khandor’s sports blog

What a certain so-called ‘basketball expert’ has said recently about the plight of the New York Knicks and the future possibility of Phil Jackson becoming their head coach for next season:

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Chris Palmer on twitter

Carmelo & Amar’e – 2011: 51.6 ppg; 2012: 39 ppg

27 minutes ago

Phil Jackson and the 2012 Knicks would be perfect for each other.

No team with as much talent as the Knicks should have a losing record. Ever.
about 1 hour ago

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… could not, possibly, be further from the truth.

Simple facts regarding the New York Knicks and Phil Jackson:

#1. James Dolan, historically, has been a meddlesome owner.

#2. At this stage in his life, Phil Jackson – at 67 years of age – has zero need to work for a meddlesome owner.

#3. New York presently has only 2 players who would fit readily with a Phil Jackson coached team: i. Landry Fields; and, ii. Iman Shumpert; as solid, multidimensional, players.

#4. Specifically, Amare Stoudemire [i.e. as a Pick & Roll and Isolation Big, exclusively], Carmelo Anthony [i.e. as an Isolation Forward, exclusively], Tyson Chandler [i.e. Defensively-focused Center, exclusively], Jeremy Lin [i.e. as a defensively weak starting PG], JR Smith [i.e. as a Perimeter 'jacker', exclusively], and Baron Davis [i.e. as a defensively weak back-up PG] are the anti-thesis of what could be accurately described as “a good fit player for the Triangle Offense“, based on their individual skill sets.

#5. Although Mike D’Antoni has, indeed, done a poor job of dealing with the myriad egos on the Knicks, since Carmelo Anthony has returned to their active line-up … in no way should Phil Jackson – and the Triangle Offense – be seen as an elixir to their present [and future] ailments.

If New York Knicks actually want to hire a highly experienced NBA championship winning coach with a different mind-set than Mike D’Antoni, who has a history of working well with established veterans and would be a decent fit with their current roster they should think seriously about one of their own former coaches, i.e. Mr. Larry Brown.

Q. How good can the New York Knicks become, if they get 100% healthy?

A. With the addition of a solid, good-sized, PG like Jeremy Lin, and a full line-up that looks like this:

OWNER – James Dolan

GENERAL MANAGER – Glen Grunwald

HEAD COACH – Mike D’Antoni

STARTERS

PG, Jeremy Lin [acquired December 27, 2012]
OG, Landry Fields
SF, Carmelo Anthony
PF, Amare Stoudemire
C, Tyson Chandler

KEY SUBS

PG, Baron Davis
OG, Iman Shumpert
SF, Bill Walker
PF, Jared Jeffries
C, Steve Novak

RESERVES/EXTRAS/OUTS

PG, Toney Douglas
PG, Mike Bibby
PF, Renaldo Balkman
PF/C, Josh Harrellson
C, Jerome Jordan

New York should be good enough to qualify for the playoffs and, perhaps, advance to the EC semi-finals.

There are many good reasons this little corner of the net has long held that Jerry West deserves to be placed in an exalted category among NBA General Managers:

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Last season it was Carmelo Anthony. This season it’s Dwight Howard. Players who hold the threat of walking as a free agent over a team to force a trade to a destination they prefer.

Jerry West wants none of it. He says teams should call the player’s bluff — make him leave the money on the table to walk away.

The legendary player and long-time league GM of the Lakers and Grizzlies (and current Golden State minority owner and team consultant) was asked in interviews on ESPN Radio in Los Angeles how he would handle such a situation if it were his team.

“I honestly think I’d call their bluff,” West said in an interview on 710 ESPN’s Mason and Ireland show Thursday, not mentioning Howard specifically. “I really would, because I don’t think any agent or player is going to leave $30 million on the table. I just don’t believe that’s going to happen….”

“If I were an executive on a team where a player says he’s going to leave, let him leave,” West said on 710 ESPN’s Max and Marcellus show earlier Thursday. “It would be better than saddling yourself with a bunch of players that are not going to fit in to what you’re trying to do — high-salaried players, in many cases overpaid players by today’s standards, that would burden you going forward.

“I’d almost rather start over again myself. You’re not going to replace that player, but there’s an enormous penalty there and it looks like to me like the inmates are running the asylum if you let that happen.”

Jerry West just became very popular in Orlando.

West has always been a risk taker and his strategy comes with one big risk — that the player isn’t bluffing and would leave. Meaning the franchise gets nothing. Maybe West would rather just start over, but if you hold out like Denver did (and find an owner like James Dolan who caves to work with) you can get a fair amount of talent back.

