khandor’s sports blog

According to Justin Kubatko, the creator of basketball-reference.com and the author of the following article for the New York Times …

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Keeping Score: Why the Nuggets are winning

With Wednesday night’s impressive road victory over the Atlanta Hawks, the Denver Nuggets improved to 9-2 since the trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks.

And although most analysts felt the Nuggets received a favorable return in the deal, few expected them to play this well without their star.

A closer look at the team’s numbers with Anthony and without him reveals some significant changes on both ends of the floor.

Perhaps the two biggest criticisms of Anthony while he was in Denver were his propensity to dominate the ball on the offensive end and his effort (or lack thereof) on the defensive end.

Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of plays that a player used while he was on the floor, where a play is defined to be a combination of field goal attempts, free throw attempts and turnovers. If a team distributed its plays equally among all of its players, then each individual would have a usage percentage of 20 percent.

Anthony’s usage percentage in Denver was 32.6 percent, the second-highest rate in the N.B.A. That, coupled with the fact that Anthony averaged 35.5 minutes a game, meant that the Nuggets’ offense was predominantly run through a single player.

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There still seems to be some degree of ”uncertainty” concerning the “unexpectedly” terrific play of the Denver Nuggets, in the aftermath of their recently completed trade with the New York Knicks.

Question

Given the actual quality of the personnel for the present version of the Nuggets, should this really be the case, at all? 

Answer

FWIW …

=====================================

[comment from April 8, 2011, 2:17 AM]

Prior to the Melo/Billups trade, Denver was a very talented team that was under-performing in the regular season – compared to the team from 2 years ago – due to a number of different factors, including:

i. Injuries to Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin;

ii. Turmoil surrounding the impending trade of C-Anthony;

iii. George Karl’s on-going recovery from last season’s bout with cancer; and,

iv. The loss of important role/back-up/bit players like Linas Kleiza and Johan Petro.

If this year’s team had been 100% healthy from the start of the season [including George Karl], however … and not immersed in the Melo/Billups trade controversy … then, the Nuggets would have most likely been one of the top 3 teams in the West all year long, based strictly on the strength of their personnel.

THEN …

When Masai Ujiri [GM] was able to extract a “motherload of still-young legitimate NBA level talent” from the Knicks, in exchange for what Denver only had to give up:

TO NEW YORK
C-Anthony + C-Billups + A-Carter + R-Balkman

[Please Note: Shelden Williams was also included in this trade.]

TO DENVER
D-Gallinari + W-Chandler + R-Felton + T-Mozgov + 2 Future 1st Round Draft Picks

[Please Note: The Nuggets only received 1 Future 1st Round Draft Pick from New York.]

it should actually NOT come as a surprise, at all, that THIS new version of the Nuggets is a pretty darn good outfit … when you put the newcomers together with the return to good health of Kenyon Martin [close to 90%] and Chris Andersen [close to 80%].

In early February [Please Note: It was actually back in January], well before the trade deadline, I forecast on my blog that the Denver Nuggets would likely be THE MOST IMPROVED TEAM in the NBA after the All-Star Break, if they CHOSE NOT to trade C-Anthony this year.

‘Non Top 4′ team most likely to reach the NBA Finals this season

Given what Denver got back from New York in the Melo/Billups trade, my forecast remains the same today.

Those who think the Nuggets are a prime example of the sum of the parts being greater than the value of the whole are simply ignorant of just how good the following individual players and coaches actually are:

STARTERS
1/Lawson/PG + 2/Afflalo/OG-SF [or Chandler] + 3/Gallinari/SF + 4/Martin/PF + 5/Nene/C

KEY SUBS
6/Felton/PG, 8/Chandler/OG-SF [or Afflalo], 7/Smith/SF-OG, 9/Andersen/PF-C and 10/Harrington/PF-C

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RESERVES
11/Forbes/SF [i.e. as good an 11th man as there is in the NBA] and 12/Mozgov/C [i.e. as good a 12th man as there is in the NBA]

—————————-

EXTRAS/OUTS
Ely/PF-C [i.e. as good a 13th man as there is in the NBA] and Koufos/C [i.e. as good a 14th man as there is in the NBA]

—————————-

HEAD COACH
Karl [i.e. as good a Head Coach as there is in the NBA, today, other than Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich]

because of an over-reliance on simplistic “statistical-based pseudo basketball analysis”.

