khandor’s sports blog

A number of NBA observers now hold the belief that the LA Clippers are poised to become one of the elite teams in the NBA, given their recent acquisition of 4-time NBA All-Star PG, Chris Paul.

Yours truly is NOT one of them.

Q1. How come, you ask?

A1. It really is a very simple equation.

The strength of a first-class pro sports franchise is certainly top down.

However …

A team does NOT move into the authentically “elite” category just because:

- It acquires a top notch [although somewhat over-rated] PG … who is definitely in his prime but also has a history of [somewhat debilitating] knee injuries which have put him on the shelf for significant stretches of previous seasons

- It acquires a formerly outstanding PG … who is now in the latter stages of his highly accomplished career but wanted to go to a legitimate NBA title-winning contender, e.g. the Heat or the Lakers

- It has a very good, but still-very young PF … who is not yet in the prime of his career and has also incurred a prior knee injury which has already put him on the shelf for an entire season

During the 2010-2011 season:

LA CLIPPERS

- Finished 4th in the Pacific Division
- Finished 13th in Western Conference
- Had a W-L Record of 32-50
- Failed to qualify for the playoffs

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

- Finished 3rd in the Southwest Division
- Finished 7th in the Western Conference
- Had a W-L Record of 46-36
- Lost their 1st Rd Playoff Series

In reality:

1. One of these two franchises no longer has 2 of the 3 young cornerstone players who were on their roster last year, and filled their team with authentic levels of optimism for the foreseeable future.

2. One of these two franchises now has two 1st Round Draft Picks in the 2012 NBA Draft, each of which has a fair-to-good chance of being in the high-end of the Lottery.

3. One of these two franchises has a bevy of still-youngish players with a substantial amount of upside. The other franchise does not.

4. One of these two franchises has Donald Sterling as its owner. The other franchise does not.

In fact, there is nothing in the history of the Clippers which suggests the franchise is any closer today to eventually becoming a legitimate contender for the NBA Championship, down-the-road, than it would have been without acquiring Chris Paul at all.

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According to Justin Kubatko, the creator of basketball-reference.com and the author of the following article for the New York Times …

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Keeping Score: Why the Nuggets are winning

With Wednesday night’s impressive road victory over the Atlanta Hawks, the Denver Nuggets improved to 9-2 since the trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks.

And although most analysts felt the Nuggets received a favorable return in the deal, few expected them to play this well without their star.

A closer look at the team’s numbers with Anthony and without him reveals some significant changes on both ends of the floor.

Perhaps the two biggest criticisms of Anthony while he was in Denver were his propensity to dominate the ball on the offensive end and his effort (or lack thereof) on the defensive end.

Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of plays that a player used while he was on the floor, where a play is defined to be a combination of field goal attempts, free throw attempts and turnovers. If a team distributed its plays equally among all of its players, then each individual would have a usage percentage of 20 percent.

Anthony’s usage percentage in Denver was 32.6 percent, the second-highest rate in the N.B.A. That, coupled with the fact that Anthony averaged 35.5 minutes a game, meant that the Nuggets’ offense was predominantly run through a single player.

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There still seems to be some degree of ”uncertainty” concerning the “unexpectedly” terrific play of the Denver Nuggets, in the aftermath of their recently completed trade with the New York Knicks.

Question

Given the actual quality of the personnel for the present version of the Nuggets, should this really be the case, at all? 

Answer

FWIW …

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[comment from April 8, 2011, 2:17 AM]

Prior to the Melo/Billups trade, Denver was a very talented team that was under-performing in the regular season – compared to the team from 2 years ago – due to a number of different factors, including:

i. Injuries to Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin;

ii. Turmoil surrounding the impending trade of C-Anthony;

iii. George Karl’s on-going recovery from last season’s bout with cancer; and,

iv. The loss of important role/back-up/bit players like Linas Kleiza and Johan Petro.

If this year’s team had been 100% healthy from the start of the season [including George Karl], however … and not immersed in the Melo/Billups trade controversy … then, the Nuggets would have most likely been one of the top 3 teams in the West all year long, based strictly on the strength of their personnel.

THEN …

When Masai Ujiri [GM] was able to extract a “motherload of still-young legitimate NBA level talent” from the Knicks, in exchange for what Denver only had to give up:

TO NEW YORK
C-Anthony + C-Billups + A-Carter + R-Balkman

[Please Note: Shelden Williams was also included in this trade.]

