Posts Tagged ‘Carlos Delfino’

Mis-diagnosing what went wrong for the Bucks last night

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

RAPTORS vs Bucks, Preview

Friday, January 22nd, 2010

For the benefit of both Raptors and Bucks fans:

 

RAPTORS

Adv

BUCKS

RATIONALE

STARTERS

Jack, PG

=

Jennings, PG

Both are solid on Off and Def. Although Jennings more explosive offensively, Jack is a veteran who should be able to use his savvy to keep the rook in check.

DeRozan, OG

=

Delfino, OG

DeRozan is more explosive on Off; although, Delfino is the better all-around player at this stage [i.e. vet vs rook].

Turkoglu, SF

ß

Mbah A Moute, SF

Turkoglu SHOULD be the better player. If he is not, the Raptors will be at a major disadvantage going with any other wing player in this spot.

Bosh, SF

ß

Ilyasova, PF

Bosh is the superior player. Period.

Bargnani, C

=

Bogut, C

Bargnani is much better on the perimeter. Bogut is solid in the post. Bargnani is a more explosive scorer; while Bogut is a superior Rebounder and Team Defender. Conflicting Styles make for a good fight.

 

 

 

 

 

KEY SUBS

Calderon, PG

ß

Ridnour, PG

El Matador SHOULD be the better player. If he is not, the Raptors will be at a major disadvantage and will probably lose this game.

Belinelli, OG

=

Bell, PG-OG

Belinelli’s better offense is cancelled out by Bell’s better defense and rebounding.

Wright, SF

=

Stackhouse, SF

Stack was once a vastly superior player to Wright; but, Stack has played very little over the last 2 years.

Johnson, PF

=

Warrick, PF

Johnson is the better defender/rebounder. Warrick is better offensively.

Nesterovic, C

=

Elson, PF-C

Nesterovic has more veteran savvy; but, Elson is a moderately effective, lively [i.e. relatively athletic], still-youngish player.

 

 

 

 

 

RESERVES

Banks, PG

=

Meeks, OG

Neither is going to have an impact on the outcome.

Weems, OG-SF

à

Thomas, PF-C

Weems is a better player than Wright but is not being used properly at-present. Thomas is a solid vet with a great deal of tenacity and savvy.

COACH

Jay Traino

à

Scott Skiles

Skiles is an experienced NBA head coach, who was a tough-minded, former NBA player; Triano is neither of these 2 things.

QIR/QR

#23/66

à

#19/55

TOR = 17th/PDR, 26th/PAR, 23rd/RDR; Mil = 18th/PDR, 15th/PAR; 22nd/RDR.

Home

Yes

ß

No

TOR Home = 13-6; Mil Away = 5-16

EXPECTED RESULT
TORONTO should win outright.  Covering the final number [-7.5/-105], however, might not be a sure proposition.

Legend: QIR – Quality Index Ranking [No. 1-30]; QR – Quality Rating [PDR + PAR + RDR]; PDR – Points Differential Ranking; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking.

Enjoy! … what should prove to be a very entertaining and close game.

Two ships passing in the night, in Raptorville

Thursday, December 10th, 2009

The word “benchmark” has the following definition:

bench·mark (bnchmärk)

n.
1. A standard by which something can be measured or judged: “Inflation . . . is a great distorter of seemingly fixed economic ideas and benchmarks” (Benjamin M. Friedman). See Synonyms at standard.
2. often bench mark A surveyor’s mark made on a stationary object of previously determined position and elevation and used as a reference point in tidal observations and surveys.
tr.v. bench·marked, bench·mark·ing, bench·marks
To measure (a rival’s product) according to specified standards in order to compare it with and improve one’s own product.

As was mentioned yesterday, last night’s contest between Toronto and Milwaukee should have been viewed by each team as a pivotal game, and an early season barometer for where their respective franchise stands in relation to the other middle-of-the-pack squads in the Eastern Conference.

Toronto Raptors 95
MILWAUKEE BUCKS 117
Complete Game Summary

By no means should the Bucks be viewed as an ideal, or even an up-and-coming, franchise in the NBA, at this point in time. Milwaukee has:

- a talented, young Starting-calibre PG
- a defensively stout young Starting-calibre SF-PF 
- an all-around solid Starting-calibre C

who they can build around moving forward …

- a solid, experienced, head coach

who they can build with moving forward … and,

- a dead-weight former “franchise player”

who is no longer a major part of their team with a fairly hefty contract that is due to expire in just 2 years

- a slew of good-but-still-far-from-being-very-good back-up players on their roster

who they can use to fill in the gaps, while hoping to field a highly competitive team, on an annual basis …

and, then, prescious little more than that.

Yet, last night, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, after losing 8 of their previous 9 games … they were still able to dismantle the Raptors on the strength of [a] Brandon Jennings first-half scoring exploits, [b] solid team defense, and [c] individual offensive contributions from a host of different back-up players [e.g. Ersan Ilyasova , 17 pts; Roko Ukic, 17 pts; Carlos Delfino, 14 pts; Luke Ridnour, 15 pts].

Raptors fans who thought that their team’s recent 3-game winning streak was an authentic indication of a “righted ship”, heading toward the upper-middle region of the conference standings, sometime soon, were simply being delusional, once again. 

