khandor’s sports blog

On June 23 2009, prior to that year’s NBA Draft, this corner said that the Raptors should trade down from the No. 9 position, in order to secure the services of more than just one good-to-very good young player, to go along with Toronto’s best player, Chris Bosh [C/PF].

With the 9th Pick of the 2009 NBA Draft, the Toronto Raptors …

If the Raptors would have followed this simple prescription, at that specific point in time, instead of acquiring the services of DeMar DeRozan [OG/SF], in all likelihood, the last 2 seasons would have played out very differently for [1] Toronto, [2] Chicago and [3] Miami:

For example …

i. The Raptors might not have made the trade for Hedo Turkoglu [SF] at all;
ii. The Raptors [40-42, 9th/EC] might actually have made the playoffs in 2009-2010;
iii. The Raptors might then have been able to retain the services of Chris Bosh last summer;
iv. The Bulls [41-41, 8th/EC] might not have made the playoffs in 2009-2010;
v. The Bulls might then not have been able to obtain the services of Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, CJ Watson, Ronnie Brewer, Keith Bogans, Kurt Thomas and Omir Asik and Rasual Butler during the last 12 months; and,
vi. The Heat might then not have been able to obtain the services of LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Mike Miller, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Juwon Howard last summer.

Those Raptors fans who still believe that Bryan Colangelo is something other than “just an average GM” in the NBA:

are, quite simply, delusional.

LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, CJ Watson, Ronnie Brewer, Keith Bogans, Kurt Thomas, Omir Asik, Mike Miller, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Juwon Howard did not leave their respective teams and sign with Miami and Chicago because they did not enjoy playing in Cleveland, Toronto, Utah, Orlando, Milwaukee, Turkey, Washington and Portland.

The chief reason they each chose to seek employment with their current team is because they each believed the GM for that franchise is someone who actually knows what he is doing, when it comes to being able to build a legitimate contender for the NBA championship.

According to Ryan Wolstat [whose basketball opinions are usual quite sound] …

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Calderon vs Jack; NBA pitching contraction

A few quick things today. Had a good discussion on Twitter Thursday about Jose Calderon vs. Jarrett Jack in the starting lineup. I don’t get it and it seems very few people do. Jose looks like a shell of his former self, he isn’t helping the team much and he is helping his trade value even less.

I’m not huge into the +- stat in basketball, but it isn’t completely useless. Calderon is -15 for the pre-season playing almost exclusively with the starters, Jack is +29 playing mostly with the reserves. Calderon is shooting 28% and 9% fromt three, meanwhile Jack is posting absurd numbers that won’t last (north of 70% from three). I know Jack is playing extremely well with the second unit, but the Raptors aren’t going to win games if the first unit puts them in a hole – which it will if Calderon tries to guard the likes of Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, Jrue Holiday, John Wall, etc., etc., etc. Teams don’t do well when they are always battling back from a deficit. At least if Calderon is coming off the bench he will only have to guard backup point guards.

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If, however, you take a careful look at …

A. The actual Play-By-Play from Wednesday’s game between the Raptors [i.e. Calderon & Jack] and the Bulls [i.e. Rose & Watson],

and, then, examine:

B. The following “Substitution Chart”:

what you should be able to see is that:

C. The Plus/Minus [+/-] comparison between the 4 Point Guards

Reveals the following 3 observations:

#1. It is a complete fallacy to believe/perceive/think/suggest that Jose Calderon was/is unable to be successful defensively when matched-up against the likes of Derrick Rose [i.e. the Bulls' starting PG], in comparison with Jarrett Jack;

and,

#2. A main reason why the Raptors were, in fact, able to maintain contact with the Bulls in this game, in the first place, was because of the way in which Jarrett Jack was able to succeed during his shifts on the floor vs CJ Watson [not Derrick Rose];

and,

#3. Two main reasons why the Raptors were not able to eventually beat the Bulls were:

i. The relatively poor play of Jose Calderon against both Derrick Rose and CJ Watson;

and,

ii. The exceptionally poor play of Jarrett Jack against Derrick Rose, specifically.

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PS. In addition to the 3 points mentioned above, what should also be quite clear from the “Substitution Chart” is the actual degree to which Coach Triano’s decision to use the combination of Jarrett Jack [PG] and Leandro Barbosa [OG] against the Bull’s back-court pairing of Derrick Rose [PG] and Ronnie Brewer [OG] was wholly unsuccessful!

Thus far, this summer, every personnel move made by the Magic has been Right on the Money!

Magic close to signing C.J. Watson
The Orlando Magic are close to signing free agent point guard C.J. Watson, giving them an alternative to veteran Anthony Johnson as a backup to often-injured Jameer Nelson.

According to NBA sources, Watson could be signed as early as this weekend. Watson last season averaged 9.5 points and 2.7 assists, mostly as a backup for the Warriors. Golden State would have seven days to match any offer, since Watson is a restricted free agent.

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Yes, C.J. Watson is a restricted free agent and Golden State still has the right to match this offer from Orlando in order to retain his services … but, if the the Warriors decide to decline this opportunity, given the other PG’s they have on their roster, the Magic will have struck gold once again during the free agency period.

Whatever criticism may have been levied towards Otis Smith & Dave Twardzik prior to last season needs to be discarded as complete nonsense. No one makes a series of inter-connected moves over an extended period of time … like these manoeuvres … without having a well-formulated plan in place that is being gradually unfurled like clockwork. 

When you look at their roster from three seasons ago [40-42/.488, 3rd place Southeast] … and, then, compare it to what’s there now, surrounding a stud like D12 [C]:

STARTERS
1 Jameer Nelson, PG, 6th yr
2 Vince Carter, OG, 12th yr
3 Rashard Lewis, SF-PF, 12th yr 
4 Brandon Bass, PF, 5th yr
5 Dwight Howard, C, 6th yr

KEY SUBS
6 Anthony Johnson, PG, 13 yr
7 JJ Redick, OG, 4th yr
8 Mickael Pietrus, SF, 7th yr
9 Ryan Anderson, PF, 2nd yr
10 Marcin Gortat, C, 3rd yr

KEY RESERVES
11 C.J. Watson, PG, 3rd yr - ? [restricted free agent/Golden State]  
12 Jeremy Richardson, SF, 4th yr - ? [restricted free agent/Orlando]
13 Player X, PF/C - ? 

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Legend:
Italics – Added 2 seasons ago; Bold Italics – Added 1 season ago; Bold – Added this season.
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it’s a treat to see High End pro’s like this in action.

There’s a tonne of information on-line right now but this one, courtesy of John Schuhmman, is as sound and concise as any:

Position-by-position: Top 5 free agents
As we’ve seen in the NBA Draft over the years, the best strategy is usually to take the best player available. You never know how draft picks will turn out, so selecting the guy closest to a sure thing, even if you’ve already got a similar player on your roster, is often the prudent way to go.

In free agency, though, teams pretty much know what kind of player they’re getting. Teams have seen what these guys can do and are able to better evaluate what they’re capable of and what they can bring to their team.

So the next few weeks will be about finding the right fit, both on the court and on the payroll.

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By position, the following players are under-rated [#, indicates where they should be ranked] in this year’s Free Agent class, according to yours truly:

POINT GUARDS
* Ramon Sessions [#1]
* Jarret jack [#2]
* CJ Watson [#6]

OFF GUARDS
* Anthony Parker [#1]

SMALL FORWARDS
* None

POWER FORWARDS
* Antonio McDyess [#3]
* Brandon Bass [#7]
* James Singleton [#9]

CENTERS
* Johan Petro [#4]

When yours truly sees this type of observation being made repeatedly in on-line articles and commentary by traditional media sources, bloggers, and members of the Raptors’ fanbase …

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Reasons for concern in Raptorville
The defenceless point guard

In his first year as starting point guard, Jose Calderon has kept up his efficient offensive ways, with a league-leading 4.18 assists for every turnover.

But on the other end of the floor, opposing point guards routinely light up Calderon. Tony Parker had 24 points and 10 assists against him. Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook had 19 points and eight assists. Devin Harris has torched Calderon in two decisive fourth quarters.

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it indicates that there is still a significant level of basketball sophistication that has yet to be reached by many of the followers of this team.

The average Raptors fan has seen Jose Calderon play each and every game of his NBA career to-date; but this does NOT mean that said fan has a sound/accurate understanding of the game, in general, and how it should be played properly, concerning a player like the Raptors’ starting PG.

In reality … while Jose Calderon will never be confused for a top notch defensive player … he is far from being an atrocious defender at the PG position in the NBA.

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Specific Defensive Responsibilities of a PG for a team in the NBA

Situation #1. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. Pressure/contain the opposition’s PG, 1-on-1.

Situation #2. In a half-court situation when there is a Pick being set on him. Direct the opposition’s PG toward the Picker – in conjunction with the Picker’s defender – and then recover [by going either under or over, depending on the specific defensive tactic being used] to defend the PG on the dribble.

Situation #3. In a transition situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To contain the opposition’s PG on the dribble, 1-on-1.

Situation #4. In a transition situation when there is a Pick being set on him. To contain the opposition’s PG on the dribble, in conjunction with the Picker’s defender.

Situation #5. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To switch defensive responsibilities with a teammate who has the task of defending against an opposition player who plays a different position and is, therefore, usually a bigger player. 

Situation #6. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To initiate defensive double-teams and traps against opponent players who are very skilful at scoring either in the Low Post or on drives from the perimeter into the lane.

Situation #7. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him.  To rotate appropriately in order to provide the necessary help for a teammate who has been beaten on a dribble penetration move by an opponent.

Situation #8. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To rotate appropriately in order to provide the necessary help for a teammate who has had to rotate to assist a teammate that has been beaten on a dribble penetration move by an opponent, i.e. Help-the-helper.

Situation #9. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To close-out appropriately versus an opponent shooter, contesting the shot and containing that player on the dribble.

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When Jose Calderon is injury-free, the vast majority of his individual defensive breakdowns occur in Situation #2, as a result of a Big-on-Little Pick, where the main culprit isn’t actually Calderon at all but the Raptors’ Big involved in defending this specific action.

If Andrea Bargnani [who is the worst offender], Jermaine O’Neal [who is the 2nd worst offender], Chris Bosh [who is fairly good at this] and Kris Humphries [who is the most proficient at this], as a group, do a poor job defensively when:

i. Switching
ii. Showing & Recovering, or
iii. Trapping

in a 5/4-on-1 Pick scenario … and the opponent’s PG is able to dribble penetrate into the heart of the Raptor’s defense on a consistent basis, primarily, this is not the fault of the Dino’s PG.

When assessing Jose Calderon’s individual defense … encompassing those Nine Situational Categories … versus that provided by the other starting PGs across the League, this is what you should be able to see:

which would place him in the middle-of-the-pack, approximately, not towards the bottom. 

A long time ago a very good basketball coach taught yours truly something about the game which has never been forgotten.

Question

What is the basketball shot that is arguably the most difficult to defend against once the shooter already has the ball in his/her possession?

Answer

The direct offensive rebound put-back.

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When a basketball team does not have enough REBOUNDERS on the court, at a crucial moment in a game, it:

1. Substantially reduces its own opportunities to get and make the specific shot which is quite possibly the highest percentage FGA there is … other than an uncontested layup in transition;

and, simultaneously,

2. Substantially increases the opponent’s opportunities to get and make the same type of high percentage shot.

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FINAL SCORE: Raptors 111, WARRIORS 117
Game Info; Box Score; Full Play-By-Play

What killed the Raptors in this game wasn’t just that they missed 4 wide open 3PT-shots coming down the stretch of a close game with a chance to take the lead versus Golden State … but exactly what TYPE of shots THOSE specific attempts were at THAT crucial juncture of the game with the line-up they had on the floor at that time:

1/Calderon + 2/Parker + 3/Kapono + 4/Graham + 5/Bosh

Much like the key basket which Andre Biedrins hit for the Warriors, at the 02:05 mark of the 4th quarter … which followed a missed driving layup by CJ Watson with a simple put-back; as Chris Bosh had left Biedrins, momentarily, to deter Watson’s initial shot attempt and, then, was unable to recover quickly enough to stop his original check from scoring … what the Raptors NEEDED most at that specific moment in the game was an OFFENSIVE REBOUND PUT-BACK, which they would have been more likely to get from a line-up with:

Calderon + Moon + Graham + Humphries + Bosh

at crunch time, rather than the TYPE of shots which they took during possessions #5, #6, #7 & #8, i.e. four consecutive missed 3PT-shots by Parker, Kapono, Calderon and Kapono:

Full Play-By-Play

#1. Bosh Made Jump Hook – 04:55 … Tor 99, GSW 104
#2. Graham Missed Turn-around Jump Shot [blocked by Biedrins] – 04:17
#3. Calderon Made 2 FTs – 03:53 … Tor 101, GSW 106
#4. Bosh Made J3 – 03:29 … Tor 104, GSW 106
#5. Parker Missed J3 – 03:09
#6. Kapono Missed J3 – 02:37 [O-Reb: Graham]
#7. Calderom Missed J3 – 02:24
#8. Kapono Missed J3 – 01:51 [O-Reb: Graham]
#9. Graham Missed J2 – 01:48 [O-Reb: Bosh]
#10. Kapono Missed J3 – 01:42
#11. Kapono Made Running J2 – 01:10 … Tor 106, GSW 108

During this specific sequence, the best shots the Raptors took were:

Possession #I
At the 04:55 mark, when they isolated Chris Bosh on the Right Block vs Captain Jack, cleared the right side of the floor, and allowed CB4 to get his jump-hook off in the lane [#1];

and,

Possession #9
At the 01:48 mark, when Joey Graham was able to corral an offensive rebound of a missed 3PT-shot attempt but then wasn’t able to convert the direct put-back.

If the Raptors would have finished last night’s game with more REBOUNDERS on the floor …

e.g. Calderon + Moon + Graham + Hump + Bosh

they might have closed the deal on the Warriors, in a highly entertaining game … by generating a different type of shot attempt to begin with, and then even if they’d missed a couple, been in a better position [overall] to retrieve an offensive rebound in a spot on the floor from where a direct put-back opportunity would have been more likely to occur.

Coming down the stretch of a close game … high percentage shot attempts which are made are frequently generated by the REBOUNDERS and DEFENDERS a team chooses to have on the floor, or not, rather than the number of high percentage shooters in its 5-Man Unit.