, an energetic rebounder who is a New York Knicks restricted free agent.

The sources couldn’t say whether the move on Lee would be a straight offer or whether it would be a sign-and-trade transaction with any of Toronto’s current free agents …

Lee, 26, had a breakout year with the Knicks last season, averaging 16 points and 11.7 rebounds a game. He had a salary of just about $1.8 million (all figures U.S.) and is seen as one of the top young free agents out there; he’s a restricted free agent so if Toronto were to simply make an offer and not try to engineer some sign-and-trade transactions, the Knicks could match it.

———-

Instead of chasing after a good but older player with their available money this summer … e.g. Hedo Turkoglu [age 30] … the Raptors would be much further ahead if they pursued either Anderson Varejao or David Lee AND then used him as their Starting Power Forward beside Chris Bosh [C] this season.

If the Raptors would have just drafted Derrick Brown last Thursday night …

1 Jose Calderon
2 Anthony Parker
3 DeMar DeRozan
4 Carlos Delfino
5 Derrick Brown
6 Reggie Evans
7 Anderson Varejao or David Lee
8 Chris Bosh [Center]
9 Andrea Bargnani

that’s the sort of 9-Man CORE GROUP which could:

* Win their fair share of regular season games this coming season
* Convince CB4 to re-sign with the Raptors next summer 
* Be the foundation of a solid contending team in the EC for the next decade.

By initiating legitimate discussions with Danny Ferry and Donnie Walsh there are all sorts of possibilities which exist for Bryan Colangelo to improve the Raptors this off season … including possible trades involving other talented young players - e.g. Andrea Bargnani, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, JJ Hickson and Danny Green - on each of their respective rosters.

Prior to last night’s proceedings, these 15 individuals were identified by this corner as players who could have given the Toronto Raptors what they need, at this moment in time, heading towards a long term future [A] with or [B] without Chris Bosh:

Perception vs Reality - Who SHOULD Raptors Draft?

Al-Farouq Aminu [6-9, 215, SF/PF, Wake Forest, now unavailable]
Tyreke Evans [6-6, 219, PG/OG, Memphis]
DeMar DeRozan [6-7, 220, OG/SF, USC]
Earl Clark [6-10, 226, PF, Louisville]
Derrick Brown [6-8, 225, SF, Xavier]
Terrence Williams [6-6, 213, OG, Louisville]
Wayne Ellington [6-5, 202, OG, UNC]
Danny Green [6-6, 208, OG/SF, UNC]
Sam Young [6-6, 223, SF, Pittsburgh]
Marcus Thorton [6-4, 194, OG, LSU]
Tyler Hansbrough [6-9, 234, PF, UNC]
Taj Gibson [6-10, 214, PF, USC]
Dante Cunningham [6-8, 227, PF/SF, Villanova]
Tyler Smith [6-6, 212, OG, Tennessee, now unavailable]
Nando De Colo [6-5, 190, OG, France]

This is what happened last night with each of those 15 players::

Al-Farouq Aminu. Withdrew from consideration; back to Wake Forest.
Tyler Smith. Withdrew from consideration; back to Tennessee.

Tyreke Evans. SACRAMENTO/No. 4, selected by Geoff Petrie.

DeMar DeRozan. Player the Raptors/No. 9 wanted all along.

Earl Clark. PHOENIX/No. 14, selected by Steve Kerr.
Derrick Brown. CHARLOTTE/No. 40, selected by M-Jordan/L-Brown.
Terrence Williams. NEW JERSEY/No. 11., selected by R-Thorn/K-Vandeweghe.
Wayne Ellington. MINNESOTA/No. 28, selected by David Kahn
Sam Young. MEMPHIS/No. 36, selected by Chris Wallace. 
Danny Green. CLEVELAND/No. 46, selected by Danny Ferry.
Marcus Thorton. MIAMI/No. 43, selected by Pat Riley [traded to New Orleans-Jeff Bower/Byron Scott].
Tyler Hansbrough. INDIANA/No. 13, selected by Larry Bird.
Taj Gibson. CHICAGO/No. 26, selected by J-Paxson/G-Forman.
Dante Cunningham. PORTLAND/No. 33, selected by Kevin Pritchard.
Nando De Colo. SAN ANTONIO/N. 53, selected by RC Buford/G-Popovich.

