khandor’s sports blog

Heading towards their 61st game of the regular season … this evening against the Los Angeles Lakers, at the Staples Center … the most productive players for the Toronto Raptors have been:

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LEGEND:

KPER = khandor’s Player Effeciency Rating [PTS - (FGA-FGM) - (FTA-FTM) + TReb + Ast + St + BS - TO - PF]

KPER/MP - khandor’s Player Efficiency Rating Per Minute Played 
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If the Raptors were to use their players in an 8-Man rotation which looks like this:

they would qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs without a great deal of difficulty.

The chief reason the Raptors have not used their players in the proper way … at least, thus far … this season is connected with the flawed Basketball Philosophy of their GM, Bryan Colangelo, who has consistently prioritized “offensively” skilled players, when constructing his teams in Phoenix and Toronto, rather than players with an abundance of “defensive and rebounding” skills.

Last night’s game between the Houston Rockets and the Toronto Raptors served as an interesting benchmark for the on-going development of these two teams.

Toronto Raptors 92
HOUSTON ROCKETS 116

Complete Game Summary 

At the moment:

Toronto is 31-28/.525, 2nd in the Atlantic Division, and 5th in the Eastern Conference; while, Houston is 30-29/.508, 3rd in the Southwest Division, and 9th in the Western Conference.

Both teams played last night’s game without several key players in their respective line-ups, due to a variety of physical ailments/injuries:

Toronto
1. Chris Bosh/PF-C, leg injury [day-to-day] 
2. Jose Calderon/PG, arm injury [day-to-day]
3. Hedo Turkoglu/SF, leg injury [incurred last night]

Houston
1. Yao Ming/C, foot injury [expected to return next season]
2. Kyle Lowry/PG, leg injury [day-to-day]
3. Trevor Ariza/SF, hip injury [day-to-day]

Examining the complete rosters for each team:

is an interesting exercise when considering:

i. Chris Bosh/PF-C becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer;

ii. Chris Bosh is originally from Dallas, Texas;

iii. The relative “NBA talent” base on these two rosters;

iv. The “playoff prospects” for these two teams:

A. This season, and
B. Beyond the current season. 

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Toronto is currently in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division, and in 5th place [overall] in the Eastern Conference standings, with a 26-23/.531 W-L record.

After starting out 7-13/.350, with a difficult road-heavy schedule, the Raptors have since played 19-10/.655 basketball, with an easier predominently home-based schedule, that has effectively balanced out their season to-date.

If the Raptors can now manage to play .531 basketball for the remainder of the campaign they will finish with an overall mark of 43-39, or 44-38, which should then be good enough to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs and earn a mid-level seed [i.e. #5 or #6].

In a 1st Round playoff series of this type the Raptors would then be most likely to face one of:

1. The Atlanta Hawks/#4, who were eliminated by the Cleveland Cavaliers [i.e. 2006-2007 NBA Finalists] last season [in the 2nd Round] and the Boston Celtics 2 seasons ago [in Game 7 of the 1st Round];

2. The Boston Celtics/#3, who were 2007-2008 NBA Champions; or,

3. The Orlando Magic/#2, who were 2008-2009 NBA Finalists;

each of which is a team with more experience than Toronto, having qualified for the post-season elimination tournament for the last two seasons.

If the Raptors are indeed able to compete successfully in this type of series … by winning at least 2 [or, possibly, 3] games … the challenge they would then face, in the off season, is trying to re-sign their best player, Chris Bosh, who is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent this summer [July 1, 2010].

The NBA’s in-season trade deadline is now two weeks away [Feb 19], and the most important question on the minds of Raptors fans is:

QUESTION

Should Toronto make a trade, in advance of the deadline, in an effort to further improve their team right now, in hopes of being able to win their 1st Round playoff series this spring and, in the process, demonstrate to Chris Bosh that he will have a legitimate chance to compete for a league championship, in the immediate future, if he decides to renew his contract with the Raptors this off season, as a maximum salaried player? 

ANSWER

No, the Raptors should not make a trade of this sort, in advance of the deadline, in an effort to win their 1st Round playoff series this spring.

