khandor’s sports blog

If you’ve taken the time to read a good portion of what’s been published on this blog to-date, then, you are already familiar with a few simple “facts” about the game of basketball:

[for example]

- it is comprised of 3 distinct main phases, i.e. Defense, Rebounding and Offense

- the 1 of these 3 phases which is the least well-understood, by “fans” and other so-called “expert observers” is Rebounding … followed by Defense … primarily, due to its “central” role and the way it influences the character of an elite level team

- basketball is, fundamentally, a “team” game … in which major success and failure [i.e. winning and losing the championship] are determined, in large part, by the highly specific strengths and weaknesses of the “individual” players and their ability to work “in concert” against a particular opponent

- while statistics, in general, are a terrific tool to help one understand how the game actually works, in isolation, they are not a wholly accurate reflection of reality and, at all times, need to be evaluated critically in the appropriate context

- an examination of highly specific anecdotal evidence is a gateway to developing an accurate understanding of the way in which a championship-winning team operates that is separate and distinct from its competition 

- putting an elite level team together properly is akin to “composing a virtuoso work of art” … moreso, than simplistically “painting by the numbers”

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To wit:

[this is the specific comment which was just submitted by yours truly at the Wages of Wins Journal]

Another Look at Team USA in 2010

Hmmm …

If someone could take the time to explain the reason the previous comment which I left in this thread was removed, it would be appreciated.

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In the interim, let’s try again.

It is a mistake in basketball judgment to think that keeping the 12 players with the highest WP48 numbers is necessarily the best way to construct a championship-winning basketball “team”.

Just because Gerald Wallace’s WP48 number … which [in fact] “fails to reflect a picture of reality” [according to a respected commentor [sic] on this site like Tom Mandel] … is substantially higher than Rudy Gay’s does not mean that simply “replacing Gay with Wallace” is the better way to go, in this case, i.e. with this specific group of players, their expected opposition, and the relatively large group of [at least, somewhat redundant] PG’s still on the active roster [i.e. Curry, Billups, Rondo, Rose and Westbrook], when compared with the sheer number of wing players [i.e. combo OG/SF/PF] with good size, strength, relative quickness - at their respective positions - and the ability to: i. defend, ii. rebound, iii. shoot the ball efficiently from distance, and iv. be high volume scorers, e.g. like Iguodala, Gay and Durant].

When you dissect how a championship-winning team is actually put together, what you will find is that rarely - if ever - is it simply a conglomeration of the 12 players with the highest available WP48 numbers [e.g. Was Charles Barkley a member of the 1984 team? or, Was Isiah Thomas a member of the original Dream Team?] And, the exact reasons for this are rarely - if ever - rooted in the way these specific players performed in lead-up public scrimmage situations.

Unfortunately, numeric-based analysis of basketball which reads like this is what can create a poor image overall for “stats” gurus, in the eyes of elite level coaches the world over.

[Hopefully this comment meets with your approval.]

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Enjoy!

If you take a look at these 2 sets of video highlights from Friday night’s Toronto loss against Denver, what you should be able to see is that:

1. The Raptors used a specific 5-Man Unit for the defensive possession when Chauncey Billups made his step-back 3PT shot, in the Left Corner, to tie the score, 95-95, with 33.9 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter:

Jack [6-3, 200] vs Billups [6-3, 202], PG
DeRozan [6-7, 220] vs Carter [6-2, 195], PG
Weems [6-6, 205] vs Smith [6-6, 220], OG
Wright [6-7, 215] vs Anthony [6-8, 230], PF
Bosh [6-10, 245] vs Nene [6-11, 250], C

and,

2. The Raptors used the same 5-Man Unit when Carmelo Anthony missed his initial attempt at a game-winning jump shot … which came after Denver’s final time-out, trailing by 1 point … and was followed by the Nuggets’ offensive rebound, pass back to Anthony and his 2PT dagger that ultimately killed the home team:

Jack vs Carter [inbounds passer; 2nd screener for Smith]
DeRozan vs Smith [shooter cutting below the strong side staggered screens]
Weems vs Billups [receiver/passer positioned at the top of the key]
Wright vs Anthony [shooter isolated at the right elbow]
Bosh vs Nene [1st screener for Smith].

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QUESTION

What specific line-up SHOULD the Raptors have used instead of this one?

ANSWER

Weems [6-6, 205] vs Billups [6-3, 202]
DeRozan [6-7, 220] vs Carter [6-2, 195]
Wright [6-7, 215] vs Smith [6-6, 220]
Johnson [6-9, 210] vs Anthony [6-8, 230]
Bosh [6-10, 245] vs Nene [6-11, 250]

If the Raptors had played these last 2 defensive possessions with this different 5-Man Unit, in all likelihood:

Possession #1

Billups would not have been able to get his step-back 3PT jump shot off vs an equally quick but taller defender like Sonny Weems [shot No. 1]; 

and,

Possession #2

Carmelo Anthony would not have been able to get his stand-still 2PT jump shot off vs an equally quick but taller defender like Amir Johnson [i.e. shot No. 2]; and, if he was, then, Toronto would have been in much better position to retrieve the defensive rebound and prevent Anthony from getting off his 1 dribble going left 2PT jump shot … against a smaller defender like Jarrett Jack, or Antoine Wright [shot No. 3].

It really is astounding just how many times different NBA teams actually have the wrong individual match-ups on the floor during specific crunch-time possessions, and how often it can end up costing them a victory, in the process.

and, just stop and think …

How great is it for YOU to be alive today?

Read the following article …

George vs The Dragon

Coaching the wildly talented but wildly uneven Nuggets is hard enough, let alone doing it with throat and neck cancer, but that’s what Karl is trying to do. Everybody tells him it’s not possible, and today, maybe he’s starting to believe them.

With only three of his torturous six weeks of treatment done, and the inside of his mouth looking like he just took 100 bites out of a lava-hot pizza slice, and his head throbbing and his eyes hollow, Karl looks like a guy who should be on a stretcher, not an NBA bench.

“George, this is only going to get harder,” a nurse tells him. “You’re not going to feel like working.” Clearly, she’s never met George Karl.

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then, go and give everyone in your life who you love … a heart-felt bear-hug.

There is simply no better day than THIS in the history of the world.

Deron Williams and the Jazz know what they’re doing

“With Chris Paul sidelined, is any point guard playing better than Deron Williams?”

There are a few things I try not to do. Among them:

• I try not to wake up my wife and kids when they’re sleeping.
• I try not to call people who have little children late at night.
• Realizing I’m a journalist, not a coach, I try not to make statements that rely strictly on my own cobbled-together basketball judgment.
• I try not to curse.

Last night I came this close to breaking all those rules …

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Given the already stated preference of this corner, when forced to choose between CP3 and D-Will …

It’s the Age of the Point Guard, in today’s NBA [Dec 18 2009]

it is now a simple fact that the age-old …

QUESTION of …

Who is the best Point Guard in the NBA today?

… needs to be asked and, then, answered, in a different way than it’s ever been asked before … 

considering THE WAY a certain member of the Cleveland Cavaliers has been conducting his on-court business since approximately Jan 11 2010.

LeBron James’ Complete Game Log

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 Loading ...

THE CORRECT ANSWER is … LeBron James.

[... which is something this corner has been advocating for at least the last 2+ years quite some time ... i.e. Best Point Guards in the NBA: An Update, Jan 30 2008]

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PS. In sharp contrast to other NBA experts/analysts/fans/etc. … there is a good reason why many of the statements and observations which appear on this blog do, in fact, rely mostly on “cobbled-together basketball judgment” rather than elaborate prose and/or the use of unnecessarily complicated new-age statistics. For those of you who took the time to read what Henry Abbott wrote in his introduction, it’s important to always be aware of How the Principle of Opposite functions in The Game of Hoops.

This corner of the blogosphere has been saying for at least the last 2+ years that Deron Williams is, in fact, a better PG than the Annointed One, Chris Paul …  

However, despite the affection which exists here for the members of the TNT Crew, please let it still be known, to one and all, that there is also a VERY BIG difference between making a comparative statement like that, and subsequently christening D-Will as the No. 1 PG, overall, in the entire NBA today … whilest other top dogs, like:

Chauncey Billups
Steve Nash
Tony Parker, and
Jason Kidd

are still running, at near full-throttle, in the pound, and other still-as-yet wet-behind-the-ears young bucks, like:

Rajon Rondo
Devin Harris
Russell Westbrook
Derrick Rose
Rodney Stuckey
Monta Ellis
Tyreke Evans, and
Brandon Jennings

are just beginning to prowl.

Indeed, in the grand history of the game, you might not be able to identify any other era during which quite THIS many [and potentially even more than just the 14 names listed here] very-good-to-perhaps-great Point Guards roamed the floors of the NBA, all at once, on an every day basis.

Toronto Raptors 112
DENVER NUGGETS 130
Tue Nov 17 2009 - Game Scoreboard

With both Hedo Turkoglu [SF, 6-10, 220] and Reggie Evans [PF, 6-8, 245] out of the line-up, the Raptors were “physically” over-matched vs the Nuggets in last night’s game.

ASSESSING INDIVIDUAL MATCH-UPS BASED ON SIZE, STRENGTH, AGILITY AND EXPLOSIVE QUICKNESS

Defensively, from Denver’s perspective

Nene * [6-11, 250, i.e. size and agility] is a terrific check vs Chris Bosh [6-10, 230], anytime that CB4 does not step-off from the block. 

Kenyon Martin * [6-9, 240, i.e. size, strength, agility and explosive quickness] is a terrific check vs Andrea Bargnani [7-0, 250]. Period.

The combination of Nene and K-Mart is a terrific pairing vs CB4 and Bargnani … since: [i] Andrea is a perimeter Center who cannot take Kenyon into the low-post to do damage, and [ii] whenever CB4 steps out to the perimeter it then leaves Toronto with ZERO low-post game.

Chris Andersen * [6-10, 228, i.e. agility and explosive quickness] is a terrific check vs either [a] Amir Johnson * [6-9, 210] or [b] Rasho Nesterovic [7-0, 255.

Arron Afflalo * [6-5, 215, i.e. strength and agility] is a solid check vs DeMar DeRozan * [6-7, 220].

Defensively, from Toronto’s Perspective

Carmelo Anthony * [6-8, 230, i.e. size, strength and agility] is a nightmare for the Raptors. Period.

Chauncey Billups * [6-3, 202, i.e. strength] is a difficult check for the Raptors. Period.

JR [Earl] Smith * [6-6, 220] i.e. expolosive quickness] is a difficult check for the Raptors, when they try to go with Marco Belinelli [6-5, 200, i.e. less strength and less quickness; more offensive skill] instead of Sonny Weems * [6-6, 203, i.e. as much strength and quickness; less offensive skill].

Ty Lawson * [5-11, 195, i.e. quickness] is a difficult check for the Raptors. Period.

Physically, Denver is a superior team to Toronto and simply worn down the Raptors’ best players in the 2nd [36-35/+1], 3rd [33-25/+8] and 4th [33-23/+10] quarters.

There’s no magic answer when these two teams play.

Last night:

Denver generated 105 offensive possessions [with just 3 O-Rebs].
Toronto generated 117 offensive possessions [with 19 O-Rebs].

Denver shot 61.5 [FG%].
Toronto shot 46.2 [FG%].

Denver generated 68 points in the paint.
Toronto generated 34 points in the paint.

Denver scored points at a rate of 1.238 per possession.
Toronto scored points at a rate of 0.957 per possession.

When a team like Toronto [which scores alot of points per game and yields alot of points per game, in return] plays a team like Denver [which scores alot of points per game and yields alot of points per game, in return ... but, also has physically gifted players [*] at several positions] then Toronto is going to end up on the short end of the scoreboard a majority of the time.

When Toronto has faced a Quality Opponent [.500+] this season which has not:

i. Been in the 2nd half of a back-2-back; or,
ii. Made the mistake of playing their 2 hulking centers together vs the combo of Bosh and Bargnani;

the Dinos have performed in the following way:

In general, teams that surrender more than 1.0 points per possession, vs a specific set of opponents, while scoring fewer than 1.0 points per possession themselves, have too many players who are “physically” inferior to their individual counterparts when matched-up with those teams.

Although the top end of the Western Conference is going to be a beast once again this season, those expecting the Nuggets to, perhaps, take a step backwards or sideways, might need to re-think that position, at least, in light of …

Warkentien: Nuggets not afraid to make future moves
“We’ll see where we’re at,” Warkentien said. “I think one thing, and history’s proven it, if we indeed have slipped and we get to that analysis, I think our group has proven that we’ll take the driver out and give it a big swing.”

In addition to accomplishing the priority of re-signing forward Chris Andersen, the Nuggets made a series of small moves during the summer to maintain the continuity of the team. Some fans were a bit antsy that the Nuggets didn’t bring in a big-name free agent ala San Antonio, which added Richard Jefferson or the Lakers, who added Ron Artest.

But the Nuggets have made big moves in the past. The last two being the Chauncey Billups trade last season, and the Allen Iverson trade two years prior to that. But Warkentien stresses that the Nuggets are not just satisfied right now, but confident with what they’ve done and where they stand in the Western Conference.

“We’re in a good spot,” Warkentien said. “If we get stuck, Big Bertha’s coming out. Big Bertha’s still in the bag. We’ve swung that stick before. Institutionally, we’re not afraid to make a move. We’ll pull the trigger.”

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Denver finally began to get IT last season and with Chauncey Billups’ understanding of what it takes to be a champion in this league, expect them to be right there, beside the Mavericks, Blazers, Jazz and Hornets, in an intense battle for the No. 3 and 4 seeds in the WC playoffs this season.

Related:

Melo embraces leadership role

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 11 – at Denver [Tue Nov 17]

At Denver last season [Dec 03 2008] is where things turned ugly for the Raptors, when Sam Mitchell was fired following a lopsided loss. This season’s Nuggets should prove to be too much for the Dinos, as well, with several individual match-up advantages. Although not as deep as last season’s team, Denver should still be one of the better squads in the WC this year, if their key players can remain healthy.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 4-7

Denver jumped over several teams in the Western Conference last season, adding Chauncey Billups to their line-up.

Their challenge this summer was to resign Chris Anderson and then keep the bulk of their team together … thereby, allowing this existing group of players to grow, as a unit … which they have now done for the most part.

i.e. Nuggets re-sign Johan Petro

When you take an Early look at NBA rosters: Western Conference, and:

* Remove the question mark beside Johan Petro’s name, then,
* Remove Linas Kleiza’s name altogether

what you should see is a depth chart which looks like this:

PG: Billups/#2, Carter/#7, Lawson/#11 
OG: Smith/#4, Afflalo/#8, Carter
SF: Anthony/#1, Player #10?
PF: Martin/#5, Balkman/#9, Allen/#13
C: Nene/#3, Anderson/#6, Petro/#12

and still leaves room for one more player to be signed, before the season starts, as a competent back-up for their “superstar” [i.e. Melo], at the SF position.

If Mark Warkentien, Rex Chapman & Co. are able to accomplish this last task, there is now every reason to believe that the Nuggets will remain one of the elite teams in the Western Conference this season.

Q1. Can the Cavaliers rebound from a 1-2 game deficit to win the EC Finals vs the Magic?

A1. Yes, they can.

Q2. Can the Nuggets claw their way back from a similar deficit to vanquish the Lakers in the WC Finals?

A2. Yes, they can.

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Both teams are capable of orchestrating a comeback to reach the Finals this season, based on the prodigious talents of players like Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony & Chauncey Billups.

However … that specific scenario is now quite unlikely to happen.

How come?

From top to bottom, and when healthy …

The two best teams in the NBA today are the Orlando Magic and the Los Angeles Lakers, and each one is simply too good to be overcome by their respective opponents in their conference finals series, both of which are missing key elements when it comes to actually winning the championship.

What The Cavaliers Are Still Missing

* Their best 5-Man Unit has yet to play any significant time together during their series vs Orlando, i.e. PG/Gibson, OG/Pavlovic, SF/James, PF/Varejao & C/Ilgauskas

* Mike Brown needs to develop a better feel for the game, and increased dexterity, as a Head Coach

* A 2nd Marquee Player at the Guard and/or Forward position with good size

What The Nuggets Are Still Missing

* A team playing a thuggish brand of basketball will not win the NBA Championship … because the rules of the game, rightfully, will not allow it

* More poise under pressure from players not named Chauncey Billups

* At least one more year’s worth of experience which goes beyond the 1st Round of the Playoffs

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Looking back on the 2008-2009 regular season schedule:

December 20, 2008, Lakers at Magic, 103-106
January 16, 2009, Lakers vs Magic, 103-109

it’s most likely that this year’s NBA Finals series will have the makings of an all-time classic … even though the current MVP may well have been eliminated from the competition, by that point.

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On May 19, 2009 the wagering odds to win the 2008-2009 NBA Title were as follows:

Los Angeles Lakers
Yes/+220
No/-250 

Orlando Magic
Yes/+1800
No/-2300

both of which are looking like very solid propositions with each passing day.

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Throughout their rosters, both teams have What it takes to win the NBA Championship this season:

Orlando Magic [59-23]
PDR - 4
PAR - 6
RDR - 9
QR -19
QIR - 5
Rafer Alston, Anthony Johnson, Courtney Lee, Tyronn Lue, JJ Redick, Mickael Pietrus, Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Tony Battie, Adonal Foyle, Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat & Stan Van Gundy

Los Angeles Lakers [65-17]
PDR - 2
PAR - 14
RDR - 5
QR - 21
QIR - 6
Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Kobe Bryant, Sasha Vujacic, Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Josh Powell, DJ Mbenga & Phil Jackson

Legend:
PDR - Points Differential Ranking; PAR - Points Allowed Ranking; RDR - Rebound Differential Ranking; QR - Qaulity Rating; QIR - Quality Index Ranking

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Related:

When Orlando has it going