khandor’s sports blog

Toronto Raptors [39-42] 111
DETROIT PISTONS [27-55] 97
Complete Game Info

PART 1 - The Twitter Effect

As soon as you read Charlie Villanueva’s tweet from yesterday afternoon …

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Pistons’ Charlie Villanueva guarantees win against Raptors

“Guarantee win tonight, yeah I said it,” is a tweet that appeared on Villanueva’s account about 2:35 p.m. today.

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you just knew that the Raptors would be good to go into Detroit last night and pummel the Pistons.

PART 2 - The Big Ben Effect

Although Ben Wallace/C has had a decent year, defensively, in his return to Detroit, it was rather comical to see the combinations of:

i. He and Jonas Jerebko
[-9 vs Bargnani/Johnson; +2 vs Bargnani/Turkoglu], or

ii. He and Charlie Villanueva
[-4 vs Bargnani/Johnson; -1 vs Bargnani/Turkoglu], or

iii. He and Tayshaun Prince
[-6 vs Bargnani/Johnson], or

iv. He and Jason Maxiell
[-6 vs Bargnani/Johnson]

attempt to guard a perimeter oriented C like Andrea Bargnani … who was shooting the ball well last night … and an energetic under-sized PF like Amir Johnson.

PART 3 - The John Kuester Effect

At the 10:14 mark of the 2nd quarter, with the Raptors leading by 3 points [28-31], Pistons’ head coach, John Kuester:

i. Replaced Ben Gordon/OG with Will Bynum/PG;
ii. Shifted Rodney Stuckey/PG to the OG position; and,
iii. Replaced Charlie Villanueva/PF with Jonas Jerebko/PF-SF;

while keeping Austin Daye/SF and Ben Wallace/C on the floor, against Toronto’s 5-man unit of:

Jarrett Jack, PG
Marco Belinelli, OG
DeMar DeRozan, SF
Hedo Turkoglu, PF and
Andrea Bargnani, C

Jay Triano did not respond with a substitution which created the following individual defensive match-ups for Detroit:

Bynum vs Jack
Stuckey vs Belinelli
Daye vs DeRozan
Jerebko vs Turkoglu, and
Wallace vs Bargnani.

This shift of 14 seconds produced a +2 gain for the Pistons.

At the 10:00 mark, however, Raptors’ head coach, Jay Triano, replaced Hedo Turkoglu/SF-PF with Amir Johnson/PF.

John Kuester did not respond with a substitution for the Pistons which created the following individual defensive match-ups for Detroit:

Bynum vs Jack
Stuckey vs Belinelli
Daye vs DeRozan
Jerebko vs Johnson, and
Wallace vs Bargnani.

This shift of 29 seconds produced a -2 loss for the Pistons.

At the 9:31 mark, Jay Triano replaced DeMar DeRozan/SF-OG with Sonny Weems.

John Kuester did not respond with a substitution for the Pistons which created the following individual defensive match-ups for Detroit:

Bynum vs Jack
Stuckey vs Belinelli
Daye vs Weems
Jerebko vs Johnson, and
Wallace vs Bargnani.

This shift of 1:44 produced a -4 loss for the Pistons … and was halted, temporarily, by an official’s time-out, with Detroit trailing by 7 points [32-39]. 

Coming out from this time-out, John Kuester responded by replacing Jonas Jerebko/PF-SF with Tayshaun Prince/SF.

Jay Triano did not respond with a substitution for the Raptors which created the following individual defensive match-ups for Detroit:

Bynum vs Jack
Stuckey vs Belinelli
Daye vs Weems
Prince vs Johnson, and
Wallace vs Bargnani.

This shift of 2:33 produced a -6 loss for the Pistons … and was halted by a regular time-out, called by Detroit, with Toronto leading by 13 points [34-47].

Coming out from this time-out, John Kuester:

i. Replaced Austin Daye with Ben Gordon/OG-PG;
ii. Shifted Rodney Stuckey/PG-OG to the Small Forward position; and,
iii. Replaced Ben Wallace/C with Jason Maxiell/PF;

while keeping Will Bynum and Tayshaun Prince on the floor, as the PG and PF, respectively.

