khandor’s sports blog

Those expecting the Lakers to take a precipitous tumble in the Western Conference standings this season … in the aftermath of “whiffing” on a trade for Chris Paul [PG] and then sending Lamar Odom [SF/PF] to Dallas … do not have an accurate understanding of just how good Devin Ebanks [SF, 2nd-yr] is most likely going to be for their team this year.

Once Andrew Bynum’s suspension finishes and Kobe’s wrist injury fully heals, the following line-up for the Lakers:

STARTERS
Derek Fisher + Kobe Bryant + Devin Ebanks + Pau Gasol + Andrew Bynum

KEY SUBS
Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, Metta World Peace, Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy

RESERVES
Jason Kapono and Luke Walton

EXTRAS
Darius Morris, Andrew Goudelock and Derrick Caracter [inj.]

is still going to be formidable … as the bolded players above are actually much better than many so-called [but really illegitimate] NBA observers realize.

After the Lakers eventually use their large Traded Player Exception – obtained in exchange for Mr. Odom – it should come as no surprise at all to see this team finish with the best W-L record in the Pacific Division, once again.

Mitch Kupchak [GM] has already proven that he knows how to construct a top flight NBA team … as long as Jim Buss is able to stay out of the way.

Update:

For the benefit of those who might need some further clarification, here’s the follow-up comment which yours truly left a few minutes ago, in a related thread at PBT …

Devin Ebanks [i.e. think of a better, more physical, version of Trevor Ariza] and Darius Morris [i.e. think of a young, poor man's version of Tony Parker] are both very solid young players with the ability to make positive contributions to this year’s Lakers team which desperately needed an infusion of youth on the heels of last season’s disappointing end. Josh McRoberts is the type of banger who Mike Brown has made very effective use of in the past [i.e. think of a more athletic version of Anderson Varejao]. Troy Murphy [PF] playing beside either Andrew Bynum or Gasol is going to be a very potent player [i.e. think of the double-double machine who was a former starter for the Pacers]. Once the Lakers decide to use their TPE … and it doesn’t need to be in regards to acquiring a stud like Dwight Howard [C] … their roster is still going to be formidable for the Western Conference Playoffs, as long as they are healthy. Although they won’t play the type of artistically pleasing basketball they did under the direction of Dr. Phil, they will still be a highly effective team, under the capable direction of a defensive-minded head coach like Mike Brown. Those expecting a rapid Lakers’ demise this season will most likely be quite disappointed by season’s end.

Read the following quote from this article, concerning the supposed “new” status of the LA Clippers …

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Chris Paul’s arrival signals new future for Clips

“The hardest thing we said in this whole process was, ‘We’re good. We have a chance to be good, and do we really break this up for the home run?’ ” Olshey said. “We told Mr. Sterling we had two really good directions: We could continue to build – we’re going to be better this year than we were last year. We have this draft pick. The players are going to keep developing.

“Or we have a chance to completely change the culture of the organization and make us a contender right away.”

The Clippers opted for the latter, surrendering Gordon, the draft pick, Chris Kaman and forward Al-Farouq Aminu for Paul and two future second-round picks. When the deal was done, Roeser and Olshey celebrated with champagne at the practice facility.

“I’ve enjoyed times of hope and times of agony,” Roeser said. “And I’ve never been more excited for a team at the beginning of the season.”

While the Clippers look good on paper, they will begin the season with the unlikely burden of playoff expectations. They also know they have to win to keep Paul, whose contract runs through the 2012-13 season and Griffin, who could become an unrestricted free agent in 2014 if he doesn’t sign a contract extension. Paul and Griffin also have had knee injuries in recent years that will continue to be a concern.

But instead of worrying about any of that, Paul and his Clippers are focused on the present. For a day or two, at least, the Clippers have become the talk of the town.

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and, then, remember them verbatim, 3 years from today.