RATIONALE

Young teams like the Raptors need to be able to grow together, gradually, over an extended period of years, which involves taking 5 DISTINCT STEPS:

STEP 1. Learning how to make the playoffs, and then losing a 1st Round series;

STEP 2. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making minor player acquisitions, advancing to the 2nd Round;

STEP 3. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making a key player acquisition, advancing to the Conference Finals;

STEP 4. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making another key player acquisition, advancing to the NBA Finals; and,

STEP 5. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making minor player acquisitions, winning the NBA Championship. 

The Raptors’ current roster looks like this:

and is ”good enough”, as is, to compete successfully in a 1st Round playoff series this spring, if their GM and head coach can [i] create the proper atmosphere around their team, and [ii] use their resources effectively.

Stability is what the Raptors need most right now … and, to be able to find out exactly what they’ve got from their current group of players, when it comes to being battle-tested in a 1st Round playoff series against a veteran team like the Hawks, or the Celtics, or the Magic. 

What the Raptors do not need right now is increased Instability … in hopes of blithely skipping over Step 1 with this specific collection of players.

If Chris Bosh is actually the Right Person to lead the Raptors team into the future, then, he will decide on his own that Toronto is the best fit for him, and his long term goals/objectives, both, as a marquee player in the NBA, and as a person.

If Chris Bosh eventually makes the decision to resign with Toronto, the Raptors will then be in a “good” position to attempt to take Step 2 next year, after making minor player acquisitions during this coming off season. 

3. If Chris Bosh is not actually the Right Person to lead the Raptors team into the future, then, he will decide on his own that Toronto is not the best fit for him, and his long term goals/objectives, both, as a marquee player in the NBA, and as a person.

If Chris Bosh eventually makes the decision to sign with another team, then, the Raptors will still be in an “okay” position … i.e. with his vacant salary slot … to once again try to accomplish Step 1, in the gradual process of building a legitimate contending team in this league, over a number of years.

The major problem with this specific scenario is that this is precisely where the team has been before, on more than one occasion, during the Raptors’ first 15 years of existence:

A. With Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady;

B. With Vince Carter and Chris Bosh;

C. With Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani;

and, subsequently,

D. With Andrea Bargnani and DeMar DeRozan; etc., etc., etc.

Each time the Raptors have gotten to this same point before …

they have somehow managed to !@#$%^&* it up, royally, by trying to ”Swing for the fences”, prematurely, and in hopes of skipping Steps along the way.

Hopefully they [i.e. MLSE, Bryan Colangelo, and Jay Triano] have finally learned their lesson and, this time, are finally able to exercise the type of sound basketball judgment it takes to eventually build a legitimate NBA championship contending team in Toronto.

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For the Raptors …

It is time to batten down the hatches.

Let the current season play out.

Allow Chris Bosh to make his own call.

And, sail the ship forward, regardless, on a straight [and well-charted] course. 

In this world, it takes time, to build something truly worthwhile.

… that the 30 gentlemen who, at present, hold the General Manager’s positions, in the NBA, for the 30 best basketball teams in the world are, in fact, the 30 men with ”the best” grasp of what it actually takes to succeed in this league, as a player, then, this specific video clip is posted here expressly for your benefit.

DeJuan Blair [PF, 6-7, 265] was selected in the 37th [overall] position of the 2009 NBA Draft [i.e. No. 7, in the 2nd Round], by R.C. Buford, GM of the San Antonio Spurs … with the 1st of the team’s 2 available picks … which means that all 29 other general managers in the league each had the chance to take him - as an under-sized PF without anterior cruciate ligaments in either knee - and, instead, simply chose to pass him by.

When the Spurs are once again playing in the NBA’s post-season tounament this spring, fans of other teams across the league who repeat, ad naseum, the phrase,

“In ______________ [substitute whatever GM's name you may want that's not R.C. Buford], we trust,”

would do well to keep this simple fact in-mind.

The best GM in the NBA currently resides in San Antonio, Texas … and, it’s by a wide margin.

