khandor’s sports blog

Where does your favourite team rank at the halfway point in the regular season schedule?

Related:

What it takes to win the NBA Championship

Unlike certain other ”stats gurus” …

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e.g. LeBron is Wrong about LaMarcus Aldridge

The Blazers have won 37 games this far.  The team’s efficiency differential of 0.97 – and corresponding Wins Produced — is consistent with a team that should have won about 34 games.

When we look at performance in 2009-10, though, we see a team that should have won about 43 games.  In other words, the Blazers should have the best record in the West.  And in terms of efficiency differential, the team’s projected mark of 5.4 would only be topped by the San Antonio Spurs and LA Lakers in the West.  In sum, the Blazers – based on last year’s performance – should be contenders in the West.

When we look at how performance has changed, we can see three players – Brandon Roy, Nicolas Batum, and Dante Cunningham — who are responsible for the Blazers failure to contend.  Roy has been hurt, so it is easy to understand his performance decline. 

As for Batum and Cunningham, the trade for Wallace can help resolve both issues.  Thankfully for the Blazers, Jordan took Cunningham in the trade for Wallace.  So a player who was hurting the team is now playing elsewhere.

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… yours truly was not among the list of NBA observers who believed that either Portland or Oklahoma City should be characterized as ”hands-down winners” of the two deals which were completed at the NBA Trade Deadline [i.e. Feb 24, 2011], sending:

A. Gerald Wallace [SF-PF] to the Portland Trail Blazers, in exchange for Joel Przybilla [C], Dante Cunningham [PF], Sean Marks [PF] and 2 Future 1st Round Draft Picks;

and,

B. Nazr Mohammed [PF-C] to the Oklahoma City Thunder, in exchange for DJ White [PF] and Morris Peterson [OG-SF].

In the aftermath of these two trades, the Charlotte Bobcats have endured:

i. A 6-game losing streak [i.e. book-ended by Ws against Sacramento and Portland];

ii. The continued absence of Tyrus Thomas [SF-PF] for a stretch of 7 games [i.e. marked with a $], due to injury;

iii. The absence of Stephen Jackson [OG-SF] for a stretch of 3 games [i.e. marked with a *], due to injury; and,

iii. The absence of Joel Przybilla for a stretch of 4 games [i.e. marked with a ^], due to injury.  

This past Friday, however, Thomas and Jackson each returned to the Bobcats’ line-up.

Despite the on-going absence of Przybilla, the Bobcats have now won two consecutive games, while getting outstanding performances from two unlikely sources, i.e. DJ White [6-9, 251] and Dante Cunningham [6-8, 230] … each of whom is a still-youngish player yours truly first suggested – prior to their respective drafts - would eventually develop into a highly serviceable NBAer,

DJ White, Game Logs/2010-2011
Dante Cunningham, Game Logs/2010-2011

if afforded the opportunity to get consistent minutes.

There are 16 games left in the regular season schedule, and Charlotte is still very much in the hunt for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

It will be very interesting to see how this version of the Bobcats will perform coming down-the-stretch, if they can ever get themselves 100% healthy.

Early today, the New York Knicks waived Corey Brewer/SF and claimed Derrick Brown/SF-PF off waivers … which means that other teams in the NBA with W-L records that are worse than New York’s also had a chance to add either player to their rosters, if they wished to do so.

Approximately 2 weeks ago, Prof. David Berri explained on his blog that he thinks one of the main problems which the Raptors have faced during Bryan Colangelo’s tenure as GM is accurate player evaluations, based on his own “Wins Produced” metric.

With this possibility in-mind …

You are cordially invited to provide your own personal rankings [i.e. from Nos. 1-7] for the following list of players:

DeMar DeRozan [Toronto Raptors]
James Johnson [Toronto Raptors]
Sonny Weems [Toronto Raptors]
Linas Kleiza [Toronto Raptors]
Julian Wright [Toronto Raptors]
Derrick Brown [New York Knicks; waived by the Bobcats]
Corey Brewer [?; waived by the Knicks]

each of whom the Raptors – currently performing as one the worst defensive teams in the entire NBA – had the opportunity to, either, add or delete from their roster over the course of the last 7 days …

based on which one is the best basketball player, overall, when considering all three [3] main phases of the game [i.e. Offense, Defense and Rebounding].

In all likelihood, regular visitors to this space, already know the answer to this question, from the perspective of yours truly.