When you sacrifice the “near future” for what you believe to be the “present” … and, your team’s current roster still has major holes in it, at multiple positions:

PROJECTED STARTERS

PG/Chris Paul + PG/Chauncey Billups + SF/Ryan Gomes + PF/Blake Griffin + C/Deandre Jordan

PROJECTED KEY SUBS

PG/Mo Williams + OG/Randy Foye + SF/Caron Butler + PF/Trey Thompkins + PF-C/Brian Cook

PROJECTED RESERVES

G/Willie Warren + PF/Adam Koch

PROJECTED EXTRAS/OUTS

PG/Eric Bledsoe [inj.] + PG/Blake Ahearn + G/Travis Leslie + F/Renaldo Major

HEAD COACH

Vinnie Del Negro

rather than being an authentic moment of well-deserved celebration, what it actually is, is a truly sad day, in the inglorious history of your pro sports franchise.

A number of NBA observers now hold the belief that the LA Clippers are poised to become one of the elite teams in the NBA, given their recent acquisition of 4-time NBA All-Star PG, Chris Paul.

Yours truly is NOT one of them.

Q1. How come, you ask?

A1. It really is a very simple equation.

The strength of a first-class pro sports franchise is certainly top down.

However …

A team does NOT move into the authentically “elite” category just because:

- It acquires a top notch [although somewhat over-rated] PG … who is definitely in his prime but also has a history of [somewhat debilitating] knee injuries which have put him on the shelf for significant stretches of previous seasons

- It acquires a formerly outstanding PG … who is now in the latter stages of his highly accomplished career but wanted to go to a legitimate NBA title-winning contender, e.g. the Heat or the Lakers

- It has a very good, but still-very young PF … who is not yet in the prime of his career and has also incurred a prior knee injury which has already put him on the shelf for an entire season

During the 2010-2011 season:

LA CLIPPERS

- Finished 4th in the Pacific Division
- Finished 13th in Western Conference
- Had a W-L Record of 32-50
- Failed to qualify for the playoffs

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

- Finished 3rd in the Southwest Division
- Finished 7th in the Western Conference
- Had a W-L Record of 46-36
- Lost their 1st Rd Playoff Series

In reality:

1. One of these two franchises no longer has 2 of the 3 young cornerstone players who were on their roster last year, and filled their team with authentic levels of optimism for the foreseeable future.

2. One of these two franchises now has two 1st Round Draft Picks in the 2012 NBA Draft, each of which has a fair-to-good chance of being in the high-end of the Lottery.

3. One of these two franchises has a bevy of still-youngish players with a substantial amount of upside. The other franchise does not.

4. One of these two franchises has Donald Sterling as its owner. The other franchise does not.

In fact, there is nothing in the history of the Clippers which suggests the franchise is any closer today to eventually becoming a legitimate contender for the NBA Championship, down-the-road, than it would have been without acquiring Chris Paul at all.

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What today’s TrueHoop article REALLY means …

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The moment the talks fell apart

“System changes”

There’s another thing that could be happening, too.

Remember The Decision? That night in July 2010, something happened that angered basketball fans like nothing else. It can be framed as LeBron James being egotistical, or cowardly, or whatever else. But it can also be framed as a young black man just being sick of doing what old white guys tell him to do.

There was a playbook for free agency, a procedure, some decorum. And James tossed it. No, after earning Dan Gilbert the sun, the moon and the stars, he does not also owe him a phone call. No, he doesn’t have to let some other, whiter, older entity control the production of his announcement. No, he doesn’t have to stick to the storyline of local hero, or even player. He really does have the power to play GM, to assemble a super team, and that’s what he would do.

The message to a lot of fans was that James just got it all wrong. But the message to a lot of players was that James did what 1,000 players have been dreaming of doing for years — he acted fully empowered — and it’s hard to say he failed at it. He made his millions, and the Finals. His team is intact. His business life is sound. He’ll be contending for championships for years.

It’s a business revolution with young black men, basketball players, in the corner offices. A new way of doing things, long overdue, and happening now.

And maybe that’s what Stern encountered in that hotel room in New York: a new generation of fully empowered players who no longer believe they have to conform to much of anything.

Just three days earlier, with James in attendance, James’ teammate Dwyane Wade had yelled at David Stern. “You’re not pointing your finger at me,” Wade said, sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Ric Bucher. “I’m not your child.”

