khandor’s sports blog

Neil Paine has now published an extremely interesting blog entry:

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Most Personnel Turnover Between Seasons

Here are the (non-expansion) clubs since 1965 who gave the smallest % of their minutes to players who had been on the roster the previous season:

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which indicates that, since 1965:

i. There have been 30 teams change at least 64.0% of their player roster from the previous season … based on Total Minutes Played;

ii. The “Average Win Total” for these teams is approximately 30 per season [i.e. .366];

and,

iii. Only 7 of these 30 teams [i.e. 23.3%] have finished with more than 41 wins [i.e. .500+] the following season.

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As you can tell from the comment [#3] submited by yours truly:

it would be very interesting to see what the results of Neil’s inquiry might yield, in terms of subsequent W-L records, if the parameters for examination were to be altered slightly, i.e. from a minimum change of 64.0% to >50.0%. 

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As far as the current edition of the Toronto Raptors is concerned …

These very simple stats might actually come into to play, if Bryan Colangelo [President/GM] is eventually able to trade Jose Calderon + 1 of either Reggie Evans, or Marcus Banks, this off season:

… which would, then, push next year’s team into the “>50.0% change” category.

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PLEASE NOTE: According to Neil’s research … of the 4 teams in the “>50.0% change” category from the 2009-2010 season - i.e. Toronto, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Detroit - only 1 finished the year with more than 41 wins [i.e. 1/4 = 25.0%]; while, the “Average Win Total” for these teams was a rather paltry 32 games [i.e. 128/328 = 39.0%].
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Last summer, the Toronto Raptors re-worked almost their entire roster, in an effort to qualify for the playoffs - and, to advance to, at least, the 2nd Round - by making the following personnel moves:

Although the team improved its win total from the previous season [i.e. 40 vs 33], it still failed to make the playoffs … due, primarily, to: [i] The 2nd half of the season injuries to their marquee player, Chris Bosh; and, [ii] The fact that the rest of their players - and coaches - were simply not good enough to win the required number of ’late season’ games, without their Captain in the line-up … after spending the middle portion of the schedule solidly in the playoff picture.

This summer, in addition to losing Chris Bosh, via unrestricted free agency, the Raptors have decided to re-vamp their roster, again, by making another series of sweeping personnel changes:

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Raptors acquire F Wright from Hornets

The 6-foot-8, 225-pound Wright averaged 8.1 points and 4.6 rebounds in 68 games with New Orleans last season.his move should help balance the roster and alleviate some of the redundancy we have with our guards,” Raptors president and general manager Bryan Colangelo said in a release Wednesday. “Julian is another young athletic player that will add depth at the small forward position.”

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As a result of these consecutive drastic ’summer make-overs’, the Raptors line-up now projects like this for next season:

… which means that the only remnants of the 2006-2007 team that went 47-35, to capture the Atlanta Division and earn a #3 seed in the EC playoffs, as well as the 2007-2008 version that finished in 6th place, are Jose Calderon [i.e. a high efficiency PG] and Andrea Bargnani [i.e. a low efficiency C]. 

There’s an old saying in life which goes something like this:

“Never make the error in judgment of mistaking activity for accomplishment.” - Anonymous

To these eyes, the Raptors are almost right back where they were, in 1997-1998, prior to the arrival of Vincent Lamar Carter.   

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PS. Don’t think for a minute that the Raptors have actually concluded their annual “summer make-over” … with the expiring contracts of Marcus Banks and Reggie Evans still in their pocket, plus a high efficiency PG - who they have already tried to trade on two occasions this off season - and, a 7-deep depth chart at the PG and OG positions which includes Calderon, Jack, Barbosa, Banks, DeRozan, Weems and Barbosa. Nosiree … instead of simply flying under the radar next season, in an effort to land a high quality player like Harrison Barnes, expect the Raptors to continue to try to upgrade their existing roster, in another futile push for a lower-tier spot in the playoffs.

When discussing the current plight of this team, all talk … eventually … comes back to the same specific topic - i.e. Andrea Bargnani [C, 7-0, 250], the No. 1 [overall] Selection from the 2006 NBA Draft - related to the arc of their annual W-L record, since the 2006-2007 season. 

The most harsh critics of the Raptors have suggested that the team’s fortunes have stagnated, since using the No. 1 [overall] Selection on a player who is not capable of excelling in at least 2 of the 3 distinct phases of the game - i.e. 1. Defense, 2. Rebounding, and 3. Offense; with performance in the first two being the most important for a Center in the NBA - and, ultimately, resulted in the departure of Chris Bosh … the team’s best player, by a wide margin … this summer.  

