Posts Tagged ‘Chris Wilcox’

Curing what ails the 2009-2010 Detroit Pistons

Friday, March 5th, 2010

After losing their last 2 games against the Boston Celtics and the New York Kincks, it will be very interesting to see how the Detroit Pistons respond this evening, when they journey to Cleveland to take on the team with the top W-L record in the NBA.

While many Pistons fans are lamenting the atrocious state of their squad which was sitting at the top end of the Eastern Conference just 2 seasons ago … this corner of the blogosphere does not share a similar level of doom and gloom concerning the goings-on in the Motor City over the last 12 months.

If the Pistons’ everyday rotation/line-up was to look like this:

STARTERS
1. PG, Stuckey [32 MPG, best multi-dimensional PG with good size]
2. OG, Hamilton [32 MPG, best offensive Wing scorer with good size]
3. SF, Prince [30 MPG, best defensive/rebounding Wing player]
4. PF, Maxiell [26 MPG, best rebounding front-court player]
5. C, Brown [22 MPG, best interior defensive/rebounding player]

KEY SUBS
6. PG-OG, Gordon [32 MPG, best combination Guard with solid perimeter J]
7. SF, Jerebko [18 MPG, best defensive/rebounding back-up Wing]
8. PF, Villanueva [22 MPG, best perimeter-oriented scoring Big]
9. C, Wallace [28 MPG, best interior defensive/rebounding Big]

RESERVES
10. OG-SF, Daye [injury replacement minutes which would be a lot this yr]
11. SF-PF, Summers [injury replacement minutes which would be a lot this yr]

EXTRAS
12. PG, Atkins [DNP-CD]

OUTS [who should be package with another asset in exchange for an inside scoring Big]
13. PG, Bynum [amongst the very best back-up PG's in the NBA]
14. PF-C, Wilcox

what Detroit would find is that:

- the rhythm for their 3 principal Guards [i.e. Hamilton, Stuckey and Gordon] would be much improved
- the quality of their PG play overall would be more consistent [i.e. with Stuckey and Gordon, exclusively, running this team]
- their overall level of “Team Cohesion” would improve significantly
- their interior defense would be improved
- their Guard oriented Team Scoring output would be much improved

ROSTER COMPARISON FOR DETROIT AND CLEVELAND

Pos

PISTONS

RATING

Pos

CAVALIERS

RATING

COACH

 

Kuester

1

 

Brown

3

SUB-TOTAL

1

SUB-TOTAL

3

STARTERS

PG

Stuckey

3

PG

Williams-M

3

OG

Hamilton

4

OG

Parker

3

SF

Prince

4

SF

James

5

PF

Maxiell

3

PF

Jamison

4

C

Brown

3

PF-C

Hickson

3

SUB-TOTAL

17

SUB-TOTAL

18

KEY SUBS

PG-OG

Gordon

4

PG-OG

West

4

SF

Jerebko

3

OG-SF

Moon

3

PF

Villanueva

3

PF

Powe *

3

C

Wilcox *

3

PF-C

Varejao

4

SUB-TOTAL

13

SUB-TOTAL

14

RESERVES

PG

Atkins

2

PG

Gibson

3

OG-SF

Daye

3

SF

Williams-J

3

SF-PF

Summers

2

PF

Jackson

2

SUB-TOTAL

7

SUB-TOTAL

8

TOTAL

38

TOTAL

43

EXTRAS/OUTS

PG

Bynum #

4

OG-SF

Green

3

PF-C

Wallace

Injured

C

O’Neal

Injured

LEGEND: RATING – From 5 [highest] to 1 [lowest]; Pos – Position; * - Replacement for injured player; # - Valuable player who should be traded in a package with another asset, in exchange for an interior scoring Big.  

Contrary to popular belief, this year’s Pistons team actually has a good deal of solid NBA talent that is simply not being used properly by their head coach.

———————————–

PS. Just because Daye [i.e. talented OG-SF scorer] and Summers [i.e. talented PF-SF defender/rebounder] haven’t been given the opportunity to play a whole lot of minutes yet this season, Pistons fans should not make the mistake of thinking that either player has a lower long term ceiling than Jonas Jerebko, who has shown great promise thus far in the limited [but increasing] minutes he has received. Pistons fans were told in the summer that the player they were getting in Jerebko has REAL ability to become a solid contributor to a high end team in the NBA, as his career continues to develop. Few chose to believe what they were told at the time. Time has proven, once again, that they were wrong, and that what was said by yours truly was highly accurate. Well, the exact same thing also applies to Daye and Summers. As the next 2 years continue to unfold, what astute Pistons fans should begin to see more and more is that both of these young men have the capacity to develop into frontline contributors for Detroit, down-the-road a piece … provided that each one is eventually used properly by the team’s head coach who, unfortunately, should be someone other than John Kuester. Until Joe Dumars fixes his problem, in this regard, and identifies a proven high end NBA head coach [e.g. Jeff Van Gundy] who can lead his team properly, the abundant talent on this team is merely going to waste.