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The most important of which involves a specific perspective on the game of life that transforms negatives into positives, at all costs.

i.e. When a free agent leaves your team it is simply not the case that, “The franchise gets nothing [in return].” The simple facts are that: i) The franchise actually gets the Salary Cap space formerly associated with the departing player to use as it sees fit going forward; and, ii) The departing free agent gets to sign an employment contract with a new team worth $30.0 M less than he could have received from his former team.

If someone says that they no longer wish to work with you, or your team, then, once their present contract expires, you should simply wish them well and allow them to leave, so that you are in position to continue moving forward without them.

It really isn’t about the playing bluffing games at all.

What it’s really about is the important difference between: a) Being a Winner; and, b) Being a Loser.

According to Justin Kubatko, the creator of basketball-reference.com and the author of the following article for the New York Times …

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Keeping Score: Why the Nuggets are winning

With Wednesday night’s impressive road victory over the Atlanta Hawks, the Denver Nuggets improved to 9-2 since the trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks.

And although most analysts felt the Nuggets received a favorable return in the deal, few expected them to play this well without their star.

A closer look at the team’s numbers with Anthony and without him reveals some significant changes on both ends of the floor.

Perhaps the two biggest criticisms of Anthony while he was in Denver were his propensity to dominate the ball on the offensive end and his effort (or lack thereof) on the defensive end.

Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of plays that a player used while he was on the floor, where a play is defined to be a combination of field goal attempts, free throw attempts and turnovers. If a team distributed its plays equally among all of its players, then each individual would have a usage percentage of 20 percent.

Anthony’s usage percentage in Denver was 32.6 percent, the second-highest rate in the N.B.A. That, coupled with the fact that Anthony averaged 35.5 minutes a game, meant that the Nuggets’ offense was predominantly run through a single player.

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There still seems to be some degree of ”uncertainty” concerning the “unexpectedly” terrific play of the Denver Nuggets, in the aftermath of their recently completed trade with the New York Knicks.

Question

Given the actual quality of the personnel for the present version of the Nuggets, should this really be the case, at all? 

Answer

FWIW …

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[comment from April 8, 2011, 2:17 AM]

Prior to the Melo/Billups trade, Denver was a very talented team that was under-performing in the regular season – compared to the team from 2 years ago – due to a number of different factors, including:

i. Injuries to Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin;

ii. Turmoil surrounding the impending trade of C-Anthony;

iii. George Karl’s on-going recovery from last season’s bout with cancer; and,

iv. The loss of important role/back-up/bit players like Linas Kleiza and Johan Petro.

If this year’s team had been 100% healthy from the start of the season [including George Karl], however … and not immersed in the Melo/Billups trade controversy … then, the Nuggets would have most likely been one of the top 3 teams in the West all year long, based strictly on the strength of their personnel.

THEN …

When Masai Ujiri [GM] was able to extract a “motherload of still-young legitimate NBA level talent” from the Knicks, in exchange for what Denver only had to give up:

TO NEW YORK
C-Anthony + C-Billups + A-Carter + R-Balkman

[Please Note: Shelden Williams was also included in this trade.]

TO DENVER
D-Gallinari + W-Chandler + R-Felton + T-Mozgov + 2 Future 1st Round Draft Picks

[Please Note: The Nuggets only received 1 Future 1st Round Draft Pick from New York.]

it should actually NOT come as a surprise, at all, that THIS new version of the Nuggets is a pretty darn good outfit … when you put the newcomers together with the return to good health of Kenyon Martin [close to 90%] and Chris Andersen [close to 80%].

In early February [Please Note: It was actually back in January], well before the trade deadline, I forecast on my blog that the Denver Nuggets would likely be THE MOST IMPROVED TEAM in the NBA after the All-Star Break, if they CHOSE NOT to trade C-Anthony this year.

‘Non Top 4′ team most likely to reach the NBA Finals this season

Given what Denver got back from New York in the Melo/Billups trade, my forecast remains the same today.

Those who think the Nuggets are a prime example of the sum of the parts being greater than the value of the whole are simply ignorant of just how good the following individual players and coaches actually are:

STARTERS
1/Lawson/PG + 2/Afflalo/OG-SF [or Chandler] + 3/Gallinari/SF + 4/Martin/PF + 5/Nene/C

KEY SUBS
6/Felton/PG, 8/Chandler/OG-SF [or Afflalo], 7/Smith/SF-OG, 9/Andersen/PF-C and 10/Harrington/PF-C

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RESERVES
11/Forbes/SF [i.e. as good an 11th man as there is in the NBA] and 12/Mozgov/C [i.e. as good a 12th man as there is in the NBA]

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EXTRAS/OUTS
Ely/PF-C [i.e. as good a 13th man as there is in the NBA] and Koufos/C [i.e. as good a 14th man as there is in the NBA]

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HEAD COACH
Karl [i.e. as good a Head Coach as there is in the NBA, today, other than Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich]

because of an over-reliance on simplistic “statistical-based pseudo basketball analysis”.