OTOH …

Those who extol the virtues of Raptors’ President/GM, Bryan Colangelo, point to the fact that there have been very few, if any, truly stalwart players come from the 2006 NBA Draft and that it was simply ‘poor luck’ for Toronto to have a player like Bargnani - who is an offensively talented Big Man - as the consensus No. 1 [overall] Selection that year.

Putting aside for the moment which of these two perspective is actually more accurate …

The upcoming season now presents the Raptors with an extremely situation, since a panel of so-called “NBA experts” has recently forecast that Toronto will … in all likelihood … should be expected to finish in last place in the Eastern Conference.

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Q1. What would a finish of this type actually mean for the Raptors franchise?

A1. It would mean … a legitimate shot at obtaining the No. 1 [overall] Draft Pick and the opportunity to select the type of authentic multi-dimensional cornerstone player every franchise needs to eventually propel itself into the upper echelon of the NBA.

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If/when you are able to put a dynamic wing player like …

with:

what you will end up with is a Core Group of players with enough first-class NBA talent to eventually become a legitimate contender for a Top 4 spot in the EC playoffs each year for the next decade …

provided that you are also willing to:

1. Wait until next summer to use the Traded Player Exception [TPE] gained from this summer’s trade with the Miami Heat [in exchange for Chris Bosh];

2. Are prepared to exceed the Salary Cap, down-the-road, to re-sign your own unrestricted free agents;

3. Are prepared to higher a head coach who is considered to be amongst the very best in the NBA and an authentic Transformational Leader;

and,

4. Actually prioritize The Winning of a League Championship for your pro sports organization.

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PS. In addition … the Raptors should also be prepared to trade Andrea Bargnani … let’s say, to the Minnesota Timberwolves, in exchange for their 2011, 1st Round Draft Pick … at any time a deal becomes available, to ensure that they go into next summer with 2 high Lottery Selections in their pocket.

PPS. The NBA has officially announced the individual team schedules for next season. As is, it looks as though breaking the 30-win barrier might be a real challenge for the Raptors, in an overall improved Eastern Conference.

According to an old saying, “There are many [different] ways to skin a cat.”

However truthful this may be … doubtless … each distinct method actually starts with thinking of that cat in the proper way, in the first place, i.e. “skin-less”.

Four plus years into the tenure of current President/GM, Bryan Colangelo, and there is still a significant segment of the team’s fanbase which is thinking about the continued development of the franchise in a way which is not going to result in major on-court success.

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The key to Raptor’s success still lies overseas

How can we ever win?

Star US players leaving in a hurry. Big name free agents looking elsewhere. It’s a never-ending cycle of American players disliking something different. Like different is a bad thing.

Four years ago, when Bryan Colangelo came to town, he went European. Today as we collectively lament over the loss of Chris Bosh, I understand why.

Going European may in fact be this team’s only chance to win.

Take the Blue Jays. Throughout the late 80s they cornered the Dominican and Puerto Rican markets. Built a roster full of international talent and then filled holes with key American players.

On the streets of the Dominican you wouldn’t see a Yankees hat or a Boston Red Sox hat. You’d see a Blue Jays hat. Or Tony Fernandez uniform.

Maybe the same can be done for the Raptors.

If the Raptors can continue to build relationships internationally it could reap rewards. Scout heavily overseas. Hold basketball camps in Europe. Promote Bargnani in Italy. Bring in a coach like Ettore Messina.

Bring in non-American players who are more akin to different cultures. Players who don’t care what anthem is played before every game. Who don’t scoff at seeing kilometers written on speed signs. Who are more cultured than your average American athlete.

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This is the specific comment which was left by yours truly, just a few minutes ago, at this otherwise first-rate Raptors blog:

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When I was a child, I talked like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man, I put childish ways behind me.
1 Corinthians 13:11

There has been considerable discussion the last several days, in different places on-line, about what has really hurt the Raptors franchise over the course of the last 4.5 seasons.

Exhibit A - NBA: Free-Agency Breakdown

Exhibit B - Turkoglu is still hurting the Raptors

If you look at yesterday’s blog entry, you will see the list of Major Personnel Moves which the Raptors have made during this specific time period.