Jay Triano did not respond with a substitution for the Raptors which created the following individual defensive match-ups for Detroit:

Bynum vs Jack
Gordon vs Belinelli
Stuckey vs Weems
Prince vs Johnson, and
Maxiell vs Bargnani.

This shift of 1:01 produced a -2 loss for the Pistons.

At the 4:13 mark, John Kuester:

i. Replaced Rodney Stuckey with Charlie Villanueva; and,
ii. Moved Tayshaun Prince back to the SF position.

Jay Triano did not respond with a substitution for the Raptors which created the following individual defensive match-ups for Detroit:

Bynum vs Jack
Gordon vs Belinelli
Prince vs Weems
Maxiell vs Johnson, and
Villanueva vs Bargnani.

This shift of 28 seconds produced a +2 gain for the Pistons … and, finally, stopped the Raptors’ run, with Detroit trailing by 13 points [36-49].

This is the type of poor personnel use …

[for example]

a. Having Ben Wallace attempt to check Andrea Bargnani
b. Playing Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey together;
c. Playing Will Bynum, Ben Gordon and Rodney Stuckey together;
d. Playing Tayshaun Prince at PF with Ben Wallace/C; and,
e. Failing to have Villanueva check Bargnani;

by John Kuester which has been responsibile for the bulk of the Pistons’ internal problems this season.

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If the Raptors could just play a steady diet of opponents the same quality as this year’s Pistons … re: coaches and players … then they would have been able to qualify for the playoffs a long time ago.

After losing their last 2 games against the Boston Celtics and the New York Kincks, it will be very interesting to see how the Detroit Pistons respond this evening, when they journey to Cleveland to take on the team with the top W-L record in the NBA.

While many Pistons fans are lamenting the atrocious state of their squad which was sitting at the top end of the Eastern Conference just 2 seasons ago … this corner of the blogosphere does not share a similar level of doom and gloom concerning the goings-on in the Motor City over the last 12 months.

If the Pistons’ everyday rotation/line-up was to look like this:

STARTERS
1. PG, Stuckey [32 MPG, best multi-dimensional PG with good size]
2. OG, Hamilton [32 MPG, best offensive Wing scorer with good size]
3. SF, Prince [30 MPG, best defensive/rebounding Wing player]
4. PF, Maxiell [26 MPG, best rebounding front-court player]
5. C, Brown [22 MPG, best interior defensive/rebounding player]

KEY SUBS
6. PG-OG, Gordon [32 MPG, best combination Guard with solid perimeter J]
7. SF, Jerebko [18 MPG, best defensive/rebounding back-up Wing]
8. PF, Villanueva [22 MPG, best perimeter-oriented scoring Big]
9. C, Wallace [28 MPG, best interior defensive/rebounding Big]

RESERVES
10. OG-SF, Daye [injury replacement minutes which would be a lot this yr]
11. SF-PF, Summers [injury replacement minutes which would be a lot this yr]

EXTRAS
12. PG, Atkins [DNP-CD]

OUTS [who should be package with another asset in exchange for an inside scoring Big]
13. PG, Bynum [amongst the very best back-up PG's in the NBA]
14. PF-C, Wilcox

what Detroit would find is that:

- the rhythm for their 3 principal Guards [i.e. Hamilton, Stuckey and Gordon] would be much improved
- the quality of their PG play overall would be more consistent [i.e. with Stuckey and Gordon, exclusively, running this team]
- their overall level of “Team Cohesion” would improve significantly
- their interior defense would be improved
- their Guard oriented Team Scoring output would be much improved

Contrary to popular belief, this year’s Pistons team actually has a good deal of solid NBA talent that is simply not being used properly by their head coach.

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PS. Just because Daye [i.e. talented OG-SF scorer] and Summers [i.e. talented PF-SF defender/rebounder] haven’t been given the opportunity to play a whole lot of minutes yet this season, Pistons fans should not make the mistake of thinking that either player has a lower long term ceiling than Jonas Jerebko, who has shown great promise thus far in the limited [but increasing] minutes he has received. Pistons fans were told in the summer that the player they were getting in Jerebko has REAL ability to become a solid contributor to a high end team in the NBA, as his career continues to develop. Few chose to believe what they were told at the time. Time has proven, once again, that they were wrong, and that what was said by yours truly was highly accurate. Well, the exact same thing also applies to Daye and Summers. As the next 2 years continue to unfold, what astute Pistons fans should begin to see more and more is that both of these young men have the capacity to develop into frontline contributors for Detroit, down-the-road a piece … provided that each one is eventually used properly by the team’s head coach who, unfortunately, should be someone other than John Kuester. Until Joe Dumars fixes his problem, in this regard, and identifies a proven high end NBA head coach [e.g. Jeff Van Gundy] who can lead his team properly, the abundant talent on this team is merely going to waste.

As a follow-up to yesterday’s take on the sorry state of the once-proud Detroit Pistons …

Detroit Pistons 104 [21-40]
NEW YORK KNICKS 128 [21-39]

Complete Game Info

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Coming off a tough loss on Tuesday night, at home against the Boston Celtics, Detroit played New York fairly even for the first 32 minutes of last night’s match-up at Madison Square Garden, and trailed by only 5 points at the 4:02 mark of the 3rd quarter, when John Kuester made the decision to replace Rodney Stuckey/PG with Will Bynum:

What others should be able to glean from the Pistons’ performance last night … throughout the contest and, specifically, at crunch time … is that WHEN their coach, John Kuester, chooses to:

1. Use Will Bynum [23 MP] as the primary Back-up to Rodney Stuckey [26 MP], at the PG position, instead of Ben Gordon [OG-PG, 23 MP];

2. Use Rip Hamilton [33 MP] at the SF position, from time to time, in a “going small” 5-man unit, rather than exclusively at the OG position;

3. Use Ben Gordon as the primary Back-up to Rip Hamilton, at the OG position, usually in conjunction with Will Bynum/PG, giving the Pistons one of the “smallest” and least effective guard combinations in the league when it comes to defense and rebounding;

4. Use Jason Maxiell [30 MP] as his Starting Center, rather than Kwame Brown [3 MP in garbage time] … while operating beside Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince [33 MP] and Jerebko [33 MP];

5. Use Jonas Jerebko as his Starting PF, rather than starting Jason Maxiell at that position and then bringing Charlie Villanueva [15 MP] off the bench as his primary Back-up;

6. Use Charlie Villanueva as his Back-up Center, rather than starting Kwame Brown at that position and then bringing Chris Wilcox [DNP-CD] off the bench as his primary Back-up;

7. Not use Austin Daye for more than 10 minutes, as a secondary Back-up at the OG & SF positions, in a game where he was the only member of the Pistons who generated a “positive” plus/minus number [i.e. +6], while shooting 43% from the floor, shooting 100% from the FT Line, with 3 Rebs, a positive Ast:TO and 1 St;

and,

8. Not use DeJaun Summers [6-8, 240] for more than 3 minutes, as a secondary Back-up at the SF & PF positions, in a game where their opponent chose to start [and give critical amounts of PT to] a “going big” 5-Man Unit that looked like this:

Option 1

PG, T-Mac [6-8, 223]
OG, Bill Walker [6-6, 230]
SF, Danilo Gallinari [6-10, 225]
PF, Al Harrington [6-9, 250]
C, David Lee [6-9, 250]

Option 2

PG, T-Mac [6-8, 223]
OG, Eddie House [6-1, 180] 
SF, Bill Walker [6-6, 230]
PF, Al Harrington [6-9, 250]
C, David Lee [6-9, 250];

then, the Pistons are unable to compete successfully on Offense, Defense and in terms of Rebounding.

While others in the on-line hoops community are certainly free to assign blame to whomever they think is most responsible for the current mess in Detroit, as far as these eyes are concerned, the Pistons’ main problem this season is rooted in the poor decision-making of their head coach, John Kuester … i.e. in terms of how he is choosing to use his personnel … which has consistently resulted in awful performances similar to last night’s atrocious display in the 4th quarter.

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PS. Those who have followed this blog for the better part of the last 2 years should be able to readily attest that a simple observation of:

“What Team X needs to do in order to turn around their fortunes is fire their head coach,” 

is not the usual reaction from yours truly. In this case, however, there’s a good deal of solid “NBA level talent” that is simply going to waste in Detroit.

