khandor’s sports blog

According to TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott …

John Hollinger’s 2010-2011 NBA Playoff Odds

means that the season is already over for some teams in the NBA.

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As of yesterday:

This is what the NBA Standings looked like.

However …

According to yours truly:

[as of Friday, December 31, 2010]

This is what the list of Contenders To Win the 2010-2011 NBA Championship: Part 1 actually looked like:

   
which means that 22 of the 30 teams had already been eliminated from legitimate contention for the League Championship this season by New Year’s Eve …

and, given that it now looks as though the Dallas Mavericks will be without the services of Caron Butler [Starting SF] for the remainder of the season … 

The No. 1 ‘non Top 4′ team in the current standings which you should keep your eyes fixated on, as the rest of the season unfolds, is the Denver Nuggets [i.e. tied for 5th place - with the LA Lakers - with an 8.5% chance of reaching the NBA Finals, according to Mr. Hollinger, despite having only the 12th best W-L Record in the league].

Considering the injuries and absences sustained, thus far, by different members of Denver’s regular rotation, a line-up which looks like this [see below]:

should be able to reach the Western Conference semi-finals again this season and, quite possibly, shape up as a legitimate threat to make it to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history … if the Nuggets [A] can remain healthy for the balance of the regular season - including their head coach, George Karl – and [B] Masai Ujiri [GM] has the resolve required to not trade Carmelo Anthony [Starting SF/PF] prior to the Trade Deadline.

The NBA is a league with 63 years of history, and any franchise which truly aspires to win the championship, one day in the future, but refuses to acknowledge the primacy of the 3 main aspects of basketball success …

#1 Team Defense,

#2 Rebounding,

and,

#3 Team [not individual] Offense

… is simply kidding itself, as well as its loyal fanbase.

As Pat Riley so aptly said, years ago, while winning back-to-back titles with the original ShowTime LA Lakers:

“No Rebounds; No Rings.”

and,

as KG & Co. have so eloquently and rhythmically espoused, en masse, for the last few years …

What it takes to win the NBA Championship really does involve making a total Team Commitment to playing the game the RIGHT WAY.

Congratulations to the LA Lakers organization for learning its lessons well, and being able to ‘walk the walk.’

Toronto Raptors 112
DENVER NUGGETS 130
Tue Nov 17 2009 – Game Scoreboard

With both Hedo Turkoglu [SF, 6-10, 220] and Reggie Evans [PF, 6-8, 245] out of the line-up, the Raptors were “physically” over-matched vs the Nuggets in last night’s game.

ASSESSING INDIVIDUAL MATCH-UPS BASED ON SIZE, STRENGTH, AGILITY AND EXPLOSIVE QUICKNESS

Defensively, from Denver’s perspective

Nene * [6-11, 250, i.e. size and agility] is a terrific check vs Chris Bosh [6-10, 230], anytime that CB4 does not step-off from the block. 

Kenyon Martin * [6-9, 240, i.e. size, strength, agility and explosive quickness] is a terrific check vs Andrea Bargnani [7-0, 250]. Period.

The combination of Nene and K-Mart is a terrific pairing vs CB4 and Bargnani … since: [i] Andrea is a perimeter Center who cannot take Kenyon into the low-post to do damage, and [ii] whenever CB4 steps out to the perimeter it then leaves Toronto with ZERO low-post game.

Chris Andersen * [6-10, 228, i.e. agility and explosive quickness] is a terrific check vs either [a] Amir Johnson * [6-9, 210] or [b] Rasho Nesterovic [7-0, 255.

Arron Afflalo * [6-5, 215, i.e. strength and agility] is a solid check vs DeMar DeRozan * [6-7, 220].

Defensively, from Toronto’s Perspective

Carmelo Anthony * [6-8, 230, i.e. size, strength and agility] is a nightmare for the Raptors. Period.

Chauncey Billups * [6-3, 202, i.e. strength] is a difficult check for the Raptors. Period.

JR [Earl] Smith * [6-6, 220] i.e. expolosive quickness] is a difficult check for the Raptors, when they try to go with Marco Belinelli [6-5, 200, i.e. less strength and less quickness; more offensive skill] instead of Sonny Weems * [6-6, 203, i.e. as much strength and quickness; less offensive skill].

Ty Lawson * [5-11, 195, i.e. quickness] is a difficult check for the Raptors. Period.

Physically, Denver is a superior team to Toronto and simply worn down the Raptors’ best players in the 2nd [36-35/+1], 3rd [33-25/+8] and 4th [33-23/+10] quarters.

There’s no magic answer when these two teams play.

Last night:

Denver generated 105 offensive possessions [with just 3 O-Rebs].
Toronto generated 117 offensive possessions [with 19 O-Rebs].

Denver shot 61.5 [FG%].
Toronto shot 46.2 [FG%].

Denver generated 68 points in the paint.
Toronto generated 34 points in the paint.

Denver scored points at a rate of 1.238 per possession.
Toronto scored points at a rate of 0.957 per possession.

When a team like Toronto [which scores alot of points per game and yields alot of points per game, in return] plays a team like Denver [which scores alot of points per game and yields alot of points per game, in return ... but, also has physically gifted players [*] at several positions] then Toronto is going to end up on the short end of the scoreboard a majority of the time.

When Toronto has faced a Quality Opponent [.500+] this season which has not:

i. Been in the 2nd half of a back-2-back; or,
ii. Made the mistake of playing their 2 hulking centers together vs the combo of Bosh and Bargnani;

the Dinos have performed in the following way:

In general, teams that surrender more than 1.0 points per possession, vs a specific set of opponents, while scoring fewer than 1.0 points per possession themselves, have too many players who are “physically” inferior to their individual counterparts when matched-up with those teams.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 11 – at Denver [Tue Nov 17]

At Denver last season [Dec 03 2008] is where things turned ugly for the Raptors, when Sam Mitchell was fired following a lopsided loss. This season’s Nuggets should prove to be too much for the Dinos, as well, with several individual match-up advantages. Although not as deep as last season’s team, Denver should still be one of the better squads in the WC this year, if their key players can remain healthy.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 4-7