These are the team’s records of achievement: 

Since 2006, Winter
2005-2006, 27-55, failed to make the playoffs
2006-2007, 47-35, made the playoffs/#3 Seed, Lost 1st Rd
2007-2008, 41-41, made the playoffs/#6 Seed, Lost 1st Rd
2008-2009, 33-49, failed to make the playoffs
2009-2010, 40-42, failed to make the playoffs
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Projecting Forward
2010-2011, sub .500?, fail to make the playoffs?
2011-2012, sub .500?, fail to make the playoffs?
etc.

When you look at these items closely, what you should begin to see is the illogical reasoning involved with asserting that top flight NBA players have been disinterested in playing for the Raptors … if/when Toronto has legitimately focused on putting together a championship-winning calibre team, which is not something that has actually been done since Steve Stavro [i.e. one-time principal owner] sold his controlling interest in Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment Ltd.

While a specific team’s fanbase might not fully understand what ‘the game’ is really all about - at least, at the highest levels of competition - elite level NBA players do not fit into this same category.

The fact is … elite level NBA players understand very well that:

* Bottom-line profitability is not what operating a successful franchise in this league is all about;

* Simply fielding a “competitive” [i.e. "winning"] team most seasons is not what operating a successful franchise in this league is all about;

* Trying one’s very best to gradually build a legitimate contending organization which is actually capable of competing for and eventually winning multiple NBA championships is precisely what operating a successful franchise in this league is all about;

and,

* Repeatedly changing the same basic furniture in one’s original ’starter home’ does not equate properly with making an authentic attempt at …

When a team in the NBA makes a series of highly questionable basketball-related personnel decisions … which, on the whole, fail to prioritize the development of a championship-winning organization … over a lengthy period of time, then, the best basketball players in the world, and their respective agents, take note … even if the fans of this specific team do not, because they are focused on the wrong things, e.g. if the best player in the history of their franchise may have “checked out, mentally,” in the 2nd half of last season, since this is what has been identified by [A] the team’s President/GM and [B] certain other no-expert basketball observers, as the chief reason for the current state of the franchise.

… according to Hedo Turkoglu, as The Summer of Discontent continues on, unabated, in Raptorville:

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Turkoglu takes a shot at Raptors, Colangelo

New Phoenix Suns forward Hedo Turkoglu took aim at his former team, the Toronto Raptors, and their general manager, Bryan Colangelo, this weekend.

“People have to realize something is wrong with that organization and nobody wants to go there any more,” he said in a phone interview from Turkey, where he is captaining the Turkish national team at the World Championships. “It’s not just the players who see this.”

Turkoglu’s remarks were sparked by Colangelo’s recent criticism of former Raptors teammate Chris Bosh. Colangelo accused Bosh of “checking out” last season while the Raptors were battling the Chicago Bulls for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot.

Bosh, an unrestricted free agent who left the Raptors earlier this month to join LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in Miami, missed six games after the All-Star break with an ankle injury.

“Despite limited swelling and any excessive damage on an MRI, he felt like he needed to sit,” Colangelo told Toronto station FAN 590. “I’m not even questioning Chris’ injury. I’m telling you he was cleared to play subject to tolerance on his part, and the tolerance just apparently wasn’t there and he chose not to play.

“Whether he was mentally checked out or just wasn’t quite into it down the stretch, he wasn’t the same guy. I think everybody saw that, but no one wanted to acknowledge it.”

Turkoglu insisted Bosh was a good teammate.

“It’s funny that people will talk behind your back,” Turkoglu said of Colangelo. “If he was feeling this way, why not have the guts to say it during the season? Why not say it to Chris? Now that Chris has left, it’s not nice to say those things.

“Chris has been a franchise player and he did a lot of good things for the Raptors,” Turkoglu added. “I don’t think Chris is the type of player to quit on his teammates.”

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Unfortunately, the ramifications of this error in judgment, by Bryan Colangelo … i.e. criticizing Chris Bosh’ effort, in the 2nd half of last season, after-the-fact … are going to be felt by this organization for a long time.

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PS. If you re-trace the gradual de-evolution of the Raptors franchise, over the last 4+ seasons, you should be able to develop a clear picture of the present situation, in Toronto.

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Bryan Colangelo made a serious mistake when he went public with comments which targeted the character of Chris Bosh and revealed the GM’s perception that the team’s former franchise player had allegedly “checked out” last season, sometime after returning from the mid-season all-star break … with his mind already set on not returning to Toronto, as an UFA this summer.

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Bosh says he always played hard

“I play this game as hard as I can every time I step on the court,” Bosh said. “On the back of my jersey it says ‘Bosh’ … The Boshes are hard workers. We have a lot of pride in what we do, in our jobs and in life.”

The Raptors fell from a playoff position at the All-Star break into ninth place in the Eastern Conference at the end of the season. Bosh and former Cleveland star LeBron James(notes) then joined Dwyane Wade(notes) in Miami as free agents this summer.

That ruffled feathers in Toronto and Cleveland, with Colangelo suggesting that the decision for the three stars to play together had been “brewing for a while.” He suggested the threesome started firming up their plans while representing the East at the NBA All-Star game.

Bosh claims he was still intent on getting the Raptors into the postseason.

“What’s so significant about the All-Star break? We were in the playoffs. And I wanted to play in the playoffs,” he said. “That’s all I thought about every summer.”

Bosh also clarified comments he made recently in the Miami Herald in which he called Toronto “different.” He said he didn’t mean that as an insult to the city.

“Toronto is different,” he said. “For one, it’s a different country. If you don’t know you’re in a different country when you land then something is wrong with your senses. That’s not to say that Toronto is not a great metropolitan city. It is a fantastic city.

“Different is not bad. I’m different. That doesn’t make me bad.”

Bosh also claimed his decision to leave Toronto was at the end of a long process and not something he had committed to before the offseason.

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When first asked by a visitor to this blog to provide an accurate interpretation of the comments which Chris Bosh made in his interview with the Miami Herald, about the city of Toronto being “different”, this is what was written by yours truly:

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Franchise without a face

khandor Says:
July 28th, 2010 at 3:29 pm

dg,

re: “Toronto’s a great place, a fantastic city,” Bosh told the Herald. “It’s a metropolitan area, but you could tell you’re somewhere different. You could feel it, you could look at it, you can smell it. Everything. All your senses tell you you’re somewhere different.”

Whoever perceives this quote … with which I am quite familiar … to be a slag of some kind towards the great City of Toronto, or Ontario, or Canada, in general, might just have a feeling of insecurity regarding how “they” happen to feel about each of these things themselves.

From my perspective, I have no such insecurity.

What Chris Bosh said in those words is precisely true … and a ringing endorsement for the great City of Toronto, which is indeed “different” from other places and cities in the United States of America.

The key word to understand [there] is that to people like Chris Bosh … e.g. like the Great Bill Russell and Charley Rosen and scores of other well known celebrities … “different” does not equate with/mean “inferior”.

In fact … in many cases … “different” can and does equate with/mean:

at least as good, if not straight-up better

that still takes some getting accustomed to

because it simply isn’t THE SAME as home [i.e. what you are used to, whether it's actually "inferior", or not, in comparison].

Readers here should trust that I know very well the “differences” between living and working in Canada and ‘the good ole USA’.

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Kudos to Chris Bosh …

1. For now clarifying the full meaning of his remarks to the Miami Herald, concerning the great City of Toronto;

2. For being a stand-up, straight-up person … of sound character;

and,

3. For completing the initial phase of his pro career, as the most accomplished player in the 15-year history of the Toronto Raptors franchise.

For those who still question the sincerity of Chris Bosh’s efforts, on behalf of the Raptors last season … including Kelly Dwyer, who really should know better, given the amount of basketball he’s watched, over the years … understand that this may say more about the specific way in which “you” happen to look at the world than it does about the character, values and basketball ability of the team’s former Captain. 

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PS. Going forward from here … If you were a high end player, in the NBA, and an unrestricted free agent, why on earth would you now be eager to work for a President/GM who says these types of malicious things, after-the-fact, about a player/person like Chris Bosh, once he’s decided to work for a different employer? 

PPS. If/when the Miami Heat eventually win their multiple NBA championships … with Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh, as key foundation pieces … it will be yet another sad series of days for the Toronto Raptors franchise.

Related:

NBA Free-Agency Breakdown

And, so, it begins …

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Bryan bashes Bosh

Colangelo intoned that Bosh took a long time to return from injury even though he had been medically cleared and that he started thinking ahead to his future to the detriment of the Raptors.

“Despite limited swelling and any excessive damage on an MRI, he felt like he needed to sit for six more games … I’m not even questioning Chris’ injury. I’m telling you he was cleared to play subject to tolerance on his part, and the tolerance just apparently wasn’t there and he chose not to play,” Colangelo said.

“The fact that our season was spiralling downward and we were hoping he’d come back sooner and we were also dealing with a few other things at that point … we were really struggling there.”

Colangelo went on to elaborate:

“Whether he was mentally checked out or just wasn’t quite into it down the stretch, he wasn’t the same guy. I think everybody saw that, but no one wanted to acknowledge it.”