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1. Over the next few seasons, it is going to be most interesting to watch the development of these 15 players.

2. The Charlotte Bobcats [37-45] are gradually building a very solid team:

* Adding Gerald Henderson [OG] and Derrick Brown [SF] last night
* Trading for Boris Diaw [PF-SF], Raja Bell [OG], Vladimir Radmanovic [SF-PF] and DeSagana Diop [C} last season
* Drafting DJ Augustin [PG] & Alex Ajinca [C} last year
* Re-signing Gerald Wallace [SF-PF] last year
* Re-signing Emeka Okafor [C-PF] 2 years ago

3. There’s a very good reason the same names keep popping up when the Larry O’Brien Trophy is awarded, in June, to the NBA Champions.

Update:

* Marcus Thorton has subsequently been traded to the New Orleans Hornets in exchange for two future 2nd Round Draft Picks [i.e. 2010 & 2012].
  

Five things that need to be understood about the Eastern Conference Finals which moves toward Game Five tomorrow night, at Quicken Loans Arena:

Game One: CLEVELAND 106, Orlando 107
Game Two: CLEVELAND 96, Orlando 95
Game Three: ORLANDO 99, Cleveland 89
Game Four: ORLANDO 116, Cleveland 114 [OT]

#1. The No. 1 seeded Cavaliers [66-16] should have been eliminated already from the post-season, swept away [4-0] by the No. 3 seeded Magic [59-23].

#2. Lebron James is an all-time great basketball player. Of this, there is little doubt.

So, too, however, was the incomparable Michael Jordan, during the first 5 seasons of his career with the Bulls, prior to the ascension of Phil Jackson into the Head Coach role for Chicago:

1984-1985, Kevin Loughery [38-44/.463]
1985-1986, Stan Albeck [30-52/.366]
1986-1987, Doug Collins [40-42/.488]
1987-1988, Doug Collins [50-32/.610]
1988-1989, Doug Collins [47-35/.573]

#3. Orlando is the better TEAM in this ECF series, not Cleveland.

#4. Danny Ferry [GM] still has a lot of work to do … e.g. re-vamping the Cavaliers’ roster and coaching staff … if Cleveland is going to win a NBA championship with King James at the center of its roster.

#5. Basketball is a TEAM game, most of all; and, in general, it’s the Best Team, overall, that triumphs in a 4-out-of-7 playoff series in the NBA. 

Yesterday’s action finished with the following results:

W-L: 1-0
Units: +2.00

which is another step in the right direction.

Overall, after Day 33:

W-L: 28-29
Units: +9.65

Hopefully, things continue to improve today.

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Sun May 24 2009

Game 1 - MAGIC vs Cavaliers

Orlando should be able to win outright this evening. At this number, the Magic are a VERY solid play.

Cleveland +1.5/102, +106
ORLANDO -1.5/-106, -116
Call: ORLANDO -116 [4 units]

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PS. When the Cavaliers installed Delonte West [6-3] as their primary Off Guard last season and then acquired Mo Williams [6-1] to be the main Point Guard last summer, yours truly was one of few NBA analysts who observed that Cleveland had actually failed to move forward in the Eastern Conference, relative to the other top dogs in the pound [i.e. Boston and Orlando and Detroit, prior to the Iverson trade]. It’s during the post-season that the quality of a team’s roster is best evaluated against the other legitimate contenders in the NBA, not during the regular season. If the Cavaliers fail to win the title this year, or even advance to the Finals, the roots of their demise will trace back to questionable personnel decisions like these two moves which indicate that Danny Ferry [General Manager] and Mike Brown [Head Coach] still lack the Basketball Acumen required to lead their team to the championship. 

Q1. How do you take a team that went to the NBA Finals last year and, then, ensure it has zero (”0″) chance of returning to that same place this season? … despite having, maybe, the best player on the planet, i.e. Lebron (King) James, on your roster!

A1. You have a GM who temporarily loses his mind and deals away almost 50% of his team …

Danny Ferry Goes Certifiably Insane 

for a collection of uninspired cast-offs, misfits and spare parts, whose best days in the NBA are long gone (or never were in the first place).

Wow! … an absolutely classic case of subtraction through addition for the Cavaliers, with the sum of their parts no longer surpassing the value of their whole.

PS. Somewhere, right now, Danny Ainge & Joe Dumars are smiling ear-to-ear.