The road victory over Washington [7-12/.368, 10th/EC] was an overtime decision that could have gone either way at the end of regulation and at the final buzzer when Gilbert Arenas inexplicably missed an open lay-up.

The road victory over Chicago [7-13/.350, 11th/EC] was a relatively meaningless encounter against an opponent that is currently in free-fall … coping with [I] debilitating injuries to 2 key rotation players, both of whom are solid defender/rebounders, at their respective positions, and [II] the loss of their leading scorer from last season [i.e. Ben Gordon, who was not retained, as an UFA, this past summer].

The home victory over Minnesota [3-19/.136; 15th/WC] was secured in the final 90 seconds, when a 3PT shot from Antoine Wright [3FG% = 30.2] found the bottom of the net to push the Raptors’ precarious lead from 2 to 5 points.

On the other hand, last night’s game against the Bucks was a different beast entirely.

The Bucks were looking ahead at their next 3 opponents … i.e. vs the Blazers, vs the Lakers and @ the Cavaliers … and not liking what they saw, at all.

The Bucks are a solid middle-of-the-pack team this season:

[Ratings as of Mon Dec 05, 2009]

 

Match-up

PDR

PAR

RDR

QR

QIR

Raptors

20

29

17

66

23

WIZARDS

21

19

15

55

20

 

Match-up

PDR

PAR

RDR

QR

QIR

Raptors

20

29

17

66

23

BULLS

28

13

23

64

22

 

Match-up

PDR

PAR

RDR

QR

QIR

T-wolves

30

24

25

79

28

RAPTORS

20

29

17

66

23

 

Match-up

PDR

PAR

RDR

QR

QIR

Raptors

20

29

17

66

23

BUCKS

15

17

22

54

19

In last night’s game, key [revealing?] stats included:

STATS

Raptors

BUCKS

Points

95

117

FGA

68

80

TO

13

9

FTA

33

28

FTA * .44

15

12

Poss

96

101

TSV

181

209

Pts/TSV

0.525

0.560

Pts/Poss

0.990

1.158

Legend: FGA – Field Goal Attempts; TO – Turnovers; FTA – Free Throw Attempts; Poss – Possessions; TSV – Total Shot Value; Pts/TSV – Points per Total Shot Value; Pts/Poss – Points per Possession.

When an opponent converts 3.5% more of its Total Shot Value, creates 5 more Possessions and a Points per Possession differential of 0.168, it indicates that your team was out-classed in a number of different ways.  

1/4 of the way through the regular season schedule, what should now be a legit concern for the Raptors organization, and its fanbase, is what you see when you look at the following two charts; appraising [i] where these two teams were last night:

RAPTORS, 9th

W-L, 10-14/.417

Current Streak, L1

Last

Night

Adv

BUCKS, 6th

W-L, 10-11/.476

Current Streak, W1

Starters

Jack

à

Jennings

DeRozan

0

Delfino

Turkoglu

0

Mbah A Moute

Nesterovic

à

Bogut

Bosh

ß

Ilyasova

Key Subs

Banks

à

Ridnour

Belinelli

0

Ukic

Wright

0

Meeks

Johnson

0

Warrick

Reserves

Weems

0

Bell

Mensah-Bonsu

à

Thomas

O’Bryant

à

Gadzuric

Extras/Out

Calderon-inj.

ß

Redd-inj.

Evans-inj.

ß

Alexander

Bargnani-inj.

ß

Elson

Head Coach

Jay Triano

à

Scott Skiles

General Manager

Bryan Colangelo

0

John Hammond

Owner

MLSE

0

Herb Kohl

+4

Total

+6

and, then, [ii] where it looks as though they might be headed in the immediate future:

RAPTORS, 9th

W-L, 10-14/.417

Current Streak, L1

Future

Adv

BUCKS, 6th

W-L, 10-11/.476

Current Streak, W1

Starters

Calderon

à

Jennings

DeRozan

ß

Delfino

Turkoglu

à

Mbah A Moute

Bosh [UFA, 2010]

ß

Ilyasova

Bargnani

0

Bogut

Key Subs

Jack

0

Ridnour

Belinelli

0

Redd [UFA, 2011]

Wright

à

Meeks

Johnson

0

Warrick

Reserves

Weems

0

Bell

Evans

à

Thomas

Nesterovic

à

Gadzuric

Extras/Out

Banks

à

Ukic

Mensah-Bonsu

0

Alexander

O’Bryant

à

Elson

Head Coach

Jay Triano

à

Scott Skiles

General Manager

Bryan Colangelo

0

John Hammond

Owner

MLSE

0

Herb Kohl

+2

Total

+8

When the 2009-2010 off-season arrives and Chris Bosh sits down to evaluate where his chances might be the best to effectively challenge for a future NBA championship, realistically, do you think that he is going to perceive the Toronto Raptors as the No. 1 place for him to accomplish this goal in the no-too-distant future?

A team which might even be considered as beneath the decidedly “average” Milwaukee Bucks on the authentic depth chart in the East this season?

The Raptors next 4 games are:

Fri Dec 11 vs Atlanta [QR = 30; QIR = 9]
Sun Dec 13 vs Houston [QR = 42; QIR = T-13]
Tue Dec 15 @ MIAMI [QR = 42; QIR = T-13]
Wed Dec 16 @ ORLANDO [QR = 17; QIR = 2]

Legend: QR – Quality Rating [PDR/Points Differential Rank + PAR/Points Allowed Rank + RDR/Rebounding Differential Rank]; QIR – Quality Index Ranking [#1-30]; as of Sun Dec 06.