Specific reasons why the Pistons lost another winnable game

Thursday, March 4th, 2010

As a follow-up to yesterday’s take on the sorry state of the once-proud Detroit Pistons …

Detroit Pistons 104 [21-40]
NEW YORK KNICKS 128 [21-39]

Complete Game Info

———————————————

Coming off a tough loss on Tuesday night, at home against the Boston Celtics, Detroit played New York fairly even for the first 32 minutes of last night’s match-up at Madison Square Garden, and trailed by only 5 points at the 4:02 mark of the 3rd quarter, when John Kuester made the decision to replace Rodney Stuckey/PG with Will Bynum:

 

PLAYER SUBSTITUTION CHART

 

TIME

TEAM

PG

OG

SF

PF

C

Start

End

Diff

3rd Quarter

04:02

DET

Bynum

Gordon

Prince

Jerebko

Maxiell

73

76

0

 

NYK

McGrady

House

Gallinari

Harrington

Lee

80

83

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

02:56

DET

Bynum

Gordon

Prince

Jerebko

Maxiell

76

85

-2

 

NYK

Rodriguez

House

Walker

Gallinari

Lee

83

94

+2

4th Quarter

12:00

DET

Bynum

Gordon

Hamilton

Jerebko

Villanueva

85

91

-1

 

NYK

Rodriguez

House

Walker

Gallinari

Lee

94

101

+1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08:49

DET

Bynum

Gordon

Hamilton

Jerebko

Villanueva

91

93

-11

 

NYK

McGrady

House

Walker

Harrington

Lee

101

114

+11

LEGEND: Red ShadeNew York player substitution; Blue ShadeDetroit player substitution; Orange ShadeNew York player shifted to a new position.

What others should be able to glean from the Pistons’ performance last night … throughout the contest and, specifically, at crunch time … is that WHEN their coach, John Kuester, chooses to:

1. Use Will Bynum [23 MP] as the primary Back-up to Rodney Stuckey [26 MP], at the PG position, instead of Ben Gordon [OG-PG, 23 MP];

2. Use Rip Hamilton [33 MP] at the SF position, from time to time, in a “going small” 5-man unit, rather than exclusively at the OG position;

3. Use Ben Gordon as the primary Back-up to Rip Hamilton, at the OG position, usually in conjunction with Will Bynum/PG, giving the Pistons one of the “smallest” and least effective guard combinations in the league when it comes to defense and rebounding;

4. Use Jason Maxiell [30 MP] as his Starting Center, rather than Kwame Brown [3 MP in garbage time] … while operating beside Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince [33 MP] and Jerebko [33 MP];

5. Use Jonas Jerebko as his Starting PF, rather than starting Jason Maxiell at that position and then bringing Charlie Villanueva [15 MP] off the bench as his primary Back-up;

6. Use Charlie Villanueva as his Back-up Center, rather than starting Kwame Brown at that position and then bringing Chris Wilcox [DNP-CD] off the bench as his primary Back-up;

7. Not use Austin Daye for more than 10 minutes, as a secondary Back-up at the OG & SF positions, in a game where he was the only member of the Pistons who generated a “positive” plus/minus number [i.e. +6], while shooting 43% from the floor, shooting 100% from the FT Line, with 3 Rebs, a positive Ast:TO and 1 St;

and,

8. Not use DeJaun Summers [6-8, 240] for more than 3 minutes, as a secondary Back-up at the SF & PF positions, in a game where their opponent chose to start [and give critical amounts of PT to] a “going big” 5-Man Unit that looked like this:

Option 1

PG, T-Mac [6-8, 223]
OG, Bill Walker [6-6, 230]
SF, Danilo Gallinari [6-10, 225]
PF, Al Harrington [6-9, 250]
C, David Lee [6-9, 250]

Option 2

PG, T-Mac [6-8, 223]
OG, Eddie House [6-1, 180] 
SF, Bill Walker [6-6, 230]
PF, Al Harrington [6-9, 250]
C, David Lee [6-9, 250];

then, the Pistons are unable to compete successfully on Offense, Defense and in terms of Rebounding.

While others in the on-line hoops community are certainly free to assign blame to whomever they think is most responsible for the current mess in Detroit, as far as these eyes are concerned, the Pistons’ main problem this season is rooted in the poor decision-making of their head coach, John Kuester … i.e. in terms of how he is choosing to use his personnel … which has consistently resulted in awful performances similar to last night’s atrocious display in the 4th quarter.

—————————

PS. Those who have followed this blog for the better part of the last 2 years should be able to readily attest that a simple observation of:

“What Team X needs to do in order to turn around their fortunes is fire their head coach,” 

is not the usual reaction from yours truly. In this case, however, there’s a good deal of solid “NBA level talent” that is simply going to waste in Detroit.

3-guard rotation does the trick for Stuckey and the Pistons

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

Here’s what yours truly had to say about the Pistons’ fortunes this season back in August and September [2009] with a few of their ardent and vociferous fans at the otherwise terrific site, DetroitBadBoys.com, concerning:

i. The continued development of Rodney Stuckey
ii. The proper role for Will Bynum
iii. The proper role for Rip Hamilton
iv. The proper role for Ben Gordon
iv. The proper role for Ben Wallace
v. The proper role for Jason Maxiell
vi. The proper role for Charlie Villanueva
vi. The proper roles for Jonas Jerebko, Austin Daye, DaJuan Summers and Deron Washington
vii. The proper decisions for John Kuester
viii. The effect of a 3-guard rotation on Team Cohesion
ix. The effect of Team Cohesion on Winning [i.e. Efficency, Effectiveness and Team Excellence]

It’s contagious

Yes, it’s a huge thread with 651 comments [!] … many of which are immature and inane by a certain sub-set of Pistons fans active on that site … but, if you take the time to parce out what was actually said there by yours truly, you should be able to see just how accurate many of those initial comments have been to this point in the Pistons’ season. :-)

Since that time there have been several other articles and discussions concerning the Pistons’ plight this season, at the guard positions, in a variety of different locations on-line:

Could Will Bynum become the Detroit Pistons’ franchise player? [Nov 18]

Bynum or Stuckey? [Nov 19]

Will Bynum > Rodney Stuckey [Nov 20]

Bynum gets love, Stuckey gets none [Nov 25]

Detroit: Stuckey or Bynum – who should start? [Nov 25]

culminating in yesterday’s declaration by the NBA:

Stuckey the East’s Player of the Week

If the Pistons’ long term goal is to eventually regain their former perch at the very top of the Eastern Conference, then, what they’ll continue to do this season is … exactly what yours truly said in the “It’s contagious” thread,

because when a lead guard like Rodney Stuckey [PG, 6-5] gets an opportunity to play the game in this way alongside other elite level performers like:

GUARDS and FORWARDS
Rip Hamilton [OG, 6-7], Ben Gordon [OG-PG, 6-3], Tayshaun Prince [SF, 6-9], Jonas Jerebko [SF, 6-9], Austin Daye [OG-SF, 6-10], Dajuan Summers [PF, 6-9] and Deron Washington [SF-OG, 6-7]

POWER FORWARDS and CENTERS
Ben Wallace [C, 6-9], Jason Maxiell [PF, 6-7], Charlie Villanueva [PF, 6-10], Kwame Brown [C, 7-0] and Chris Wilcox [PF-C, 6-9]

his team has a chance to become a dominant force for years to come, in the NBA, with the benefit of Top Notch coaching and personnel management.

Clearly defining the proper roles for your team’s 2 Point Guards [i.e. I. The Starter; and, II. The Primary Back-up] within an almost exclusively 3-guard rotation, at the Point and Off Guard positions, is a MAJOR COMPONENT of building an elite level squad, when:

* One of your MAIN COGS is an expensive free agent signee, like Ben Gordon, who just happens to be 6-3, 205, and a Combination Guard that can stretch the defense with long distance 3’s and by creating high percentage shots off the bounce, either, for himself or his teammates;

* Another of your MAIN COGS is a seasoned [and wily] veteran, like Rip Hamilton, who is an expert at moving without the ball in his hands and scoring within the mid-range area of the floor; and,

* The 3rd of your MAIN COGS is a terrific young stud, like Rodney Stuckey, with good size and physicality, plus the ability to [A] drive the ball to the bucket and score, [B] convert free throw attempts into points scored, [C] knock down open jump-shots, [D] create high percentage shots for teammates, and [E] Defend and Rebound his own position, in an elite level manner.

The Pistons have now won 5 games in a row, and 6 of their last 7, overall; including 2 solid home-court victories against Atlanta [17-6/.739; 2nd, Southeast] and Denver [17-7/.708; 1st, Northwest].

A healthy Rip Hamilton [OG] is now back in the starting line-up, beside Rodney Stuckey [PG].

It is going to be very interesting to see what John Kuester proceeds to do with a healthy Ben Gordon [OG-PG] and Will Bynum [PG], when each one is ready to return to the Pistons’ regular rotation.

If he slots Gentle Ben [OG-PG] into the rotation as Detroit’s #3 guard, in support of the Stuckey [PG]/Hamilton [OG] pairing … and, alongside of a Maxiell [PF]/Wallace [C] front-court tandem, with support from Villanueva and Brown, and a Small Forward split between Jerebko, Daye and an eventually healthy T-Prince … then LOOK OUT [!], because the Pistons will be joining the Hawks as the “next best two teams” in the EC this season, on the heels of the Celtics, Magic and Cavaliers.  

If he does not do this, however, and, instead, simply returns to using 3 [or more] Point Guards [i.e. Stuckey, Bynum, Gordon, and Atkins], on a regular basis, or using Rip Hamilton frequently at the SF position, in a “small” line-up, or using a 4-guard [or more] rotation, at the PG and OG positions [i.e. Stuckey and Hamilton; Bynum and Gordon; Player X and Atkins], etc., then, unfortunately, the Pistons will continue to flounder this season, hovering about the .500 mark and performing in an inconsistent manner. 

High End teams in the NBA have Quality Depth throughout their roster.

One of the other distinguishing characteristics of these teams, however, is that they are each intelligent enough to pare their rotation down to a “working group” of only 7, 8 or 9 [max.] players; with the rest being able to accept their fate and their proper lesser roles, as reserves, this season.

The first Moment of Truth this season is about to arrive for the Pistons.

How John Kuester chooses to handle it will become a defining moment of his tenure as the head coach for their team. 

Related:

Rip Hamilton praises Pistons coach John Kuester, team’s pluck

Where and how exactly the Pistons lost last night’s game vs the Raptors

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

Detroit Pistons 99
TORONTO RAPTORS 110
Wed Nov 04 2009 - Game Scoreboard

After battling back from a 17 point 3rd quarter deficit to take a 1 point lead mid-way through the 4th frame, the Pistons then came unglued during a key stretch of 4:25 which, ultimately, sealed their fate in this game:

Line-ups

Time

Team

PG

OG

SF

PF

C

SCORE

Q4

Det

Calderon

Jack

Turkoglu

Bosh

Bargnani

91

07:13

TOR

Bynum

Gordon

Stuckey

Maxiell

Daye

90

Play-By-Play

 

 

4th Quarter

 

#1,+ Daye/+1

 

07:13

Turkoglu Layup Shot: Missed Block: Daye (2 BLK

 

Daye Rebound (Off:0 Def:3) 

07:11

 

 

 

07:07

Bosh Foul : Shooting (1 PF) 

#2,- Maxiell/-1

Maxiell Free Throw 1 of 2 Missed 

07:07

 

 

Team Rebound 

07:07

 

#2,- Maxiell/-2

Maxiell Free Throw 2 of 2 Missed 

07:07

 

 

 

07:07

Turkoglu Rebound (Off:1 Def:3) 

#1,- Daye/0

Daye Foul : Personal (3 PF) 

06:52

 

 #3,- Bynum/-1

 

06:40
[TOR 93-91]

Calderon 3pt Shot: Made (9 PTS) Assist: Bosh (1 AST) 

#1,- Daye/-1

Daye 3pt Shot: Missed 

06:18

 

 

 

06:17

Bosh Rebound (Off:1 Def:5) 

 

 

06:08

Calderon Pullup Jump shot: Missed 

 #3,+ Bynum/0

Bynum Rebound (Off:0 Def:3) 

06:06

 

 #3,+ Bynum/+1

Bynum Driving Layup Shot: Made (15 PTS) 

05:58
[DET 93-93]

 

#2,- Maxiell/-3
#3,- Bynum/0

 

05:41
[TOR 95-93]

Bosh Jump Hook Shot: Made (22 PTS) Assist: Calderon (1 AST) 

 

Timeout : Official 

05:22

 

#3,- Kuester/-1

Maxiell Substitution replaced by Wallace 

05:22

 

#4,- Stuckey/-1

Stuckey Jump Shot: Missed 

05:16

 

 

 

05:15

Bosh Rebound (Off:1 Def:6) 

#1,- Daye/-2

Daye Foul : Shooting (4 PF) 

05:01

 

 

 

05:01
[TOR 96-93]

Bargnani Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS) 

 

 

05:01
[TOR 97-93]

Bargnani Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS) 

#1,- Daye/-3

Daye Running Bank shot: Missed 

04:41

 

 

 

04:39

Turkoglu Rebound (Off:1 Def:4) 

#1,- Daye/-4

Daye Foul : Personal (5 PF) 

04:33

 

 

 

04:33
[TOR 98-93]

Bargnani Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS) 

 

 

04:33
[TOR 99-93]

Bargnani Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS) 

#4,- Stuckey/-2

Stuckey Driving Layup Shot: Missed 

04:09

 

#4,+ Stuckey/-1

Stuckey Rebound (Off:2 Def:7) 

04:08

 

#4,- Stuckey/-2

Stuckey Tip Shot: Missed 

04:06

 

#5,+ Wallace/+1

Wallace Rebound (Off:4 Def:4) 

04:05

 

#5,- Wallace/0

Wallace Layup Shot: Missed 

04:04

 

#4,+ Stuckey/-1

Stuckey Rebound (Off:3 Def:7) 

04:04

 

#3,- Kuester/-2

Daye Substitution replaced by Villanueva 

04:04

 

 

Jump Ball Bosh vs Stuckey (Bargnani gains possession) 

04:04

 

#4,- Stuckey/-2

Stuckey Turnover : Lost Ball (1 TO) Steal:Bosh (2 ST) 

04:04

 

 #3,- Kuester/-3

 

03:47
[TOR 101-93]

Turkoglu Pullup Jump shot: Made (14 PTS) 

 

Team Timeout : Regular 

03:45

 

#6,+ Villanueva/+1

Villanueva Running Jump Shot: Made (16 PTS) 

03:27
[DET 95-101]

 

#6,- Villanueva/0

 

03:06
[TOR 103-95]

Bargnani Pullup Jump shot: Made (22 PTS) Assist: Jack (6 AST) 

#6,- Villanueva/-1

Villanueva Turnover : Bad Pass (2 TO) 

02:46

 

Individual Good/Bad

PISTONS

GOOD

BAD

#1 Jason Maxiell/-3

 

- missed FT

- missed FT
- failed to stop Bosh jump-hook

#2 Austin Daye/-5

- 1 BS
- DRb

- PF

- PF/2 made FT’s
- PF/2 made FT’s

- 1 missed corner 3
- 1 missed running bank shot

#3 Will Bynum/0

- 1 DRb
- 1 made driving layup

- cover down on Bosh = Calderon’s made 3
- cover down on Bosh = Jump-hook

#4 John Kuester/-3

 

- Subbed Maxiell w/Wallace

- Subbed Daye w/Villanueva
- Turkoglu’s made pull-up jumper

#5 Rodney Stuckey/-2

- ORb
- ORb

- 1 missed jumper

- 1 missed driving layup

- 1 missed tip shot

- 1 TO

#6 Ben Wallace/0

- 1 ORb

- 1 missed layup

#7 Charlie Villanueva/-1

- 1 made running jumper

- bit early on shot-fake 1 dribble jumper by Bargnani

- 1 TO

 

LES FAUX PAS DES PISTONS

1. Ben Gordon’s individual game stat line from last night looked like this: 

 

POS

MP

FGM-FGA

2FGM-2FGA

3FGM-3FGA

FTM-FTA

+/-

ORb

DRb

TRb

AST

PF

ST

TO

BS

BA

PTS

KPM

GORDON

G

45:30

10-19

8-14

2-5

8-9

-3

0

2

2

4

1

0

0

0

1

30

+23

yet, during this stretch of 4:25 in the 4th quarter … with the outcome of the game still in doubt … he did not have the opportunity to shoot the ball even 1 time.

2. When the Raptors made 3 substitution at the 8:42 mark of the 4th quarter … i.e. replacing Amir Johnson with Jose Calderon/PG, Marco Belinelli with Hedo Turkoglu/SF, and Demar DeRozan with Chris Bosh/PF; while leaving Jarrett Jack/OG and Andrea Bargnani/C on the floor … and the Pistons responded with a made 3-PT shot [vs Bargnani/Jack] and a driving layup by Bynum [vs Turkoglu] to re-gain the lead [91-90], John Kuester fell asleep at the switch and decided to continue with the same 5-man unit he had on the floor at the 7:22 mark when Jason Maxiell was called for a PF vs Chris Bosh [defending on the Left Block with the aid of a solid cover down by Rodney Stuckey].

At that precise point in the game John Kuester missed the opportunity to re-work the Pistons’ line-up so that:

* Jason Maxiell was not assigned to cover Chris Bosh

* Austin Daye was not assigned to cover Andrea Bargnani

* Rodney Stuckey was not assigned to cover Hedo Turkoglu

* Ben Gordon was not assigned to cover Jarrett jack

and,

* Will Bynum was not assigned to cover Jose Calderon.

If John Kuester would have made the following subs, instead:

Stuckey vs Calderon
Gordon vs Jack
Villanueva [replacing Bynum] vs Turkoglu
Maxiell vs Bargnani
Wallace [replacing Daye] vs Bosh 

… the Pistons would have been in a much better situation, based on the individual match-ups on the floor, at that time, and would in all likelihood, have been able to fight the Raptors down to the last possession of the game.

3. Instead of making those exact subs at that specific point in the game, John Kuester waited for:

i. Chris Bosh to face-up first Maxiell [Right Block], draw the weak cover down from Bynum [who, at less than 6'0, is useless as a cover down defender], kick-out to Jose Calderon … who buried a huge 3-ball [6:40], to give the Raptors the lead, once again [93-91]; and,

ii. Chris Bosh to re-post vs Maxiell [Right Block], then attack middle with a made jump-hook [5:41, on another weak [late] cover down from Will Bynum;

before he replaced Maxiell with Wallace [vs Bosh], and,

iii. A jump-ball to occur [4:04] before replacing Daye with Villanueva.

——————————

An old coaching bromide that says,

Players win games in basketball; but, sometimes, coaches can lose them.”

Last night’s final outcome for the Pistons was a prime example of the latter situation … even though Detroit was forced to play without 2 veteran starters, i.e. Rip Hamilton [OG] and Tayshaun Prince [SF], in the 2nd bill of a back-to-back.

Full marks to the Raptors [2-2], however, for seizing upon these gaffes by Detroit … i.e. specifically, Will Bynum/PG and John Kuester/Head Coach … to win a crucial game, from their perspective, as they now head out on the road for 7 of their next 8 contests.

 

Must win game for the Raptors

Wednesday, November 4th, 2009

This is what the Dinos have been able to do, thus far, to open the 2009-2010 regular season:

Wed Oct 28 Win vs Cleveland [3-2/.600], 1-0
Fri Oct 30 Loss at Memphis [1-3/.250], 1-1
Sun Nov 01 Loss vs Orlando [3-1/.750], 1-2

Following this evening’s tilt vs Detroit [2-2/.500], however, the next 3 games on their schedule look like this:

Fri Nov 06 at New Orleans [1-3/.250]
Sat Nov 07 at Dallas [3-1/.750], back-to-back
Mon Nov 09 at San Antonio [2-1/.667], 3rd game in 4 nights

According to the Toronto Raptors Season Preview: Game 4 [Sep 24], an astute observer should have been expecting the Pistons to lose this evening’s game, if/when looking at match-up well in advance.

Add-in the fact that two veteran starting players for the Pistons, i.e. Rip Hamilton [OG] and Tayshaun Prince [SF], are now expected to be unavailable tonight, due to their recent injuries, and this SHOULD mean that this game becomes EVEN MORE winnable for the Raptors.

