khandor’s sports blog

Based upon what was said at yesterday’s media day:

as well as a couple of head coach and key player interviews, from the first days of an abbreviated training camp …

it is good to see the Raptors continue to move in a positive direction …

with an emphasis on improved Team Defense and Rebounding and the goal of adding both: i) Jonas Valanciunas, and ii) the team’s next 1st Round Draft Pick [i.e. from the top end of the 2012 NBA Draft] into the mix:

… heading towards what should be a considerably improved 2012-2013 season.

In comparison with some of the other ridiculously optimistic pre-season proclamations uttered during kick-off pressers of previous years …

… realistic talk like this is a much more positive sign for the long-term prospects of the fledgling Raptors.

Thus far, there’s a great deal to like about what Dwane Casey is saying concerning the present state of the Toronto Raptors.

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Raptors set bar as low as it can go

“A lot of games, sad to say, are going to be practices,” Casey said.

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The fact is …

i. Prior to any sort of “re-build” happening there must have been some sort of legitimate “build” otherwise the former is little more than a simple mirage.

ii. Defense is the backbone of any legitimate championship calibre pro sports franchise.

iii. Some form of legitimate “pain” precedes any form of real “growth” in this world.

Ed Stefanski is an established GM in the NBA.

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Raptors adding Stefanski to front office

The Toronto Raptors are finalizing an agreement with former Philadelphia 76ers general manager Ed Stefanski to take over as the franchise’s executive vice president of basketball operations, league sources told Yahoo! Sports.

Stefanski, who was fired as the 76ers’ GM a week ago, will report to Raptors president-GM Bryan Colangelo, who will still have final say on basketball matters. Stefanski will ultimately replace Masai Ujiri, who left Toronto to become the Denver Nuggets GM last year.

Colangelo conducted a lengthy search and ultimately targeted Stefanski in recent weeks for the job. Former New Orleans Hornets GM Jeff Bower was the runner-up. San Antonio Spurs assistant GM Dennis Lindsey had been a strong candidate, too.

By adding Stefanski and possibly another assistant GM and scouts, the Raptors are restructuring their player personnel department. After missing the playoffs for three straight seasons, Colangelo and new coach Dwane Casey are working with two-year contracts.

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In conjunction with the arrival of Dwane Casey [their new head coach] this off season, and Jonas Valanciunas’ [a promising young Center/No. 5 Pick in the 2011 NBA Draft] expected addition next year, if the Raptors can find their way into the upper half of the 2012 NBA Draft Lottery … either: [i] via trade, or [ii] through another season’s worth of inept on-court performance … there is – once again – no valid reason, whatsoever, for this franchise to be a perennial treadmill team.

According to published reports last week … the three leading candidates to fill the newly ‘created’ GM-only position in the Raptors basketball organization are said to be Ed Stefanski, Dennis Lindsey and Jeff Bower.

Amidst these reports, however, it has also been suggested that Bryan Colangelo intends to maintain “final say” on all basketball-related matters, as the Raptors’ President and the former holder of both of these two positions.

If this is indeed the case, then, according to yours truly, it will most likely be the case that each of the three people currently atop the Raptors’ wish list to fill this present vacancy will decline the opportunity to join Toronto’s team, in favour of staying in their current jobs, or moving to a different organization, altogether, in some other capacity … and the person who will eventually fulfill this role in Toronto will be someone else that has yet to be identified publicly, since Stefanski, Lindsey and Bower do not seem to be the type who would be interested in playing ’2nd fiddle’ for the Raptors.

Kudos to Arsenalist, for doing a good job …

Reviewing Bryan Colangelo’s trades, Part I, Part II, and Part III

Back in the summer of 2006, yours truly first suggested that the newly hired President/GM for the Raptors would eventually prove himself to be little more than an “average” practicioner, in this role for Toronto.

Some 5 years later …

It is now highly doubtful that a fair-minded person could somehow come to a different conclusion than exactly this, based upon the quality of his actual performance for the Raptors, since that point in time.

When Kris Humphries was strictly a back-up front-court player for the Raptors [i.e. in 2006-2007, 2007-2008 and 2008-2009] … and, then, needlessly traded away in a multi-team package deal to acquire Hedo Turkoglu [i.e. see A and B for further details] … there were very few – if any – other voices in the on-line hoops community extolling his virtues, as a solid future starting-calibre Power Forward in the NBA, if afforded a legitimate opportunity to ply his trade properly. Some 3-5 years later, however …

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Free Agency: Big Names

Who I’d pursue

• Kris Humphries [#3]. How many people heard of him before this? Well, here at the Wages of Wins network, all of us. That’s because he’s been surprisingly productive. Another great value-for-your-dollar player, he could be a great asset to any team, especially one lacking rebounders.

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it is gratifying to see that this corner’s original assessment of Kris Humphries’ actual basketball talent … made well in advance of others – i.e. including both stats gurus [!] and non stats-based NBA observers – was indeed highly accurate, while the vast majority of naysayers, at the time, have now been proven wrong.

The fact is …

While there is little-to-no “competitive advantage” generated by player “evaluations” that are exclusively post facto, based on simple comparative stats analysis, there can be a great deal of “competitive advantage” generated by taking careful note of the specific opinions [i.e. in the form of "evaluations" AND "projections"] offered by someone who legitimately has the ability to make an accurate assessment of a player’s actual basketball ability as much as 3-5 years in advance.

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PS. Cheers, “yertu damkule.”

As a GM with a tremendous amount of “media savvy” it is truly amazing just how frequently Bryan Coalngelo makes public statements that he has absolutely no business saying.

To wit:

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Feschuk: Colangelo gambles as Raptors fans grimace

As for Valanciunas, whether you like his projections or not — and the number-crunching nerds in the analytics world will have you believe he’s an efficient keeper — you had to give Colangelo a certain kind of credit for calling his name. The GM, who is hyperaware of what’s said and written about his club, had to know it wouldn’t be a popular pick. He had to know it might not be a pick that helps him earn the third-year guarantee on his current deal. He made the pick all the same.

He also acknowledged the “angst” of the populace, this before he shared the reaction he and his Toronto cohorts had been receiving from their counterparts in NBA draft rooms.

“Everybody is saying . . . ‘Excellent pick. Perhaps the best pick in the draft,’” Colangelo said. “This is a solid pick. Trust me.”

Three seasons out of the playoffs and counting, Colangelo has to know that’s a difficult thing to ask of the Air Canada Centre’s hoop-loving customers. He also has to know that, even if his words on Thursday night one day ring true, he might not be around to take the credit.

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“Trust me”?

Hmmm …

The fact is:

1. As a collective, General Managers in the NBA make some of the most inaccurate assessments of future players in the league;

2. What other GMs actually think about the “quality” of your team’s selection in a Draft is irrelevant;

3. Bryan Colangelo does not have an outstanding record of achievement when it comes to making an accurate assessment of which drafted players are most likely to develop into “stars” in the NBA and which ones are not.

In all likelihood, the Raptors did not chose Jonas Valanciunas with the No. 5Selection of the 2011NBA Draft because he was the BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE but, rather, because the team’sbasketball brain-trust:

i. Thinks he will become the best player, sometime down-the-road;

ii. Who also happens to play the Center position, which is the specificposition where they believe their team is currently the most deficient.

Unfortunately, as a general rule of thumb, drafting by “positional need” is NOT the best way to build a championship-calibre team in the NBA.

Yesterday, Dwane Casey was named the new head coach for the Toronto Raptors.

CASEY’S HEAD COACH EXPERIENCE WITH MINNESOTA

MINNESOTA’S PERFORMANCE PRE-, DURING, AND POST- CASEY

According to these rudimentary facts, the Raptors have hired a solid defensive-minded basketball coach who, over a period of years:

1. Is likely to improve their overall team defense;

and,

2. Is unlikely to perform as a Transformational Coach and take their team into the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference … unless, of course, their GM [i.e. Bryan Colangelo] also does a much better job of drafting elite level players with outstanding defensive ability than he has done to this point in his career.

Related:

Raptors reveal ‘Part 1′ of new ‘Winning Plan’

Raptors reveal ‘Part 2′ of new ‘Winning Plan’

According to recently published reports, the Toronto Raptors are either:

A. Actively in the running to acquire Derrick Williams [SF-PF], via trade with the Minnesota Timberwolves [who currently hold the rights to the No. 2 [overall] Selection in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery], in exchange for DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF];

or,

B. Not actively in the running to acquire Derrick Williams, since DeMar DeRozan is not actually being offerred to Minnesota in a trade package involving the Timberwolves’ rights to the No. 2 Selection in this year’s NBA Draft Lottery.

Which of these different reports is, in fact, accurate is of little consequence to yours truly.

What is pertinent, however, is whether or not an authentic “top notch” GM in the NBA would actually make this deal, on behalf of the Toronto Raptors, if the Timberwolves’ GM [i.e. David Kahn] is, in fact, willing to go for it. 

Derrick Williams is 20 years of age, 6-7, 248 and plays the game like this:

DeMar DeRozan is 22 years of age [as of August], 6-7, 220 and plays the game like this:

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FWIW …

According to this corner:

1. Jerry West, RC Buford, Pat Riley, Danny Ainge, Joe Dumars, and Mitch Kupchak are in the small group of ‘top notch’ GMs in the NBA today;

2. Demar DeRozan is similar to Vince Carter [OG-SF, 6-6, 220], while Derrick Williams is similar to Paul Pierce [SF, 6-7, 235]; and,

3. The correct answer to this poll question is an unequivocal,

“Yes, indeed … in less than a single heart-beat.”