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:redro esrever ni REWSNA ehT [t'nod uoy esac ni tsuJ]

GO/smeeW ynnoS 7 ,FS/nosnhoJ semaJ 6 ,FS-GP/thgirW nailuJ 5 ,FS-FP/azielK saniL 4 ,GO/nazoReD raMeD 3 ,FS/rewerB yeroC 2 , FP-FS/nworB kcirreD 1 (-:

Of all the trades that were made in conjunction with last week’s NBA Trade Deadline, the one which involved Portland and Charlotte might turn out to have the most negative effect on the immediate fortunes of a specific franchise previously thought to be on the rise by many astute NBA observers.

From the Trail Blazers’ Perspective

Sent to the Charlotte Bobcats:
- Joel Przybilla/C, Dante Cunningham/PF, Sean Marks/PF-C and a future 1st Round Draft Pick

Received from the Charlotte Bobcats:
- Gerald Wallace/SF-PF

When you compare the respective BEFORE vs AFTER rosters for Portland:

what you should be able to see immediately is the GIGANTIC hole which now exists for the Trail Blazers at the Back-up Center position, given the still-injured status of Greg Oden [i.e. former No. 1 Draft Pick] … and just how “small” this team will be anytime LaMarcus Aldridge and Marcus Camby are not on the floor.

When Portland lost to Atlanta, at home, on Sunday night, it was due in large part, to the simple fact that the Hawks pounded the Trail Blazers on the backboards:

Atlanta Hawks, 49 [15/Off]
Portland Trail Blazers, 34 [14/Off]

through the combined efforts of Zaza Pachulia [12], Josh Smith [11] and Al Horford [4].

When the Houston Rockets/#19 pay a visit to the Rose Garden, later on this evening, pay particular attention to whichever team happens to come out on top in the Battle of the Boards … and whether, or not, the Trail Blazers/#18 – who were formerly one of the best Rebounding Differential teams in the NBA, e.g. 2009-2010/#7 and 2008-2009/#1, under the direction of Kevin Pritchard/GM and Nate McMillan/HC - can possibly find a way to address this alarming [and, often-times, fatal] deficiency, in regard to W’s and L’s.

If not … and despite the high degree of R.E.S.P.E.C.T. this corner has for the fine work of Coach McMillan … the last phase of Portland’s regular season schedule this year might well turn out to be extremely disappointing for their exceptionally loyal fanbase, primarily, because – and, in spite of what some “stats gurus” will try to tell you – as good a rebounder as Gerald Wallace happens to be, he DOES NOT play the Center position, and it really does matter a great deal whether, or not, your team actually has a “legitimate” Point Guard, Off Guard, Small Forward, Power Forward and Center in its 5-man unit, at any given point in time, if winning is, in fact, the goal. 

At this point of the NBA regular season schedule, each team has played at least 30 games.

Given the history of the NBA … and what it actually takes to be able to win 4 consecutive best-of-seven games series in the playoffs … there is now a strong possibility that the 2010-2011 League Championship will eventually be won by 1 of the 8 teams shown above in “neon green”.

To everyone who takes the time to visit this little corner of the blogosphere …

Happy New Year!

It is truly amazing how otherwise extremely intelligent people can become wholly mis-directed when they watch and attempt to decipher correctly what has actually happened on a basketball court, concerning the success or failure of a specific team in a particular season.

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The Person Buying the Groceries Might Be the Problem in Charlotte

Let’s summarize where I think the problem lies in Charlotte. 

- Larry Brown was one of the few coaches we found to have a statistically significant impact on player performance (Brown’s impact was only significant at the 10% level).  Yes, Wallace has declined. But I am not sure that is about Brown (I am not sure why that has happened, but I don’t think it is about Brown).

- Even if Wallace had not declined, though, the Bobcats were not likely to be as good as they were last year.  This is because MJ hasn’t been able to find very many productive players.

And now we hear Jordan really wanted Brook Lopez and he might want Baron Davis. If these stories are true, that again doesn’t speak well of the talent evaluation skills of Jordan.   Remember, Jordan once drafted Kwame Brown with the first pick in the draft (a player who is once again with Jordan in Charlotte) and Adam Morrison with the 3rd pick (a player who Jordan could easily have again).  So the track record is not encouraging.  And it is this track record that leads me to think the problem in Charlotte wasn’t the person making the dinner, it was the person buying the groceries.

Let me close by saying I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas and/or a Happy Holidays!!  And although Phil Jackson doesn’t want to work on Christmas, I think most NBA fans are happy he is. Jackson should also remember if he coached the Bobcats, he probably wouldn’t be working on Christmas (yes, Jackson is good, but even the Zen Master couldn’t save this collection of players).  But then — like Larry Brown (and now Paul Silas) — Jackson would have other issues to worry about.

- DJ

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Larry Brown has been a very successful basketball coach over the course of his Hall Of Fame career.

Last season, Larry Brown did a terrific job coaching the Charlotte Bobcats to their first ever playoff appearance, by putting his players in the best possible position to accentuate their individual – and, therefore, collective – strengths while, simultaneously, minimizing their respective weaknesses.