If Toronto is going to try to keep its head above water through the first 20 games of the season … with 3 consecutive road L’s looming on the horizon … winning tonight’s match-up against a depleted Pistons’ squad is absolutely crucial.

One week from today, even if Toronto’s eventual W-L Record stands at a rather inauspicious 2-5, that would still be a might sight better than a thud-like mark of 1-6, which is where they might find themselves [at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, perhaps?] should they fail to win this evening.

With that in mind … it says here that Toronto will play well enough tonight to secure the W and square their W-L Record at 2-2.

———————————

PS. THAT, right there , is what qualifies as a “legitimate W-L prediction,” from yours truly, for this specific game, for the benefit of those of you who are paying close attention to such matters. :-)

PPS. Whether Toronto can actually get the cover [or not] on this game is a different question altogether. As of now, however, this specific game does not rate as a worthwhile KSS GOTD Selection.

Toronto Raptors Season Preview: Game 4

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

Continuing this series … re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 4 – vs Detroit [Wed Nov 04]

 

RAPTORS

ADV

PISTONS

PG

Calderon

=

PG

Stuckey

OG

DeRozan *

à

OG

Hamilton

SF

Turkoglu $^

=

SF

Prince

PF

Bosh

ß

PF

Villanueva $

C

Bargnani

=

C

Brown

 

 

 

PG

Jack #

=

PG

Bynum

OG

Belinelli ^

à

OG

Gordon $

SF

Wright ^

ß

SF

Daye *

PF

Evans ^

=

PF

Maxiell

C

Nesterovic $

=

C

Wilcox $

 

 

 

G/F

Douby

=

G/F

Washington

PF

Johnson ^

=

F

Wallace $

 

 

 

HC

Triano

=

HC

Kuester

 

 

 

+2

OUTCOME

+2

Legend: ADV – Individual match-up advantage; * - 2009 NBA Draftee; ^ - Acquired via trade; # - Restricted free agent; #M – Restricted free agent, matched offer; $ - Unrestricted free agent; $R – Unrestricted free agent, re-signed;  $^ - Acquired via Sign & Trade; Italics – Returning player.

The Pistons are one of several teams that should be in contention for a playoff spot in the EC this season. At this point, these two squads seem comparable to one another, from a player personnel and head coach perspective. In a situation like this, the home team usually has enough of an advantage to secure a victory. On the other hand … if Detroit’s veteran back-court can dominate the Raptors’ set of guards, it could easily allow the Pistons to emerge with a hard-earned road W. 

Raptors expected W-L Record: W, 2-2

Raptors improvement relative to other teams in division & conference

Monday, September 14th, 2009

The 5 teams in the Atlantic Division finished in the following order last season:

1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756, 2nd East, Lost 2nd Round 
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500, 6th East, Lost 1st Round  
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415, 3rd East, Missed Playoffs
4. Toronto Raptors, 33-49/.402, 13th East, Missed Playoffs
5. New York Knicks, 32-50/.390, 14th East, Missed Playoffs

At this point in the off season, the teams have made the following player personnel changes:

BOSTON CELTICS
Significant Losses
1. Leon Powe [PF], UFA
2. Mikki Moore [PF-C], UFA
3. Stephon Marbury [PG]
4. Gabe Pruitt [PG-OG]

Significant Adds
1. Lester Hudson/2nd Round Draft Pick [No. 58, overall]
2. Rasheed Wallace, UFA
3. Sheldon Williams, UFA
4. Marquis Daniels, UFA

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Significant Losses
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. Andre Miller [PG], UFA
3. Theo Ratliff [PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Elton Brand [PF], returns from injury
2. Jason Smith [PF-C], returns from injury
3. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
4. Jrue Holiday [PG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 19, overall]  
5. Rodney Carney [SF], UFA

NEW JERSEY NETS
Significant Losses
1. Vince Carter [SF-OG], trade
2. Ryan Anderson [PF], trade

Significant Adds
1. Terrence Williams [SF-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 11, overall]
2. Courtney Lee [OG], trade
3. Rafer Alston [PG], trade
4. Tony Battie [PF-C], trade

TORONTO RAPTORS
Significant Losses
1. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
2. Shawn Marion [PF-SF], UFA/Sign & trade
3. Kris Humphries [PF], trade
4. Nathan Jawai [PF-C], trade
5. Anthony Parker [OG-SF-PG], UFA
6. Joey Graham [SF], UFA
7. Roko Ukic [PG], trade
8. Carlos Delfino [SF-OG], trade

Significant Adds
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 9, overall]
3. Hedo Turkoglu [SF], Sign & trade
4. Antoine Wright [SF-OG], trade
5. Jarrett Jack [PG-OG], RFA
6. Marco Belinelli [OG-SF-PG], trade
7. Rasho Nesterovic [C-PF], UFA
8. Amir Johnson [PF], trade 

NEW YORK KNICKS
Significant Losses
1. Quentin Richardson [SF-OG], trade
2. Chris Wilcox, PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Danilo Gallinari [SF-PF], returns from injury
2. Jordan Hill [PF-C], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 8, overall]
3. Toney Douglas [PG-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 29, overall]
4. Darko Milicic [PF-C], trade
5. Sun Yue [PG], UFA

While several NBA observers seem to think the Raptors SHOULD be much improved this coming season, based on the wholesale changes made to their roster … this corner does not necessarily share that same opinion, when evaluated against the LOSSESS & ADDS of the other teams in their Division.