On Friday, a role player for a middling team got a surprise phone call, from just about the biggest name in the sport — somebody who had never called him before. The message: Hold firm at 53. We’re not caving. Hang in there. It wasn’t the only call of its kind, and when you talk to players now there is religious fervor, around the number 53, and around not giving owners any freebies on the other issues.

Owners are indignant that they have endured dreadful losses that must be righted. Players, meanwhile, are indignant that compared to the old CBA every concession to date has come from them. The issues are sounding more religious than ever, and it’s doubtful that, at the moment, anyway, either Hunter or Stern is capable of rallying his followers to build a bridge to the other side.

And if it’s driven by players’ blossoming and deep-rooted self-determination, then they can’t be expected to budge. I just hope, for the NBA’s sake, that they chose the correct line to draw in the sand.

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is that there will probably be no 2011-2012 NBA season with each side involved in the current lockout unprepared to meet the other at the halfway point between 47.0% [i.e. the NBA owners' best offer] and 53.0% [i.e. the NBAPA's minimum requirement], in terms of Basketball Related Income [BRI].

Deron Williams and the Jazz know what they’re doing

“With Chris Paul sidelined, is any point guard playing better than Deron Williams?”

There are a few things I try not to do. Among them:

• I try not to wake up my wife and kids when they’re sleeping.
• I try not to call people who have little children late at night.
• Realizing I’m a journalist, not a coach, I try not to make statements that rely strictly on my own cobbled-together basketball judgment.
• I try not to curse.

Last night I came this close to breaking all those rules …

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Given the already stated preference of this corner, when forced to choose between CP3 and D-Will …

It’s the Age of the Point Guard, in today’s NBA [Dec 18 2009]

it is now a simple fact that the age-old …

QUESTION of …

Who is the best Point Guard in the NBA today?

… needs to be asked and, then, answered, in a different way than it’s ever been asked before … 

considering THE WAY a certain member of the Cleveland Cavaliers has been conducting his on-court business since approximately Jan 11 2010.

LeBron James’ Complete Game Log

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THE CORRECT ANSWER is … LeBron James.

[... which is something this corner has been advocating for at least the last 2+ years quite some time ... i.e. Best Point Guards in the NBA: An Update, Jan 30 2008]

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PS. In sharp contrast to other NBA experts/analysts/fans/etc. … there is a good reason why many of the statements and observations which appear on this blog do, in fact, rely mostly on “cobbled-together basketball judgment” rather than elaborate prose and/or the use of unnecessarily complicated new-age statistics. For those of you who took the time to read what Henry Abbott wrote in his introduction, it’s important to always be aware of How the Principle of Opposite functions in The Game of Hoops.

This corner of the blogosphere has been saying for at least the last 2+ years that Deron Williams is, in fact, a better PG than the Annointed One, Chris Paul …  

However, despite the affection which exists here for the members of the TNT Crew, please let it still be known, to one and all, that there is also a VERY BIG difference between making a comparative statement like that, and subsequently christening D-Will as the No. 1 PG, overall, in the entire NBA today … whilest other top dogs, like:

Chauncey Billups
Steve Nash
Tony Parker, and
Jason Kidd

are still running, at near full-throttle, in the pound, and other still-as-yet wet-behind-the-ears young bucks, like:

Rajon Rondo
Devin Harris
Russell Westbrook
Derrick Rose
Rodney Stuckey
Monta Ellis
Tyreke Evans, and
Brandon Jennings

are just beginning to prowl.

Indeed, in the grand history of the game, you might not be able to identify any other era during which quite THIS many [and potentially even more than just the 14 names listed here] very-good-to-perhaps-great Point Guards roamed the floors of the NBA, all at once, on an every day basis.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 5 – @ New Orleans [Fri Nov 06]

Q1. What’s the reason Chris Bosh should be playing Center for the Raptors rather than Power Foward?

A1. Difficult individual match-ups like this vs David West [PF].