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Enjoy!

PS. Afterall, it’s Masters Week, again! … and, the unoffical start of Spring!

Related:

Knicks, Nuggets and Timberwolves complete ‘blockbuster’ trade

Nuggets, Melo, Billups & Co. should be making legit bid to win Denver’s first NBA title

If the New York Knicks were indeed forced to include each of the following assets in their just-completed trade for Carmelo Anthony:

1. Raymond Felton/PG;
2. Danilo Gallinari/SF-PF;
3. Wilson Chandler/OG-SF;
4. Timofey Mozgov/C;
5. Anthony Randolph/SF-PF [sent to Minnesota];
6. Eddy Curry/C [sent to Minnesota];
7. 1 Future 1st Round Draft Pick [2014]; and,
8. 2 Future 2nd Round Draft Picks [obtained from Golden State in exchange for David Lee last summer]; 

then, it was certainly a hefty price to pay for the “opportunity” to field the following line-up the remainder of this season:

STARTERS
1 Chauncey Billups, PG
2 Landry Fields, OG
3 Carmelo Anthony, SF
4 Ronny Turiaf, PF
5 Amare Stoudemire, C

BACK-UPS
6 Tony Douglas, PG
7 Andy Rautins, PG-OG
8 Roger Mason, PG-OG
9 Kelenna Azubuike, OG-SF
10 Bill Walker, OG-SF
11 Shawne Williams, SF-PF
12 Renaldo Blackman, PF
13 Shelden Williams, PF

and “the possibility” of adding a player like Chris Paul, as well, somewhere down-the-road.

If Denver and Minnesota do actually decide to keep each of the players obtained by their respective teams in this reported transaction:

then, it may well be the case that:

1. New York has obtained the best player involved in these trades, but may still have failed to appreciably advance their franchise, in pursuit of winning a League Championship;

2. Denver may have obtained as close to “fair value”, as possible, in exchange for their disgruntled former “star” player who did not wish to sign a contract extension with their team;

and,

3. Minnesota may have made out like bandits, by acquiring 2 solid assets for their franchise, in exchange for only 1 ”spare part” on their current roster.

Time will tell if this transaction actually marks the end of Donnie Walsh’s tenure with the Knicks or, if it ushers in an era of renewed long term prosperity for the once-proud franchise, under the continued direction of its aging native son. 

After playing their first 11 games this year, the New York Knicks’ W-L Record was 3-8/.273.

Over the course of their next 14 games, however, the Knicks’ W-L Record has looked like this:

Q1. What precipitated the Knicks turn around this season?

A1. In sharp contrast to what different “stats gurus” have said about the Knicks so far this year …

Decoding the Knicks Secret Rebuilding Plan

The Least Productive Player in the NBA Today is One of the Most Expensive

Using Math to Predict the 2010-2011 Season and the NBA’s Math Doesn’t Add Up

The chief reason reason New York has improved so dramatically over the course of their first 25 games is because, in Game 11, Mike D’Antoni finally made the right decision and re-structured the rotation of his team, by:

i. Shifting Amare Stoudemire [6-10, 240] to his best position, i.e. Center;

ii. Shifting Danilo Gallinari [6-10, 225] to the Power Forward position;

and, 

iii. Re-defining the role of Timofey Mozgov [7-0, 1st-yr], who had functioned as their starting Center to that point in the season.

If you examine the Game Logs for Mr. Mozgov, you should be able to see that he started each of New York’s first 7 games this year; then, was used off the bench for Game 8 and Game 9, and returned to the starting line-up for Game 10 and 11.

In Game 11, however … according to the Play-By-Play … he was only used for 11:00+, and was not re-inserted into game after being substituted for by Ronny Turiaf [PF-C] at the 7:31 mark of the 3rd quarter:

1st Quarter, 12:00, Nyk 0, DEN 0
1st Quarter, 07:28, Nyk 9, DEN 13 [-4/4:32]
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2nd Quarter, 03:49, Nyk 43, DEN 50
2nd Quarter, 01:05, Nyk 51, DEN 59 [-1/2:44]
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3rd Quarter, 12:00, Nyk 54, DEN 61
3rd Quarter, 07:31, Nyk 64, DEN 72 [-1/4:29]

Even though the Knicks went on to lose this game to the Nuggets, it marked The  Turning Point in New York’s season. 

