khandor’s sports blog

It’s been said in this space on several occasions before …

Kelly Dwyer is a talented writer, who just happens to dabble in The Realm of Hoops, while being a basketball fan[-atic] but, from time-to-time, even he is sometimes prone to missing the mark completely, when it comes to analyzing with accuracy what specifically happened in a NBA game that permanently turned the tide in one team’s favour or the other:

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Detroit 93, Milwaukee 81

Another run from the Bucks where they just fell off the face of the earth, offensively. Nine points in the first quarter, and in a contest this slow, that was certain death as Detroit’s offense actually showed up.

Milwaukee rebounded with 29 in the second period, but this thing was more or less over by then. This was an 82-possession game, so that 12-point disparity needs to be reflected on properly. This was a blowout.

18 points on 12 shot attempts for Ben Gordon(notes) in the win.

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In the opinion of yours truly …

This game was far from being a BLOW-OUT.

Recap; Boxscore; and, Full Play-By-Play

When you take a closer look at the play-by-play, this is what you should be able to see:

This was a 2 point game when the 4th quarter began, i.e. Det 64, MIL 62, and the principal reason Milwaukee lost is because Scott Skiles failed to use his substitutes to their best advantage against a team with specific strengths and weaknesses like Detroit.

i.e. When he made the decision to “go small” up-front, resting Andrew Bogut, and going with the combination of Hakim Warrick/PF and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute/C against the Pistons tandem of Jonas Jerebko/PF and Jason Maxiell/C … during which time Detroit then increased its lead from 4 to 6 points 

i.e. When he then decided to “go small” at the guard spots, as well, matching-up the threesome of Brandon Jennings/PG, Charlie Bell/OG and Carlos Delfino/SF against Rodney Stuckey/PG, Ben Gordon/OG and Tayshaun Prince/SF, when the Pistons increased their size at the PG and SF positions [at the 7:08 mark] … during which time Detroit pushed its lead from 6 to 8 points [before Skiles responded by returning Bogut/C to the game and shifting Mbah A Moute back to PF].

i.e. When he never returned to the 5-Man Units which had been successful for Milwaukee during the earlier stages of the game:

[for example]

Ridnour + Bell + Stackhouse + Warrick + Ilyasova
Jennings + Bell + Stackhouse + Mbah A Moute + Bogut
Jennings + Bell + Delfino + Mbah A Moute + Bogut
Ridnour + Bell + Delfino + Mbah A Moute + Bogut
Ridnour + Bell + Delfino + Ilyasova + Bogut

at any time during the 4th quarter and, instead, chose to use the following combinations of players:

Ridnour + Stackhouse + Delfino + Warrick + Bogut
Jennings + Stackhouse + Delfino + Warrick + Mbah A Moute
Jennings + Bell + Delfino + Warrick + Mbah A Moute
Jennings + Bell + Delfino + Mbah A Moute + Bogut
Jennings + Bell + Delfino + Mbah A Moute + Ilyasova.  

The overall low number of possessions in this game was irrelevant to the eventual outcome.

The fact is …

1. The Bucks’ offense just didn’t “fall off the face of the earth” on its own in the 4th quarter, last night, and neither did the Pistons’ offense just happen to ”show up, all of sudden,” on its own accord.

2. In both cases, they were given a “healthy assist” by the specific personnel decisons which were made in that quarter by the Bucks’ head coach.

3. Congratulations to John Kuester for using his own personnel relatively well last night, in the 4th quarter, given what Coach Skiles was doing in return.

For the benefit of both Raptors and Bucks fans:

Enjoy! … what should prove to be a very entertaining and close game.

The word “benchmark” has the following definition:

bench·mark (bnchmärk)

As was mentioned yesterday, last night’s contest between Toronto and Milwaukee should have been viewed by each team as a pivotal game, and an early season barometer for where their respective franchise stands in relation to the other middle-of-the-pack squads in the Eastern Conference.

Toronto Raptors 95
MILWAUKEE BUCKS 117
Complete Game Summary

By no means should the Bucks be viewed as an ideal, or even an up-and-coming, franchise in the NBA, at this point in time. Milwaukee has:

- a talented, young Starting-calibre PG
- a defensively stout young Starting-calibre SF-PF 
- an all-around solid Starting-calibre C

who they can build around moving forward …

- a solid, experienced, head coach

who they can build with moving forward … and,

- a dead-weight former “franchise player”

who is no longer a major part of their team with a fairly hefty contract that is due to expire in just 2 years

- a slew of good-but-still-far-from-being-very-good back-up players on their roster

who they can use to fill in the gaps, while hoping to field a highly competitive team, on an annual basis …

and, then, prescious little more than that.