This season, however, Larry Brown stopped doing that … primarily because the cast of players at his disposal was no longer to his liking … and by Game 28 on the Bobcats’ schedule had, instead, become a major factor behind the poor performance of the players on this team, many of whom were no longer listening to what he had to say as their head coach.

Responsibility for what has happened with the Charlotte Bobcats, so far, this season, lies with the following individuals, in this specific order:

1. Michael Jordan, i.e. the person who pays for the groceries;

2. Rod Higgins, i.e. the person who buys the groceries;

3. Larry Brown [and his coaching staff], i.e. the cook who makes the meals;

4. The Leaders amongst their collection of 14 players, i.e. the primary consumers of the meals;

5. The Followers amongst their collection of 14 players, i.e. the secondary consumers of the meals.

The operation of a successful NBA franchise is based upon a “top down” leadership model with 5 specific levels.

Hopefully, Michael Jordan’s recent decision to replace Larry Brown – i.e. the embodiment of an ‘unhappy camper‘ – with Paul Silas – i.e. the embodiment of a ‘happy camper‘ – will mean that the Bobcats have now found a head coach who is more in tune with the specific strengths and weaknesses of the individual players on THIS TEAM, for THIS SEASON and beyond.

Each year in the NBA is different from those which have preceded it.

Unless a team has the right coach … who is actually the ‘right fit’ for its specific collection of players … it has zero chance of reaching its ‘maximum capacity’. 

Paul Silas is off to a solid start as the new old head coach for the Bobcats.

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Silas says Bobcats will play up-tempo style game

Paul Silas’ first practice as the new interim coach of the Charlotte Bobcats Thursday had one noteworthy twist.

Instead of practicing with a 24-second shot clock, the Bobcats worked with a 14-second shot clock.

It’s all part of Silas’ plan to play up-tempo basketball—a stark contrast to the style of his predecessor, Larry Brown, who was fired on Wednesday.

“I want to bring some energy to this ball club,” Silas said after being introduced as the fourth head coach in franchise history. “I want us to get up and down and let it all hang out. If they don’t want to get up and down, they can come sit down by me.”

The Bobcats currently rank 29th in the NBA in scoring, averaging 91.7 points a game. Only Milwaukee is averaging fewer points. The Bobcats have averaged just 80.2 points during their current four-game losing streak and have not scored 100 since beating Denver 100-98 on Dec. 7.

“We’ve got shooters,” Silas said. “We’ve got defenders. We’ve got shot blockers. We’ve got all the ingredients that you need. The guys just have to get out and play and believe in themselves and believe that I believe in them. I’ve found that if you have a confident player, it’s unbelievable what he can do.”

Guard Stephen Jackson(notes) welcomed the commitment to playing up tempo.

“It’s rejuvenating,” Jackson said. “The styles are like night and day. Hopefully this will bring some life to us and give us some confidence and get us playing well again. Up-tempo, we’ve got a great group of young guys and this fits their style. Hopefully we can do a good job at it and enjoy it because it’s definitely fun.”

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With a roster that looks like this:

it’s the right decision for Charlotte to shift to an up-tempo game that can increase the Minutes Played for talented but, thus far, under-utilized youngsters like Tyrus Thomas, Domenic McGuire, DJ Augustin, Derrick Brown and Gerald Henderson.

The collection of players on the Bobcats’ roster at-present is not good enough to contend for a Top 4 spot in the Eastern Conference this season.

Used in the best possible way, however, by their head coach:

[for example]
 

there is more than enough NBA-level talent on this year’s team to remain in the hunt for the No. 8 seed in the playoffs well into the spring, if not for the entire campaign.

When you read the following series of quotes from Larry Brown:

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Jordan’s Bobcats stumbling out of the gate

“What I heard Michael say is basically what we’ve been talking about, but obviously when he says something we all should listen. I’m to a point now that I’m going to play the guys that do it because the results would probably be the same. I’ve got to start playing the guys that do what we ask.”

“Whoever we have, we have and to say it’s D.J.’s problem, that’s not going to get anything accomplished. The only way if you maybe have some deficiencies is you play harder, you compete harder, you execute better.”

“Our second team kicks our first team in practice. What does that tell you?”

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you get a sense that this evening’s game against the Raptors [9-15] might be a turning point for the Bobcats [8-13] this season, whichever way it goes.

If Charlotte is forced to use a line-up which looks like this:

which is what they used in their preceding loss against the Celtics … 

then there’s a very good chance the Bobcats will slip to 6 games below .500 with another L this evening [i.e. 8-14] … unless, of course, Larry Brown can substantially out-manouevre Jay Triano, in terms of in-game strategy & tactics.