“At the same time, I never felt we were quite in the game (in terms of signing Bosh to a new contract). There was too much out there, too much built up for him to take an easy out here, and he decided to do that.”

Colangelo also said Bosh was hard to build around.

“We tried in vain to put pieces around Chris. Different pieces, different styles. It didn’t work out.”

“No matter what type of player we brought in, it didn’t seem to have the right mix with him as that centrepiece.”

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When Cavaliers owner, Daniel Gilbert, published his now infamous open letter to the team’s fans, in which he took parting shots at the player his organization had reportedly been trying to sign to a maximum contract extension just hours before … what it did was seal the team’s fate in the eyes of other free agents across the NBA, as a poor excuse of the franchise that does not have the level of class required to become a champion in the no-too-distant future.

Despite winning the hearts of a certain segment of the team’s fanbase … i.e. Cavs fans back owner on LeBron letter … future high profile free agents will not be signing on with the franchise in Cleveland, as long as Daniel Gilbert is the owner.

Period.

Well …

Based on the immature way in which Bryan Colangelo has now gone about attacking the character and ability of Chris Bosh, i.e. the best player the Raptors have had since the days of Vince Carter, you can now put the Dinos in a similar category, as long as he is the GM of their team.

When a team’s GM makes utterly ridiculous public statements of this nature, after-the-fact, about a player like Chris Bosh, it sets the franchise back immeasureably, in the eyes of the other first-class players and coaches in the NBA.

The fact is …

Bryan Colangelo is the one who - is taking the easy way out, in this instance, and - has failed to do ‘his job’ properly, since being put in full control of the Toronto Raptors 4.5 seasons ago, and blaming anyone else for the decidedly mediocre results which the team has put forth over this span of time is tangible proof that he should not be considered as one of the best General Managers in the NBA.

None of the best GM’s in the history of this league would have made the P.R. mistake of issuing statements of this type concerning the character and ability of a player who his team was attempting to sign to a maximum contract extension.

Not a single one.

In sharp contrast, what a superior “master craftsman” actually does … in a position of Organizational Leadership … is simply get the job done right with the tools at his disposal.

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PS. As was first said in this space many moons ago … whoever has been “advising” Bryan Colangelo to act the way he has - in terms of his public relations skills - during the course of his tenure in Toronto, should be fired.

Related:

Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo slams Chris Bosh

Approximately 13 months ago, the following question was asked in this space, in a poll:

Where will Andrea Bargnani rank in the Eastern Conference next season, as a Center? … You Make The Call

pertaining to the 2009-2010 season.

As the Raptors complete their seemingly annual summer make-over, under the watch of Bryan Colangelo/GM, in preparation for the 2010-2011 campaign, it is interesting to see how the landscape is shaping up in the Eastern Conference, when evaluating the individual players who might be expected to start at the Center position for their respective teams:

PART 1 - Based On Basketball Acumen

PART 2 - Painting By the Numbers [from hoopdata for the 2009-2010]

From Toronto’s perspective …

The more some things change, the more other things simply stay the same.

After a while it really does begin to nauseate the stomach when official representatives of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment Ltd. [MLSE] are given free license to spread wholesale propoganda to the Raptors’ general fanbase.

To wit:

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Colangelo moving past failed deal

“A year or two out we’re looking at significant cap space assuming we don’t do a lot to disrupt that,” Colangelo said.

“The board is willing to do whatever it takes to win a NBA championship but going into the tax has to be justifiable from both a business and basketball perspective. It would be a pretty hard thing to justify right now unless there was some unbelievable trade available to us.”

That is wise talk if Colangelo sticks to his guns. Struggling with an entertaining, young squad for a year, picking up a high lotto pick in the process and then using the trade exceptions once some expiring contracts are off the books seems like a realistic road back to respectability for the franchise.

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Here’s the specific question which really NEEDS to be put to the team’s GM by the ‘beat’ media that covers this team, on a daily basis, up close and personal:

“How come the word ‘win’ is NEVER EVER followed by the words ‘a NBA championship’ … sometime in the not-too-distant future … when you discuss what, in fact, MLSE is [or, is not] prepared to pay for, concerning the long term objectives of this team?”

After 15 years in existence, any article which appears in a major daily newspaper, or in a reputable on-line source, but fails to have those exact three words linked together in a statement made by the Raptors’ President/GM, concerning their plans for the future, is simply a gigantic waste of time … except, of course, when it comes to ensuring that the pockets of MLSE will be lined with MORE $$$.

Ryan Wolstat … as someone who has enjoyed reading your work, in the past … you’re better than that!