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Enjoy!

PS. Afterall, it’s Masters Week, again! … and, the unoffical start of Spring!

Related:

Knicks, Nuggets and Timberwolves complete ‘blockbuster’ trade

Nuggets, Melo, Billups & Co. should be making legit bid to win Denver’s first NBA title

Prior to completing their recent trade for Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Renaldo Balkman and Anthony Carter, the New York Knicks were 28-26/.519 and in 6th place in the Eastern Conference Standings.

Q1. How have the Knicks performed since making that trade?

A1.

In a way that has actually been fairly consistent with what was first said here … back on Tuesday, February 22, 2010 … would most likely be the case.

As Donnie Walsh/GM and Mike D’Antoni/HC continue to fill-in places on New York’s roster, it will be most interesting to see if this changes significantly, during the remainder of the regular season schedule and into the playoffs.

If the New York Knicks were indeed forced to include each of the following assets in their just-completed trade for Carmelo Anthony:

1. Raymond Felton/PG;
2. Danilo Gallinari/SF-PF;
3. Wilson Chandler/OG-SF;
4. Timofey Mozgov/C;
5. Anthony Randolph/SF-PF [sent to Minnesota];
6. Eddy Curry/C [sent to Minnesota];
7. 1 Future 1st Round Draft Pick [2014]; and,
8. 2 Future 2nd Round Draft Picks [obtained from Golden State in exchange for David Lee last summer]; 

then, it was certainly a hefty price to pay for the “opportunity” to field the following line-up the remainder of this season:

STARTERS
1 Chauncey Billups, PG
2 Landry Fields, OG
3 Carmelo Anthony, SF
4 Ronny Turiaf, PF
5 Amare Stoudemire, C

BACK-UPS
6 Tony Douglas, PG
7 Andy Rautins, PG-OG
8 Roger Mason, PG-OG
9 Kelenna Azubuike, OG-SF
10 Bill Walker, OG-SF
11 Shawne Williams, SF-PF
12 Renaldo Blackman, PF
13 Shelden Williams, PF

and “the possibility” of adding a player like Chris Paul, as well, somewhere down-the-road.

If Denver and Minnesota do actually decide to keep each of the players obtained by their respective teams in this reported transaction:

then, it may well be the case that:

1. New York has obtained the best player involved in these trades, but may still have failed to appreciably advance their franchise, in pursuit of winning a League Championship;

2. Denver may have obtained as close to “fair value”, as possible, in exchange for their disgruntled former “star” player who did not wish to sign a contract extension with their team;

and,

3. Minnesota may have made out like bandits, by acquiring 2 solid assets for their franchise, in exchange for only 1 ”spare part” on their current roster.

Time will tell if this transaction actually marks the end of Donnie Walsh’s tenure with the Knicks or, if it ushers in an era of renewed long term prosperity for the once-proud franchise, under the continued direction of its aging native son. 

Based upon the actual ‘talent level’ of the players on their present rosters …

The Top 4 teams in the Western Conference this season might actually be:

1. Los Angeles Lakers [29-11/.725, currently in 2nd place]

2. San Antonio Spurs [33-6/.846, currently in 1st place]

3. Denver Nuggets [22-16/.579, currently in 6th place]

4. Oklahoma City Thunder [27-13/.675, currently in 4th place]

5. Dallas Mavericks [currently in 3rd place]
6. Houston Rockets [currently in 10th place]
7. Utah Jazz [currently in 5th place]
8. Memphis Grizzlies [currently in 9th place]
9. Portland Trail Blazers [currently in 8th place]
10. Phoenix Suns [currently in 11th place]
11. Golden State Warriors [currently in 12th place]
12. Sacramento Kings [currently in 15th place]
13. New Orleans Hornets [currently in 6th place]
14. LA Clippers [currently in 13th place]
15. Minnesota Timberwolves [currently in 15th place]

and, in the opinion of yours truly …

Stan and Josh Kroenke should be considered guilty of ‘operating in bad faith’ this season, if/when they do not try their very best to win the 1st NBA Championship in Nuggets’ history, on the heels of dismissing Mark Warkentien last summer and Brett Bearup earlier this fall.

According to TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott …

John Hollinger’s 2010-2011 NBA Playoff Odds

means that the season is already over for some teams in the NBA.

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As of yesterday:

This is what the NBA Standings looked like.

However …

According to yours truly:

[as of Friday, December 31, 2010]

This is what the list of Contenders To Win the 2010-2011 NBA Championship: Part 1 actually looked like:

   
which means that 22 of the 30 teams had already been eliminated from legitimate contention for the League Championship this season by New Year’s Eve …

and, given that it now looks as though the Dallas Mavericks will be without the services of Caron Butler [Starting SF] for the remainder of the season … 

The No. 1 ‘non Top 4′ team in the current standings which you should keep your eyes fixated on, as the rest of the season unfolds, is the Denver Nuggets [i.e. tied for 5th place - with the LA Lakers - with an 8.5% chance of reaching the NBA Finals, according to Mr. Hollinger, despite having only the 12th best W-L Record in the league].

Considering the injuries and absences sustained, thus far, by different members of Denver’s regular rotation, a line-up which looks like this [see below]:

should be able to reach the Western Conference semi-finals again this season and, quite possibly, shape up as a legitimate threat to make it to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history … if the Nuggets [A] can remain healthy for the balance of the regular season - including their head coach, George Karl – and [B] Masai Ujiri [GM] has the resolve required to not trade Carmelo Anthony [Starting SF/PF] prior to the Trade Deadline.

There has considerable debate in the on-line hoops community recently, regarding the actual worth of Carmelo Anthony/SF-PF, as a supposed “top drawer” NBA player.

Examining this cacophony of mostly nonsense, perhaps, no other single article stands out as much as this one:

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What Carmelo Anthony Might Have Cost the Bulls (besides money)

Let me close by noting an article on Red Auerbach by Beckley Mason.  One suspects — after reading this article — that Auerbach wouldn’t have been fooled by Carmelo Anthony.  Consider the following quote (from something I posted three years ago and very similar to what Mason noted):

Auerbach said that the Celtics represent a philosophy that in its simplest form maintains that victory belongs to the team. “Individual honors are nice, but no Celtic has ever gone out of his way to achieve them,” he said. “We have never had the league’s top scorer. In fact, we won seven league championships without placing even one among the league’s top 10 scorers. Our pride was never rooted in statistics.”

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when it comes to representing accurately the practical dilemma associated with an over-reliance on “statistical” information in the proper evaluation of what is truly important in a NBA game, in the first place.

The only meaningful question which remains, at this point, is this:

Q1. Do you think David Berri actually understands the irony involved with his use of the final 7 words of Red Auerbach’s cited quotation? … in a mostly fruit-less attempt to be-little the skill-set of a stalwart scorer/player like Carmelo Anthony.

A1. FWIW, yours truly is of the belief that he actually does not.

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PS. IMO, if Red Auerbach was in charge of the Chicago Bulls today … although he would have no interest in trading Luol Deng/SF + Joakim Noah/C, straight-up for Carmelo Anthony/SF/PF, at this time … he would, in fact, have no qualms, whatsoever, in trading a slightly different package of Luol Deng/SF [$11.3 M] + Ronnie Brewer/OG-SF [$4.7 M] + Kurt Thomas/PF [$1.8 M] + a future 1st Round Draft, to the Denver Nuggets, in exchange for Melo [$17.1 M] … on Dec 16, 2010, after the various trade restrictions on a few of these specific players will have expired.

The influence of Tom Thibodeau - new head coach – is already front and center in the day-to-day operation of Da Bulls.

Exhibit A

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Would you deal Joakim Noah for Carmelo Anthony?

In hiring Thibodeau, you have put yourself on a course to make defense your calling card. “The Bulls two best defenders, by far,” says David Thorpe, “are Luol Deng and Joakim Noah. Coaches can help players improve at that end, but it’s asking an awful lot to make a great defense out of Carmelo Anthony, Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer.”

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If Chicago eventually rejects a proposed trade with Denver that would involve an exchange of Noah [i.e. a top notch defender] for Anthony [i.e. a top notch scorer] it’s a clear sign where the priority is going to be placed for the next few seasons in Da Bulls systems of play.

Exhibit B

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After five seasons with the Boston Celtics, forward Brian Scalabrine has agreed to a non-guaranteed contract with the Chicago Bulls, a league source told Yahoo! Sports.

Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau wanted Scalabrine as part of his first season in Chicago and pushed hard for him with general manager Gar Forman and vice president John Paxson, sources said.

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When it comes to winning and losing basketball games, the actual “contributions” – both, on and off the court – of an authentically high end 13th man [i.e. multi-dimensional and of exceptionally sound character] to a well-functioning elite level team, are just as important as the on-court “production numbers” of its marquee players.

Given the following roster of players:

Chicago should have little trouble earning a mid-level playoff spot this season, under the direction of a standout defensive-minded practicioner like Tom Thibodeau.