The next day, at Sacramento, the Knicks implemented their “new” rotation for the first time:

Since re-working their rotation, in the midst of Game 11, the Knicks have won 13 games and lost only 1 game.

While it has also been the case that the Knicks have benefitted from playing a relatively easy schedule during this same section of their schedule …

i.e. of these past 14 games only 3 have been against teams with winning W-L Records; Game 12, L @ DEN, Game 18, L vs Atl, and Game 25, W vs Den

… it will be very interesting to see if New York can maintain a positive W-L Record while moving into the next phase of their schedule, where they will encounter a higher class of opponent on a consistent basis:

including:

* 9 opponents with a .500+ W-L Record [in red]

* 3 opponents with a W-L Record that is only 1 game below .500 [in yellow]

* 1 opponent with a W-L Record that is well below .500 [in green]

Yes, the Knicks management team – i.e. Donnie Walsh & Mike D’Antoni – made a series of solid personnel decisions this past off season, including:

- the selection of Landry Fields, in the 2nd Round of the 2010 NBA Draft

- the signing of Amare Stoudemire, as a solid 2nd Tier Unrestricted Free Agent

- the signing of Raymond Felton, as a solid 3rd Tier Unrestricted Free Agent

- the acquisition of Anthony Randolph [SF-PF], Ronny Turiaf [PF-C] and Kelenna Azubuike [OG-SF], in a 3-for-1 trade with the Golden State Warriors [in return for David Lee, PF-C]

- the signing of Timofey Mozgov [C], as a relatively unknown player from the Euro-league

- the signing of Roger Mason, Jr. [PG-OG], as a 4th Tier Unrestricted Free Agent

- the signing of Shawne Williams [PF-SF], as a 5th Tier Unrestricted Free Agent

But the harsh, cold, objective reality of what’s entailed with everyday life in the NBA is that none of those individual – and collective - moves would have mattered one iota, unless their embattled head coach, Mike D’Antoni, also had the good Basketball Sense to re-structure their entire rotation AROUND the skill-set of Amare Stoudemire, while playing him at the Center position; and, not the PF position where so many other non-expert NBA observers mistakenly think ’Stat’ belongs, given his perceived ‘lack of size’, compared to the biggest players in the league who happen to work at this same position.

This type of highly specific, decisive, unconventional and accurate thinking is part of what is commonly referenced here as the work of a Top Notch practicioner in the field of Basketball Coaching.

Kudos to Mike D’Antoni … for replicating the basic systemic footprint he first established with the Phoenix Suns 6 years ago. 

Authentic genius does not involve going out on a proverbial limb.

Authentic genius involves simply identifying accurately:

[i] What actually works, in a given situation

vs

[ii] What actually does not work, in that same [or, at least, a very similar] situation

before others are able to reach a similar conclusion.

[e.g. Please note the reply comment to "Raptorsss", July 28th, 2010, at 10:55 PM, re: the projected Starting Centers in the EC this season, and the proper roles for Amare Stoudemire and Timofey Mozgoz with Mike D'Antoni's Knicks. ] 

Related:

Why Is Amare Stoudemire So Hard To Defend?

In last night’s victory against the Detroit Pistons, embattled New York Knick’s head coach, Mike D’Antoni, unveiled a new Starting Line-up for the home team:

PG, Tracy McGrady [6-8, 223], 34:28/MP
OG, Bill Walker [6-6, 230], 36:27/MP
SF, Danilo Gallinari [6-10, 225], 37:24/MP
PF, Al Harrington [6-9, 250], 35:45/MP
C, David Lee [6-9, 250], 43:56/MP

and, then, chose to give only 2 other players a significant number of minutes coming off the bench:

PG, Sergio Rodriguez [6-3, 176], 29:44/MP
OG/PG, Eddie House [6-1, 180], 19:27/MP

in what turned out to be a very tight, and effective, 7-Man rotation:

Detroit Pistons 104
NEW YORK KNICKS 128
Boxscore 

During this game, the Knicks used the following 5-Man Units with the associated +/- results:

While some observers in the on-line hoops community might be scratching their heads today about the level of success which New York enjoyed last night, while playing without a “traditional” Point Guard in their Starting Unit, it should come as no surprise at all to regular readers of this blog.

If Mike D’Antoni elects to stick with this arrangement, which dramatically improves New York’s ability to REBOUND the ball for significant segments within a game, it will be very interesting, indeed, to see how this new 7-Man rotation holds up for the Knicks over their next 3 games:

at TORONTO RAPTORS [.500+; Tied for 24th in Rebounding Differential]
vs New Jersey
vs Atlanta [.500+; Tied for 24th in Rebounding Differential]

prior to heading out on the road for 5 consecutive games:

at SAN ANTONIO [.500+; 3rd in Rebounding Differential]
at MEMPHIS [.500+; 2nd in Rebounding Differential]
at DALLAS [.500+; 18th in Rebounding Differential]
at PHILADELPHIA
at BOSTON [.500+; 23rd in Rebounding Differential]

If any of New York’s upcoming opponents are asleep at the switch, during this late season stretch of games, it should not come as any sort of surprise to that team’s fans to see the Knicks rise up and steal more than 1 or 2 of these specific match-ups. 

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PS. Yours truly has advocated that Tracy McGrady be used at the Point Guard position, going back in time to his initial years in the NBA with the Toronto Raptors. Even after all these years, it is still gratifying to see him succeed when placed in this specific role by his head coach. Oh, what the Raptors could well have developed into, way back then, if the people responsible for running the franchise had truly known what they were doing, from a basketball acumen standpoint with the triumpherate of T-Mac/PG, Vince Carter/OG and Doug Christie/SF on their roster, in conjunction with a slew of solid Bigs that included the likes of Antonio Davis/PF, Kevin Willis/PF, Charles Oakley/PF, Jerome Williams/PF, Keon Clark/PF and Hakeem Olajuwon/C, over a series of years from 1998 to 2002. 

As a follow-up to yesterday’s take on the sorry state of the once-proud Detroit Pistons …

Detroit Pistons 104 [21-40]
NEW YORK KNICKS 128 [21-39]

Complete Game Info

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Coming off a tough loss on Tuesday night, at home against the Boston Celtics, Detroit played New York fairly even for the first 32 minutes of last night’s match-up at Madison Square Garden, and trailed by only 5 points at the 4:02 mark of the 3rd quarter, when John Kuester made the decision to replace Rodney Stuckey/PG with Will Bynum:

What others should be able to glean from the Pistons’ performance last night … throughout the contest and, specifically, at crunch time … is that WHEN their coach, John Kuester, chooses to:

1. Use Will Bynum [23 MP] as the primary Back-up to Rodney Stuckey [26 MP], at the PG position, instead of Ben Gordon [OG-PG, 23 MP];

2. Use Rip Hamilton [33 MP] at the SF position, from time to time, in a “going small” 5-man unit, rather than exclusively at the OG position;

3. Use Ben Gordon as the primary Back-up to Rip Hamilton, at the OG position, usually in conjunction with Will Bynum/PG, giving the Pistons one of the “smallest” and least effective guard combinations in the league when it comes to defense and rebounding;

4. Use Jason Maxiell [30 MP] as his Starting Center, rather than Kwame Brown [3 MP in garbage time] … while operating beside Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince [33 MP] and Jerebko [33 MP];

5. Use Jonas Jerebko as his Starting PF, rather than starting Jason Maxiell at that position and then bringing Charlie Villanueva [15 MP] off the bench as his primary Back-up;

6. Use Charlie Villanueva as his Back-up Center, rather than starting Kwame Brown at that position and then bringing Chris Wilcox [DNP-CD] off the bench as his primary Back-up;

7. Not use Austin Daye for more than 10 minutes, as a secondary Back-up at the OG & SF positions, in a game where he was the only member of the Pistons who generated a “positive” plus/minus number [i.e. +6], while shooting 43% from the floor, shooting 100% from the FT Line, with 3 Rebs, a positive Ast:TO and 1 St;

and,

8. Not use DeJaun Summers [6-8, 240] for more than 3 minutes, as a secondary Back-up at the SF & PF positions, in a game where their opponent chose to start [and give critical amounts of PT to] a “going big” 5-Man Unit that looked like this:

Option 1

PG, T-Mac [6-8, 223]
OG, Bill Walker [6-6, 230]
SF, Danilo Gallinari [6-10, 225]
PF, Al Harrington [6-9, 250]
C, David Lee [6-9, 250]

Option 2

PG, T-Mac [6-8, 223]
OG, Eddie House [6-1, 180] 
SF, Bill Walker [6-6, 230]
PF, Al Harrington [6-9, 250]
C, David Lee [6-9, 250];

then, the Pistons are unable to compete successfully on Offense, Defense and in terms of Rebounding.