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If the Raptors [13-17/.433; 2nd, Atlantic] can go into Detroit on Wednesday night and win a game against the Pistons, it will be a big step in the right direction:

Tinted glasses won’t help Raptors’ situation

with a re-match set to occur, in Toronto, on Sunday, December 27.

Home court wins against the Nets, Hornets and Pistons should almost be a given during this stretch of 12 games.

An away court victory, however, against the Pistons, is a barometer of a different sort.

Despite a modest W-L record and having to cope with a string of injuries to key players [i.e. Rip Hamilton/Out; Ben Gordon/Out; and, Tayshaun Prince/Out], Detroit is a solid team:

* 5th in Points Allowed per game [94.7]; and,
* 4th in Rebounding Differential per game [+3.8].

There are 7 key games during this stretch which could go either way:

Game 1, @ Detroit Pistons
Game 2, vs Detroit Pistons
Game 3, vs Charlotte Bobcats
Game 4, vs San Antonio Spurs
Game 5, @ Philadelphia 76ers
Game 6, @ Indiana Pacers
Game 7, @ New York Knicks

and play a siginficant role towards deciding the eventual fate of Chris Bosh, Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani, Jay Triano and Bryan Colangelo with the Toronto Raptors.

Mark them off on your daily calendar, as they play out.

If the Raptors end up going 7 for 7, then you can expect them to challenge for a playoff spot this season.

In three different articles published today, Michael Grange, Dave Feschuk and Ryan Wolstat … each of whom is highly ‘respected’ by this corner of the blogosphere, specifically, for their expertise in their chosen craft … all say, basically, the same thing, concerning the outlook for the immediate future of the Toronto Raptors [11-17/.393; 2nd, Atlantic, 9th, East]:

Judgement day could be coming for Raptors
Raptors’ schedule takes pressure off
Raptors have time to turn it around | Toronto Sun

1. The schedule the team has played, thus far, has placed them squarely behind the 8-ball.  

2. The schedule of upcoming games is about to ease, and allow the team to re-establish its proper equilibrium.

3. This proper equilibrium will be achieved by the posting of a W-L record of either 8-4 or 7-5, over the course of the next 12 games, at which point the approximate half-way mark [i.e. 40 games] of the season will have been reached. 

Given the present state of the team, however …

Is this really an accurate assessment of their current situation?

For each of the last 3 seasons, one of the major areas of difficulty for the Raptors has been managing the expectations placed on the team, in a constructive way, given:

i. The history of the franchise;

ii. Where the franchise wants to go, short and long term [i.e. financially, and in terms of achieving excellence, on and off the court]; and,

iii. How exactly the franchise intends to achieve its stated objectives.

Instead of having negative directional short term goals [like Rob Babcock once had], or blatantly unrealistic short term goals [like much of the fanbase seems to hold, on occasion] … given the team’s history … or simply “swinging for the fences”, repeatedly, whether hit or miss [like Bryan Colangelo & Co. seem to have done, to this point], what the Raptors - and the associated media that follow the team - need to do much better, going forward, is paint a more ACCURATE picture of where exactly the team is, at the moment, relative to the other franchises in the Eastern Conference.

It’s by doing THIS, on a regular basis, rather than looking at the team’s predicament with tinted glasses … whether this tint is ‘positive’ or ‘negative’ … that communication is enhanced, and those whose actual support is necessary to succeed can be made to understand effectively what precisely is expected of them, in a specific situation; and, in return, know what they should then be able to expect back from the person[s] who is [are] communicating with them.

Unlike what many people may choose to think, it is never really about “a glass being either ‘half-full’ or ‘half empty’”, depending on one’s own perspective.

What it is REALLY about, however, is being ACCURATE, or not.

Those who are … over an extended period of time … are, in fact, able to earn the R.E.S.P.E.C.T. of their audience.

Once R.E.S.P.E.C.T. is earned, in this way, then, it can be reciprocated.

Once a state of mutual R.E.S.P.E.C.T. is achieved, in this way … between an audience and a ‘message-provider’ … then, great things are possible … and, indeed, are likely to occur.

However, without being accurate, in the first place, there is little possibility that a state of mutual R.E.S.P.E.C.T. can ever be achieved.