TO DENVER
D-Gallinari + W-Chandler + R-Felton + T-Mozgov + 2 Future 1st Round Draft Picks

[Please Note: The Nuggets only received 1 Future 1st Round Draft Pick from New York.]

it should actually NOT come as a surprise, at all, that THIS new version of the Nuggets is a pretty darn good outfit … when you put the newcomers together with the return to good health of Kenyon Martin [close to 90%] and Chris Andersen [close to 80%].

In early February [Please Note: It was actually back in January], well before the trade deadline, I forecast on my blog that the Denver Nuggets would likely be THE MOST IMPROVED TEAM in the NBA after the All-Star Break, if they CHOSE NOT to trade C-Anthony this year.

‘Non Top 4′ team most likely to reach the NBA Finals this season

Given what Denver got back from New York in the Melo/Billups trade, my forecast remains the same today.

Those who think the Nuggets are a prime example of the sum of the parts being greater than the value of the whole are simply ignorant of just how good the following individual players and coaches actually are:

STARTERS
1/Lawson/PG + 2/Afflalo/OG-SF [or Chandler] + 3/Gallinari/SF + 4/Martin/PF + 5/Nene/C

KEY SUBS
6/Felton/PG, 8/Chandler/OG-SF [or Afflalo], 7/Smith/SF-OG, 9/Andersen/PF-C and 10/Harrington/PF-C

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RESERVES
11/Forbes/SF [i.e. as good an 11th man as there is in the NBA] and 12/Mozgov/C [i.e. as good a 12th man as there is in the NBA]

—————————-

EXTRAS/OUTS
Ely/PF-C [i.e. as good a 13th man as there is in the NBA] and Koufos/C [i.e. as good a 14th man as there is in the NBA]

—————————-

HEAD COACH
Karl [i.e. as good a Head Coach as there is in the NBA, today, other than Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich]

because of an over-reliance on simplistic “statistical-based pseudo basketball analysis”.

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Enjoy!

PS. Afterall, it’s Masters Week, again! … and, the unoffical start of Spring!

Related:

Knicks, Nuggets and Timberwolves complete ‘blockbuster’ trade

Nuggets, Melo, Billups & Co. should be making legit bid to win Denver’s first NBA title

Prior to completing their recent trade for Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Renaldo Balkman and Anthony Carter, the New York Knicks were 28-26/.519 and in 6th place in the Eastern Conference Standings.

Q1. How have the Knicks performed since making that trade?

A1.

In a way that has actually been fairly consistent with what was first said here … back on Tuesday, February 22, 2010 … would most likely be the case.

As Donnie Walsh/GM and Mike D’Antoni/HC continue to fill-in places on New York’s roster, it will be most interesting to see if this changes significantly, during the remainder of the regular season schedule and into the playoffs.

In the summer of 2009 yours truly made the observation that the 2008-2009 version of the Detroit Pistons had an on-going “internal” problem with their former head coach, Michael Curry, and the team’s core group of players who had been with Detroit during the successful run of the previous decade.

Essentially, this is what was said:

1. The Pistons had been unsuccessful, in large part … not because they had only “average-to-below-average” players on their roster, but … because the “average-to-above-average” players on their team had not been used appropriately by their head coach and such problems with their regular “rotation” would continue to be the primary cause of their failure, if the right head coach was not brought in by Joe Dumars/GM to address the situation moving forward.

2. Clear “Role Delineation” is a key component of a successful basketball coach’s job.

3. Fostering “Team Cohesion” is a key component of “Role Delineation” for a successful basketball coach.

4. An elite level basketball team that has several players who work best at the same position with a similar set of strengths and weaknesses needs to have their “individual roles” identified clearly by the head coach, in a way which establishes a clear hierarchy and allows their “best” players to receive the most playing time, on a consistent basis.

5. One way … of many different alternatives … to accomplish this type of “regular rotation” for the 2009-2010 Detroit Pistons, given their collection of Point Guards, Off Guards, Combo Guards, Guard-Forwards, Small Forwards and Combo Forwards would be to implement:

i. An exclusive 3-player rotation at the Point Guard and Off Guard positions;

in concert with,

ii. An exclusive 2-player rotation at the Small Forward position;

that looked something like the following:

STARTERS
PG, Rodney Stuckey
OG, Rip Hamilton
SF, Tayshaun Prince

KEY SUBS
PG-OG, Ben Gordon
SF, Jonas Jerebko [or Austin Daye]  

and, thereby, excluded Will Bynum [PG] – a talented player, in his own right – from the mix on a consistent basis.