OTOH …

If Charlotte is able to field a line-up which looks like this:

then, there’s a fairly good chance the Bobcats will be able to stabilize their play this evening, get a much needed W against the under-manned Raptors, and remain in the hunt for a lower tier playoff spot for the balance of the season.

Despite losing several key contributors from last year’s team [e.g. Raymond Felton, PG; Tyson Chandler, C; and, Theo Ratliff, PF-C] … in an effort to save on player salaries … the Bobcats still have an opportunity to develop into a “competitive” squad this year, if they can get healthy and Coach Brown can begin to put his puzzle pieces together properly.

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Published Wagering Line

Opening: CHARLOTTE -4.5/-110

Current: CHARLOTE -5/-108 [as of 11:30 AM today]

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KSS Prognostication

No call … given the plethora of injuries, and other uncertainties, in place for this game, there’s no way to forecast its outcome with any degree of accuracy.

When Toronto’s basketball brain-trust made the decision to complete the two trades which they made this past weekend that obtained the following 2 players:

Jerryd Bayless [PG/OG] and Peja Stojakovic [SF]

in exchange for the following 3 players:

Jarrett Jack [PG/OG], David Andersen [C] and Marcus Banks [PG]

it accomplished several inter-related things:

1. Opened up a roster spot that will probably be used to sign Erick Dampier [C];

2. Solidified Jose Calderon’s role with this year’s squad, as the Starting PG;

3. Opened up increased playing time for the No. 9 [overall] Selection from the 2010 NBA Draft – i.e. Ed Davis [PF-C] - who is due to re-join their active roster shortly after completing his rehabilitation assignment to the D-League;

4. Improved their chances of competing for a lower tier playoff spot in the Eastern Conference [i.e. No. 6, No. 7 and No. 8] this season;

5. Reduced their chances of finishing in the basement of the Eastern Conference this season;

and,

6. Effectively eliminated their opportunity to obtain Harrison Barnes [G/F, 6-8, 210], as a franchise-changing player who will be available this summer … as a likely Top 3 Selection in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery.

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This is what the NBA Standings look like today, in the aftermath of yesterday’s thrilling victory by the Raptors [5-9/.357, T-12th] over the visiting Celtics [9-4/.692, 2nd];

and, this – i.e. please click on the link - is a comparative evaluation of the rosters for the different teams in the East that should now be able to effectively compete for the last 3 playoff spots this year, as the regular season continues to unfold.

Where the Raptors once had a legitimate chance to obtain a dominant player in next summer’s NBA Draft Lottery, today, this is no longer the case.

Unfortunately …

Personnel moves like these are yet more instances of this franchise opting for a “short term” boost in on-court performance with increased financial flexibility, rather than following a detailed, costly and highly integrated “long term” plan which is designed to gradually improve the organization over a period of years, while also increasing their opportunity to achieve major success, as one of the authentic dominant teams in the NBA.

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Update:

Please see this specific blog entry - from Tuesday, November 24, 2010 - for a more expansive version of why these two trades from this past weekend have improved the NBA talent level on the Raptors’ current – and future – roster this season. 

Despite what many Raptors fans might choose to think …

this evening’s tilt against the Bobcats is not a prime example of a game which Toronto SHOULD actually win this season.

Although Charlotte has struggled to score points on the road, thus far, they have split [i.e. 1-1] their 2 away games played against an opponent with a Team Defense that is actually as poor as the Raptors.

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Published Wagering Line

Open: Toronto -1/+100

Current: Toronto +1/-106 [as of 2:00 PM ET today]

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When push comes to shove in this specific game – in all likelihood - the Bobcats are going to be able to get enough stops to get the win outright … because their overall Team Defense is better, and the Raptors’ overall Team Defense is, in fact, so poor, which should allow Charlotte to score just enough points to succeed … due, primarily, to the individual match-up advantages which exist in their favour at:

i. The Starting OG, SF and PF positions;
ii. The Back-up SF and PF positions; and,
iii. The Head Coach position.

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PS. Of particular interest whenever the Bobcats come to town is the opportunity to watch Derrick Brown go to work, in-person, at the SF [and, sometimes, PF] position – as one of Charlotte’s Key Subs off the bench - since he was one of the handful of players recommended in this space, prior to the 2009 NBA Draft, for the Raptors to select, instead of DeMar DeRozan [OG/SF],

i.e. With the 9th pick of the 2009 NBA Draft, the Toronto Raptors …

Oh, my … what might well have been the case for the Raptors, since then, if they would have only followed that specific advice and come away from that draft night with 2 [or more] solid young rotation players like D-Brown and Marcus Thornton.