Yet, last night, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, after losing 8 of their previous 9 games … they were still able to dismantle the Raptors on the strength of [a] Brandon Jennings first-half scoring exploits, [b] solid team defense, and [c] individual offensive contributions from a host of different back-up players [e.g. Ersan Ilyasova , 17 pts; Roko Ukic, 17 pts; Carlos Delfino, 14 pts; Luke Ridnour, 15 pts].

Raptors fans who thought that their team’s recent 3-game winning streak was an authentic indication of a “righted ship”, heading toward the upper-middle region of the conference standings, sometime soon, were simply being delusional, once again. 

The road victory over Washington [7-12/.368, 10th/EC] was an overtime decision that could have gone either way at the end of regulation and at the final buzzer when Gilbert Arenas inexplicably missed an open lay-up.

The road victory over Chicago [7-13/.350, 11th/EC] was a relatively meaningless encounter against an opponent that is currently in free-fall … coping with [I] debilitating injuries to 2 key rotation players, both of whom are solid defender/rebounders, at their respective positions, and [II] the loss of their leading scorer from last season [i.e. Ben Gordon, who was not retained, as an UFA, this past summer].

The home victory over Minnesota [3-19/.136; 15th/WC] was secured in the final 90 seconds, when a 3PT shot from Antoine Wright [3FG% = 30.2] found the bottom of the net to push the Raptors’ precarious lead from 2 to 5 points.

On the other hand, last night’s game against the Bucks was a different beast entirely.

The Bucks were looking ahead at their next 3 opponents … i.e. vs the Blazers, vs the Lakers and @ the Cavaliers … and not liking what they saw, at all.

The Bucks are a solid middle-of-the-pack team this season:

[Ratings as of Mon Dec 05, 2009]

In last night’s game, key [revealing?] stats included:

When an opponent converts 3.5% more of its Total Shot Value, creates 5 more Possessions and a Points per Possession differential of 0.168, it indicates that your team was out-classed in a number of different ways.  

1/4 of the way through the regular season schedule, what should now be a legit concern for the Raptors organization, and its fanbase, is what you see when you look at the following two charts; appraising [i] where these two teams were last night:

and, then, [ii] where it looks as though they might be headed in the immediate future:

When the 2009-2010 off-season arrives and Chris Bosh sits down to evaluate where his chances might be the best to effectively challenge for a future NBA championship, realistically, do you think that he is going to perceive the Toronto Raptors as the No. 1 place for him to accomplish this goal in the no-too-distant future?

A team which might even be considered as beneath the decidedly “average” Milwaukee Bucks on the authentic depth chart in the East this season?

The Raptors next 4 games are:

Fri Dec 11 vs Atlanta [QR = 30; QIR = 9]
Sun Dec 13 vs Houston [QR = 42; QIR = T-13]
Tue Dec 15 @ MIAMI [QR = 42; QIR = T-13]
Wed Dec 16 @ ORLANDO [QR = 17; QIR = 2]

Legend: QR – Quality Rating [PDR/Points Differential Rank + PAR/Points Allowed Rank + RDR/Rebounding Differential Rank]; QIR – Quality Index Ranking [#1-30]; as of Sun Dec 06.

When assessing the relative strength of these 4 opponents, it’s imperative that the Raptors [10-14] get their act together quickly, substantially improve their Team Defense, and win their up-coming 2 home games … or, face the very real possibility of amassing another extended losing streak [i.e. a 5-gamer this time] and an inauspicious W-L Record [10-18?].

What Toronto has done so far this season is no way to go about convincing Chris Bosh that he should actually re-sign with the Raptors, as one of the premier unrestricted free agents in 2010.

To paraphrase something once said by Yogi Berra, noted philosopher :

“Sometimes, it really does get late early out there … in the process of pursuing one’s own UFA.”

The Raptors would do well to not forget that Life Truism this season. 

The 5 teams in the Atlantic Division finished in the following order last season:

1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756, 2nd East, Lost 2nd Round 
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500, 6th East, Lost 1st Round  
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415, 3rd East, Missed Playoffs
4. Toronto Raptors, 33-49/.402, 13th East, Missed Playoffs
5. New York Knicks, 32-50/.390, 14th East, Missed Playoffs

At this point in the off season, the teams have made the following player personnel changes:

BOSTON CELTICS
Significant Losses
1. Leon Powe [PF], UFA
2. Mikki Moore [PF-C], UFA
3. Stephon Marbury [PG]
4. Gabe Pruitt [PG-OG]