This type of regular rotation would have promoted very clear “Role Delineation” amongst the Pistons’ guards and forwards and enhanced “Team Cohesion”. 

Unfortunately, instead of doing this …

Last Season 

John Kuester [i.e. new head coach] juggled his players incessantly in the different Point Guard, Off Guard and Small Forward roles;

and,

This Season

The problem has only become worse with the inclusion of Tracy McGrady [PG-OG-SF].

Exhibit A - Prince and Kuester have words. Again.

Exhibit B – Pistons aren’t playing hard

Exhibit C - Hamilton at center of Pistons turmoil

Exhibit D

Pistons’ turmoil boils over, coach ejected in loss 

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Despite what you might have read - either, recently or over the last 2 seasons - from other “so-called” basketball analysts who rely primarily on stat-based metrics like “Wins Produced”, etc., to evaluate the abilities and relative worth of NBA players …

The main problem for the Pistons, since Larry Brown’s departure, as their head coach, has not been rooted in the ”below average” abilities of their players but the “poor fit” between their “best” players and the men Joe Dumars/GM has hired as their next 3 head coaches, i.e. Flip Saunders, Michael Curry and John Kuester. 

While these Detroit teams have been short of the sort of overall “talent level” required to compete successfully for a place in the NBA Finals, this is not the main reason they have plummeted down the Eastern Conference standings, since the trade of Chauncey Billups [PG] for Allen Iverson [PG-OG].

In relative terms …

Authentic elite level basketball coaches are a rare commodity.

When a given NBA team fails to hire one of these select individuals to lead their on-court operation, it should really come as no surprise, at all, if the players on their roster are not able to reach their maximum capacity, either, individually or as a collective unit.

Hopefully, Joe D. will be able to solve THIS on-going problem for the Pistons.

If the New York Knicks were indeed forced to include each of the following assets in their just-completed trade for Carmelo Anthony:

1. Raymond Felton/PG;
2. Danilo Gallinari/SF-PF;
3. Wilson Chandler/OG-SF;
4. Timofey Mozgov/C;
5. Anthony Randolph/SF-PF [sent to Minnesota];
6. Eddy Curry/C [sent to Minnesota];
7. 1 Future 1st Round Draft Pick [2014]; and,
8. 2 Future 2nd Round Draft Picks [obtained from Golden State in exchange for David Lee last summer]; 

then, it was certainly a hefty price to pay for the “opportunity” to field the following line-up the remainder of this season:

STARTERS
1 Chauncey Billups, PG
2 Landry Fields, OG
3 Carmelo Anthony, SF
4 Ronny Turiaf, PF
5 Amare Stoudemire, C

BACK-UPS
6 Tony Douglas, PG
7 Andy Rautins, PG-OG
8 Roger Mason, PG-OG
9 Kelenna Azubuike, OG-SF
10 Bill Walker, OG-SF
11 Shawne Williams, SF-PF
12 Renaldo Blackman, PF
13 Shelden Williams, PF

and “the possibility” of adding a player like Chris Paul, as well, somewhere down-the-road.

If Denver and Minnesota do actually decide to keep each of the players obtained by their respective teams in this reported transaction:

then, it may well be the case that:

1. New York has obtained the best player involved in these trades, but may still have failed to appreciably advance their franchise, in pursuit of winning a League Championship;

2. Denver may have obtained as close to “fair value”, as possible, in exchange for their disgruntled former “star” player who did not wish to sign a contract extension with their team;

and,

3. Minnesota may have made out like bandits, by acquiring 2 solid assets for their franchise, in exchange for only 1 ”spare part” on their current roster.

Time will tell if this transaction actually marks the end of Donnie Walsh’s tenure with the Knicks or, if it ushers in an era of renewed long term prosperity for the once-proud franchise, under the continued direction of its aging native son. 

