khandor’s sports blog

Toronto Raptors 91
UTAH JAZZ 104
Wed Nov 18 2009 - Game Scoreboard

At the 9:20 mark of the 4th quarter this was a 2 possession game with the Jazz leading, 83-79. 

If you look at the Full-Play-By-Play for the next 5 minutes and 20 seconds, what you should be able to see during this sequence is that:

Toronto had 14 offensive possessions.
Utah had 11 offensive possessions.

Toronto committed 3 Turnovers.
Utah commited just 1 Turnover.

Toronto took 9 shots outside of the lane [and made only 1].
Utah took 0 shots outside of the lane.

Toronto scored just 3 points [1/3FG].
Utah scored 12 points [4 FTs; 4/2FGs].

If you then watch the game-tape closely … specifically … this is how each of the offensive possessions for the Raptors and Jazz actually broke down:

What you should then be able to see is:

A. Just how ineffective the Raptors were with their ”High Middle/High Wing/Wing Pick” Series;

vs

B. Just how effective the Jazz were using their “UCLA Cut” Series and ”Transition Attack”;

in terms of generating high percentage shot attempts, in the lane, or from the free throw line … none of which should come as much of a surprise, at least, to those of you who paid attention to what was first written here on Sep 18 2009:

Thumb-down 35 special … for the Raptors

The fact is …

Not only is the Raptors’ defense performing in a poor way, thus far this season, but … when crunch time arrives in important games vs a Quality Opponent [.500+], or in last night’s case, vs an opponent that is particularly well-schooled in its own highly potent offensive and defensive [i.e. with designated helps and specific rotations] systems … so, too, is their offense, which is based primarily on the 3-5 Pick & Roll/Pop action.

Executing well, offensively, in the NBA isn’t just about “making the open shots your players happen to get” but, also … and, more importantly … “getting the specific type of open shots which your players can make on a consistent basis.” 

There’s a big difference between these two types of shot attempts.

When you first heard the news that New Jersey had agreed to trade Vince Carter [SF-OG] and Ryan Anderson [PF] to Orlando … in exchange for 3 pretty good but not great players, i.e. Courtney Lee [OG], Rafer Alston [PG], Tony Battie [PF-C] … did the thought occur to you that the Nets’ managerial tandem of Rod Thorn & Kiki Vandeweghe MUST know something that just isn’t common knowledge, yet? Or, perhaps, have an Ace of sorts, hidden up their collective sleeve?

As has been mentioned in this space before …

Yours truly has a great deal of confidence in the ability of specific GM’s across the NBA to assess with a fairly high degree of accuracy the talent level of elite players in this league: 

NJ Nets rookie takes over: Terrence Williams may be the Next Big Thing
Terrence Williams — for reasons that elude logic — looks like the Nets’ best player two weeks before camp opens.

Nobody wants to say this aloud for print, but they’ll go this far:

“He’s playing really well - a freak of nature athletically,” Keyon Dooling said yesterday. “In the moments I’ve watched, he’s really unique. What you don’t see from the great athletes is a high basketball IQ. But he has a nice floor game - a really nice floor game.”

Then there’s this from Mr. Reticence: “He’s really good. I worked with him some, watched him some, and I’m very impressed,” L-Frank said.

Both sounded as though they were looking over their shoulders, waiting for someone to jam a towel down their throats. Nobody wants to christen any rookie as The Next Big Thing, but everyone else we spoke to claims that T-Will the Thrill has absolutely torn up the gym.

Frank downshifted into omigod-let’s-douse-that-now speech:

“Winning the pickup game award isn’t necessarily a guarantee of success - Rodney Buford won it,” the coach said. “I think Terrence will be a very good player, but it’s early to make an evaluation. The guys like playing with him, because he’s a willing and capable passer - that’s human nature. But many young guys try to establish themselves by scoring; Terrence just makes the right plays and delivers the ball in the right position, which ingratiates you with teammates.”

———————————————

one of which happens to reside in New Jersey.

Does that mean these management teams never ever make a serious mistake when acquiring or releasing players for their franchise?

No, it does not.

What it does mean, though, is that … the individuals in charge of those specific organizations know exactly what it takes to put a solid team on the floor, and succeed in doing just that, on a consistent basis, without ever attempting to pull the wool over their fans eyes, regarding the realistic prospects for their team, in a given season … while always keeping a steady eye towards the gradual process involved with building a championship calibre team.

Those who think the following roster of players is going to be atrocious this season:

are making a serious in judgment … even if the Nets do happen to miss the playoffs, again.

There’s a definite plan in place with this franchise, as far as their player personnel is concerned, which now includes future stalwarts at four of the following five positions:

PG - Devin Harris
OG - Courtney Lee
SF - Terrence Williams
PF - ?
C - Brook Lopez 

It says here that Brook Lopez [C] will develop into one of the best Centers in the NBA during the next few seasons, at the heart of their line-up … with a solid core of talented athletic players around him … like D-Harris, C-Lee, CDR [?] and T-Will-The-Thrill, at their respective positions … to form a group that is going to be able to Rebound, Defend and Share the Ball, as a good team should.

According to the Raptors head coach …

Triano ready to go from surreal to real
“Thumb-down 35 special,” says Triano, spilling into blackboard talk for Turkoglu’s bread-and-butter play in Orlando. “Give him the ball with a high screen and roll (with Chris Bosh), and three shooters … we can put (Andrea) Bargnani where Rashard Lewis was, we can put Jose (Calderon) in one of the corners and put another shooter, (Jarrett) Jack, in the other corner. A pretty darned good play.”

———————————————

this should be an effective set play for Toronto this season, given their player personnel, compared with Orlando’s squad last year.

Is this really the case, however?

… when you match-up these specific sets of players against one another.

To wit:

[the relevant shooting percentages from last season, in the positions on the floor dictated by the design of this set play]

Jose Calderon, from the Deep Corners = 11-26/42.3%
Jameer Nelson, from the Deep Corners = 25-47/53.3%

Jarrett Jack, from the Deep Corners = 27-77/35.1%
Courtney Lee, from the Deep Corners = 43-98/43.8%

Andrea Bargnani, from the High Top R & L of the Key = 69-171/40.4%
Rashard Lewis, from the High Top R & L of the Key = 109-272/40.1%

Chris Bosh, Interior Shots = 289-500/57.8%
Dwight Howard, Interior Shots = 506-817/61.9%

[according to NBA Hotspots]

————————-

Those expecting the Raptors to experience “guaranteed succees” this season … along the lines of what the Magic had in 2008-2009 … on the basis of this specific set play, might be in for a surprise. 

The 5 teams in the Atlantic Division finished in the following order last season:

1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756, 2nd East, Lost 2nd Round 
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500, 6th East, Lost 1st Round  
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415, 3rd East, Missed Playoffs
4. Toronto Raptors, 33-49/.402, 13th East, Missed Playoffs
5. New York Knicks, 32-50/.390, 14th East, Missed Playoffs

At this point in the off season, the teams have made the following player personnel changes:

BOSTON CELTICS
Significant Losses
1. Leon Powe [PF], UFA
2. Mikki Moore [PF-C], UFA
3. Stephon Marbury [PG]
4. Gabe Pruitt [PG-OG]

Significant Adds
1. Lester Hudson/2nd Round Draft Pick [No. 58, overall]
2. Rasheed Wallace, UFA
3. Sheldon Williams, UFA
4. Marquis Daniels, UFA

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Significant Losses
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. Andre Miller [PG], UFA
3. Theo Ratliff [PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Elton Brand [PF], returns from injury
2. Jason Smith [PF-C], returns from injury
3. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
4. Jrue Holiday [PG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 19, overall]  
5. Rodney Carney [SF], UFA

NEW JERSEY NETS
Significant Losses
1. Vince Carter [SF-OG], trade
2. Ryan Anderson [PF], trade

Significant Adds
1. Terrence Williams [SF-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 11, overall]
2. Courtney Lee [OG], trade
3. Rafer Alston [PG], trade
4. Tony Battie [PF-C], trade

TORONTO RAPTORS
Significant Losses
1. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
2. Shawn Marion [PF-SF], UFA/Sign & trade
3. Kris Humphries [PF], trade
4. Nathan Jawai [PF-C], trade
5. Anthony Parker [OG-SF-PG], UFA
6. Joey Graham [SF], UFA
7. Roko Ukic [PG], trade
8. Carlos Delfino [SF-OG], trade

Significant Adds
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 9, overall]
3. Hedo Turkoglu [SF], Sign & trade
4. Antoine Wright [SF-OG], trade
5. Jarrett Jack [PG-OG], RFA
6. Marco Belinelli [OG-SF-PG], trade
7. Rasho Nesterovic [C-PF], UFA
8. Amir Johnson [PF], trade 

NEW YORK KNICKS
Significant Losses
1. Quentin Richardson [SF-OG], trade
2. Chris Wilcox, PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Danilo Gallinari [SF-PF], returns from injury
2. Jordan Hill [PF-C], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 8, overall]
3. Toney Douglas [PG-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 29, overall]
4. Darko Milicic [PF-C], trade
5. Sun Yue [PG], UFA

While several NBA observers seem to think the Raptors SHOULD be much improved this coming season, based on the wholesale changes made to their roster … this corner does not necessarily share that same opinion, when evaluated against the LOSSESS & ADDS of the other teams in their Division.

Q1. Have the Raptors improved, overall, from last season, relative to their competition?

A1. Maybe; maybe not … is the correct answer, at this point.

The Knicks and Nets are in re-building mode, and the Raptors SHOULD have been expected to finish this coming season in NO WORSE than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Celtics and, possibly, the 76ers … even if they would have done “nothing” substantive to improve their team this summer.

However, given that doing “nothing” was in fact the OPPOSITE of what the Raptors decided to do this off season … i.e. see above … it SHOULD now be EXPECTED that this supposedly improved team SHOULD finish NO WORSE than in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Celtics.

Once this expectation is established, what then becomes interesting is …

if the divisional standings eventually look something like this:

ATLANTIC
1 Boston
2 Toronto or Philadelphia
3 Philadelphia or Toronto
4 New York or New Jersey
5 New Jersey or New York

and the conference standings eventually look something like this:

SOUTHEAST
1 Orlando
2 Atlanta or Miami or Washington
3 Miami Atlanto or Washington
4 Washington or Atlanta or Miami
5 Charlotte

CENTRAL
1 Cleveland
2 Detroit or Chicago or Indiana
3 Chicago or Detroit or Indiana
4 Indiana or Detroit or Chicago
5 Milwaukee

and the playoff race eventually looks something like this:

Eastern Conference
1-2-3 Orlando - High End, Southeast
1-2-3 Cleveland - High End, Central
1-2-3 Boston - High End, Atlantic

4-5-6 Atlanta - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Miami - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Washington - Upper Middle, Southeast

7-8-9-10-11-12 Detroit - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Chicago - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Indiana - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Toronto - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Philadelphia - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Charlotte - Low End, Southwest

12-13-14-15 Milwaukee - Low End, Central
12-13-14-15 New York - Low End, Atlantic
12-13-14-15 New Jersey - Low End, Atlantic

indicating, perhaps, that the relative strength of each division may be shifting this season:

#1. Southeast
#2. Central
#3. Atlantic 

IF a scenario like this is eventually what plays out this season, then, how much will the Raptors really have improved this summer, relative to the other teams in their Division and the Eastern Conference, as a whole?

Alex Trebek: Stan, where to next?

Stan Van Gundy: Thanks, I’ll take, ‘Great Last Second Plays, Courtney Lee’ … for the Win.

Alex Trebek: [The Answer] So Close … but, Oh, So Far.

Stan Van Gundy: [The Question] What’s an open lay-up that might NEVER come again?

Alex Trebek: I’m afraid that’s not THE exact question we’re looking for. The correct question is, “What’s the Difference Between Winning & Losing Game Two?”

Let’s see how much you wagered.

Stan Van Gundy: The whole shh-bang, Alex. Everything I have!

Alex Tribek: Oh, Stan, I’m awfully sorry; but, hopefully, the parting gifts will bring you some consolation.

Stan Van Gundy: Thanks, but no thanks, Alex. When you think like we do. My brother, Jeff, and me. The ONLY thing that counts … at this level of competition … is actually WINNING!

Can we possibly make ‘Best 4-out-of-7?

Alex Trebek: Sorry, Stan. That’s not how it works around here.

Stan Van Gundy: Thanks, Alex. YOU CAN’T BLAME a guy for TRYING [his very best]. Sometimes, things just don’t work out the you’ve planned.

———–

Related: A Career-Defining Moment, Missed

Current Odds To Win This Series
Orlando +245
LOS ANGELES -265

The first question which needs to be asked and then answered regarding this series is:

Q1. What 5-Man Unit will the Lakers use to begin Game One?

A1. Either, Option I, Option II or Option III [see below]:

Q2. Which Option actually presents the better set of individual match-ups for each team?

A2. That’s the $64,000 Question for this series.

———-

Orlando’s Perspective

Option I
Gives the Magic their best opportunity to succeed, emphasizing Turkoglu’s Size & Skill Advantage vs Ariza, plus Lewis’ Quickness Advantage vs Gasol.

Option II
Limits the Magic to Turkoglu’s Size & Skill Advantage vs Ariza.  

Option III
Chokes Off the Magic’s Offense, eliminating their Individual Advantages. 

Los Angeles’ perspective

Option I
Gives the Lakers a chance to attack Lewis in the Pinch-Post position vs Gasol; but, exposes Gasol on the perimeter vs Lewis’ superior quickness.

Option II
Allows Bynum to work vs the Magic’s back-ups; but, exposes Gasol to be attacked by Howard in Low Block Post-ups.

Option III
Exposes Gasol to attacks by Howard; BUT, also ensures that Kobe can GO TO WORK vs Lee, unfettered, while, Bynum gets to work vs the Magic’s back-ups.

———-

Despite the Lakers now being a prohibitive favourite to win this series, there is still some legitimate “value” to be had with a play on the Magic, at +245 … if Los Angeles decides to go at Orlando with its customary M.O. [Option I].

That said, however, there is nothing about this series which SPELLS the word U-P-S-E-T, given the Individual Match-ups listed above.

———-

Related:

Charley Rosen’s 2009 NBA Finals Preview

Q1. Can the Cavaliers rebound from a 1-2 game deficit to win the EC Finals vs the Magic?

A1. Yes, they can.

Q2. Can the Nuggets claw their way back from a similar deficit to vanquish the Lakers in the WC Finals?

A2. Yes, they can.

———-

Both teams are capable of orchestrating a comeback to reach the Finals this season, based on the prodigious talents of players like Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony & Chauncey Billups.

However … that specific scenario is now quite unlikely to happen.

How come?

From top to bottom, and when healthy …

The two best teams in the NBA today are the Orlando Magic and the Los Angeles Lakers, and each one is simply too good to be overcome by their respective opponents in their conference finals series, both of which are missing key elements when it comes to actually winning the championship.

What The Cavaliers Are Still Missing

* Their best 5-Man Unit has yet to play any significant time together during their series vs Orlando, i.e. PG/Gibson, OG/Pavlovic, SF/James, PF/Varejao & C/Ilgauskas

* Mike Brown needs to develop a better feel for the game, and increased dexterity, as a Head Coach

* A 2nd Marquee Player at the Guard and/or Forward position with good size

What The Nuggets Are Still Missing

* A team playing a thuggish brand of basketball will not win the NBA Championship … because the rules of the game, rightfully, will not allow it

* More poise under pressure from players not named Chauncey Billups

* At least one more year’s worth of experience which goes beyond the 1st Round of the Playoffs

———- 

Looking back on the 2008-2009 regular season schedule:

December 20, 2008, Lakers at Magic, 103-106
January 16, 2009, Lakers vs Magic, 103-109

it’s most likely that this year’s NBA Finals series will have the makings of an all-time classic … even though the current MVP may well have been eliminated from the competition, by that point.

———-

On May 19, 2009 the wagering odds to win the 2008-2009 NBA Title were as follows:

Los Angeles Lakers
Yes/+220
No/-250 

Orlando Magic
Yes/+1800
No/-2300

both of which are looking like very solid propositions with each passing day.

———-

Throughout their rosters, both teams have What it takes to win the NBA Championship this season:

Orlando Magic [59-23]
PDR - 4
PAR - 6
RDR - 9
QR -19
QIR - 5
Rafer Alston, Anthony Johnson, Courtney Lee, Tyronn Lue, JJ Redick, Mickael Pietrus, Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Tony Battie, Adonal Foyle, Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat & Stan Van Gundy

Los Angeles Lakers [65-17]
PDR - 2
PAR - 14
RDR - 5
QR - 21
QIR - 6
Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Kobe Bryant, Sasha Vujacic, Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Josh Powell, DJ Mbenga & Phil Jackson

Legend:
PDR - Points Differential Ranking; PAR - Points Allowed Ranking; RDR - Rebound Differential Ranking; QR - Qaulity Rating; QIR - Quality Index Ranking

———-

Related:

When Orlando has it going 

Current Odds To Win this Series
Orlando Magic +565
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -615

Although Cleveland has played very well to this point in the Playoffs, they do not enjoy a host of different match-up advantages vs Orlando, like they did vs Atlanta and Detroit.

In particular, the specific spots where the Cavaliers have possessed major advantages … i.e. at the PF/C positions, plus in terms of Quality Depth, overall … will not be the case in this series:

Power Forward/Center

* Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Joe Smith, Ben Wallace & JJ Hickson is a versatile and highly effective set of Bigs. So, too, however, is the combination of Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Tony Battie, Marcin Gortat & Adonal Foyle.  

Quality Depth

* The Cavs’ remaining group of Guards & Forwards: Lebron James, Mo Williams, Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, Wally Szerczbiak, Sasha Pavlovic & Tarence Kinsey is stout and highly serviceable. However, they are not a superior force, in comparison with the Magic’s corresponding group at those same positions: Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, Anthony Johnson, JJ Redick, Mikael Pietrus & Tyron Lue.

With a Series Price like THAT … Orlando [+565] is a VERY GOOD proposition.

———-

Please Note:
At the moment, the Cavaliers are +116 to NOT Win the 2008-2009 NBA Title. For those so inclined, this is a VERY GOOD proposition.

FINAL SCORE: 76ERS 89, Magic 114
Complete Game Info

When the individual match-ups are changed in a NBA playoff series, it can fundamentally alter the outcome of that specific game … which is what happened here last night.

Q1. Did Orlando miss Dwight Howard and Courtney Lee?
A1. Yes, they did … but not nearly as much as they were helped by getting ’smaller’, ‘more athletic’ and being able to ’stretch the defense more’ through the increased PT for JJ Redick [OG], Mikael Pietrus [SF] and Marcin Gortat [C] … each of whom is a better shooter than the player he replaced in the Magic’s line-up … versus a relatively small and athletic team like Philadelphia.

While the 76ers had match-up advantages at different positions vs the Magic when Orlando played with its regular rotation in this series … this was not the case last night when the absences of D12 & C-Lee forced Stan Van Gundy to shift his players around.

The better team asserted its dominance last night, as the lesser team was unable to respond appropriately with adjustments of its own. 

——————————————–

FINAL SCORE: ROCKETS 92, Blazers 76
Complete Game Info

When Brandon Roy injured his left knee in the 1st half of last night’s game, it spelled curtains for Portland. The Blazers are a terrific young team that will soon become a force to be reckoned with in the Western Conference but with their ’superstar’ functioning at less than 100%, they are simply not yet ready to step up and win an elimination game on the road, especially, minus a 2nd important player on their team [i.e. Martell Webster]. Houston was the better team last night and will present a formidable challenge for the LA Lakers in Round 2.

No one likes to see an NBA player sustain a serious injury of any kind.

Magic PG Nelson has torn labrum in right shoulder

However … with Mikael Pietrus [G-F] and Keith Bogans [G-F] now healthy, Orlando should use:

* JJ Redick, as their Starting PG 
* Anthony Johnson, as their primary Back-up PG [in his current role], and
* Courtney Lee, as their 3rd-string PG

since the following line-up is still plenty good enough to get the Magic to, at least, the Eastern Conference semi-finals this season.

STARTERS

1 - JJ Redick
2 - Mikael Pietrus
3 - Hedo Turkoglu
4 - Rashard Lewis
5 - Dwight Howard

KEY BENCH SUBS

1 - Anthony Johnson
2 - Courtney Lee
3 - Keith Bogans
4 - Tony Battie
5 - Marcin Gortat

RESERVES

4 - Brian Cook
5 - Adonal Foyle

EXTRAS

Jameer Nelson [injured]
Mike Wilks [injured]
Jeremy Richardson

——————

If he’s ever going to become a truly serviceable player in the NBA, at some point in his career, JJ Redick [6-4, 190] will need to adapt successfully to the Point Guard position … and, there’s no time like the present for him to accomplish this specific goal.

Otis Smith, Dave Twardzik, Stan Van Gundy and JJ Redick … the ball is your hands and the shot clock is ticking.

——————

NOTE: Option B - The Magic could always try to acquire a player like Blake Ahearn from the San Antonio Spurs or a veteran like Troy Hudson.