khandor’s sports blog

If you’ve taken the time to read a good portion of what’s been published on this blog to-date, then, you are already familiar with a few simple “facts” about the game of basketball:

[for example]

- it is comprised of 3 distinct main phases, i.e. Defense, Rebounding and Offense

- the 1 of these 3 phases which is the least well-understood, by “fans” and other so-called “expert observers” is Rebounding … followed by Defense … primarily, due to its “central” role and the way it influences the character of an elite level team

- basketball is, fundamentally, a “team” game … in which major success and failure [i.e. winning and losing the championship] are determined, in large part, by the highly specific strengths and weaknesses of the “individual” players and their ability to work “in concert” against a particular opponent

- while statistics, in general, are a terrific tool to help one understand how the game actually works, in isolation, they are not a wholly accurate reflection of reality and, at all times, need to be evaluated critically in the appropriate context

- an examination of highly specific anecdotal evidence is a gateway to developing an accurate understanding of the way in which a championship-winning team operates that is separate and distinct from its competition 

- putting an elite level team together properly is akin to “composing a virtuoso work of art” … moreso, than simplistically “painting by the numbers”

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To wit:

[this is the specific comment which was just submitted by yours truly at the Wages of Wins Journal]

Another Look at Team USA in 2010

Hmmm …

If someone could take the time to explain the reason the previous comment which I left in this thread was removed, it would be appreciated.

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In the interim, let’s try again.

It is a mistake in basketball judgment to think that keeping the 12 players with the highest WP48 numbers is necessarily the best way to construct a championship-winning basketball “team”.

Just because Gerald Wallace’s WP48 number … which [in fact] “fails to reflect a picture of reality” [according to a respected commentor [sic] on this site like Tom Mandel] … is substantially higher than Rudy Gay’s does not mean that simply “replacing Gay with Wallace” is the better way to go, in this case, i.e. with this specific group of players, their expected opposition, and the relatively large group of [at least, somewhat redundant] PG’s still on the active roster [i.e. Curry, Billups, Rondo, Rose and Westbrook], when compared with the sheer number of wing players [i.e. combo OG/SF/PF] with good size, strength, relative quickness – at their respective positions – and the ability to: i. defend, ii. rebound, iii. shoot the ball efficiently from distance, and iv. be high volume scorers, e.g. like Iguodala, Gay and Durant].

When you dissect how a championship-winning team is actually put together, what you will find is that rarely – if ever – is it simply a conglomeration of the 12 players with the highest available WP48 numbers [e.g. Was Charles Barkley a member of the 1984 team? or, Was Isiah Thomas a member of the original Dream Team?] And, the exact reasons for this are rarely – if ever – rooted in the way these specific players performed in lead-up public scrimmage situations.

Unfortunately, numeric-based analysis of basketball which reads like this is what can create a poor image overall for “stats” gurus, in the eyes of elite level coaches the world over.

[Hopefully this comment meets with your approval.]

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Enjoy!

Approximately 13 months ago, the following question was asked in this space, in a poll:

Where will Andrea Bargnani rank in the Eastern Conference next season, as a Center? … You Make The Call

pertaining to the 2009-2010 season.

As the Raptors complete their seemingly annual summer make-over, under the watch of Bryan Colangelo/GM, in preparation for the 2010-2011 campaign, it is interesting to see how the landscape is shaping up in the Eastern Conference, when evaluating the individual players who might be expected to start at the Center position for their respective teams:

PART 1 – Based On Basketball Acumen

PART 2 - Painting By the Numbers [from hoopdata for the 2009-2010]

From Toronto’s perspective …

The more some things change, the more other things simply stay the same.

While it might be true that Darko Milicic is properly described as being a great many different things … including, possibly, the biggest bust in the last 10 years of the NBA Draft … it should also be duly noted that he is clearly not one of these, as well:

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For lack of a few crucial stops, Wolves lose 13th straight

Though the Wolves have won only one game since the 7-foot Serbian arrived in mid-February, Rambis said he has seen flashes of a player so promising seven years ago, when he was drafted ahead of [Chris] Bosh, Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade.

“And I think he can be a lot better,” Rambis said. “As he gets in better shape and gets more comfortable and more confident, you’ll see him stretch his game.”

In fact, he’s already done that offensively. Milicic scored a season-high 16 points against the Lakers last Friday, and appeared to be more confident about taking good shots.

“The guys are learning how to use him,” Rambis said. “I’ve told him, whenever he’s comfortable, I’m OK with him shooting inside, outside, [from the] elbow, long distance. But he has to have the confidence to do that.”

For Milicic, who is still only 24 years old despite being a seven-year NBA veteran, it’s a matter of playing the way he was taught back in Serbia.

“I’m just trying to relax. I got used to playing this American way of running crazy, playing too fast. I’ve got to slow it down,” Milicic said. “When I came [to the U.S.], I stopped playing basketball the way I know how to play. Playing too fast, running like chickens without heads.”

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If he can successfully return to the roots of his “multi-headed” individual game … by learning how to slow down and play within the confines of the Triangle Offense, let’s say, with Ricky Rubio/PG, at the helm, beside Al Jefferson/PF, Kevin Love/PF, Corey Brewer/OG-SF and the T-wolves upcoming 2010 Lottery Selection …

Is there really any good reason to believe that Darko Milicic, at the still relatively tender age of 24, 

is somehow incapable of putting up “15 and 8″, on a game-to-game basis …

against the other “25 and under” starting calibre Centers, in the NBA today

EASTERN CONFERENCE		WESTERN CONFERENCE
ATLANTIC		NORTHWEST
Boston	Perkins, K [25]	Denver	Petro, J [24]
Toronto	Bargnani, A [24]	Utah	Fesenko, K [23]
New York	–	Oklahoma City	Ibaka, S [20]
Philadelphia	Speights, M [22]	Portland	Oden, G [21]
New Jersey	Lopez, B [21]	Minnesota	Milicic, D [24]
CENTRAL		PACIFIC
Cleveland	–	LA Lakers	Bynum, A [22]
Milwaukee	Bogut, A [25]	Phoenix	Lopez, R [21]
Chicago	Noah, J [25]	LA Clippers	Jordan, D [21]
Indiana	Hibbert, R [23]	Sacramento	Hawes, S [21]
Detroit	–	Golden State	Biedrins, A [23]
SOUTHEAST		SOUTHWEST
Orlando	Howard, D [24]	Dallas	–
Atlanta	Horford, A [24]	San Antonio	–
Miami	–	Memphis	Gasol, M [25]
Charlotte	–	Houston	–
Washington	Blatche, A [25]	New Orleans	–

… over the course of the next several seasons?

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In what group would you place Darko Milicic amongst the other "25 and under" starting calibre Centers in the NBA today?

• 1-5
• 6-10
• 11-15
• 16-21

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When you first heard the news that New Jersey had agreed to trade Vince Carter [SF-OG] and Ryan Anderson [PF] to Orlando … in exchange for 3 pretty good but not great players, i.e. Courtney Lee [OG], Rafer Alston [PG], Tony Battie [PF-C] … did the thought occur to you that the Nets’ managerial tandem of Rod Thorn & Kiki Vandeweghe MUST know something that just isn’t common knowledge, yet? Or, perhaps, have an Ace of sorts, hidden up their collective sleeve?

As has been mentioned in this space before …

Yours truly has a great deal of confidence in the ability of specific GM’s across the NBA to assess with a fairly high degree of accuracy the talent level of elite players in this league: 

NJ Nets rookie takes over: Terrence Williams may be the Next Big Thing
Terrence Williams — for reasons that elude logic — looks like the Nets’ best player two weeks before camp opens.

Nobody wants to say this aloud for print, but they’ll go this far:

“He’s playing really well – a freak of nature athletically,” Keyon Dooling said yesterday. “In the moments I’ve watched, he’s really unique. What you don’t see from the great athletes is a high basketball IQ. But he has a nice floor game – a really nice floor game.”

Then there’s this from Mr. Reticence: “He’s really good. I worked with him some, watched him some, and I’m very impressed,” L-Frank said.

Both sounded as though they were looking over their shoulders, waiting for someone to jam a towel down their throats. Nobody wants to christen any rookie as The Next Big Thing, but everyone else we spoke to claims that T-Will the Thrill has absolutely torn up the gym.

Frank downshifted into omigod-let’s-douse-that-now speech:

“Winning the pickup game award isn’t necessarily a guarantee of success – Rodney Buford won it,” the coach said. “I think Terrence will be a very good player, but it’s early to make an evaluation. The guys like playing with him, because he’s a willing and capable passer – that’s human nature. But many young guys try to establish themselves by scoring; Terrence just makes the right plays and delivers the ball in the right position, which ingratiates you with teammates.”

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one of which happens to reside in New Jersey.

Does that mean these management teams never ever make a serious mistake when acquiring or releasing players for their franchise?

No, it does not.

What it does mean, though, is that … the individuals in charge of those specific organizations know exactly what it takes to put a solid team on the floor, and succeed in doing just that, on a consistent basis, without ever attempting to pull the wool over their fans eyes, regarding the realistic prospects for their team, in a given season … while always keeping a steady eye towards the gradual process involved with building a championship calibre team.

Those who think the following roster of players is going to be atrocious this season:

are making a serious in judgment … even if the Nets do happen to miss the playoffs, again.

There’s a definite plan in place with this franchise, as far as their player personnel is concerned, which now includes future stalwarts at four of the following five positions:

PG – Devin Harris
OG – Courtney Lee
SF – Terrence Williams
PF – ?
C – Brook Lopez 

It says here that Brook Lopez [C] will develop into one of the best Centers in the NBA during the next few seasons, at the heart of their line-up … with a solid core of talented athletic players around him … like D-Harris, C-Lee, CDR [?] and T-Will-The-Thrill, at their respective positions … to form a group that is going to be able to Rebound, Defend and Share the Ball, as a good team should.

It seems as though a certain segment within Raptorville is, once again, suffering from grotesque “delusions of grandeur”, regarding the actual ability and hoped for improvement of Andrea Bargnani [C, 7-0, 250, 2006 No. 1 Overall Selection] this off-season.

i.e. According to Doug Smith, in a segment on PrimeTime Sports [FAN590] yesterday, a legitimate case can be made that Bargnani might qualify as the 2nd Best Center in the Eastern Conference [EC] over the course of the 2009-2010 season.

The following list contains the names of the 15 Centers expected to play this position for their current teams, in the EC next season:

Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland Cavaliers [1]
Kendric Perkins, Boston Celtics [2]
Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic [3]
Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks [4]
Jermaine O’Neal, Miami Heat [5]
Samuel Dalembert, Philadelphia 76ers [6]
Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls [7]
Rasheed Wallace, Detroit Pistons [8]
Jeff Foster, Indiana Pacers [9]
Emeka Okafor, Charlotte Bobcats [10]
Brook Lopez, New Jersey Nets [11]
Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee Bucks [12]
Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors [13]
David Lee, New York Knicks [14]
Brendan Haywood, Washington [15]

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Although yours truly usually finds very little to agree upon with host Bob McCown that is not the case in this instance.

According to these eyes, whoever happens to agree with Doug Smith, in this regard, is quite likely to be suffering from a form of Post-Concussion Syndrome … as there are, at least, 7 players who should be listed ahead of Il Mago on a depth chart of this sort looking forward just 1 season.

Coming out of the annual All-Star Break and heading toward this week’s Trade Deadline  [Feb 19, 3:00 PM] … as different trade rumours swirl about the NBA [on-line & elsewhere] … it can be instructive to assess where certain marquee players rank amongst their brethren, at the specific position[s] they play the best.

When considering Big Men [i.e. Centers/C and Power Forwards/PF], it is also imperative to understand what their fundamental role is within the NBA game and what qualities are the most important for them to exhibit on a consistent basis, if their respective team’s are going to have a legitimate chance to win a League Championship, now or in the not-too-distant future.

Big Man Ranking Criteria

* Leadership
* Rebounding [which includes: i. Defensive; ii. Offense]
* Team Defense [which includes: i. Interior Rotations; ii. Perimeter Rotations; iii. Execution of Pick & Roll Techniques; iv. Transition Effectiveness; v. Shot blocking off the ball; Switching off the ball]
* Low-Mid Post Scoring
* Passing Effectiveness
* Individual Low-Mid Post Defense [which includes Shot blocking on the ball]
* Individual Perimeter Defense
* Screening Effectiveness
* Picking Effectiveness
* Perimeter Scoring
* Offensive Transition
* Physical Traits: i. Quickness; ii. Agility; iii. Explosive Power; iv. Size & Strength
* Psycho-Emotional Traits: i. Stability; ii. Intelligence; iii. Intensity; iv. Toughness 

These are the current rankings, according to this corner:

Use the “comments” section to provide your feedback.

FINAL SCORE: Raptors 107, Nets 106
Game Info

As was indicated in this space yesterday …

* This game had the makings of a hum-dinger
* If the Raptors were going to win, Jermaine O’Neal would need to substantially out-perform Josh Boone

… both of which happened last night.

Specific aspects of this game which produced a much needed victory for the Raptors, included:

* The production at the Point Guard position from the tandem of Jose Calderon + Anthony Parker, in comparison with Devin Harris & Keyon Dooling [see the Box Score], which allowed the Raptors to keep pace with the Nets throughout the game

* Jay Triano’s sound decision to remove Bargnani from the game, in favour of Jermaine O’Neal, at the 7:38 mark of the 3rd quarter … AND, then, to not re-insert Bargnani back into the game until the 2:49 mark of the 4th Quarter … which improved the Raptors’ Pick & Roll/Pop Defense immeasurably for that stretch of 16:49 … AND, then, to remove Bargnani from the game, permanently, in favour of Jamario Moon, at the 2:19 mark of the 4th Quarter … which effectively eliminated the Nets ability to easily off-set Bargnani’s skill set with another serviceable BIG, like Ryan Anderson [i.e. an under-sized PF], for the bulk of the 2nd half 

* Devin Harris’ WIDE OPEN, flat out, miss from just 15 feet away, on the final possession of the game

* Harris’ inability to SEE the mis-match which was presented to him on the Nets’ final possession with Wince Carter isolated at the TOTK vs Chris Bosh

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In the NBA, when a game is decided on the outcome of the final possession, it is most often the case that:

* One team’s good fortune combines with the other’s bad … as these respective teams more-or-less played each other to an effective stand-off, in that specific contest

* Both teams do a solid job of responding effectively to the other’s mis-match opportunities which are created by the circumstances in this specific game and the use of each team’s personnel by their coaching staff

* The actual margin of victory hinges on just one good or bad decision by the player with the ball in his hands, at the time, and/or his ability to make the shot which is presented to him by the defense … using whichever scheme it sees fit … with the game on the line.

The Raptors and the Nets, as constructed, are two Middle-of-the-Pack teams, in the Eastern Conference, each of which is capable of playing .500 basketball this season and with very little separation between them.

Now that the Raptors [18-28] have finally discovered what their best available line-up is, tonight’s match-up vs New Jersey [20-25] fits into the category of a benchmark game for the Dinos.

If the Raptors are going to make a belated run for the 8th playoff spot in the EC, they will need to get games like this one, on the road versus one of the five teams ahead of them in the standings, i.e. Milwaukee, New Jersey, New York, Charlotte and Chicago.

Q1. Where do they have an individual match-up advantage vs New Jersey?
A1. Only in the section with the bolded letters listed above. 

If O’Neal dramatically out-performs Josh Boone, the Raptors can win this game going away.

If not … it will be the Nets that prevail in what should be a hum-dinger of a contest.

Wagering Line: NETS +2/-105

Chris Douglas-Roberts may, at last, have turned a corner in the eyes of Lawrence Frank.

After playing very little during the Nets [20-25/.444, 3rd Atlantic, 9th EC] first 43 games this season, Coach Frank has seen fit to use CDR in each of their last 2 games:

GAME 2 – Box Score; Full Play-By-Play [Loss at OKC, Jan 26]
GAME 1 – Box Score; Full Play-By-Play [Win at MEM, Jan 24]

… in most interesting ways, and with specific results.

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GAME 1

During his 8:06 of action, when CDR was used as a Wing player by Coach Frank:

… and these specific 5-Man Units for the Nets effectively held their ground versus the Grizzlies in the 2nd Quarter.

This is CDR’s individual stat line from this game:

GAME 2

During the final 7:57 of last night’s game vs the Thunder, when CDR [6-7, 215] was used as the Nets’ Point Guard:

… and these respective 5-Man Units, led by CDR [+21], reduced a 30-pt deficit for the Nets [58-88] to a 7-pt margin [82-89], with 1:03 left to play, at which point Scott Brooks was forced to re-insert Kevin Durant, in order to close out the game for the Thunder at the FT Line. 

This is CDR’s individual stat line from this game:

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One of the things which this corner of the blogosphere specializes in is Being Ahead-of-the-Pack when it comes to such things as assessing accurately the authentic abilities of various NBA players who are still largely under-the-radar, to this point in their careers.

As was mentioned in this space during the pre-season, astute NBA observers should expect CDR to have a long and highly productive career in this league, given his size, overall athleticism, skill set, versatility, competitiveness, Basketball IQ, etc..

NBA games can change dramatically depending upon the substitutions a team makes, or not, and the combination of players it has on the court, at any point in time, versus an opponent’s specific 5-Man Unit.

Such was the case last night when the Raptors faced the Nets.

At the 05:00 mark of the 3rd Quarter, New Jersey led Toronto by a single point, 58-57, when the following series of substitutions were made for each team:

When the bleeding finally stopped for the Raptors, at the 02:44 mark of the 4th period, the Nets had established a 14-point margin that eventually proved to be insurmountable for the home team.

Closeer examination of these events reveals a number of interesting things about the mechanics of last night’s contest.

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After relinquishing the lead to the Raptors’ 5-Man Unit of …

Calderon-Kapono-Moon-Bargnani-Bosh,

the Nets made their first key substitution at the 03:25 mark of the 3rd Q, when they replaced Harris/PG & Simmons/SF with Dooling and Hassell, respectively, although they were trailing by 4 points [60-64], at the time.

What this substitution did was change The End of the 3rd Quarter/Beginning of the 4th Quarter Match-ups for each of the teams at the PG position.

Despite playing without their starting PG, the Nets were able to stay within striking distance of the Raptors, while buying valuable rest time for Harris to begin the 4th Quarter versus Ukic, the back-up PG for the Raptors.

Conversely, the Raptors made their first key substitution at the 02:32 of the 3rd Quarter when they replaced Kapono/OG and Bosh/C with Parker & Graham, respectively, while leading the Nets by 6 points, 60-66.

What this substitution did was create a most unusual line-up for Toronto that has rarely, if ever, seen the court this season [either under Sam Mitchell or Jay Triano]:

Calderon-Parker-Moon-Graham-Bargnani

It was this unit which failed to open up a wider working margin for the Raptors versus the Nets, playing without Harris.

Then, at the 3rd Quarter interval, was when both teams made their second set of key substitutions:

New Jersey … used Harris & Dooling together, in conjunction with Lopez, Anderson & Hassell; while resting Carter.

Toronto … replaced Calderon with Ukic, and kept their other four players [who finished the 3rd Quarter] on the court.

What these two sets of subs did was:

1. Prevent the Raptors from establishing a wider working margin over the Nets, while New Jersey was buying rest time for Carter;

2. Establish Harris [who scored the first 5 points of the quarter playing versus the Raptors' back-up PG] as the Offensive Focus for the Nets during this segment of the game.

The third key substitution for the Nets was made at the 06:21 mark of the 4th Quarter when they replaced Dooling/OG with Carter, who was rested for the stretch run, after the Nets had already regained the lead from the Raptors, primarily, on the back of Harris and Lopez.

The third key susbstitution for the Raptors was made at the 05:39 mark of the 4th Quarter when they replaced Moon/SF & O’Neal/C with Graham/SF & Bargnani/PF, respectively, shifted Bosh to the Center position, in conjunction with Calderon and Kapono [who played all 12 minutes of the 4th Quarter]. 

It was this line-up that was outscored 10-2 by the Nets between the 05:39 and 03:26 marks of the 4th Quarter, which allowed New Jersey to establish a 10 point lead on the Raptors, 84-74.

The fourth key substitution for the Raptors was at the 03:26 mark of the 4th Quarter when Toronto replaced Bargnani/PF & Graham/SF with O’Neal & Moon, respectively, after which the Nets increased their lead to 14 points, 88-74.

In fact, it was during these two specific segments of the game that the following  16 Key Possession Outcomes occurred and determined the eventual Winner/Loser of this match-up:

i.e. New Jersey converted 6 of their 8 Possessions [75.0%] into 14 points; while Toronto converted only 1 of their 8 Possessions [12.5 %] into 2 points. 

Of particular interest to this corner are the following facts:

* The Raptors LOST the Battle of the Boards last night, 38 to 54. 

* During these 8 Possessions the Raptors’ output consisted of:

• 2 Missed J3′s by Kapono
  2 Missed Layup/Tap-in Attempts by Bosh
  2 Turnovers by Calderon
  1 Set of 2 Missed FT’s by O’Neal
  1 Set of 2 Made FT’s by Calderon

* During these two key segments of the game, the Raptors chose to ignore the line-up they used last week versus the Pacers to close out their first victory under Jay Triano, i.e. Calderon-Moon-Graham-Bosh-O’Neal, that is by far the best REBOUNDING & Team Defense 5-Man Unit which Toronto can put on the floor.

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In general …

How a team uses its substitutes, at important moments within a specific NBA game, can be a crucial factor toward determining the eventual Winner/Loser of that contest.

Such was the case last night, at the ACC, when the Raptors forgot just how vital REBOUNDING & Team Defense are … especially, during the 4th Quarter of a close game, in this league, versus a dangerous opponent.