While others in the on-line hoops community are certainly free to assign blame to whomever they think is most responsible for the current mess in Detroit, as far as these eyes are concerned, the Pistons’ main problem this season is rooted in the poor decision-making of their head coach, John Kuester … i.e. in terms of how he is choosing to use his personnel … which has consistently resulted in awful performances similar to last night’s atrocious display in the 4th quarter.

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PS. Those who have followed this blog for the better part of the last 2 years should be able to readily attest that a simple observation of:

“What Team X needs to do in order to turn around their fortunes is fire their head coach,” 

is not the usual reaction from yours truly. In this case, however, there’s a good deal of solid “NBA level talent” that is simply going to waste in Detroit.

Gallinari Practices and the Knicks can barely contain themselves
The superlatives and expectations keep growing for Gallinari, the sixth overall pick in the 2008 draft. He showed no signs of discomfort in Tuesday’s two practices, or any indication that he had undergone minor back surgery five months ago.

He did, however, show off his full range of skills while playing with the first unit in the evening scrimmage.

Standing on the perimeter, Gallinari beat Larry Hughes off the dribble and fed David Lee inside for a layup attempt. (Lee missed.) When Al Harrington missed a 3-pointer, Gallinari soared in for a putback dunk. And in the highlight of the night, Gallinari spun past Ron Howard and flew in for a two-handed dunk. He missed a 3-pointer, but shooting is one skill the Knicks know Gallinari has in abundance.

D’Antoni has never wavered in his enthusiasm for Gallinari and is not concerned about raising expectations. Gallinari, 21, said he was not concerned either.

“I’m happy for that, because I think that if a player wants to be at a good level, you need responsibility, you need expectations,” Gallinari said, adding: “I like that. I know how to deal with that.”

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Remember the words, “Larry Nowitzki”, and exactly where you read them first.

If Gallinari can stay healthy this season … those who think that the Knicks are simply going to be push-overs in the EC [including many of the good folks in Raptorville] will be in for a rather Rude Awakening v1.

[ ... which, almost, unbelievably, led to this, this, this and, then, finally, this and this ... when we were all a great deal younger than today.]

Related:

Best shooter I’ve ever seen

For those questioning the merit of yesterday’s poll which asked visitors to select between Andrea Bargnani and Danilo Gallinari … and the suggestion made by yours truly that the 2nd year New York Knick might just be the first coming of a hybrid ‘Larry Nowitzki’ … comes this news today, in the form of an absolutely stunning quote from a reputable source:

Knicks don’t expect too much from Curry

Coach Mike D’Antoni had a far more positive take on Danilo Gallinari, the 2008 lottery pick who finally is 100 percent healthy after a rookie season plagued by a back injury that was corrected by surgery in April. D’Antoni called Gallinari “the best shooter I’ve ever seen” and pointed out that in the 28 games he played last season, the Knicks were 14-14.

D’Antoni acknowledged that the 21-year-old needs to get stronger, but he also suggested that the multi-talented Gallinari could play a key role in the team’s achieving what most people see as an improbable result this season: a playoff berth.

“I think we can fool a lot of people,” D’Antoni said, “and I think we can overachieve.”

——————————————–

High praise indeed, especially, when you consider some of the other players who the current Knicks head coach has previously had the good fortune of working with [A] in Phoenix … including Steve Nash, a former 2-time NBA MVP … and [B] with the USA’s Men’s National Team … including Kobe Bryant, a former NBA MVP, and Michael Redd, widely acknowledged as one of the best pure spot-up shooters in the NBA today.

Andrea Bargnani [C, 7-0, 250] was the No. 1 [overall] Selection in the 2006 NBA Draft and is set to begin his 4th full season in the League.

Danilo Gallinari [F, 6-10, 225] was the No. 6 [overall] Selection in the 2008 NBA Draft and, following an injury-plagued 1st season last year, is set to begin his 2nd campaign … according to published reports … in good health. 

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The view from this corner says that … if both are able to maintain relatively good health … when all is said and done, 15-20 years from today, Danilo Gallinari will be acknowledged as the superior NBA player, by a wide margin, given his diverse skill-set.

If there’s going to be a next-coming, on the NBA horizon, which combines the attributes of Larry Bird and Dirk Nowitzki, in a hybrid form, Gallinari is THAT player.

Related:

The best shooter I’ve ever seen …

The 5 teams in the Atlantic Division finished in the following order last season:

1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756, 2nd East, Lost 2nd Round 
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500, 6th East, Lost 1st Round  
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415, 3rd East, Missed Playoffs
4. Toronto Raptors, 33-49/.402, 13th East, Missed Playoffs
5. New York Knicks, 32-50/.390, 14th East, Missed Playoffs

At this point in the off season, the teams have made the following player personnel changes:

BOSTON CELTICS
Significant Losses
1. Leon Powe [PF], UFA
2. Mikki Moore [PF-C], UFA
3. Stephon Marbury [PG]
4. Gabe Pruitt [PG-OG]

Significant Adds
1. Lester Hudson/2nd Round Draft Pick [No. 58, overall]
2. Rasheed Wallace, UFA
3. Sheldon Williams, UFA
4. Marquis Daniels, UFA

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Significant Losses
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. Andre Miller [PG], UFA
3. Theo Ratliff [PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Elton Brand [PF], returns from injury
2. Jason Smith [PF-C], returns from injury
3. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
4. Jrue Holiday [PG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 19, overall]  
5. Rodney Carney [SF], UFA

NEW JERSEY NETS
Significant Losses
1. Vince Carter [SF-OG], trade
2. Ryan Anderson [PF], trade

Significant Adds
1. Terrence Williams [SF-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 11, overall]
2. Courtney Lee [OG], trade
3. Rafer Alston [PG], trade
4. Tony Battie [PF-C], trade

TORONTO RAPTORS
Significant Losses
1. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
2. Shawn Marion [PF-SF], UFA/Sign & trade
3. Kris Humphries [PF], trade
4. Nathan Jawai [PF-C], trade
5. Anthony Parker [OG-SF-PG], UFA
6. Joey Graham [SF], UFA
7. Roko Ukic [PG], trade
8. Carlos Delfino [SF-OG], trade

Significant Adds
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 9, overall]
3. Hedo Turkoglu [SF], Sign & trade
4. Antoine Wright [SF-OG], trade
5. Jarrett Jack [PG-OG], RFA
6. Marco Belinelli [OG-SF-PG], trade
7. Rasho Nesterovic [C-PF], UFA
8. Amir Johnson [PF], trade 

NEW YORK KNICKS
Significant Losses
1. Quentin Richardson [SF-OG], trade
2. Chris Wilcox, PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Danilo Gallinari [SF-PF], returns from injury
2. Jordan Hill [PF-C], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 8, overall]
3. Toney Douglas [PG-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 29, overall]
4. Darko Milicic [PF-C], trade
5. Sun Yue [PG], UFA

While several NBA observers seem to think the Raptors SHOULD be much improved this coming season, based on the wholesale changes made to their roster … this corner does not necessarily share that same opinion, when evaluated against the LOSSESS & ADDS of the other teams in their Division.

Q1. Have the Raptors improved, overall, from last season, relative to their competition?

A1. Maybe; maybe not … is the correct answer, at this point.

The Knicks and Nets are in re-building mode, and the Raptors SHOULD have been expected to finish this coming season in NO WORSE than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Celtics and, possibly, the 76ers … even if they would have done “nothing” substantive to improve their team this summer.

However, given that doing “nothing” was in fact the OPPOSITE of what the Raptors decided to do this off season … i.e. see above … it SHOULD now be EXPECTED that this supposedly improved team SHOULD finish NO WORSE than in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Celtics.

Once this expectation is established, what then becomes interesting is …

if the divisional standings eventually look something like this:

ATLANTIC
1 Boston
2 Toronto or Philadelphia
3 Philadelphia or Toronto
4 New York or New Jersey
5 New Jersey or New York

and the conference standings eventually look something like this:

SOUTHEAST
1 Orlando
2 Atlanta or Miami or Washington
3 Miami Atlanto or Washington
4 Washington or Atlanta or Miami
5 Charlotte

CENTRAL
1 Cleveland
2 Detroit or Chicago or Indiana
3 Chicago or Detroit or Indiana
4 Indiana or Detroit or Chicago
5 Milwaukee

and the playoff race eventually looks something like this:

Eastern Conference
1-2-3 Orlando – High End, Southeast
1-2-3 Cleveland – High End, Central
1-2-3 Boston – High End, Atlantic

4-5-6 Atlanta – Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Miami – Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Washington – Upper Middle, Southeast

7-8-9-10-11-12 Detroit – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Chicago – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Indiana – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Toronto – Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Philadelphia – Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Charlotte – Low End, Southwest

12-13-14-15 Milwaukee – Low End, Central
12-13-14-15 New York – Low End, Atlantic
12-13-14-15 New Jersey – Low End, Atlantic

indicating, perhaps, that the relative strength of each division may be shifting this season:

#1. Southeast
#2. Central
#3. Atlantic 

IF a scenario like this is eventually what plays out this season, then, how much will the Raptors really have improved this summer, relative to the other teams in their Division and the Eastern Conference, as a whole?

Earlier this spring, yours truly was asked to provide an example of the type of player who SHOULD be obtained by the Raptors in a trade which involved Andrea Bargnani, as a possible #4/PF to play beside Chris Bosh [as the Dino's main-frame Center]. The two names that came to mind straight away were Anderson Varejao [unrestricted] and David Lee [restricted], both of whom are designated as Free Agents at the moment.

Two years ago, as a restricted free agent, the Cavaliers took a long time bringing Varejao into the fold, only doing so after a protracted hold-out. This past season he played as a Starting #4/PF for Cleveland, riding shot-gun for LeBron James, to the tune of 66 W’s in the regular season campaign. As a 27 year old player, going into his 6th season in the NBA, Varejao [6-10, 260] is the sort of effective, role-playing, garbage man who could excel beside Bosh, in a number of different ways [e.g. Offensively, Defensively and in terms of Rebounding].

Right now … in the aftermath of trading for the Big Diesel … the Cavs are in the market for a wing player with solid defensive skills, big game experience and a lively pair of legs with the ability to re-energize their offense without needing the ball in his his hands a great deal of the time.

Do the Raptors have a player on their roster, at the moment, who fits the bill, in this regard … that could possibly be used in a sign and trade to secure the services of Mr. Varejao in return?

By chance … Yes, they do.

His name happens to be Shawn Dwayne Marion … and he’s a perfect fit for Cleveland to complete their roster, hunting for their 1st NBA Title next spring. He is an under-sized, highly energetic #4/PF, who would thrive playing beside [and between] King James and Shaq Daddy. 

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A second good option for the Raptors is David Lee.

Raps setting their sights on Knicks’ big man Lee
The Raptors are widening their NBA free-agent search that now includes one of the more intriguing players on the market.

Capping a whirlwind 24 hours to open the negotiating period, league sources say Toronto is trying to obtain David Lee, an energetic rebounder who is a New York Knicks restricted free agent.

The sources couldn’t say whether the move on Lee would be a straight offer or whether it would be a sign-and-trade transaction with any of Toronto’s current free agents …

Lee, 26, had a breakout year with the Knicks last season, averaging 16 points and 11.7 rebounds a game. He had a salary of just about $1.8 million (all figures U.S.) and is seen as one of the top young free agents out there; he’s a restricted free agent so if Toronto were to simply make an offer and not try to engineer some sign-and-trade transactions, the Knicks could match it.

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Instead of chasing after a good but older player with their available money this summer … e.g. Hedo Turkoglu [age 30] … the Raptors would be much further ahead if they pursued either Anderson Varejao or David Lee AND then used him as their Starting Power Forward beside Chris Bosh [C] this season.

If the Raptors would have just drafted Derrick Brown last Thursday night …

1 Jose Calderon
2 Anthony Parker
3 DeMar DeRozan
4 Carlos Delfino
5 Derrick Brown
6 Reggie Evans
7 Anderson Varejao or David Lee
8 Chris Bosh [Center]
9 Andrea Bargnani

that’s the sort of 9-Man CORE GROUP which could:

* Win their fair share of regular season games this coming season
* Convince CB4 to re-sign with the Raptors next summer 
* Be the foundation of a solid contending team in the EC for the next decade.

By initiating legitimate discussions with Danny Ferry and Donnie Walsh there are all sorts of possibilities which exist for Bryan Colangelo to improve the Raptors this off season … including possible trades involving other talented young players – e.g. Andrea Bargnani, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, JJ Hickson and Danny Green – on each of their respective rosters.