It’s been said in this space on several occasions before …

Kelly Dwyer is a talented writer, who just happens to dabble in The Realm of Hoops, while being a basketball fan[-atic] but, from time-to-time, even he is sometimes prone to missing the mark completely, when it comes to analyzing with accuracy what specifically happened in a NBA game that permanently turned the tide in one team’s favour or the other:

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Detroit 93, Milwaukee 81

Another run from the Bucks where they just fell off the face of the earth, offensively. Nine points in the first quarter, and in a contest this slow, that was certain death as Detroit’s offense actually showed up.

Milwaukee rebounded with 29 in the second period, but this thing was more or less over by then. This was an 82-possession game, so that 12-point disparity needs to be reflected on properly. This was a blowout.

18 points on 12 shot attempts for Ben Gordon(notes) in the win.

———————————————

In the opinion of yours truly …

This game was far from being a BLOW-OUT.

Recap; Boxscore; and, Full Play-By-Play

When you take a closer look at the play-by-play, this is what you should be able to see:

This was a 2 point game when the 4th quarter began, i.e. Det 64, MIL 62, and the principal reason Milwaukee lost is because Scott Skiles failed to use his substitutes to their best advantage against a team with specific strengths and weaknesses like Detroit.

i.e. When he made the decision to “go small” up-front, resting Andrew Bogut, and going with the combination of Hakim Warrick/PF and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute/C against the Pistons tandem of Jonas Jerebko/PF and Jason Maxiell/C … during which time Detroit then increased its lead from 4 to 6 points 

i.e. When he then decided to “go small” at the guard spots, as well, matching-up the threesome of Brandon Jennings/PG, Charlie Bell/OG and Carlos Delfino/SF against Rodney Stuckey/PG, Ben Gordon/OG and Tayshaun Prince/SF, when the Pistons increased their size at the PG and SF positions [at the 7:08 mark] … during which time Detroit pushed its lead from 6 to 8 points [before Skiles responded by returning Bogut/C to the game and shifting Mbah A Moute back to PF].

i.e. When he never returned to the 5-Man Units which had been successful for Milwaukee during the earlier stages of the game:

[for example]

Ridnour + Bell + Stackhouse + Warrick + Ilyasova
Jennings + Bell + Stackhouse + Mbah A Moute + Bogut
Jennings + Bell + Delfino + Mbah A Moute + Bogut
Ridnour + Bell + Delfino + Mbah A Moute + Bogut
Ridnour + Bell + Delfino + Ilyasova + Bogut

at any time during the 4th quarter and, instead, chose to use the following combinations of players:

Ridnour + Stackhouse + Delfino + Warrick + Bogut
Jennings + Stackhouse + Delfino + Warrick + Mbah A Moute
Jennings + Bell + Delfino + Warrick + Mbah A Moute
Jennings + Bell + Delfino + Mbah A Moute + Bogut
Jennings + Bell + Delfino + Mbah A Moute + Ilyasova.  

The overall low number of possessions in this game was irrelevant to the eventual outcome.

The fact is …

1. The Bucks’ offense just didn’t “fall off the face of the earth” on its own in the 4th quarter, last night, and neither did the Pistons’ offense just happen to ”show up, all of sudden,” on its own accord.

2. In both cases, they were given a “healthy assist” by the specific personnel decisons which were made in that quarter by the Bucks’ head coach.

3. Congratulations to John Kuester for using his own personnel relatively well last night, in the 4th quarter, given what Coach Skiles was doing in return.

Here’s what yours truly had to say about the Pistons’ fortunes this season back in August and September [2009] with a few of their ardent and vociferous fans at the otherwise terrific site, DetroitBadBoys.com, concerning:

i. The continued development of Rodney Stuckey
ii. The proper role for Will Bynum
iii. The proper role for Rip Hamilton
iv. The proper role for Ben Gordon
iv. The proper role for Ben Wallace
v. The proper role for Jason Maxiell
vi. The proper role for Charlie Villanueva
vi. The proper roles for Jonas Jerebko, Austin Daye, DaJuan Summers and Deron Washington
vii. The proper decisions for John Kuester
viii. The effect of a 3-guard rotation on Team Cohesion
ix. The effect of Team Cohesion on Winning [i.e. Efficency, Effectiveness and Team Excellence]

It’s contagious

Yes, it’s a huge thread with 651 comments [!] … many of which are immature and inane by a certain sub-set of Pistons fans active on that site … but, if you take the time to parce out what was actually said there by yours truly, you should be able to see just how accurate many of those initial comments have been to this point in the Pistons’ season.

Since that time there have been several other articles and discussions concerning the Pistons’ plight this season, at the guard positions, in a variety of different locations on-line:

Could Will Bynum become the Detroit Pistons’ franchise player? [Nov 18]

Bynum or Stuckey? [Nov 19]

Will Bynum > Rodney Stuckey [Nov 20]

Bynum gets love, Stuckey gets none [Nov 25]

Detroit: Stuckey or Bynum – who should start? [Nov 25]

culminating in yesterday’s declaration by the NBA:

Stuckey the East’s Player of the Week

If the Pistons’ long term goal is to eventually regain their former perch at the very top of the Eastern Conference, then, what they’ll continue to do this season is … exactly what yours truly said in the “It’s contagious” thread,

because when a lead guard like Rodney Stuckey [PG, 6-5] gets an opportunity to play the game in this way alongside other elite level performers like:

GUARDS and FORWARDS
Rip Hamilton [OG, 6-7], Ben Gordon [OG-PG, 6-3], Tayshaun Prince [SF, 6-9], Jonas Jerebko [SF, 6-9], Austin Daye [OG-SF, 6-10], Dajuan Summers [PF, 6-9] and Deron Washington [SF-OG, 6-7]

POWER FORWARDS and CENTERS
Ben Wallace [C, 6-9], Jason Maxiell [PF, 6-7], Charlie Villanueva [PF, 6-10], Kwame Brown [C, 7-0] and Chris Wilcox [PF-C, 6-9]

his team has a chance to become a dominant force for years to come, in the NBA, with the benefit of Top Notch coaching and personnel management.

Clearly defining the proper roles for your team’s 2 Point Guards [i.e. I. The Starter; and, II. The Primary Back-up] within an almost exclusively 3-guard rotation, at the Point and Off Guard positions, is a MAJOR COMPONENT of building an elite level squad, when:

* One of your MAIN COGS is an expensive free agent signee, like Ben Gordon, who just happens to be 6-3, 205, and a Combination Guard that can stretch the defense with long distance 3’s and by creating high percentage shots off the bounce, either, for himself or his teammates;

* Another of your MAIN COGS is a seasoned [and wily] veteran, like Rip Hamilton, who is an expert at moving without the ball in his hands and scoring within the mid-range area of the floor; and,

* The 3rd of your MAIN COGS is a terrific young stud, like Rodney Stuckey, with good size and physicality, plus the ability to [A] drive the ball to the bucket and score, [B] convert free throw attempts into points scored, [C] knock down open jump-shots, [D] create high percentage shots for teammates, and [E] Defend and Rebound his own position, in an elite level manner.

The Pistons have now won 5 games in a row, and 6 of their last 7, overall; including 2 solid home-court victories against Atlanta [17-6/.739; 2nd, Southeast] and Denver [17-7/.708; 1st, Northwest].

A healthy Rip Hamilton [OG] is now back in the starting line-up, beside Rodney Stuckey [PG].

It is going to be very interesting to see what John Kuester proceeds to do with a healthy Ben Gordon [OG-PG] and Will Bynum [PG], when each one is ready to return to the Pistons’ regular rotation.

If he slots Gentle Ben [OG-PG] into the rotation as Detroit’s #3 guard, in support of the Stuckey [PG]/Hamilton [OG] pairing … and, alongside of a Maxiell [PF]/Wallace [C] front-court tandem, with support from Villanueva and Brown, and a Small Forward split between Jerebko, Daye and an eventually healthy T-Prince … then LOOK OUT [!], because the Pistons will be joining the Hawks as the “next best two teams” in the EC this season, on the heels of the Celtics, Magic and Cavaliers.  

If he does not do this, however, and, instead, simply returns to using 3 [or more] Point Guards [i.e. Stuckey, Bynum, Gordon, and Atkins], on a regular basis, or using Rip Hamilton frequently at the SF position, in a “small” line-up, or using a 4-guard [or more] rotation, at the PG and OG positions [i.e. Stuckey and Hamilton; Bynum and Gordon; Player X and Atkins], etc., then, unfortunately, the Pistons will continue to flounder this season, hovering about the .500 mark and performing in an inconsistent manner. 

High End teams in the NBA have Quality Depth throughout their roster.

One of the other distinguishing characteristics of these teams, however, is that they are each intelligent enough to pare their rotation down to a “working group” of only 7, 8 or 9 [max.] players; with the rest being able to accept their fate and their proper lesser roles, as reserves, this season.

The first Moment of Truth this season is about to arrive for the Pistons.

How John Kuester chooses to handle it will become a defining moment of his tenure as the head coach for their team. 

Related:

Rip Hamilton praises Pistons coach John Kuester, team’s pluck

Detroit Pistons 99
TORONTO RAPTORS 110
Wed Nov 04 2009 - Game Scoreboard

After battling back from a 17 point 3rd quarter deficit to take a 1 point lead mid-way through the 4th frame, the Pistons then came unglued during a key stretch of 4:25 which, ultimately, sealed their fate in this game:

Line-ups

Play-By-Play

Individual Good/Bad

LES FAUX PAS DES PISTONS

1. Ben Gordon’s individual game stat line from last night looked like this: 

yet, during this stretch of 4:25 in the 4th quarter … with the outcome of the game still in doubt … he did not have the opportunity to shoot the ball even 1 time.

2. When the Raptors made 3 substitution at the 8:42 mark of the 4th quarter … i.e. replacing Amir Johnson with Jose Calderon/PG, Marco Belinelli with Hedo Turkoglu/SF, and Demar DeRozan with Chris Bosh/PF; while leaving Jarrett Jack/OG and Andrea Bargnani/C on the floor … and the Pistons responded with a made 3-PT shot [vs Bargnani/Jack] and a driving layup by Bynum [vs Turkoglu] to re-gain the lead [91-90], John Kuester fell asleep at the switch and decided to continue with the same 5-man unit he had on the floor at the 7:22 mark when Jason Maxiell was called for a PF vs Chris Bosh [defending on the Left Block with the aid of a solid cover down by Rodney Stuckey].

At that precise point in the game John Kuester missed the opportunity to re-work the Pistons’ line-up so that:

* Jason Maxiell was not assigned to cover Chris Bosh

* Austin Daye was not assigned to cover Andrea Bargnani

* Rodney Stuckey was not assigned to cover Hedo Turkoglu

* Ben Gordon was not assigned to cover Jarrett jack

and,

* Will Bynum was not assigned to cover Jose Calderon.

If John Kuester would have made the following subs, instead:

Stuckey vs Calderon
Gordon vs Jack
Villanueva [replacing Bynum] vs Turkoglu
Maxiell vs Bargnani
Wallace [replacing Daye] vs Bosh 

… the Pistons would have been in a much better situation, based on the individual match-ups on the floor, at that time, and would in all likelihood, have been able to fight the Raptors down to the last possession of the game.

3. Instead of making those exact subs at that specific point in the game, John Kuester waited for:

i. Chris Bosh to face-up first Maxiell [Right Block], draw the weak cover down from Bynum [who, at less than 6'0, is useless as a cover down defender], kick-out to Jose Calderon … who buried a huge 3-ball [6:40], to give the Raptors the lead, once again [93-91]; and,

ii. Chris Bosh to re-post vs Maxiell [Right Block], then attack middle with a made jump-hook [5:41, on another weak [late] cover down from Will Bynum;

before he replaced Maxiell with Wallace [vs Bosh], and,

iii. A jump-ball to occur [4:04] before replacing Daye with Villanueva.

——————————

An old coaching bromide that says,

“Players win games in basketball; but, sometimes, coaches can lose them.”

Last night’s final outcome for the Pistons was a prime example of the latter situation … even though Detroit was forced to play without 2 veteran starters, i.e. Rip Hamilton [OG] and Tayshaun Prince [SF], in the 2nd bill of a back-to-back.

Full marks to the Raptors [2-2], however, for seizing upon these gaffes by Detroit … i.e. specifically, Will Bynum/PG and John Kuester/Head Coach … to win a crucial game, from their perspective, as they now head out on the road for 7 of their next 8 contests.

This is what the Dinos have been able to do, thus far, to open the 2009-2010 regular season:

Wed Oct 28 Win vs Cleveland [3-2/.600], 1-0
Fri Oct 30 Loss at Memphis [1-3/.250], 1-1
Sun Nov 01 Loss vs Orlando [3-1/.750], 1-2

Following this evening’s tilt vs Detroit [2-2/.500], however, the next 3 games on their schedule look like this:

Fri Nov 06 at New Orleans [1-3/.250]
Sat Nov 07 at Dallas [3-1/.750], back-to-back
Mon Nov 09 at San Antonio [2-1/.667], 3rd game in 4 nights

According to the Toronto Raptors Season Preview: Game 4 [Sep 24], an astute observer should have been expecting the Pistons to lose this evening’s game, if/when looking at match-up well in advance.

Add-in the fact that two veteran starting players for the Pistons, i.e. Rip Hamilton [OG] and Tayshaun Prince [SF], are now expected to be unavailable tonight, due to their recent injuries, and this SHOULD mean that this game becomes EVEN MORE winnable for the Raptors.

If Toronto is going to try to keep its head above water through the first 20 games of the season … with 3 consecutive road L’s looming on the horizon … winning tonight’s match-up against a depleted Pistons’ squad is absolutely crucial.

One week from today, even if Toronto’s eventual W-L Record stands at a rather inauspicious 2-5, that would still be a might sight better than a thud-like mark of 1-6, which is where they might find themselves [at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, perhaps?] should they fail to win this evening.

With that in mind … it says here that Toronto will play well enough tonight to secure the W and square their W-L Record at 2-2.

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PS. THAT, right there ↑↑↑, is what qualifies as a “legitimate W-L prediction,” from yours truly, for this specific game, for the benefit of those of you who are paying close attention to such matters.

PPS. Whether Toronto can actually get the cover [or not] on this game is a different question altogether. As of now, however, this specific game does not rate as a worthwhile KSS GOTD Selection.

Yet another reason to like the job which Otis Smith [GM] has done, thus far?

NBA Countdown: No. 8 Orlando Magic
Reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in 14 years and second in franchise history was a wonderful accomplishment for the Orlando Magic-but there was no guarantee a championship would follow.The Magic will go into the 2009-10 season determined to defend their Eastern Conference title but looking different than when they won it. Yes, they still have All-Star center Dwight Howard as their foundation and high-priced Rashard Lewis (who’s suspended the first 10 games of the season after testing positive for an elevated testosterone level) shooting 3-pointers, but the Magic changed their late-game, go-to guy by switching from Turkoglu to Carter.

It’s why general manager Otis Smith didn’t take any bows, or even take the time to catch his breath.

And it’s also why he made one of the boldest moves of the summer, changing his carefully crafted team chemistry by trading for All-Star Vince Carter and letting go of free agent Hedo Turkoglu, a key player in Orlando’s recent rise.

“You can’t stand still in this league,” Smith said. “If you do, you’ll be going backward.”

The Magic also added free agents in power forward Brandon Bass from Dallas and small forward Matt Barnes of Phoenix. They even added point guard Jason Williams, who last played during 2007-08 with the Heat. Surprisingly, they kept backup center Marcin Gortat by matching the offer sheet Dallas gave him.

With the Celtics adding Rasheed Wallace and the Cavaliers trading for Shaquille O’Neal, the Magic tried to keep pace with the other serious contenders in the East.

“There are less than seven teams every year that really are trying to win a championship in our league,” Smith said. “Those three (in the East) are trying to win now, as opposed to saying ‘We’re OK where we are. Let’s stay the status quo.’”

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Otis Smith was hired by the Magic on May 6, 2006.

This is what the team’s roster looked like on that day:

Augmon, Stacey F
Battie, Tony PF-C
Cato, Kelvin C
Diener, Travis PG
Dooling, Keyon G
Francis, Steve G
Garrity, Pat PF
Hill, Grant G-F
Howard, Dwight C
Kasun, Mario C
Morris, Terence PF
Nelson, Jameer PG
Outlaw, Bo PF
Stevenson, DeShawn G
Turkoglu, Hedo F

This is what it looks like today, 41 months later:

Almond, Morris G
Anderson, Ryan PF
Barnes, Matt F
Bass, Brandon PF
Carter, Vince G-F
Foyle, Adonal C
Gortat, Marcin C
Howard, Dwight C
Johnson, Anthony PG
Johnson, Linton F
Lewis, Rashard F
Nelson, Jameer PG
Pietrus, Mickael G-F
Redick, JJ G
Williams, Jason PG

This is Orlando’s record of performance, since that date:

2008-2009
59-23/.720, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, NBA Finalist 
2007-2008
52-30/.634, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 2nd Rd
2006-2007
40-42/.488, 3rd Atlantic, 8th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

This was their record of performance the season before Smith arrived:

2005-2006
36-46/.439, 3rd Atlantic, 10th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

3 full seasons into his tenure with the Magic, Otis Smith should be considered as one of the best GM’s in the NBA.

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By way of comparison, for the benefit of Raptors fans, this is what Toronto has accomplished under the direction of Bryan Colangelo [2-time NBA EOTY award recipient] during this same time-frame:

2005-2006 Roster [Feb 28 2006]
Araujo, Rafael PF
Bonner, Matt PF
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
Davis, Antonio PF-C
Graham, Joey F
James, Mike PG
Martin, Darrick PG
Peterson, Morris G-F
Sow, Pape PF
Villanueva, Charlie F
Williams, Eric G-F
Woods, Loren C

2009-2010, Current Roster
Banks, Marcus G
Bargnani, Andrea C
Belinelli, Marco G-F
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
DeRozan, Demar G-F
Douby, Quincy G
Evans, Reggie PF
Jack, Jarrett G
Johnson, Amir PF
Nesterovic, Rasho PF-C
O’Bryant, Patrick C
Turkoglu, Hedo F
Weems, Sonny G-F
Wright, Antoine G-F

Year #1-3
2008-2009
33-49/.402, 4th Atlantic, 13th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs
2007-2008
41-41/.500, 2nd Atlantic, 6th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd
2006-2007
47-35/.573, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

Year Prior
2005-2006
27-55/.329, 4th Atlantic, 1st Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

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In the NBA, the cold harsh reality is that there are only 2 distinct tiers of teams:

Tier 1
Those few that are actually trying to win the League Championship.

Tier 2
Everybody else.

Much R.E.S.P.E.C.T. to Otis Smith for “cutting to the chase” and improving the Orlando Magic each season, thus far.

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Continuing this series … re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 4 – vs Detroit [Wed Nov 04]

The Pistons are one of several teams that should be in contention for a playoff spot in the EC this season. At this point, these two squads seem comparable to one another, from a player personnel and head coach perspective. In a situation like this, the home team usually has enough of an advantage to secure a victory. On the other hand … if Detroit’s veteran back-court can dominate the Raptors’ set of guards, it could easily allow the Pistons to emerge with a hard-earned road W. 

Raptors expected W-L Record: W, 2-2

Thanks to Dave [nbaroundtable] for highlighting this terrific interview with Joe Dumars:

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KL: Is it probably fair to say that he might not start, but he’ll probably be finishing a lot of games?

JD: Well, I have to be careful not to start coaching here, but he is one of the best closers in the game, so I would just say you’re probably going to want your closers on the floor when that time comes.

KL: But Rip, too, has been a good closer, so I assume that means a lot of a three-guard type of attack, which at the end of games seems to be a little more palatable to players than at the start. I know Rip wasn’t crazy about being a starting small forward because he felt it did wear him out a little bit.

JD: That’s where you give your coach options. You give him different options to go small, as you just stated, or just to close games in the last two minutes, put the ball in Ben’s hands and let Rip play off the ball. Have Tayshaun at the three and put the ball in Tayshaun’s hands and let him initiate the offense for two minutes and have Rip and Ben on the wings. What you want to do is give your coach options and to have people on the floor who can attack the defense and put the defense in a tough spot.

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If you want to learn more about how someone like Joe D. actually thinks … which is very different than a great many regular “fans” … or, in fact, some NBA observers … Do yourself a favour and read the whole thing, i.e. Parts I [audio, as well] & II.