In this specific situation, whether the glass is actually perceived to be “half-empty” or “half-full” becomes completely irrelevant. 

This evening’s game between Toronto [11-16/.407, 2nd Atlantic] and Orlando [18-6/.750, 1st Southeast] marks the first occasion for the “Turkish Michael Jordan” to make a return visit to his old haunt in the Magic Kingdom.

As the former “go-to, clutch time” performer for last season’s squad in Orlando, which played its way to the NBA Finals …

What did it really say about Hedo Turkoglu [at 30 years of age] that he was actually willing to forego the opportunity to win a NBA championship with the Magic this season, in order to sign a $50.0 M contract to play the next 5 seasons for the Toronto Raptors?

Perhaps, that he really does care more about being content and comfortable in his own personal life than he cares about doing what’s necessary to win a NBA championship.

Doing what’s necessary to win a NBA championship?

For example:

* Getting back in defensive transition to prevent easy opposition baskets.

* Defending one’s individual check with consistent tenacity.

* Defending, in a half-court team context, with thorough responsibility.

* Rebounding with an absolute commitment to recover the ball.

* Discriminating readily between an open and a contested shot attempt.

* Physically standing up for a fallen/vulnerable teammate, when need be.

* A willingness to play within an assigned role for the good of the team.

* A willingness to sacrifice oneself [i.e. the physical body, as well as, personal wants and desires] for the benefit of the team.

In their 16 losses this year, Bryan Colangelo’s Raptors have succumbed by margins of:

Considering that the acquisition of Hedo Turkoglu/SF:

Career Stats, Hedo Turkoglu

was one of the two major personnel moves made by the Raptors this past summer …

along with the $50.0 M, 5-yr extension of the ‘rookie contract’ for former No. 1 [overall] Draft Pick, Andrea Bargnani/C:

Career Stats, Andrea Bargnani

it should be of little wonder to the Raptors faithful that Toronto is mired in the lower half of the Eastern Conference, in a quest for the last playoff position.

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Shame on those who actually thought that Otis Smith [GM, Orlando Magic] may not have known exactly what he was talking about …

Orlando Magic GM dissing Hedo Turkoglu?

in his alleged conversations with Kevin Pritchard [GM, Portland Trail Blazers], in the aftermath of Mr. Turkoglu’s decision to sign on with the Raptors, and that Hedo Turkoglu’s priorities might actually include winning a NBA title. 

Caveat Emptor!

With last night’s 16th loss of the season …

Toronto Raptors 95
MIAMI HEAT 115
Game Summary

the most important question for the Toronto Raptors is:

Q1. Should this team, as constructed, be expected to improve substantially over the course of the next 55 games, or not?

A1. Well …

PART ONE

This is what the Eastern Conference standings look like today:

PART TWO

As of Fri Dec 11 2009, this is what the Strength Of Schedule [SOS] looked like for the teams in the East:

PART THREE

Looking at the injury situation for the Raptors and the other teams around them in the standings:

PART FOUR

For all practical intents and purposes:

PART FIVE

As has been said in this corner, since the 2009 NBA Draft took place …

when the Raptors chose not to trade down from the No. 9 position [overall], in an effort to re-invigorate their squad with:

* An additional NBA-calibre player obtained in a trade down

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, which could have been used to acquire an in-coming player like Brandon Jennings, or Terrence Williams, or Earl Clark, or Rodrigue Beaubois, or Taj Gibson

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have bought with their $3.0 M ‘draft voucher’ obtained in their trade with the Miami Heat, which they could have used to acquire a player like Taj Gibson, or DeJuan Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Sam Young, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

or

The upper 2nd Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, if a lower 1st Round Pick was not available, with which they could have acquired an in-coming player like DeJaun Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

and the decisons were made by Bryan Colangelo:

1 To not re-sign Shawn Marion for the dollar amount required to retain his services;

2 To not re-sign their own unrestricted free agents [i.e. Anthony Parker and Joey Graham];

3 To sign Jay Triano [then, interim head coach] to a 3-yr contract extension;

4 To complete the series of trades which then ensued with Orlando, Dallas, Golden State and Milwaukee, in effect, exchanging the following players on the team’s 2008-2009 roster with their corresponding counterparts [i.e. coded by colour] on the current version:

… that actually did little overall to substantially improve the Quality Depth on their team, despite what the fanbase was originally led to believe by the Raptors’ Management Team and assorted NBA “observers” who extolled the influx of supposed “talent” associated with these new additions to the roster …

this year’s Raptors team is no better than a number of other middle-of-the- pack outfits in the Eastern Conference and, in fact, should be expected to struggle to make the playoffs this season.

Those who thought/think that this edition of the Toronto Raptors has UNDER-ACHIEVED, to this point, this season …

were/are fundamentally INCORRECT.

This is precisely WHO and WHAT the Raptors are, and approximately WHERE the 2009-2010 version of their team SHOULD BE expected to finish this season, based on the personnel [i.e. players and coaches] on its roster.

The word “benchmark” has the following definition:

bench·mark (bnchmärk)

As was mentioned yesterday, last night’s contest between Toronto and Milwaukee should have been viewed by each team as a pivotal game, and an early season barometer for where their respective franchise stands in relation to the other middle-of-the-pack squads in the Eastern Conference.

Toronto Raptors 95
MILWAUKEE BUCKS 117
Complete Game Summary

By no means should the Bucks be viewed as an ideal, or even an up-and-coming, franchise in the NBA, at this point in time. Milwaukee has:

- a talented, young Starting-calibre PG
- a defensively stout young Starting-calibre SF-PF 
- an all-around solid Starting-calibre C

who they can build around moving forward …

- a solid, experienced, head coach

who they can build with moving forward … and,

- a dead-weight former “franchise player”

who is no longer a major part of their team with a fairly hefty contract that is due to expire in just 2 years

- a slew of good-but-still-far-from-being-very-good back-up players on their roster

who they can use to fill in the gaps, while hoping to field a highly competitive team, on an annual basis …

and, then, prescious little more than that.

Yet, last night, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, after losing 8 of their previous 9 games … they were still able to dismantle the Raptors on the strength of [a] Brandon Jennings first-half scoring exploits, [b] solid team defense, and [c] individual offensive contributions from a host of different back-up players [e.g. Ersan Ilyasova , 17 pts; Roko Ukic, 17 pts; Carlos Delfino, 14 pts; Luke Ridnour, 15 pts].

Raptors fans who thought that their team’s recent 3-game winning streak was an authentic indication of a “righted ship”, heading toward the upper-middle region of the conference standings, sometime soon, were simply being delusional, once again. 

The road victory over Washington [7-12/.368, 10th/EC] was an overtime decision that could have gone either way at the end of regulation and at the final buzzer when Gilbert Arenas inexplicably missed an open lay-up.

The road victory over Chicago [7-13/.350, 11th/EC] was a relatively meaningless encounter against an opponent that is currently in free-fall … coping with [I] debilitating injuries to 2 key rotation players, both of whom are solid defender/rebounders, at their respective positions, and [II] the loss of their leading scorer from last season [i.e. Ben Gordon, who was not retained, as an UFA, this past summer].

The home victory over Minnesota [3-19/.136; 15th/WC] was secured in the final 90 seconds, when a 3PT shot from Antoine Wright [3FG% = 30.2] found the bottom of the net to push the Raptors’ precarious lead from 2 to 5 points.

On the other hand, last night’s game against the Bucks was a different beast entirely.

The Bucks were looking ahead at their next 3 opponents … i.e. vs the Blazers, vs the Lakers and @ the Cavaliers … and not liking what they saw, at all.

The Bucks are a solid middle-of-the-pack team this season:

[Ratings as of Mon Dec 05, 2009]

In last night’s game, key [revealing?] stats included:

When an opponent converts 3.5% more of its Total Shot Value, creates 5 more Possessions and a Points per Possession differential of 0.168, it indicates that your team was out-classed in a number of different ways.  

1/4 of the way through the regular season schedule, what should now be a legit concern for the Raptors organization, and its fanbase, is what you see when you look at the following two charts; appraising [i] where these two teams were last night: