khandor’s sports blog

Where does your favourite team rank at the halfway point in the regular season schedule?

Related:

What it takes to win the NBA Championship

There are three main phases to the game of basketball:

i. Offense;
ii. Defense; and,
iii. Rebounding.

Developing an accurate understanding of the overall NBA talent which exists on the roster for each team at the beginning of the season is a fundamental aspect of properly evaluating the day-to-day goings-on across the league over the course of the season.

INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF TEAM ROSTERS IN NBA’S EASTERN CONFERENCE [as of Sun-Dec-25-2011]

When Kris Humphries was strictly a back-up front-court player for the Raptors [i.e. in 2006-2007, 2007-2008 and 2008-2009] … and, then, needlessly traded away in a multi-team package deal to acquire Hedo Turkoglu [i.e. see A and B for further details] … there were very few – if any – other voices in the on-line hoops community extolling his virtues, as a solid future starting-calibre Power Forward in the NBA, if afforded a legitimate opportunity to ply his trade properly. Some 3-5 years later, however …

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Free Agency: Big Names

Who I’d pursue

• Kris Humphries [#3]. How many people heard of him before this? Well, here at the Wages of Wins network, all of us. That’s because he’s been surprisingly productive. Another great value-for-your-dollar player, he could be a great asset to any team, especially one lacking rebounders.

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it is gratifying to see that this corner’s original assessment of Kris Humphries’ actual basketball talent … made well in advance of others – i.e. including both stats gurus [!] and non stats-based NBA observers – was indeed highly accurate, while the vast majority of naysayers, at the time, have now been proven wrong.

The fact is …

While there is little-to-no “competitive advantage” generated by player “evaluations” that are exclusively post facto, based on simple comparative stats analysis, there can be a great deal of “competitive advantage” generated by taking careful note of the specific opinions [i.e. in the form of "evaluations" AND "projections"] offered by someone who legitimately has the ability to make an accurate assessment of a player’s actual basketball ability as much as 3-5 years in advance.

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PS. Cheers, “yertu damkule.”

FYI …

According to what was written by David Friedman, on Thu-Jul-07-2011, in an article about the Cavaliers:

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Analyzing the collapse of the 2010-2011 Cleveland Cavaliers

“ … it will likely only become more difficult for Miami to win a championship, particularly if the lockout wipes out an entire season of James/Wade/Bosh in the prime of their careers.”

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According to what was written by yours truly, on Sun-Jul-10-2011 [published by the host at 11:56 PM], in a comment on David’s blog:

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Comments for “Analyzing the collapse of the 2010-2011 Cleveland Cavaliers”

David:

If someone was inclined to make you the following wager:

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During the course of the next 10 seasons, I say that the Miami Heat will, in fact, win at least 1 NBA Championship with Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and LeBron James on their team.

In contrast, you say that this will not happen.

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might you be inclined to accept it?

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According to what was written by David Friedman, on Mon-Jul-11-2011 [published by the host at 11:56 PM], in a reply comment on David’s blog:

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Comments for “Analyzing the collapse of the 2010-2011 Cleveland Cavaliers”

Khandor:

I said exactly what I intended to say on the subject and I am not foolish enough to wager about hypothetical happenings 10 years from now. We don’t even know if there will be a 2012 season, let alone what the salary cap/financial structure will look like when the NBA lockout eventually ends: there could even be a scenario in which the Heat have to break up the “Big Three” to get under the salary cap, so it is possible that the Heat may never win a championship with the nucleus that they had last season.

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According to what was then written by yours truly, on Mon-Jul-11-2011 [sometime after 5:05 AM], in a 2nd reply comment submitted to David’s blog:

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David:

re: “I said exactly what I intended to say on the subject and I am not foolish enough to wager about hypothetical happenings 10 years from now. We don’t even know if there will be a 2012 season, let alone what the salary cap/financial structure will look like when the NBA lockout eventually ends: there could even be a scenario in which the Heat have to break up the “Big Three” to get under the salary cap, so it is possible that the Heat may never win a championship with the nucleus that they had last season.”

1. Which is all the more reason someone who holds the opinion that you do – re: the supposedly increased difficulty Miami will have winning the NBA Championship during the next several seasons, with a core of Wade, Bosh and James, than they had this year – might actually be inclined to accept the wagering opportunity I outlined for you in my original comment, that was a follow-up question to the quote from your original article.

2. I asked you a simple question based on the quote from your original article. “What you’ve said” in the original article leads in the direction of the question I asked you and some might consider it disingenuous on your part not to answer it with a straight-forward, A. “Yes,” or, B. “No.”

3. Personally, I think your answer to the question asked might actually be, B. “No” … in which case, the extent to which you actually believe the original observation made in this quotation might be called into question by a thoughtful reader concerned with your own motivation for making it in the first place.

4. The British bookmakers who accepted the wager made by Gerry McIlroy and friends several years ago … i.e. that his young son Rory would actually win the British Open by a specified age, years in the future [somewhere in his mid-20s, IIRC] … were, in fact, MORE committed to their belief than you seem to be to your own observation about the difficulty Miami is likely to have winning the NBA championship with a core of Wade, Bosh and James.

PS. FWIW, at this point, I would not be prepared to bet my own hard-earned money on the threesome of Wade, Bosh and James winning the NBA title together, either, even though I believe that this will actually become EASIER for them to accomplish as each year goes by prior to them moving beyond their prime.

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which – interestingly enough – has not yet been published by the host … even though other, more recently submitted comments from other contributors do seem to have been published on his blog.

As each day goes by, it will certainly be intriguing to note, if and when David actually chooses to publish this comment on his blog … with a suitable reply, or not.

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PS. FWIW, please be aware that yours truly also happens to believe David Friedman is, in fact, one of the best and most accomplished NBA writers working in the business today.

When assessing accurately the prospects of future success for the Raptors, it is important to keep in mind where the other Eastern Conference franchises are right now and what their chances of future success will be, in comparison with Toronto.

To wit:

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Lose 60 then win 40

As of this day, none of the players on the roster have shown that they can be a future Top 20 player in the league, there’s been glimpses of greatness here and there, but if you watch enough NBA basketball, you know that scrubs everywhere have 20 point games on a nightly basis.

At the same time, a team can’t afford to overhaul every summer, and the reality is that the Raptors will take forward the core of DeRozan, Davis, Johnson and perhaps Bargnani into next year. So what do you with these guys next year? If there is going to be a season, the target for next year has to be 40 wins. That’s a number that signals that a team is good, but lacking a piece or two to take them to the next level. That’s the number where fans can get excited about the future, knowing that they have a stable base. It’s the number that the Raptors have to get to which will signal that they’ve overcome the loss of Chris Bosh and have started anew.

How do you get to 40 wins? Improve defensively. You know the stats, you’ve seen the games, the Raptors are a terrible defensive team (dead last in the NBA for the second straight season) with problems ranging all the way from schemes to personnel to attitude to accountability and the list goes on. There is no hope for this franchise if they don’t become, at the very least, a middle-of-the-pack defensive team by next season.

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If you compare the respective situations for Toronto and Cleveland:

and, then, answer the following poll question:

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it might shed some new light on the correctness of your own perception of exactly where these two franchises actually stand, going forward, in terms of their individual capacity to begin to climb up the league standings next season.

At the 35 game mark this season, the Cavaliers’ W-L record looks like this:

8 Wins, 27 Losses, .229 Win%

However …

When you compare how Cleveland has fared, so far:

IN CATEGORY 1 GAMES

- When Jamario Moon has been used for more than 20 minutes

6 Wins, 9 losses [Win%/.333];

versus, how Cleveland has fared, so far:

IN CATEGORY 2 GAMES

- When Jamario Moon has been used for less than 20 minutes [or not played at all]

2 Wins, 18 losses [Win%/.100];

the picture begins to take on a slightly different focus.

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Although Byron Scott might not actually “like” different aspects of Mr. Moon’s individual character, or his limited positionally-specific skill-set … if the Cavs’ head coach truly wants to win a higher percentage of games for what’s left of the 2010-2011 season, then … he will need to start using the resources which are at his disposal in a different way than he has since Jamario Moon was removed from the Cavaliers starting line-up, and then relegated to the bench, as a non-rotation player.

At this point of the NBA regular season schedule, each team has played at least 30 games.

Given the history of the NBA … and what it actually takes to be able to win 4 consecutive best-of-seven games series in the playoffs … there is now a strong possibility that the 2010-2011 League Championship will eventually be won by 1 of the 8 teams shown above in “neon green”.

To everyone who takes the time to visit this little corner of the blogosphere …

Happy New Year!

When Toronto’s basketball brain-trust made the decision to complete the two trades which they made this past weekend that obtained the following 2 players:

Jerryd Bayless [PG/OG] and Peja Stojakovic [SF]

in exchange for the following 3 players:

Jarrett Jack [PG/OG], David Andersen [C] and Marcus Banks [PG]

it accomplished several inter-related things:

1. Opened up a roster spot that will probably be used to sign Erick Dampier [C];

2. Solidified Jose Calderon’s role with this year’s squad, as the Starting PG;

3. Opened up increased playing time for the No. 9 [overall] Selection from the 2010 NBA Draft – i.e. Ed Davis [PF-C] - who is due to re-join their active roster shortly after completing his rehabilitation assignment to the D-League;

4. Improved their chances of competing for a lower tier playoff spot in the Eastern Conference [i.e. No. 6, No. 7 and No. 8] this season;

5. Reduced their chances of finishing in the basement of the Eastern Conference this season;

and,

6. Effectively eliminated their opportunity to obtain Harrison Barnes [G/F, 6-8, 210], as a franchise-changing player who will be available this summer … as a likely Top 3 Selection in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery.

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This is what the NBA Standings look like today, in the aftermath of yesterday’s thrilling victory by the Raptors [5-9/.357, T-12th] over the visiting Celtics [9-4/.692, 2nd];

and, this – i.e. please click on the link - is a comparative evaluation of the rosters for the different teams in the East that should now be able to effectively compete for the last 3 playoff spots this year, as the regular season continues to unfold.

Where the Raptors once had a legitimate chance to obtain a dominant player in next summer’s NBA Draft Lottery, today, this is no longer the case.

Unfortunately …

Personnel moves like these are yet more instances of this franchise opting for a “short term” boost in on-court performance with increased financial flexibility, rather than following a detailed, costly and highly integrated “long term” plan which is designed to gradually improve the organization over a period of years, while also increasing their opportunity to achieve major success, as one of the authentic dominant teams in the NBA.

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Update:

Please see this specific blog entry - from Tuesday, November 24, 2010 - for a more expansive version of why these two trades from this past weekend have improved the NBA talent level on the Raptors’ current – and future – roster this season. 

According to the most recent reports … i.e. Cavaliers-Raptors Preview … Anderson Varejao [PF-C] will not be in the line-up this evening for the visiting Cavaliers.

If the home side should manage to lose this game, with their first west coast road trip of the regular season schedule set to kick off on Monday:

Mon Nov 1 @ Sacramento Kings
Wed Nov 3 @ Utah Jazz
Fri Nov 5 @ LA Lakers
Sat Nov 6 @ Portland Trail Blazers

there’s a very real possibility for the Raptors to be 0-6, by the time they play their next game in the cozy confines of the ACC.

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The first published wagering line for this evening’s game was listed as:

Toronto -2.5/-110

The currently published wagering line, however, is now showing as:

Toronto -3.0/-108 [as of 8:15 AM]

Although this is not the NBA game which will be given out to KSS clients today, the Cavs should also be a solid selection, at +3.0 … if Byron Scott is able to use Leon Powe [PF-C], as the primary replacement for Varejao, while continuing to feature JJ Hickson [PF], as his go-to scorer, with Antawn Jamison [PF] coming off the bench … and, especially, if this line continues to rise, in their favour, as tip-off approaches. 

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Up-date:

The currently published wagering line for this game is now …

Toronto -3.5/-104 [as of 11:00 AM].

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PS. Despite what many Raptors fans might think about them, each of Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker and [even] Joey Graham [Reserve-?] are solid NBA players – if used in their proper roles – who are quite capable of succeeding on a lower tier playoff team … when working under a top notch coach and without the benefit of playing beside a ‘superstar’ teammate … in comparison with their current counterparts in Toronto’s line-up.

Opening Night high-lights of the Tip-off to the NBA Pre-season