Q1. Have the Raptors improved, overall, from last season, relative to their competition?

A1. Maybe; maybe not … is the correct answer, at this point.

The Knicks and Nets are in re-building mode, and the Raptors SHOULD have been expected to finish this coming season in NO WORSE than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Celtics and, possibly, the 76ers … even if they would have done “nothing” substantive to improve their team this summer.

However, given that doing “nothing” was in fact the OPPOSITE of what the Raptors decided to do this off season … i.e. see above … it SHOULD now be EXPECTED that this supposedly improved team SHOULD finish NO WORSE than in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Celtics.

Once this expectation is established, what then becomes interesting is …

if the divisional standings eventually look something like this:

ATLANTIC
1 Boston
2 Toronto or Philadelphia
3 Philadelphia or Toronto
4 New York or New Jersey
5 New Jersey or New York

and the conference standings eventually look something like this:

SOUTHEAST
1 Orlando
2 Atlanta or Miami or Washington
3 Miami Atlanto or Washington
4 Washington or Atlanta or Miami
5 Charlotte

CENTRAL
1 Cleveland
2 Detroit or Chicago or Indiana
3 Chicago or Detroit or Indiana
4 Indiana or Detroit or Chicago
5 Milwaukee

and the playoff race eventually looks something like this:

Eastern Conference
1-2-3 Orlando - High End, Southeast
1-2-3 Cleveland - High End, Central
1-2-3 Boston - High End, Atlantic

4-5-6 Atlanta - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Miami - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Washington - Upper Middle, Southeast

7-8-9-10-11-12 Detroit - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Chicago - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Indiana - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Toronto - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Philadelphia - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Charlotte - Low End, Southwest

12-13-14-15 Milwaukee - Low End, Central
12-13-14-15 New York - Low End, Atlantic
12-13-14-15 New Jersey - Low End, Atlantic

indicating, perhaps, that the relative strength of each division may be shifting this season:

#1. Southeast
#2. Central
#3. Atlantic 

IF a scenario like this is eventually what plays out this season, then, how much will the Raptors really have improved this summer, relative to the other teams in their Division and the Eastern Conference, as a whole?

How a Top Notch GM thinks and speaks about the NBA game

Monday, August 31st, 2009

Thanks to Dave [nbaroundtable] for highlighting this terrific interview with Joe Dumars:

———————————————

KL: Is it probably fair to say that he might not start, but he’ll probably be finishing a lot of games?

JD: Well, I have to be careful not to start coaching here, but he is one of the best closers in the game, so I would just say you’re probably going to want your closers on the floor when that time comes.



KL: But Rip, too, has been a good closer, so I assume that means a lot of a three-guard type of attack, which at the end of games seems to be a little more palatable to players than at the start. I know Rip wasn’t crazy about being a starting small forward because he felt it did wear him out a little bit.

JD: That’s where you give your coach options. You give him different options to go small, as you just stated, or just to close games in the last two minutes, put the ball in Ben’s hands and let Rip play off the ball. Have Tayshaun at the three and put the ball in Tayshaun’s hands and let him initiate the offense for two minutes and have Rip and Ben on the wings. What you want to do is give your coach options and to have people on the floor who can attack the defense and put the defense in a tough spot.

———————————————

If you want to learn more about how someone like Joe D. actually thinks … which is very different than a great many regular “fans” … or, in fact, some NBA observers … Do yourself a favour and read the whole thing, i.e. Parts I [audio, as well] & II.

Raptors Bench Strength: In eye of beholder

Friday, August 28th, 2009

In line with the series of “Raptors vs Eastern Conference Opponent Match-ups” which are being presenting in this space [i.e. I & II], there’s an interesting POV expressed today, by Arsenalist, at Raptors Republic, i.e. Comparing our bench to others, which sees Toronto’s 2nd Tier of players as actually holding sway this season over the likes of Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago, while being even with Orlando.

FWIW …

The view from this corner, on this specific topic, is somewhat different:

————————————————————

RAPTORS BENCH COMPARISON 2009-2010

TOR

Jarrett

Jack

Marco

Belinelli

Antoine

Wright

Reggie

Evans

Rasho

Nesterovic

ADVANTAGE

Arsenalist

khandor

Bos

Eddie House, Tony Allen, Brian Scalabrine, Rasheed Wallace, Baby Davis

Celtics

Celtics

Cle

Daniel Gibson, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, Leon Powe, Ilgauskas

Raptors

Cavs

Orl

J.J Redick, Mickael Pietrus, Matt Barnes, Ryan Anderson, Marcin Gortat

Even

Magic

Det

Will Bynum, Charlie Villanueva, Jason Maxiell, Kwame Brown, Chris Wilcox

Raptors

Pistons

Chi

Lindsey Hunter, Jannero Pargo, John Salmons, Joakim Noah, Jerome James

Raptors

Even

Atl

Jeff Teague, Jamal Crawford, Maurice Evans, Zaza Pachulia, Joe Smith

Hawks

Hawks

 

 

RATIONALE

 

Vs Boston Celtics

 

When House gets used beside HOF players like KG, PP & Ray Ray, neither Jack nor Belinelli is a comparable player, in terms of actual productivity.

 

Davis may comparable to Evans … until you include the fact that Reggie can’t shoot the ball, at all, and is a veritable pylon on D.

 

Wallace is simply a far better Big than either Evans or Nesterovic.

 

Vs Cleveland Cavaliers

 

Parker [6-6] is a semi-legit starting OG-SF in the NBA, compared with Belinelli, who is a legit starting PG-OG.

Moon’s versatility and PER are far better than Wright’s.

 

Ilgauskas is a solid mid & long range jump-shooter who is a tough check for either Nesterovic or Evans that far away from the basket.

 

Vs Orlando Magic

 

Pietrus is a far superior rebounder, defender and scorer than either Belinelli or Wright.

 

Anderson is a solid mid & long range jump-shooter who is a tough check for either Evans or Nesterovic.

 

Gortat is simply a far superior Big to Nesterovic or Evans, at this stage of their respective careers.

 

Vs Detroit Pistons

 

Villanueva is a far superior scorer, as a Big, to either Evans or Nesterovic.

 

Maxiell is a tougher player than Evans and a better interior scorer & rebounder than Nesterovic.

 

Wilcox is just as tough as Evans but a much better scorer.

 

Vs Chicago Bulls

 

Neither Belinelli nor Wright is as good a Wing player as Salmons.

 

Noah is a much better rebounder and shot-blocker than either Evans or Nesterovic.

 

Salmons & Noah together are enough to off-set the advantage which the Raptors have when compared to the trio of Hunter, Pargo & James.

 

Vs Atlanta Hawks

 

Crawford played over Belinelli last season [in G-State] for a reason [i.e. Jamaal can defend Marco; Marco can’t defend Jamaal].

 

Evans may be a comparable to Wright on D but he is a better player on O, as Maurice actually shoots at a solid percentage.

 

Pachulia is an even tougher Big than Evans.

 

Smith is a solid mid-range jump-shooter and a tough check for Nesterovic or Evans that far away from the basket.

————————————————————

Vive La Différence!

YOU MAKE THE CALL: Pistons vs Raptors

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

Some NBA observers in the on-line hoops community consider Detroit and Toronto to be heading in opposite directions this summer, with their additions/subtractions:

I. The Pistons are viewed as a team IN DECLINE; while,

II. The Raptors are viewed as a team ON THE RISE.

When comparing the PTL of their respective rosters, however:

#

Pos

DETROIT

TORONTO

 

STARTERS

 

1

PG

Stuckey, 23

Jose Calderon, 27

2

OG

Hamilton, 31

DeMar DeRozan, 20

3

SF

Prince, 29

Hedo Turkoglu, 30

4

PF

Villanueva, 25

Chris Bosh, 25

5

C

Wilcox, 26

Andrea Bargnani, 23

 

BENCH

 

6

PG

Gordon, 26

Jarrett Jack, 25

7

OG

Washington, 24

Marco Belinelli, 23

8

SF

Daye, 21

Antoine Wright, 25

9

PF

Maxiell, 26

Reggie Evans, 29

10

C

Brown, 27

Rasho Nesterovic, 33

 

EXTRAS

 

11

G

Bynum, 26

Quincy Douby, 25

12

F-C

Wallace, 34

Amir Johnson, 22

 

RESERVES

 

13

PG

TBD

Marcus Banks, 28

14

G-F

Summers, 21

Sonny Weems, 23

15

PF-C

Jerebko, 22

Patrick O’Bryant, 23

 

OTHERS

 

Head Coach

John Kuester

Jay Triano

GM

Joe Dumars

Bryan Colangelo

Rec Last Year

39-43/.476, 8th

33-49/.402, 4th

Playoff Streak

8

0

the follow-up question is:

At which spots in Toronto’s line-up do these people see the Raptors’ personnel with a distinct match-up advantage compared with the Pistons?

STARTERS? BENCH? EXTRAS? RESERVES? OTHERS?

————————————————————

Which team has more match-up advantages?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

————————————————————

According to these eyes …

Toronto Raptors
Have an advantage with Chris Bosh vs Charlie Villanueva.

Detroit Pistons
Have an advantage with Richard Hamilton vs DeMar DeRozan.

Have an advantage with Ben Gordon vs Jarret Jack.

Have a minor advantage with the upside of:

Summers [#35/2008] & Jerebko [#39/2008] 
vs 
Banks [#13/2003], Weems [#39/2008] & O’Bryant [#9/2006].

Have an advantage with Joe Dumars vs Bryan Colangelo.

Have an advantage with a better Win% from last season [.476 vs .402].

Have an advantage having qualified for the playoffs 8 consecutive seasons.

—————————–

FYI … The Raptors average player age is 25.4 years; while, the Pistons average player age is 25.7 years.