When assessing the relative strength of these 4 opponents, it’s imperative that the Raptors [10-14] get their act together quickly, substantially improve their Team Defense, and win their up-coming 2 home games … or, face the very real possibility of amassing another extended losing streak [i.e. a 5-gamer this time] and an inauspicious W-L Record [10-18?].

What Toronto has done so far this season is no way to go about convincing Chris Bosh that he should actually re-sign with the Raptors, as one of the premier unrestricted free agents in 2010.

To paraphrase something once said by Yogi Berra, noted philosopher :-) :

“Sometimes, it really does get late early out there … in the process of pursuing one’s own UFA.”

The Raptors would do well to not forget that Life Truism this season. 

Raptors improvement relative to other teams in division & conference

Monday, September 14th, 2009

The 5 teams in the Atlantic Division finished in the following order last season:

1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756, 2nd East, Lost 2nd Round 
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500, 6th East, Lost 1st Round  
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415, 3rd East, Missed Playoffs
4. Toronto Raptors, 33-49/.402, 13th East, Missed Playoffs
5. New York Knicks, 32-50/.390, 14th East, Missed Playoffs

At this point in the off season, the teams have made the following player personnel changes:

BOSTON CELTICS
Significant Losses
1. Leon Powe [PF], UFA
2. Mikki Moore [PF-C], UFA
3. Stephon Marbury [PG]
4. Gabe Pruitt [PG-OG]

Significant Adds
1. Lester Hudson/2nd Round Draft Pick [No. 58, overall]
2. Rasheed Wallace, UFA
3. Sheldon Williams, UFA
4. Marquis Daniels, UFA

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Significant Losses
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. Andre Miller [PG], UFA
3. Theo Ratliff [PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Elton Brand [PF], returns from injury
2. Jason Smith [PF-C], returns from injury
3. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
4. Jrue Holiday [PG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 19, overall]  
5. Rodney Carney [SF], UFA

NEW JERSEY NETS
Significant Losses
1. Vince Carter [SF-OG], trade
2. Ryan Anderson [PF], trade

Significant Adds
1. Terrence Williams [SF-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 11, overall]
2. Courtney Lee [OG], trade
3. Rafer Alston [PG], trade
4. Tony Battie [PF-C], trade

TORONTO RAPTORS
Significant Losses
1. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
2. Shawn Marion [PF-SF], UFA/Sign & trade
3. Kris Humphries [PF], trade
4. Nathan Jawai [PF-C], trade
5. Anthony Parker [OG-SF-PG], UFA
6. Joey Graham [SF], UFA
7. Roko Ukic [PG], trade
8. Carlos Delfino [SF-OG], trade

Significant Adds
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 9, overall]
3. Hedo Turkoglu [SF], Sign & trade
4. Antoine Wright [SF-OG], trade
5. Jarrett Jack [PG-OG], RFA
6. Marco Belinelli [OG-SF-PG], trade
7. Rasho Nesterovic [C-PF], UFA
8. Amir Johnson [PF], trade 

NEW YORK KNICKS
Significant Losses
1. Quentin Richardson [SF-OG], trade
2. Chris Wilcox, PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Danilo Gallinari [SF-PF], returns from injury
2. Jordan Hill [PF-C], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 8, overall]
3. Toney Douglas [PG-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 29, overall]
4. Darko Milicic [PF-C], trade
5. Sun Yue [PG], UFA

While several NBA observers seem to think the Raptors SHOULD be much improved this coming season, based on the wholesale changes made to their roster … this corner does not necessarily share that same opinion, when evaluated against the LOSSESS & ADDS of the other teams in their Division.

Q1. Have the Raptors improved, overall, from last season, relative to their competition?

A1. Maybe; maybe not … is the correct answer, at this point.

The Knicks and Nets are in re-building mode, and the Raptors SHOULD have been expected to finish this coming season in NO WORSE than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Celtics and, possibly, the 76ers … even if they would have done “nothing” substantive to improve their team this summer.

However, given that doing “nothing” was in fact the OPPOSITE of what the Raptors decided to do this off season … i.e. see above … it SHOULD now be EXPECTED that this supposedly improved team SHOULD finish NO WORSE than in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Celtics.

Once this expectation is established, what then becomes interesting is …

if the divisional standings eventually look something like this:

ATLANTIC
1 Boston
2 Toronto or Philadelphia
3 Philadelphia or Toronto
4 New York or New Jersey
5 New Jersey or New York

and the conference standings eventually look something like this:

SOUTHEAST
1 Orlando
2 Atlanta or Miami or Washington
3 Miami Atlanto or Washington
4 Washington or Atlanta or Miami
5 Charlotte

CENTRAL
1 Cleveland
2 Detroit or Chicago or Indiana
3 Chicago or Detroit or Indiana
4 Indiana or Detroit or Chicago
5 Milwaukee

and the playoff race eventually looks something like this:

Eastern Conference
1-2-3 Orlando – High End, Southeast
1-2-3 Cleveland – High End, Central
1-2-3 Boston – High End, Atlantic

4-5-6 Atlanta – Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Miami – Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Washington – Upper Middle, Southeast

7-8-9-10-11-12 Detroit – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Chicago – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Indiana – Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Toronto – Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Philadelphia – Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Charlotte – Low End, Southwest

12-13-14-15 Milwaukee – Low End, Central
12-13-14-15 New York – Low End, Atlantic
12-13-14-15 New Jersey – Low End, Atlantic

indicating, perhaps, that the relative strength of each division may be shifting this season:

#1. Southeast
#2. Central
#3. Atlantic 

IF a scenario like this is eventually what plays out this season, then, how much will the Raptors really have improved this summer, relative to the other teams in their Division and the Eastern Conference, as a whole?

Initial thoughts on the Raptors talent base compared with the previous 3 seasons

Monday, August 24th, 2009

Matching-up the Raptors’ current roster with the end-of-season version for the 2008-2009 campaign, on a position-by-position basis, looks like this:

#

Pos

2008-2009

33-49/.402

Adv

2009-2010

?/?

Assessment

 

1

PG

Calderon

à

Calderon

Injury-free = improved.

2

OG

Parker

ß

DeRozan

Solid vet > NCAA rookie.

3

SF

Marion

ß

Turkoglu

Better overall player.

4

PF

Bosh

=

Bosh

Perennial All-Star.

5

C

Bargnani

=

Bargnani

Same. *Wildcard*.

 

6

PG

Ukic

à

Jack

Stable. Better shooter.

7

OG

Kapono

à

Belinelli

Better scorer. Versatile.

8

SF

Graham

=

Wright

Medium-grade players.

9

PF

M-Bonsu

=

Evans

Energetic rebounder.

10

C

O’Bryant

à

Nesterovic

Significant upgrade.

 

11

PG

Banks

=

Banks

Same.

12

OG

Douby

=

Douby

Same.

13

PF

Jawai

=

Weems [SF]

Different not better.

14

PF

Humphries

=

Johnson

Different. Similar.

15

C

Voskuhl

=

O’Bryant

Will to improve?

SUMMARY:

- 2 players better from 2008-2009 [Darkest shade]
- 4 players better from 2009-2010 [Darker shade]

- 10 players relatively equal

- EDGE to 2009-2010

While it’s relatively easy to see how other NBA observers can feel that the Raptors have increased their Perceived Talent Level [PTL] by a substantial amount this off season, when a comparative eye is then cast further backwards, to the previous year [2007-2008]:

#

Pos

2007-2008

41-41/.500

Adv

2009-2010

?/?

Assessment

 

1

PG

Ford

à

Calderon

Injury-free = improved.

2

OG

Parker

ß

DeRozan

Solid vet > Rookie.

3

SF

Moon

à

Turkoglu

More consistent.

4

PF

Bosh

=

Bosh

Perennial All-Star.

5

C

Bargnani

=

Bargnani

Same. *Wildcard*.

 

6

PG

Calderon

=

Jack

Similar value; diff skills.

7

OG

Delfino

=

Belinelli

Similar value; diff skills.

8

SF

Kapono

=

Wright

Similar value; diff skills.

9

PF

Humphries

=

Evans

Energetic rebounder.

10

C

Nesterovic

=

Nesterovic

Same; older now.

 

11

PG

Martin

ß

Banks

Solid vet. Accepted role.

12

OG

Dixon

=

Douby

Similar value; diff skills.

13

SF

Johnson-L

=

Weems

Low grade players.

14

PF

Baston

à

Johnson-A

Upside. Under-used.

15

C

Brezec

=

O’Bryant

Will to improve?

SUMMARY:

- 2 players better from 2007-2008 [Darkest shade]
- 3 players better from 2009-2010 [Darker shade]

- 10 players relatively equal

- SLIGHT EDGE to 2009-2010

and, ultimately, to the watershed 2006-2007 season: 

#

Pos

2006-2007

47-35/.573

Adv

2009-2010

?/?

Assessment

 

1

PG

Ford

=

Calderon

Similar value, diff skills.

2

OG

Parker

ß

DeRozan

Euro star > Experience.

3

SF

Peterson

à

Turkoglu

More consistent player.

4

PF

Garbajosa

=

Bosh

Versatile Euro player.

5

C

Bosh

ß

Bargnani

All-Star > highly erratic.

 

6

PG

Calderon

=

Jack

Similar value; diff skills.

7

OG

Graham

à

Belinelli

More value; better skills.

8

SF

Bargnani

ß

Wright

More value; better skills.

9

PF

Humphries

=

Evans

Energetic rebounder.

10

C

Nesterovic

=

Nesterovic

Same. Older now.

 

11

PG

Martin

ß

Banks

Solid vet. Accepted role.

12

OG

Dixon

=

Douby

Similar value; diff skills.

13

SF

Jackson

=

Weems 

Low grade players.

14

PF

Sow

à

Johnson-A

Upside. Under-used.

15

C

Slokar

=

O’Bryant

Different not better.

SUMMARY:

- 4 players better from 2006-2007 [Darkest shade]
- 3 players better from 2008-2009 [Darker shade]

- 8 players relatively equal

- SLIGHT EDGE to 2006-2007

the picture produced is somewhat different.

Reviewing ALL 3 of these comparisons, at-once, it would be more accurate to say that the current roster has:

MORE talent than the 2008-2009 version [33 wins];

* SLIGHTLY MORE talent than the 2007-2008 version [41 wins]; and,

* SLIGHTLY LESS talent than the 2006-2007 version [47 wins].

Lion & Lemon faces for Raptors & Bucks

Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

Courtesy of Matt Moore …

Offseason Lemon Face/Lion Face: Raptors/Bucks
re: Toronto
You have to wonder what Colangelo has targeted as the ceiling for this team. He can’t realistically think this team is going to win a championship. It needs to make the playoffs, that much is clear from salary alone. With Orlando, Cleveland, and Boston at the apex, does he believe they can get the 4 seed? Hope to make a push in the semis, and possibly get lucky with playing a banged up team that sparks them to the Finals (the Orlando plan)? Or is the goal just to contend, to be relevant, to be fun? Colangelo was part of something special in Phoenix by thinking outside the box and creating something new. Maybe this multi-positional rubix cube he’s created is his next masterpiece that changes things without ever bearing fruit.

re: Milwaukee
The main reason they get a Lemon Face is that they seem to be going in two directions. Jennings is the future, but Bogut is the franchise, but Redd is the leader, but we’re building for the future, but Luke Ridnour has a chokehold on our point guard spot but Roko Ukic could be great with some time but we want to win now but we want to win a championship but we’re also filling in holes like with Warrick.

When three birds of a different feather flock together, it’s a poor omen for the Raptors

Tuesday, July 14th, 2009

An accurate understanding of what exactly is going on these days in Raptorville is not arrived at easily for many of the team’s rabid fans who are active participants in the on-line hoops community. Amidst the general euphoria that has taken hold in the aftermath of last week’s seemingly stunning 4-team trade extravaganza with Dallas, Orlando and Memphis … which netted the Raptors:

* Hedo Turkoglu [F, Orlando, UFA]
* Antoine Wright [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season]
* Devean George [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season], and
* Preserved their right to use the Mid Level Exception [MLE], the Low Level Exception [LLE], and exercise their [Larry] Bird Rights towards resigning their own Unrestricted Free Agents [UFA]

at the expense of:

* Shawn Marion [Sign & Trade with Orlando, UFA]
* Kris Humphries [trade with Dallas; injured much of last season]
* Nathan Jawai [trade with Dallas; disabled much of last season]
* 2nd Round Draft Pick/2016 [trade with Dallas]
* Cash Considerations [trade with Dallas] 

The stark reality of this team’s current situation is perhaps best reflected in the bright lights of the following 5 observations:

PART ONE
The post-trade outlook for the Raptors which was first put together by “Dave” [nbaroundtable, Thu July 9], extolling the possible virtues:

Where do the Raptors go from here?

PART TWO
The specific comment which “Dave” then left in a different thread on his blog, later that same afternoon, indicating his actual thoughts on their chances to succeed with their current roster configuration:

———-

Four team trade: Shawn Marion to Dallas
2011/12

This is the Raptors fail safe option. When they fail, and they will fail, they need to have this option open to them and then use this option.

This means no extra contracts that last beyond two years. I will dislike pretty much any contract that goes beyond two seasons. As long as the contract is than two seasons, spending that money doesn’t bother me in the slightest.

Dead End

The Raptors are going nowhere, and they need a miracle to happen for this plan to have any chance of working out. The Raptors are going to run into [sic] dead end.

Now, it’s time just to sit back and let things play out. Things will not improve until Colangelo figures out Bargnani isn’t a cornerstone of this franchise … until that happens, there’s nothing else that can be done to put the Raptors on the right road.

The Raptors can’t get out of the corner that they’ve boxed themselves into, until Bargnani is moved on. Any aspirations for a title are on hold until this happens.

———-  

PART THREE
The specific comment which was made on this blog [July 11, 11:35 AM], by yours truly, that addressed the supposed “Qualitative Improvement” of the Raptors current roster pieces in comparison with last season’s end-of-year squad, pertaining to the question of:

———-

Which team made out best from 4-team trade?
IMO, the Raptors have made upgrades in certain areas thus far but it would be a mistake in judgment to assess this improvement as being “a lot better“, just yet:

No BEFORE ADV AFTER

1 Calderon = Calderon
2 Parker <– Wright … AP is significantly better
3 Marion = Turkoglu … Turkoglu is NOT significantly better
4 Bosh = Bosh
5 Bargnani = Bargnani
—————————-
6 Ukic = Ukic
7 Kapono –> DeRozan * … cyclical due to draft
8 Graham = George … Devean is NOT significantly better
9 Humphries = Evans … Reggie is NOT significantly better
10 O’Bryant –> Nesterovic … Rasho is much better!
—————————-
11 Douby = Delfino … is different but NOT much better
12 Mensah-Bonsu = Mensah-Bonsu
—————————-
13 Banks = Banks
14 Jawai ? Barnes … jury still out on Nathan
15 Voskuhl = O’Bryant

Those who are looking at these changes in an excessively positive light are the ones looking through rose-coloured spectacles.

———-

PART FOUR
The Shifting Player Personnel Chart that was constructed by yours truly yesterday:

 

TORONTO RAPTORS ROSTERS

2007-2008 vs 2008-2009 vs 2009-2010

 

 

No

 

2007-2008

END

2008-2009

 

2009-2010

START

Mitchell

Triano

1

Triano

2

1

2

3

4

5

Ford

Parker

Delfino

Moon

Bosh

Calderon

Parker

Moon

Bosh

O’Neal T

Calderon

Parker

Moon

Bosh

O’Neal

Calderon

Parker U

Marion T, U

Bosh

Bargnani

Calderon

Wright T, E

Turkoglu T

Bosh

Bargnani

6

7

8

9

10

Calderon

Kapono

Graham

Humphries

Bargnani

Solomon U

Kapono

Graham

Humphries
Bargnani

Solomon

Kapono

Graham

Humphries
Bargnani

Ukic

Kapono

Graham U

Humphries X

O’Bryant T

Jack R *

DeRozan Y1

George T, E

Evans T

Nesterovic U *

11

12

Dixon

Nesterovic

Ukic Y1

Adams U

Ukic

Adams

Douby T, U

Voskuhl U

Delfino R *
O’Bryant

13

14

15

Martin

Brezec

Baston

Jawai Y1

Jawai

Banks T

M-Bonsu U

Jawai

Banks

M-Bonsu R *
Ukic

16

Garbajosa @

 

 

Delfino R @

Douby

W/L

41-41/.500

8-9/.471

13-25/.342

12-15/.444

?/?

Legend:

X – Injured; Y1 – Rookie; R – Restricted Free Agent; U – Unrestricted Free Agent; @ – Not on active roster; W/L – Won-Lost record; Mitchell – Up to Dec 3, 2008; Triano1 – Before Shawn Marion trade; Triano2 – After Shawn Marion trade; T – Acquired via trade; E – Expiring contract this coming season; * – Expected to sign soon as Free Agent

 

which shows the drastic player changes that have happened with the Raptors for each of the past two seasons. 

PART FIVE
The glaring RED ALERT that was issued on Sunday by David Berri [i.e. noted economist, NBA "sage & soothsayer", author of The Wages of Wins Journal]:

Dashing Hope in Toronto
Not a Pretty Picture in Toronto

When we put the whole picture together, it appears the Raptors will employ the following starting line-up in 2009-10: Calderon (PG), Wright and/or DeRozan (SG), Turkoglu (SF), Bosh (PF), Bargnani [C].  Last season the NBA veterans in this line-up combined to produce fewer than 30 wins. So unless these players improve dramatically, or the team finds very productive players off the bench, it’s hard to see how this team improves dramatically.  And that’s true even if Delfino returns to Toronto (although if Evans returns to what we saw in the past there might be some hope this team can get past 40 wins).

All of this means that

  1. Turkoglu will be seeing much more money in 2009-10, but probably far fewer wins.
  2. Bargnani will also see much more money, but it seems unlikely he is ever going to produce many wins.
  3. Bosh will see even more money after this next season, but if the Raptors don’t approach 45 or 50 wins (which seems likely) then it seems unlikely that the money Bosh is paid in the future is going to be paid by the Raptors.
  4. So it looks likely the Raptors record performance in 2007-08 will stand for awhile.  In other words, if Bosh departs this team in 2010, then rebuilding will probably continue beyond 2009-10.
  5. And this means — assuming the Raptors don’t make any major change to this team — the fans of the Raptors will keep paying money to see a team that’s not contending for a title.

———-

Experience says that when disparate individuals like:

1. “Dave” [nbaroundtable] … who combines statistics with Basketball Acumen;

2. khandor [that's me :-) ] … who relies primarily on Basketball Acumen;

and,

3. David Berri … who relies heavily on a statistical approach to the analysis of on-court production for players in the NBA;

actually arrive at a similar conclusion … which is essentially opposed to the GENERAL CONSENSUS that exists in Raptorville today … it portends of difficult times ahead for this team in the coming season.

In the best interests of the franchise, let’s hope that all three of these “stray birds” are eventually proven to be wrong in their assessment of the team. 

 

What the 4-team trade was REALLY about from the Raptors’ perspective

Saturday, July 11th, 2009

For Raptors fans who think that the recent 4-team trade was in fact based on the commitment of MLSE to do what’s necessary to win a League Championship, one day in the not-too-distant future:

Colangelo still tinkering with Raptors roster
“You have to find a way to get the right pieces in this year and roll forward and keep below that luxury tax level,” Colangelo said. “It’s going to get tighter and it’s something to contend with.”

———-

you SHOULD seriously re-evaluate that specific line of thinking.

When you hear Bryan Colangelo speak next of DOING WHAT’S NECESSARY TO ACCOMPLISH THAT SPECIFIC GOAL, down-the-road, please feel free to notify yours truly [perhaps, via email] right away! ;)

The Raptors’ GM … and chief representative of MLSE, on the hoops side of the operation … talks, repeatedly, about being “committed to building a winning team” BUT he NEVER EVER takes the NEXT STEP and mentions something about,

“Doing what’s necessary to actually have a legitimate shot at winning the League Championship.”

What’s the reason for this?

Does he actually know what this involves, in today’s NBA, regarding such things as: i. Basketball Philosophy, ii. Coaching Philosophy, iii. Player Personnel, and iv. The Financial Commitment Required [etc.]?

The teams that are “honestly” trying to WIN the Championship in the NBA, these days, know full well that in order to give themselves a “real” chance at accomplishing this goal, they are going to have to accept the fact that they will be paying The Luxury Tax … which is really Nothing More than the “current toll fare” … in return for The Right to be able to drive on that specific Super-Highway.

The highest level of competition possible is where the Big Boyz play and that’s the going freight just to ante into the game.

The San Antonio Spurs … located in a small-to-mid sized market, but with a 1st-class ownership group [expertly led by Peter Holt] and a Top Notch GM/Head Coach tandem  [i.e. RC Buford & Gregg Popovich] … are a prime example of a team that is now fully aware of this and, therefore, chose to act accordingly this off season … i.e. as you can plainly see from their recent decisions to:

* Retain their best 3 players [i.e. Time Duncan, Manu Ginobili & Tony Parker]

* Retain a veteran like Michael Finley

* Select 3 new players in the 2009 NBA Draft [i.e. DeJuan Blair, No. 37, Jack McClinton, No. 51, and Nando De Colo, No. 53] who are ready to compete right away

* Trade for Richard Jefferson [i.e. another high end player], and

* Sign Antonio McDyess [UFA]

While the Toronto Raptors, on the other hand … chose to go a different route, replete with a Magician’s Wand & Cloak, a rabbit, a head stand, a glass of bottled water, a still dry shirt – with an exceedingly high collar - and an accompanying 3-piece band of partners in crime.

There are just a few teams in this League that are legitimately trying to WIN It All [i.e. Category One] …

then, there’s Everybody Else [i.e. who can be further sub-divided into two additional specific Categories: Two. Those trying to field a highly "competitive" team, in the process of turning a profit, annually; and, Three. Those simply trying to survive in hopes of maybe turning a profit].

DO NOT MAKE THE MISTAKE OF THINKING THAT WHAT THE RAPTORS DID WITH THEIR PARTICIPATION IN THIS 4-TEAM TRADE WAS DESIGNED TO SHIFT THEM FROM CATEGORY TWO INTO CATEGORY ONE.

It was not; not by a long shot.

————-

Related:

Which franchise made out best from the 4-team trade?

Which franchise made out best from 4 team trade?

Friday, July 10th, 2009

Prior to the recent transaction between the Raptors [Bryan Colangelo], Mavericks [Donnie Nelson], Magic [Otis Smith & Dave Twardzik] and Grizzlies [Chris Wallace], this is what each of those team’s rosters looked like:

 

ROSTERS BEFORE 4-TEAM TRADE

 

No

RAPTORS

MAVERICKS

MAGIC

GRIZZLIES

1

2

3

4

5

Calderon

Parker–UFA

Marion–UFA

Bosh

Bargnani

Kidd

Wright

Howard

Nowitzki

Dampier

Nelson

Carter

Turkoglu–UFA

Lewis

Howard

Conley

Mayo

Gay

Warrick–RFA

Gasol

6

7

8

9

10

Ukic

Douby
DeRozan–R

Evans

O’Bryant

Barea

Terry

George

Bass–UFA

Hollins–RFA

Johnson

Redick

Pietrus

Anderson

Gortat–RFA

Jaric

Richardson

Young–R

Arthur

Thabeet–R

11

12

Banks

Humphries

Carroll

Singleton–UFA

Richardson–RFA

Miles

Haddadi

13

14

15

16

17

Delfino–RFA

Jawai

M-Bonsu–RFA

Beaubois–R

Ross

Williams

Nivins–R

Stackhouse

 

Carroll–R

 

TPE

Adams $0.7 M

Kapono $1.1 M

Moon $0.7 M

Solomon $0.7 M

 

Dooling $2.0 M

Wilks $0.8 M

 

 

Coming out the other side, today, this is what they look like now, respectively:

 

 

ROSTERS AFTER 4-TEAM TRADE

 

No

RAPTORS

MAVERICKS

MAGIC

GRIZZLIES

1

2

3

4

5

Calderon

Wright

Turkoglu

Bosh

Bargnani

Kidd

Howard

Marion

Nowitzki

Dampier

Nelson

Carter

Pietrus

Lewis

Howard

Conley

Mayo

Gay

Warrick–RFA

Gasol

6

7

8

9

10

Ukic

DeRozan–R

George

Evans

O’Bryant

Barea

Terry

Ross

Bass–UFA

Hollins–RFA

Johnson

Redick

Richardson–RFA

Anderson

Gortat–RFA

Jaric

Richardson

Young–R

Arthur

Thabeet–R

11

12

Banks

Delfino–RFA

Carroll

Singleton–UFA

 

Miles

Haddadi

13

14

15

M-Bonsu–RFA

 

Beaubois–R

Williams

Humphries

 

Carroll–R

16

17

 

Nivins–R

Jawai

 

 

TPE

Adams $0.7 M

Kapono $1.1 M

Moon $0.7 M

Solomon $0.7 M

 

Dooling $2.0 M

Wilks $0.8 M
Turkoglu $7.0 M

 

DP

 

 

 

2nd Rounder,

Tor/2016

CC

 

 

 

From Dallas

From Toronto


Legend:
UFA – Unrestricted Free Agent; RFA – Restricted Free Agent; R – Rookie Player; TPE – Traded Player Exception; DP – Draft Pick; CC - Cash Considerations

 

—————————————————

Which franchise made out best of all from the recent 4-team trade?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

—————————————————

The Perspective From This Corner

 

IMPROVEMENT TO ROSTER SITUATION

 

TEAM

MINUS

ADD

NET GAIN

MAVERICKS

Wright

George

Stackhouse

Marion

Buckner

Humphries

Jawai

Substantial improvement. i.e. Marion is the best overall player in the deal [+]. Period. Humphries is a serviceable Big [+]. Jawai is a reserve [0]. Buckner will be cut. Stackhouse was inactive. George was a reserve. Wright was a pseudo-Starter only.

RESULT: ++ Gain

MAGIC

Turkoglu

TPE $7.0-to-10.0 M

Zero immediate improvement, i.e. Add Carter; Lose Turkoglu [0] … BUT with a gigantic CAVEAT. Now have $7.0-to-10.0 M worth of TPE’s [+], should they be in contention for a championship this coming season, in an effort to push them over the final hurdle. A Commitment To Winning It All.

RESULT: 0|+ Gain

RAPTORS

Parker

Marion

Humphries

Jawai

Wright

Turkoglu

George

Marginal improvement, only. i.e. Parker is a better player than Wright [-]. Turkoglu is a better clutch player than Marion [+], but Marion is a better player overall and a lot more athletic [-]. George and Humphries are even.

Turkoglu commitment provides stability at #3/SF [+]

RESULT: >> 0 Gain

GRIZZLIES

Buckner

CC [?]

Almost Zero improvement. CC plus a 2nd Round Draft Pick way, way off in the distance.

RESULT: > 0 Gain

 

The fact is, however, that the Cleveland Cavaliers [Danny Ferry] MAY have benefitted most of all from this specific transaction, as they subsequently gained unfettered access to Anthony Parker, the exact sort of complementary wing player they were searching for … to augment LeBron James & Co., in an effort to win their 1st NBA Championship. 

Your feedback is welcome in the “Comments” section. :-)

Raptors’ best possible line-up, as of June 30, 2009

Tuesday, June 30th, 2009

While some might enjoy the endless speculation about which free agents might be interested in what teams, and vice versa, prior to July 1 [the start date to the annual Free Agency feeding frenzy in the NBA], yours truly prefers to take a different approach.

At 12:01 AM of the big “first day”, here is what this corner sees as the most effective 12-man line-up for the Raptors, if the 2009-2010 regualar season was to begin play today:

Option One – Conventional NBA Line-up

STARTERS
1 Jose Calderon [guaranteed contract]
Anthony Parker [unrestricted]
Shawn Marion [unrestricted]
4 Chris Bosh [guaranteed contract]
5 Andrea Bargnani [guaranteed contract]

KEY SUBS
6 Roko Ukic [guaranteed contract]
7 DeMar DeRozan [guaranteed contract] *
8 Carlos Delfino [qualifying offer extended]
9 Reggie Evans [guaranteed contract]

EXTRAS
10 Marcus Banks [guaranteed contract]
11 Quincy Douby [guaranteed contract]
12 Pops Mensah-Bonsu [qualifying offer extended]
13 Kris Humphries [guaranteed contract]
14 Nathan Jawai [guaranteed contract]
15 Patrick O’Bryant [guaranteed contract]

Option Two – khandor’s Preferred Line-up 

STARTERS
1 Jose Calderon [guaranteed contract]
Anthony Parker [unrestricted]
Carlos Delfino [qualifying offer extended]
4 Marion [unrestricted]
5 Bosh [guaranteed contract]

KEY SUBS
6 Roko Ukic [guaranteed contract]
7 DeMar DeRozan [guaranteed contract] *
8 Reggie Evans [guaranteed contract]
9 Andrea Bargnani [guaranteed contract] *

EXTRAS
10 Marcus Banks [guaranteed contract]
11 Quincy Douby [guaranteed contract]
12 Pops Mensah-Bonsu [qualifying offer extended]
13 Kris Humphries [guaranteed contract]
14 Nathan Jawai [guaranteed contract]
15 Patrick O’Bryant [guaranteed contract]

[Legend: * - Scorer off the bench]

Factors to be considered, re: Option Two

No. 9 [overall] 1st Round Draft Picks that come into the NBA after playing only 1 season of NCAA D1 level basketball have no business as a Starting Player in the NBA.

Gradually introduce DeMar DeRozan to the rigors of the NBA game.

Shawn Marion is a natural #4/PF in the NBA.

Chris Bosh is a natural #5/Center in the NBA.

By bringing DeRozan and Bargnani off the bench, it provides the Raptors with a more balanced line-up overall and scoring prowess for their 2nd Unit.

Surrounding Bosh with four players like Calderon, Parker, Delfino, and Marion would allow the Raptors to play small [i.e. with multiple "shooters" on the floor], while emphasizing Pick & Roll/Pop basketball with CB4 and a multi-pronged “Drive & Kick” game.

Keep Bosh from becoming fatigued and/or incurring serious injuries by having him split time on the floor with Bargnani at the #5/C position [i.e. 28 MPG for Bosh; 20 MPG for Bargnani].

Limit Bosh & Bargnani’s individual defensive assignments to the opponent’s Best Big Man, leaving Marion to defend against their top #4/PF.

Limit the opportunities for Bargnani [Back-up Center] to be called for too many Personal Fouls.

Provide maximum Rebounding opportunities for Reggie Evans [Back-up PF].

————

Now … it is going to be most interesting to see what the Raptors actual line-up will look like in the fall when the team breaks from Jay Triano’s first full training camp, as their new permanent head coach, with Bryan Colangelo set to start his 4th full year as their GM.