Based upon the actual ‘talent level’ of the players on their present rosters …

The Top 4 teams in the Western Conference this season might actually be:

1. Los Angeles Lakers [29-11/.725, currently in 2nd place]

2. San Antonio Spurs [33-6/.846, currently in 1st place]

3. Denver Nuggets [22-16/.579, currently in 6th place]

4. Oklahoma City Thunder [27-13/.675, currently in 4th place]

5. Dallas Mavericks [currently in 3rd place]
6. Houston Rockets [currently in 10th place]
7. Utah Jazz [currently in 5th place]
8. Memphis Grizzlies [currently in 9th place]
9. Portland Trail Blazers [currently in 8th place]
10. Phoenix Suns [currently in 11th place]
11. Golden State Warriors [currently in 12th place]
12. Sacramento Kings [currently in 15th place]
13. New Orleans Hornets [currently in 6th place]
14. LA Clippers [currently in 13th place]
15. Minnesota Timberwolves [currently in 15th place]

and, in the opinion of yours truly …

Stan and Josh Kroenke should be considered guilty of ‘operating in bad faith’ this season, if/when they do not try their very best to win the 1st NBA Championship in Nuggets’ history, on the heels of dismissing Mark Warkentien last summer and Brett Bearup earlier this fall.

According to TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott …

John Hollinger’s 2010-2011 NBA Playoff Odds

means that the season is already over for some teams in the NBA.

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As of yesterday:

This is what the NBA Standings looked like.

However …

According to yours truly:

[as of Friday, December 31, 2010]

This is what the list of Contenders To Win the 2010-2011 NBA Championship: Part 1 actually looked like:

   
which means that 22 of the 30 teams had already been eliminated from legitimate contention for the League Championship this season by New Year’s Eve …

and, given that it now looks as though the Dallas Mavericks will be without the services of Caron Butler [Starting SF] for the remainder of the season … 

The No. 1 ‘non Top 4′ team in the current standings which you should keep your eyes fixated on, as the rest of the season unfolds, is the Denver Nuggets [i.e. tied for 5th place - with the LA Lakers - with an 8.5% chance of reaching the NBA Finals, according to Mr. Hollinger, despite having only the 12th best W-L Record in the league].

Considering the injuries and absences sustained, thus far, by different members of Denver’s regular rotation, a line-up which looks like this [see below]:

should be able to reach the Western Conference semi-finals again this season and, quite possibly, shape up as a legitimate threat to make it to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history … if the Nuggets [A] can remain healthy for the balance of the regular season - including their head coach, George Karl – and [B] Masai Ujiri [GM] has the resolve required to not trade Carmelo Anthony [Starting SF/PF] prior to the Trade Deadline.

If you’ve taken the time to read a good portion of what’s been published on this blog to-date, then, you are already familiar with a few simple “facts” about the game of basketball:

[for example]

- it is comprised of 3 distinct main phases, i.e. Defense, Rebounding and Offense

- the 1 of these 3 phases which is the least well-understood, by “fans” and other so-called “expert observers” is Rebounding … followed by Defense … primarily, due to its “central” role and the way it influences the character of an elite level team

- basketball is, fundamentally, a “team” game … in which major success and failure [i.e. winning and losing the championship] are determined, in large part, by the highly specific strengths and weaknesses of the “individual” players and their ability to work “in concert” against a particular opponent

- while statistics, in general, are a terrific tool to help one understand how the game actually works, in isolation, they are not a wholly accurate reflection of reality and, at all times, need to be evaluated critically in the appropriate context

- an examination of highly specific anecdotal evidence is a gateway to developing an accurate understanding of the way in which a championship-winning team operates that is separate and distinct from its competition 

- putting an elite level team together properly is akin to “composing a virtuoso work of art” … moreso, than simplistically “painting by the numbers”

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To wit:

[this is the specific comment which was just submitted by yours truly at the Wages of Wins Journal]

Another Look at Team USA in 2010

Hmmm …

If someone could take the time to explain the reason the previous comment which I left in this thread was removed, it would be appreciated.

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In the interim, let’s try again.

It is a mistake in basketball judgment to think that keeping the 12 players with the highest WP48 numbers is necessarily the best way to construct a championship-winning basketball “team”.

Just because Gerald Wallace’s WP48 number … which [in fact] “fails to reflect a picture of reality” [according to a respected commentor [sic] on this site like Tom Mandel] … is substantially higher than Rudy Gay’s does not mean that simply “replacing Gay with Wallace” is the better way to go, in this case, i.e. with this specific group of players, their expected opposition, and the relatively large group of [at least, somewhat redundant] PG’s still on the active roster [i.e. Curry, Billups, Rondo, Rose and Westbrook], when compared with the sheer number of wing players [i.e. combo OG/SF/PF] with good size, strength, relative quickness – at their respective positions – and the ability to: i. defend, ii. rebound, iii. shoot the ball efficiently from distance, and iv. be high volume scorers, e.g. like Iguodala, Gay and Durant].

When you dissect how a championship-winning team is actually put together, what you will find is that rarely – if ever – is it simply a conglomeration of the 12 players with the highest available WP48 numbers [e.g. Was Charles Barkley a member of the 1984 team? or, Was Isiah Thomas a member of the original Dream Team?] And, the exact reasons for this are rarely – if ever – rooted in the way these specific players performed in lead-up public scrimmage situations.

Unfortunately, numeric-based analysis of basketball which reads like this is what can create a poor image overall for “stats” gurus, in the eyes of elite level coaches the world over.

[Hopefully this comment meets with your approval.]

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Enjoy!

If you take a look at these 2 sets of video highlights from Friday night’s Toronto loss against Denver, what you should be able to see is that:

1. The Raptors used a specific 5-Man Unit for the defensive possession when Chauncey Billups made his step-back 3PT shot, in the Left Corner, to tie the score, 95-95, with 33.9 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter:

Jack [6-3, 200] vs Billups [6-3, 202], PG
DeRozan [6-7, 220] vs Carter [6-2, 195], PG
Weems [6-6, 205] vs Smith [6-6, 220], OG
Wright [6-7, 215] vs Anthony [6-8, 230], PF
Bosh [6-10, 245] vs Nene [6-11, 250], C

and,

2. The Raptors used the same 5-Man Unit when Carmelo Anthony missed his initial attempt at a game-winning jump shot … which came after Denver’s final time-out, trailing by 1 point … and was followed by the Nuggets’ offensive rebound, pass back to Anthony and his 2PT dagger that ultimately killed the home team:

Jack vs Carter [inbounds passer; 2nd screener for Smith]
DeRozan vs Smith [shooter cutting below the strong side staggered screens]
Weems vs Billups [receiver/passer positioned at the top of the key]
Wright vs Anthony [shooter isolated at the right elbow]
Bosh vs Nene [1st screener for Smith].

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QUESTION

What specific line-up SHOULD the Raptors have used instead of this one?

ANSWER

Weems [6-6, 205] vs Billups [6-3, 202]
DeRozan [6-7, 220] vs Carter [6-2, 195]
Wright [6-7, 215] vs Smith [6-6, 220]
Johnson [6-9, 210] vs Anthony [6-8, 230]
Bosh [6-10, 245] vs Nene [6-11, 250]

If the Raptors had played these last 2 defensive possessions with this different 5-Man Unit, in all likelihood:

Possession #1

Billups would not have been able to get his step-back 3PT jump shot off vs an equally quick but taller defender like Sonny Weems [shot No. 1]; 

and,

Possession #2

Carmelo Anthony would not have been able to get his stand-still 2PT jump shot off vs an equally quick but taller defender like Amir Johnson [i.e. shot No. 2]; and, if he was, then, Toronto would have been in much better position to retrieve the defensive rebound and prevent Anthony from getting off his 1 dribble going left 2PT jump shot … against a smaller defender like Jarrett Jack, or Antoine Wright [shot No. 3].

It really is astounding just how many times different NBA teams actually have the wrong individual match-ups on the floor during specific crunch-time possessions, and how often it can end up costing them a victory, in the process.

and, just stop and think …

How great is it for YOU to be alive today?

Read the following article …

George vs The Dragon

Coaching the wildly talented but wildly uneven Nuggets is hard enough, let alone doing it with throat and neck cancer, but that’s what Karl is trying to do. Everybody tells him it’s not possible, and today, maybe he’s starting to believe them.

With only three of his torturous six weeks of treatment done, and the inside of his mouth looking like he just took 100 bites out of a lava-hot pizza slice, and his head throbbing and his eyes hollow, Karl looks like a guy who should be on a stretcher, not an NBA bench.

“George, this is only going to get harder,” a nurse tells him. “You’re not going to feel like working.” Clearly, she’s never met George Karl.

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then, go and give everyone in your life who you love … a heart-felt bear-hug.

There is simply no better day than THIS in the history of the world.