Instead of being able to use his significant quickness advantage against an upright player like Emeka Okafor [C], Bosh is forced to bang with one of the best scoring under-sized PF’s in the league. CP3′s combination of quickness and strength makes him a difficult check for Jose Calderon. Very seldom will a rookie [i.e. DeRozan] outperform an established player like Peja Stojakovic, especially, in a road game. Byron Scott is a first rate head coach.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 2-3

Here’s the link,

The 10 best point guards of the last decade,

Here’s the relevant quote, which attempts to categorize the extraordinary work of Chris Paul, during the first phase of his prolific pro career:

“Rings aside, Chris Paul has had the best first 300 games of any point guard in NBA history. Maybe the best 300 games in NBA point man history. He’s that good, that soon.” – KD

Here’s the comment I left, in reply:

“With all due respect, Chris Paul’s group of 1-300 games has not been better than Oscar Robertson’s.

Different, yes; but, not better.” - khandor

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FYI …

From Basketballreference.com:

Chris Paul and Oscar Robertson

Chris Paul vs Oscar Robertson

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The view from this corner?

The one and the only, Big O, still reigns supreme … in terms of sheer dominance, from this position, on a NBA court.

Chris Paul [6-0, 175] is considered to be one of the Elite Level players in the NBA today who, seemingly, has been able to take the New Orleans Hornets into the upper echelon of the league single-handedly.

Rules changes in the NBA implemented over the last decade have been viewed, by-and-large, to have ushered in a new era of “offensive-focused” basketball predicated on the ability & initiative of a “smallish, dynamic Point Guard” like CP3. 

The NBA is a copycat league.

When you look at some of the mock drafts on-line today … what you see are an insane number of players slated to be selected in this year’s draft who project at either the PG or Combo Guard [i.e. #1-2] position in the NBA.

Hoops Addict [12 in the 1st Round]

nbadraft.net [19 in total]

DraftExpress [22 in total]

Q1. Is this really the best way possible to elevate a team’s fortunes in the NBA, short and long term?

A1. Not in the least … if your Prime Directive is to actually win the NBA championship some day down-the-road.

If you take a look at the list of teams that have won the NBA Championship, what you should be able to see is that not very many … if any, at all … have been led by a Point Guard who was actually drafted [in a given year] after as many as 5 other Point Guards have been selected AHEAD of him.

When all is said and done, a few years hence, several of the teams that end up choosing one of these projected PG’s in this year’s draft are going to regret THIS decision, as a massive waste of valuable resources. 

At this level competition, if the goal is to win a championship someday, it makes little sense to add a key player in this way who is simply not going to be one of the very best players in the league at the position he will need to play in this league on a regular basis.

Watching Luis Scola dismantle the Los Angeles Lakers in the 1st quarter of last night’s Game 6, the following thought came to mind …

Q. Do most so-called NBA experts/observers really truly understand just how good, and skilled, and smart, and tenacious, etc., the 2004 Olympic Games [Athens] Men’s Basketball Champions actually were?

A. Not a chance.

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However, if you want to pass yourself off as someone who has a thorough knowledge of the game of basketball, you really SHOULD.

STARTERS
PG/Pepe Sanchez
OG/Manu Ginobili
SF/Andres Nocioni
PF/Luis Scola
C/Fabricio Oberto

KEY SUBS
Alejandro Montecchia [G]
Carlos Delfino [G/F]
Walter Herrmann [F]
Ruben Wolkowisky [F/C]

This is a team which had at least 9 players who were more than capable of holding their own against the very best in the world, and was full value for winning their [i] quarter-final vs Greece [host], [ii] semi-final vs the USA and [iii] final vs Italy, after starting the tournament with an 0-2 record.

If that exact team would have been able to stay together for the 2008 Olympic Games [Beijing] Men’s Basketball Tournament, this past summer, and been 100% healthy, there is simply no telling whether the following group of players, coaches and administrators:

Jason Kidd
Dwyane Wade
Kobe Bryant
Lebron James
Chris Bosh

Chris Paul
Deron Williams
Michael Redd
Carmelo Anthony
Tayshaun Prince
Carlos Boozer
Dwight Howard

Mike Krzyzewski
Mike D’Antoni
Nate McMillan

Jerry Colangelo

would still enjoy the stellar reputations they have today and have been strong & cohesive enough to reclaim the Gold Medal for the Red, White & Blue.

Oh, but, what a game THAT would have been to witness.