Significant Adds
1. Lester Hudson/2nd Round Draft Pick [No. 58, overall]
2. Rasheed Wallace, UFA
3. Sheldon Williams, UFA
4. Marquis Daniels, UFA

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Significant Losses
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. Andre Miller [PG], UFA
3. Theo Ratliff [PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Elton Brand [PF], returns from injury
2. Jason Smith [PF-C], returns from injury
3. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
4. Jrue Holiday [PG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 19, overall]  
5. Rodney Carney [SF], UFA

NEW JERSEY NETS
Significant Losses
1. Vince Carter [SF-OG], trade
2. Ryan Anderson [PF], trade

Significant Adds
1. Terrence Williams [SF-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 11, overall]
2. Courtney Lee [OG], trade
3. Rafer Alston [PG], trade
4. Tony Battie [PF-C], trade

TORONTO RAPTORS
Significant Losses
1. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
2. Shawn Marion [PF-SF], UFA/Sign & trade
3. Kris Humphries [PF], trade
4. Nathan Jawai [PF-C], trade
5. Anthony Parker [OG-SF-PG], UFA
6. Joey Graham [SF], UFA
7. Roko Ukic [PG], trade
8. Carlos Delfino [SF-OG], trade

Significant Adds
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 9, overall]
3. Hedo Turkoglu [SF], Sign & trade
4. Antoine Wright [SF-OG], trade
5. Jarrett Jack [PG-OG], RFA
6. Marco Belinelli [OG-SF-PG], trade
7. Rasho Nesterovic [C-PF], UFA
8. Amir Johnson [PF], trade 

NEW YORK KNICKS
Significant Losses
1. Quentin Richardson [SF-OG], trade
2. Chris Wilcox, PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Danilo Gallinari [SF-PF], returns from injury
2. Jordan Hill [PF-C], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 8, overall]
3. Toney Douglas [PG-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 29, overall]
4. Darko Milicic [PF-C], trade
5. Sun Yue [PG], UFA

While several NBA observers seem to think the Raptors SHOULD be much improved this coming season, based on the wholesale changes made to their roster … this corner does not necessarily share that same opinion, when evaluated against the LOSSESS & ADDS of the other teams in their Division.

Q1. Have the Raptors improved, overall, from last season, relative to their competition?

A1. Maybe; maybe not … is the correct answer, at this point.

The Knicks and Nets are in re-building mode, and the Raptors SHOULD have been expected to finish this coming season in NO WORSE than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Celtics and, possibly, the 76ers … even if they would have done “nothing” substantive to improve their team this summer.

However, given that doing “nothing” was in fact the OPPOSITE of what the Raptors decided to do this off season … i.e. see above … it SHOULD now be EXPECTED that this supposedly improved team SHOULD finish NO WORSE than in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Celtics.

Once this expectation is established, what then becomes interesting is …

if the divisional standings eventually look something like this:

ATLANTIC
1 Boston
2 Toronto or Philadelphia
3 Philadelphia or Toronto
4 New York or New Jersey
5 New Jersey or New York

and the conference standings eventually look something like this:

SOUTHEAST
1 Orlando
2 Atlanta or Miami or Washington
3 Miami Atlanto or Washington
4 Washington or Atlanta or Miami
5 Charlotte

CENTRAL
1 Cleveland
2 Detroit or Chicago or Indiana
3 Chicago or Detroit or Indiana
4 Indiana or Detroit or Chicago
5 Milwaukee

and the playoff race eventually looks something like this:

Eastern Conference
1-2-3 Orlando - High End, Southeast
1-2-3 Cleveland - High End, Central
1-2-3 Boston - High End, Atlantic

4-5-6 Atlanta - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Miami - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Washington - Upper Middle, Southeast

7-8-9-10-11-12 Detroit - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Chicago - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Indiana - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Toronto - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Philadelphia - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Charlotte - Low End, Southwest

12-13-14-15 Milwaukee - Low End, Central
12-13-14-15 New York - Low End, Atlantic
12-13-14-15 New Jersey - Low End, Atlantic

indicating, perhaps, that the relative strength of each division may be shifting this season:

#1. Southeast
#2. Central
#3. Atlantic 

IF a scenario like this is eventually what plays out this season, then, how much will the Raptors really have improved this summer, relative to the other teams in their Division and the Eastern Conference, as a whole?

Matching-up the Raptors’ current roster with the end-of-season version for the 2008-2009 campaign, on a position-by-position basis, looks like this:

While it’s relatively easy to see how other NBA observers can feel that the Raptors have increased their Perceived Talent Level [PTL] by a substantial amount this off season, when a comparative eye is then cast further backwards, to the previous year [2007-2008]:

and, ultimately, to the watershed 2006-2007 season: